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ANALYSIS
AR TIC LE I N FO
ABS TR ACT
Article history:
Brazil contains the world's largest tropical rainforests, most located in the Amazon River
Basin. Over the last three decades, rapid growth of this region's deforested area has had
negative impacts. To minimize these impacts and maintain biodiversity, the Brazilian
16 September 2006
Government has established several national forests in the Basin. The ITTO Project, a
reduced impact logging (RIL) operation, was recently carried out at one of these forests: the
Tapajs National Forest, also known as Flona Tapajs. This paper evaluates the Project's
profitability and its effect on local residents. The Project, which ran between 1999 and 2003,
Keywords:
Logging
Resources (IBAMA), with funding for planning and monitoring provided by the United
National forests
Profitability
by the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO). Treviso Agropecuria Ltda, a private
Social impacts
logging company, carried out timber extraction on the Project site. Our evaluation found the
Brazil
ITTO Project to have been highly profitable for Treviso, even after their compliance with all
JEL classification:
Q2;Q23;Q28
Brazilian labor and environmental laws. This finding was based on field interviews and the
examination of documents from IBAMA and Treviso. Treviso's mean internal rate of return
from the Project was calculated to have been 35.79%, considerably higher than that
generated by the region's farms and ranches. The ITTO Project positively impacted Project
workers, providing employment and exposing them to rainforest management techniques
that maximize timber production while minimizing forest destruction. The paper closes by
suggesting that more of the direct and indirect benefits of new reduced impact logging
projects on Brazilian national forest land need to be channeled to the local population to
increase the probability of them act as capable forest custodians.
2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1.
Introduction
0921-8009/$ - see front matter 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.09.024
EC O LO G I CA L E C O N O M I CS 6 3 ( 2 00 7 ) 7 07 7
71
Fig. 1 Brazil (map on left side), the state of Par (pointed out on bottom left side) and Tapajs National Forest location (white
area on western Par). On right side, map of Tapajs National Forest, where ITTO Project area is highlighted in red at
Northeastern Flona Tapajs (For interpretation of the references to colour of this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web
version of this article).
72
E CO L O G I CA L E CO N O MI CS 63 ( 20 0 7 ) 7 07 7
2.
Review of literature
3.
Number of
families
Number of
inhabitants
36
52
19
21
22
49
70
n.a.
n.a.
18
38
57
30
n.a.
38
15
36
12
11
13
208
42
24
190
230
76
78
110
260
370
n.a.
n.a.
100
200
300
150
n.a.
266
112
176
72
47
78
1500
350
144
26
39
876
118
175
5102
EC O LO G I CA L E C O N O M I CS 6 3 ( 2 00 7 ) 7 07 7
Task
Productivity
Cost
US$/
ha
117.21 m/HH
3.45
1.10 ha/h
0.70 ha/HH
591.82 m2/
HM
1.52 trees/h
1.43 trees/h
2.93 trees/h
12.31
4.71
54.09
55.83
31.95
80.30
4.09
21.25
82.42
1.33
4.26
4.02
0.81
23.42
4.92
389.17
73
4.
Methodology
4.1.
Profitability indicators
The internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV) and
total profit were calculated for Treviso's share in the ITTO
Project and used to evaluate Project profitability. Both deterministic and risk analysis were conducted. Risk analysis was
first performed considering the effect of a 10% increase or
decrease in Project revenue, as determined by the prices paid for
Project timber, on Project IRR and NPV. One thousand Monte
Carlo simulations were then run to gauge the effect of a 10% or
20% deviation in mean Project costs, produced quantities, and
prices on maximum, minimum, and mean Project IRR and NPV
values.1 Due to the scarcity of information about these three
variables probabilistic distribution format, normal distribution
was assumed. IBAMA's fees were also estimated and compared
with IBAMA's expenditures for the entire ITTO Project.
IBAMA and Treviso employees accurately noted all technical operations conducted on ITTO Project land, but they did
not employ the same rigor when recording the cost of inputs.
For this reason, IRR calculations were carried out under the
assumption that Treviso paid the highest regional input prices
and wages for its activity on the ITTO Project, which most
likely caused Project costs to be overestimated and, consequently, IRR and NPV to be underestimated. Project input cost
information was collected from IBAMA's Santarm office.
We first estimate the average productivity of labor and
machines for each of Treviso's main harvesting operations
directly linked with the ITTO Project using the company's
information (see Rodriguez and Bacha, 2004). The unit costs of
these resources are them used to determine the per hectare
operational costs of Treviso's main harvesting operations. The
results from these calculations are presented in Table 2.
4.2.
Questionnaires
74
E CO L O G I CA L E CO N O MI CS 63 ( 20 0 7 ) 7 07 7
0
1
2
3
4
Total
a
b
c
Month
Nov/99
Nov/00
Nov/01
Nov/02
Nov/03
38.46
15.73
22.13
23.68
100
Class II
Class III
4854
1985
2793
2989
12,621
9145
3740
5262
5631
23,778
10,381
4246
5974
6392
26,993
Costs b (US$)
Revenues c (US$)
737,755.84
301,739.45
424,506.94
454,239.69
1,918,241.92
1,001,817.68
409,739.78
576,448.91
616,823.78
2,604,830.15
5.
Results
5.1.
Financial analysis
Actual
Assuming 10%
higher wood
prices
Assuming 10%
lower wood
prices
IRR (%)
NPV at
NPV at
6%-discount rate 8%-discount rate
(US$ thousands) (US$ thousands)
35.79
49.37
500.74
728.98
448.20
667.19
22.21
272.51
229.21
75
EC O LO G I CA L E C O N O M I CS 6 3 ( 2 00 7 ) 7 07 7
Table 5 Internal rate of return and net present value according to Monte Carlo Simulation
Situation
Jointed
price,
production
and cost
fluctuation
Only price
fluctuation
Only cost
fluctuation
Only
production
fluctuation
Considering
Jointed
20% standard
price,
deviation in
production
relation to the and cost
medium values fluctuation
Only price
fluctuation
Only cost
fluctuation
Only
production
fluctuation
3.42
36.89
112.58
37.1
501.66
1152.05
65.02
449.17
1084.36
4.88
36.04
63.45
18.81
504.86
965.66
50.3
452.15
894.28
13.26
36.47
78.10
164.91
498.37
806.90
114.75
445.93
751.93
11.59
35.89
51.38
116.98
499.81
752.52
71.91
447.38
690.3
16.46
38.00
184.57
616.03
473.72
1772.67
629.25
422.42
1676.71
17.91
34.90
84.39
401.87
485.71
1317.63
417.84
433.78
1231.98
2.93
38.88
121.99
224.33
496.69
1121.20
263.56
444.20
1052.69
8.56
35.89
72.87
48.31
493.88
1029.09
10.19
441.86
959.19
2
Note that projects with cattle include land cost at IRR
calculation and in ITTO-project's IRR land cost was not included,
because land belongs to Federal government and it charged taxes
and fees from the concessionaire enterprise. However, both taxes
and fees were included in ITTO-project's IRR calculation.
10.83
15.00
20.83
4.00
5.00
6.00
Freight
(US$/m3)
Total
(US$/m3)
6.67
8.67
9.17
21.50
28.67
36.00
76
E CO L O G I CA L E CO N O MI CS 63 ( 20 0 7 ) 7 07 7
5.2.
Results from questionnaire responses, interviews, and
other reports
Information in this section comes from analysis of questionnaire responses, interviews conducted with the Project's local
stakeholders, Treviso and CEMEX documents, and an examination of Brazilian labor law. Interviews were conducted and
questionnaires completed between May 27 and June 2, 2004.
The Brazilian Federal Government has established a
minimum wage in all national territory, a normal work week
of 44 h, and a wage increase of 50% for hours worked that
exceed this limit. Full time workers have the right to a 30-day
paid vacation each year and one extra month's pay per year
(the 13th). Employers pay several labor related taxes, which
range in total from 49% to 102% of payroll, depending on the
economic activity. These substantial labor related taxes,
complex labor laws, and an amply supplied labor pool, as
indicated by the country's high unemployment rate, motivate
employers to use unregistered workers, pay below minimum
wage, circumvent pension plan obligations, and avoid taxes.
5.2.1.
Jobs generated
From the information gathered during interviews, the following conclusions arose:
a. The ITTO Project employed from 42 to 51 workers per
month, which would average one job for every 19 families
living in the Tapajs National Forest;
b. There were 43 jobs offered during the last year of the
Project: one forest engineer, one forest technician, one
accountant, three loader operators, one tractor operator,
two skidder operators, one cook, one cooking assistant, one
mechanic, one tire fitter, eight chainsaw operators, eight
chainsaw assistants, four skidding planners and assistants,
eight log landing inventory keepers, and two security
guards;
c. Initially, Project employees were non-local; at Project close,
60% of its employees were from local communities;
d. The local workforce occupied low and medium level
positions, such as chainsaw operators, cooks, tree markers,
mechanics, log counters, and other support roles;
e. Most of the Project's local workforce came from communities with access to graded dirt roads passable in dry
seasons. No workers were employed from the almost
inaccessible communities of Piquiatuba, Marituba, and
Marai, spite of they neighbor ITTO Project's area;
f. The initial level of Project job security was low: of the 50
employees working the first year, only 17 were kept to work
the second year.
As a note, ITTO Project planners anticipated the local
population's slow integration into the early phases of the
Project.
5.2.2.
5.2.3.
Working conditions
EC O LO G I CA L E C O N O M I CS 6 3 ( 2 00 7 ) 7 07 7
6.
Conclusion
77
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