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Continental Shelf Research 26 (2006) 10301044


www.elsevier.com/locate/csr

An integrated method for the determination of set-back lines


for coastal erosion hazards on sandy shores
Oscar Ferreiraa,, Tiago Garciab, Ana Matiasb, Rui Tabordac, J. Alveirinho Diasa
a

FCMA-CIMA, Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8000 Faro, Portugal


b
CIACOMAR-CIMA, Av. 16 de Junho, s/n, 8700-311 Olhao, Portugal
c
LATTEX-FCUL, Bloco C2, 51 Piso, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal
Available online 2 May 2006

Abstract
Coastal hazards affect the majority of sandy shores worldwide, and are responsible for damage to, and destruction of,
property and infrastructure. The research reported here presents an integrated method for dening set-back lines
associated with coastal hazards on sandy shores for a 50-year period of interest. The method is based on a worst-case
scenario approach, the shoreline evolutionary trend being the basis for the initial set-back line determination. Set-back
lines are afterwards adjusted by incorporating changes associated with the acceleration of sea-level rise and the evaluation
of the consequences (instantaneous shoreline retreat and overwash) of an extreme storm. The method considers different
approaches depending on the shoreline behaviour (erosion, dynamic stability or accretion). The set-back lines as
determined are plotted over rectied aerial photographs, allowing for a straight-forward interpretation of results. The
method was applied to a test case within a barrier island system (Ancao Peninsula, Ria Formosa, Algarve, Portugal). This
study area was chosen because it exhibits the three different types of shoreline evolution. The method easily shows the
differences in erosion-related coastal hazards along the study area, being an important tool for coastal management.
However, the method should be able to be rened at every 510 years, for a new 50-year period, by integrating new
formulations based on advances in coastal science, and by including updated information and data about the areas to
which the method is applied.
r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Coastal hazards; Shoreline evolution; Sea-level rise; Extreme storms; Overwashes; Mapping; Ria Formosa; Algarve; Portugal

1. Introduction
Many coastal areas are at risk from natural and
human-induced hazards. Coastal hazards, such as
shoreline retreat and coastal oods, are caused by
sediment starvation, sea-level rise, storms, storm
Corresponding author. Tel.: +351 289 800900;
fax: +351 289 818353.
E-mail address: oferreir@ualg.pt (O. Ferreira).

0278-4343/$ - see front matter r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.csr.2005.12.016

surges, and tsunamis. In areas where humans have


occupied threatened coastlands it is prudent to take
precautions against often sudden and potentially
dangerous rises in sea level (Carter, 1988) and other
coastal hazards. Three basic adaptation strategies to
coastal hazards are often used (Klein et al., 2001):
Protect, reducing the risk of the event; Accommodate, increasing the societys ability to cope with the
effects of the event; Retreat, reducing the potential
effects of the event. The most common response to

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Fig. 1. Case study location within the Ria Formosa barrier island system.

coastal hazards has been to Protect, by raising


seawalls, dikes, and other hard protection structures
or, more recently, by using soft engineering
techniques (e.g. beach and dune nourishment).
Accommodate and Retreat are, however, better
options in a proactive approach, avoiding the
existence of a coastal squeeze (Nicholls and Klein,
2003) and minimizing impacts resulting from the
used adaptation strategy. A possible response to
avoid the effects of coastal hazards by helping the
implementation of a Retreat or Accommodate
strategy is to zone the coastline in order to preclude
or dissuade occupation within a certain distance
from the shoreline. This approach requires the
denition of one or more set-back lines along a
coast, based on known variations and trends of
shoreline movement. The representation of set-back
lines over a cartographic base results in the
generation of coastal hazard maps. Coastal hazard
mapping is seen as a rst step toward both the
mitigation of hazards and a comprehensive integrated planning for disaster preparedness (Pilkey
and Neal, 1988; Finkl, 1994).
The notion of set-back lines for shoreline development was rst conceived in Florida in the late
1960s, with the set-back line being a standard
distance from the high water mark or most seaward
dune crest (Carter, 1988). Subsequent renements
included the spatial extent of surge penetration and
coastal susceptibility to storms. Given the diversity
of coastal hazards, a large range of possible hazards
and processes can be mapped. Mapping coastal

hazards on sandy shores includes shoreline retreat


(see Crowell and Leatherman, 1999), dune recession
(e.g. DeKimpe et al., 1991), ood vulnerability (e.g.
Finkl, 1994), and vulnerability to sea-level rise (e.g.
Gornitz et al., 1994). Most previous studies involving coastal hazard mapping have tended to develop
techniques and methods to represent each of the
aforementioned hazards individually. Investigations
integrating several or all hazards simultaneously are
rare and have often been based on qualitative or
semi-quantitative approaches (e.g. Gibb, 1981 in
Carter, 1988; Bush et al., 1999). Two of the most
detailed, recent studies integrating more than one
coastal hazard and using quantitative approaches
are those of Crowell and Leatherman (1999) and
Healy and Dean (2000).
The main goal of this current study is to construct
an integrated method to represent set-back lines
associated with coastal erosion hazards along sandy
shores. The method to be developed will integrate
hazards resulting from sediment starvation, sealevel rise, and storm action. Tsunami hazards and
inland coastal ooding are beyond the scope of the
research and were not included in the risk analysis.
The approach is applied to a test case area, the
Ancao Peninsula, located in the Ria Formosa
barrier island system (Algarve, Portugal; Fig. 1).
2. Description of the method
The approach adopted here for coastal hazard
zone denition is based on combining shoreline

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evolution rates (SERs) with shoreline response to


expected sea-level rise and to major storm impacts.
Results are presented as set-back lines whose
positions are dened for a particular time in future
(e.g. 10, 25, 50, 100 years). A 50-year period was
considered for the application example at this study,
because it is a long-term (decadal) approach,
suitable to dene coastal management actions. The
method was developed for sandy shores, with the
beach being backed by a continuous morphology,
such as a dune ridge. The method involves four
main procedures: (a) the quantication of shoreline
evolution and the prediction of future shoreline
position; (b) adjustment for accelerating sea-level
rise (ASLR); (c) evaluation of extreme storm
impacts (associated instantaneous shoreline retreat
and overwash); and (d) representation of set-back
lines.
2.1. Shoreline evolution and future shoreline position
To quantify shoreline evolution it is rst necessary to dene a baseline, which enables the
measurement of shoreline changes. This feature
can be the high water line, bluff line, or vegetation
line, among other markers. For the Ria Formosa
case study detailed further below, the shoreward
edge of the foredune vegetation line was used
because it is the coastal feature that best denes
the transition between the wave- and wind-dominated domains, not exhibiting short-term (e.g. tidal)
or medium-term (e.g. seasonal) changes. For the
purpose of this study when it is mentioned shoreline position it refers to the above dened baseline.
In areas undergoing rapid erosion, an active bluff or
dune scarp exists and the contact between the
foredune and the upper beach is abrupt. In contrast,
accretionary areas are characterized by a smoother
and more irregular contact due to colonization of
the upper beach by pioneer vegetation.
In order to map erosion hazard areas, the baseline
must also be used. For the purposes of the current
work, the baseline was marked based on the analysis
of vertical aerial photographs taken in 2001, and
dened as S0 (baseline or shoreline position at time
zero).
If the main factors and processes responsible for
recent and current variations in the movement of
the shoreline do not change in the near future, a
future shoreline position can be estimated by
multiplying the obtained SER by the number of
years of interest (50 years in this study). The SER

can be determined by using aerial photographs and/


or maps from past dates to present in order to
establish the recent direction and rate of shoreline
movement. SER can vary widely, and three possible
situations can be dened: erosion (shoreline retreat);
dynamic stability (SER about zero); and accretion
(seaward displacement of the shoreline).
For a coastal area facing shoreline retreat,
the prediction of a 50-year set-back line (S50) is
given by
S50 S0 SER  50,

(1)

where S50 is the landward distance from S0 at which


the set-back line should be drawn. For a coastal
area where shoreline changes indicate dynamic
stability (net movement of the shoreline is about
zero and within measurement uncertainty) or
accretion the set-back line will remain equal to the
presently existent baseline, since it is the most
landward position predicted for the shoreline for the
next 50 years (Fig. 2a), and a worst-case scenario
approach is used.
This simple procedure assumes that the main
inuences on long-term shoreline evolution (sediment supply and relative sea-level rise) will not
change during the time horizon of interest. Because
the estimation of sediment supply evolution is
extremely difcult, as sediment supply depends on
such factors as the degree of human intervention in
river basins, the presence of beach nourishment or
dredging, and the existence of jetties and groins, a
correction to integrate changes in sediment supply
through time was not applied.
2.2. Adjustment for ASLR
The obtained shoreline retreat (S50) includes the
effect of the present trend in sea-level rise. However,
S50 does not account for the expected acceleration
in sea-level rise (see IPCC, 2001) for the 50-year
period of interest. An adjustment for the additional
erosion of the shoreline induced by ASLR can be
implemented. Knowing the present sea-level rise
rate (SLRp) for a given place and the prediction for
the expected sea-level in 50 years (SL50), an
adjustment value (SLRa) taking into account ASLR
can be obtained by
SLRa SL50  SLRp  50.

(2)

Using this value, the Bruun Rule (Bruun, 1962)


can be applied to obtain a shoreline retreat value
(Ra) additional to the expected one if the present

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Fig. 2. Schematic representation of set-back lines representation for a 50-year period, including (a) denition of shoreline position, (b)
adjustment for ASLR, and (c) extreme storm impacts, for three different situations of accretion, dynamic stability, and erosion.

trend of sea-level rise continued throughout the 50


years period:
Ra SLRa  L=h D,

(3)

where L is the horizontal distance between the


upper and lower limits of the beach prole, h is the
beach prole depth of closure (measured below
mean sea-level, MSL), and D is the dune elevation
(measured above MSL).
For coastlines facing shoreline retreat or dynamic
stability, the adjusted set-back line (S50c) is given by
S 50c S50 Ra:

(4)

For coastlines in dynamic stability, since


S 50 S0 , the set-back line adjusted for ASLR will
be displaced landward by a distance equal to Ra
(Fig. 2b). For coastal stretches undergoing an
accretionary trend, the determination of an adjusted
set-back line is not as simple. Two scenarios are
possible (Fig. 2b). For scenario (a), where the
expected seaward movement of the shoreline due to
accretion is greater than the landward displacement
caused by the ASLR, then S50c will remain equal to
S0 (the most landward position of the shoreline for
the 50-year period). For scenario (b), where the
predicted erosion due to ASLR (Ra) is greater than

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the expected seaward displacement of the shoreline


for the 50-year period (SS50), the adjusted set-back
line is given by
S50c S0 Ra  SS50 .

(5)

After this step the obtained set-back lines


represent the estimated position of the shoreline in
50 years, assuming an SER equal to that measured
for the recent past (SER) adjusted for the additional
erosion associated with ASLR.
2.3. Evaluation of extreme storm impacts
(associated instantaneous shoreline retreat and
overwash)
In addition to confronting the problems of longterm environmental trends, the hazards of individual storms must be gauged (Dolan and Hayden,
1993). The occurrence of extreme events (e.g.
storms, hurricanes) is responsible for dramatic
shoreline changes, and consideration of such events
is therefore important in describing short-term
shoreline uctuations (Honeycutt et al., 2001).
However, these extreme events do not directly
control shoreline movements over the long-term,
as such movements are associated with longer-term
processes such as sea-level rise (or fall) and changes
in sediment supply (Fenster et al., 2001). The setback lines obtained above (S50 and S50c) already
incorporate an averaged inuence of storms for the
50-year period as they include the short-term
uctuations of the shoreline. However, the objective
of this work is not only to dene the shoreline
position in 50 years but also to dene the potential
extent of coastal hazards. Therefore, the worst-case
scenario should be assumed in considering the effect
of an extreme storm. As a consequence, a further
renement or adjustment of the set-back lines
already dened can be made, by including information about instantaneous shoreline retreat and
potential ooding associated with extreme storms.
The term instantaneous refers to a new shoreline
position caused by the extreme storm, which can be
maintained in place until a new erosive event (e.g.
shorelines facing erosion) or masked by dune
growth and seaward shoreline migration (e.g.
accretionary shorelines).
2.3.1. Shoreline retreat
Shoreline retreat induced by a storm with a given
return period can be estimated by using a validated
model, such as the convolution model. Details

concerning the model, including the various formulations, can be found in Kriebel and Dean
(1993), while examples of the models application
are demonstrated in the Coastal Engineering
Manual (US Army Corps of Engineers, 2002).
However, an outline of the main features of the
model pertinent to the method developed in this
study follows below.
The convolution model consists of simple analytical solutions to predict the time-dependent beach
prole response to severe coastal storms. It assumes
that beaches subjected to steady-state erosionforcing conditions respond to a storm towards a
stable or equilibrium form in a roughly exponential
manner. The forcing mechanism considered is the
storm-induced variation in water level, with the
magnitude of the erosion response being determined
by two parameters: (i) the maximum potential
response, which would occur if the beach were
allowed to respond completely to a new equilibrium;
and (ii) the characteristic erosion time scale, which
governs the exponential rate at which the prole
responds toward the new equilibrium.
In the convolution model, initial beach proles
are split into two parts, the upper part of the prole
above MSL, and the submerged part below MSL.
For the upper part of the prole, a schematic prole
can be used, based on actual proles, requiring
simplied prole parameters such as berm elevation
above MSL, berm width, dune height, and beach
face slope. For the submerged portion, the convolution model uses the equilibrium prole dened
by Dean (1977). To compute the maximum potential shoreline retreat and the associated maximum
potential volume of erosion, a series of closed-form
solutions was developed by Kriebel and Dean
(1993). These computations are dependent on storm
characteristics and the initial beach prole form.
The standard prole type in the case study area of
the current study is the equilibrium prole with
dune and wide backshore.
In the model, the maximum shoreline retreat and
volume of erosion are obtained by shifting the
equilibrium prole vertically through a distance S0
(maximum sea-level, including both tidal elevation
and storm surge) above MSL, and then landward
through a distance equal to the retreat value, such
that a mass balance is achieved between the eroded
and deposited sand volumes. Thus, the solution for
the equilibrium beach recession is obtained by
equating the volume eroded from the beach face
with the volume deposited offshore. The obtained

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values are maximum potential values that will not


be reached due to the time lack between the storm
action and the prole response. Using the characteristic erosion time scale, as dened by Kriebel
and Dean (1993), it is possible to compute the ratio
of the erosion time scale to the storm duration. This
ratio is higher for short-duration storms and smaller
for long-duration storms. At the limit, if this value
equals zero the potential and the actual erosion
values would be equal. After determining the
erosion time scale ratio it is possible to compute
the nal predicted erosion value, by using the ratio
between the actual and the potential erosion values,
determined using either a graphical or a numerical
approach.
The obtained shoreline retreat induced by a
50-year return period storm (R50) can therefore be
computed using the convolution model, and can be
added to the set-back line S50c to obtain a storm setback line S50s (Fig. 2c):
S 50s S 50c R50 .

(6)

As the extreme storm can occur at any time


during the period under consideration, for a
cautious approach the computed shoreline retreat
is added to the expected most landward position of
the shoreline. For coastal stretches undergoing
erosion, dynamic stability, or minor accretion
(scenario (b) at Fig. 2c), S50c is achieved at the
end of the period of interest, while for coastal areas
facing strong accretion (scenario (a) at Fig. 2c),
S 50c S0 .

1035

comparing the obtained maximum swash level with


the dune elevation at the S50s line (see Fig. 2c).
2.4. Representation of set-back lines
To summarize, the set-back lines dened are: S0
(the shoreline position at time zero); S50 (the
estimated shoreline position in 50 years assuming
a constant rate of shoreline evolution); S50c (the
shoreline position adjusted for ASLR); and S50s (the
set-back line position assuming the occurrence of a
major storm). A schematic representation of how to
dene these set-back lines for areas under accretion,
dynamic stability or erosion is shown in Fig. 2,
which includes the various steps described above.
The USA Federal Emergency Management Agency
recommends that the depiction of erosion hazard
areas should be made onto current orthophotos,
aerial photography, or other base imagery (see
Crowell et al., 1999a, b). Therefore, we recommend
that the set-back lines determined using the method
developed here should be plotted onto such imagery
as is available for the particular area under
consideration.
3. Test case: Ancao Peninsula
The method was applied to the Ancao Peninsula
(Fig. 1), a coastal area with alongshore differences
in shoreline behaviour that allowed the method to
be applied to the three dened conditions (accretion, dynamic stability, and erosion).
3.1. Study area

2.3.2. Overwash
For the purposes of this study overwash occurs
when the maximum swash level exceeds the dune
elevation (or berm if dune is absent) at the S50s line.
The maximum runup associated with the 50-year
return period storm can be determined by applying
the Battjes (1971) formulation
Rmax H so Lo 0:5 tan b,

(7)

where tan b is the beach face slope; Hso is the


signicant offshore wave height associated with the
storm; and L0 is the wave length, given by 1.56T2,
where T is the storm peak period.
The obtained result for the maximum runup must
be added to a dened storm sea-level (e.g. average
high water level of spring tides+storm surge) to
obtain the maximum swash elevation. Areas with
the potential for overwash are identied by directly

Ancao Peninsula is the westernmost barrier of the


Ria Formosa barrier island system. It is a NWSEoriented sandy barrier that is attached to mainland
by its western terminus (Fig. 1). Tides in the area are
semi-diurnal with a tidal range of 2.8 and 1.3 m
during spring and neap tides, respectively, and a
maximum high tide level of about 1.8 m above
MSL. The dominant incident wave direction is
W-SW, which occurs around 68% of the year
(Costa, 1994). E-SE waves correspond to waves
generated by local winds, termed Levante, and occur
during 29% of the year. The mean annual
signicant wave height is 0.92 m and the mean peak
period is 8 s (Costa, 1994). The most signicant
storms (events with offshore signicant wave height
43 m) that affect the Ancao Peninsula are events
from the W-SW. This wave climate is responsible

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for an eastward-directed net longshore drift, which


is considered to be the main sand supplier for the
coastal system, being nourished by updrift cliff
erosion (Dias, 1986). Several estimates of longshore
sediment transport have been made, with values
ranging from 6  103 (Andrade, 1990) up to
3  105 m/year (Bettencourt, 1994).
The beach in the central area of the peninsula is
often reective during high tide and intermediate
during low tide (Martins et al., 1996). The beach
along the study area was classied as a Low Tide
Terrace Beach by Martins et al. (1997) according to
the morphodynamic classication of Masselink and
Hegge (1995). The barrier has a single dune ridge,
the height of which decreases to the east, from 9.3 m
(above MSL) near the mainland attachment, to
6.5 m (above MSL) near the Ancao Inlet. The ridge
can be divided into three segments with respect to
the location of Praia de Faro: the west, the central
part, and the east.
To the west of Praia de Faro, the peninsula has a
generally continuous dune ridge, which is mostly
uninhabited except where interrupted locally by a
few bars/restaurants near the attachment to the
mainland. A permanent erosion scarp denes the
transition from the dune to the beach, denoting an
ongoing shoreline retreat process. In the centre of
this segment, there is a large breach in the dune
ridge that corresponds to the location of a relict
ephemeral tidal inlet opened during the rst half of
the 20th century. Currently, the surface of this
breach is totally vegetated and is not overwashed.
The central part of the peninsula includes the
Praia de Faro settlement, which is the only location
accessible by car along the Ria Formosa barriers.
Along the 3-km-long extent of this coastal segment
the dune ridge has been almost completely destroyed by the construction of residential, tourist,
and recreational infrastructures. In order to prevent
property damage, some parts of the oceanfront of
this developed area have been articially stabilised
with revetments. These structures have inhibited the
shoreline retreat but are commonly overwashed in
several locations when high-energy stormy waves
coincide with spring high tides.
To the east of Praia de Faro, the Ancao Peninsula
has a low-density population consisting mainly of
shermen, most of whom inhabit the lagoon
margin. At the ocean front, accretion is indicated
by a wide, vegetated backshore. The Ancao inlet, at
the eastern end of the case study area, is presently
migrating to the east after its articial relocation in

1997 (Vila-Concejo et al., 2003). The eastern sandy


spit currently forming is the only area along the
eastern segment of the Ancao Peninsula that is
periodically overwashed, due to its low-lying
topography.
3.2. Results
3.2.1. Shoreline evolution and future shoreline
position
Aerial photographs from circa 1945, 1976, 1989,
and 2001 were analysed to obtain the shoreline
evolution of the study area. For the determination
of the SERs it was initially intended to use a long
period approach (1945/2001 or 1976/2001) or a
linear adjustment approach including all obtained
values. It was however observed that changes on the
shoreline evolutionary trend occurred within the
overall analysed period. The studied area changed
from a generic accretion or dynamic equilibrium
condition in 1945/1976 to a state where erosion
prevails at the western sector and accretion dominates at the eastern part. The shoreline retreat
observed at the western sector is only well marked at
the latest analysed period (1989/2001), in association to the eastern displacement of an erosive
process started on the 1970s with the construction
of the Vilamoura Marina jetties (see Correia et al.,
1996), 10 km to the west of the Ancao Peninsula. As
a consequence, it was decided that only the aerial
photographs from 1989 and 2001 (scale 1/8000)
would be used to identify the shoreline position
evolution.
The calculation of shoreline evolution was made
by using the end-point-rate method, in which the
distance between two shorelines is measured and
divided by the time elapsed between the shoreline
positions (Crowell et al., 1999b). ER Mapper
software was used to geo-reference the aerial
photographs and to create geo-referenced mosaics
of the study area. GIS MapInfo software was used
to dene beach transects 250 m apart (Fig. 3). A
computation of the shoreline retreat was made for
each of the 31 transects established along the Ancao
Peninsula. In order to estimate the method error, 16
reference points were used for the entire mosaic.
The transverse (cross-shore) horizontal distance
between the same reference points at the two
mosaics (1989 and 2001) denes the estimate of
the method error. Maximum offsets had a value of
3.5 m, the average deviation was 1.1 m, and the 90th
percentile was 3.1 m. The 90th percentile was used

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Fig. 3. Transects used for determining shoreline evolution rates along Ancao Peninsula between 1989 and 2001.

as a measurement of the error, allowing the


exclusion of potential erratic values. Therefore,
shoreline changes of less than 0.26 m/year (90th
percentile error divided by 12 years) can be
considered to lie within the measurement uncertainty of the method.
To smooth changes in SERs from transect to
transect, minimizing measurements errors or uncertainties and avoiding great discontinuities in the
set-back lines to be dened, a 3-point moving
average was applied to the obtained shoreline
change values. This means that each nal value
represents an average behaviour of three transects
(750 m), including the transect to which the value is
referred to and the two transects in the immediate
vicinity.
Transects 115 (Fig. 3) denote shoreline retreat, with values ranging from 0.470.26 to
1.370.26 m/year, and with an average value of
0.870.26 m/year. Transects 1627 show almost no
variation with most of the values lying within the
range of measurement uncertainty, and individual
values ranging from 0.270.26 to 0.470.26 m/
year. Transects 2831 exhibit a general accretionary
trend, with an average value of 0.670.26 m/year
and a range of values from 0.470.26 to

0.870.26 m/year. Based on the results, it is possible


to dene three sectors with distinct behaviour: the
western (W) sector, under erosion (transects 115);
the central (C) sector, with a low degree of changes
and several sub-sectors in dynamic stability (transects 1627); and the eastern (E) sector, under
accretion (transects 2831).
The value of each transect after moving average
can be used as SER value for Eq. (1) in order to
calculate S50 lines. The S50 line for the western
sector is therefore placed between 18 and 63 m
landward of S0 (Fig. 4, Table 1), while S50 lines for
the central and eastern sectors are equal to S0 with
an area of exception at the western part of the
Central sector, where some transects presented a
small erosive behaviour (Fig. 4, Table 1). Set-back
lines were plotted on top of the most recent and
available aerial photographs (year 2001) of the
study area (Fig. 4).
3.2.2. Adjustment for ASLR
To determine the additional erosion induced by
ASLR, it was necessary to dene its value 50 years
into the future, and to collect information on the
morphological characteristics of the study area. The
actual sea-level rise (SLRp) estimated for Portugal

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O. Ferreira et al. / Continental Shelf Research 26 (2006) 10301044

Fig. 4. Final coastal hazards representation for Ancao Peninsula, including all dened set-back lines for the western, central, and eastern
sectors.

is about 1.5 mm/year (Dias and Taborda, 1988),


which is comparable with the average global trend
as dened by other studies (e.g. IPCC, 2001; Miller
and Douglas, 2004). In order to incorporate the
uncertainties related to future sea-level rise predictions, and taking a cautious approach, a value of
0.29 m was used as an estimate of SL50 (expected
rise in SL50s). This value is based on the highest
prediction for the SRES scenarios, which includes

the sum of the contributions from thermal expansion, glaciers, ice sheets, thawing of permafrost, and
sedimentation effects (IPCC, 2001). By using these
values for Eq. (2), an adjustment value for ASLR
(SLRa) of about 0.215 m was obtained.
Based on a 2-year monitoring programme of
beach topography and bathymetry at the study
area, including monthly surveys, it was possible to
dene the depth of closure (h) as lying 11 m below

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Table 1
Set-back line positions (in m) landward to the shoreline position
at time zero (S0) for all transects and sectors
Transect

Sector

S50

S50c

S50s

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

West
West
West
West
West
West
West
West
West
West
West
West
West
West
West
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
Central
East
East
East
East

34
40
53
60
63
63
57
54
41
33
24
23
31
23
18
11
9
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

42
49
62
68
71
71
65
63
49
41
33
31
39
32
26
20
18
16
9
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

68
75
88
94
97
98
91
89
75
67
59
57
65
58
52
51
49
46
40
40
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
23
23
23
23

MSL (Ferreira, 2005). The measured average dune


elevations (D) are 9.3, 7.3, and 6.5 m above MSL,
for transects from sectors W, C, and E, respectively.
The average horizontal distance between upper
(beach/dune edge) and lower prole (depth of
closure) limits (L) is 774 m.
By inserting the obtained values into Eq. (3),
additional shoreline retreat values (Ra) of 8.2, 9.0,
and 9.5 m were computed for transects belonging to
sectors W, C, and E, respectively. The application of
Eq. (4) allows the position of the shoreline adjusted
for ASLR (S50c) to be calculated. For the western
sector, S50c is placed about 2671 m landward of S0
(Fig. 4, Table 1), while for the central sector varies
from 0 to 20 m landward from S0 (Fig. 4, Table 1).
In the eastern sector, S50c remains always equal to
S0 since the expected seaward shoreline displacement is greater than the predicted effect of ASLR
(Fig. 4, Table 1).

1039

3.2.3. Extreme storm impacts (instantaneous


shoreline retreat and overwash)
The convolution model for determining the
amount of shoreline retreat induced by an extreme
(50-year return period) storm was applied using the
values reported in Table 2. The results show
landward displacements of 26.1, 30.6, and 23.4 m
for the W, C, and E sectors, respectively (Table 2).
By inserting these values into Eq. (6), the S50s setback lines are calculated, varying from 52 to 98 m
for the western sector, from 31 to 51 m at the central
sector, and having a value of 23 m at the eastern
sector (Fig. 4; Table 1).
To determine the expected maximum runup
associated with the 50-year return period storm,
values of Hso and tan b from Table 2 were used. The
storm peak period was determined at 13 s, according
to the association between peak periods and offshore wave heights established by Costa et al. (2001)
for the Faro buoy. The calculated maximum runup
was 5.1 m for sectors W and C, and 6.0 m for sector
E. These values were added to the storm actuation
level (S0 2:15 m, Table 2), which includes both
tide elevation (average high water of spring tides,
1.4 m above MSL) and storm surge (0.75 m,
Table 2
Morphological and wave characteristics used for the convolution
model, and calculated shoreline retreat (R50), for each dened
sector
Characteristics

Sector W

Sector C

Sector E

Hso (m)a
Td (days)b
Ac
S0 (m)d
tan be
B (m)e
D0 (m)e
W (m)e
R50 (m)

8.1
5
0.18
2.15
0.11
3.2
6.1
14.3
26

8.1
5
0.18
2.15
0.11
2.9
4.4
12.7
31

8.1
5
0.18
2.15
0.13
3.5
3.0
26.4
23

Hso: offshore signicant wave height; Td: storm duration; A:


Dean parameter for the equilibrium prole equation; S0 : storm
actuation level; tan b: beach face slope; B: berm height; D0 : dune
elevation above B; W: berm width.
a
From Pires (1998).
b
From Costa et al. (2001).
c
Using a mean grain size of 0.5 mm (Martins et al., 1996) and
an associated fall velocity of 0.07 m s1.
d
Sum of the average high water level of spring tides (1.4 m
above MSL) and the maximum observed storm surge level at the
Lagos tide gauge (0.75 m, Gama et al., 1994).
e
Average values for the different sectors of the Ancao
Peninsula, based on data from an intensive monitoring program
(Dias et al., 2000).

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O. Ferreira et al. / Continental Shelf Research 26 (2006) 10301044

maximum observed storm surge measured at Lagos,


Algarve, Gama et al., 1994). The resulting maximum swash levels obtained were 7.25 m for sectors
W and C, and 8.15 m for sector E. These values lie
above the present backbarrier levels at the position
of the S50s lines for all sectors. As a consequence,
overwashes are expected to occur along the entire
extent of the study area for the dened conditions
(Fig. 4), if the dunes do not experience signicant
increases in height during the 50-year period of
interest.
4. Discussion
4.1. Evaluation of the method
The method presented in this paper was aimed at
identifying future hazardous areas for a dened
period, by predicting shoreline movements and the
effects of extreme storms, based on the best
available scientic knowledge. The method is based
on a worst-case scenario approach, since for
medium- to long-term coastal management a
cautious perspective should be taken.
4.1.1. Shoreline evolution
The end-point-rate method (average shoreline
retreat rate for the analysed period) was used for
the computation of SER values for the study area.
However, some authors have pointed to the use of
linear regression (determining the best-t line
through several shoreline positions) as the best
estimate of predicted shoreline changes (e.g. Crowell
et al., 1999b). The linear regression method was not
used in the current study because the available set of
shoreline positions with good quality and accuracy
was considered to be too small to be representative.
It was also observed a shift in the shoreline
evolutionary trend at the study area, with the
western sector showing important shoreline retreat
since the 1980s (see explanation at Section 3.2.1).
Therefore, it was chosen to use just the last analysed
period (1989/2001) as being representative of the
recent trends in shoreline evolution, which are in
agreement with present conditions of sediment
supply and sea-level rise. Moreover, the use of a
decadal time scale (12 years for the test case) for
shoreline evolution analysis is sufcient to integrate
most of the long-term causes of coastal evolution
and largely reduces the inuence of short-term
(inter-annual) shoreline uctuations due to, for
example, the effects of smaller storms.

The USA Federal Emergency Management


Agency dened 60 years as the pertinent period
for which set-back lines should be calculated to
dene areas of erosion hazard (Crowell et al.,
1999a, b). A similar value (50 years) was established
for the current study, as the main concern for the
period denition was that it should be applicable to
long-term coastal management and not be inuenced by short-term climatic variability. In addition,
data about the occurrence of extreme events and the
characteristics of extreme storms are normally
available for 25-, 50-, and 100-year return periods.
The use of a 50-year period denes a long-term
coastal management scenario based on the mediumto long-term historic evolution of the coastline, but
at the same time allows re-evaluation of set-back
lines during that period, at intervals of 510 years,
using updated scientic data.
Since the SER values derived from the method
provide only an average evolution rate for the
analysed period, they have only limited use for
projecting shoreline evolution into the future (see
Moore et al., 1999; Kaminsky et al., 1999). It is
therefore important to reapply the method at
intervals of 510 years, for a new 50-year period.
Five-yearly map reviews are already performed in
hazardous areas in the USA, as dened by the
Federal Emergency Management Agency (see Bellomo et al., 1999). The reapplication and reevaluation of the method should incorporate both
new formulations (if scientic advances have been
made) and new data and information about the
study area (e.g. updated shoreline evolution, updated wave characteristics). As a consequence, the
method as presented here is able to produce not
only initial set-back lines of immediate use for
coastal management, but also updated set-back
lines that will ensure future management decisions
based on the best scientic knowledge available at a
particular time.
4.1.2. Adjustment for ASLR
The ASLR value employed in the method is a
cautious one, given that the prediction for ASLR in
50 years time ranges from 0.04 to 0.29 m (IPCC,
2001). As for other hazard cases, a worst-case
scenario approach was used and should be respected
for coastal management purposes.
The formulation used to dene shoreline retreat
(the Bruun Rule), is not without criticism (e.g.
Pilkey and Cooper, 2004), since it sweeps the
existing prediction difculties under a rug of

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O. Ferreira et al. / Continental Shelf Research 26 (2006) 10301044

simplication (Day, 2004). However, although only


a few data have been proved to be consistent with
Bruuns model predictions (see Day, 2004), the rule
was developed for uniform sandy shorefaces, which
coincides with the aim of application of the set-back
line denition method in this study. We consider the
Bruun rule to be the most appropriate (although not
perfect) formulation for our purpose that is
currently available. However, a more reliable
relationship between shoreline evolution and sealevel rise may be developed in the future, which
could be incorporated in this method and thereby
improve the reliability of the results.
4.1.3. Extreme storm impacts
4.1.3.1. Instantaneous shoreline retreat. The denition of set-back lines associated with the effects of a
50-year return period storm would be made easier if
more reliable, long-term (decade-scale) eld survey
data sets were available, including measurements of
the amount of erosion induced by storms. Since
such data sets do not exist for the substantial
majority of coastal areas, an alternative approach to
predict extreme storm effects is to use models. At
the present stage of research, precise predictions of
small-scale prole changes are not feasible, no
matter what type of model is used (van Rijn et al.,
2003). However, models may be used to evaluate
worst-case scenarios for assumed storm surge levels
(van Rijn et al., 2003), as in the case of the current
study. The chosen modelthe convolution model
of Kriebel and Dean (1993)is one of the most
intensively veried (Schoonees and Theron, 1995),
and it has been tested with good results for the
Portuguese coast (Ferreira, 1998; Ferreira and Dias,
2000). It is also a simple analytical model with easy
application. Other models could conceivably be
applied to estimate the amount of the erosion
induced by extreme storms, providing that the
computed results could be shown to be reliable for
the particular coastal areas of application.
As the application of these models is highly
dependent on the quality of the input parameters
(e.g. storm surge, wave characteristics, storm duration), it is expected that the estimates derived from
the models will be rened in the future as further
data are acquired and analysed.
4.1.3.2. Overwashes. The accuracy of estimates of
maximum runup and swash levels depends on the
accuracy of the wave parameters used, and therefore
on the quality of the available wave predictions.

1041

Other formulations could potentially be used


instead of that developed by Battjes (1971), if tested
and veried for each area of application.
The method used here determines the potential
overwash by comparing the obtained maximum
swash level with the dune elevation at S50s. This is
quite different from the approach used for dening
ood zones by the USA Federal Emergency
Management Agency. Their widely used approach
determines potential ood areas for existing conditions and assumes that the projected ood zone
boundaries and base ood elevations would be
shifted approximately the same distance as the
width of the x-year dened shoreline retreat hazard
(Crowell et al., 1999b). In coastal areas such as
barrier islands or sandy shores with single dune
ridges, the shoreline retreat for a given period can be
responsible for the complete erosion of the foredune
and, therefore, the likelihood of overwash occurrence will increase.
Our proposed method, by using the elevation at
the S50s set-back line, would appear to be based on
more realistic assumptions than is the simple
distance offset approach of the FEMA. However,
although the proposed method is able to identify
sites where overwash would break through, it does
not determine the inland extension of such washover areas, which could only be achieved by using a
Digital Elevation Model to dene which inland
areas lay below the expected ood elevation.
However, factors such as estimated runup velocity,
beach and dune porosity, water percolation, and
drag coefcients at the dune would be needed for a
proper denition of the ooding. These types of
data do not often exist, making a fully quantied
denition of the spatial extent of ooding very
difcult to achieve.
4.2. Test case analysis
The set-back lines as dened show that the
majority of the Ancao Peninsula is in danger of
experiencing erosion-related coastal hazards within
50 years. This is particularly true for the western
sector, where the S50s line is plotted over the lowlying backbarrier and, in some places, landward to
the lagoon beach. This indicates a scenario encompassing the complete erosion of the foredune, the
occurrence of extensive overwashes, and the opening of new inlets to the west of Praia de Faro. This
scenario is similar to the observed evolution of the
Cacela Peninsula (at the eastern end of the Ria

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O. Ferreira et al. / Continental Shelf Research 26 (2006) 10301044

Formosa, see Fig. 1), where in the last 60 years the


barrier has experienced a signicant amount of
shoreline retreat, an increase in washover areas, and
the opening of a new inlet (Matias, 2000). This
process will lead to the existence of a barrier
dominated by roll-over processes associated with
overwashes and inlet dynamics.
Along the central sector, in which Praia de Faro
is established, the expected shoreline retreat combined with extreme storm action could become responsible for the destruction of houses,
roads, and other infrastructure. This has already happened in the past (e.g. winter of 1989/90)
and it is likely to reoccur in the near future.
Currently, overwashes are common in the articially lowered areas of Praia de Faro. According to
our predictions, such overwashes will likely be
intensied in the future, and will reach areas not
yet affected.
Computed set-back lines for the eastern sector
reect primarily the impacts of extreme storms,
because this sector is undergoing accretion. The setback line S50s considers the existence of the extreme
storm at the beginning of the 50-year period of
interest. Therefore, this line will be displaced
seaward as the shoreline moves. However, it should
be noted that the accretion occurred mainly post1997, after the opening of a new, articial Ancao
Inlet. This inlet formed a well-developed ebb delta,
which acts as a sediment trap, thereby causing
the observed seaward shoreline displacement. The
inlet is presently migrating to the east (Vila-Concejo
et al., 2003) at a rate of a few tens of metres per
year. This will cause a continuous eastward
displacement of the boundary between the central
and eastern sectors. The reapplication of the
method every 510 years would track the eastward
shift of this boundary and dene any concomitant
displacement of the set-back lines. The expected
coastline evolution along the eastern sector should
lead to an increase in dune height and to the
formation of foredunes. Therefore, the dune height
along the S50s line should increase in the future,
thereby decreasing the vulnerability to overwash.
This is not expected to occur along coastal areas
under erosion characterized by dune scarps, along
areas where dune vegetation is well established
(and where aeolian transport is therefore reduced), or where the dunes have been replaced by
human settlements. Therefore, an increase in dune
height is not expected along the western and central
sectors.

5. Conclusions
The denition of set-back lines is of fundamental
importance to the development of good coastal
management, since it denes boundaries that mark
the extent of impingement by coastal hazards. The
main goal of this paper was to present a new
method for the denition of set-back lines, integrating results from shoreline evolution, acceleration of
sea-level rise, and instantaneous shoreline retreat
and potential overwashes induced by an extreme
storm. The method is based on a worst-case
scenario approach and is applied to a 50-year
period. It has been developed for sandy shores,
and should be of use not only for areas facing
coastal erosion but also for coastal stretches under
conditions of dynamic stability or accretion.
The method was applied to a case study along
Ancao Peninsula, a barrier spit located within the
Ria Formosa barrier island system, Algarve, Portugal. Three sectors (western, central and eastern)
were dened according to the morphological
characteristics and dominant shoreline evolution
(erosion, dynamic stability, and accretion). Along
the western sector, the method predicts the future
destruction of the dune ridge, and the starting of a
roll-over evolution process, together with the
occurrence of inlet opening processes. For the
central sector, intensication of overwashes and
consequent infrastructural damage is predicted.
Along the eastern sector, the main coastal hazards
relate to the potential occurrence of an extreme
storm, which could cause the erosion of the
foredune and the occurrence of overwashes.
Since most of the assumptions of the method are
embedded with a worst-case scenario approach, the
method has a conservative character, which is
benecial for coastal management purposes. For
more accurate predictions, detailed long-term data
coupled with a renement of coastal evolution
models, for both coastal changes and on-shore
wave parameters, would be necessary. However, the
periodic denition of the set-back lines tends to
attenuate some degree of uncertainty stemming
from the low quality/quantity (or absence) of some
key variables (e.g. depth of closure, or morphologic
changes induced by extreme storms). It is therefore
recommended that the method, if possible, should
be rened in the future, and reapplied every 510
years to the coastal areas of interest.
It is also important to stress that the denition of
set-back lines does not necessarily mean that it is

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O. Ferreira et al. / Continental Shelf Research 26 (2006) 10301044

appropriate to develop the coastal area immediately


landward of these lines, not even in areas presently
under accretion. This is particularly important in
low-lying areas where overwashes may occur landward of the inner set-back line, and also expose
areas of environmental value (e.g. salt marshes).
Acknowledgements
This work was funded by the PRIMO project
Prediction and Impacts of Runup and Overwashes
(FCT contract 39849/CTA/2001), and by the
RIMAR projectRiscos Naturais Associados a
Variac- oes do N vel do Mar (FCT PRAXIS no2/2.1/
% FCT
MAR/1743/95). Ana Matias was supported by
grant SFRH/1356/2000.

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