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ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN INDIA : A GERMI WHITE PAPER

ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN INDIA : A GERMI WHITE PAPER

ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN INDIA : A GERMI WHITE PAPER

We have a responsibility to
protect the rights of
generations, of all species,
that cannot speak for
themselves today. The
global climate change
requires that we ask no less
of our leaders, or
ourselves.
Wangari Maathai

In 2010, National Research Council of the U.S. concluded that

climate change is occurring, is very likely caused by human
activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of
human and natural systems. But it is also true that many of
us have realized the importance of human role in preventing
it. Clean and green energy are todays talk-of-the-day. The
world has already shown the importance of renewable
energy as an inevitable measure to help prevent the effects
of global warming. The world (in 2013) added more capacity
for renewable power (143 GW) than coal, natural gas and oil
combined (141 GW) 1. As the energy generation is shifting
towards renewables a similar need exists in the utilization of
energy. In the transportation sector, the importance of
alternative fuel vehicles is acknowledged as an alternative to
the petrol and diesel powered vehicles that emit the Green
House Gases (GHG). But the less matured technology of
alternative fuel vehicles require more investment & new
infrastructure than conventional vehicles to make them selfsustaining in the market. Developing countries like India
need to allocate funds strategically if they are to develop a
sustainable market for electric vehicles (EV).
The primary focus of this report is
1. To understand the financial viability of an EV in India
compared vis--vis with an Internal Combustion Engine
Vehicle (ICEV) from the same segment.
2. To see if the recent subsidy disbursed by the Government
under the Faster Adoption & Manufacturing of Electric (&
hybrid) vehicles in India (FAME) scheme could accelerate
the market or not.
3. To suggest ways in which both the government and the EV
manufacturers should recalibrate themselves to address and
perhaps create the market in India.
In January 2013, the Prime Minister of India launched the
National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2020 with
a view - to enhance national energy security, mitigate
adverse environmental impacts from road transport vehicles
and boost domestic manufacturing capabilities for electric
vehicles. Chapter 1 describes the policy framework and

Fossil fuels just lost the race against renewables, Bloomberg Business, http://goo.gl/xJmRfT

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subsidies for EVs in India and underlines the necessity for

stability in policy and fiscal incentives for the EV market .
The first attempt at incentivizing the EV market was made
back in 2010 when the Ministry of New & Renewable Energy
(MNRE) announced a subsidy scheme. But how has the
market reacted to the subsidy since then? Where does India
stand globally in terms of EV deployment, incentivizing EVs
and building infrastructure for EVs? Chapter 2 describes the
market outlook globally and nationally. Most importantly it
infers that India is nowhere close to deploying EVs at a scale
compared to China or the U.S.
Chapter 3 evaluates the financial viability of EVs (4wheelers) in India. The comparison of an EV vis--vis with
an ICEV from the same segment, shows that the subsidy
under the FAME scheme is just not enough to incentivize
users to switch to EVs as their primary car.

i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.

Chapter 4 recommends to the Indian Government and the EV

industry, the following; so as to adhere to the NEMMP
targets:
There must be long-term clarity on policy for electric
vehicles.
More subsidy is essential, until the EV market becomes selfsustaining.
Battery swap program may turn the markets.
Electric-car sharing is definitely worth looking into.
Electric buses may well be suited for urban areas.
Create a performance-oriented market.

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The twentieth century has been the era of energy from nonrenewables mainly because of the ease of use, availability
and the low cost of fossil fuels. However the twenty first
century is witnessing a paradigm shift in energy generation 2
and consumption as a consequence of the negative impact of
fossil fuels on the environment and concerns over climate
change. The shift is also recognized in the global automotive
industry where alternative fuel technologies and battery
electric vehicles (BEVs) are attracting heavy investments 3.
In India, the transportation sector alone accounts for about
one-third of the total crude oil consumption and the road
transportation accounts for more than 80% of this
consumption. It is expected that from 2006 to 2030, three
quarters of the projected increase in oil demand will come
from transportation4. In addition, the World Energy Outlook,
2015 states that fossil fuel based transportation is the
second largest source of CO2 emissions globally after power
generation. This emphasizes the need for alternative cleaner
fuels including electric mobility, especially in India which is
one of the largest automotive markets in the world with a
total of more than 141 million5 user vehicles registered (till
2011).
The increasing fuel consumption increases the demand for
crude oil production. However, the domestic crude oil
production is rather sluggish and the gap between the
domestic production and consumption is widening. It is
expected that by 2020, India will import 92% of all its
consumed crude oil6. This poses a serious challenge to
Indias energy (fuel) security. Therefore urgent measures
need to be taken to decrease the countrys dependence on
fossil fuel. Clearly, electric mobility can help in lowering this
oil deficit where India needs to bring forward the

Fossil fuels just lost the race against renewables, Bloomberg Business, http://goo.gl/xJmRfT
Global EV Outlook 2015, http://goo.gl/M0oH54
4 National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020, http://goo.gl/yTejZf
5 Total number of registered user vehicles in India, https://goo.gl/E6HqRY
6 Refer footnote 4
2
3

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Government-Industry partnerships to foster sustainable

solutions in mobility especially, electric mobility.

Background
The NEMMP 2020 is the National Mission that provides the
vision and the roadmap for the faster adoption of xEVs (full
range of hybrid and electric vehicle) and their manufacturing
in the country.
Prior to the NEMMPs release, Ministry of New and
Renewable Energy (MNRE) offered an incentive scheme to
push sales of EVs in India. The scheme was effective from
November 11, 2010 to March 31, 2012 and had a budget
outlay of INR 95 crore (USD 14.6 million7). Although the
incentives were low, the EV market especially in the twowheeler segment witnessed a significant uptake. But
termination of the scheme resulted in steep downfall of the
EV market. After two months of its termination, close to 33%
of dealers reverted to their earlier business and more than
20% closed their shutters 8. A similar trend was observed in
the sales of Indias only EV car manufacturer Mahindra
Reva; number of manufactured units fell by 40% after the
termination of subsidy (see figure 1). This underlines the
need for stability in policy and fiscal incentives if the
government wants to establish a vibrant EV market in India.
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

40%

2011-12

2012-13

(during the subsidy)

(after the termination of subsidy)

Figure 1: Number of units manufactured by Mahindra Reva9

1 USD = 65 INR assumed for the entire report

Electric Vehicles sales drop after subsidy scheme ends, The Economic Times, http://goo.gl/ImlSg5
9 Sustainability Review 2013-14, Mahindra Sustainability Report 2013-14, http://goo.gl/wK8wXl
7
8

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Goals
The NEMMP10 targets 6-7 million EVs on road by 2020 of
which 4-5 million are expected to be two wheelers.
According to the NEMMP, successful implementation of the
NEMMP will result in fossil fuel savings of 2.2 2.5 million
tonnes by 2020. This directly corresponds to monetary
saving of INR 30,000 crores (USD 4.61 billion). This will
result in a reduction of 1.3% - 1.5% of CO2 emissions.
According to the NEMMP, there will be a creation of more
than 180,000 jobs that will lead to the economic growth and
a cleaner future.

Incentives/ Support
While the NEMMP envisages investing around INR 22,000
crores (USD 3.38 billion) by a Government-Industry
partnership, the Government shall invest close to INR 14,000
crores (USD 2.15 billion) and the automakers shall invest
close to INR 8,000 crores (USD 1.23 billion). The complete
utilization of those INR 22,000 crores will play a pivotal role
in achieving the target.
The NEMMP was announced in 2013 for increasing the
penetration of EVs in the market and until recently, India has
not witnessed any fund allocations. In April 2015, Union
minister of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises Anant
Geete launched a scheme for Faster Adoption and
Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles in India (also
known as FAME11).
The first phase of the scheme (2015-17) has an outlay of INR
795 crores (USD 122.3 million) of which INR 260 crores
(USD 40 million) is dedicated for the first fiscal year (201516). Although the General Budget, 2015-16 of India has

10
11

National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020, http://goo.gl/v0l4hm

Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric (& hybrid) vehicles in India, http://goo.gl/xjDCH8

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actually passed an initial outlay of only INR 75 crores (USD

11.5 million) with the release of FAME scheme 12.

Total
260

70

155

Technology Platform

Demand Incentive

10
Charging Infrastructure

20

Pilot Projects

IEC Operations

Figure 2: Allocation of FAME scheme (2015-16) in INR crore

12

General Budget, 2015-16, India, http://goo.gl/occK13

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Globally, the market share of EVs is negligible as compared

to that of the ICEVs (only 0.08 %)13. The Achilles heel of EV
technology is the battery technology, which is the main
reason for its high cost. But battery costs have fallen by 40%
during 2010 to 2012 14. This declining price of battery and a
significant spending by Governments across the world (USD
16 billion during 2008-2014) has led to the significant
uptake of EVs in last 5 years (2010-2014). Figure 3 shows
the global (EVI countries) EV sales during 2010-2014.

Figure 3: Global EV sales [source: Global EV Outlook 2015] 15

Global EV Outlook 2015, http://goo.gl/M0oH54

40% drop in EV Battery Prices from 2010 to 2012, CleanTechnica, http://goo.gl/pgjXr7
15 BEV and PHEV respectively stands for Battery Electric Vehicle and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle.
13
14

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For the EVI (Electric Vehicles Initiative) member countries,

their contribution in EV markets share or stocks is shown
below.
China
12.55%

Japan
16.32%

Rest of World
29.24%

India
0.41%

United States
41.49%

Figure 4: Global EV share (%)16

48

743

2,689

2,799

3,536

6,990

7,584

10,778

21,425

24,419

30,912

40,887

43,762

In the pie of Rest of World, there are a total of 13 countries,

including India. Their EV Stocks are shown below.

Figure 5: Number of EV stocks16

Clearly, India is far behind in deploying the EVs and at this

rate, it cannot meet with the targets of NEMMP. Therefore, the
key question is Why is the market for EV in India not taking
off?

16

Global EV Outlook 2015, http://goo.gl/M0oH54

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The following table shows the manufacturers that are

members in Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles
(SMEV)17:
Manufacturer

2W18

3W

4W

Components

Mahindra Reva
Lohia Auto Industries

Ampere Vehicles Pvt. Ltd.

Electrotherm

Hero Electric

Avon Cycles

Ajanta Manufacturing Division (e-bike division)

Sehgal Elmoto Ltd.

Tunwal Electronics

Fusion Power System

U.L. India Pvt. Ltd.

The NEMMP 2020 envisions creating a sustainable EV

market for both consumers & manufacturers. But one of the
main problems in the Indian EV car market is the presence
of only one manufacturer. This creates a lack of competition
in the market. With that said, the only manufacturer
(Mahindra Reva) is set to compete in the highly cost
competitive market of ICEVs. Eventually the only electric car
with a low range as compared to an ICEV, fails to deliver
owing to its high capital cost. Hence, rejection of EV over
ICEV due to its high price from a consumers point of view
and the lack of a sizeable market size from the
manufacturers point of view is a problem similar to that of
the economics classical problem of two-sided market.
There are two possible solutions to this problem:
1. To create a long-term sustainable policy and incentive
framework that creates a market for EVs.

17
18

Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicle (SMEV), http://goo.gl/EcKdKy

2W, 3W & 4W respectively means 2-wheelers, 3-wheelers & 4-wheelers

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2. Creating an aspirational product that can compete with the

ICEVs, self-sustainingly in the automotive market.
Currently what Mahindra Reva does is focuses on being more
economical (even though it fails to do so see chapter 3
Financial Viability Analysis). It neither addresses the
consumers who are looking for Value for Money nor the
consumers who are looking for performance. Therefore, the
only people who currently are Mahindras customers, are
people with the consciousness of either being
environmental friendly or having cool technology.
Mahindra is positioning the car as an affordable EV but the
stigma of driving such a car is a barrier for customers. While,
Indias EV sector has complete focus on being economical,
the rest of the world has focused on both economic viability
(e.g. Nissans Leaf) and expensive but performance-driven
vehicles (e.g. Tesla motors).
Figure 6 shows the value for money (as in range,
performance, customer satisfaction, etc.) that consumers get
for the price they pay for their car.

Figure 619

The blue colored zone signifies the current market of ICEVs; right from the ultra-compact cars to
luxury & sports cars
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Mahindra Reva by its classification, competes with the small

segment cars and is undervalued and overpriced for the
same zone. What Indian manufactures should do, is target
the Niche Zone where they can deliver high value for money
to their customers. Even though targeting this zone may
seem as a desultory idea, it will create an impact on
improving EVs perspective in the country. Along with this,
suitable policy interventions and demonstration projects can
always help in developing markets for small and midsegment cars.
With regards to the subsidies, the EV market in India has
done well since the release of FAME subsidy. Compared to
last year, there is a 25% increase in the sales of electric
vehicles in the first quarter of 2015; although the total
number of sales is just about 5,00020. Despite the FAME
scheme, sales are not in line to meet NEMMP targets. The key
question therefore is, why hasnt the recent subsidy on EVs

kick-started the market?

20

Sales of Electric Vehicle show impressive growth: SMEV, DNA India, http://goo.gl/ujdu6R

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We have already seen how well the EVs have been

performing globally. But what are the strategies that have
been used to create the EV market across the globe? On the
whole, the percentage share of investments for different
domains like Fiscal Incentives, Infrastructure, Research
Development & Demonstration (RD & D) is shown in Figure
7 and Figure 8.

Fiscal Incentives

RD & D

33%

34%

Fiscal Incentives
38%

RD & D
47%

Infrastructure
20%

Figure 7 Spending by EVI countries (2008-14)

Infrastucture
28%

Figure 8 Planned spending by India (As per FAME,

2015-17)

It seems that India has rightly allocated its share for fiscal
incentives. But where does India stand as compared to the
incentives allocated by different countries? The allocation of
funds in incentives, infrastructure and Research,
Development & Demonstration (RD & D) by different
countries is shown in Figure 9.

India, 41

U.S., 268

France, 157

China, 1,120

U.S., 360

France, 56

Denmark, 10.5

India, 2,833

U.S., 7,500

Spain, 6,720

Japan, 8,200

China, 9,600

India, 33

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FISCAL IN CEN TIV ES

IN FRASTRUCTURE

RD & D (MILLION

(USD)

(MILLION USD)

USD)

Figure 9

Clearly, India lags behind in all areas - incentivizing, funding

charging infrastructure and demonstrating projects. But this
is not the end of the road for electric vehicles in India. Wellconceptualized projects can really turn the markets. India
can take lessons from the strategies that have successfully
made an impact globally.

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To understand if an EV is financially viable, it must be

compared to an ICEV in the same segment, which offers
similar features/ values to its customer. The EV and ICEV are
selected upon their mode of operation i.e. fully battery
operated vehicle and the petrol-variant model of ICEV.
Therefore, the natural choice of EV and ICEV respectively
comes down to Mahindra Reva e2o (the only EV car
manufactured in India) and Tata Nano Twist XT (the ICEV
car in the same segment) based on the following significant
similarities:
Manufacturer

Indian

Car type

Hatchback
A1 (based on Society of Indian Automobile

Segment

Manufacturers (SIAM) classification of length

less than 3400 mm)

Seating capacity

4
Air conditioner, central locking, CD player, power

Key features

steering, power windows

Airbag & traction control

No

INR (Lakh)

Assuming that an urban consumer is likely to replace a car

after 5 years, the comparison done here is for the time period
of 5 years or 50,000 kms. Note that the capital investment for
the e2o (INR 6.23 lakh (USD 9,584)) is after accounting for
the subsidy of INR 124,000 (USD 1,907) under the FAME
scheme (16.6% of the capital cost excluding battery cost).
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
-

INR 3.7 lakh

(USD 5,692)

Mahindra e2o
Battery Cost

Maintenance cost

Tata Nano
Fuel cost

Capital Investment

Figure 10: Total Cost of Ownership (5 years or 50,000 km)

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Key takeaways from the comparison:

1. The capital cost to be invested in e2o is more than twice
(precisely 2.20 times) the amount to be invested in Nano.
2. The fuel cost of the e2o is 6 times less than the fuel cost in
Nano. (Note that petrol price is assumed as INR 60/litre and
electricity price is assumed as INR 4/kWh).
3. The fuel economy of Tata Nano being in km/l (20 km/l) and
that of e2o being in km/kWh (8 km/kWh), it is difficult to
pinpoint the better one in terms of mileage. Thus, as a
common measure for mileage, it is expressed as the average
distance travelled per unit of energy consumed. The
equivalent mileage in km/l for the Mahindra e2o is 3.5 times
that of the Tata Nano. This means that on the course of 5
years, an e2o will help save us around 6 tonnes of CO2
emissions if charged from a completely decarbonized grid
structure or 1.8 tonnes of CO2 emissions if charged from the
current grid structure of India that has 70% of energy being
generated from thermal power plants 21.
4. The per km cost of ownership over 5 years for the e2o is
1.53 times that of the Nano. If 34% of the cost of BEV is
waived as opposed to the current 16.6% one might be
inclined to make a choice to buy an e2o over Nano (see
chapter 4 Recommendations & way forward on how this
can be done).
BEV manufactured in India comes with an additional tax
benefit of accelerated depreciation. While depreciation rate
on an ICEV is just 15% per year, a BEV comes with the
Accelerated Depreciation (AD) rate of 80%. Figure 8 shows
the incorporation of tax benefits from AD. These tax savings
bring down the net amount invested (shown here as the net
cost of ownership) in owning the EV over the span of 5 years.
Despite the tax benefit from AD and the subsidy by FAME, the
cost of ownership of e2o remains 1.53 times more than that
of Nano and requires an additional investment of INR 2.27
lakh (USD 3,492). This extra investment explains the slow
market growth of EV.
If Government really wants to adhere to the targets of
NEMMP, then there must be additional benefits such as

21

Energy Statistics 2015, Central Statistics Office, Government of India, http://goo.gl/E8uGZw

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subsidies or waivers on taxes. A good option to promote EVs

in India would be for the State Government to offer
additional subsidies by waiving off the VAT and registration
tax on electric vehicles. This forms up to 16% of the total cost
of an EV as of today. Figure 10 shows that inclusion of
additional tax benefits like VAT (Central VAT & State VAT)
and registration tax brings down the net investment close
enough to an ICEV level. The Government must not forget
that the goal remains to bring down the investment of BEV
to an ICEV level, so that the EV market remains selfsustaining.
9.00
8.00

Depreciation
Benefits

7.00

VAT

INR (Lakh)

6.00

Registration Tax

5.00

4.00

Net cost of

3.00

ownership
(includes
(includes tax
tax

Depreciation
Benefits

2.00
1.00

Mahindra e2o

Figure 11: Net Cost of Ownership (5 years)

Tata Nano

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Announcing and implementing the FAME scheme is just half

the journey in making India a vibrant EV market. The key
challenges that remain are:
1. A negligible charging infrastructure : The lack of charging
infrastructure creates the environment of inconvenience in
the public for adoption of EVs.
2. Lack of awareness: There is a lack of awareness in the public
about the advantages of electric vehicles.
3. Lack of manufactures : The lack of EV manufacturers in India
(especially in 4-wheeler segment) is one of the major reason
for the slow market growth of electric transportation.
Moreover, the FAME scheme qualifies only Indian EV
manufacturers as the beneficiary for incentives.
It seems as the Government is enthusiastic to release the
subsidy schemes, but its scarce involvement in EV-boostingprojects has left with an impression of low esteem for
electric automation in the market. To reverse this situation,
we recommend the Government to look forward in the
following programs/ development/ projects.
1. Long-term policy clarity: The NEMMP does envisage
establishing a vibrant EV market in India but lacks on the
information of how that will be done! The first step for the
Government of India is to come up with a policy that states
the long-term targets for electric vehicles and lays down the
pathway for how that shall be done.
2. Subsidy is essential: The subsidy under FAME is clearly not
enough to incentivize potential car owner to opt for EV. At
least until the EV market matures, the State Governments
should complement the Central Governments efforts to
deploy EVs by waiving off the VAT and registration tax levied
on an EV purchase.
3. Battery Swapping: With lack of charging infrastructure,
battery swap might just be more convenient for the EV
adopters. A battery swap program in a city/ state can
eventually result in the development of the proper charging
infrastructure for the EVs.

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4. Car Sharing: The best perk of car-sharing is that customers

need not invest in the currently high priced EV. Instead they
can rent out the EVs. Such projects not only facilitate
employment (drivers) but also bring economic and
environmental benefits (reduces congestion) to the country.
A pilot project on electric car sharing is definitely worth
looking into. Perhaps, Ola and Uber can deploy EV fleets to
capture small distance commute & acquire a green status
symbol or the government can enforce Ola or Uber to have a
fair share of electric vehicles in their fleet. As a matter of fact,
ferrying the employees in electric-cabs (service like Lithium,
Bengaluru) can save millions of dollar 22.
5. Electric Buses: With a large and dense population in Urban
India, it is seen that mass transit system works very well.
Electric Buses have been the talk-of-the-day since long now
and the potential development they have shown in countries
like China and Australia is unprecedented. Adding to the
advantages, China has successfully unveiled the fastest
charging stations for electric bus 23; with less than 10 seconds
of charging time. ABB also demonstrated similar
development24 that takes around 15 seconds to charge an
electric bus on the go. Imagine such e-Buses running in the
routes of Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS); most of the
infrastructure being already there, this can be put in action
relatively faster than other projects in India where a BRTS
infrastructure is already up and running.
6. Creating motivation/ competition for the performanceoriented market: Tesla motors Inc., U.S. has proved a simple
yet powerful fact that electric vehicles can perform better
than the conventionally powered combustion engine
vehicles. This has resulted in creating a performanceoriented awareness promoting the electric automotive
industry in the U.S. and other countries. But such awareness
campaigns have to be organized for the Indian market too.
Government can do it either by awareness campaigns or
organizing some competitions. In parallel to this,
manufacturers can take up an initiative to step into the

Electric-cab service Lithium to begin operations in Bengaluru next month, Economic Times,
http://goo.gl/4g1edA
23 Worlds fastest charging electric bus takes 10 seconds to charge, Electric Vehicle News,
http://goo.gl/rrVaMJ
24 ABB unveils ultrafast 15-sec flash charging electric bus, CleanTechnica, http://goo.gl/5TCcNA
22

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performance-oriented market and see if they can perform

better than what they are doing right now. At the end of the
day, the design output of the electric vehicle will decide its
own market.

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Gujarat Energy Research & Management Institute (GERMI)

is a center of excellence in industry learning and has set up
to develop human resource assets to cater to the petroleum
and allied energy sectors, improve knowledge base of policy
makers and technologists and provide a competitive edge to
leaders to compete in the global arena.

Ankit Bhatt is a senior project fellow at GERMI, post graduated

in solar energy from Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University.
He is currently carrying out his research on electric vehicles
and renewable energy policies. He can be reached at
ankit.b@germi.res.in

Akhilesh Magal is the Head Advisor Solar Energy at GERMI,

an institute dedicated to research in the fields of, solar energy,
energy efficiency, environment and petroleum research. He is
an environment engineer from Carnegie Mellon University and
is an expert on solar policies and grid integration of renewable
energy. He can be reached at akhilesh.m@germi.res.in