Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Dollar
By:
Nikmatul Chasanah
(140431603542, Off NN)
Malang State University
Faculty of Economics
Department of Economic Development
Abstrack
The economy can not be sparated from the currency exchange rate in effect on
a country. The value of the currency exchange rate from fluctuating in wich
every movement that occurs impact on the countrys economy especially in
Indonesia. The weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar and reap much
of an impact. One of which is the rising prices of foodstuffs imported from
abroad changes in this currency exchange rate is caused by several factors
including the level of exports, investment and rupiah exchange rate of the
dollar it self.
Keywords : national economy, rupiah, dollar
1. Introduction
1.1 Background
Money is an important tool for the economic life. Money is a legitimate tool
as payment in buying or selling both locally and internationally. And each country
must have its own currency whose value is not the same between the currency of
one country to another. For that their exchange rates or exchange rates agreed upon
between the two countries to exchange the currency of each country.
Every time the value of the exchange rate can fluctuate as a result of factors
that influence the impact on the national economy. Indonesia as a country that is
engaged in economic activities both nationally and internationally to be affected by
the currency exchange rate changes. In a few weeks ago the Indonesian currency
exchange rate against the US dollar took a big hit. But this time the rupiah
continued to strengthen against the US dollar. The US dollar is the benchmark
currency across the world despite the fact that there is still a currency that is
stronger than the US dollar are the euro (EUR), which is used almost in most
countries in Europe and the British Pound (GBP), which is the currency of the
country of Queen Elizabeth, England. Still, the US dollar became the main
benchmark currency of the world and a major benchmark in the world of money
exchange.
Weakening or strengthening of the rupiah currency exchange rates in
particular have various impacts on the economy of Indonesia . Therefore the author
writing a paper entitled The Impact of The National Economy Over The
Weakening of Rupiah Against The Dollar.
1.2 Problem Formulation
Based on the background that has been described , can be formulated
formulation of the problem as follows.
1.2.1
1.2.2
1.2.3
How is the impact of the weakening exchange rate of the rupiah against
the US dollar ?
1.3.2
1.3.3
economic Development
Emil Salim revealed that economic developments in Indonesia since 1945 like
gandul hours. This indicates, as long as this state of Indonesia has experienced several
changes in the economic system. At the beginning of the Indonesian state leads to the
socialist direction. However, with the development that exists then the system adopted by
Indonesia can be reversed, ie move the bow to liberal.
The concept or existing economic system in Indonesia from 1945 until 1966 , has
been progressing as much as three stages in economic policy. In the period 1995 to 1959 ,
Indonesia is leading to a mixture of liberalism and socialism .
In 1950 and in 1959 , the existing economic system in Indonesia is more directed
toward liberal economics. With this liberal economy, it can provide an opportunity for the
community to develop the economy without a lot of intervention from the state. But in
1959, the system or the concept of the existing economy in Indonesia is changing again
towards socialism. Socialism adopted by Indonesia in the form sosislisme that have a
national pattern. Changes in the economy concept is characterized by three symptoms,
namely regarding government intervention in economic life, the development of StateOwned Enterprises fostering cooperatives and their economic empowerment.
In 1957, the Indonesian government nationalized the foreign companies were
replaced by State-Owned Enterprises, because the Indonesian government felt that the
national private sector has not been able to take over the activities of foreign business.
2.1.2
Gross Gross Domestic Product (GDP ) of Indonesia grew from 4.74 percent to 5:04 per
cent ( yoy ) in the quarter 4/2015 . Growth is considered primarily driven by the smooth
state spending , particularly related to infrastructure development . The news was
welcomed by market players in Indonesia , but some parties still feel the need to see
further confirmation to determine whether the Indonesian economy has indeed recovered .
b. Inflation Recorded Higher
After a decline during the fourth quarter 2015 , Indonesia's inflation rose again in January .
Central Statistics Agency ( BPS ) recorded inflation y - o - y increase from 3:35 to 4:14
percent percent , although inflation m- o - m down slightly from 0.96 per cent to 0:51
percent
The increase in inflation was mainly driven by the increase in the price index in the
foodstuff ; food, beverages , cigarettes and tobacco ; and housing, water , electricity , gas ,
and fuel . Accordingly, core inflation that excludes volatile prices of goods recorded fell
from 3.95 percent to 3.62 percent .
c. Consumers More Optimistic
Apart from the increase in the inflation rate, consumers in Indonesia seems to still remain
optimistic, as reflected in the Consumer Confidence Index increased for the fourth
consecutive time in January.
Figures survey index has been above 100, indicating the views of consumers who tend to
be more optimistic about current economic conditions compared to six months ago.
d. Prediction Rupiah Until End of February 2016
The movement of the rupiah in the period between January 18 to 29 , 2016 to have
strengthened , even briefly touched 13.558 . However , in general the amount is still
trading in a range 13,600an . Denganprediksi correspondingly earlier , the penetration level
of 13.691 downwardly happened last week allows the strengthening rupiah against the
dollar to 13.457 . Therefore , until the end of February , the currency symbol is Garuda
will likely move in a narrow range between 13.457 to 13.795 per US dollar . Chart USD /
IDR on a Daily timeframe with indicators EMA - 20 ( red ) , EMA - 60 ( Tosca ) , EMA 100 ( brown ) , Fibonacci retracement , MACD ( click image to enlarge )
However , technically , the H4 chart shows signs of the rupiah weakened slightly again in
the near future . In terms of fundamental matter , the risk fell to a near 14,000an also still
there, as there is still uncertainty in the global market and the existence of several
important US news that is likely to shake up the market in the coming days . In case of
events beyond expectations suddenly pushed volatility up, then the expected range above
can be canceled altogether .
e. Analysis of Rupiah March 2016
As predicted earlier , the rupiah exchange rate to move higher towards 13,248 per US
dollar by the end of February 2016. However , once entered in March , the exchange rate is
a direct bearing Garuda rally rose to a level of current 13,000an this analysis was written .
The rupiah is in the strongest position against the US dollar since May 2015. The
development is inseparable from the economic development of Indonesia and the World in
the past month.
2.1.3
In Mid-February, Bank Indonesia reported a current account deficit widened in the 4/2015
quarter to 2:39 % of GDP , or by -USD 5.1 billion . This is much higher than the previous
period , where the deficit narrowed to 1.94 % of GDP ( USD 4.2 billion ) .
This deficit widening is considered due to lower oil and gas trade balance surplus due to an
increase in the rate of economic growth at the end of last year has led to increased
domestic demand . On the one hand , this is a negative signal ; but the increase in domestic
demand itself opens opportunities for expansion of economic activity in 2016 , so the data
can be considered neutral .
b. February Devlation
In February, headline inflation Indonesia recorded YoY % up slightly from 4:14 to 4:42 %,
but MoM reported deflation of 12:09 % , with respect to a decrease in food prices and
electricity rates . Core inflation rate that excludes the price of goods with high volatility
decreased from 3.62 % to 3:59 % ( YoY )
Negative monthly inflation rate is seen as risky by some , because of deflation carries the
risk of economic weakness. However , before assessing this, we should first monitor the
inflation rate until well into the quarter 2/2016 , because it could be when this happens is a
period of adjustment , considering the annual inflation rate is still rising . In recent years ,
there are certain months where monthly inflation entered negative territory in MoM , but in
subsequent periods of inflation turns back drove . One thing that is clear is that easing
inflation pressures will open up opportunities for Bank Indonesia to lower the benchmark
interest rate again massive .
2.1.4
Although many efforts have been done to invite back long-term investment to Indonesia ,
but it is worth to note that the majority of foreign funds into Indonesia is still parked in the
financial market assets . As hot money , the funds could easily get out of Indonesia when
conditions abroad changed .
Today, the signs of recovery in world oil prices , the possibility of additional monetary
stimulus by the European Central Bank ( ECB ) , as well as speculation surrounding the
US interest rate hikes , are issues which most attention and probable impact on the rupiah .
US domestic economic reports tend to be moderate , but the latest employment data
indicate the existence of opportunities for US interest rate hikes in the near future , but it is
potentially negative for the rupiah . On the other hand , a period of loose monetary policy
for longer , both of the US central bank ( FED ) and the ECB , allowing foreign funds
continued to flow into Indonesia .
The uncertainty that has sparked intense transfer of funds to riskier assets and strengthen
the rupiah , but no one knows the extent to which that sentiment will continue. Moreover ,
in the next month is scheduled to be held on ECB policy meeting ( March 10 ) , FED
( March 15 to 17 ) , and Bank Indonesia ( March 17 ) , while also release economic
indicators could potentially impact other smaller ones
a. Prediction Rupiah Until End of March 2016
Technically , both in the daily and weekly charts , it appears that the rupiah against the US
dollar has been overbought . Judging from the weekly chart , there is a chance for the
rupiah strengthened to EMA 100 on 12,875an or up 161.8 % fibo at 12.701 , so we can use
a range of 12.701 to 12.875 as the benchmark possibility maximum gain if the rally
continues .
Chart USD / IDR at Weekly timeframe with indicators EMA - 20 ( red ) , EMA - 60
( Tosca ) , EMA - 100 ( brown ) , Fibonacci retracement , MACD ( click image to enlarge )
However , when seen from the daily chart , there is also the possibility of strengthening of
the rupiah against the US dollar would be " stuck " in the range 13,000an today . This
possibility is supported by the MACD USD / IDR is oversold on the daily chart as well as
the widening of the moving averages .
Chart USD / IDR on a Daily timeframe with indicators EMA - 20 ( red ) , EMA 60 (Tosca), EMA - 100 (brown) , Fibonacci retracement , MACD ( click image to enlarge)
For a while , with the anticipation of increased volatility due to the many important events,
the approximate exchange rate until the end of March 2016 amount ranging from 12.701 to
13.457 per US dollar . This estimate could be canceled if the volatility was not increased,
and will be updated at any time as future developments. When summed up in one phrase,
the situation now is wait and see.
b. The value of the rupiah exchange rate against dollar
The exchange rate is influenced by supply and demand ( EconEdLink ) . Hence ,
comes the term appreciation and depreciation . Appreciation is the appreciation of a
country's currency against another country's currency is determined by market forces ,
while depreciation is a weakening of the currency of a country against other countries that
are determined by market forces
Today, the phenomenon occurs rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar it
behooves us examine the cause. Depreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar is not
new in the history of the rupiah. However, what makes phenomenal is the exchange rate
against the dollar has reached 13 thousand . To improve these conditions , the government
has worked with Bank Indonesia to stabilize the rupiah against foreign impact will be
visible directly or indirectly. In addition to the value of the rupiah is considered unnatural ,
the period of the weakening also noteworthy .
According to the table below , the value of the rupiah has depreciated since the
middle of last year despite never appreciated in October 2014. After that , the rupiah
continues to weaken on Friday, March 20, 2015 , which touched USD 13075.00 per dollar
High inflation also affects the weakening of the rupiah . Economics of trade data in 2015
the inflation rate increased by 0.88% period March through July with an average increase
of 0.178 % . At the current rate of inflation here cause the rupiah weakens . Then the
period of August to December inflation rate decreased 3.91 % with an average reduction of
inflasi0,78 % Inflation rose again in the beginning of 2016 amounted to 1.07 % .
Tingkat Inflasi Maret2015 Februari 2016
www.tradingeconomics.com
This is why very important for Indonesia to boost exports and reduce dependence on
imports , the trade deficit and high inflation in Indonesia that led to the need for the dollar
to rise sharply as imports outweigh exports.
External factors affecting the weakening of the rupiah against the dollar is returned to the
Capital flight abroad (Capital Flight) Capital circulating in Indonesia , especially in the
financial market, mostly foreign capital . This makes the rupiah to some extent dependent
on foreign investor confidence in the outlook for business in Indonesia . The better the
Indonesian business climate there will be more foreign investment in Indonesia and thus
the amount will be intensified . Conversely, the negative outlook of investors to Indonesia ,
the rupiah weakened
Central Bank policy of the United States, the Federal Reserve recently. The tight
money policy (tight money policy) is making investors move their investments from
Indonesia back to the West that is then followed by the weakening of the rupiah against the
dollar. US economic situation was good in the last 8 years the US economy is quite stable,
and even in the last 6 years towards keeping relatively high growth, the unemployment rate
down, and inflation is low. The increase in the interest rate is high enough not to make
their economic growth declined sharply. The plan to increase the interest rate the Fed Bank
of America this year. In the next three years will rise between 2.5% -3%, the US economy
increased its own so that the interest rate also rose. The increase in the benchmark interest
rate the US central bank was rated also have an impact on the Indonesian economy. there
are short and long term impacts associated increase in interest rates of the US central bank.
First, there occurs the flow of foreign capital out of developing countries, including
Indonesia. Secondly, there is pressure on the currencies of developing countries in Asia,
including the rupiah. Third, the US dollar will strengthen significantly. rising interest rates
the US central bank was quite positive for Indonesia's economy in the long term. First, the
US dollar will weaken because of rising interest rates the US central bank edged up 25
basis points.
2.3 Dampak Melemahnya Kurs Rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika
Currency exchange rates are not always in a stagnant condition . Sometimes the condition
of the currency exchange rate is weak and sometimes strong. On condition of currency
exchange rates , especially the rupiah weakened against the US dollar will have a negative
impact on the economy and positive . These impacts are as follows
a. Negative impacts
Termination of employment (FLE ) . Layoffs occurred in the industry over the inin
hang from imported raw materials . Workers laid off will continue to increase in
number along with the continued weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar .
Unemployment increased . Number of job seekers each year about 2.5 million
people. With the economic growth that occurred earlier , many job seekers are still
unemployed , now coupled with the laid-off workers .
rising food inflation . Rising inflation in the field of food, so closely linked to past
policies that import minded
Poverty is increasing. If the goods, especially groceries rising prices, income has
not increased even no income due to layoffs and unemployment, the poverty
automatically increases.
State and private debt burden even heavier. Governments often have to owe in
order to carry out development either directly to a particular country or institution
or by issuing bonds. Companies often need to owe swastapun beforehand to expand
its business. If the debt is done in the form of US dollars, the returns must be done
with the same currency although the current exchange rate different from the
current debt repayment debt provision.
The price of imported raw materials will rise. The increase in prices of imported
goods will be bad for the import of industrial raw material, such as tempeh and tofu
industry. Indonesian soybean demand largely met from imports so that when the
rupiah exchange rate weakened continuously, the price of soybeans will be more
towering and impact the price rises as well as tempeh and tofu industry facing
bankruptcy.
b. Positive Impact
The tourism sector was also getting pretty big impact on the rising value of
the dollar against the rupiah. There will be many tourists who come or go
shopping in Indonesia because of "cheapening" the cost of living here. If
the previous 100 dollars equal to 1.2 million, the current 100 dollars to 1.4
million rupiah. This significant difference that will benefit those who use
dollars for travel.
3. Conclussion
Based on exposure to the explanation that has been described by the author, then
the following is the conclusion of this paper
a. The concept or existing economic system in Indonesia from 1945 until 1966, has
experienced three stages in the development of economic policies.
b. The movement of the rupiah in the period between January 18 to 29, 2016 to have
strengthened, even briefly touched 13.558.
c. The factors that caused the rupiah to weaken Indonesia is the condition of
economic instability, and the condition of the US economy.
d. If the amount managed to hold a strong position in a long time then it could
establish a new equilibrium level based on the reinforcement. For a while, with the
anticipation of increased volatility due to the many important events, the
approximate exchange rate until the end of March 2016 amount ranging from
12.701 to 13.457 per US dollar.
e. The weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar had an impact that negative
impacts include foreign debt burden was increasing, layoffs at companies with
import sector that if this continued weakness will lead to an increase in
unemployment, poverty and inflation.
Daftar Pustaka
Inflation
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id=157900&title=faktorfaktor_yang_menyebabkan_rupiah_melemah), diakses 18
Maret 2016.
Perekonomian Indonesia. BPS Badan Pusat Statistik. (Online), (www.bps.go.id) diakses 18
Maret 2016
Seriawan.2015.
Dampak
Positif
Melemahnya
Dolar.
(Online),
(m.kompasiana.com/musniumar/10-dampak-negatif-pada-masyarakat-
2013.
Sistem
Perekonomian
Nasional.
(Online),
2015.
Faktor
yang
Mempengaruhi
Nilai
Rupiah.
(Online),
(http://www.kosim.web.id/2015/08/inilah-faktor-faktor-yang-mempengaruhi.html),
diakses 18 Maret 2016
___________. 2015. 10 Dampak melemahnya rupiah terhadap dolar. (Online),
(http://www.kompasiana.com/musniumar/10-dampak-negatif-pada-masyarakatmelemahnya-rupiah_55f21cf34df9fd7e0e532e94), diakses 18 Maret 2016
Author Bio
Name
: Nikmatul Chasanah
Date of Born
Addres
Gender
: Perempuan
This article discusses the impact of the weakening of the rupiah against the dollar. Every
time the value of the exchange rate can fluctuate as a result of factors that influence the
impact on the national economy. Indonesia as a country that is engaged in economic
activities both nationally and internationally to be affected by the currency exchange rate
changes. In a few weeks ago the Indonesian currency exchange rate against the US dollar
took a big hit. But this time the rupiah continued to strengthen against the US dollar. The
US dollar is the benchmark currency across the world despite the fact that there is still a
currency that is stronger than the US dollar are the euro (EUR), which is used almost in
most countries in Europe and the British Pound (GBP), which is the currency of the
country of Queen Elizabeth, England. Still, the US dollar became the main benchmark
currency of the world and a major benchmark in the world of money exchange.
Your is perfectly