3 views

Original Title: Rainfall Runoff Analysis Of Damanganga Basin By Using Artificial Neural Network

Uploaded by GRD Journals

- 1.Man-challenges in Service Delivery Within the-peter Kiprotich Cheruiyot 123
- Part 5 - Prediction Error Methods
- TRRL Lab Report 706
- 37049-023-ino-tacr-01
- v081n05p117 South African Mining and Metallurgy Journal
- Regional Meeting on Hydro-informatics and Developing Knowledge Hub Networks - Presentation Yellow River Flood Forecast
- Gubler 2011 Measurement and Analysis of GST
- 8
- Fitting Linear Regression in SPSS and Output Interpretation
- Stata 3, Linear Regression v3
- PEER_stage2_10.1136%2Fbjo.2009.158097
- The Course Outline - Quantitative Foundations 2012to 2013
- Himanshu a 21
- Lecture 10 Notes
- Lecture4 Module2 Anova 1
- Unit II (1)
- Cost Accounting.docx
- xlm-xlm0000249
- Chapter 1,2,3 (Rev)
- eco

You are on page 1of 7

e-ISSN: 2455-5703

by using Artificial Neural Network

1Ashvin

1,2,3

Assistant Professor

1,2,3

Department of Civil Engineering

1,2,3

S.S.A.S.I. T, Surat, Gujarat, India

Abstract

Rainfall, runoff is highly non-linear and complicated phenomena in nature which requires modeling and simulation for the accurate

prediction. The tool used to predict the rainfall-runoff pattern is by formulating the model using artificial neural network. The

general application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) act as black-box models of rainfall-runoff processes. The ANNs have

been applied to both real and theoretical catchments with both measured and synthetically-generated rainfall-runoff data. The ANN

tool has become an attractive alternative to the traditional statistical methods. This review considers the application of artificial

neural networks (ANNs) to rainfallrunoff modeling. The effects of the number of layers are studied on the observed data and the

result so obtained is compared with the observed values. Validation of the models is also discussed in the study. Different types of

ANN Networks are compared with their architectures and based on their model performances. The present work involves RainfallRunoff modeling using Artificial Neural Network Using ANN software tool Neuro-solution, Linear Regression by least squares

method using Microsoft office tool Excel is done also. The eight years data from 2001-2008 is utilized for analysis. The RainfallRunoff model is developed by applying Multilayer perceptron (MLP) and Linear Regression (LR) to predict daily Runoff as a

function of daily rainfall for the catchment area under consideration of Damanganga basin. Neural network architecture is

established for daily rainfall-runoff relationship for monsoon season data and yearly data. A linear regression model is also

formulated. The seasonal data gives a better fit in comparison to yearly data and it gives higher value of coefficient of

determination.

Keyword- Rainfall-Runoff, Prediction, ANN, Least Mean Square, Linear Regression

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

I. INTRODUCTION

1) Rainfall: The quantity of water, usually expressed in millimeters or inches, that is precipitated in liquid form in a specified

area and time interval. Rainfall is often considered to include solid precipitation such as snow, hail, and sleet as well.

2) Runoff: Quantity of water discharge in surface stream. Runoff include not only the water that over the land surface and

through channels to reach a stream but also interflow, the water that infiltration the soil surface and travel by means of gravity

toward a stream channel.

Rainfall being the predominant form of precipitation causing stream flow, especially flood flow in majority of rivers in India. The

relationship of rainfall-runoff is known to be highly non-linear and complex. The rainfall-runoff relationship is one of the most

complex hydrologic phenomena to understand because of various reasons such as uncertainty in the rainfall, uneven pattern of

rainfall, variations with respect to space and time, etc. Parametric models use mathematical transfer functions (such as multiple

linear regression equations) to relate meteorological variables to runoff.

Therefore, the present study was undertaken in order to develop rainfall-runoff models that can be used to provide reliable

and accurate estimates of runoff and the linear regression and multiple linear regression carried out. Modelling is done by using

rainfall data of eight years of rain-gauge station Madhuban dam, Nani Palsan, Ozarkheda, Mokheda and Dindore runoff data for

the same catchment areas of Damanganga basin.

The following are the main objectives of study:

To study rainfall-runoff using artificial neural network.

To develop the rainfall-runoff models using artificial neural network.

To validate the developed models.

To check the performance evaluation of developed models using suitable performance criteria.

Development of rainfall-runoff models for the set of available data only. The proposed study is limited to five catchment

areas of Damanganga basin. Selection of the artificial neural network architecture and configuration is purely based on trial and

error.

445

Rainfall Runoff Analysis of Daman Ganga Basin by using Artificial Neural Network

(GRDJE / CONFERENCE / RACEGS-2016 / 081)

III. METHODOLOGY

Main objective of the present study is to carry out Linear Regression by Least Squares Method and Rainfall Runoff based

Modelling. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Models are developed for daily rainfall-runoff analysis of catchment area named

Damanganga. Model development is discussed in details in the following sections.

Linear Regression by least squares method are developed using built-in features of Microsoft Office Excel. Microsoft

Office Excel facilitates the use of readily available built-in programs for developing Linear Regression. Rainfall-Runoff

relationship can be easily developed using various functions in Microsoft Office Excel. Other theoretical backgrounds are discussed

earlier.

Artificial Neural Network Models are developed using built-in features of Neuro-solutions. Neuro-solution facilitates the

use of readily available built-in programs for developing Artificial Neural Network model. Several options are available for

working with different networks architecture. Rainfall-Runoff model can be easily developed using various functions in Neurosolutions functions. Models development, architecture selection and other theoretical background are discussed. Rainfall-Runoff

modelling using ANN model are discussed in subsequent sections.

Artificial Neural Network Models are used in simulation of the given rainfall runoff values after a set of training. As

discussed in earlier, ANN models map the given input-output patterns with different weights and bias values used between layers

of the network. Simulation plots of rainfall-runoff data and performance statics of the model developed is shown below. In the

present work yearly data is been taken for annual data model development and as well as data of monsoon (June to September) is

been taken for seasonal data model development. Here 80% of the data are used for training and remaining 20% are used for

testing.

A. Results of Linear Regression (LR) by method of Least Squares

Runoff (year: 2007-2008) for

validation

1) Result of Annual Data Model

446

Rainfall Runoff Analysis of Daman Ganga Basin by using Artificial Neural Network

(GRDJE / CONFERENCE / RACEGS-2016 / 081)

flow vs. simulated flow of annual data

of LR

annual data of LR

of annual data of LR

447

Rainfall Runoff Analysis of Daman Ganga Basin by using Artificial Neural Network

(GRDJE / CONFERENCE / RACEGS-2016 / 081)

flow vs. simulated flow of Seasonal data

of LR

Seasonal data of LR

Seasonal data of LR

C. Discussion of Models of LR

The results shown in the table (1 & 3) shows the performance of the annual data model and seasonal data model respectively by

calculating MSE and MAE of the network using LR, the value of which are 48.57 & 3.54, 40.35 & 4.27 respectively that means

network performance is well accepted.

The scatter diagram is generated between observed runoff and simulated runoff for annual data model shown in figures

(5), which gives the value of coefficient of correlation (R2) equal to 0.6559 which is not fit good.

The scatter diagram is generated between observed runoff and simulated runoff for seasonal data model shown in figure

(9), which gives the value of coefficient of correlation (R2) equal to 0.9102 which is nearly to 1, which indicates the goodness of

fit of the model. (R2) having the value of 1.0 indicates that the regression line perfectly fits the data.

Moreover, Plot of Average MSE vs. Epoch and MSE vs. Epoch is generated and shown in Figures (6, 7 & 10, 11) for

annual data and for seasonal data model respectively shows the decrease in the value of MSE indicating that the network is well

trained and is having good performance.

Table(2 & 4) gives the value of MSE is 0.005 & 0.003 for annual data model and seasonal data model respectively of best

of 3 runs of 1000 iterations indicates the good performance of the network.

448

(GRDJE / CONFERENCE / RACEGS-2016 / 081)

1) Result of Annual Data Model

Fig. 12: Day wise simulated and observed runoff of annual data of MLP

flow vs. simulated flow of annual

data of MLP

Epoch of annual data of MLP

annual data of MLP

449

(GRDJE / CONFERENCE / RACEGS-2016 / 081)

Fig. 16: Day wise simulated and observed runoff of Seasonal data of MLP

flow vs. simulated flow of Seasonal

data by MLP.

Epoch of Seasonal data of MLP

Seasonal data of MLP

450

(GRDJE / CONFERENCE / RACEGS-2016 / 081)

The results shown in the table (5 & 7) shows the performance of the annual data model and seasonal data model respectively by

calculating MSE and MAE of the network using MLP, the value of which are 47.60 & 3.61 and 38.56 & 4.48 respectively that

means network performance is well accepted.

The scatter diagram is generated between observed runoff and simulated runoff for annual data model shown in figure

(13), which gives the value of coefficient of correlation (R2) equal to 0.6498 which is not fit good, which indicates the goodness

of fit of the model.

The scatter diagram is generated between observed runoff and simulated runoff for seasonal data model shown in figure

(17), which gives the value of coefficient of correlation (R2) equal to 0.9076 which is nearly to 1, which indicates the goodness of

fit of the model.

(R2) having the value of 1.0 indicates that the regression line perfectly fits the data. Moreover, Plot of Average MSE vs.

Epoch and MSE vs. Epoch is generated and shown in Fig (14 & 15) for annual data model and shown in Fig (18 & 19).for seasonal

data model respectively shows the decrease in the value of MSE indicating that the network is well trained and is having good

performance.

Table (6 & 8) gives the value of MSE is 0.006 & 0.004 for annual data model and seasonal data model respectively of

best of 3 runs of 1000 iterations indicates the good performance of the network.

V. CONCLUSION

Following are the conclusions drawn based on the study carried out:

A linear regression model and ANN architecture is fitted for the daily data of monsoon season and daily data of year for

data set of eight years. Seasonal data model gives a better fit with (R2) values higher than the (R2) values of Annual data model

for both regression model and ANN model.

Results of coefficient of Determination (R2) of Annual data model for Damanganga reflect that the Linear Regression

(LR) models by ANN display a better performance as compared the Linear Regression (LR) models by least square method.

Results of coefficient of Determination (R2), Mean square error (MSE), and Mean absolute error (MAE) of Annual data

model and as well as Seasonal Data model for Damanganga reflect that the Linear Regression (LR) models display a better

performance as compared to Multilayer perceptron (MLP) model.

The Advantage of LR is that it can be trained much faster than the MLP.

The convergence obtained by training network takes much time in case of Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), while it

converges quickly in case of Linear Regression (LR).

REFERENCES

[1] McCulloch, W. S.; Pitts, E. (1943), "A logical calculus of the ideas imminent in nervous activity", Bulletin of Mathematical

Biophysics: 541544.

[2] Hebb, D.O. (1949), the organization of behavior. New York: Wiley & Sons

[3] Rosenblatt, Frank (1957), The Perceptron--a perceiving and recognizing automaton. Report 85 460-1, Cornell Aeronautical

Laboratory.

[4] Minsky M. L. and Papert S. A. (1969),Perceptrons, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

[5] Widrow and Hoff (1960), Adpative Switching circuits, in 1960 IRE WESCON Convention record, part 4, New York: IRE,

pp. 96-104.

[6] Minsky, M.; S. Papert (1969), An Introduction to Computational Geometry. MIT Press, ISBN 0-262-63022-2.

[7] Rosenblatt (1962), Principles of Neurodynamics. Washington, DC:Spartan Books.

[8] Pal et al. (2002), MLP based forecasting model for Dum station, www.iasri.Res .in/ebook/EB_SMAR/e-book.../3ANN.pdf.network vs linear discriminant analysis in credit ratings forecast: A comparative study of prediction performances,

Review of Accounting and Finance, Volume 5, Issue 3, 2006, pp. 216-227.

[9] Lin and Chen (2005), Application of an artificial neural network to typhoon rainfall forecasting, Hydrological Process, 19,

18251837 (2005) Wiley Inter Science (www.interscience.wiley.com)

451

- 1.Man-challenges in Service Delivery Within the-peter Kiprotich Cheruiyot 123Uploaded byImpact Journals
- Part 5 - Prediction Error MethodsUploaded byFarideh
- TRRL Lab Report 706Uploaded byGkou Dojku
- 37049-023-ino-tacr-01Uploaded bybqdianz
- v081n05p117 South African Mining and Metallurgy JournalUploaded byAndreas Meyer
- Regional Meeting on Hydro-informatics and Developing Knowledge Hub Networks - Presentation Yellow River Flood ForecastUploaded byadbwaterforall
- Gubler 2011 Measurement and Analysis of GSTUploaded byKanghenzonga
- 8Uploaded byRaluca Muresan
- Fitting Linear Regression in SPSS and Output InterpretationUploaded bySerban Zodian
- Stata 3, Linear Regression v3Uploaded byApostolos Davillas
- PEER_stage2_10.1136%2Fbjo.2009.158097Uploaded byGema La Rosa Carbonell
- The Course Outline - Quantitative Foundations 2012to 2013Uploaded byCrystal D. Bleasdell
- Himanshu a 21Uploaded byiceman7264
- Lecture 10 NotesUploaded bymartinhochihang
- Lecture4 Module2 Anova 1Uploaded byApam Benjamin
- Unit II (1)Uploaded bygiridhar
- Cost Accounting.docxUploaded bysilll92
- xlm-xlm0000249Uploaded byotiliaglam
- Chapter 1,2,3 (Rev)Uploaded byMonell Orihuela Isidor
- ecoUploaded byMiki Flapaflap
- Data Driven Decision RegressionUploaded byJen Chang
- JET-OUSL-Vol3-No1-Paper2.pdfUploaded byNiranjan Abeyrathna
- Lecture 16 Statistical Analysis (Cont.)Uploaded byGrace Melissa Choi
- Lecture 10 EconometricsUploaded byvaquero92
- Lecture 14Uploaded byishaq103
- Predictive Relations of Tropical Forest Biomass FrUploaded byNicolas Maldonado
- Lecturer Notes of Unit -3Uploaded byGraba Cada
- 8 1486792440_10-02-2017.pdfUploaded byEditor IJRITCC
- Econometrics_ch2.pptUploaded byMuhammad Hassan Khan
- Quantile Regression Approach to Determine the Indicator of Health StatusUploaded byrobert0rojer

- Oscillating Heat Pipe & Synthesis of Nano Fluid - ReviewUploaded byGRD Journals
- Oscillating Heat Pipe & Synthesis of Nano Fluid - ReviewUploaded byGRD Journals
- A Survey on Routing Protocol for Low-Power Lossy Network (RPL) in IoTUploaded byGRD Journals
- Trends in Virtual ClassroomsUploaded byGRD Journals
- Trends in Virtual ClassroomsUploaded byGRD Journals
- Implementation of Data Mining Algorithms using RUploaded byGRD Journals
- Go Green MarketUploaded byGRD Journals
- Go Green MarketUploaded byGRD Journals
- Barriers and Opportunities in Circular Economy in the Construction Industry in IndiaUploaded byGRD Journals
- Barriers and Opportunities in Circular Economy in the Construction Industry in IndiaUploaded byGRD Journals
- Forest Fire Detection using Zigbee Wireless Sensor NetworksUploaded byGRD Journals
- Investigation on Severity Level for Diabetic Maculopathy based on the Location of LesionsUploaded byGRD Journals
- Impact of Digital Currency in E-commerceUploaded byGRD Journals
- Impact of Digital Currency in E-commerceUploaded byGRD Journals
- Feasibility Study of Cow Dung Ash as a Disinfectant in WaterUploaded byGRD Journals
- Development of IoT based Emergency Rescue Life Hacking Band for Human SafetyUploaded byGRD Journals
- Monitoring and Theft Detection in Utility Lines using IoTUploaded byGRD Journals
- Speech Enhancement using DUET & Weiner Filter TechniqueUploaded byGRD Journals
- GRDCF013073.pdfUploaded byGRD Journals
- Portable Malaria Rapid Diagnostic DeviceUploaded byGRD Journals
- Development of Real Time based Medicine Dispensing System for Elderly PeopleUploaded byGRD Journals
- Multipurpose Electronic wheelchair for indoor navigation (E-WHEELS)Uploaded byGRD Journals
- Enchanced Security ATM Transaction Using Iris, Fingerprint, OTP AuthenticationUploaded byGRD Journals
- Movie Success Prediction using Data MiningUploaded byGRD Journals
- Modelling of Smart Mass Rapid Transport (MRT) Empty Seat LocatorUploaded byGRD Journals
- Hybrid Inverter with Solar Battery ChargingUploaded byGRD Journals
- Emerging Trends in Wireless Charging of Electric VehiclesUploaded byGRD Journals
- Modelling of Future Automatic Trolley System Based on Sensors and Image Processing Guidance for SupermarketUploaded byGRD Journals
- Solar Powered Automatic Cabin Cooling SystemUploaded byGRD Journals
- Energy Efficient Solar Regenerated Desiccant DehumidifierUploaded byGRD Journals

- ps2sem6lmannualnsybUploaded bySadia Zaman
- AC Resistance With a Sinusoidal SupplyUploaded bynavy
- Question Bank CamUploaded bySubhash Kulhari
- 4Uploaded byapi-3833989
- 33685 0218 xcooled head.pdfUploaded byiyan22suryana_827197
- Introduction to Electronic Communications TomasiUploaded byRaymond Cruzin
- ootUploaded byhagrawal
- E405 WrittenUploaded byMeke Cabug-os
- Assignment Questions_Unit I (1)Uploaded byRajavati Nadar
- Borri Modular UPSUploaded byKonikaHossain
- C++ Libmesh libraryUploaded byकुशल भट्टराई
- DbexUser TutorialUploaded byAshwin Dave
- manual-4.5.6Uploaded byPedro Henrique Pereira
- Build Your Own Oracle RAC 10g Release 2 Cluster on Linux and ISCSIUploaded byEDUARDO
- Energy Harvesting From Highway Traffic Through Compressed AirUploaded byTalal Jameel
- 94-00004_Rev_B FSR Integration Guide.pdfUploaded byBondanAsmoro
- Anexa 3 - Domenii StiintificeUploaded byIoana Ioana
- Data Sheet Moc 8103Uploaded byNicolas Gallardo
- AS400 - CommandUploaded bykingnachi
- examplecodeUploaded byapi-390152125
- Williams Form Engineering Corp. - Cement Grout Bonded Conctete AnchorsUploaded bylizhasayang
- US-Quick Operation Guide of DS-9500 NVR(V1.3.1)Uploaded byRicardo Jose Pirela
- Chemistry Solution SQPUploaded bytabizh
- Paint - Wikipedia, The Free EncyclopediaUploaded bydidodido_67
- Diagnostic Exam Review 2Uploaded byFrance Mico Sobrevega
- Appendix 1c Bridge Profiles Allan TrussesUploaded byJosue Lewandowski
- 8178642Uploaded byloancat
- SB18-020-02_Flash Programming Failure Recovery.pdfUploaded byNitsuga Oñesirb Savir
- 20W Output Broadband Amplifier with Automatic Gain Control and Thermal ProtectionUploaded byEditor IJRITCC
- Yamaha Motor Company - Wikipedia, The Free EncyclopediaUploaded byotakmesum