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THEMATIC
Over the past four years we have used our greatness framework to
identify structurally strong businesses in India. These companies were
identified based on their relentless improvement in financial
performance over long periods (usually, six years). Using FY15 annual
reports, we now refresh our annual list of ten baggers. The first four
iterations (for FY11 to FY14) have cumulatively delivered ~26% CAGR
returns (over the past four years) vs BSE500 CAGR return of 14%. The
sub-BSE500 tenbaggers list has delivered ~55% CAGR returns over the
last three years.
Our relentless focus on franchises that keep improving
Whilst Good & Clean remains our preferred tactical way of playing Indian
equities (click here for the 2nd September G&C portfolio), in a country like India
the robustness of the economy ensures that well-managed companies that are
focused on building cash-generative franchises have a high chance of doing
well. Structural plays, like the ones we aim to identify in our ten-bagger
portfolios, are financially strong firms (with credible management teams) that
remain consistent performers on a cross-cyclical basis. Both in live portfolios and
back-tests, the approach delivers impressive alpha in most years whilst investing
in high-quality franchises.
A back-test of the greatness framework has yielded impressive returns
1,000
20.1% CAGR
800
600
15.1% CAGR
400
13.6% CAGR
200
Greatness
model
Universe
(average
basis)
BSE500
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Source: Ambit Capital research. Note: The backtest is based on annual rebalancing with forward-looking
returns being calculated from December 31 of year X to December 31 of year X+1; for example, for the
most recent year, the framework included numbers until FY14 and returns have been calculated from 31
December 2014 to 31 December 2015.
Ticker
Company
Mcap
(US$ mn)
Attractive valuations*
ITC IN
ITC
IDEA IN
Idea Cellular
HCLT IN
HCL Tech.
TCS IN
TCS
GPPV IN
Gujarat Pipavav#
MRF IN
MRF
TTMT IN
Tata Motors
Moderate valuations**
TRP IN
Torrent Pharma
Rich valuations***
LPC IN
Lupin Ltd.
PSYS IN
Persistent Systems+
KJC IN
Kajaria
BRIT IN
Britannia+
SKB IN
GSKConsumer+
PI IN
PI Industries
MTCL IN
Mindtree+
PAG IN
Page Industries
FNXC IN
Finolex Cables
SI IN
Supreme Inds
BRGR IN
Berger Paints
EIM IN
Eicher Motors+
TVSL IN
TVS Motor
SF IN
Sundram Fasteners
AJP IN
Ajanta Pharma#
Hatsun
HTSMF IN
Agro#
LOG IN
La Opala#
HUVR IN
HUL#
VO IN
Vinati Organics#
MRCO IN Marico#
AIAE IN
AIA Engg#+
ATLP IN
Atul Ltd.#
39,216
7,328
17,856
70,083
1,142
2,579
18,462
3,679
12,139
777
1,175
5,353
4,101
1,350
1,826
2,270
576
1,314
2,742
7,131
2,046
520
1,753
676
514
27,900
360
4,363
1,254
756
Analyst Details
Gaurav Mehta, CFA
+91 22 3043 3255
gauravmehta@ambitcapital.com
Prashant Mittal, CFA
+91 22 3043 3218
prashantmittal@ambitcapital.com
Saurabh Mukherjea, CFA
+91 22 3043 3174
saurabhmukherjea@ambitcapital.com
Ambit Capital and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Ambit Capital
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision.
Strategy
CONTENTS
Philosophy and framework. 3
Quantifying greatness. 5
Does this approach work?........................................................................................ 6
Ten baggers 5.0... 8
Greatness framework on sub-BSE500 firms.12
Performance check: Jan 2015 ten-bagger list.... 13
Performance check: Jan 2015s sub-BSE500 firms. 14
Valuations - A long-term perspective!..................................................................... 15
Appendix January 2016 ten-baggers business activity description.17
Page 2
Strategy
a. Investment (gross
block)
b.
Conversion
of
investment to sales
(asset turnover, sales)
c.
Pricing
discipline
(PBIT margin)
e. Cash generation
(CFO)
d.
Balance
sheet
discipline (D/E, cash
ratio)
We rank the BSE500 universe of firms (excluding financial services firms and
excluding firms with insufficient data) on our greatness score, which consists of six
equally weighted headingsinvestments, conversion to sales, pricing discipline,
balance sheet discipline, cash generation and EPS improvement, and return ratio
improvement.
Under each of these six headings, we further look at two kinds of improvements:
A complete list of factors that are considered whilst quantifying greatness has been
provided in Exhibit 2 on the next page.
Page 3
Strategy
Exhibit 2: Factors used for quantifying greatness
Head
Criteria
Investments
a.
b.
Conversion to sales
a.
b.
Pricing discipline
c.
d.
a.
b.
a.
b.
c.
d.
a.
b.
c.
d.
a.
b.
c.
d.
Source: Ambit Capital research. Note: * Rather than comparing one annual endpoint to another annual endpoint
(say, FY10 to FY15), we prefer to average the data out over FY10- 12 and compare that to the averaged data
from FY13-15. This gives a more consistent picture of performance (as opposed to simply comparing FY10 to
FY15).
We rank the BSE500 universe of firms (excluding financial services firms) on this score
to arrive at this years rankings on this measure of structural strength. After removing
financial services firms and firms with insufficient data, 399 firms from the BSE500
were ranked based on this measure. The highlights from the distribution of these
firms on our greatness score are displayed on the next page.
On page 6, we show a back-test of this framework over FY04-2015 and find that it
works on a consistent basis. On pages 14-15, we show the real world performance of
these sets of portfolios over the last year and demonstrate that the construct works in
the real world as well. The lists from the BSE500 universe have cumulatively delivered
~26% CAGR returns (over the past four years) vs 14% CAGR returns for the BSE500
Index. The lists from the sub-BSE500 universe that we had published in our previous
three iterations have cumulatively delivered ~55% CAGR returns (over the past three
years) vs ~17% CAGR returns for the BSE Small-cap Index.
On pages 8-12, we delve into this years list of 30 firms that constitute our ten
baggers 5.0. This is followed by a list of 10 firms from the sub-BSE500 universe that
do well on the same framework.
Page 4
Strategy
Quantifying greatness
From the universe of BSE500 firms, after removing financial services firms and firms
with insufficient data, 399 firms were scored on the six headings highlighted on the
previous page. The cut-off for greatness was placed at 67%* and only 80 firms (20%
of the total population of 399 firms) could manage a score above this cut-off.
Exhibit 3: Distribution of firms on the greatness score (total population: 399 firms)
90%-100%
80%-90%
Only 80 firms
score >67%
70%-80%
87 firms
(between 50%
and 67%)
60%-70%
Zone of greatness
50%-60%
40%-50%
20%-30%
10%-20%
30%-40%
232 firms
score < 50%
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0%-10%
No. of firms
Zone of mediocrity
In the next exhibit, we present key financial data on the three zones defined above:
Mediocrity (232 firms), Good but not great (87 firms), and Great (80 firms).
Great
Number of firms
232
87
80
636
852
1,148
9%
26%
45%
11%
11%
16%
7%
15%
19%
-3%
17%
29%
4%
17%
32%
10%
14%
15%
9%
18%
24%
11%
19%
25%
0.31
0.13
0.31
FY16 P/E
22.8
24.2
21.3
FY16 P/B
2.3
4.1
4.5
Source: Capitaline, Ambit Capital research; Note: All figures are based on median values of the firms analysed
*Mcap as of 4 January 2016. # indicates share price performance from 04 January 2013 to 04 January 2016.
With regard to fundamentals, the superiority of the great firms compared with the
other two groups is evident in Exhibit 4 above. Of these 80 great firms, we identify
the ones that perform the best on our accounting and corporate governance filters,
and this leads to our final list of 30 great companies. Before we move onto these 30
potential ten baggers, we shall discuss a back-test of the greatness framework in the
next section to see whether great firms have indeed managed to deliver superior
returns historically.
Page 5
Strategy
800
600
15.1% CAGR
400
13.6% CAGR
Greatness
model
Universe
(average
basis)
BSE500
200
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: The backtest is based on annual rebalancing with forward-looking returns
being calculated from December 31 of year X to December 31 of year X+1; for example, for the most recent
year, the framework included numbers until FY14 and returns have been calculated from 31 December 2014 to
31 December 2015.
Outperformance was also seen on a median basis. A median firm in the universe has
delivered 5.0% CAGR returns (over 2004-2015). In contrast, a median great firm
has managed to deliver 9.1% CAGR returns, thus resulting in an outperformance of
~4.1% (on a CAGR basis) for great firms vs. the universe.
Exhibit 6: Median performance of Great firms vs the Universe (2004-2015)
350
300
250
200
150
9.1% CAGR
Greatness
model
5.0% CAGR
Universe
(median
basis)
100
50
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: The backtest is based on annual rebalancing with forward-looking returns
being calculated from December 31 of year X to December 31 of year X+1; for example, for the most recent
year, the framework included numbers until FY14 and returns have been calculated from 31 December 2014 to
31 December 2015.
Page 6
Strategy
Note that this back-test does not consider accounting or management quality, which
we believe are factors that should improve the performance of our live portfolios.
Thats what the next section of this note focuses on.
Before we delve into this years list of 30 firms that constitute our ten baggers 5.0, the
following two exhibits show the performance of the live ten-baggers portfolio since
January 2012 when we first unveiled this framework. Whilst the BSE500 ten baggers
have managed to outperform the BSE500 Index by ~53% points (on a cumulative
basis) over the last four years, the ten baggers from the sub-BSE500 universe that we
highlighted in the previous three iterations have managed to outperform the BSE
Small-cap Index by a whopping 115% points (on a cumulative basis).
Outperformance for all our live ten-baggers from the BSE500 and the sub-BSE500
universe demonstrates that the construct works in the real world as well.
Exhibit 7: Performance of the BSE500 ten-bagger portfolios (since 19 January 2012)
80
70
52.6
Return (%)
60
43.4
50
40
30
20
6.7
9.8
2012
2013
10
(10)
2014
index return
2015
cumulative alpha
Return (%)
100
50
41.4
2013
2014
2015
(50)
Small-caps tenbagger iteration return
cumulative alpha
Page 7
Strategy
That fall in the Zone of Trouble in our accounting model (i.e. the bottom 4
deciles on accounting quality; for a full exposition of our accounting filter, please
refer to our 17th December 2015 note);
Firms with suspect corporate governance; and
Firms with structural issues around the underlying business (i.e. businesses where
a great past is not likely to translate into a great future).
An overlay of accounting,
corporate governance and
subjective checks to the greatness
framework is the last but critical
step
Note that the accounting filter mentioned in the first bullet eliminates 19 out of the
80 firms on the long list. Of remaining 61 firms, 31 are eliminated by the second and
third bullets.
There are 9 changes (implying 30% churn) with respect to last years list (refer to our
5th January 2015 note). A summary of these changes is as follows:
Exits: Gateway Distriparks, Monsanto India, Astral Poly Technik, Ipca, VST
Industries, eClerx Services, Coal India and Wabco India drop out on account of
deterioration in their greatness scores. We exclude Bata India on account of our
sector analysts negative view on its business.
Gateway Distriparks
Investment in gross block, balance sheet discipline, cash flows improvement, improvement in return ratios
Monsanto India
Investment in gross block, sales improvement, cash flows improvement, balance sheet discipline
Ipca Laboratories
VST Industries
Investment in gross block, sales improvement, cash flows improvement, balance sheet discipline
eClerx Services
Sales improvement, pricing discipline, balance sheet discipline, improvement in return ratios
Investment in gross block, sales improvement, pricing discipline, PAT and cash flows improvement, balance sheet discipline,
improvement in return ratios
Sales improvement, pricing discipline, PAT and cash flows improvement, improvement in return ratios
Coal India*
Wabco India
Source: Ace Equity, Capitaline, Ambit Capital research * We have a Bottom-up Buy on this stock
Page 8
Strategy
We have bottom-up coverage with BUYs on 12 of these names. These are: ITC, PI
Industries, HCL Techn, Page Industries, Finolex Cables, TCS, Tata Motors, Supreme
Industries, Berger Paints, TVS Motor, HUL and Marico.
Exhibit 10: January 2016 ten baggers - Valuation perspective
Sr. No. Ticker
Company
Mcap
(US$ mn)
P/B EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/B
EV/EBITDA
Overall cheap on
how many counts?
Attractive valuations*
1
ITC IN
ITC Ltd.
IDEA IN
Idea Cellular
HCLT IN
HCL Tech.
TCS IN
TCS
GPPV IN
Gujarat Pipavav
MRF IN
MRF
TTMT IN
Tata Motors
39,216
26.1
7.7
16.8
YES
YES
YES
7,328
15.3
17,856
16.0
2.1
5.7
4.5
12.0
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
70,083
1,142
22.1
8.3
16.0
23.0
3.5
16.3
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
2,579
9.8
2.6
5.4
YES
YES
18,462
10.4
2.0
4.4
YES
YES
3,679
24.4
8.3
11.5
YES
12,139
35.3
8.5
24.7
Moderate valuations**
8
TRP IN
Torrent Pharma
Rich valuations***
9
LPC IN
Lupin Ltd.
10
PSYS IN
Persistent Systems#
777
17.4
3.5
10.3
11
KJC IN
Kajaria
1,175
38.8
9.5
19.1
12
BRIT IN
Britannia#
5,353
47.0
24.4
30.2
13
SKB IN
GSKConsumer#
4,101
42.9
11.9
30.7
14
PI IN
PI Industries Ltd.
1,350
32.1
8.6
21.0
15
MTCL IN
Mindtree#
1,826
21.4
5.6
15.0
16
PAG IN
Page Industries
2,270
66.0
32.8
38.9
17
FNXC IN
Finolex Cables
576
19.0
2.9
12.3
18
SI IN
Supreme Industries
1,314
27.3
6.6
14.5
19
BRGR IN
Berger Paints
2,742
59.1
13.4
30.3
20
EIM IN
Eicher Motors#
7,131
61.4
15.8
27.7
21
TVSL IN
TVS Motor
2,046
38.4
9.4
22.0
22
SF IN
Sundram Fasteners
23
AJP IN
Ajanta Pharma
24
HTSMF IN
25
LOG IN
La Opala
26
HUVR IN
Hindustan Unilever
520
24.2
4.0
12.1
1,753
34.2
12.1
22.2
676
78.5
18.1
17.1
514
70.3
16.5
41.2
27,900
42.6
44.0
31.5
27
VO IN
Vinati Organics
360
19.7
5.0
11.2
28
MRCO IN
Marico Ltd.
4,363
46.1
14.4
28.1
29
AIAE IN
AIA Engineering#
1,254
19.9
3.8
12.3
30
ATLP IN
Atul Ltd.
756
19.5
4.4
12.4
Page 9
Strategy
Exhibit 11: January 2016 ten baggers financial snapshot
Sr.
No.
Ticker
Company
3-yr
Mcap 6M ADV share
(US$ mn) (US$ mn) price
CAGR
3-yr Net
Sales
CAGR
3-yr adj.
PAT
CAGR
3-yr
avg
RoE
FY16
P/E
FY16
P/B
Attractive valuations*
1
ITC IN
ITC Ltd.
IDEA IN
Idea Cellular
39,216
34.1
5%
14%
16%
16%
34%
34%
50%
(0.5)
26.1
7.7
7,328
10.0
7%
17%
65%
40%
14%
12%
12%
0.6
15.3
2.1
HCLT IN
HCL Tech.
17,856
24.5
39%
21%
44%
29%
21%
37%
43%
0.0
16.0
4.5
4
5
TCS IN
TCS
70,083
45.0
22%
25%
23%
41%
27%
41%
52%
(0.4)
22.1
8.3
GPPV IN
Gujarat Pipavav
1,142
2.4
49%
21%
81%
80%
38%
14%
14%
(0.2)
23.0
3.5
MRF IN
MRF#
2,579
7.7
45%
11%
37%
39%
11%
23%
28%
0.0
9.8
2.6
TTMT IN
Tata Motors
18,462
56.8
7%
17%
0%
24%
9%
27%
21%
0.5
10.4
2.0
20%
31%
18%
19%
36%
30%
0.8
24.4
8.3
Moderate valuations**
8
TRP IN
Torrent Pharma
3,679
4.5 59%
Rich valuations***
9
LPC IN
Lupin Ltd.
10
PSYS IN
Persistent Systems
11
KJC IN
Kajaria
12,139
34.0
44%
22%
40%
70%
23%
30%
36%
(0.2)
35.3
8.5
777
1.1
34%
24%
26%
22%
17%
21%
28%
(0.6)
17.4
3.5
1,175
1.5
61%
19%
30%
26%
13%
30%
32%
0.3
38.8
9.5
5,353
9.7
80%
13%
46%
33%
8%
54%
57%
(0.5)
47.0
24.4
(1.1)
42.9
11.9
12
BRIT IN
13
SKB IN
14
PI IN
Britannia Industries
Ltd.
GSKConsumer
Healthcare Ltd.
PI Industries Ltd.
1,350
2.8
74%
30%
46%
21%
14%
28%
33%
0.1
32.1
8.6
15
MTCL IN
Mindtree Ltd.
1,826
4.6
61%
23%
33%
43%
17%
29%
37%
(0.5)
21.4
5.6
16
PAG IN
Page Industries
2,270
3.1
58%
30%
29%
11%
20%
59%
64%
0.4
66.0
32.8
17
FNXC IN
Finolex Cables
576
0.4
62%
6%
11%
-4%
8%
17%
20%
(0.3)
19.0
2.9
18
SI IN
Supreme Industries
1,314
0.9
32%
13%
10%
20%
13%
32%
37%
0.1
27.3
6.6
4,101
1.2
19%
16%
18%
16%
16%
33%
49%
19
BRGR IN
Berger Paints
2,742
1.1
50%
14%
13%
25%
9%
24%
25%
0.2
59.1
13.4
20
EIM IN
Eicher Motors
7,131
20.3
84%
15%
26%
37%
9%
21%
25%
(0.6)
61.4
15.8
2,046
7.9
85%
12%
30%
-45%
4%
19%
18%
0.5
38.4
9.4
520
0.3
48%
4%
10%
-20%
7%
15%
14%
1.0
24.2
4.0
21
TVSL IN
TVS Motor
22
SF IN
Sundram Fasteners
23
AJP IN
Ajanta Pharma
1,753
4.4
134%
30%
60%
58%
26%
41%
50%
(0.1)
34.2
12.1
24
HTSMF IN
Hatsun Agro
Products
676
0.1
67%
22%
13%
6%
4%
35%
19%
2.7
78.5
18.1
25
LOG IN
La Opala
514
1.4
124%
25%
49%
48%
24%
34%
39%
(0.4)
70.3
16.5
26
HUVR IN
Hindustan Unilever
27,900
18.8
17%
11%
12%
2%
15%
103%
146%
(1.4)
42.6
44.0
27
VO IN
Vinati Organics
360
0.3
45%
20%
28%
79%
21%
31%
32%
0.1
19.7
5.0
28
MRCO IN
Marico Ltd.
4,363
5.3
27%
13%
21%
18%
13%
29%
31%
(0.0)
46.1
14.4
1,254
1.0
39%
16%
33%
48%
21%
20%
26%
(0.3)
19.9
3.8
756
1.0
60%
14%
38%
51%
12%
22%
24%
0.2
19.5
4.4
29
AIAE IN
AIA Engineering
30
ATLP IN
Atul Ltd.
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; # represents companies for which FY15 data is not available and FY14 data is used instead
* Trading below five-year average P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA (on at least two of these three measures)
** Trading below either five-year average P/E, five-year P/B or five-year EV/EBITDA (on one of these three measures)
*** Trading above five-year average P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA
Page 10
Strategy
Exhibit 12: January 2016 ten baggers - Forward-looking data using consensus estimates
Sr. No.
Ticker
Company
Mcap
(US$ mn)
6M ADV
(US$ mn)
FY15-FY18E
EPS CAGR
FY15-FY18E
BVPS CAGR
39,216
33.3
11%
11%
Attractive valuations*
1
ITC IN
ITC Ltd.
IDEA IN
Idea Cellular
7,328
9.8
-2%
10%
HCLT IN
HCL Tech.
17,856
24.0
10%
18%
TCS IN
TCS
70,083
44.4
15%
26%
GPPV IN
Gujarat Pipavav
1,142
2.4
9%
15%
MRF IN
MRF
2,579
7.5
0%
17%
TTMT IN
Tata Motors
18,462
56.0
12%
25%
3,679
4.5
24%
33%
12,139
33.3
19%
25%
Moderate valuations**
8
TRP IN
Torrent Pharma
Rich valuations***
9
LPC IN
Lupin Ltd.
10
PSYS IN
Persistent Systems
777
1.0
12%
15%
11
KJC IN
Kajaria
1,175
1.5
24%
24%
12
BRIT IN
5,353
9.6
22%
32%
13
SKB IN
4,101
1.3
17%
16%
14
PI IN
PI Industries Ltd.
1,350
2.7
25%
28%
15
MTCL IN
Mindtree Ltd.
1,826
4.6
16%
20%
16
PAG IN
Page Industries
2,270
3.0
27%
32%
17
FNXC IN
Finolex Cables
576
0.4
14%
12%
18
SI IN#
Supreme Industries
1,314
0.9
15%
16%
19
BRGR IN
Berger Paints
2,742
1.1
29%
20%
20
EIM IN
Eicher Motors
7,131
19.9
41%
27%
21
TVSL IN
TVS Motor
2,046
7.9
32%
28%
22
SF IN#
Sundram Fasteners
23
AJP IN
Ajanta Pharma
24
HTSMF IN#
25
LOG IN
La Opala
26
HUVR IN
Hindustan Unilever
520
0.3
24%
13%
1,753
4.3
25%
35%
676
0.1
80%
25%
514
1.4
32%
28%
27,900
18.3
10%
10%
27
VO IN
Vinati Organics
360
0.3
17%
24%
28
MRCO IN
Marico Ltd.
4,363
5.3
18%
20%
29
AIAE IN
AIA Engineering
1,254
0.9
6%
15%
30
ATLP IN
Atul Ltd.
756
1.0
19%
23%
Page 11
Strategy
Exhibit 13: January 2016 greatness framework on smaller caps outside BSE500
Sr. No.
Ticker
Company
TCPL IN
TCPL Packaging#
PLM IN
Poly Medicure
ATA IN
AVNT IN
KPR IN
Mcap
(US$ mn)
6M ADV
(US$ mn)
FY16 P/E
FY16 P/B
87
0.0
13.6
4.1
259
0.1
34.0
7.2
Atul Auto
181
0.6
25.3
8.0
Avanti Feeds
282
0.7
11.3
5.1
K P R Mill Ltd
495
0.9
14.4
2.9
FIEM IN
Fiem Inds.
137
0.7
16.7
3.4
HSS IN
Himatsing. Seide
312
3.5
11.8
2.2
FDM IN
Fluidomat
16
0.0
N/A
N/A
MUIL IN
49
0.1
N/A
N/A
10
NCS IN
Nucleus Software#
124
1.0
N/A
N/A
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note: Stocks that passed the two models but were omitted are:
Nandan Denim, Chamanlal Setia, Trident, Heritage Foods, Kovai Medical, Moreopen labs, RSWM, Alkyl Amines,
ShirpurGold, Ruchira Papers, Guj Alkalies,SKM Egg Products, Sreeleathers, Cupid, Paushak, Premco Global,
Lambodhara Textiles, Benares Hotels, KG Denim, Loyal Textile, Coromandel Engg, Mastek, APM Inds
# denotes new entrant to the portfolio
Note that unlike the ten-baggers list for the BSE500 universe (where we only consider
firms that meet the greatness score cut-off of 67% whilst being in the top 6 deciles of
our forensic accounting model), the criteria used to screen for ten baggers from the
sub-BSE500 universe has been made much more stringent. Only firms with a
greatness score above 80% that also fall in the top three deciles on accounting
quality in the sub-BSE500 universe have been included in this list.
On a separate note, if you havent already contacted your Ambit sales representative,
for a forensic check on your portfolio, you might want to do so now. Our forensic
model, refined and tested over five years, is very powerful.
Page 12
Strategy
Company
Attractive valuations
TCS IN
TCS
ITC IN
ITC
TTMT IN
Tata Motors
HCLT IN
HCL Tech
IDEA IN
Idea Cellular
IPCA IN
Ipca Labs.
ECLX IN
eClerx Services
Moderate valuations
COAL IN
Coal India
BATA IN
Bata India
Rich valuations
LPC IN
EIM IN
SKB IN
BRIT IN
TRP IN
MRF IN
BRGR IN
PAG IN
TVSL IN
MTCL IN
WIL IN
SI IN
PI IN
PSYS IN
MCHM IN
KJC IN
ASTRA IN
FNXC IN
SF IN
GDPL IN
VST IN
Lupin
Eicher Motors
GlaxoSmith CHL
Britannia Inds.
Torrent Pharma.
MRF
Berger Paints
Page Industries
TVS Motor Co.
Mindtree
WABCO India
Supreme Inds.
P I Inds.
Persistent Sys
Monsanto India
Kajaria Ceramics
Astral Poly
Finolex Cables
Sundram Fasten.
Gateway Distr.
VST Inds.
Price
Mcap
Performance
(US$ mn) 02-Jan-2015
04-Jan-2016
2,579
70,080
39,215
368
18,462
506
17,857
803
160
7,328
1,386
727
856
993
Average for this bucket
2,370
325
377
846
136
732
1,401
-8%
-12%
-26%
5%
-15%
1%
41%
-2%
31,304
382
660
983
Average for this bucket
351
509
-8%
-23%
-15%
12,138
1,432
15,082
7,130
4,101
5,900
5,353
1,879
3,679
1,193
2,579
38,192
2,742
226
2,270
12,420
2,046
267
1,827
1,299
1,737
4,661
1,314
597
1,350
550
777
937
571
2,926
1,175
618
770
387
575
269
520
195
512
350
394
1,940
Average for this bucket
1,795
17,495
6,496
2,973
1,448
40,506
263
13,558
287
1,451
6,101
689
656
647
2,205
985
428
251
165
314
1,700
25%
16%
10%
58%
21%
6%
16%
9%
7%
12%
31%
15%
19%
-31%
-25%
59%
11%
-7%
-15%
-11%
-12%
10%
6%
-3%
9%
Overall average
BSE500 Index
Outperformance
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
In a difficult year for the Indian equity markets, last years iteration of ten baggers
published on 05 January 2015 has clocked 6% returns in absolute terms and 9%
points relative to the BSE500. This compares with cumulative absolute returns of
109% and relative returns (to BSE500) of 43% points delivered by the first three
iterations (click here for the 19 January 2012 note on ten baggers 1.0 and click here
for the 14 January 2013 note on ten baggers 2.0 and click here for the 26 November
2013 note on ten bagger 3.0). Moreover, the above exhibit also highlights that
beginning-of-the-period valuations have not made much difference to investment
returns, with the stocks categorised as attractively valued, based on initial valuations,
underperforming those classified as richly valued on average. This finding also
emerged from earlier ten bagger iterations. In effect, what our models have shown
time and again is that once you screen rigorously for high quality, there is little
value add in further screening through a demanding valuation filter.
Page 13
Strategy
Performance
Ticker
Company
SVLS IN
498
212.8
260.45
22%
LOG IN
La Opala RG
514
446.55
617.5
38%
PLM IN
Poly Medicure
259
452.1
390.95
-14%
MUNI IN
Mayur Uniquote
326
422.75
469.65
11%
GRAN IN
Granules India
461
82.87
146.65
77%
SEL IN
Suprajit Engg.
259
138
143.75
4%
ATA IN
Atul Auto
181
677.95
550.9
-19%
AVNT IN
Avanti Feeds
282
320.94
413.9
29%
KPR IN
K P R Mill Ltd
495
377.3
874.9
132%
HPPL IN
Huhtamaki PPL
260
185.75
237.9
28%
FIEM IN
Fiem Inds.
137
872.2
760.75
-13%
HSS IN
Himatsing. Seide
312
94.25
211.2
124%
WMP IN
Wim Plast
180
1507.8
2000.75
33%
SIYA IN
Siyaram Silk
168
957.45
1191.9
24%
IDR IN
Indag Rubber
82
185.25
208.2
12%
ADFI IN
Adi Finechem
52
332.85
249.1
-25%
FDM IN
Fluidomat
16
210.15
215.7
3%
28%
Overall average
BSE Smallcap Index
4%
Outperformance
23%
The sub-BSE500 list of firms published on 05 January 2015 has also shown strength
and delivered a stellar performance over the year. These stocks are up 28% on
average over the year (vs 4% for the BSE Small-cap Index), resulting in ~23% points
of outperformance since publication. Absolute returns of 22% (and relative returns of
41%) for the first iteration of the sub-BSE500 ten baggers (published on 14 January
2013), a whopping 51% outperformance for the November 2013 iteration and 25%
outperformance of the last iteration suggest that the framework indeed does a
reasonably good job in the sub-BSE500 universe as well.
Page 14
Strategy
40%
R = 0.071
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: FY04-14 returns here are stock returns relative to Sensex
The value of the R-squared makes the story self-explanatory. A low value for this
parameter indicates that the beginning-period valuations do not play any meaningful
role in explaining stock returns over the next ten years. This holds true for both P/B
and P/E as measures of valuation.
Exhibit 17: Valuation impact on long-term returns - P/E
40%
R = 0.0143
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: FY04-14 returns here are stock returns relative to Sensex. Trailing P/E has
been restricted to 100.
Page 15
Strategy
Exhibit 18: Tenbaggers 4.0 - Beginning-period P/B and stock returns
R = 0.0635
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
-20%
-40%
Here again, a low R-squared value indicates that the beginning-period P/B does not
influence stock returns in any major way. This holds true for P/E as a measure of
valuation as well.
Exhibit 19: Tenbaggers 4.0: beginning-period P/E and stock returns
R = 0.0791
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
-20%
-40%
Page 16
Strategy
Company
Business description
TCS IN
TCS
Tata Consultancy Services, a division of Tata Sons Limited, is a global IT services organization that provides
a comprehensive range of IT services to its clients in diverse industries. The Company, caters to finance
and banking, insurance, telecommunication, transportation, retail, manufacturing, pharmaceutical, and
utility industries.
ITC IN
ITC
ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in
Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods &
Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.
Tata Motors
Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles in India. The Company
designs, manufactures and sells heavy commercial, medium commercial and small commercial vehicles
including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and
sports utility vehicles.
TTMT IN
HCLT IN
HCL Technologies
HCL Technologies Limited provides software development and related engineering services. The Group's
technologies utilize a variety of technologies, including Internet and e-commerce, networking, internet
telephony, embedded software, ASIC/VLSI design and testing, satellite and wireless communications, and
component based object technologies, including COM, DCOM and COBRA.
IDEA IN
Idea Cellular
Idea Cellular Limited offers cellular services, SMS services, and mobile communication devices.
AIAE IN
AIA Engg
AIA Engineering specialises in the design, development, manufacture, installation and servicing of high
chromium wear, corrosion and abrasion resistant castings used in the cement, mining and thermal power
generation industries.
HTSMF IN
Hatsun Agro
Hatsun Agro is the largest private sector dairy company in India. It produces and markets wide range of
dairy products dairy whitener, skimmed milk powder, Agmark certified ghee, butter, cooking butter, milk,
varities of curd, paneer etc. It also exports to 38 countries worldwide.
Gujarat Piapavav
Gujarat Pipavav is managed and operated by APM Terminals, the ports and terminals company of the
maritime giant, the A.P. Moller-Maersk Group. APM Terminals is one of the largest container terminal
operators in the world and offers the global shipping community an integrated Global Terminal Network
of 56 ports and 154 inland facilities in 63 countries.
GPPV IN
LPC IN
Lupin
Lupin Limited manufactures bulk actives and formulations. The principal bulk actives manufactured by it
include Rifampicin, Pyrazinamide, Ethambutol (anti-TB), Cephalosporins (anti-infectives) and
cardiovasculars. The company also possesses competencies in phytomedicines, in which medicines are
made out of plant and herbal resources supported by the discipline of modern medicine.
10
EIM IN
Eicher Motors
Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also
exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures tractors, two-wheelers and automotive
gears.
11
SKB IN
GlaxoSmith C H L
Glaxo SmithKline Consumer Healthcare Limited manufactures and sells malted milk food products. The
Group's products, which include energy & protein products, cereals, baby foods, ghee & butter, are sold
under the "Horlicks", "Boost", "Viva", "Brylcream", "Eno", "Maltova" and "Gopika" brand names.
12
BRIT IN
Britannia Inds.
Britannia Industries Limited manufactures bakery products such as biscuits, bread, cakes and rusks. The
Company also manufactures and exports soybean products, cashew kernels, marine products, and general
merchandise items.
13
TRP IN
Torrent Pharma.
Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd. manufactures bulk drugs and pharmaceutical formulations. The Company's
formulations include cardio-vascular, psychotropic and anti-biotic drugs while its bulk drugs include
atenolol, ciprofloxacin and norfloxacin. Torrent Pharmaceuticals has wholly owned subsidiaries in several
regulated and less regulated international markets.
14
MRF IN
MRF
MRF Limited manufactures and distributes tyres and tubes for automobiles, aircrafts, motorcycles and
cycles. The Company also manufactures conveyor belts, paint and coats, and hoses. Every MRF tyre
designed is the result of a special acid test on the race and rally tracks.
15
BRGR IN
Berger Paints
Berger Paints India Limited manufactures and distributes paints, enamels, varnishes, and synthetic resins.
The Company's products are used in home, office, factory, interiors, exteriors, metal, wood, plastic, and
others.
16
PAG IN
Page Industries
Page Industries Limited develops, produces, and distributes branded underwear for men, women, and
children in India and Sri Lanka.
Page 17
Strategy
Sr. No. Ticker
17
18
19
TVSL IN
MTCL IN
AJP IN
Company
Business description
TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds and scooters. The Company also
manufactures spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines
and transmission parts. TVS Motor Co. also owns a subsidiary that manufactures rubber molded and
plastic molded auto components, air brake hoses and molds.
Mindtree
Mindtree Limited is an international IT company. The Company delivers business and technology solutions
through global software development. Mindtree develops applications to help companies enhance their
enterprise operations. The Company also delivers product-development services and designs reusable
building blocks for high-tech companies.
Ajanta Pharma
20
SI IN
Supreme Inds.
Supreme Industries Limited manufactures industrial and engineered molded products and storage and
material handling crates. The Company also manufactures chemicals, multilayer sheets, multilayer films,
packaging films and expanded polyethylene foam, PVC pipes and fittings, molded furniture and disposable
EPS containers.
21
PI IN
P I Inds.
PI's business activities include 1) Agri Inputs offering plant protection products, and speciality plant nutrient
products and solutions and 2) Custom Synthesis & Manufacturing for contract research and production of
agro chemicals, intermediates and other niche fine chemicals for global innovators.
22
PSYS IN
Persistent Sys
Persistent Systems Limited offers outsourced software product development. The Company offer services
that include testing, support, and professional services.
23
LOG IN
La Opala
La Opala is manufacturer and marketer of life style products in tableware segment. The company deals
with glass and glassware and products include opalware and crystal.
24
KJC IN
Kajaria Ceramics
Kajaria Ceramics Limited manufactures glazed and unglazed ceramic tiles. The Company sells its products
in India and it also exports them to other countries.
25
HUVR IN
HUL
HUL is Indias largest FMCG company with a heritage of over 80 years in India. It has over 35 brands
spanning across categories like soaps, detergents, shampoos, skin care, toothpastes, detergents, packaged
foods etc. It is a subsidiary of Unilever, one of the worlds largest FMCG company.
26
FNXC IN
Finolex Cables
Finolex Cables Ltd. manufactures a wide range of telecommunication and electrical cables. The Company's
products include flexible cables for appliances and industrial use electrification, winding wires, automobile
cables, welding cables, and cables for submersible pumps. The Company also manufactures jelly filled
phone cables, high frequency/radio frequency cables and PVC Sheets.
27
SF IN
Sundram Fasten.
Sundram Fasteners Limited manufactures a wide range of nuts, bolts and related fastener equipment.
Products include high-tensile fasteners and equipment for the automotive industry, such as cold extruded
parts, radiator caps and gear shifters. The Company also manufactures water pumps and fuel pumps.
28
MRCO IN
Marico
Marico Limited is one of India's leading consumer products companies operating in the beauty and
wellness space. Currently present in 25 countries across emerging markets of Asia and Africa, Marico has
nurtured multiple brands in the categories of hair care, skin care, health foods, male grooming, and fabric
care.
29
VO IN
Vinati Organics
Vinati Organics Ltd. is a specialty chemical company producing aromatics, monomers, polymers and other
speciality products and has a sturdy market presence in over 22 countries.
30
ATLP IN
Atul Ltd.
Atul Ltd is an improvement driven, integrated chemical company serving customers across the globe. With
depth in science and technology, Atul manages almost all Unit Processes and Unit Operations to
manufacture about 1,380 products and formulations and has state-of-the-art facilities and processes to
ensure safety and treatment of gaseous, liquid and solid pollutants.
Source: Bloomberg
Page 18
Strategy
Sub-BSE500 ten baggers business description
Sr. No. Ticker
Company
Business description
TCPL IN
TCPL Packaging
TCPL Packaging Ltd., (formerly known as Twenty-First Century Printers Ltd) began commercial production in
April 1990. It is one of India's largest manufacturers of printed folding cartons, and one of the few listed
packaging companies in India.
PLM IN
Poly Medicure
Poly Medicure Limited manufactures disposable healthcare products. The Company offers a wide range of
products for infusion therapy, anesthesia, urology, gastroenterology, blood management, surgery and
drainage, and catheters.
ATA IN
Atul Auto
AVNT IN
Avanti Feeds
Avanti Feeds Ltd. manufactures and distributes shrimp feed. The Company also processes, packages, and
exports shrimp throughout the world.
KPR IN
K P R Mill Ltd
KPR Mill Limited manufactures apparel products. The Company's products include carded and combed cotton
and knitted fabrics.
FIEM IN
Fiem Inds.
FIEM Industries Limited manufactures automotive lighting and signaling equipment and rear view mirrors.
HSS IN
Himatsing. Seide
Himatsingka Seide Limited manufactures home textile products. The Company produces decorative fabrics,
spun silk, blended fabrics, bridal wear, fashion wear and other related textile products. Himatsingka Seide
offers its products to distributors across the United States and Europe.
FDM IN
Fluidomat
Fluidmat Ltd. manufactures fluid coupling, turbo couplings, flexible coupling, and mechanical power
transmission equipment.
MUIL IN
Multibase India
Multi base India is a Dow corning company that manufactures silicon based thermoplastics with application
in automotives, personal care, personal hygiene, telecom and engineering polymers
10
NCS IN
Nucleus Software
Nucleus Software provides lending and transaction banking products to the global financial services industry.
Its two flagship products are FinnOne and FinnAxia
Source: Bloomberg
Page 19
Strategy
(022) 30433174
saurabhmukherjea@ambitcapital.com
Research
Analysts
Industry Sectors
(022) 30433241
Desk-Phone E-mail
nitinbhasin@ambitcapital.com
(022) 30433239
aadeshmehta@ambitcapital.com
Aakash Adukia
(022) 30433273
aakashadukia@ambitcapital.com
Retail / Mid-caps
(022) 30433085
abhishekr@ambitcapital.com
(022) 30433178
achintbhagat@ambitcapital.com
Automobile
(022) 30433285
ashvinshetty@ambitcapital.com
Bhargav Buddhadev
(022) 30433252
bhargavbuddhadev@ambitcapital.com
(022) 30433275
deepeshagarwal@ambitcapital.com
Consumer
(022) 30433264
dhirajmistry@ambitcapital.com
Automobile
(022) 30433132
gauravkhandelwal@ambitcapital.com
(022) 30433255
gauravmehta@ambitcapital.com
Girisha Saraf
Mid-caps / Small-caps
(022) 30433211
girishasaraf@ambitcapital.com
Strategy
(022) 30433251
karankhanna@ambitcapital.com
Kushank Poddar
Technology
(022) 30433203
kushankpoddar@ambitcapital.com
(022) 30433206
pankajagarwal@ambitcapital.com
Healthcare
(022) 30433212
pareshdave@ambitcapital.com
(022) 30433223
paritaashar@ambitcapital.com
Derivatives
(022) 30433218
prashantmittal@ambitcapital.com
Rahil Shah
(022) 30433217
rahilshah@ambitcapital.com
Consumer
(022) 30433201
rakshitranjan@ambitcapital.com
Ravi Singh
(022) 30433181
ravisingh@ambitcapital.com
(022) 30433242
riteshgupta@ambitcapital.com
Consumer
(022) 30433246
riteshvaidya@ambitcapital.com
Economy / Strategy
(022) 30433175
ritikamankar@ambitcapital.com
Ritu Modi
Automobile
(022) 30433292
ritumodi@ambitcapital.com
Sagar Rastogi
Technology
(022) 30433291
sagarrastogi@ambitcapital.com
Sumit Shekhar
Economy / Strategy
(022) 30433229
sumitshekhar@ambitcapital.com
E&C / Industrials
(022) 30433209
utsavmehta@ambitcapital.com
Media
(022) 30433261
vivekanands@ambitcapital.com
Sales
Name
Regions
Desk-Phone E-mail
UK
Dharmen Shah
India / Asia
(022) 30433289
dharmenshah@ambitcapital.com
Dipti Mehta
India / USA
(022) 30433053
diptimehta@ambitcapital.com
Hitakshi Mehra
India
(022) 30433204
hitakshimehra@ambitcapital.com
Krishnan V
India / Asia
(022) 30433295
krishnanv@ambitcapital.com
USA / Europe
(022) 30433259
nityamshah@ambitcapital.com
UK / USA
(022) 30433169
pareespurohit@ambitcapital.com
Praveena Pattabiraman
India / Asia
(022) 30433268
praveenapattabiraman@ambitcapital.com
Shaleen Silori
India
(022) 30433256
shaleensilori@ambitcapital.com
Singapore
pramodgubbi@ambitpte.com
Shashank Abhisheik
Singapore
shashankabhisheik@ambitpte.com
Singapore
USA / Canada
Ravilochan Pola - CEO
Americas
ravipola@ambitpte.com
Production
Sajid Merchant
Production
(022) 30433247
sajidmerchant@ambitcapital.com
Sharoz G Hussain
Production
(022) 30433183
sharozghussain@ambitcapital.com
Nikhil Pillai
Database
(022) 30433265
nikhilpillai@ambitcapital.com
Page 20
Strategy
450
400
350
300
250
200
250
200
150
100
ITC LTD
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
0
Jun-13
Dec-12
500
Dec-15
200
Sep-15
1,000
Jun-15
400
Mar-15
1,500
Dec-14
600
Sep-14
2,000
Jun-14
800
Mar-14
2,500
Dec-13
1,000
Sep-13
3,000
Mar-13
1,200
Jun-13
Jul-14
Mar-13
Apr-14
Dec-12
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
0
Jan-13
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Dec-12
Feb-13
50
50,000
300
40,000
250
200
30,000
150
20,000
MRF Ltd
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Jan-13
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
0
Dec-12
50
Apr-13
100
10,000
Page 21
Strategy
700
2,000
600
500
400
300
1,500
1,000
200
100
0
500
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
ATUL LTD
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Sep-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-12
Dec-15
Sep-15
0
Jun-15
0
Mar-15
200
Dec-14
200
Sep-14
400
Jun-14
400
Mar-14
600
Dec-13
600
Sep-13
800
Jun-13
800
Mar-13
1,000
Dec-12
1,000
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
LUPIN LTD
Mar-15
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Page 22
Strategy
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Dec-12
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
PI INDUSTRIES LTD
Dec-15
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
MINDTREE LTD
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Sep-14
Dec-12
Dec-12
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Page 23
Strategy
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
300
250
200
150
100
Jun-15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-15
Sep-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
50
25,000
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Dec-12
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Mar-14
5,000
Dec-13
10,000
Sep-13
15,000
Jun-13
20,000
Mar-13
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Apr-14
50
Jan-14
100
Oct-13
150
Jul-13
200
Apr-13
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Jan-13
250
Page 24
Strategy
500
700
600
500
400
300
400
300
200
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
200
100
0
Oct-13
200
Jul-13
400
Apr-13
600
Jan-13
800
Jun-14
Jan-16
600
500
400
300
Mar-14
Jan-16
1,000
Dec-13
Oct-15
700
Sep-13
Oct-14
1,200
Jun-13
Jul-14
Mar-13
Apr-14
LA OPALA RG LTD
Dec-12
Oct-15
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jan-13
200
100
0
100
MARICO LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Sep-15
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Mar-14
100
Dec-13
200
Sep-13
300
Jun-13
400
Mar-13
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Dec-12
500
Page 25
Strategy
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
500
400
300
200
100
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Apr-15
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan-13
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-13
Jan-16
Oct-15
0
Jul-15
0
Apr-15
200
Jan-15
200
Oct-14
400
Jul-14
400
Apr-14
600
Jan-14
600
Oct-13
800
Jul-13
800
Apr-13
1,000
Jan-13
1,000
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Page 26
Strategy
250
350
300
250
200
150
200
150
100
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jan-13
100
50
0
50
FLUIDOMAT LTD
350
300
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
50
0
Apr-13
250
200
150
100
Jan-13
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Page 27
Strategy
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating
BUY
>10%
SELL
NO STANCE
<10%
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning valuation and recommendation
UNDER REVIEW
We will revisit our recommendation, valuation and estimates on the stock following recent events
NOT RATED
We do not have any forward looking estimates, valuation or recommendation for the stock
Disclaimer
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Disclosures
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Analy st Ce rtif icatio n
Each of the anal ysts identifi ed i n this report certi fies , with res pect to the com pani es or securiti es that the indivi dual analys es, that (1) the vi ews expressed i n this report refl ect his or her personal vi ews about all of the subject
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Copyri ght 2015 AMBIT Capital Private Limited. All ri ghts res erved.
Page 28