Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213 228

www.elsevier.com/locate/geomorph

Landslide characteristics and slope instability modeling using

GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong
F.C. Dai a, C.F. Lee b,*
a

Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, Peoples Republic of China
b
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, Peoples Republic of China
Received 22 September 2000; received in revised form 14 March 2001; accepted 20 March 2001

Abstract
Steep terrain and high a frequency of tropical rainstorms make landslide occurrence on natural terrain a common
phenomenon in Hong Kong. This paper reports on the use of a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) database, compiled
primarily from existing digital maps and aerial photographs, to describe the physical characteristics of landslides and the
statistical relations of landslide frequency with the physical parameters contributing to the initiation of landslides on Lantau
Island in Hong Kong. The horizontal travel length and the angle of reach, defined as the angle of the line connecting the head of
the landslide source to the distal margin of the displaced mass, are used to describe runout behavior of landslide mass. For all
landslides studied, the horizontal travel length of landslide mass ranges from 5 to 785 m, with a mean value of 43 m, and the
average angle of reach is 27.7. This GIS database is then used to obtain a logistic multiple regression model for predicting
slope instability. It is indicated that slope gradient, lithology, elevation, slope aspect, and land-use are statistically significant in
predicting slope instability, while slope morphology and proximity to drainage lines are not important and thus excluded from
the model. This model is then imported back into the GIS to produce a map of predicted slope instability. The results of this
study demonstrate that slope instability can be effectively modeled by using GIS technology and logistic multiple regression
analysis. D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Landslides; Runout; Logistic multiple regression; Geographical Information Systems (GIS)

1. Introduction
Landslides in mountainous terrain often occur
during or after heavy rainfall, resulting in the loss of
life and damage to the natural and/or built environment. Mapping or delineating areas susceptible to
landslides is essential for land-use activities and
management decision-making in mountainous areas.
*

Corresponding author. Tel.: +852-28592645; fax: +85228580611.

E-mail address: leecf@hkucc.hku.hk (C.F. Lee).

Sites that are prone to landslides can be identified by

both analytical and empirical methods.
A variety of approaches have been used in slope
instability mapping and can be classified into qualitative factor overlay, statistical models, and geotechnical process models. In the qualitative approach,
several maps representing the spatial distribution of
those physical parameters which may have influence
on the occurrence of landslides are combined into a
hazard map using subjective decision rules, based on
the experience of geoscientists involved (Anbalagan,
1992; Pachauri and Pant, 1992; Sarkar et al., 1995).

0169-555X/02/$ - see front matter D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0 1 6 9 - 5 5 5 X ( 0 1 ) 0 0 0 8 7 - 3

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F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

The limitations in this approach are in the reproducibility of results and in the subjectivity in decision
rules. Statistical models involve the statistical determination of the combinations of physical parameters
that have led to past landslides. Quantitative or semiquantitative estimates are then made for areas currently free of landslides, but where similar conditions
exist. Both multiple regression analysis and discriminant analysis have been used to explore relations
between landslide occurrence and the terrain variables (e.g. Yin and Yan, 1988; Carrara et al., 1991,
1995; Brunori et al., 1996; Dhakal et al., 1999). A
major deterrent to such techniques has undoubtedly
been the logistics of collecting and calculating quantitative data (Rowbotham and Dudycha, 1998).
Another problem is that the probability values computed from such techniques can often fall outside the
0 to 1 range of the probability values, which makes
it difficult to relate the output to a systematic probability surface. Recently, logistic regression, one of
a family of generalized linear models that are well
suited to analyzing a presence absence dependent
variable, has been used to predict slope instability
(Carrara et al., 1991; Mark and Ellen, 1995; Rowbotham and Dudycha, 1998). Geotechnical process
approaches are based on slope stability analyses, and
are applicable only when the ground conditions are
fairly uniform across the study area and the landslide
types are known and relatively easy to analyze (e.g.
Terlien et al., 1995; Wu and Sidle, 1995). The
advantage of the geotechnical process models is that
they permit quantitative factors of safety to be calculated, while the main problem is the high degree
of simplification that is usually necessary for the use
of such models.
An assessment of landslide hazard requires knowledge of the landslide characteristics and runout behavior of landslide mass. This research was undertaken
with a view to characterizing landslides on natural
terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong, and then developing a Geographical Information Systems (GIS)
approach to modeling slope instability. This study
area is prone to landslides when subjected to heavy
rainstorms. For example, widespread landslides
occurred in Lantau Island, following heavy rainfall
on 18 July 1992 and 5 November 1993 (Franks,
1999). There are four objectives in this research: (1)
to characterize landslides on natural terrain of Lantau

Island in Hong Kong; (2) to determine the statistical

correlations between landslide frequency and the
physical parameters contributing to the initiation of
landslides; (3) to develop a methodology for modeling
slope instability using GIS; and (4) to characterize the
runout behavior of landslide mass. One assumption of
slope instability modeling is that the occurrence of
landslides in the past is indicative of the potential for
landslides to occur in the future. By identifying the
physical parameters contributing to the initiation of
landslides, and by incorporating them in a GIS-based
logistic multiple regression model, regional slope
instability on Lantau Island was modeled.

2. Description of the study area

Lantau Island is located in the southwest part of the
territory of Hong Kong and is the largest outlying
island within the territory (Fig. 1). Primarily because
of its steep terrain, the island is virtually undeveloped
and uninhabited with the exception of small coastal
patches of flat land. Land area with slope gradients
greater than 25 accounts for 44% of the total land.
Elevation ranges from sea level to over 900 m above
sea level and changes abruptly.
The bedrock geology of the study area is dominated by Mesozoic volcanic rocks and the younger

Fig. 1. Location of the study area.

F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

intrusive igneous rocks (Fig. 2). The volcanic rocks,

which comprise tuffs and lavas with intercalated
sedimentary rocks, crop out in the west of the study
area. Intrusive rocks consist mainly of granites, and
dykes of various compositions. Paleozoic sedimentary
strata comprising metamorphosed siltstone, sandstone
and carbonaceous siltstone occur as a small outcrop in
the northwest coastal areas of the study area. Superficial deposits of the Quaternary age form large, flatlying areas. In hilly terrain, colluvium, including
debris-flow and other slope debris deposits, mostly
of late-Pleistocene to Holocene age, commonly mantle side slopes and valleys as a result of numerous
individual episodes of mass wasting and erosion
during the Quaternary period. Colluvium occurs as
relatively thin ribbon-like deposits filling drainage
courses. However, there are deposits which are considerably thicker and of greater areal extent on some
hillslopes in the study area. The colluvium derived
from volcanics typically consists of subangular cob-

215

bles and boulders, of feldsparphyric rhyolite with

some tuff, in a matrix of mottled, reddish brown and
yellowish brown gravelly, sandy, slightly clayey silt.
Small alluvial deposits occur in hilly areas, but
alluvium is generally restricted to fans developed
downslope of the colluvial deposits. Beach deposits
of sand usually form in front of alluvial deposits,
especially in coastal bays deposited under the combined influence of higher sea levels and fluctuating
climatic conditions in recent times (Geotechnical
Control Office, 1988a,b). A regolith, or mantle of
weathered rock, occurs over most of the study area.
The effects of weathering vary with rock types, being
reflected in topographic relief. Intrusive rocks and the
Paleozoic sedimentary rocks are most deeply weathered and eroded, forming the lower ground. The acidic
volcanic rocks are more resistant to deep weathering
and erosion. As indicated in Fig. 2, the area is
structurally affected by two sets of faults trending
NE NNE and NNW NW, respectively.

Fig. 2. Simplified geological map of the study area.

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F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

The climate is sub-tropical and monsoonal, with

mild, dry winters and hot, humid summers. Rainfall
is heavy, and occasionally intense during the rainstorms and typhoons. Mean annual rainfall over the
period 1961 1991 is in the range of 2000 to 2400
mm. Recent major rainstorm events occurred on 5
November 1993 (24-h rolling rainfall of 745 mm, 1
in 796 year event) and on 18 July 1992 (24-h rolling
rainfall of 454 mm, 1 in 28 year event). The hillslopes are drained by numerous small streams, most
of which flow only during or after heavy or prolonged rainfall. The hillsides are often deeply incised
as a result of erosion caused by ephemeral streams. In
general, piezometric records from previous site investigations indicate that the regional groundwater table
lies either just within the slightly to moderately
weathered bedrock or within the overlying saprolite
(Franks, 1999). The relatively high permeability of
the colluvium deposits, when compared to the underlying saprolite or weathered bedrock, allows for the
development of transient perched groundwater tables
at the interface during or following periods of intense
rainfall.

3. Data sources
The study area was examined using the ArcView
GIS software. The data available for this study include
topography, land-use classification, a terrain morphological map, superficial and bedrock geology, and the
locations and trails of landslides. All locational, geological, and geomorphological features provided by
the different thematic maps mentioned above were
imported into the ArcView GIS, or digitized using the
GIS software PC Arc/Info, and then transferred to
ArcView for subsequent analyses.
Contour lines and drainage lines are obtained from
the 1:20,000 scale topographic maps with a contour
interval of 20 m. Elevation data were obtained from
the digital elevation model (DEM) with a resolution of
20
20 m derived from the 1:20,000 scale digital
contour lines of the area. Two data layers are derived
from these elevation data, namely slope aspect and
slope gradient. Proximity to drainage line is calculated
using GIS functions.
Superficial and bedrock geological data are
obtained from 1:20,000 scale solid and superficial

geological maps developed by the Hong Kong Geological Survey of the Geotechnical Engineering
Office (GEO), previously known as the Geotechnical
Control Office (GCO). The maps covering the study
area describe the geological groups, each comprising
geological units of broadly similar lithology. For ease
of analysis, the groups were further reclassified into
nine categories: alluvial, terrace and beach deposits
(ATB), debris flow deposits and talus (DF), sedimentary rock (SR), metasedimentary rock (MSR), intrusive rock (IR), minor intrusive rock (MIR), ash tuff,
tuffite and tuff breccia (BCT), trachydacite, dacite
and rhyolite lava (TDR), and volcaniclastic sedimentary rock (VSR), based on their stratigraphy and
genesis.
The 1:20,000-scale digital terrain classification
maps covering the study area, developed by the
GEO, were available to the authors. This dataset
contains terrain classification information that
includes erosion and stability, terrain component and
morphology, and slope gradient, which was derived
from Geotechnical Areas Studies Programme (GASP)
primarily using aerial photography interpretation
(API) technique (Brand, 1988; Geotechnical Control
Office, 1988a,b). Based on the terrain classification
information, terrain morphology which describes the
physical appearance of the slope and the general shape
of the slope profile (straight, concave or convex) is
extracted and then reclassified into 10 categories for
simplicity: hillcrest or ridge (A), straight sideslope
(B), concave sideslope (C), convex sideslope (D),
straight footslope (E), concave footslope (F), convex
footslope (G), drainage plain (H), rock outcrop (M),
and others, such as reclamation and coastal plain, (O).
All the footslope and drainage plain terrain consists of
colluvium, and all the sideslope terrain consists of
insitu geological materials (Geotechnical Control
Office, 1988a,b).
The landslide database used was derived from the
Geotechnical Engineering Office work in which landslide locations and trails were digitized from 23
temporal sets of 1:20,000 to 1:40,000 scale stereoscopic aerial photographs dating from 1945 to 1994
(Evans, 1998; King, 1999). The aerial photographs
used thus cover a period of 50 years and recent
landslides as old as about 10 years were visible before
re-vegetation masked most scars. Recent landslides
(Fig. 3) were observed on aerial photographs as a

F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

217

Fig. 3. Shaded relief map of the study area showing locations of landslides (black dots).

distinctive light tone, which is generally bare of

vegetation (King, 1999). This indicates that the aerial
photographs record about a 60-year period of landslide activity. The location of each identified landslide
crown was recorded on the 1:5000 scale base map,
and the centerline of any landslide mass trail was
marked with a line. In the interpretation of aerial
photographs, the GEO classified the width of the
landslide scars as greater or less than 20 m wide,
and landslides with a width of greater than 20 m were
referred to as wide. This may be attributed to the
fact that landsliding with a width of greater than 20 m
is not a common occurrence. The ground slope angle
across the landslide head, calculated from the 1:5000
scale topographical maps, was noted. All these features have been digitized by the GEO, and are
available to the authors.
A 1:50,000 scale coverage of land-use types for
the whole territory of Hong Kong, based on the
interpretation of SPOT images with verification of

field checking by Chi (Unpublished data) in 1998,

is used for the analysis. Although 35 land-use types
were mapped, these were simplified into six categories for the purposes of this study: (1) developed
land, such as cropland, roads, structures, reservoirs,
and reclamation (DL); (2) forested land (FL); (3)
shrub-forested land (SFL); (4) densely grassed land
with a shrub coverage of less than 40% (DGL); (5)
moderately grassed land with > 50% coverage
(MGL); and (6) sparsely grassed land on rock
outcrop-dominated areas (SGL). It should be noted
that land-use cover is considered to be only estimates, because of increased development of coastal
flat-lying lands with time and possible temporal
change in land-use types over the past several
decades.
The above-mentioned vector datasets are then
rasterized to the DEM resolution in ArcView for
subsequent analyses. Each landslide was assumed to
be within a single 20 m pixel.

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F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

4. Physical characteristics of landslides

Physical characteristics of landslides, including
landslide description, the physical parameters contributing to the initiation of landslides, and runout
behavior of landslide mass are analyzed respectively
as follows.
4.1. Landslide description
Landslide classification systems are usually based
on a combination of material and movement mechanism. Using the system proposed by Cruden and
Varnes (1996), most of the landslides in the study
area are probably debris slides, debris flows, complex
debris slide-flows, or composite debris slide-flowfalls, all of which may be either open-slope or
channelized (Evans et al., 1999). About 80% of the
2135 landslides recorded were less than 20-m in
source width. Field checking indicates that the failures
generally occurred along the colluvium bedrock contact, and that the predominant failure mode is of the
translational type, involving a slipping of a thin layer
of colluvium with a planar failure surface. Most
landslides started as slides and quickly converted to
flows because of the water involved and the steep
terrain below the landslide sources (Dai et al., 1999).
The vast majority of the landslides have the following
common features: a source area, defined by a surface
of rupture which comprises the main scarp and the
scarp floor, and a landslide trail downslope of the
source where landslide mass transport predominates,
though erosion and deposition may also occur, and a

deposition fan where the majority of the landslide

mass is deposited (Fig. 4). It should be noted that a
deposition fan might not be well developed for many
failures on open slopes because the landslide mass is
completely deposited on the trail path.
The GEO carried out a systematic study of the 56
natural terrain failures in three selected areas within
the study area, and a factual and a diagnostic report on
the investigations and observations of the landslides
were given by Wong et al. (1997) and Wong et al.
(1998), respectively. Field inspections of these landslides have also been carried out by the authors (Dai et
al., 1999). The distributions of source length, source
width, and failure depth are shown in Fig. 5. For the
landslides examined, the source lengths vary between
6 and 40 m, with a mean value of about 15 m, and the
source widths range from 3 to 20 m, with a mean
value of about 10 m. The landslides generally have a
failure depth varying between 0.5 and 2.0 m with a
mean value of about 1.4 m. The vast majority of the
landslides examined involved the failure of a thin
surface layer of highly permeable bouldery colluvium.
In slightly over 50% of the landslides examined on
site, erosion pipe holes, usually near the interface of
the colluvium and the underlying less permeable
material, were observed in the loose colluvium
exposed at the back scarps of the landslides. It seemed
that these landslides were probably triggered by the
development of a transient water table above the
interface between the colluvium and the less permeable underlying material, resulting from direct surface
infiltration and subsurface seepage (Wong et al., 1998;
Dai et al., 1999). Given the heterogeneous nature of
the colluvium layer and the likely presence of preferential flow paths in the layer, subsurface seepage
flows leading to a build-up of seepage pressures
acting within selected zones in the layer might also
have contributed to triggering the landslides (Wong et
al., 1998).
4.2. Physical parameters contributing to the initiation
of landslides

Fig. 4. Description of typical natural terrain landslides.

To examine the physical parameters contributing to

the initiation of landslides, the landslides which
occurred in the study area were correlated with those
parameters considered to have influence on their
occurrence. These physical parameters include lithol-

F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

219

4.2.1. Lithology and geological structure

It may be reasonably expected that the properties
of the slope-forming materials, such as strength and
permeability that are involved in the failure, are
related to the lithology, which therefore should affect
the likelihood of failure. The correlation of landslide
frequency with lithology is shown in Fig. 6a. It can be
seen that there are three geological categories with
relatively high landslide frequency, namely trachydacite, dacite and rhyolite lava (TDR), sedimentary rock
(SR), and metasedimentary rock (MSR), with the
former being the highest. As mentioned previously,
the available evidence tends to suggest that surface
thin colluvium may have played an important role in
the majority of landslides. However, colluvial deposits
that are less than approximately 2 m thick are not
identified on the 1:20,000 scale geological maps
(Evans et al., 1999). Hence, landslides in thin colluvium are recorded as occurring within the underlying
geological group. This is not considered to be a
serious problem as the properties of the thin colluvial
layers will be very dependent on the bedrock geology
from which they are derived. Immediately downslope
from geological group boundaries, unmapped colluvial deposits may have been partly derived from the
upper geological group rather than from the underlying unit. However, the proportion of landslides
affected by this situation will be very small (Evans
et al., 1999).
Structural information is also available from the
digital geological maps. However, visual examination of spatial distributions suggests that the correlation between landslides and mapped linear
structural features at the 1:20,000-scale is not good,
and the structural information is thus excluded in this
study.
Fig. 5. Histograms showing characteristics of initial landslides: (a)
source length, (b) source width, and (c) failure depth.

ogy and structure, slope gradient and slope morphology, slope aspect, elevation, proximity to drainage
line, and land-use type. The digital map of landslide
distribution was overlain on the raster data layers of
physical parameters mentioned above using the GIS,
and landslide frequency, which is the number of
landslides per squared kilometer, was calculated for
each category on the physical parameter maps.

4.2.2. Slope gradient and slope morphology

Slope gradient has a great influence on the susceptibility of a slope to landsliding. On a slope of
uniform, isotropic material increased slope gradient
correlates with increased likelihood of failure. However, variations in soil thickness and strength are two
factors which vary over a wide range for both failure
and non-failure sites. To quantify the relative frequency of landslides on different slope gradients, it
is necessary to consider the distribution of the slope
gradient categories using the available digital eleva-

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F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

Fig. 6. Correlations between landslide frequency (landslides per squared kilometer) and the physical parameters (symbols refer to text).

tion model (DEM). Examination of landslide frequency with the corresponding slope gradient categories shows an increase with slope gradient until the
maximum frequency is reached in the 35 40 category, followed by a decrease in the >40 category
(Fig. 6b).

Slope morphology can probably affect the susceptibility of a slope to landslide in several ways. The
shape of a slope influences the direction of and
amount of surface runoff or subsurface drainage
reaching a site. Concentration of subsurface drainage
within a concave slope, resulting in higher pore water

F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

pressures in the axial areas than on flanks, is one

possible mechanism responsible for triggering landslides (Pierson, 1980). An analysis of correlation
between landslide frequency and slope morphology
is carried out with the use of the terrain morphological
map, and the result is shown in Fig. 6c. It can be seen
that the landslide frequency is generally higher for
concave sideslopes (C), and for rock outcrop (M),
followed by straight sideslopes (B). The landslide
frequency on the sideslope terrain is much higher
than that on the footslope terrain. It can also be noted
from Fig. 6c that for both sideslopes and footslopes,
the landslide frequency is highest for concave slopes.
4.2.3. Slope aspect
The aspect of a slope can influence landslide
initiation. Moisture retention and vegetation is
reflected by slope aspect, which in turn may affect
soil strength and susceptibility to landslides. If rainfall
has a pronounced directional component by influence
of a prevailing wind, the amount of rainfall falling on
a slope may vary depending on its aspect (Wieczorek
et al., 1997). To investigate the relative relationship
between landslide frequency and slope aspect, the
DEM was used to calculate the aspect of a slope
within the study area. The distribution of aspect
among the mapped landslides is shown in Fig. 6d. It
can be seen that on north-facing slopes the landslide
frequency is relatively low, and it increases with the
orientation angle, reaching the maximum on southfacing slopes, and then declines.
4.2.4. Elevation
The correlation of landslide frequency with elevation is shown in Fig. 6e. At very high elevations there
are mountain summits that usually consist of weathered rocks, whose shear strength is much higher. At
intermediate elevations, however, slopes tend to be
covered by a thin colluvium, which is more prone to
landslides. At very low elevations, the frequency of
landslides is low because the terrain itself is gentle,
and is covered with thick colluvium or/and residual
soils, and a higher perched water table will be
required to initiate slope failure.
4.2.5. Land-use type
Extensive investigations have shown that land-use
cover or vegetation cover, especially of a woody type

221

with strong and large root systems, helps to improve

stability of slopes (Gray and Leiser, 1982; Greenway,
1987). Vegetation provides both hydrological and
mechanical effects that generally are beneficial to
the stability of slopes. Franks (1999) examined natural
terrain landslides in the Tung Chung area, North
Lantau Island, and concluded that a sparsely vegetated
slope is most susceptible to failure. The correlation
between land-use type and landslide frequency is
shown in Fig. 6f. It can be seen that the landslide
frequency on densely grassed land (DGL) is the
highest, followed by moderately grassed land (MGL).
4.2.6. Proximity to drainage line
An analysis has been carried out to assess the
influence of drainage lines on landslide occurrence.
For this purpose, proximity to drainage line is identified, and the results are divided into eight categories.
It can be found that as the distance from drainage line
increases, landslide frequency generally decreases
(Fig. 6g). This can be attributed to the fact that terrain
modification caused by gully erosion may influence
the initiation of landslides.

5. Slope instability modeling

5.1. Logistic multiple regression
Logistic multiple regression is a multivariate
technique which considers several physical parameters that may affect probability. It accepts both binary
and scalar values as the independent variables, which
allows for the use of variables that are not continuous or qualitatively derived. The advantage of logistic multiple regression modeling over other
multivariate statistical techniques including multiple
regression analysis and discriminant analysis is that
the dependent variable can have only two valuesan
event occurring or not occurring, and that predicted
values can be interpreted as probability since they
are constrained to fall in the interval between 0 and
1. In the present study, the dependent variable is a
binary variable representing the presence or absence
of landslides. The technique of logistic multiple
regression yields coefficients for each variable based
on data derived from samples taken across a study
area. These coefficients serve as weights in an

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F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

algorithm which can be used in the GIS database to

produce a map depicting the probability of landslide
occurrence.
Quantitatively, the relationship between the occurrence and its dependency on several variables can be
expressed as:
Prevent 1=1 e

Z

where Pr(event) is the probability of an event occurring. In the present situation, the Pr(event) is the
estimated probability of landslide occurrence. As Z
varies from  1 to + 1, the probability varies from
0 to 1 on an S-shaped curve. Z is the linear combination:
Z B0 B1 X1 B2 X2 . . . Bn Xn
where Bi (i = 0, 1,. . ., n) is the coefficient estimated
from the sample data, n is the number of independent
variables (i.e. landslide-related physical parameters),
and Xi (i = 1, 2,. . ., n) is the independent variable.
However, in a strict sense, it is not a probability since
the dynamic variables triggering landslides, such as
rainfall, are not accounted for. It may be more
appropriate to term it hereafter slope instability or
landslide susceptibility based on the quasi-static physical parameters. In logistic multiple regression, a
coding scheme should be selected for the categorical
variables by creating a new set of variables that
correspond in some way to the original categories.
The number of new variables required to represent a
categorical variable is one less than that of the
number of categories. The coefficients of the logistic
multiple regression model are estimated using the
maximum-likelihood method. In other words, the
coefficients that make the observed results most
likely are selected. Since the relationship between
the independent variables and the probability is nonlinear in the logistic multiple regression model, an
iterative algorithm is necessary for parameter estimation.
Logistic multiple regression modeling is intended
to describe the likelihood of landslide occurrence on a
regional scale, and is very suitable for the assessment
of slope instability, since the observed data consist of
locations (points) or cells with a value of 0 (absence of
landslide) or 1 (presence of landslide). This method
allows a spatial distribution of probabilities or sus-

ceptibility values to be calculated within the GIS

environment.
5.2. Variables selection and sampling
All the physical parameters considered to be relevant to the occurrence of landslides, as noted previously, including lithology, slope gradient, slope
aspect, slope morphology, elevation, land-use type,
and proximity to drainage line, were selected as the
initial independent variables in the present study. For
each variable, the same categorization scheme as that
used to study the relation of landslide frequency with
variable categories previously is adopted for consistency.
For the purpose of the statistical analysis, sample
data representing both absence and presence of landslide must be provided to fit the logistic multiple
regression model. The way in which these data are
obtained will affect both the nature of the regression
relation and the nature and accuracy of the resulting
estimates (Atkinson and Massari, 1998). In this study,
the data set of landslide inventory is an indispensable
data source representative of samples of landslide
presence. All locations of the 2135 landslides studied
were thus used to extract automatically from the
existing data layers the physical parameters that
characterize landslide locations. To eliminate bias in
the sampling process, an equal number of points were
chosen from the not-yet-landslide area as samples
representing the absence of landslide. These locations
were obtained using a spatially uniform sampling
scheme but excluding a 40-m buffer zone for all
landslides so as to minimize the impact of the size
of landslides. Each sample point has its respective
binary value on the presence/absence of landslide, as
well as information on independent variables. These
sample data were then used to input to the logistic
multiple regression algorithm within the SPSS (SPSS,
1997), a desktop statistical software package, to
obtain the coefficients for the logistic multiple regression model.
5.3. Modeling results
A logistic multiple regression model was constructed initially based on the physical parameters as
defined above. Then, at each step, variables are

F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

evaluated for removal one by one if they do not

contribute sufficiently to the regression equation.
The variables included in the model were slope
gradient, lithology, elevation, slope aspect, and landuse cover. In the present analysis, the likelihood-ratio
test was always used for determining whether variables should be added to the model. This involves
estimating the model with each variable eliminated in
turn and looking at the change in the logarithm of
likelihood when each variable is deleted. If the
observed significance level is greater than the probability for remaining in the model (0.1 in this study),
the variable is removed from the model and the model
statistics are recalculated to see if any other variables
are eligible for removal. Both proximity to drainage
line and slope shape were not significant and were
thus eliminated from the stepwise procedure.
The coefficients for the final logistic multiple
regression are shown in Table 1. Note that all the
variables in the model are binary variables representing presences or absences of the corresponding variables. For each variable, the last category is used as

223

the default reference category, and the coefficient of

that category is thus overridden. Fig. 7 is a histogram
of the predicted landslide susceptibility for the training samples used in this analysis. Theoretically, if we
have a model that successfully distinguishes the two
groups based on a classification cutoff value of 0.5,
the cases for which landslide has occurred should be
to the right of 0.5, while the cases for which landslide
has not occurred should be to the left of 0.5. The more
the two groups cluster at their respective ends of the
plot, the better it is. From Fig. 7, it can be shown that
the model produced a concordance rate of 81.7% and
that 85.2% of the actual landslides were correctly
classified with the use of 0.5 as a classification cutoff
value (default in SPSS). By examining this histogram
of predicted susceptibilities, one can see what a different classification rule should be adopted when applying the model to each cell in the study area.
To map future potential slope instability in the
study area, the logistic multiple regression model
was then transferred into the ArcView GIS, and
applied to the independent variables representing the

Table 1
Regression coefficients estimated for the model
Variable
Constant term
Slope gradient ()

Elevation (m)

Categories
0 10
10 15
15 20
20 25
25 30
30 35
35 40
R 40
0 50
50 100
100 150
150 200
200 250
250 300
300 350
350 400
400 450
450 500
500 550
550 600
600 650
650 700
>700

Coefficient

Variable

Categories

Coefficient

 9.755
 10.678
 4.369
 3.374
 2.639
 1.153
 0.863
0.077

Slope aspect

Flat
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
developed land
forested land
shrub-forested land
densely grassed land
moderately grassed land
sparsely grassed land
alluvial, terrace and beach deposits
debris flow deposits and talus
sedimentary rock
metasedimentary rock
intrusive rock
minor intrusive rock
ash tuff, tuffite and tuff breccia
trachydacite, dacite and rhyolite lava
volcaniclastic sedimentary rock

0.431
 0.112
0.468
0.670
0.548
0.882
0.547
0.303

11.214
11.441
11.445
11.181
11.322
11.212
10.959
10.816
10.550
10.434
9.240
9.235
8.629
7.653

Land-use type

Lithology

 7.121
0.033
0.257
0.225
0.258
 7.298
 0.984
 0.233
 0.716
 2.076
 2.413
 0.990
0.076

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F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

Fig. 7. Histogram of predicted landslide susceptibility.

present conditions for each cell within the study area.

For general purpose, the range of the susceptibility to
landslides is classified into 4 categories: (a) Very low
(0 0.2), (b) Low (0.2 0.35), (c) Moderate (0.35
0.5), and (d) High (>0.5). The ranges of the individual
categories were derived based on the histogram of the
estimated susceptibility to landslides shown in Fig. 7.
The final product of the analysis is shown in Fig. 8.
Zones classified as being of very low susceptibility
are distributed in clusters on the coastal lowland and
on the top of high mountains that are characterized by
relatively gentle gradient, while zones of low susceptibility are sparsely distributed. In the zones of
moderate susceptibility, the combination of physical
parameters may adversely influence slope stability.
When disturbed, the slopes are prone to landslides.
The high susceptibility category exhibits a strongly
clustered pattern of spatial distribution. This category
bears a high potential for landslide occurrence, and is
characterized by relatively high elevations and steep
terrain. Most of the locations of the identified landslides actually fall within this category, and existing
ground conditions are very likely to create serious
landslide problems.
Generally, the slope instability map reflects the
potential for initiating a landslide on a slope, but does
not indicate how far the landslide will travel. One of
the possible solutions to this problem is that one may

use this slope instability map and runout behavior of

landslide mass that will be discussed below to roughly
estimate possible travel distance of potential landslides. Land use planners, developers and general
public may use this map to determine areas where
landslides may be a problem in site development.
It should be noted that the complexity of the failure
processes means that any evaluation of stability contains a considerable amount of uncertainty. The reliability of the assessment results depends on a
multitude of factors ranging from the quality of the
database, the introduction of potential errors associated with data entry, manipulation, and analysis within
the GIS, to the limitations and assumptions inherent in
the statistical techniques (Rowbotham and Dudycha,
1998). In addition, temporal and spatial distribution of
rainfall, as a trigger for landslide occurrence in the
study area, is not accounted for, though the landslide
database used in this study including landslide incidence in about 60 years may even-out the spatiotemporal rainfall effects. It might be better to incorporate rainfall variables within the logistic multiple
regression analysis. In this regard, a more detailed
spatio-temporal approach to landslide hazard assessment is being carried out by the authors on a much
larger scale, using a DEM with a resolution of 2
2 m
and spatio-temporal landslide information derived
from multi-temporal aerial photographs by using

F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

225

Fig. 8. Map of relative landslide susceptibility.

aerial photogrammetric method, detailed 1:5000 scale

superficial geological maps and rainfall records.

6. Runout behavior of landslide mass

In landslide hazard assessment, the possible spatial
impact of landslides needs to be estimated. A wellknown index expressing the runout behavior of landslide mass is the angle of the line connecting the head
of the landslide source to the distal margin of the
displaced mass. This angle has been designated as the
angle of reach (Hsu, 1978; Corominas, 1996) or the
angle of apparent friction (Wong and Ho, 1996). The
angle of reach is considered the most suitable and
practical parameter for use in assessing the mobility of
landslide mass in view of its close modeling of the
parameters for characterizing the rate of energy loss
during mass movement and its consideration of the
effect of downslope gradient (Wong and Ho, 1996).

Most studies (e.g. Hsu, 1978; Corominas, 1996;

Wong and Ho, 1996) focus on the relationship
between the angle of reach and the volume of failure.
Generally, the angle of reach decreases (or mobility
increases) with an increase in landslide volume. For
natural terrain landslides in the study area, Wong et
al. (1998) carried out a study on the relation between
the angle of reach and landslide volume based on the
assumption that the mobility of landslide mass can be
significantly affected by the mechanism of mass
movement. They classified the movement of landslide
mass into three modes: (1) gravity (or sliding) mode
without a significant influence from the action of
surface water; (2) hydraulic mode that means landslide mass ran into stream courses and was subsequently subjected to significant action of surface
running water; (3) mixed mode, intermediate between
the above two modes. They concluded that the angle
of reach is highest for landslides of the sliding mode
and lowest for landslides of the hydraulic mode.

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F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

However, for landslide hazard assessment over a

large area, the relationship between the angle of reach
and the volume of landslide mass may not be a
practical method because it is very difficult to predict
the volume of a potential landslide and estimate the
possible mode of mass movement. A possible, more
practical approach may be used to estimate the
variations in the angle of reach and/or travel distance
of landslide mass based on historic records.
In the present study, no attempt has been made to
obtain the relation of the angle of reach with landslide
volume because data on landslide volume are not
available. In the dataset of landslide distribution, the
elevations at the head and the distal margin of landslides, and the horizontal length of landslides are
noted. This permits us to carry out a statistical analysis
of the runout distance of landslide mass and the
relationship between the horizontal length and change
in elevation.
Fig. 9 shows the histogram of horizontal length of
landslides. Of all landslides studied, about 67% are
less than 40 m and about 9% are greater than 100 m in
horizontal length. For landslides with width of < 20
m, 74% are less than 40 m and 5% are greater than
100 m in horizontal length. However, for landslides
with a width of >20 m, about 41% is less than 40 m
and 27% are greater than 100 m in horizontal length.
The average horizontal lengths are 35.3 and 72.6 m
for landslides with a width of < 20 m and landslides
with a width of >20 m, respectively. This indicates
that the horizontal length of landslide mass may
increase with the width of landslides, or landslide
volume.
A linear regression analysis is performed to obtain
the best relation between the horizontal length and
change in elevation of landslides. Outliers are
defined as being significantly different from points
with more than three standard deviations from the
mean. These significant outliers are then excluded
from the analysis and the regression is refitted so as
to obtain an equation of general applicability. Of the
2135 landslides studied, 32 outliers are determined
and then excluded. For landslides with a width of
< 20 m and landslides with a width of >20 m, 28 and
9 outliers are defined and excluded from the total
1691 and 444, respectively. This exclusion of the
outliers is considered to have little influence on the
statistical results used on regional scale, primarily

Fig. 9. Histogram showing the distribution of horizontal length of

landslides.

because the percentage of outliers is quite small. The

results are shown in Fig. 10. It can be seen that the
average angle of reach is 27.7 for all landslides
studied, and that a slight difference in the average
angle of reach exists between the landslides with a
width of < 20 m (29.0) and those with a width of
>20 m (26.7). This indicates that a dependency of
the angle of reach on landslide width or thus landslide volume may exist and that this dependency is

F.C. Dai, C.F. Lee / Geomorphology 42 (2002) 213228

227

runout distance of landslide mass when incorporated

into a map showing slope instability and the digital
elevation model (DEM) within GIS.
7. Conclusions
With Lantau Island of Hong Kong as a study area,
the pertinent landslide characteristics are described,
and the relations of landslide frequency with the
physical parameters contributing to the initiation of
landslides are presented. The runout distance and the
angle of reach of landslides are analyzed. GIS tools
have made possible the production of innovative slope
instability maps. In particular, they have facilitated the
application of the logistic multiple regression analysis
technique. Logistic multiple regression applied to
training samples collected from existing data layers
considered to be relevant to landslide occurrence was
able to predict slope instability at a rate of about 85%
concordance. The predicted susceptibilities generated
from the model within the GIS environment were in
turn used to produce a map of relative landslide
susceptibility. The results of this study indicate that
the model is useful and suitable for the scale adopted
in this study.
Acknowledgements
Funding for this research was provided by the
Research Grants Council of Hong Kong and the Hong
Kong Jockey Club Research and Information Centre
for Landslip Prevention and Land Development, at the
University of Hong Kong. The authors wish to
express their sincere appreciation for the generous
support received from these two organizations.
Fig. 10. Change in elevation plotted as a function of horizontal
length of landslide mass.

not important because the percentage of landslides

involved is quite small.
There are a lot of uncertainties not considered in
the present study. These uncertainties underlying the
model may include the type of material, mechanism of
failure, groundwater, the volume of failure, and geology, etc. The parameters obtained are applicable to
predict the travel distance on regional scales, and
provide an effective means for the assessment of

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