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Strategy

THEMATIC

January 05, 2016

Ten Baggers 5.0

Exhibit A: Ten baggers 5.0

Over the past four years we have used our greatness framework to
identify structurally strong businesses in India. These companies were
identified based on their relentless improvement in financial
performance over long periods (usually, six years). Using FY15 annual
reports, we now refresh our annual list of ten baggers. The first four
iterations (for FY11 to FY14) have cumulatively delivered ~26% CAGR
returns (over the past four years) vs BSE500 CAGR return of 14%. The
sub-BSE500 tenbaggers list has delivered ~55% CAGR returns over the
last three years.
Our relentless focus on franchises that keep improving
Whilst Good & Clean remains our preferred tactical way of playing Indian
equities (click here for the 2nd September G&C portfolio), in a country like India
the robustness of the economy ensures that well-managed companies that are
focused on building cash-generative franchises have a high chance of doing
well. Structural plays, like the ones we aim to identify in our ten-bagger
portfolios, are financially strong firms (with credible management teams) that
remain consistent performers on a cross-cyclical basis. Both in live portfolios and
back-tests, the approach delivers impressive alpha in most years whilst investing
in high-quality franchises.
A back-test of the greatness framework has yielded impressive returns
1,000
20.1% CAGR

800
600

15.1% CAGR

400

13.6% CAGR

200

Greatness
model
Universe
(average
basis)
BSE500

Jan-16

Jan-15

Jan-14

Jan-13

Jan-12

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

Jan-07

Jan-06

Jan-05

Jan-04

Source: Ambit Capital research. Note: The backtest is based on annual rebalancing with forward-looking
returns being calculated from December 31 of year X to December 31 of year X+1; for example, for the
most recent year, the framework included numbers until FY14 and returns have been calculated from 31
December 2014 to 31 December 2015.

The greatness philosophy worksyear after year


Consistent improvements in corporate performance are more important than
great leapsthis has been the guiding philosophy of our greatness
framework, which lies at the core of our process of identifying structurally sound
businesses. Not only do the great firms perform significantly better than an
average firm on a variety of measures, more importantly, they show a more
consistent and calibrated approach to growth over long periods. In this note, we
update our greatness framework to include FY15 numbers.
As shown over the past four years, our framework uses the following attributes
to measure consistent financial improvements: judicious capex, conversion of
capex to sales, pricing discipline, balance sheet discipline, cash generation and
net profit improvement, and return ratio improvement.
This years portfolio
We find that 80 firms from the BSE500 pass more than two-thirds of the tests in
our greatness framework. Of these, the best 30 firms that clear our accounting
quality and corporate governance filters make it to this years list. Of these 30
firms, we have bottom-up coverage with BUYs on: ITC, PI Industries, HCL Tech,
Page Industries, Finolex Cables, TCS, Tata Motors, Supreme Industries, Berger
Paints, TVS Motors, HUL and Marico. 70% of the stocks in this years portfolio
also featured in last years portfolio implying 30% churn.

Ticker

Company

Mcap
(US$ mn)

Attractive valuations*
ITC IN
ITC
IDEA IN
Idea Cellular
HCLT IN
HCL Tech.
TCS IN
TCS
GPPV IN
Gujarat Pipavav#
MRF IN
MRF
TTMT IN
Tata Motors
Moderate valuations**
TRP IN
Torrent Pharma
Rich valuations***
LPC IN
Lupin Ltd.
PSYS IN
Persistent Systems+
KJC IN
Kajaria
BRIT IN
Britannia+
SKB IN
GSKConsumer+
PI IN
PI Industries
MTCL IN
Mindtree+
PAG IN
Page Industries
FNXC IN
Finolex Cables
SI IN
Supreme Inds
BRGR IN
Berger Paints
EIM IN
Eicher Motors+
TVSL IN
TVS Motor
SF IN
Sundram Fasteners
AJP IN
Ajanta Pharma#
Hatsun
HTSMF IN
Agro#
LOG IN
La Opala#
HUVR IN
HUL#
VO IN
Vinati Organics#
MRCO IN Marico#
AIAE IN
AIA Engg#+
ATLP IN
Atul Ltd.#

39,216
7,328
17,856
70,083
1,142
2,579
18,462
3,679
12,139
777
1,175
5,353
4,101
1,350
1,826
2,270
576
1,314
2,742
7,131
2,046
520
1,753
676
514
27,900
360
4,363
1,254
756

Source: Ambit Capital research


* Trading below five-year P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA
(on at least two of these three measures)
** Trading below either five-year P/E, five-year P/B
or five-year EV/EBITDA (on one of these three
measures)
*** Trading above five-year P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA
# denotes new entrant to our ten baggers
portfolio
+ Indicates that the Ambit sector lead has a
bottom-up SELL on the name

Analyst Details
Gaurav Mehta, CFA
+91 22 3043 3255
gauravmehta@ambitcapital.com
Prashant Mittal, CFA
+91 22 3043 3218
prashantmittal@ambitcapital.com
Saurabh Mukherjea, CFA
+91 22 3043 3174
saurabhmukherjea@ambitcapital.com

Ambit Capital and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Ambit Capital
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision.

Strategy

CONTENTS
Philosophy and framework. 3
Quantifying greatness. 5
Does this approach work?........................................................................................ 6
Ten baggers 5.0... 8
Greatness framework on sub-BSE500 firms.12
Performance check: Jan 2015 ten-bagger list.... 13
Performance check: Jan 2015s sub-BSE500 firms. 14
Valuations - A long-term perspective!..................................................................... 15
Appendix January 2016 ten-baggers business activity description.17

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 2

Strategy

Philosophy and framework


Greatness is not in where we stand, but in what direction we are moving.
- Oliver Wendell Holmes
This quote appropriately captures the driving philosophy behind our greatness
framework that lies at the core of our process of identifying potential ten baggers. We
had unveiled this framework on 19 January 2012 with the first iteration of the
Tomorrows ten baggers note. This framework studies a firms structural strengths by
focusing not on absolutes but rather on improvements over a period of time and the
consistency of those improvements.
A basic sketch of the underlying process behind the making of a great firm has been
recaptured in Exhibit 1 below.
Exhibit 1: The greatness framework

a. Investment (gross
block)

b.
Conversion
of
investment to sales
(asset turnover, sales)

c.
Pricing
discipline
(PBIT margin)

e. Cash generation
(CFO)

d.
Balance
sheet
discipline (D/E, cash
ratio)

Source: Ambit Capital research

We rank the BSE500 universe of firms (excluding financial services firms and
excluding firms with insufficient data) on our greatness score, which consists of six
equally weighted headingsinvestments, conversion to sales, pricing discipline,
balance sheet discipline, cash generation and EPS improvement, and return ratio
improvement.
Under each of these six headings, we further look at two kinds of improvements:

Percentage improvements in performance over FY13-15 vs FY10-12; and

Consistency in performance over FY10-15 i.e. improvements adjusted for


underlying volatility in financial data

A complete list of factors that are considered whilst quantifying greatness has been
provided in Exhibit 2 on the next page.

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

The greatness framework


The framework essentially
hinges on using publicly
available historical data to
assess which firms have, over
a sustained period of time
(FY10-15), been able to
relentlessly and consistently:
(a) Invest capital;
(b) Turn investment into
sales;
(c) Turn sales into profit;
(d) Turn
profit
into
balance sheet strength;
(e) Turn all of that into
free cash flow; and
(f) Invest free cash flows
again.

Clearly, this approach will


have limited value if there is a
structural break in the sector
or in the company, which
makes past performance a
meaningless guide to future
performance. (For identifying
structural breaks of this sort,
for example in the Indian
boiler-turbine-generator
sector or in the Indian utilities
sector, we look to our sector
leads for help.)

However, to the extent that


such structural breaks tend to
be the exception than the
rule, the greatness model
helps in creating a shortlist of
stocks that investors can then
analyse in greater detail.
Put simply, the greatness
model separates the wheat
from the chaff. Yet, it does not
cook the whole meal for you!

Page 3

Strategy
Exhibit 2: Factors used for quantifying greatness
Head

Criteria

Investments

a.

Above median gross block increase (FY13-15 over FY10-12)*

b.

Above median gross block increase to standard deviation

Conversion to sales

a.
b.

Improvement in asset turnover (FY13-15 over FY10-12)*


Positive improvement in asset turnover adjusted for standard
deviation

Pricing discipline

Balance sheet discipline

Cash generation and


PAT improvement

6 Return ratio improvement

c.

Above median sales increase (FY13-15 over FY10-12)*

d.

Above median sales increase to standard deviation

a.

Above median PBIT margin increase (FY13-15 over FY10-12)*

b.

Above median PBIT margin increase to standard deviation

a.

Below median debt-equity decline (FY13-15 over FY10-12)*

b.

Below median debt-equity decline to standard deviation

c.

Above median cash ratio increase (FY13-15 over FY10-12)*

d.

Above median cash ratio increase to standard deviation

a.

Above median CFO increase (FY13-15 over FY10-12)*

b.

Above median CFO increase to standard deviation

c.

Above median adj. PAT increase (FY13-15 over FY10-12)*

d.

Above median adj. PAT increase to standard deviation

a.

Improvement in RoE (FY13-15 over FY10-12)*

b.

Positive improvement in RoE adjusted for standard deviation

c.

Improvement in RoCE (FY13-15 over FY10-12)*

d.

Positive improvement in RoCE adjusted for standard deviation

Both improvement and the


consistency of those
improvements are important

Source: Ambit Capital research. Note: * Rather than comparing one annual endpoint to another annual endpoint
(say, FY10 to FY15), we prefer to average the data out over FY10- 12 and compare that to the averaged data
from FY13-15. This gives a more consistent picture of performance (as opposed to simply comparing FY10 to
FY15).

We rank the BSE500 universe of firms (excluding financial services firms) on this score
to arrive at this years rankings on this measure of structural strength. After removing
financial services firms and firms with insufficient data, 399 firms from the BSE500
were ranked based on this measure. The highlights from the distribution of these
firms on our greatness score are displayed on the next page.
On page 6, we show a back-test of this framework over FY04-2015 and find that it
works on a consistent basis. On pages 14-15, we show the real world performance of
these sets of portfolios over the last year and demonstrate that the construct works in
the real world as well. The lists from the BSE500 universe have cumulatively delivered
~26% CAGR returns (over the past four years) vs 14% CAGR returns for the BSE500
Index. The lists from the sub-BSE500 universe that we had published in our previous
three iterations have cumulatively delivered ~55% CAGR returns (over the past three
years) vs ~17% CAGR returns for the BSE Small-cap Index.
On pages 8-12, we delve into this years list of 30 firms that constitute our ten
baggers 5.0. This is followed by a list of 10 firms from the sub-BSE500 universe that
do well on the same framework.

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 4

Strategy

Quantifying greatness
From the universe of BSE500 firms, after removing financial services firms and firms
with insufficient data, 399 firms were scored on the six headings highlighted on the
previous page. The cut-off for greatness was placed at 67%* and only 80 firms (20%
of the total population of 399 firms) could manage a score above this cut-off.
Exhibit 3: Distribution of firms on the greatness score (total population: 399 firms)

Thus, each of these six


factors carries a weightage
of 16.7%. The scoring on
sub-criteria within each of
these factors is binary, with
a firm getting either 1 or 0
based on whether it has
done better than the
respective threshold or not.

90%-100%

80%-90%

Only 80 firms
score >67%

70%-80%

87 firms
(between 50%
and 67%)

60%-70%

Zone of greatness

50%-60%

Good, not Great

40%-50%

20%-30%

10%-20%

30%-40%

232 firms
score < 50%

90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0%-10%

No. of firms

Zone of mediocrity

*The greatness score is


calculated by assigning
equal weightages to the six
factors outlined in Exhibit 2
on page 4.

Source: Ambit Capital research

In the next exhibit, we present key financial data on the three zones defined above:
Mediocrity (232 firms), Good but not great (87 firms), and Great (80 firms).

These scores are then


cumulated to arrive at a
final greatness score on 100
for the firm.

Exhibit 4: Zones of greatness - Financial summary


Mediocre

Good but not great

Great

Number of firms

232

87

80

Mcap (US$ mn)*

636

852

1,148

9%

26%

45%

11%

11%

16%

7%

15%

19%

-3%

17%

29%

Share price (3-year CAGR)#


Gross block (3-year CAGR)
Sales (3-year CAGR)
Adj PAT (3-year CAGR)
CFO (3-year CAGR)
PBIT Margin (3-year average)
RoE (3-year average)

4%

17%

32%

10%

14%

15%

9%

18%

24%

RoCE (3-year average)

11%

19%

25%

Net debt: equity

0.31

0.13

0.31

FY16 P/E

22.8

24.2

21.3

FY16 P/B

2.3

4.1

4.5

Source: Capitaline, Ambit Capital research; Note: All figures are based on median values of the firms analysed
*Mcap as of 4 January 2016. # indicates share price performance from 04 January 2013 to 04 January 2016.

With regard to fundamentals, the superiority of the great firms compared with the
other two groups is evident in Exhibit 4 above. Of these 80 great firms, we identify
the ones that perform the best on our accounting and corporate governance filters,
and this leads to our final list of 30 great companies. Before we move onto these 30
potential ten baggers, we shall discuss a back-test of the greatness framework in the
next section to see whether great firms have indeed managed to deliver superior
returns historically.

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 5

Strategy

Does this approach work?


The greatness approach has served us well in live portfolios, both in the ten-baggers
format and as a tool for stock selection in the Good & Clean portfolios. That this
approach works on a cross-cyclical basis is supported by a back-test of the
framework.
Our back-test of the greatness framework in India, going back to 2003 (which
implies using data since 1997-98), shows that great firms have historically delivered
superior results. Using average returns as a measure to gauge the performance of
great firms, we note that they have managed to outperform the universe by 5.0%
(on average returns) and the BSE500 Index by 6.5% (in CAGR terms; over a 12-year
period from 2004 to 2015).
Great firms are firms that score more than 67% on our framework. We rebalance
these buckets once a year (on 31 December), taking into account the preceding six
years of financial data (FY10-15 in the case of ten baggers 5.0). The performance
over the subsequent year is measured on a calendar year basis.
Exhibit 5: Average performance of Great firms vs the Universe and BSE500 Index
(2004-2015)
1,000
20.1% CAGR

800
600

15.1% CAGR

400

13.6% CAGR

Greatness
model
Universe
(average
basis)
BSE500

Between 2004-15, Great firms


have outperformed the universe
by 5.0% points per annum (on
average returns) and the BSE500
Index by 6.5% points per annum

200
Jan-16

Jan-15

Jan-14

Jan-13

Jan-12

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

Jan-07

Jan-06

Jan-05

Jan-04

Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: The backtest is based on annual rebalancing with forward-looking returns
being calculated from December 31 of year X to December 31 of year X+1; for example, for the most recent
year, the framework included numbers until FY14 and returns have been calculated from 31 December 2014 to
31 December 2015.

Outperformance was also seen on a median basis. A median firm in the universe has
delivered 5.0% CAGR returns (over 2004-2015). In contrast, a median great firm
has managed to deliver 9.1% CAGR returns, thus resulting in an outperformance of
~4.1% (on a CAGR basis) for great firms vs. the universe.
Exhibit 6: Median performance of Great firms vs the Universe (2004-2015)
350
300
250
200
150

9.1% CAGR

Greatness
model

5.0% CAGR

Universe
(median
basis)

100

Outperformance was also seen


on a median basis

50
Jan-16

Jan-15

Jan-14

Jan-13

Jan-12

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

Jan-07

Jan-06

Jan-05

Jan-04

Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: The backtest is based on annual rebalancing with forward-looking returns
being calculated from December 31 of year X to December 31 of year X+1; for example, for the most recent
year, the framework included numbers until FY14 and returns have been calculated from 31 December 2014 to
31 December 2015.

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 6

Strategy
Note that this back-test does not consider accounting or management quality, which
we believe are factors that should improve the performance of our live portfolios.
Thats what the next section of this note focuses on.
Before we delve into this years list of 30 firms that constitute our ten baggers 5.0, the
following two exhibits show the performance of the live ten-baggers portfolio since
January 2012 when we first unveiled this framework. Whilst the BSE500 ten baggers
have managed to outperform the BSE500 Index by ~53% points (on a cumulative
basis) over the last four years, the ten baggers from the sub-BSE500 universe that we
highlighted in the previous three iterations have managed to outperform the BSE
Small-cap Index by a whopping 115% points (on a cumulative basis).
Outperformance for all our live ten-baggers from the BSE500 and the sub-BSE500
universe demonstrates that the construct works in the real world as well.
Exhibit 7: Performance of the BSE500 ten-bagger portfolios (since 19 January 2012)
80
70
52.6

Return (%)

60
43.4

50
40
30
20

6.7

9.8

2012

2013

10

The live performance of our tenbagger portfolios has been


impressive too

(10)

Tenbagger iteration return

2014
index return

2015
cumulative alpha

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Exhibit 8: Performance of the sub-BSE500 ten-bagger portfolios (since 14 January


2013)
150
115.2
91.9

Return (%)

100

50

41.4

2013

2014

2015

(50)
Small-caps tenbagger iteration return

BSE Smallcap index return

cumulative alpha

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 7

Strategy

Ten baggers 5.0


In the latest iteration of the ten-bagger exercise, from the 80 firms that clear more
than two-thirds of our cut-off, we reach a shortlist of 30 firms after following a
process of elimination. This involves removing firms:

That fall in the Zone of Trouble in our accounting model (i.e. the bottom 4
deciles on accounting quality; for a full exposition of our accounting filter, please
refer to our 17th December 2015 note);
Firms with suspect corporate governance; and
Firms with structural issues around the underlying business (i.e. businesses where
a great past is not likely to translate into a great future).

An overlay of accounting,
corporate governance and
subjective checks to the greatness
framework is the last but critical
step

Note that the accounting filter mentioned in the first bullet eliminates 19 out of the
80 firms on the long list. Of remaining 61 firms, 31 are eliminated by the second and
third bullets.
There are 9 changes (implying 30% churn) with respect to last years list (refer to our
5th January 2015 note). A summary of these changes is as follows:

Exits: Gateway Distriparks, Monsanto India, Astral Poly Technik, Ipca, VST
Industries, eClerx Services, Coal India and Wabco India drop out on account of
deterioration in their greatness scores. We exclude Bata India on account of our
sector analysts negative view on its business.

Exhibit 9: Reasons behind the stocks exiting our ten-bagger portfolio


Company name

Metrics in our Greatness model no longer met by the company

Gateway Distriparks

Investment in gross block, balance sheet discipline, cash flows improvement, improvement in return ratios

Monsanto India

Investment in gross block, sales improvement, cash flows improvement, balance sheet discipline

Astral Poly Technik

Pricing discipline, balance sheet discipline, improvement in return ratios

Ipca Laboratories

Sales improvement, pricing discipline, improvement in return ratios

VST Industries

Investment in gross block, sales improvement, cash flows improvement, balance sheet discipline

eClerx Services

Sales improvement, pricing discipline, balance sheet discipline, improvement in return ratios
Investment in gross block, sales improvement, pricing discipline, PAT and cash flows improvement, balance sheet discipline,
improvement in return ratios
Sales improvement, pricing discipline, PAT and cash flows improvement, improvement in return ratios

Coal India*
Wabco India

Source: Ace Equity, Capitaline, Ambit Capital research * We have a Bottom-up Buy on this stock

Entrants: AIA Engineering, Ajanta Pharma, Hatsun Agro Products, La Opala,


Hindustan Unilever, Vinati Organics, Atul Ltd, Marico and Gujarat Pipavav are the
8 names that are added using FY15 data (implying that these firms greatness
scores improved when FY15 data was added to the model and FY09 data was
taken out of the model).
Having identified the 30 great firms that exhibit the ingredients required to be
tomorrows winners, we run a valuation check to ascertain if they are currently
trading at reasonable prices for outright investments. In our view, whilst valuations do
matter on a tactical basis, how the underlying fundamentals evolve for the firm over
long periods plays a more important role in determining returns than the beginningof-the-period valuation itself. Further, the performance of the previous iterations of
our ten-bagger portfolio corroborates our finding that beginning of the period
valuations do not play a significant role in shaping subsequent investment
returns. We discuss this in detail in the final section of this note.
To determine whether a particular stock is cheap or not, we categorise these stocks
into three buckets based on their relative attractiveness on valuations with respect to
their own history. We compare these firms with respect to their five-year average
valuations on three metricsP/B, P/E and EV/EBITDA. We find seven firms to be
inexpensive (on at least two of the three metrics): ITC, Idea Cellular, HCL Tech, TCS,
Gujarat Pipavav, MRF and Tata Motors. However, for the long term, all 30 stocks
remain candidates to be ten baggers from our perspective (as we have reiterated
time and again that current period valuations do not have a significant effect on
long-term returns! Please see pages 17-18 for details).
January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

For the long-term investor,


beginning-of-period valuations
do not have a significant impact
on returns

Page 8

Strategy
We have bottom-up coverage with BUYs on 12 of these names. These are: ITC, PI
Industries, HCL Techn, Page Industries, Finolex Cables, TCS, Tata Motors, Supreme
Industries, Berger Paints, TVS Motor, HUL and Marico.
Exhibit 10: January 2016 ten baggers - Valuation perspective
Sr. No. Ticker

Company

Mcap
(US$ mn)

Blended FY15 and FY16


valuations
P/E

Cheap w.r.t. history?

P/B EV/EBITDA

P/E

P/B

EV/EBITDA

Overall cheap on
how many counts?

Attractive valuations*
1

ITC IN

ITC Ltd.

IDEA IN

Idea Cellular

HCLT IN

HCL Tech.

TCS IN

TCS

GPPV IN

Gujarat Pipavav

MRF IN

MRF

TTMT IN

Tata Motors

39,216

26.1

7.7

16.8

YES

YES

YES

7,328

15.3

17,856

16.0

2.1

5.7

4.5

12.0

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

70,083
1,142

22.1

8.3

16.0

23.0

3.5

16.3

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

2,579

9.8

2.6

5.4

YES

YES

18,462

10.4

2.0

4.4

YES

YES

3,679

24.4

8.3

11.5

YES

12,139

35.3

8.5

24.7

Moderate valuations**
8

TRP IN

Torrent Pharma

Rich valuations***
9

LPC IN

Lupin Ltd.

10

PSYS IN

Persistent Systems#

777

17.4

3.5

10.3

11

KJC IN

Kajaria

1,175

38.8

9.5

19.1

12

BRIT IN

Britannia#

5,353

47.0

24.4

30.2

13

SKB IN

GSKConsumer#

4,101

42.9

11.9

30.7

14

PI IN

PI Industries Ltd.

1,350

32.1

8.6

21.0

15

MTCL IN

Mindtree#

1,826

21.4

5.6

15.0

16

PAG IN

Page Industries

2,270

66.0

32.8

38.9

17

FNXC IN

Finolex Cables

576

19.0

2.9

12.3

18

SI IN

Supreme Industries

1,314

27.3

6.6

14.5

19

BRGR IN

Berger Paints

2,742

59.1

13.4

30.3

20

EIM IN

Eicher Motors#

7,131

61.4

15.8

27.7

21

TVSL IN

TVS Motor

2,046

38.4

9.4

22.0

22

SF IN

Sundram Fasteners

23

AJP IN

Ajanta Pharma

24

HTSMF IN

Hatsun Agro Products

25

LOG IN

La Opala

26

HUVR IN

Hindustan Unilever

520

24.2

4.0

12.1

1,753

34.2

12.1

22.2

676

78.5

18.1

17.1

514

70.3

16.5

41.2

27,900

42.6

44.0

31.5

27

VO IN

Vinati Organics

360

19.7

5.0

11.2

28

MRCO IN

Marico Ltd.

4,363

46.1

14.4

28.1

29

AIAE IN

AIA Engineering#

1,254

19.9

3.8

12.3

30

ATLP IN

Atul Ltd.

756

19.5

4.4

12.4

Source: Bloomberg, Capitaline, Ambit Capital research.


* Trading below five-year average P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA (on at least two of these three measures)
** Trading below either five-year average P/E, five-year P/B or five-year EV/EBITDA (on one of these three measures)
*** Trading above five-year average P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA
# denotes that the relevant Ambit sector lead has a bottom-up SELL in the name
Note: There are a few stocks that cleared both the greatness and accounting filters but did not make it to the final list of 30 stocks based on our lack of conviction
on the names. These are: Dr Reddys, Aurobindo Pharma, P&G Hygiene, KRBL Ltd, Suven Life sciences, Kaveri Seeds, Welspun India, Relaxo Footwears, Aarti
Industries, Granules India, Aarti Drugs, Arvind, Vardhman textiles, Kitex Garments, Geometric, Metalyst Forgings, Sun Pharma, BPCL, UPL Ltd, Amara Raja,
Hexaware, Tata Elxi, Navneet Education, Alembic Pharma, Ceat, Marksans Pharma, DCM Shriram, Greenply, Tube Investments, Rajesh Exports, Dishman Pharma,
Vakrangee, Bata India, Ratnamani Metals, Wipro

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 9

Strategy
Exhibit 11: January 2016 ten baggers financial snapshot
Sr.
No.

Ticker

Company

3-yr
Mcap 6M ADV share
(US$ mn) (US$ mn) price
CAGR

3-yr Net
Sales
CAGR

3-yr adj.
PAT
CAGR

3-yr 3-yr avg


CFO
PBIT
CAGR margin

3-yr
avg
RoE

3-yr FY15 Net


avg
Debt/
RoCE
Equity

FY16
P/E

FY16
P/B

Attractive valuations*
1

ITC IN

ITC Ltd.

IDEA IN

Idea Cellular

39,216

34.1

5%

14%

16%

16%

34%

34%

50%

(0.5)

26.1

7.7

7,328

10.0

7%

17%

65%

40%

14%

12%

12%

0.6

15.3

2.1

HCLT IN

HCL Tech.

17,856

24.5

39%

21%

44%

29%

21%

37%

43%

0.0

16.0

4.5

4
5

TCS IN

TCS

70,083

45.0

22%

25%

23%

41%

27%

41%

52%

(0.4)

22.1

8.3

GPPV IN

Gujarat Pipavav

1,142

2.4

49%

21%

81%

80%

38%

14%

14%

(0.2)

23.0

3.5

MRF IN

MRF#

2,579

7.7

45%

11%

37%

39%

11%

23%

28%

0.0

9.8

2.6

TTMT IN

Tata Motors

18,462

56.8

7%

17%

0%

24%

9%

27%

21%

0.5

10.4

2.0

20%

31%

18%

19%

36%

30%

0.8

24.4

8.3

Moderate valuations**
8

TRP IN

Torrent Pharma

3,679

4.5 59%

Rich valuations***
9

LPC IN

Lupin Ltd.

10

PSYS IN

Persistent Systems

11

KJC IN

Kajaria

12,139

34.0

44%

22%

40%

70%

23%

30%

36%

(0.2)

35.3

8.5

777

1.1

34%

24%

26%

22%

17%

21%

28%

(0.6)

17.4

3.5

1,175

1.5

61%

19%

30%

26%

13%

30%

32%

0.3

38.8

9.5

5,353

9.7

80%

13%

46%

33%

8%

54%

57%

(0.5)

47.0

24.4

(1.1)

42.9

11.9

12

BRIT IN

13

SKB IN

14

PI IN

Britannia Industries
Ltd.
GSKConsumer
Healthcare Ltd.
PI Industries Ltd.

1,350

2.8

74%

30%

46%

21%

14%

28%

33%

0.1

32.1

8.6

15

MTCL IN

Mindtree Ltd.

1,826

4.6

61%

23%

33%

43%

17%

29%

37%

(0.5)

21.4

5.6

16

PAG IN

Page Industries

2,270

3.1

58%

30%

29%

11%

20%

59%

64%

0.4

66.0

32.8

17

FNXC IN

Finolex Cables

576

0.4

62%

6%

11%

-4%

8%

17%

20%

(0.3)

19.0

2.9

18

SI IN

Supreme Industries

1,314

0.9

32%

13%

10%

20%

13%

32%

37%

0.1

27.3

6.6

4,101

1.2

19%

16%

18%

16%

16%

33%

49%

19

BRGR IN

Berger Paints

2,742

1.1

50%

14%

13%

25%

9%

24%

25%

0.2

59.1

13.4

20

EIM IN

Eicher Motors

7,131

20.3

84%

15%

26%

37%

9%

21%

25%

(0.6)

61.4

15.8

2,046

7.9

85%

12%

30%

-45%

4%

19%

18%

0.5

38.4

9.4

520

0.3

48%

4%

10%

-20%

7%

15%

14%

1.0

24.2

4.0

21

TVSL IN

TVS Motor

22

SF IN

Sundram Fasteners

23

AJP IN

Ajanta Pharma

1,753

4.4

134%

30%

60%

58%

26%

41%

50%

(0.1)

34.2

12.1

24

HTSMF IN

Hatsun Agro
Products

676

0.1

67%

22%

13%

6%

4%

35%

19%

2.7

78.5

18.1

25

LOG IN

La Opala

514

1.4

124%

25%

49%

48%

24%

34%

39%

(0.4)

70.3

16.5

26

HUVR IN

Hindustan Unilever

27,900

18.8

17%

11%

12%

2%

15%

103%

146%

(1.4)

42.6

44.0

27

VO IN

Vinati Organics

360

0.3

45%

20%

28%

79%

21%

31%

32%

0.1

19.7

5.0

28

MRCO IN

Marico Ltd.

4,363

5.3

27%

13%

21%

18%

13%

29%

31%

(0.0)

46.1

14.4

1,254

1.0

39%

16%

33%

48%

21%

20%

26%

(0.3)

19.9

3.8

756

1.0

60%

14%

38%

51%

12%

22%

24%

0.2

19.5

4.4

29

AIAE IN

AIA Engineering

30

ATLP IN

Atul Ltd.

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; # represents companies for which FY15 data is not available and FY14 data is used instead
* Trading below five-year average P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA (on at least two of these three measures)
** Trading below either five-year average P/E, five-year P/B or five-year EV/EBITDA (on one of these three measures)
*** Trading above five-year average P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 10

Strategy
Exhibit 12: January 2016 ten baggers - Forward-looking data using consensus estimates
Sr. No.

Ticker

Company

Mcap
(US$ mn)

6M ADV
(US$ mn)

FY15-FY18E
EPS CAGR

FY15-FY18E
BVPS CAGR

39,216

33.3

11%

11%

Attractive valuations*
1

ITC IN

ITC Ltd.

IDEA IN

Idea Cellular

7,328

9.8

-2%

10%

HCLT IN

HCL Tech.

17,856

24.0

10%

18%

TCS IN

TCS

70,083

44.4

15%

26%

GPPV IN

Gujarat Pipavav

1,142

2.4

9%

15%

MRF IN

MRF

2,579

7.5

0%

17%

TTMT IN

Tata Motors

18,462

56.0

12%

25%

3,679

4.5

24%

33%

12,139

33.3

19%

25%

Moderate valuations**
8

TRP IN

Torrent Pharma

Rich valuations***
9

LPC IN

Lupin Ltd.

10

PSYS IN

Persistent Systems

777

1.0

12%

15%

11

KJC IN

Kajaria

1,175

1.5

24%

24%

12

BRIT IN

Britannia Industries Ltd.

5,353

9.6

22%

32%

13

SKB IN

GSKConsumer Healthcare Ltd.

4,101

1.3

17%

16%

14

PI IN

PI Industries Ltd.

1,350

2.7

25%

28%

15

MTCL IN

Mindtree Ltd.

1,826

4.6

16%

20%

16

PAG IN

Page Industries

2,270

3.0

27%

32%

17

FNXC IN

Finolex Cables

576

0.4

14%

12%

18

SI IN#

Supreme Industries

1,314

0.9

15%

16%

19

BRGR IN

Berger Paints

2,742

1.1

29%

20%

20

EIM IN

Eicher Motors

7,131

19.9

41%

27%

21

TVSL IN

TVS Motor

2,046

7.9

32%

28%

22

SF IN#

Sundram Fasteners

23

AJP IN

Ajanta Pharma

24

HTSMF IN#

Hatsun Agro Products

25

LOG IN

La Opala

26

HUVR IN

Hindustan Unilever

520

0.3

24%

13%

1,753

4.3

25%

35%

676

0.1

80%

25%

514

1.4

32%

28%

27,900

18.3

10%

10%

27

VO IN

Vinati Organics

360

0.3

17%

24%

28

MRCO IN

Marico Ltd.

4,363

5.3

18%

20%

29

AIAE IN

AIA Engineering

1,254

0.9

6%

15%

30

ATLP IN

Atul Ltd.

756

1.0

19%

23%

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note: # indicates FY15-17E CAGR


* Trading below five-year average P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA (on at least two of these three measures)
** Trading below either five-year average P/E, five-year P/B or five-year EV/EBITDA (on one of these three measures)
*** Trading above five-year average P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 11

Strategy

Greatness framework on sub-BSE500 firms


In our January 2013 ten baggers 2.0 note, based on client feedback, we had inserted
a list of sub-BSE500 firms that did well on our framework primarily in the hope that
given the inefficient price discovery in the smaller-cap names, running the screen on
relatively lesser-known names should work even better. The results surely have been
very encouraging. The sub-BSE500 list from our ten baggers 2.0 portfolio delivered
22.4% in absolute terms and 41.2% points of alpha relative to the BSE Small-cap
Index from January 2013 to November 2013. Likewise, the sub-BSE500 list from our
ten baggers 3.0 portfolio delivered a staggering 137.3% returns in absolute terms
and 50.5% points of alpha relative to the BSE Small-cap Index. The most recent subBSE500 list from our last iteration ten baggers 4.0 has again delivered 28% return
on an absolute basis and 23% alpha relative to the BSE Small-cap Index (please see
page 15 for performance details).
Continuing with this initiative, we present below a list of select small-caps from
outside the BSE500 but above a market cap of Rs1,000mn that fare well on this
years iteration of our greatness framework (after updating FY15 numbers). Based on
client feedback, we have extended our forensic accounting model to all firms with a
market cap of Rs1,000mn and above. Whilst these stocks have cleared our
accounting screen, we may not have sufficient information on the quality of their
corporate governance.

The framework should work


better in the less-discovered subBSE500 universe

Exhibit 13: January 2016 greatness framework on smaller caps outside BSE500
Sr. No.

Ticker

Company

TCPL IN

TCPL Packaging#

PLM IN

Poly Medicure

ATA IN

AVNT IN

KPR IN

Mcap
(US$ mn)

6M ADV
(US$ mn)

FY16 P/E

FY16 P/B

87

0.0

13.6

4.1

259

0.1

34.0

7.2

Atul Auto

181

0.6

25.3

8.0

Avanti Feeds

282

0.7

11.3

5.1

K P R Mill Ltd

495

0.9

14.4

2.9

FIEM IN

Fiem Inds.

137

0.7

16.7

3.4

HSS IN

Himatsing. Seide

312

3.5

11.8

2.2

FDM IN

Fluidomat

16

0.0

N/A

N/A

MUIL IN

Multibase India Ltd#

49

0.1

N/A

N/A

10

NCS IN

Nucleus Software#

124

1.0

N/A

N/A

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research; Note: Stocks that passed the two models but were omitted are:
Nandan Denim, Chamanlal Setia, Trident, Heritage Foods, Kovai Medical, Moreopen labs, RSWM, Alkyl Amines,
ShirpurGold, Ruchira Papers, Guj Alkalies,SKM Egg Products, Sreeleathers, Cupid, Paushak, Premco Global,
Lambodhara Textiles, Benares Hotels, KG Denim, Loyal Textile, Coromandel Engg, Mastek, APM Inds
# denotes new entrant to the portfolio

Note that unlike the ten-baggers list for the BSE500 universe (where we only consider
firms that meet the greatness score cut-off of 67% whilst being in the top 6 deciles of
our forensic accounting model), the criteria used to screen for ten baggers from the
sub-BSE500 universe has been made much more stringent. Only firms with a
greatness score above 80% that also fall in the top three deciles on accounting
quality in the sub-BSE500 universe have been included in this list.
On a separate note, if you havent already contacted your Ambit sales representative,
for a forensic check on your portfolio, you might want to do so now. Our forensic
model, refined and tested over five years, is very powerful.

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 12

Strategy

Performance check: Jan 2015 ten-bagger list


Exhibit 14: The ten-bagger list published on 05 January 2015 (click here for the 05
January 2015 note, Ten baggers 4.0)
Ticker

Company

Attractive valuations
TCS IN
TCS
ITC IN
ITC
TTMT IN
Tata Motors
HCLT IN
HCL Tech
IDEA IN
Idea Cellular
IPCA IN
Ipca Labs.
ECLX IN
eClerx Services
Moderate valuations
COAL IN
Coal India
BATA IN
Bata India
Rich valuations
LPC IN
EIM IN
SKB IN
BRIT IN
TRP IN
MRF IN
BRGR IN
PAG IN
TVSL IN
MTCL IN
WIL IN
SI IN
PI IN
PSYS IN
MCHM IN
KJC IN
ASTRA IN
FNXC IN
SF IN
GDPL IN
VST IN

Lupin
Eicher Motors
GlaxoSmith CHL
Britannia Inds.
Torrent Pharma.
MRF
Berger Paints
Page Industries
TVS Motor Co.
Mindtree
WABCO India
Supreme Inds.
P I Inds.
Persistent Sys
Monsanto India
Kajaria Ceramics
Astral Poly
Finolex Cables
Sundram Fasten.
Gateway Distr.
VST Inds.

Price
Mcap
Performance
(US$ mn) 02-Jan-2015
04-Jan-2016
2,579
70,080
39,215
368
18,462
506
17,857
803
160
7,328
1,386
727
856
993
Average for this bucket

2,370
325
377
846
136
732
1,401

-8%
-12%
-26%
5%
-15%
1%
41%
-2%

31,304
382
660
983
Average for this bucket

351
509

-8%
-23%
-15%

12,138
1,432
15,082
7,130
4,101
5,900
5,353
1,879
3,679
1,193
2,579
38,192
2,742
226
2,270
12,420
2,046
267
1,827
1,299
1,737
4,661
1,314
597
1,350
550
777
937
571
2,926
1,175
618
770
387
575
269
520
195
512
350
394
1,940
Average for this bucket

1,795
17,495
6,496
2,973
1,448
40,506
263
13,558
287
1,451
6,101
689
656
647
2,205
985
428
251
165
314
1,700

25%
16%
10%
58%
21%
6%
16%
9%
7%
12%
31%
15%
19%
-31%
-25%
59%
11%
-7%
-15%
-11%
-12%
10%
6%
-3%
9%

Overall average
BSE500 Index
Outperformance
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

In a difficult year for the Indian equity markets, last years iteration of ten baggers
published on 05 January 2015 has clocked 6% returns in absolute terms and 9%
points relative to the BSE500. This compares with cumulative absolute returns of
109% and relative returns (to BSE500) of 43% points delivered by the first three
iterations (click here for the 19 January 2012 note on ten baggers 1.0 and click here
for the 14 January 2013 note on ten baggers 2.0 and click here for the 26 November
2013 note on ten bagger 3.0). Moreover, the above exhibit also highlights that
beginning-of-the-period valuations have not made much difference to investment
returns, with the stocks categorised as attractively valued, based on initial valuations,
underperforming those classified as richly valued on average. This finding also
emerged from earlier ten bagger iterations. In effect, what our models have shown
time and again is that once you screen rigorously for high quality, there is little
value add in further screening through a demanding valuation filter.

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 13

Strategy

Performance check: Jan 2015s sub-BSE500 ten


baggers
Exhibit 15: Superior firms on greatness from sub-BSE500 published on 05 January
2015 (click here for the 05 January 2015, Ten baggers 4.0)
Price
Mcap
(US$ mn) 02-Jan-2015
04-Jan-16

Performance

Ticker

Company

SVLS IN

Suven Life Scie.

498

212.8

260.45

22%

LOG IN

La Opala RG

514

446.55

617.5

38%

PLM IN

Poly Medicure

259

452.1

390.95

-14%

MUNI IN

Mayur Uniquote

326

422.75

469.65

11%

GRAN IN

Granules India

461

82.87

146.65

77%

SEL IN

Suprajit Engg.

259

138

143.75

4%

ATA IN

Atul Auto

181

677.95

550.9

-19%

AVNT IN

Avanti Feeds

282

320.94

413.9

29%

KPR IN

K P R Mill Ltd

495

377.3

874.9

132%

HPPL IN

Huhtamaki PPL

260

185.75

237.9

28%

FIEM IN

Fiem Inds.

137

872.2

760.75

-13%

HSS IN

Himatsing. Seide

312

94.25

211.2

124%

WMP IN

Wim Plast

180

1507.8

2000.75

33%

SIYA IN

Siyaram Silk

168

957.45

1191.9

24%

IDR IN

Indag Rubber

82

185.25

208.2

12%

ADFI IN

Adi Finechem

52

332.85

249.1

-25%

FDM IN

Fluidomat

16

210.15

215.7

3%
28%

Overall average
BSE Smallcap Index

4%

Outperformance

23%

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

The sub-BSE500 list of firms published on 05 January 2015 has also shown strength
and delivered a stellar performance over the year. These stocks are up 28% on
average over the year (vs 4% for the BSE Small-cap Index), resulting in ~23% points
of outperformance since publication. Absolute returns of 22% (and relative returns of
41%) for the first iteration of the sub-BSE500 ten baggers (published on 14 January
2013), a whopping 51% outperformance for the November 2013 iteration and 25%
outperformance of the last iteration suggest that the framework indeed does a
reasonably good job in the sub-BSE500 universe as well.

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 14

Strategy

Valuations - A long-term perspective!


Over long periods, it is how the underlying fundamentals evolve for the firm that
plays a more important role in determining returns rather than the beginning-period
valuation itself. Put another way, over long periods how a business fundamentally
performs is overwhelmingly the most important driver of investment returns (so much
so that the price at the time of entering the stock becomes almost irrelevant). This
point can be understood better with the following exhibits that plot ten-year returns
over FY04-14 vs FY04 valuations as measured by P/B and P/E at the beginning of the
period (in 2005).
Exhibit 16: Valuation impact on long-term returns - P/B
FY05-FY15 share price CAGR

40%

R = 0.071

30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

FY05 price to book

Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: FY04-14 returns here are stock returns relative to Sensex

The value of the R-squared makes the story self-explanatory. A low value for this
parameter indicates that the beginning-period valuations do not play any meaningful
role in explaining stock returns over the next ten years. This holds true for both P/B
and P/E as measures of valuation.
Exhibit 17: Valuation impact on long-term returns - P/E

FY05-FY15 share price CAGR

40%

R = 0.0143

30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

FY05 price to earnings

Source: Ambit Capital research; Note: FY04-14 returns here are stock returns relative to Sensex. Trailing P/E has
been restricted to 100.

Further, that valuations do not play an overwhelming role in shaping investment


returns is also evidenced by the performance of the latest iteration of our ten-bagger
portfolio.
The following exhibits plot the returns since publication for the 30 stocks published as
a part of the ten-bagger portfolio on 05 January 2015 vs their trailing valuations as
measured by P/B and P/E at the beginning of the period.

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 15

Strategy
Exhibit 18: Tenbaggers 4.0 - Beginning-period P/B and stock returns
R = 0.0635

Share price performance

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

-20%
-40%

Trailing Price to Book

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Here again, a low R-squared value indicates that the beginning-period P/B does not
influence stock returns in any major way. This holds true for P/E as a measure of
valuation as well.
Exhibit 19: Tenbaggers 4.0: beginning-period P/E and stock returns
R = 0.0791

Share price performance

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

-20%
-40%

Trailing Price to Earnings

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 16

Strategy

Appendix - January 2016 ten baggers


business activity description
BSE500 ten baggers business description
Sr. No. Ticker

Company

Business description

TCS IN

TCS

Tata Consultancy Services, a division of Tata Sons Limited, is a global IT services organization that provides
a comprehensive range of IT services to its clients in diverse industries. The Company, caters to finance
and banking, insurance, telecommunication, transportation, retail, manufacturing, pharmaceutical, and
utility industries.

ITC IN

ITC

ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in
Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods &
Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.

Tata Motors

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles in India. The Company
designs, manufactures and sells heavy commercial, medium commercial and small commercial vehicles
including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and
sports utility vehicles.

TTMT IN

HCLT IN

HCL Technologies

HCL Technologies Limited provides software development and related engineering services. The Group's
technologies utilize a variety of technologies, including Internet and e-commerce, networking, internet
telephony, embedded software, ASIC/VLSI design and testing, satellite and wireless communications, and
component based object technologies, including COM, DCOM and COBRA.

IDEA IN

Idea Cellular

Idea Cellular Limited offers cellular services, SMS services, and mobile communication devices.

AIAE IN

AIA Engg

AIA Engineering specialises in the design, development, manufacture, installation and servicing of high
chromium wear, corrosion and abrasion resistant castings used in the cement, mining and thermal power
generation industries.

HTSMF IN

Hatsun Agro

Hatsun Agro is the largest private sector dairy company in India. It produces and markets wide range of
dairy products dairy whitener, skimmed milk powder, Agmark certified ghee, butter, cooking butter, milk,
varities of curd, paneer etc. It also exports to 38 countries worldwide.

Gujarat Piapavav

Gujarat Pipavav is managed and operated by APM Terminals, the ports and terminals company of the
maritime giant, the A.P. Moller-Maersk Group. APM Terminals is one of the largest container terminal
operators in the world and offers the global shipping community an integrated Global Terminal Network
of 56 ports and 154 inland facilities in 63 countries.

GPPV IN

LPC IN

Lupin

Lupin Limited manufactures bulk actives and formulations. The principal bulk actives manufactured by it
include Rifampicin, Pyrazinamide, Ethambutol (anti-TB), Cephalosporins (anti-infectives) and
cardiovasculars. The company also possesses competencies in phytomedicines, in which medicines are
made out of plant and herbal resources supported by the discipline of modern medicine.

10

EIM IN

Eicher Motors

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also
exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures tractors, two-wheelers and automotive
gears.

11

SKB IN

GlaxoSmith C H L

Glaxo SmithKline Consumer Healthcare Limited manufactures and sells malted milk food products. The
Group's products, which include energy & protein products, cereals, baby foods, ghee & butter, are sold
under the "Horlicks", "Boost", "Viva", "Brylcream", "Eno", "Maltova" and "Gopika" brand names.

12

BRIT IN

Britannia Inds.

Britannia Industries Limited manufactures bakery products such as biscuits, bread, cakes and rusks. The
Company also manufactures and exports soybean products, cashew kernels, marine products, and general
merchandise items.

13

TRP IN

Torrent Pharma.

Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd. manufactures bulk drugs and pharmaceutical formulations. The Company's
formulations include cardio-vascular, psychotropic and anti-biotic drugs while its bulk drugs include
atenolol, ciprofloxacin and norfloxacin. Torrent Pharmaceuticals has wholly owned subsidiaries in several
regulated and less regulated international markets.

14

MRF IN

MRF

MRF Limited manufactures and distributes tyres and tubes for automobiles, aircrafts, motorcycles and
cycles. The Company also manufactures conveyor belts, paint and coats, and hoses. Every MRF tyre
designed is the result of a special acid test on the race and rally tracks.

15

BRGR IN

Berger Paints

Berger Paints India Limited manufactures and distributes paints, enamels, varnishes, and synthetic resins.
The Company's products are used in home, office, factory, interiors, exteriors, metal, wood, plastic, and
others.

16

PAG IN

Page Industries

Page Industries Limited develops, produces, and distributes branded underwear for men, women, and
children in India and Sri Lanka.

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 17

Strategy
Sr. No. Ticker

17

18

19

TVSL IN

MTCL IN

AJP IN

Company

Business description

TVS Motor Co.

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds and scooters. The Company also
manufactures spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines
and transmission parts. TVS Motor Co. also owns a subsidiary that manufactures rubber molded and
plastic molded auto components, air brake hoses and molds.

Mindtree

Mindtree Limited is an international IT company. The Company delivers business and technology solutions
through global software development. Mindtree develops applications to help companies enhance their
enterprise operations. The Company also delivers product-development services and designs reusable
building blocks for high-tech companies.

Ajanta Pharma

Ajanta Pharma is a specialty pharmaceutical company engaged in development, manufacture and


marketing of quality finished dosages in domestic and international markets. Its focus is on
commercializing unique generic products and pioneering synergistic combination products in the
therapeutic areas of anti-malarial, cardiovascular, dermatology, male erectile dysfunction, pain
management, and ophthalmology.

20

SI IN

Supreme Inds.

Supreme Industries Limited manufactures industrial and engineered molded products and storage and
material handling crates. The Company also manufactures chemicals, multilayer sheets, multilayer films,
packaging films and expanded polyethylene foam, PVC pipes and fittings, molded furniture and disposable
EPS containers.

21

PI IN

P I Inds.

PI's business activities include 1) Agri Inputs offering plant protection products, and speciality plant nutrient
products and solutions and 2) Custom Synthesis & Manufacturing for contract research and production of
agro chemicals, intermediates and other niche fine chemicals for global innovators.

22

PSYS IN

Persistent Sys

Persistent Systems Limited offers outsourced software product development. The Company offer services
that include testing, support, and professional services.

23

LOG IN

La Opala

La Opala is manufacturer and marketer of life style products in tableware segment. The company deals
with glass and glassware and products include opalware and crystal.

24

KJC IN

Kajaria Ceramics

Kajaria Ceramics Limited manufactures glazed and unglazed ceramic tiles. The Company sells its products
in India and it also exports them to other countries.

25

HUVR IN

HUL

HUL is Indias largest FMCG company with a heritage of over 80 years in India. It has over 35 brands
spanning across categories like soaps, detergents, shampoos, skin care, toothpastes, detergents, packaged
foods etc. It is a subsidiary of Unilever, one of the worlds largest FMCG company.

26

FNXC IN

Finolex Cables

Finolex Cables Ltd. manufactures a wide range of telecommunication and electrical cables. The Company's
products include flexible cables for appliances and industrial use electrification, winding wires, automobile
cables, welding cables, and cables for submersible pumps. The Company also manufactures jelly filled
phone cables, high frequency/radio frequency cables and PVC Sheets.

27

SF IN

Sundram Fasten.

Sundram Fasteners Limited manufactures a wide range of nuts, bolts and related fastener equipment.
Products include high-tensile fasteners and equipment for the automotive industry, such as cold extruded
parts, radiator caps and gear shifters. The Company also manufactures water pumps and fuel pumps.

28

MRCO IN

Marico

Marico Limited is one of India's leading consumer products companies operating in the beauty and
wellness space. Currently present in 25 countries across emerging markets of Asia and Africa, Marico has
nurtured multiple brands in the categories of hair care, skin care, health foods, male grooming, and fabric
care.

29

VO IN

Vinati Organics

Vinati Organics Ltd. is a specialty chemical company producing aromatics, monomers, polymers and other
speciality products and has a sturdy market presence in over 22 countries.

30

ATLP IN

Atul Ltd.

Atul Ltd is an improvement driven, integrated chemical company serving customers across the globe. With
depth in science and technology, Atul manages almost all Unit Processes and Unit Operations to
manufacture about 1,380 products and formulations and has state-of-the-art facilities and processes to
ensure safety and treatment of gaseous, liquid and solid pollutants.

Source: Bloomberg

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 18

Strategy
Sub-BSE500 ten baggers business description
Sr. No. Ticker

Company

Business description

TCPL IN

TCPL Packaging

TCPL Packaging Ltd., (formerly known as Twenty-First Century Printers Ltd) began commercial production in
April 1990. It is one of India's largest manufacturers of printed folding cartons, and one of the few listed
packaging companies in India.

PLM IN

Poly Medicure

Poly Medicure Limited manufactures disposable healthcare products. The Company offers a wide range of
products for infusion therapy, anesthesia, urology, gastroenterology, blood management, surgery and
drainage, and catheters.

ATA IN

Atul Auto

Atul Auto Ltd. manufactures three-wheeled commercial diesel vehicles.

AVNT IN

Avanti Feeds

Avanti Feeds Ltd. manufactures and distributes shrimp feed. The Company also processes, packages, and
exports shrimp throughout the world.

KPR IN

K P R Mill Ltd

KPR Mill Limited manufactures apparel products. The Company's products include carded and combed cotton
and knitted fabrics.

FIEM IN

Fiem Inds.

FIEM Industries Limited manufactures automotive lighting and signaling equipment and rear view mirrors.

HSS IN

Himatsing. Seide

Himatsingka Seide Limited manufactures home textile products. The Company produces decorative fabrics,
spun silk, blended fabrics, bridal wear, fashion wear and other related textile products. Himatsingka Seide
offers its products to distributors across the United States and Europe.

FDM IN

Fluidomat

Fluidmat Ltd. manufactures fluid coupling, turbo couplings, flexible coupling, and mechanical power
transmission equipment.

MUIL IN

Multibase India

Multi base India is a Dow corning company that manufactures silicon based thermoplastics with application
in automotives, personal care, personal hygiene, telecom and engineering polymers

10

NCS IN

Nucleus Software

Nucleus Software provides lending and transaction banking products to the global financial services industry.
Its two flagship products are FinnOne and FinnAxia

Source: Bloomberg

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 19

Strategy

Institutional Equities Team


Saurabh Mukherjea, CFA

CEO, Institutional Equities

(022) 30433174

saurabhmukherjea@ambitcapital.com

Research
Analysts

Industry Sectors

Nitin Bhasin - Head of Research

E&C / Infra / Cement / Industrials

(022) 30433241

Desk-Phone E-mail
nitinbhasin@ambitcapital.com

Aadesh Mehta, CFA

Banking / Financial Services

(022) 30433239

aadeshmehta@ambitcapital.com

Aakash Adukia

Oil & Gas / Chemicals / Agri Inputs

(022) 30433273

aakashadukia@ambitcapital.com

Abhishek Ranganathan, CFA

Retail / Mid-caps

(022) 30433085

abhishekr@ambitcapital.com

Achint Bhagat, CFA

Cement / Roads / Home Building

(022) 30433178

achintbhagat@ambitcapital.com

Ashvin Shetty, CFA

Automobile

(022) 30433285

ashvinshetty@ambitcapital.com

Bhargav Buddhadev

Power Utilities / Capital Goods

(022) 30433252

bhargavbuddhadev@ambitcapital.com

Deepesh Agarwal, CFA

Power Utilities / Capital Goods

(022) 30433275

deepeshagarwal@ambitcapital.com

Dhiraj Mistry, CFA

Consumer

(022) 30433264

dhirajmistry@ambitcapital.com

Gaurav Khandelwal, CFA

Automobile

(022) 30433132

gauravkhandelwal@ambitcapital.com

Gaurav Mehta, CFA

Strategy / Derivatives Research

(022) 30433255

gauravmehta@ambitcapital.com

Girisha Saraf

Mid-caps / Small-caps

(022) 30433211

girishasaraf@ambitcapital.com

Karan Khanna, CFA

Strategy

(022) 30433251

karankhanna@ambitcapital.com

Kushank Poddar

Technology

(022) 30433203

kushankpoddar@ambitcapital.com

Pankaj Agarwal, CFA

Banking / Financial Services

(022) 30433206

pankajagarwal@ambitcapital.com

Paresh Dave, CFA

Healthcare

(022) 30433212

pareshdave@ambitcapital.com

Parita Ashar, CFA

Metals & Mining

(022) 30433223

paritaashar@ambitcapital.com

Prashant Mittal, CFA

Derivatives

(022) 30433218

prashantmittal@ambitcapital.com

Rahil Shah

Banking / Financial Services

(022) 30433217

rahilshah@ambitcapital.com

Rakshit Ranjan, CFA

Consumer

(022) 30433201

rakshitranjan@ambitcapital.com

Ravi Singh

Banking / Financial Services

(022) 30433181

ravisingh@ambitcapital.com

Ritesh Gupta, CFA

Oil & Gas / Chemicals / Agri Inputs

(022) 30433242

riteshgupta@ambitcapital.com

Ritesh Vaidya, CFA

Consumer

(022) 30433246

riteshvaidya@ambitcapital.com

Ritika Mankar Mukherjee, CFA

Economy / Strategy

(022) 30433175

ritikamankar@ambitcapital.com

Ritu Modi

Automobile

(022) 30433292

ritumodi@ambitcapital.com

Sagar Rastogi

Technology

(022) 30433291

sagarrastogi@ambitcapital.com

Sumit Shekhar

Economy / Strategy

(022) 30433229

sumitshekhar@ambitcapital.com

Utsav Mehta, CFA

E&C / Industrials

(022) 30433209

utsavmehta@ambitcapital.com

Vivekanand Subbaraman, CFA

Media

(022) 30433261

vivekanands@ambitcapital.com

Sales
Name

Regions

Desk-Phone E-mail

Sarojini Ramachandran - Head of Sales

UK

Dharmen Shah

India / Asia

(022) 30433289

dharmenshah@ambitcapital.com

Dipti Mehta

India / USA

(022) 30433053

diptimehta@ambitcapital.com

Hitakshi Mehra

India

(022) 30433204

hitakshimehra@ambitcapital.com

Krishnan V

India / Asia

(022) 30433295

krishnanv@ambitcapital.com

Nityam Shah, CFA

USA / Europe

(022) 30433259

nityamshah@ambitcapital.com

Parees Purohit, CFA

UK / USA

(022) 30433169

pareespurohit@ambitcapital.com

Praveena Pattabiraman

India / Asia

(022) 30433268

praveenapattabiraman@ambitcapital.com

Shaleen Silori

India

(022) 30433256

shaleensilori@ambitcapital.com

Pramod Gubbi, CFA Director

Singapore

+65 8606 6476

pramodgubbi@ambitpte.com

Shashank Abhisheik

Singapore

+65 6536 1935

shashankabhisheik@ambitpte.com

+44 (0) 20 7614 8374 sarojini@panmure.com

Singapore

USA / Canada
Ravilochan Pola - CEO

Americas

+1(646) 361 3107

ravipola@ambitpte.com

Production
Sajid Merchant

Production

(022) 30433247

sajidmerchant@ambitcapital.com

Sharoz G Hussain

Production

(022) 30433183

sharozghussain@ambitcapital.com

Nikhil Pillai

Database

(022) 30433265

nikhilpillai@ambitcapital.com

E&C = Engineering & Construction

January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 20

Strategy

ITC LTD (ITC IN, BUY)

Idea Cellular Ltd (IDEA IN, NOT RATED)

450
400
350
300
250
200

250
200
150
100

ITC LTD

HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Oct-14

Jan-15

Dec-15

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

0
Jun-13

Dec-12

500
Dec-15

200
Sep-15

1,000

Jun-15

400

Mar-15

1,500

Dec-14

600

Sep-14

2,000

Jun-14

800

Mar-14

2,500

Dec-13

1,000

Sep-13

3,000

Mar-13

Tata Consultancy Svcs Ltd (TCS IN, BUY)

1,200

Jun-13

Jul-14

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

HCL Technologies Ltd (HCLT IN, BUY)

Mar-13

Apr-14

IDEA CELLULAR LTD

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Dec-12

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

0
Jan-13

Dec-14

Oct-14

Aug-14

Jun-14

Apr-14

Feb-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

Dec-12

Feb-13

50

TATA CONSULTANCY SVCS LTD

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

MRF Ltd (MRF IN, NOT RATED)

Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd (GPPV IN, NOT RATED)

50,000

300

40,000

250
200

30,000

150

20,000

MRF Ltd
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

January 05, 2016

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Jan-13

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

0
Dec-12

50
Apr-13

100

10,000

GUJARAT PIPAVAV PORT LTD


Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 21

Strategy

Tata Motors (TTMT IN, BUY)

Atul Ltd (ATLP IN, NOT RATED)

700

2,000

600
500
400
300

1,500
1,000

200
100
0

500

TATA MOTORS LTD

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

ATUL LTD

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Torrent Pharma Ltd (TRP IN, NOT RATED)

Lupin Ltd (LPC IN, NOT RATED)


2,500

1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0

2,000
1,500
1,000
500

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS LTD

January 05, 2016

Sep-15
Sep-15

Jun-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-12

Dec-15

Sep-15

0
Jun-15

0
Mar-15

200
Dec-14

200
Sep-14

400

Jun-14

400

Mar-14

600

Dec-13

600

Sep-13

800

Jun-13

800

Mar-13

1,000

Dec-12

1,000

Dec-13

Kajaria Ceramics Ltd (KJC IN, NOT RATED)

Sep-13

Persistent Systems Ltd (PSYS IN, SELL)

Jun-13

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Mar-13

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

LUPIN LTD

Mar-15

TORRENT PHARMACEUTICALS LTD

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

KAJARIA CERAMICS LTD


Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 22

Strategy

Britannia Industries Ltd (BRIT IN, SELL)

Glaxosmithkline Consumer (SKB IN, SELL)

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

Dec-12

7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

GLAXOSMITHKLINE CONSUMER HEA

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

PI Industries Ltd (PI IN, BUY)

Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN, SELL)

PI INDUSTRIES LTD

Dec-15

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

MINDTREE LTD

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Page Industries Ltd (PAG IN, BUY)

Finolex Cables Ltd (FNXC IN, BUY)

18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0

PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD


Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

January 05, 2016

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Sep-14

Dec-12

Dec-12

1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

FINOLEX CABLES LTD


Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 23

Strategy

Supreme Industries Ltd (SI IN, BUY)

Berger Paints India Ltd (BRGR IN, BUY)

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

300
250
200
150
100

Jun-15

Sep-15
Sep-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Jun-15

SUPREME INDUSTRIES LTD

Sep-13

Jun-13

Dec-12

Mar-13

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

50

BERGER PAINTS INDIA LTD

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Eicher Motors Ltd (EIM IN, SELL)

TVS Motor (TVSL IN, BUY)

25,000

EICHER MOTORS LTD

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Dec-12

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

Mar-14

5,000

Dec-13

10,000

Sep-13

15,000

Jun-13

20,000

Mar-13

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

TVS MOTOR CO LTD

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Sundram Fasteners (SF IN, NOT RATED)

Ajanta Pharma Ltd (AJP IN, NOT RATED)

SUNDRAM FASTENERS LTD


Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

January 05, 2016

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Apr-14

50

Jan-14

100

Oct-13

150

Jul-13

200

Apr-13

1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Jan-13

250

AJANTA PHARMA LTD


Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 24

Strategy

Hatsun Agro Products Ltd (HTSMF IN, NOT RATED)

La Opala Rg Ltd (LOG IN, NOT RATED)

500

700
600
500
400
300

400
300
200

HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

200
100
0
Oct-13

200

Jul-13

400

Apr-13

600

Jan-13

800

Jun-14

Jan-16

600
500
400
300

Mar-14

Jan-16

1,000

Dec-13

Oct-15

700

Sep-13

Oct-14

Vinati Organics Ltd (VO IN, NOT RATED)

1,200

Jun-13

Jul-14

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUVR IN, BUY)

Mar-13

Apr-14

LA OPALA RG LTD

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Dec-12

Oct-15

HATSUN AGRO PRODUCTS LTD

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Jan-13

200
100
0

100

VINATI ORGANICS LTD

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Marico Ltd (MRCO IN, BUY)

AIA Engineering Ltd (AIAE IN, SELL)

MARICO LTD
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

January 05, 2016

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Sep-15

Jun-15

Mar-15

Dec-14

Sep-14

Jun-14

Mar-14

Dec-13

Sep-13

Jun-13

Mar-13

Dec-12

Mar-14

100

Dec-13

200

Sep-13

300

Jun-13

400

Mar-13

1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Dec-12

500

AIA ENGINEERING LTD


Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 25

Strategy

TCPL Packaging Ltd (TCPL IN, NOT RATED)

Poly Medicure Ltd (PLM IN, NOT RATED)


600

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

500
400
300
200
100
Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Apr-15

TCPL PACKAGING LTD

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

POLY MEDICURE LTD

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Atul Auto Ltd (ATA IN, NOT RATED)

Avanti Feeds Ltd (AVNT IN, NOT RATED)

ATUL AUTO LTD

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan-13

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

AVANTI FEEDS LTD

KPR MILL LTD


Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

January 05, 2016

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-13

Jan-16

Oct-15

0
Jul-15

0
Apr-15

200
Jan-15

200
Oct-14

400

Jul-14

400

Apr-14

600

Jan-14

600

Oct-13

800

Jul-13

800

Apr-13

1,000

Jan-13

1,000

Jan-14

Fiem Industries Ltd (FIEM IN, NOT RATED)

Oct-13

KPR Mill Ltd (KPR IN, NOT RATED)

Jul-13

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Apr-13

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

FIEM INDUSTRIES LTD


Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 26

Strategy

Himatsingka Seide Ltd (HSS IN, NOT RATED)

Fluidomat Ltd (FDM IN, NOT RATED)

250

350
300
250
200
150

200
150
100

HIMATSINGKA SEIDE LTD

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Jan-13

100
50
0

50

FLUIDOMAT LTD

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Multibase India Ltd (MUIL IN, NOT RATED)

Nucleus Software Exports Ltd (NCS IN, NOT RATED)

350
300

MULTIBASE INDIA LTD


Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

January 05, 2016

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

50
0

Apr-13

250
200
150
100

Jan-13

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

NUCLEUS SOFTWARE EXPORTS LTD


Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 27

Strategy
Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating

Expected return (over 12-month)

BUY

>10%

SELL
NO STANCE

<10%
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning valuation and recommendation

UNDER REVIEW

We will revisit our recommendation, valuation and estimates on the stock following recent events

NOT RATED

We do not have any forward looking estimates, valuation or recommendation for the stock

Disclaimer
This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Ambit Capital. AMBIT Capital Research is disseminated and available primarily electronically,
and, in some cases, in printed form.
Addit ional information on reco mme nde d securit ies is available on request .
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Deposi tory Partici pant regis tered wi th Securiti es and Exchange Board of India Limi ted (SE BI) and is regulated by SE BI

2.

AMBIT Capi tal m akes bes t endeavours to ens ure that the res earch analys t(s ) use current, reli abl e, comprehensive i nform ati on and obtai n such inform ati on from s ources which the anal yst(s) believes to be reliable.
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This Research Report is iss ued for i nform ati on only and the ' Buy', 'Sell' , or Other Recommendati on m ade in this Research Report s uch s houl d not be construed as an inves tment advi ce to any reci pient to acquire,
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9.

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Addit ional Disclaimer f or U .S. Persons


10.

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11.

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12.

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13.

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14.

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among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and tradi ng securi ties held by a research analyst account.

15.

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As of the publicati on of this report Enclave Capi tal LLC, does not m ake a market i n the s ubj ect securi ties.

16.
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com pleteness of any s uch inform ati on. All estim ates , expressi ons of opi nion and other s ubj ective j udgm ents contai ned herein are m ade as of the date of this document. Emergi ng securiti es mark ets may be subject to
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Addit ional Disclaimer f or Canadian Persons


18.

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Disclosures
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Analy st Ce rtif icatio n
Each of the anal ysts identifi ed i n this report certi fies , with res pect to the com pani es or securiti es that the indivi dual analys es, that (1) the vi ews expressed i n this report refl ect his or her personal vi ews about all of the subject
com panies and s ecuriti es and (2) no part of his or her com pens ati on was , is or will be directl y or indirectl y dependent on the specifi c recommendations or vi ews expressed in this report.
Copyri ght 2015 AMBIT Capital Private Limited. All ri ghts res erved.

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January 05, 2016

Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd.

Page 28

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