AIEFS Newsletter Nov. 2016

AIEFS NEWSLETTER
AIEFS is a non-profit academic organization founded in 1975 at Bloomsburg State University, Pennsylvania
Volume 9 Issue 2
Association Objectives
Promote interest in
the study of Indian
Economics & Finance
Encourage inquiry
into, and analysis of the
problems facing the
Indian economy
Facilitate communication and discussion
among Scholars
Executive Committee
2013-2015
President
Amitrajeet Batabyal
Rochester Inst. of
Technology
Executive Director
Chandana Chakraborty
Montclair State University
Assistant Executive
Director
Meenakshi Rishi
Seattle University
Treasurer
Artatrana Ratha
St. Cloud University
Elected Members
November 15, 2016
Indian Economy: A Brief Review

Charan Singh 1
The Indian economy has registered robust growth since 2015-16 and has entered the first
quarter of 2016-17 backed by strong consumption. In future, private investment and weak
global demand, however, may restrain growth in 2017-18. Earlier, during 2015-16, delayed
monsoon affected agriculture sector, and contraction in mining and quarrying stalled
industry but acceleration in services and gradual pick-up in monsoons helped moderate
decline in growth. A surge in consumer price inflation, easing up of liquidity and subdued
global economic activity also need to be considered in 2016-17. A review of economic
performance in recent past and key developments that are expected in few months are
presented in the following sections. Finally, select projections made by Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) are presented.
1.
Economic Growth
The output measured by Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices moderated marginally
in Q1 of 2016-17 over previous year, although it was slightly above the average quarterly
growth recorded in 2015-16. 2 The RBI projected a gradual improvement in GVA growth
from 7.3 per cent in Q1 to 7.7 per cent in Q2 of 2016-17 (Table 1).
The deceleration in value added in agriculture and allied activities in Q1 will soon be
reversed as the south-west monsoons were delayed and is bound to gather momentum. A
contraction in mining and quarrying dragged GVA of industry. The output of core
industries as a whole was constrained by a decline in production of coal, crude oil and
natural gas, and deceleration in refinery products and electricity generation. However,
there was a sharp pick-up in steel and cement production which sustained falling output.
However, according to recent information from RBI, released on October 4, 2016, the
environment for industrial activity should improve with recent policy initiatives like
liberalisation of foreign direct investment (FDI) policy in defence, civil aviation,
pharmaceutical and broadcasting.
Kalyan Chakraborty
Emporia State University
Shailendra Gajanan
University of PittsburghBradford
Sushanta Mallick
Queen Mary Univ. London
Sudipta Sarangi
Virginia Tech
Bansi Sawhney
University of Baltimore
Ex-officio Member
Kusum Ketkar
RBI Chair Professor of Economics at IIM Bangalore. The source of analysis is based on latest documents
from Reserve Bank of India, Government of India and International Monetary Fund.
2
India follows the annual year from April 1 to March 31. Accordingly, Q1 represents April 1 to June 30.
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AIEFS Contact: Chandana Chakraborty, Department of Econ. & Finance, Montclair State University, NJ 07043 Phone: (973)-655-4125
AIEFS NEWSLETTER
Table 1: Growth in Gross Value Added

(Per cent)
2014-15 2015-16 2015-16
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
Item
Growth
Share
Q1 Q2
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Q4
Q1
2.3
1.8
6.9 7.1 8.5 10.3 9.2
7.7
I. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
-0.2
1.2
15.4
2.3 2.8 -2.4 -1.7 2.6 2.0 -1.0
II. Industry
6.5
8.8
22.7
9.2 6.2
3.4
(i) Mining & quarrying
10.8
7.4
3.1
16.5 7.0
9.1 10.1 8.5 5.0
(ii) Manufacturing
5.5
9.3
17.5
7.9 5.8
(iii) Electricity, gas, water supply & other

utilities
8.0
6.6
2.2
10.2 8.8
9.4
8.2
61.9
(i) Construction
4.4
3.9
(ii) Trade, hotel, transport, communication

and services
9.8
(iii) Financial, real estate & professional

services
(iv) Public administration, defence and
other services
III. Services
IV. GVA at basic prices
7.1
8.6
-0.4
1.7
6.6 7.3 9.2 11.5
9.3
9.1
8.8
4.4 4.0 7.5
5.6
9.3
9.4
8.0 9.9 11.7 8.3 8.3 7.9
8.5
8.1
8.4
8.5
5.0 5.3
4.9
2.6 5.6 0.8
4.6
4.5
1.5
9.0
19.2
11.6 8.4
6.2 13.1
10.
6.7
0
9.2
9.9
8.1
10.6
10.3
21.6
8.5
12.
12.1
7
9.0 9.3 11.9 10.5
9.1
9.4
10.7
6.6
12.6
4.2
10.
25.3
3
4.1 5.9 6.9
7.2
6.4
12.3
7.1
7.2
100
7.4 8.1
6.2 7.2 7.3
6.9
7.4
7.3
6.7
Source: Reserve Bank of India.
2.
Prices
Consumer price inflation in India rose abruptly, owing to a surge in food inflation in Q1 of 2016-17 before
a sharp correction in the second quarter. Vegetable prices firmed up strongly in 2015-16, owing to seasonal
pressure. International crude prices rose from a recent trough in April and averaged at US$ 44 per barrel by
September 2016.
Headline CPI inflation averaged higher at 5.7 per cent in Q1 of 2016-17, deviating from the earlier forecast
of 5.3 per cent. With short-term price pressures waning in August, inflation appears to be returning to RBIs
April 2016 forecast path. The two main drivers of the upsurge in inflation momentum in April-July were
pulses and vegetables (Chart -1). Sugar also emerged as the second major driver of food inflation during
first half of 2016-17.
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Chart 1: Food Inflation Dynamics April to August 2016
The wholesale price index (WPI), which had been in negative territory for 17 successive months, registered
inflation of 1.4 per cent in Q1 of 2016-17 that rose to 3.7 per cent in August 2016.
Inflation, in near future will most likely be influenced by domestic drivers such as spatial distribution of
food inflation pressures, implementation of the 7th Central Pay Commission and 42 per cent increase in
minimum wages across the board.
3.
Financial Markets
The total stressed assets in commercial banks have increased to 11.5 per cent with the public sector banks
recording a very high figure of 14.5 per cent as at end-March 2016. The stressed assets in the country have
continued to rise over the last few years. The recent deterioration in volume of stressed assets is a reflection
of reclassification of restructured standard advances as non-performing as per the recent asset quality
review by the RBI.
The industrial sector recorded a decline in stressed advances ratio from 19.9 per cent to 19.4 per cent in
2015-16. Retail loans continued to witness least stress amongst all sectors. Basic metal and metal products
accounted for highest stressed advances ratio as of March 2016 and were followed by textiles and
construction. However, stressed assets under infrastructure sector declined to 16.7 per cent in 2015-16
from 21.8 per cent in 2014-15.
4.
Fiscal
The Central Government recorded a fiscal deficit of 3.9 per cent of GDP in 2015-16 and budgeted a target
of 3.5 per cent for 2016-17. In 2016-17, the combined gross fiscal deficit of the general government
(including states) was projected at 6.5 per cent of GDP.
The April to June quarter of 2016 witnessed a significant growth in gross tax revenue led by buoyant income
tax and excise duty collections. Higher petroleum product consumption which resulted in increased union
excise duty collections, along with growth in the service tax receipts due to imposition of Krishi Kalyan
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AIEFS NEWSLETTER
cess at 0.5 per cent helped increase indirect tax collection. Non-tax revenue was, however, lower than last
year as disinvestment failed to pick up despite conducive stock market conditions.
The trend in fiscal performance of the Central Government during April to August 2016 reveals that fiscal
and revenue deficit are much higher than similar period in previous year (Table - 2).
Table 2: Key Fiscal Indicators Central Government Finances (April August)
Indicator
Actual as per cent of BE

2015-16
2016-17
30.3
28.0
a. Tax Revenue (Net)
22.8
26.6
b. Non-Tax Revenue
61.5
32.5
2. Total Non-Debt Receipts
29.7
27.3
3. Non-Plan expenditure
41.6
39.6
a. On Revenue Account
42.0
39.9
37.0
35.3
4. Plan expenditure
40.1
43.0
a. On Revenue Account
40.6
44.8
38.9
38.1
5. Total Expenditure
41.2
40.5
6. Fiscal Deficit
66.5
76.4
7. Revenue Deficit
74.7
91.8
8. Primary Deficit
206.9
565.9
1. Revenue Receipts
b. On Capital Account
b. On Capital Account
Note: BE = Budget Estimates.

5.
External Environment
The Current Account Deficit (CAD) narrowed down to a near-balance scenario and fell to 0.1 per cent of
GDP in Q1 of 2016-17, from 1.2 per cent in the same quarter of the previous year. Reduction in the CAD
has helped in containing external vulnerabilities in 2016-17.
The volume of gold imports declined in Q1 of 2016-17 by a third of its level a year ago. This was due to
destocking of gold purchased in the past. Passive rural demand owing to poor monsoons and supply through
informal channels were some other causes.
In 2016-17, the fall in non- oil non-gold imports continued. In particular, the capital goods segment reflects
the weak domestic investment climate. As a result, merchandise trade deficit shrank sharply to US$ 34.7
billion in the first five months of 2016-17 from US$ 58.4 billion a year ago. Net services exports also
declined by over 10 per cent. All the major segments were in a contractionary phase, but software services
performed strongly.
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In the first quarter of 2016-17, the rupee traded with a depreciating bias at an average of Rs. 67.2 against
the US Dollar. This is a result of the strengthening of the US Dollar against major currencies of emerging
market economies. Higher than expected inflation also applied a downward pressure on the rupee, but the
currency soon bounced back after the Brexit vote with an appreciating bias. The foreign exchange reserves
rose to record high of US $370 billion as on September 30, 2016 before it fell to US $367 billion on October
7, 2016.
6. Industrial Growth
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shows that the General Index is 0.7 per cent lower in August 2016
as compared to same month last year, and the cumulative growth during April to August 2016 stands at 0.3 per cent when compared with similar period last year. The cumulative growth in mining, manufacturing
and electricity during April - August 2016 over the corresponding period in 2015 has been at 0.6, -1.2, and
5.7 per cent, respectively [Table 3(a)].
In the case of industries, seven out of the twenty two industry groups in manufacturing sector have shown
negative growth during August 2016 as compared to corresponding month of the previous year. The
electrical machinery witnessed highest negative growth of -49.4 per cent followed by -22.4 per cent in
furniture manufacturing and -6.6 per cent in wearing apparel. However, radio, TV and communication
equipment has shown highest positive growth of 15.2 percent, followed by 14.6 percent in other transport
equipment and 12.4 percent in basic metals. In August 2016, basic goods grew by 3.2 per cent, capital
goods by -22.2 per cent and intermediate goods by 3.6 per cent (Table 3(b)). Consumer durables and
consumer non-durables recorded a growth of 2.3 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, while the overall
growth in consumer goods was 1.1 percent (Table 3(c)).
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Table 3(a): Index of Industrial Production Sectoral Growth

Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity
Month
201516
2016-17 2015-16
General
2016-17
2015-16
2016-17
2015-16
2016-17
Aug*
4.5
-5.6
6.6
-0.3
5.6
0.1
6.3
-0.7
Apr-Aug
1.4
0.6
4.5
-1.2
3.2
5.7
4.1
-0.3
Table 3(b): Index of Industrial Production Use-based

Basic goods
Month
2015-16
2016-17
Capital goods
2015-16
2016-17
Intermediate goods
2015-16
2016-17
Aug*
3.7
3.2
21.3
-22.2
2.8
3.6
Apr-Aug
4.6
3.9
7.2
-21.4
2.0
3.9
Table 3(c): Index of Industrial Production Use-based

Consumer goods
Month
Total
2015-16
Durables
2016-17
2015-16
2016-17
Non-durables
2015-16
2016-17
Aug*
6.0
1.1
17.0
2.3
-0.9
0.1
Apr-Aug
2.8
0.9
7.5
6.3
0.0
-2.8
*Indices for August 2016 are quick estimates

All figures are growth in percentage over the corresponding period in the previous year.
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, GOI.
7. Goods and Service Tax
The Central Government has been successful in building a consensus for introducing Goods and Services
Tax (GST) in India which is expected to be implemented from April 2017. GST is mainly a single, value
added tax on the supply of goods and services, spanning from producers to consumer. For the business and
industry, GST would imply easy compliance, uniformity of tax rates, and removal of cascading effects. For
central and state governments, the key benefit would be simple and easy to administer tax, and better control
on leakages. The GST will subsume many taxes like excise duty, service tax, some components of customs
duty, sales tax, entertainment tax, octroi, purchase tax, luxury tax, and taxes on lottery, betting and
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gambling, besides providing some exemptions. The implementation of GST will help in improving Indias
ranking in global competiveness as well as ease of doing business.
8. Rationalization of Budgetary Items
An important reform in the next budget of the Union Government would be the abolition of Plan and nonPlan distinction in expenditure budget. The reform has been initiated in view of the policy decision to do
away with the term Plan while making a distinction between socio-economic welfare programs. In India,
a generally popular notion has been that Plan expenditure is good and non-Plan expenditure is a wastage.
This notion has led to a situation where non-Plan expenditure even for maintenance of assets has been
neglected. Consequently, there is a constant motivation for showing higher Plan expenditure both at the
Centre and states. However, accounting practices clearly demonstrate that a clear correspondence cannot
be drawn between Plan and developmental expenditure.
The Plan and non-Plan bifurcation of expenditure had also contributed to a fragmented view of resources
being allocated to various schemes. In view of this fragmentation, it was difficult to estimate cost of
delivering a service to outcome. It is expected that with the removal of this distinction a direct link between
spending and outcome could be established which will be useful in assessing the efficiency of public
expenditure. Thus, the focus of budgeting will now shift to revenue and capital expenditure as had been
originally envisaged in the Constitution. A clear distinction between revenue and capital expenditure is
also necessary for analytical, transparent and efficient decision making. This distinction helps in assessing
operating costs of Government and investment made by it.
There will be no Five Year Plan post 12th Plan as the Planning Commission has been abolished. The
Ministry of Finance is envisaging to shift towards a Medium Term Framework to give greater predictably
to ministries about resource availability. This will enable different ministries to plan their activities with
the medium time horizon and also shift from input based budgeting towards outcome, and output based
budgeting. To achieve the holistic and medium term budgeting, the approach would be top-down and the
resource priorities would be guided by medium and long term strategies. The annual sectoral priorities and
allocation would accordingly be made. The medium term projections are planned based on the basis of
Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, 2003. Incidentally, FRBM is also under
review which is expected to be completed before the next Union Budget.
The Ministries in the Central Government would set an outcome/output framework and would carry out
scheme wise allocations. The government is making an endeavor to move towards giving ministries
maximum flexibility to re-appropriate and adjust amongst schemes and components of expenditure, within
a scheme. The main aim is to maximize achievement of agreed objectives. The ministries are also expected
to prepare their statement of budget expenditure and outcome budgets. The outcome budgets would be
approved by the Ministry as well as NITI Ayog.
Each department and ministry is expected to prepare an outcome/output statement against each scheme and
project allocation. The deliverables have to be given in measurable and quantitative terms on annual basis.
The outputs will be designed over a period of 3 years. Similarly, the government is attempting to have a
general budget, as well as, earmarking separate allocation for the scheduled castes and tribes. The
government is also rationalizing centrally sponsored schemes (CSS). The existing 66 CSS have been
rationalized into 28 umbrella schemes of which 6 schemes have been categorized as most important
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schemes, and 20 more schemes as core schemes. A standing committee is envisaged under the
chairmanship of CEO, NITI Ayog with nominees from every state/union territories with the provision to
meet at least twice a year for smooth implementation of CSS.
The Central Government is also making efforts to financially integrate, the North East with rest of India.
Accordingly, all ministries/departments are required to spend 10 per cent of the gross budget support from
their allocation under central schemes for the benefit of North Eastern region and Sikkim.
The Central Government is also adopting a comprehensive approach for efficient management of its
investments in Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) by addressing financial issues such as capital
restructuring, dividend, bonus share, etc. The resource management issues for a CPSE are important
because the government plans to spur economic growth through efficient management of Governments
investment in CPSEs.
9. No Separate Railway Budget
A separate Railway Budget started in 1924, following the recommendations by William Acworth, British
railway economist. As Railways were a commercial enterprise, and operated by different entities in India,
the Government consolidated the operations of all railways working in India since 1853. The practice
continued for long into the Independence period, initially justified on the ground that Railways are special
and serve a social objective in transporting goods in absence of any well-developed alternative. Since then,
an excellent network of road-ways and airlines have been established, diminishing the special role and
along with it focus on railways in Indian economy.
In recent years, there was no justification of having a separate Railway Budget, as many similar entities are
covered under the Union Budget like postal services, and many public sector enterprises. A separate budget
presented to the Parliament can distort priorities by unduly exposing railways to Parliamentary politics,
limited to introducing or running of special trains to favored constituencies. Once, railway budget is
subsumed in Union budget, Railway officials can focus professionally on pertinent issues like commercial
viability of operations, appropriate pricing of passenger and freight fares, and technological upgradation.
The operations of suburban segments would also be examined on a professional basis. The Railway ministry
could focus on policy issues to enhance efficiency and profitability in their operations without worrying
about political scrutiny and ramifications. Earlier, since 1949, a number of Committees had suggested the
merger of Railway Budget in the Union Budget but for political reasons was not accomplished.
Once the Railways are insulated from annual ritual of distribution of goodies, dictated by political
considerations, the focus hopefully, will shift to modernization of the network, to compete commercially
with other modes of transport available in the country, both passenger and freight. Therefore, consumers
can expect professionalism in working of railways, better quality of services, modern equipment and safety
measures, and market determined dynamic and competitive fares. Similarly, out of daily public scrutiny,
Railways can focus on a leaner and technologically superior organizational structure, as is successfully
being followed by Konkan Railways. Finally, the merged Budget, veiled away from political gaze, would
invite a rigorous scrutiny by the CAG, seeking rationality, transparency and accountability in policy and
decision-making, eventually leading to safe-guarding tax-payers interest.
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10. Monetary Policy Committee

Following certain key amendments to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act on June 27, 2016, the RBI was
explicitly provided with the legislative mandate to operate the monetary policy framework of the country
for the first time in its history. The amendments called for constitution of a monetary policy committee
(MPC). Henceforth, MPC shall determine the policy rate required to achieve inflation target set at four per
cent with upper and lower tolerance levels of six per cent and two per cent, respectively, by the Central
Government on August 5, 2016.
The Government and the RBI have constituted six member MPC with the final vote in the hands of the RBI
Governor. The newly constituted MPC, under the recently appointed RBI Governor Dr. Urjit Patel, took its
first decision in October 4, 2016 to lower the bank rate, repo rate and reverse repo rate by 25 basis points
to 6.75, 6.25 and 5.75 per cent, respectively. The minutes of the meeting of MPC on October 3 and 4, 2016
were released for the first time on October 18, 2016. All six members of MPC voted in favour of reducing
the policy rate by 25 basis points.
11. Projections
On prices, RBI expects CPI inflation to decline from 5.7 per cent in Q1 of 2016-17 to 5.0 per cent in Q3
before it firms up moderately to 5.3 per cent in Q4 (Figure 1). While the benign crude prices may provide
support, it would be important to watch effects of depreciation in the value of rupee. Readiness of the
government for supply-side management would also be essential to fend off pressure from food price.
Figure 1: Quarterly Projection of CPI Inflation
On growth, RBI has projected a rate of 7.6 per cent for 2016-17, with a range of 7.6 - 7.7 per cent in Q2Q4 (Figure 2). For 2017-18, RBI assuming a normal monsoon, fiscal consolidation and no external shock(s),
projects a growth rate of 7.9 per cent in real GVA while keeping a watchful eye on global demand which
may negate this growth.
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Figure 2: Quarterly Projection of Growth in GVA
In India, domestic demand according to IMF, is projected to remain strong in 2016-17

(Figure 3).
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Figure 3: Macroeconomic Projections
Macroeconomic Projections
40
37.5
35
Gross Investment
32.5
30
27.5
25
Per cent of GDP
22.5
20
17.5
15
12.5
GDP
10
7.5
5
2.5
Current Account
Deficit
0
-2.5
Annual Growth in Real GDP (per cent)
Gross Savings
GFD of General
Government
-5
-7.5
-10
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Source: International Monetary Fund.
The near-term outlook for the Indian economy is characterised by a continuing slow recovery, underpinned
by consumption spending and by public investment at the margin. With regard to inflation, the outlook has
improved for 2016-17, but beyond, the prospects of reaching 4 per cent, which is the centre of the target
band, requires close monitoring. Recent initiatives and reforms by the government like Make in India, are
expected to improve infrastructure, and improvements in food supply management are expected to help
contain inflation in medium-term. The uncertainty associated with the Brexit, the US presidential election
and the still tenuous effects of US monetary policy and Chinese re-balancing, could undermine global
economic activity with implications for Indian economy.
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AIEFS Program at ASSA 2017 Chicago, IL

2017 Annual Meeting of the Allied Social Science Association (ASSA)
Friday, January 6, 2017

AIEFS Reception: 6:00 PM 8:00 PM, Sheraton Grand Chicago, Jackson Park
Reception Speaker: Madhu Khanna, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Topic: Promoting Corporate Social Responsibility in India: Motivations and Effectiveness
Invitation: Members, colleagues, friends and others
Saturday, January 07, 2017

AIEFS Sessions
Jan 07, 2017 10:15 pm-12:15 pm, Sheraton Grand Chicago, Jackson Park
Association of Indian Economic & Financial Studies
Political Economy and Economic Development in India

Chair: CHANDANA CHAKRABORTY (Montclair State University)
Paper 1: Is Partisan Alignment Electorally Rewarding? Evidence from Village Council Elections in India
AUTHOR 1: SUBHASISH DEY (University of Manchester)
AUTHOR 2: KUNAL SEN (University of Manchester)
Paper 2: Child Labor, Global Trade Policies, and Credit Availability: The Nexus
AUTHOR 1: BADRI NARAYANAN GOPALAKRISHNAN (Infinite-Sum Modelling, Inc.)
AUTHOR 2: TERRIE L. WALMSLEY (Impact Econ)
AUTHOR 3: MEENAKSHI RISHI (Seattle University)
Paper 3: Corruption, Third Party Influence, and the Poor Implementation of Public Welfare Programs in
Developing Countries
AUTHOR1: SAKINIL ROY (Athabasca University)
Paper 4: Effort Application in an Arranged Marriage: A Game-Theoretic Analysis

AUTHOR1: AMITRAJEET A. BATABYAL (Rochester Institute of Technology)
AUTHOR2: SEUNG JICK YOO (Sookmyung Womens University)
Paper 5: Intergenerational Educational Persistence among Daughters: Evidence From India

AUTHOR: MEHTABUL AZAM (Oklahoma State University)
Paper 6: Economic Growth and Development in India and SAARC Countries

AUTHOR: KESHAB BHATTARAI (University of Hull)
Discussants:
H. K. PRADHAN (XLRI-Xavier School of Management)
CHANDANA CHAKRABORTY (Montclair State University)
SHAILENDRA GAJANAN (University of Pittsburgh-Bradford)
DWEEPOBOTEE BRAHMA (Western Michigan University)
VALERIE CERRA (International Monetary Fund)
USHA NAIR-REICHERT (Georgia Institute of Technology)
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Jan 07, 2017 12:30 pm-2:15 pm, Sheraton Grand Chicago, Jackson Park
Association of Indian Economic & Financial Studies
Macroeconomics and Financial Sector in India

Presiding: AMITRAJEET A. BATABYAL (Rochester Institute of Technology)
Paper 1: Does Social Identity Matter in Consumption Distance? Household-Level Evidence in Post-Reform
India
AUTHOR1: PRASHANT GUPTA (Queen Mary University of London)
AUTHOR2: SUSHANTA MALLICK (Queen Mary University of London)
AUTHOR3: TAPAS MISHRA (University of Southampton)
Paper 2: Technology Shocks and Business Cycles in India

AUTHOR1: SHESADRI BANERJEE (Centre for Studies in Social Sciences)
AUTHOR2: PARANTAP BASU (Durham University)
Paper 3: Regulatory Reforms and Changes in Capital and Risk in Indian Bank
AUTHOR 1: USHA NAIR-REICHERT (Georgia Institute of Technology)
AUTHOR 1: VIJAYA SUBRAHMANYAM (Mercer University)
AUTHOR 1: SRIKAR POLASANAPALLI (Birla Institute of Technology and Science)
Paper 4: Mutual Fund Performance Using Unconditional Multi-Factor Models: Evidence from Ind
AUTHOR1: PANKJ K. AGARWAL (School of Management Sciences-Lucknow)
AUTHOR2: H. K. PRADHAN (XLRI-Xavier School of Management)
Paper 5: Realized Volatility and Correlation in the Indian Stock Market

AUTHOR 1: DIMITRIOS VORTELINOS (University of Lincoln)
AUTHOR 2: SHRABANI SHAHA (University of Lincoln)
Paper 6: Booms, Crises and Recoveries

AUTHOR1: VALERIE CERRA (International Monetary Fund)
AUTHOR1: SWETA C. SAXENA (International Monetary Fund)
Discussants:
BANANI NANDI (AT&T Laboratories)
SUBARNA SAMANTA (College of New Jersey)
AMIT GHOSH (Illinois Wesleyan University)
MEENAKSHI RISHI (Seattle University)
KESHAB BHATTARAI (University of Hull)
SAKTINIL ROY (Athabasca University)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Saturday, January 7, 2017

AIEFS Executive Committee Meeting: 4:30 PM 6:00 PM
Sheraton Grand Chicago, Lincoln Boardroom
Invitation: Executive Committee Members only
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Membership Application Form

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O 3. AIEFS sessions at Eastern Economics Association, generally in February/March
every year
O 4. AIEFS sessions at ASSA, held generally in the first week of January every year
O 5. Contribute short, 1-2 page articles to the AIEFS Newsletter, occasionally or on a
regular basis
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____ Life ($ 350), ____ Full ($ 40), ____Family ($ 50),____ Student ($20)
(Except Life, all other categories of membership are for a calendar year)
Kindly make the check payable to the Association of Indian Economic and Financial Studies
(AIEFS) and mail it, along with this completed form to the Executive Director at the address
below:
Chandana Chakraborty
Department of Economics & Finance
Montclair State University
Upper Montclair, NJ 07043
14 | P a g e
AIEFS NEWSLETTER
About AIEFS
AIEFS regularly sponsors sessions at the annual ASSA, Western Economic Association and
Eastern Economic Association meetings. It also holds biennial meetings either in the US or in
India. First biennial meeting in India was held in collaboration with t he Research and Information
System for Developing countries (RIS) in June 2009 in Delhi. The 2013 biennial meeting was
held in collaboration with the Indira Gandhi Institute of Developments Research (IGIDR) in Mumbai.
The 2015 biennial meeting was held in the University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India during August
3-4, 2015. The 2017 biennial meeting is being planned at the current time and is likely to be held in
Bhubaneswar, India.
AIEFS brings out Newsletter twice a year fall and in spring. From time to time, AIEFS also
publishes edited books or proceeding of papers presented at ASSA and biennial meetings. In recent
years, papers have been published in special issues of peer reviewed journals like South Asia
Economic Journal, International Journal of Economic Policy in emerging Economies and
International Journal of Business and Emerging Markets.
For further information of AIEFS or to become a member, please visit the website:
www.aiefs.org. Or contact executive director:
Chandana Chakraborty, Ph.D.
15 | P a g e

AIEFS Newsletter Nov. 2016

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AIEFS NEWSLETTER

November 15, 2016

Indian Economy: A Brief Review

Table 1: Growth in Gross Value Added

6.9 7.1 8.5 10.3 9.2

I. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

2.3 2.8 -2.4 -1.7 2.6 2.0 -1.0

(i) Mining & quarrying

9.1 10.1 8.5 5.0

(iii) Electricity, gas, water supply & other

(ii) Trade, hotel, transport, communication

(iii) Financial, real estate & professional

IV. GVA at basic prices

6.6 7.3 9.2 11.5

4.4 4.0 7.5

8.0 9.9 11.7 8.3 8.3 7.9

2.6 5.6 0.8

9.0 9.3 11.9 10.5

4.1 5.9 6.9

6.2 7.2 7.3

Source: Reserve Bank of India.

Chart 1: Food Inflation Dynamics April to August 2016

Source: Reserve Bank of India.

Actual as per cent of BE

a. Tax Revenue (Net)

2. Total Non-Debt Receipts

Note: BE = Budget Estimates.

Table 3(a): Index of Industrial Production Sectoral Growth

Table 3(b): Index of Industrial Production Use-based

Table 3(c): Index of Industrial Production Use-based

*Indices for August 2016 are quick estimates

10. Monetary Policy Committee

Source: Reserve Bank of India.

Figure 2: Quarterly Projection of Growth in GVA

Source: Reserve Bank of India.

In India, domestic demand according to IMF, is projected to remain strong in 2016-17

Figure 3: Macroeconomic Projections

Per cent of GDP

Annual Growth in Real GDP (per cent)

AIEFS Program at ASSA 2017 Chicago, IL

Friday, January 6, 2017

Saturday, January 07, 2017

Political Economy and Economic Development in India

Paper 4: Effort Application in an Arranged Marriage: A Game-Theoretic Analysis

Paper 5: Intergenerational Educational Persistence among Daughters: Evidence From India

Paper 6: Economic Growth and Development in India and SAARC Countries

Macroeconomics and Financial Sector in India

Paper 2: Technology Shocks and Business Cycles in India

Paper 5: Realized Volatility and Correlation in the Indian Stock Market

Paper 6: Booms, Crises and Recoveries

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Saturday, January 7, 2017

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