MINT

25 years of economic reforms

The decades prior to 1991 may have been years of slow growth, but it is equally true that
state-led growth did create capacities

This week marks the 25th anniversary of the historic budget speech by Manmohan Singh,
finance minister in 1991, which heralded economic reforms. While many would argue that
the process of economic reforms and opening up of the economy had started earlier, in the
1980s, the fact remains that the events that unfolded after 1991 did result in a clear shift in
the ideology behind Indian economic policy, from a dirigisme regime to a market-friendly
regime. It is then appropriate to evaluate the successes and failures of the past 25 years, a
period which has seen unprecedented growth as well as poverty reduction.
While there is a consensus that the economy has done better after 1991 than in the earlier
period according to standard metrics of economic performance, there are concerns about the
performance of the economy on various social indicators. These appear to be worse, given the
high growth rate that the economy has achieved in the past decade.
But the real issues are not just the successes and failures of reforms but also the sustainability
of the growth path that the economy has followed since 1991. The recent slowdown in
economic growth may just be temporary but there are serious concerns that raise questions
about the sustainability of the reforms as well as the future of economic reforms.
First among these is the issue of inequality, which by all measures has continued to rise since
1991. The rise in economic inequality has been consistent and has been seen on measures of
consumption expenditure as well as on incomes. Some of the inequality may not be harmful
if it is seen as just reward for skills or entrepreneurship.
Unfortunately, on both these counts concerns remain. While wages of highly skilled
employees have shown a secular upward trend, a large majority of workers, particularly in the
unorganized sector, havent seen wages rise commensurately in real terms. Along with a trend
towards casualization and contractualization, there has been a worsening of employment
quality and lack of social security even for those employed in the organized sector.
But a far more serious issue is the rise of crony capitalism. If the purpose of economic
reforms was to get rid of the licence-permit raj, the reforms have failed to create a level
playing field with crony capitalism, not just obvious in the case of natural resources such as
petroleum, coal, iron and spectrum, but also among industries which have seen the opening
up of markets and deregulation. The fact that the banking and finance sector, which was
among the first to be opened up, is struggling with non-performing assets is a clear reminder
of the perils of unregulated liberalization and crony capitalism.

While economic inequality has certainly been a hindrance for the majority of the poor to
benefit from the fruits of economic reforms, the failure of the government to deal with
structural inequality has also created a class of marginalized and vulnerable people.
These structural inequalities embedded in class, caste, gender and religion have not only
grown after reforms, attempts at privatizing public services such as health and education have
also led to further marginalization of the disadvantaged groups from the mainstream. The low
improvement in social indicators has also been accompanied by growing distance between
the Scheduled Castes/Scheduled Tribes/minorities versus the rest. The net result of the
accentuation of the trend of rising inequality has been social unrest across social categories
and across states.
However, the biggest challenge for the economy ever since the economic reforms were
initiated has been the lack of employment creation. The fact that the workforce structure
hasnt seen much change from 1991 is a clear reflection of the lopsided nature of economic
growth.
The agricultural sector continues to remain the largest employer with the absolute number of
workers declining only recently. But the non-farm sector, which has been the engine of
growth, has failed to absorb either those displaced by the agricultural sector or the new
entrants to the labour force. These new entrants to the labour force are not just better educated
and skilled than their counterparts in agriculture, but also more aspirational.
The lack of employment opportunities for a large majority is now reflected in social unrest
such as the clamour for reservation by certain groups such as the Patidars, Marathas and the
Jats. The deterioration of employment quality has also created a class of workers who are
employed but remain vulnerable.
Twenty-five years since the reforms were initiated, it is not just an opportunity to evaluate
what has happened in the past 25 years but also reassess the challenges of economic growth
and poverty reduction in the next 25 years.
The decades prior to 1991 may have been years of slow growth, but it is equally true that
state-led growth did create capacities which enabled the economic reforms to reap the
benefits of liberalization. At a time when the economy is still vulnerable to rainfall variation
despite decades of agricultural growth, the issue of economic revival is not just about opening
up the economy and liberalizing the trade environment.
The fundamental issues of inequality, lack of social progress and inability of the economy to
generate jobs require a strategic response if the process of reforms and growth has to
continue. It is time for the next generation of reformsthose that deal with the structural
bottlenecks to growthrather than more of the same.
Himanshu is an associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University and visiting fellow at
Centre de Sciences Humaines, New Delhi.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------http://www.insightsonindia.com/2016/08/01/big-picture-25-years-economic-liberalization/

The Big Picture- 25 Years of Economic Liberalization: Where are We?

In the recent past, India has seen a rapid transformation in her economy yielding a different
perspective altogether for the country from rest of the world. The economic reforms of 1991
(liberalization, privatization and globalization) not only affected our economy but also
affected the way we live dramatically.
There were various short and long term reasons behind these reforms like:
1.
Bad fiscal situation of India
2.
Foreign obligations to be fulfilled
3.
Stagnant growth of employment
4.
Creation of more wealth, job and reduction of inequality
The economic reform policy aims towards greater freedom for doing business outside
government control, reducing the role of public sector while giving more space to private
sector and doing away with MRTP/FERA act.It also advocated foreign investment policies to
attract foreign investment in the country.
On the flip side, we need to see that the economic reforms have proved to be beneficial only
for a few sectors like finance, trade, investment etc. Other sectors didnt reap much benefit
from the reforms like manufacturing. Service sector grew at a much faster pace in
comparison to manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
There is a missing link in the Indian economy where the services sector grew faster than the
manufacturing sector which ideally should have been the other way round. The sector
contributing the least to the GDP has maximum dependence on it (agriculture) and the sector
contributing most to the GDP depends least on it (services). As an outcome, the gap of
inequality is increasing further. The benefits of the reforms have not percolated to agricultural
sector due to which we find disguised unemployment in this sector.
What needs to be done?
1.
Creation of opportunities for skill development/formation of the unemployed (Skill
India, Make in India) and putting more focus on unorganized sector of the economy.
2.
Focus needs to be shifted towards social sector like irrigation, rural electrification,
better communication facilities in villages, education (Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan, Mid-day
meal Scheme) and health (NRHM, National Sanitation Campaign).
3.
Employment opportunities for the masses (MNREGA) providing livelihood, means of
income, increasing purchasing power to reduce absolute poverty levels.
4.
Increase agro-based industries in the country.
5.
Labour reforms and increase in their wages as the labour laws were framed much
before independence and todays scenario has changed drastically.
Putting focus on one side of the coin only cannot be a complete parameter of measuring
success of these reforms. In our zeal and enthusiasm of reaping benefits from these economic
reforms, we need to keep in mind that still there is a part of population which is living under
abject poverty in the country. We need to bring them in sync and further integrate them with
these reforms. This is the real challenge that needs to be addressed today on a priority basis.
-------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WIKIPEDIA
Economic liberalisation in India
The economic liberalisation in India refers to the economic liberalisation, initiated in 1991,
of the country's economic policies, with the goal of making the economy more marketoriented and expanding the role of private and foreign investment. Specific changes include a
reduction in import tariffs, deregulation of markets, reduction of taxes, and greater foreign
investment. Liberalisation has been credited by its proponents for the high economic growth
recorded by the country in the 1990s and 2000s. Its opponents have blamed it for increased
poverty, inequality and economic degradation. The overall direction of liberalisation has since
remained the same, irrespective of the ruling party, although no party has yet solved a variety
of politically difficult issues, such as liberalising labour laws and reducing agricultural
subsidies.[1] There exists a lively debate in India as to what made the economic reforms
sustainable.[2]
Indian government coalitions have been advised to continue liberalisation. Before 2015 India
grew at slower pace than China which has been liberalising its economy since 1978.[3]But in
year 2015 India outpaced china in terms of GDP growth rate.[4] The McKinsey
Quarterly states that removing main obstacles "would free India's economy to grow as fast as
China's, at 10% a year".[5]
There has been significant debate, however, around liberalisation as an inclusive economic
growth strategy. Since 1992, income inequality has deepened in India with consumption
among the poorest staying stable while the wealthiest generate consumption growth.[6] As
India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate became lowest in 2012-13 over a decade,
growing merely at 5.1%,[7] more criticism of India's economic reforms surfaced, as it
apparently failed to address employment growth, nutritional values in terms of food intake in
calories, and also exports growth - and thereby leading to a worsening level of current
account deficit compared to the prior to the reform period.[8] But then in FY 2013-14 the
growth rebounded to 6.9% and then in 2014-15 it rose to 7.3% as a result of the reforms put
by the New Government which led to the economy becoming healthy again and the current
account deficit coming in control. Growth reached 7.5% in the Jan-Mar quarter of 2015
before slowing to 7.0% in Apr-Jun quarter.
Pre-liberalisation policies[edit]
Part of a series on the
History of modern India

Pre-independence
Independence movement
Rebellion / Mutiny / First
War of Independence

18571858

British Raj

18581947

Partition

1947
Post-independence

Political integration

19471949

Non-Aligned Movement 1953present

States Reorganisation
Act

1956

Indo-Pakistani War

1965

Green Revolution

1970s

Indo-Pakistani War

1971

Emergency

19751977

1990s
Economic liberalisation
See also

History of India
History of South Asia
India portal

e
Further information: Economic history of India and Licence Raj
Indian economic policy after independence was influenced by the colonial experience (which
was seen by Indian leaders as exploitative in nature) and by those leaders' exposure to Fabian
socialism. Policy tended towards protectionism, with a strong emphasis on import
substitution, industrialisation under state monitoring, state intervention at the micro level in
all businesses especially in labour and financial markets, a large public sector, business
regulation, and central planning.[9] Five-Year Plans of India resembled central planning in
the Soviet Union. Steel, mining, machine tools, water, telecommunications, insurance, and
electrical plants, among other industries, were effectively nationalised in the mid-1950s.
[10]
Elaborate licences, regulations and the accompanying red tape, commonly referred to
as Licence Raj, were required to set up business in India between 1947 and 1990.[11]
Before the process of reform began in 1991, the government attempted to close the Indian
economy to the outside world. The Indian currency, the rupee, was inconvertible and high
tariffs and import licensing prevented foreign goods reaching the market. India also operated
a system of central planning for the economy, in which firms required licences to invest and
develop. The labyrinthine bureaucracy often led to absurd restrictionsup to 80 agencies had
to be satisfied before a firm could be granted a licence to produce and the state would decide
what was produced, how much, at what price and what sources of capital were used. The
government also prevented firms from laying off workers or closing factories. The central
pillar of the policy was import substitution, the belief that India needed to rely on internal
markets for development, not international tradea belief generated by a mixture of
socialism and the experience of colonial exploitation. Planning and the state, rather than
markets, would determine how much investment was needed in which sectors.
BBC[12]
Pre-1991 liberalisation attempts[edit]
Attempts were made to liberalise the economy in 1966 and 1985. The first attempt was
reversed in 1967. Thereafter, a stronger version of socialism was adopted. The second major
attempt was in 1985 by prime minister Rajiv Gandhi. The process came to a halt in 1987,
though 1967 style reversal did not take place.[13]
In the 80s, the government led by Rajiv Gandhi started light reforms. The government
slightly reduced Licence Raj and also promoted the growth of the telecommunications and
software industries.[14]
The Chandra Shekhar Singh government (19901991) took several significant steps towards
the much needed reforms and laid its foundation.[15]

Impact[edit]

The low annual growth rate of the economy of India before 1980, which stagnated
around 3.5% from 1950s to 1980s, while per capita income averaged 1.3%.[16] At the
same time, Pakistan grew by 5%, Indonesia by 9%, Thailand by 9%, South Korea by
10% and Taiwan by 12%.[17]

Only four or five licences would be given for steel, electrical power and
communications. Licence owners built up huge powerful empires.[12]

A huge private sector emerged. State-owned enterprises made large losses.[12]

Income Tax Department and Customs Department became efficient in checking tax
evasion.[citation needed]
Infrastructure investment was poor because of the public sector monopoly.[12]
Licence Raj established the "irresponsible, self-perpetuating bureaucracy that still
exists throughout much of the country"[18] and corruption flourished under this system.[19]

The fruits of liberalisation reached their peak in 2006, when India recorded its highest GDP
growth rate of 9.6%.[20] With this, India became the second fastest growing major economy in
the world, next only to China.[19] The growth rate has slowed significantly in the first half of
2012.[21] An Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report states
that the average growth rate 7.5% will double the average income in a decade, and more
reforms would speed up the pace.[22] The economy then rebounded to 7.3% growth in 201415.
First Round of Reforms (19911996)[edit]

The former prime minister P V Narasimha Rao, who spearheaded economic liberalisation
policies in the early 1990s. Rao was often referred to as Chanakya for his ability to steer
tough economic and political legislation through the parliament at a time when he headed
a minority government.[23][24]

Crisis[edit]
Main article: 1991 India economic crisis
By 1991, India still had a fixed exchange rate system, where the rupee was pegged to the
value of a basket of currencies of major trading partners. India started having balance of
payments problems since 1985, and by the end of 1990, the state of India was in a
serious economic crisis. The government was close to default,[25][26] its central bank had
refused new credit and foreign exchange reserves had reduced to the point that India could
barely finance three weeks worth of imports. It had to pledge 20 tonnes of gold to Union
Bank of Switzerland and 47 tonnes to Bank of England as part of a bailout deal with the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). Most of the economic reforms were forced upon India as
a part of the IMF bailout.[27]
A Balance of Payments crisis in 1991 pushed the country to near bankruptcy. In return for an
IMF bailout, gold was transferred to London as collateral, the rupee devalued and economic
reforms were forced upon India. That low point was the catalyst required to transform the
economy through badly needed reforms to unshackle the economy. Controls started to be
dismantled, tariffs, duties and taxes progressively lowered, state monopolies broken, the
economy was opened to trade and investment, private sector enterprise and competition were
encouraged and globalisation was slowly embraced. The reforms process continues today and
is accepted by all political parties, but the speed is often held hostage by coalition politics and
vested interests.
India Report, Astaire Research[19]
Economic Liberalisation of 1991[edit]
In response, Prime Minister Narasimha Rao, along with his finance minister Manmohan
Singh, initiated the economic liberalisation of 1991. The reforms did away with the Licence
Raj, reduced tariffs and interest rates and ended many public monopolies, allowing automatic
approval of foreign direct investment in many sectors.[28] Since then, the overall thrust of
liberalisation has remained the same, although no government has tried to take on powerful
lobbies such as trade unions and farmers, on contentious issues such as reforming labour laws
and reducing agricultural subsidies.[29] By the turn of the 21st century, India had progressed
towards a free-market economy, with a substantial reduction in state control of the economy
and increased financial liberalisation.[30] This has been accompanied by increases in life
expectancy, literacy rates and food security, although urban residents have benefited more
than rural residents.[31]
Later reforms[edit]
This list is incomplete; you can help by expanding it.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Atal Bihari Vajpayee administration surprised many
by continuing reforms, when it was at the helm of affairs of India for six years, from
1998-99 and from 1999-2004.[32]

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance Coalition began privatising underperforming government owned business including hotels, VSNL, Maruti Suzuki, and
airports, and began reduction of taxes, an overall fiscal policy aimed at reducing deficits
and debts and increased initiatives for public works.

The United Front government attempted a progressive budget that encouraged

reforms, but the 1997 Asian financial crisis and political instability created economic
stagnation.

Towards the end of 2011, the Congress-led UPA-2 Coalition Government initiated the
introduction of 51% Foreign Direct Investment in retail sector. But due to pressure from
fellow coalition parties and the opposition, the decision was rolled back. However, it was
approved in December 2012.[33]

In the early months of 2015, the second BJP-led NDA Government under Narendra
Modi further opened up the insurance sector by allowing up to 49% FDI. This came
seven years after the previous government attempted and failed to push through the same
reforms and 16 years after the sector was first opened to foreign investors up to 26%
under the first BJP-led NDA Government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee's administration.[34]

The second BJP-led NDA Government also opened up the coal industry through the
passing of the Coal Mines (Special Provisions) Bill of 2015. It effectively ended the
Indian central government's monopoly over the mining of coal, which existed since
nationalization in 1973 through socialist controls. It has opened up the path for private,
foreign investments in the sector, since Indian arms of foreign companies are entitled to
bid for coal blocks and licences, as well as for commercial mining of coal. This could
result in billions of dollars investments by domestic and foreign miners. The move is also
beneficial to the state-owned Coal India Limited, which may now get the elbow room to
bring in some much needed technology and best practices, while opening up prospects of
a better future for millions of mine workers.[35]

In the 2016 budget session of Parliament, the Narendra Modi led BJP Government
pushed through the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. The Code creates time-bound
processes for insolvency resolution of companies and individuals. These processes will
be completed within 180 days. If insolvency cannot be resolved, the assets of the
borrowers may be sold to repay creditors. This law drastically eases the process of doing
business, according to experts and is considered by many to be the second most important
reform in India since 1991 next to the proposed GST.[36]

The impact of these reforms may be gauged from the fact that total foreign investment
(including foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and investment raised
on international capital markets) in India grew from a minuscule US$132 million in 199192
to $5.3 billion in 199596.[38]
Annual growth in GDP per capita has accelerated from just 1 per cent in the three decades
after Independence to 7 per cent currently, a rate of growth that will double average income
in a decade.... In service sectors where government regulation has been eased significantly or
is less burdensomesuch as communications, insurance, asset management and information

technologyoutput has grown rapidly, with exports of information technology enabled

services particularly strong. In those infrastructure sectors which have been opened to
competition, such as telecoms and civil aviation, the private sector has proven to be
extremely effective and growth has been phenomenal.
OECD[22]
Election of AB Vajpayee as Prime Minister of India in 1998 and his agenda was a welcome
change. His prescription to speed up economic progress included solution of all outstanding
problems with the West (Cold War related) and then opening gates for FDI investment. In
three years, the West was developing a bit of a fascination to India's brainpower, powered by
IT and BPO. By 2004, the West would consider investment in India, should the conditions
permit. By the end of Vajpayee's term as prime minister, a framework for the foreign
investment had been established. The new incoming government of Dr. Manmohan Singh in
2004 further strengthened the required infrastructure to welcome the FDI.
Today, fascination with India is translating into active consideration of India as a destination
for FDI. The A T Kearney study put India second most likely destination for FDI in 2005
behind China. It has displaced US to the third position. This is a great leap forward. India was
at the 15th position, only a few years back. To quote the A T Kearney Study, "India's strong
performance among manufacturing and telecom & utility firms was driven largely by their
desire to make productivity-enhancing investments in IT, business process outsourcing,
research and development, and knowledge management activities".
Challenges to further reforms[edit]
For 2010, India was ranked 124th among 179 countries in Index of Economic Freedom World
Rankings, which is an improvement from the preceding year.

Slow growth of the agricultural sector, where half of Indians earn most of their
income[39]

Highly restrictive and complex labour laws.[22][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47]

High inflation[39]

High poverty[39]

Corruption and graft[39]

Lack of political consensus and will[39][48]

OECD summarised the key reforms that are needed:

In labour markets, employment growth has been concentrated in firms that operate in sectors
not covered by India's highly restrictive labour laws. In the formal sector, where these labour

laws apply, employment has been falling and firms are becoming more capital
intensive despite abundant low-cost labour. Labour market reform is essential to achieve a
broader-based development and provide sufficient and higher productivity jobs for the
growing labour force. In product markets, inefficient government procedures, particularly in
some of the states, acts as a barrier to entrepreneurship and need to be improved. Public
companies are generally less productive than private firms and the privatisation programme
should be revitalised. A number of barriers to competition in financial markets and some of
the infrastructure sectors, which are other constraints on growth, also need to be addressed.
The indirect tax system needs to be simplified to create a true national market, while for
direct taxes, the taxable base should be broadened and rates lowered. Public expenditure
should be re-oriented towards infrastructure investment by reducing subsidies. Furthermore,
social policies should be improved to better reach the poor andgiven the importance of
human capitalthe education system also needs to be made more efficient.
OECD[22]
Though recently labour law reforms have been enacted at the state level[49][50][51][52]
Reforms at the state level[edit]
See also: Economic disparities in India
According to an OECD survey of the Indian economy [22] states that had more liberal
regulatory regimes had better economic performance. The survey also concluded that were
complementary measures for better delivery of infrastructure, education and basic services
implemented, they would boost employment creation and poverty reduction.
25 years of reforms: PV Narasimha Rao, the man of that moment
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/53308599.cms?
utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Manmohan Singh's 1991 Budget: the day that changed India forever

Today, July 24, 2016, marks 25 years of liberalisation. The economic reforms kickstarted in 1991 brought about expansion of the services sector helped largely by a
liberalised investment and trade regime. They also increased consumer choices and
reduced poverty significantly.
A look at our Editorial published on July 25, 1991:
"In the circumstances, the broad philosophy that Dr. Manmohan Singh outlined was
that large scale fiscal adjustment was needed but the poor should be protected from

the burden of adjustment. Few Finance Ministers carry their announced philosophy
through fully, but the latest budget is one without any major philosophical
contradiction. The very poor have been spared and even given marginal reliefs as in
the case of the cut in the price of kerosene. The burden is primarily on the corporate
sector and on the rich and the middle class. For one thing, the budget marks a major
shift in revenue raising from indirect to direct taxes and should gladden the
advocates of equity." >Continue reading...

Twenty five years ago this day

Dr. Manmohan Singh entering Parliament in New Delhi with the Budget documents
in 1991. Photo: Shanker Chakravarthy/ The Hindu Archives

MP Jairam Ramesh writes about the 1991 Budget and "how Dr. Manmohan Singh,
the hedgehog, and Prime Minister Narasimha Rao, the fox, rescued India at its
darkest moment."
"June 21 to July 24, 1991 witnessed an intellectual revolution, but it was an
evolutionary one both the crisis and the response were some years in the making.
To borrow an analogy from the great historian of ideas, Isaiah Berlin, if Dr. Singh
was the hedgehog who knew only one big thing and that is economic reforms, Rao
was the crafty and cunning fox who knew many things. It was this unusual
jugalbandi that rescued India at its darkest moment when India could well have
mirrored Greece in 2015. There are many lessons to be drawn from what the duo
did and more importantly how they did it, lessons that have great contemporary
relevance as well." >Continue reading...
Tracking progress in numbers

High-rises and slum dwellings jostling for space in Mumbai. Photo: Prashant
Nakwe
A look at some the key parameters of growth and tracking the country's journey in
the last 25 years based on nine key numbers -- sectoral share of GDP, sectoral
growth rates, length of roads, number of registered companies, FDI inflows, foreign
exchange reserves, telecom subscriber base, number of educational institutions and
poverty rate.
The economic reforms kick-started in 1991 brought about expansion of the services
sector helped largely by a liberalised investment and trade regime. They also
increased consumer choices, and reduced poverty significantly.
The share of services in GDP has increased 20 percentage points since 1991,
reflecting a decisive change in the nature of India's economic output.

Average growth rate has been a constant since 1991 across sectors, but agriculture has seen a
deceleration.
Roads have boosted connectivity and acted as a multiplier.
Entrepreneurship has surged post reforms
The dismantling of barriers resulted in a surge in FDI inflows till the global
financial crisis
Foreign exchange reserves, which plummeted in 1991, burgeoned year on year since
then.
Telecom Subscriber growth rate soared in the mid-1990s, with the overall base
crossing a billion in 2015-16.
Number of colleges and universities increased by 537% in 25 years since 1991 after
adding about 5,000 institutions in 40 years.
The Tendulkar committee estimated a drop in poverty rate to 21.9% in 2011-12.