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Figure 1: How carmakers rank on CO2 emissions some carmakers are still falling short of meeting the 2021 targets
Actual data (g CO/km)** PA forecast (g CO/km)***
Rank*
(g CO/km)
Carmaker
2011
2013
2015
2016
2018
2021
2021 Target
Deviation
128.5
115.7
104.6
100.5
94.8
87.2
88.5
-1.3
Toyota
126.4
116.8
108.3
103.1
98.9
89.8
91.8
-2.0
Renault-Nissan
129.0
119.2
112.1
109.1
102.4
90.4
91.8
-1.4
Ford
132.7
121.8
118.0
114.9
108.1
93.5
91.7
1.8
General Motors
135.0
132.8
127.0
123.4
113.1
96.8
93.1
3.7
Hyundai-Kia
134.0
129.8
127.3
124.0
115.6
96.9
91.6
5.3
Volvo
154.0
130.8
121.9
117.4
109.7
97.4
99.5
-2.1
118.3
123.8
122.2
119.3
113.3
98.6
92.1
6.5
Volkswagen
135.4
128.9
121.5
118.6
110.7
99.1
96.3
2.8
10
Daimler
153.0
136.6
124.7
120.3
111.3
100.8
99.7
1.1
11
BMW
145.0
134.4
126.4
122.1
113.4
103.5
100.1
3.4
12
206.0
182.0
165.0
156.7
149.5
132.8
132.0
0.8
1.
*rank on 2021 forecast **data from ICCT 2016 ***based on actual data until 2015 (ICCT) and PA forecast estimation
<0
0-2
>2
Rankings by
manufacturer
KEY:
2021 TARGET
High
BMW
DAIMLER
VW
FIAT CHRYSLER
VOLVO
CO2
emissions
Forecasted CO2
emission of
Hyundai-Kias fleet is
behind target in 2021
HYUNDAI-KIA
GM
FORD
RENAULT-NISSAN
Forecasted CO2
emission of Toyotas
fleet is ahead of
target in 2021
TOYOTA
PEUGEOT CITROEN
Low
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
150
140
130
120
CO2 g/km
High
CO2
emissions
JLR
190
180
170
160
CO2 g/km
Figure 3: Key differences between the two test cycles discussed in Europe
Criteria
units
NEDC (current)
WLTP (future)
Duration
1180
1800
Distance
km
11.03
23.27
Mean velocity
km/h
33.6
46.5
Maximum velocity
km/h
120.0
131.3
14
Stop phases
Duration
Deceleration
178
Acceleration
247
Stop
280
NEDC
(current)
Constant driving
475
Stop
226
Constant
driving
66
Deceleration
719
WLTP
(future)
Acceleration
789
10
Figure 4: Real driving CO2 emissions are higher than measured in the NEDC tests - the average difference has
more than doubled
CO
WINNER
Downsizing (engines with increased efficiency in low load regions are disadvantaged)
Start-stop system (fewer stops in WLTP)
Turbo charging
Catalysator heating measures and extra equipment
LOSER
* EU average hypothetical real driving emissions based on the deviation level of fuel consumption: data from ICCT and Spritmonitor.de
Source: ICCT, 2015, laboratory road 2015 update and based on real on-board testing
11
C: Medium cars
D: Large cars
-4 to 2
12
CO2 limits worldwide are becoming stricter while testing procedures are
getting longer and closer to reality posing a two-fold challenge for carmakers
Figure 7: International comparison of test cycles
NEDC
since 1992
WLTP
FTP 75
JC08
starting 2017*
since 2008
since 2015
Japan
Duration
1180
1800
1874
1200
Distance
11
23.3
17.8
8.2
131
91
80
Not considered
Considered
Considered
Considered
Highly dynamic
Ambient temperature up to
30C allowed
Maximum velocity
Extra equipment
Key characteristics
120
2002
-24%
-27%
-16%
-25%
130
In discussion:
95
2015
2020
160
121
67-78
2025
2016
2020
125
91
2025
2015
121
105
2020
*2017-2020 is the phased introduction of the WLTP; however, NEDC test procedures will be used at the same time, and only results of NEDC will be taken into account for measurement
against the specific emission targets. From 2020 the WLTP will be used for 95%, from 2021 for 100% of the vehicle testing.
13
2015
Norway
100.5
110.5
101.3
106.7
Netherlands
106.0
110.9
Denmark
110.9
113.9
France
114.3
116.9
Ireland
117.9
Italy
115.7
118.6
Spain
121.2
124.6
UK
126.2
130.8
Sweden
127.3
131.9
Germany
134.6
141.5
Switzerland
114.9
Gross National
Income [] per
capita 2015
Direct
PHEV/BEV
incentive []
PHEV/BEV
% of new
cars 2015
93,280
22.4%
48,940
9.7%
58,590
2.3%
40,580
6,300
1.2%
46,680
2,500-5,000
0.5%
32,790
0.1%
28,520
2,700-6,000
0.2%
43,340
< 6,000
1.1%
57,810
4,200
2.6%
45,790
3,000-4,000
0.7%
84,180
2.1%
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
14
Figure 9: Increasing sales of electric vehicles can play a part in reducing fleet emissions but manufacturers sales
performance is very variable
2014-2015 Registration
EU-28 (%)
CO emissions in g/km
HEV*
2015
2021**
Target
2021***
104.6
87.2
88.5
Toyota
108.3
89.8
91.8
Renault-Nissan
112.1
90.4
91.8
Ford
118.0
93.5
91.7
General Motors
127.0
96.8
93.1
Hyundai-Kia
127.3
96.9
91.6
Volvo
121.9
97.4
99.5
122.2
98.6
92.1
Volkswagen
121.5
99.1
96.3
Daimler
124.7
100.8
99.7
BMW
126.4
103.5
100.1
174.1
132.8
132.0
Carmaker
PHEV*
BEV*
** PA forecast
*** Based on forecasted fleet
**** Based on selected mid-size sedans, smallest
engine, no extra equipment
2016-2021 new
models
HEV
PHEV
BEV
Pricing difference
PHEV vs. cheapest
conventional model****
n/a
very
low
low
mid
high
very
high
15
16
17
18
About our
methodology
The following assumptions were made to forecast car
manufacturers specific CO targets and emissions.
Manufacturer specific CO targets depend on the
average fleet weight of each carmaker and their
difference from the average weight of all new
registered vehicles. We forecasted the average fleet
weight of each manufacturer using a PA assessment
on present and previous weight trends, as well as
their capability to reduce weight in the future. The
expected potential of each carmaker to enlarge their
product portfolio with smaller and lighter cars is also an
important factor.
The specific CO emissions performance reflects a
weighted fleet average, taking into account super credits
for low emission vehicles (less than 50g CO/km).
Therefore, we made assumptions for each manufacturer
regarding the development of the CO emissions of
different powertrain types, such as internal combustion
machines, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and others,
such as natural gas. Our 2021 forecasts are based on
the NEDC test cycle as this will remain in place for
manufacturers even though the WLTP tests will be
phased in from next year for consumer information.
We also calculated the respective number of registrations
of each powertrain type for each manufacturer using an
extrapolation of current trends and PA market insights
into the future focus of individual carmakers.
19
To find out how our experts can help you meet European carbon
emissions reduction targets, please contact us now.
Tel: +49 69 71 70 22 93
Email: Karsten.Gross@paconsulting.com
www.paconsulting.com/CO2ranking
Corporate headquarters
123 Buckingham Palace Road
London SW1W 9SR
United Kingdom
+44 20 7730 9000
Deutschland
An der Welle 3
60322 Frankfurt am Main
+49 69 71 70 20
Maximilianstrae 13
80539 Mnchen
Tel: +49 89 203006 440
paconsulting.com
This document has been prepared byPA.
Thecontents of this document donot
constitute any form of commitment or
recommendation on the part of PA and
speakas at the date of their preparation.