Jade 1

Taylor Jade
Mathew Arndt
1040 Statistics
11 Dec 2016

Skittles Report
Part III

Intro
As a class, we decided to analyze, organize, and test the data from 36 different bags of
2.17 oz. Skittles. In this section, were testing 3 different hypotheses using our previously
assessed data.
A hypothesis test is used to test the significance of a claim. You use the test statistic (for
this report it will be sample proportion or mean) to find the p-value (the probability of achieving
equal or more extreme results), and measure its significance against the alpha (the degree of error
that is allowed). If it is greater than alpha, , you fail to reject the null hypothesis (your initial
hypothesis that there is no change/no difference) because your null hypothesis is still likely. If
your p-value is less than alpha, there is significant evidence to support the claim being made, and
you reject the null hypothesis. (Note: You never accept the null hypothesis, because scientific
testing is done to disprove a hypothesis, not prove one.)

Data
Total
Total
%

395
17.96%

299
13.60
%

648
29.47
%

253
11.51
%

604
27.47
%

2199
100%

Process-Test One
Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that 20% of all Skittles candies are red:

1) Hypothesis

2) Sample

= .05

n = 2199

H: = .20

= 395

H: .20

p-hat = 395/2199 = .1796

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3) Test Statistic
p-hat = .1796
z-score = -2.391568

4) Null Distribution

The p-value is your answer multiplied by two, for the two tails in the test: .016776

5) Decision
p-value <
.016776 < .05
Reject the Null Hypothesis!

6) Conclusion
Evidence suggests that the Skittles of the claimed proportion are likely to be red at

Jade 3
= .05

Process-Test Two
Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that 30% of all Skittles candies are orange:

1) Hypothesis

2) Sample

= .05

n = 2199

H: = .30

= 648

H: .30

p-hat = 68/2199 = .2947

3) Test Statistic
p-hat = .2947
= .0097723054

4) Null Distribution

The p-value is your answer multiplied by two, for the two tails in the test: .587578

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5) Decision
p-value >
.587578 > .05
Fail to Reject the Null Hypothesis!

6) Conclusion
There is not enough evidence to suggest that the proportion of orange Skittles are always
30% at = .05.

Process-Test Three
Use a 0.01 significance level to test the claim that the mean number of candies in a bag of
Skittles is 59:
1) Hypothesis

2) Sample

= .01

= 2199/36 = 61.08333

H: = 59

s= 2.76069

H: 59

n= 36

3) Test Statistic

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4) Null Distribution

The p-value is your answer multiplied by two, for the two tails in the test: .000066

5) Decision
p-value <
.000066 < .01
Reject the Null Hypothesis!

6) Conclusion
There is sufficient evidence to suggest that the mean number of Skittles candies in a bag
has no change at = .01.

Reflection
I am moderately confident of my calculations, however, I have my doubts about the way
theyre set up, and in most particular, the second problem. Difficulties came in setting up the
problems, but also in trying to perform the calculations without converting them to z-scores as
weve most recently studied. I didnt want to lose the ability to solve the problems the other way,
so I attempted one of the non-t-score problems that way, but I ended up using z-scores to check
my work. They matched.
The first step was to extract the information from the data we gathered. After that, it was
organizing it and categorizing it so that it would be easier to solve. We needed to decide whether
it was normal or a students T, by checking if they were normal, if they had a population standard
deviation, if they were mean or proportion statistics. There was choosing the correct formulas
and plugging them into the right calculations, and making sure we had the correct tails of the null
distribution. There was checking to see if they made senseand for me, not doubting the data
and answers that I got like I did on my last exam.
In statistics, a Type I Error is a false positive, its saying that there is a change when no
change has occurred. A Type II Error is the opposite, its saying theres no change when there is a
change. Because they are statistics (educated guesses about the population parameters), there is
always room for error. So for example, just because I said at a p-value of .000066 it is highly
likely there is no change from the mean, it could be a Type II Errorthere could be change when
Im saying there wont be. Same goes for the p-value of .016776 against = .05. On the other
hand, if I was incorrect on number two, the error would be Type I.