Knudsen

Bailey Knudsen
ATMO 1010
Professor Mallia
4 December 2016
Impacts of Wildfires Across the Western U.S.
During recent years, wildfire trends, along with their possible causes and
prevention methods, have been a common topic of conversation among citizens in the
western United States. Although fire trends presently seem to be somewhat under control,
many scholars have predicted that they will take a steep incline in the coming years.
Many argue back and forth about whether climate/global warming or human land use are
the cause of this predicted increase in wildfires. Based on personal research from the
studies of scholarly publications, I contend that although past wildfire tendencies were
majorly caused by human land use, climate change is the primary cause that has and will
have a major impact on wildfire activity in the near future. Furthermore, the climate
change will cause increased wildfires and those wildfires will have a significant impact
on air quality and pollution.
Before making assumptions about future happenings, it is important to
acknowledge activities from the past. According to NASAs graph entitled Global Fire
Activity Variations, fire trends from the 1920s to the 1970s showed a major decrease
because of human efforts of fire suppression. Around 1760, the onset of the industrial
revolution caused the frequency of wildfires to skyrocket to a high that was never reached
before. This peak was likely because of the vast amount of factories and machinery that

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were introduced to the environment, including the sudden introduction of burning fossil
fuels. Since the Earth had never experienced all of these man-made structures, nature was
visibly overwhelmed with the byproducts. Eventually, the people seemed to realized that
the effects of their factories needed to be put under better control. Around the mid 1900s,
one can see that humans were very successful in reducing the frequency of fire activity.
Although fire activity was increased due to human factories and has been decreasing due
to human fire suppression, it is projected that climate change will now cause fire activity
to rise back up in the future. NASA is one of many sources that believe that fire trends
will increase with climate change.
A few years ago, an interesting study was carried out by Phillip Dennison and his
fellow colleagues to study wildfire trends in the western U.S. Their methods included
usage of burn area boundaries mapped from satellite remote sensing data by the
Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity Project (MTBS) [Eidenshink et al., 2007] to
determine wildre trends within nine ecoregions spanning the western U.S (Dennison
2928). Seasonal trends in maximum temperature, precipitation, and Self-Calibrated
Palmer Drought Severity Index (SCPDSI) [Wells et al., 2004] were also tested. Although
there were a few areas that were exceptions in the study, the trends in re variables
indicated a signicant increase per year in total area, size, 90th percentile size, and 10th
percentile day of year in re activity over the western U.S. After hearing these results,
some would assume that the areas with increasing fire trends would be geographically
analogous. While this assumption may seem valid, it is incorrect. Shockingly, the rising
fire activity trends discovered in the study spanned a wide range of vegetation types,

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latitudes, and precipitation regimes found in the western U.S (Dennison 2931). In
comparison with the ecoregions that didnt show major changes in fire trends, the areas
with the most notable increases in fire activity had warmer temperatures, less
precipitation, and higher drought severity. The overall result of this study suggests that
climate is a primary driver of changing fire trends in the western United States
(Dennison).
Two aspects of climate that majorly influence and will continue to influence
wildfire activity in the Western U.S. are the lands moisture variability and temperature.
According to Westerling, climatic explanations posit that increasing variability in
moisture conditions (wet/dry oscillations promoting biomass growth, then burning),
and/or a trend of increasing drought frequency, and/or warming temperatures have led to
increased wildfire activity (13, 14) (Westerling 940)." It has also been confirmed that
through the study of sedimentary charcoal records, there are lower tendencies of fire
activity in cold periods and higher activity during hot periods, whether or not humans are
present (Bowman). This fact solidifies the point that there is a strong relationship
between climate and fire activity. When vegetation and land become very dry and hot,
those areas are more likely to catch fire.
In relation to moisture variability and dry conditions, a major aspect of climate
that is causing the wildfire activity in the western U.S. to rise, is the snowmelt timing in
relation to the time of year. It is commonly known that snow is the main source of
moisture and precipitation in the mountainous regions of the west during the winter
season. When the snow melts, it has the vital role of adding moisture to the soil for the

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spring and summer seasons. When the snow melts too early in the year, it can lead to a
longer and drier season. This longer and drier season poses the threat of hosting an
increased amount of wildfires due to the overall dryness of the land and the greater
likelihood of fire ignition (Westerling). Nearly all climate-models are predicting that
warmer springs and summers will occur over the western U.S. in the coming years.
Because of this, it is only confirmed that there will be a high tendency for earlier
snowmelts and longer fire seasons. The earlier snowmelts and longer fire seasons will
make the western U.S. more vulnerable to frequent and large wildfires (Westerling).
Some scholars argue that climate doesnt only affect wildfire frequency, but also
that fire emissions affect climate. Bowman stated that humans and climate both play a
role in determining fire patterns and, in turn, fire influences the climate system via the
release of carbon (Bowman 482). He went on to say that wildfires/deforestation fires act
as a significant source that contribute to the worlds greenhouse gas problem. Those gases
will cause global warming that will in turn increase fire activities, leading to even more
carbon emissions in the atmosphere. Although deforestation fires can contribute to global
warming, fire can influence most radiative forcing components and have a substantial
positive feedback on the climate system (Bowman). Bowman has the opinion that fires
and their influences are important parts of the Earth system which humans are too narrow
minded to understand or educate themselves about (Bowman). (35).
Knowing that wildfires are predicted to increase due to climate change brings up
another very important question: what impact do these abundant wildfires have on air
quality? Another scholar, D. Mallia, studied to see what effects that wildfires in the

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western United States had on air quality in 2007 and 2012. He began by noting that the
western side of the U.S. is the most responsible for fire emissions in the country because
of the dry conditions, the wealth of needle leaf forests, and a dry season [Westerling et
al., 2006; Wiedinmyer and Neff, 2007] (Mallia). Since wildfires effect their exact
location and the areas downwind, Mallia decided to test the western and urban city of Salt
Lake City, Utah to see how surrounding wildfires affected the citys CO, CO2, and
PM2.5 concentrations. A few of his results revealed that wildres play a negligible role
toward enhancements in CO2 concentrations within the SLC valley and that
simulations indicate that wildre contributions to CO enhancements in SLC were also
fairly minimal (Mallia). Although CO2 and CO enhancements were minimal,
PM2.5 contributions from wildres were substantial for August and September for the
2012 wildre season (Mallia). His study came to the conclusion that as wildfire trends in
the western U.S. continue to increase in many ways including size and frequency, this
region will increase in the exposure to pollutants such as O3 and PM2.5. This increase
will magnify the threats to human communities and ecosystems, and substantially
increase the management challenges in restoring forests and reducing greenhouse gas
emissions (Westerling).
In the past, both climate and human land use have heavily contributed to wildfire
activity in the western United States; however, it is projected that climate change will be
the primary source that increases wildfire activities in the future. Because of the climate
changes resulting in increased wildfires, air quality will suffer in these regions and air

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pollution will increase. It is important that citizens in the western U.S. work to educate
themselves on their environment so they know how to prepare for their futures.

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Works Cited
Bowman, David M.J.S. "Fire in the Earth System." Sciencemag 324 (2009): 481-84.
Web. 1 Nov. 2016.
Dennison, Phillip E., Simon C. Brewer, James D. Arnold, and Max A. Moritz. "Large
Wildre Trends in the Western United States, 19842011."Geophysical Research
Letters 41.8 (2014): 2928-933. AGU Publications. Web. 1 Nov. 2016.
"Global Fire Activity Variations." NASA. N.p.: n.p., n.d. N. pag. Print.
Mallia, D. V., J. C. Lin, S. Urbanski, J. Ehleringer, and T. Nehrkorn. "Impacts of Upwind
Wildfire Emissions on CO, CO2, and PM2.5 Concentrations in Salt Lake City,
Utah." Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 120.1 (2015): 147-66. AGU
Publications. Web. 1 Nov. 2016.
Westerling, A. L., H. G. Hidalgo, D. R. Cayan, and T. W. Swetnam. "Warming and Earlier
Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity."Sciencemag (2006): 94043. Web. 1 Nov. 2016.