2015A

2016P

Capital Structure
% of debt
% of equity
Beta
Growth Ratio
Cost of Capital
Debt% (after tax) Kd
Equity% (CAPM)
WACC%

2017P
2018P
2019P
FINITE HORIZON FORECAST

2020P

2021T
Beyond 2021 T
INFINITE HORIZON FORECAST

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

-0.0335

-0.0335

-0.0335

-0.0335

-0.0335

-0.0335

-0.0335

-0.0335

0.044

0.044

0.045

0.050

0.050

0.050

0.051

0.051

0.062
0.0694
0.0690

0.062
0.06941
0.0690

0.062
0.06941
0.0690

0.062
0.06941
0.0690

0.062
0.06941
0.0690

0.062
0.06941
0.0690

0.062

0.062

0.0694109
0.0689922

0.17
0.27
-0.13
0.37
0.007
0.062

0.18
0.27
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

0.18
0.27
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

0.18
0.27
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

-0.1
0.27
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

-0.16
0.27
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

-0.16

-0.16

0.18
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

0.18
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

-168258

-349,887
1,279,594
929,707

-412,979
1,389,111
976,132

-487,315
1,639,151
1,151,836

-438,584
1,475,236
1,036,652

-368,410
1,239,198
870,788

-309,465
1,040,926
731,462

-259,950
874,378
614,428

Analysis Ratio
Sales Growth Rate
NOPAT Margin
WC to sales
LT Assets to sales
Debt Ratio
After-Tax cost of debt
Beg. Net Working Capital
+ Beg. Net Long term Assets
= Net Operating Assets

Net Debt
Equity Adjustment
+ Shareholder's Equity
= Net Equity

+
=

Income statement (IDR)

Sales
Net operating profit after tax
Net interest expense after tax
Net Income to common
EPS
Cash Flow Data
Net Income
Change in net working capital
Change in net long-term assets
Net Debt
Free Cash Flow to Equity
Present Value
Total PV FCFE Finite Forecast
PV FCFE Infinite forecast
Total Present Value FCFE
Outstanding Shares (million)
Share Price
Market Price as 08/10/16
Conclusion

1,341,995
1,173,737
619,940

6,502

6,826

8,055

7,250

6,090

5,115

4,297

923,205

969,305

1,143,780

1,029,402

864,698

726,346

610,131

553,797
1,173,737

929,707

976,132

1,151,836

1,036,652

870,788

731,462

614,428

2,696,318
532,752
35,843
496,909
236

3,181,655
859,047
406
858,641
408

3,754,353
1,013,675
426
1,013,249
481

4,430,137
1,196,137
503
1,195,634
567

3,987,123
1,076,523
453
1,076,071
511

3,349,183
904,280
380
903,899
429

2,813,314
506,397
319
506,077
240

2,363,184
425,373
268
425,105

496,909
-181,629
-62,401
619,940
872,819

859,047
-63,092
109,517
6,502
911,974
852,782

1,013,675
-74,336
250,040
6,826
1,196,206
1,045,965

1,196,137
48,732
-163,915
8,055
1,089,009
890,428

1,076,523
70,173
-236,038
7,250
917,909
701,815

904,280
58,946
-198,272
6,090
771,043
551,261

506,397
49,514
-166,548
5,115
394,478

425,373
0

4,042,251
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
2,107
#VALUE!
Rp12,650
#VALUE!

410

2015A

Capital Structure
% of debt
% of equity
Beta
Growth Ratio
Cost of Capital
Debt% (after tax) Kd
Equity% (CAPM)
WACC%

2016P

2017P

2018P
2019P
FINITE HORIZON FORECAST

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

-0.0335

-0.0335

-0.0335

-0.0335

-0.0335

0.044

0.044

0.044

0.044

0.045

0.062
0.0694
0.0690

0.062
0.06941
0.0690

0.062
0.06941
0.0690

0.062
0.06941
0.0690

0.062
0.06941
0.0690

0.04
0.27
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

0.04
0.27
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

0.04
0.27
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

0.04
0.27
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

-0.01
0.27
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

-168258
1,341,995
1,173,737

-349,887
1,279,594
929,707

-320,797
1,079,045
758,248

-333,629
1,122,207
788,578

-330,293
1,110,985
780,692

619,940

6,502

5,303

5,515

5,460

923,205

752,945

783,063

775,232

758,248

788,578

780,692

Analysis Ratio
Sales Growth Rate
NOPAT Margin
WC to sales
LT Assets to sales
Debt Ratio
After-Tax cost of debt
Beg. Net Working Capital
+ Beg. Net Long term Assets
= Net Operating Assets
Net Debt
Equity Adjustment
+ Shareholder's Equity
= Net Equity

553,797
1,173,737

929,707

Income statement (IDR)

Sales
Net operating profit after tax
- Net interest expense after tax
= Net Income to common

2,696,318
532,752
35,843
496,909

2,804,171
757,126
406
756,720

2,916,338
3,032,991
3,002,661
787,411
818,908
810,719
331 344.322891141 340.879662229
787,080
818,563
810,378

EPS
Cash Flow Data
Net Income
- Change in net working capital
- Change in net long-term assets
+ Net Debt
= Free Cash Flow to Equity
Present Value
Total PV FCFE Finite Forecast
PV FCFE Infinite forecast
Total Present Value FCFE
Outstanding Shares (million)
Share Price
Market Price as 08/10/16
Conclusion

236

359

374

388

385

496,909
-181,629
-62,401
619,940
872,819

757,126
29,090
-200,549
6,502
592,169
553,734

787,411
-12,832
43,162
5,303
823,044
719,671

818,908
3,336
-11,222
5,515
816,537
667,639

810,719
3,303
-11,110
5,460
808,371
618,063

2,984,628
26,134,908
29,119,536
2,107
Rp13,820
Rp12,650
undervalued

2020P

FORECAST

2021T
Beyond 2021 T
INFINITE HORIZON FORECAST

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

-0.0335

-0.0335

-0.0335

0.045

0.048

0.048

0.062
0.06941
0.0690

0.062

0.062

0.0694109
0.0689922

-0.01
0.24
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

-0.16

-0.16

0.20
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

0.20
-0.11
0.37
0.007
0.062

-326,990
1,099,875
772,885

-274,671
923,895
649,223

-230,724
776,072
545,348

5,405

4,540

3,814

767,480

644,683

541,534

772,885

649,223

545,348

2,972,635
713,432
337.470865607
713,095

2,497,013
2,097,491
499,403
419,498
283.47552711 238.119442772
499,119
419,260

338

237

713,432
52,318
-175,980
5,405
595,176
425,522

499,403
43,947
-147,823
4,540
400,067
18,685,208

331
419,498
0

2015A

Capital Structure
% of debt
% of equity
Beta
Growth Ratio
Cost of Capital
Debt% (after tax) Kd
Equity% (CAPM)
WACC%

2016P

2017P

2018P
2019P
FINITE HORIZON FORECAST

2020P

0.007
0.993
-0.03
0.044

0.007
0.993
-0.03
0.044

0.007
0.993
-0.03
0.045

0.007
0.993
-0.03
0.044

0.007
0.993
-0.03
0.044

0.007
0.993
-0.03
0.044

0.062
0.069
0.069

0.062
0.069
0.069

0.062
0.069
0.069

0.062
0.069
0.069

0.062
0.069
0.069

0.04
0.27
-0.12
0.37
0.007
0.062

0.04
0.27
-0.12
0.37
0.007
0.062

0.05
0.27
-0.12
0.37
0.007
0.062

0.05
0.27
-0.12
0.37
0.007
0.062

-168258

-349,887
1,279,594
929,707

-353,326
1,089,420
736,095

-370,992
1,143,891
772,900

2021T
Beyond 2021 T
INFINITE HORIZON FORECAST

0.007
0.993

0.007
0.993

-0.0335

-0.0335

0.037

0.037

0.062
0.069
0.069

0.062
0.069
0.069

0.062

-0.03
0.27
-0.12
0.37
0.007
0.062

-0.01
0.27
-0.12
0.37
0.007
0.062

-0.1

-0.1

0.18
-0.12
0.37
0.007
0.062

0.18
-0.12
0.37
0.007
0.062

-359,862
1,109,575
749,713

-356,263
1,098,479
742,215

-320,637
988,631
667,994

-288,573
889,768
601,195

Analysis Ratio
Sales Growth Rate
NOPAT Margin
WC to sales
LT Assets to sales
Debt Ratio
After-Tax cost of debt
Beg. Net Working Capital
+ Beg. Net Long term Assets
= Net Operating Assets

Net Debt
Equity Adjustment
+ Shareholder's Equity
= Net Equity

+
=

Income statement (IDR)

Sales
Net operating profit after tax
Net interest expense after tax
Net Income to common
EPS
Cash Flow Data
Net Income
Change in net working capital
Change in net long-term assets
Net Debt
Free Cash Flow to Equity
Present Value
Total PV FCFE Finite Forecast
PV FCFE Infinite forecast
Total Present Value FCFE
Outstanding Shares (million)
Share Price
Market Price as 08/10/16
Conclusion

1,341,995
1,173,737
619,940

6,502

5,148

5,405

5,243

5,191

4,672

4,204

923,205

730,947

767,494

744,470

737,025

663,322

596,990

553,797
1,173,737

929,707

736,095

772,900

749,713

742,215

667,994

601,195

2,696,318
532,752
35,843
496,909
236

2,804,171
757,126
406
756,720
359

2,944,379
794,982
321
794,661
377

3,091,598
834,732
337.48
834,394
396

2,998,850
809,690
327.35
809,362
384

2,968,862
801,593
324.08
801,269
380

2,671,976
480,956
291.67
480,664
228

2,404,778
432,860
262.50
432,598

496,909
-181,629
-62,401
619,940
872,819

757,126
-3,439
-190,174
6,502
570,016
533,018

794,982
-17,666
54,471
5,148
836,935
731,817

834,732
11,130
-34,317
5,405
816,950
667,977

809,690
3,599
-11,096
5,243
807,435
617,347

801,593
35,626
-109,848
5,191
732,562
523,747

480,956
32,064
-98,863
4,672
418,828
12,922,435

432,860
0

3,073,906
18,074,546
21,148,452
2,107
Rp10,037
Rp12,650
overvalued

337

2012
Income Statement
NET SALES
COST OF GOODS SOLD
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Selling expenses
General and administrative exp
Other Operating Income (Expenses)
Total Operating Expenses
Operating Income
Other Financial Income (Expense)
Financial Income
Financial Expense
Total Other Financial Income (Expense)
Profit Before Income Tax
Income tax expense
Profit For The Year From Continuing Operations
Other Comprehensive Income
Total Comprehensive Income For This Year
Total Earning Per Share (Full Amount)
Balance Sheet (IDR)
Assets
Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents
Restricted Cash and Cash Equivalent current portion
Trade Receivable (net)
Inventory (net)
Corporate Income Tax Payable (more)/Less
Other Current Asset
Total Current Assets
Non Current Asset
Fixed Asset
Itangible Asset
Deffered Tax Asset
Other non Current Asset
Total Non-current Assets
Total Assets
Liablilities and Shareholders' Equity
Current Liabilities
Trade Payable
Short Term Bank Loan
Taxes Payable

1,097,679,986
(607,844,710)
489,835,276
(11,994,118)
(111,862,332)
1,154,042
(122,702,408)
367,132,868
28,349,711
(61,269)
28,288,442
395,421,310
(96,908,787)
298,512,523
298,512,523.00
-

2012
498,446,901
40,000,000
319,067
116,659,717
5,281,083
660,706,768
518,007,604
803064
19,068,971
537,879,639
1,198,586,407

63,977,489
2,765,620
21,220,817

Accrued Expense
Due to related parties-net of current maturity
Employee benefits liabilities
Other Current Liabilities
Total current liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Deffered Tax Liability
Employee benefits liabilities
Due to related parties-net of current maturity
Mine redamation fees and services
Total Long-term liabilities
Total Liabilities
Shareholder's Equity
Share Capital
Additional Paid in Capital
Retained Eearning
Other Comprehensive Income
Total Shareholders' Equity
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity

Interest Expense
Interest Income
Net Interest
TC (1-0,25) 0,75
NOPAT
Net Working Capital
Net Long-term Assets
Net Operating Assets

28,958,392
14,090,469
36,747,056
3,630,928
171,390,771
14,655,758
24,420,065
27,000,000
6,981,404
73,057,227
244,447,998
640,000,000
314,138,409
954,138,409
1,198,586,407

61,269
95,179,487
-95,118,218
-71,338,664
227,173,860
-46,365,284
464,822,412
418,457,128

2013

2014

2015

1,168,607,832
(706,399,933)
462,207,899

1,214,914,932
(835,735,508)
379,179,424

1,461,248,284
(967,669,232)
493,579,052

(9,504,145)
(125,389,795)
1,864,048
(133,029,892)
329,178,007

(5,595,166)
(127,235,596)
6,945,080
(125,885,682)
253,293,742

(13,575,530)
(149,168,320)
(7,571,847)
(170,315,697)
323,263,355

71,288,267
(64,370)
71,223,897
400,401,904
(88,218,068)
312,183,836
312,183,836.00
37

151,672,647
(156,791)
151,515,856
404,809,598
(68,854,736)
335,954,862
(7,486,394)
328,468,468
34

120,301,821
(150,924)
120,150,897
443,414,252
(89,234,190)
354,180,062
(5,835,216)
348,344,846
36

2013

2014

2015

1,882,847,828
20,050,000
35,736,258
132,308,906
15,037,805
20,660,590
2,106,641,387

2,053,923,878
50,000
80,553,246
187,421,121
13,820,502
2,335,768,747

1,251,360,158
50,000
39,417,460
185,853,457
461,885,894
1,938,566,969

589,671,589
754,260

557,907,013
3,329,479
2,119,509
29,355,618
592,711,619
2,928,480,366

787,023,588
3,382,822
1,249,488
538,445,066
1,330,100,964
3,268,667,933

91,259,333
13,581,209

109,968,001
42,414,588

14,349,099
604,774,948
2,711,416,335

67,974,287
22,705,788

48,837,585
13,500,000
39,092,042
1,521,584
193,631,286

30,427,062
13,500,000
29,078,161
1,903,475
179,749,240

67,224,580
35,185,681
1,202,044
255,994,894

13,070,272
17,099,836
13,500,000
7,158,187
50,828,295
244,459,581

58,789,067
6,850,242
65,639,309
245,388,549

55,765,600
7,554,855
63,320,455
319,315,349

2,466,956,754
2,711,416,335

983,767,850
1,034,031,977
707,065,830
(41,773,840)
2,683,091,817
2,928,480,366

###
###
979,161,813
(47,609,056)
2,949,352,584
3,268,667,933

64,370
102,055,574
-101,991,204
-76,493,403
235,690,433

156,791
153974357
-153,817,566
-115,363,175
220,591,688

150,924
118577477
-118,426,553
-88,819,915
265,360,147

-4,925,532
553,946,653
549,021,121

102,045,629
527,072,310
629,117,939

431,161,917
1,266,780,509
1,697,942,426

983,767,850
1,034,031,977
449,156,927
-

E
Share price as 08 Oct
Outstanding Shares
E (Marcap)

Equity%
Debt%
Ke
WACC

2660
9,838,000
26,169,080,000

1.0369316
(0.0369316)
11.74380
12.1747661

Calculating D
cash
total debt
Interest exp
interest income
net interest
net debt
Calculating Kd
I (average int ratio)
1-TC
Kd

2014
2,053,923,878
245,388,549
156,791
153974357
-153817566
-1,808,535,329

2015
1,251,360,158
319,315,349
150,924
118577477
-118426553
-932044809

0.0993381347
0.75
0.0745036011

2015A

Capital Structure
% of debt
% of equity
Beta
Growth Ratio
Cost of Capital
Debt% (after tax) Kd
Equity% (CAPM)
WACC%

-0.036932
1.04
1.18
0.30

0.075
0.117
0.12

Analysis Ratio
Sales Growth Rate
NOPAT Margin
WC to sales
LT Assets to sales
Debt Ratio
After-Tax cost of debt

+
=

Beg. Net Working Capital

Beg. Net Long term Assets
Net Operating Assets

+
=

Net Debt
Equity Adjustment
Shareholder's Equity
Net Equity

+
=

Income statement (IDR)

Sales
Net operating profit after tax
Net interest expense after tax
Net Income to common
EPS
Cash Flow Data
Net Income
Change in net working capital
Change in net long-term assets
Net Debt
Free Cash Flow to Equity
Present Value
Total FCFE Finite Forecast
PV FCFE Infinite forecast
Total Present Value FCFE
Outstanding Shares
Share Price

0.1
0.18
0.3
0.37
-0.036932
0.075
102,045,629
527,072,310
629,117,939
-1,808,535,329
954,138,409
-854,396,920

1,461,248,284
265,360,147
395,421,310
36
395,421,310
329,116,288
739,708,199
-1,808,535,329
-344,289,532
875,317,867
-4,912,018,430
-4,036,700,564
9,838,000
-Rp410

Market Price as 14/12/16

Conclusion

Rp2.600
overvalued

2016P

2017P
FINITE HORIZON FORECAST

2018P

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

0.33

0.36

0.40

0.075
0.117

0.075
0.117

0.075
0.117

0.12

0.12

0.12

0.13
0.185
0.3
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

0.16
0.19
0.3
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

0.2
0.21
0.3
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

431,161,917
1,266,780,509
1,697,942,426

574,621,275
708,699,573
1,283,320,848

689,545,530
850,439,487
1,539,985,018

-62,707,779

-47,395,129

-56,874,155

1,760,650,205

1,330,715,977

1,596,859,172

1,697,942,426

1,283,320,848

1,539,985,018

1,651,210,561
305,473,954
-4,703,083
310,177,037
32

1,915,404,251
363,926,808
-3,554,635
367,481,442
37

2,298,485,101
482,681,871
-4,265,562
486,947,433
49

310,177,037
143,459,358
-558,080,936
-62,707,779
-167,152,320
-148,977,112

367,481,442
114,924,255
141,739,915
-47,395,129
576,750,483
458,144,264

486,947,433
165,490,927
204,105,477
-56,874,155
799,669,682
566,150,715

2019(T)

2020P (T)
INFINITE HORIZON

-0.036932
1.04
1.18
0.41

IN THOUSAND

-0.036932
1.04
1.18
0.42 MAKRP

0.075
0.117

0.075
0.117

0.12

0.12

0.24
0.235
0.3
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

0.29
0.26
0.3
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

855,036,457
1,054,544,964
1,909,581,422

1,102,997,030
1,360,363,004
2,463,360,034

-70,523,952

-90,975,898

1,980,105,373

2,554,335,932

1,909,581,422

2,463,360,034

2,850,121,525
669,778,558
-5,289,296
675,067,855
69

3,676,656,767
955,930,759
-6,823,192
962,753,952
98

675,067,855
247,960,573
305,818,040
-70,523,952
1,158,322,515
-3,953,319,165

962,753,952

53

2015A

Capital Structure
% of debt
% of equity
Beta
Growth Ratio
Cost of Capital
Debt% (after tax) Kd
Equity% (CAPM)
WACC%

-0.036932
1.04
1.18
0.30

0.075
0.117
0.12

Analysis Ratio
Sales Growth Rate
NOPAT Margin
WC to sales
LT Assets to sales
Debt Ratio
After-Tax cost of debt

+
=

Beg. Net Working Capital

Beg. Net Long term Assets
Net Operating Assets

+
=

Net Debt
Equity Adjustment
Shareholder's Equity
Net Equity

+
=

Income statement (IDR)

Sales
Net operating profit after tax
Net interest expense after tax
Net Income to common
EPS
Cash Flow Data
Net Income
Change in net working capital
Change in net long-term assets
Net Debt
Free Cash Flow to Equity
Present Value
Total FCFE Finite Forecast
PV FCFE Infinite forecast

0.15
0.18
0.08
0.37
-0.036932
0.075
102,045,629
527,072,310
629,117,939
-1,808,535,329
954,138,409
-854,396,920

1,461,248,284
265,360,147
395,421,310
36
395,421,310
329,116,288
739,708,199
-1,808,535,329
-344,289,532
395,264,346
-3,352,853,077

Total Present Value FCFE

Outstanding Shares
Share Price
Market Price as 14/12/16
Conclusion

-2,957,588,731
9,838,000
-Rp301
Rp2.600
overvalued

2016P

2017P
FINITE HORIZON FORECAST

2018P

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

0.33

0.36

0.40

0.075
0.117

0.075
0.117

0.075
0.117

0.12

0.12

0.12

0.165
0.19
0.08
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

0.18
0.194
0.08
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

0.18
0.20
0.08
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

431,161,917
1,266,780,509
1,697,942,426

160,702,241
743,247,866
903,950,107

189,628,645
877,032,482
1,066,661,127

-62,707,779

-33,384,350

-39,393,532

1,760,650,205

937,334,457

1,106,054,659

1,697,942,426

903,950,107

1,066,661,127

1,702,354,251
323,447,308
-4,703,083
328,150,391
33

2,008,778,016
389,702,935
-2,503,826
392,206,761
40

2,370,358,059
466,960,538
-2,954,515
469,915,053
48

328,150,391
-270,459,676
-523,532,643
-62,707,779
-528,549,707
-471,078,170

392,206,761
28,926,403
133,784,616
-33,384,350
521,533,431
414,282,357

469,915,053
36,977,586
171,021,334
-39,393,532
638,520,440
452,060,159

2019(T)

2020P (T)
INFINITE HORIZON

IN THOUSAND

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

0.41

0.42

0.075
0.117

0.075
0.117

0.12

0.12

0.195
0.2
0.08
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

0.21
0.2
0.08
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

226,606,230
1,048,053,816
1,274,660,046

274,193,539
1,268,145,117
1,542,338,656

-47,075,271

-56,961,078

1,321,735,318

1,599,299,734

1,274,660,046

1,542,338,656

2,832,577,880
566,515,576
-3,530,645
570,046,221
58

3,427,419,235
685,483,847
-4,272,081
689,755,928
70

570,046,221
47,587,308
220,091,301
-47,075,271
790,649,560
-2,698,462,661

689,755,928

0.25

1.06214507

48

2015A

Capital Structure
% of debt
% of equity
Beta
Growth Ratio
Cost of Capital
Debt% (after tax) Kd
Equity% (CAPM)
WACC%

-0.036932
1.04
1.18
0.30

0.075
0.117
0.12

Analysis Ratio
Sales Growth Rate
NOPAT Margin
WC to sales
LT Assets to sales
Debt Ratio
After-Tax cost of debt

+
=

Beg. Net Working Capital

Beg. Net Long term Assets
Net Operating Assets

+
=

Net Debt
Equity Adjustment
Shareholder's Equity
Net Equity

+
=

Income statement (IDR)

Sales
Net operating profit after tax
Net interest expense after tax
Net Income to common
EPS
Cash Flow Data
Net Income
Change in net working capital
Change in net long-term assets
Net Debt
Free Cash Flow to Equity
Present Value
Total FCFE Finite Forecast
PV FCFE Infinite forecast
Total Present Value FCFE
Outstanding Shares
Share Price

0.1
0.18
-0.04
0.37
-0.036932
0.075
102,045,629
527,072,310
629,117,939
-1,808,535,329
954,138,409
-854,396,920

1,461,248,284
265,360,147
395,421,310
36
395,421,310
329,116,288
739,708,199
-1,808,535,329
-344,289,532
-151,113,514
-3,428,720,266
-3,579,833,780
9,838,000
-Rp364

Market Price as 14/12/16

Conclusion

Rp2.600
overvalued

2016P

2017P
FINITE HORIZON FORECAST

2018P

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

0.30

0.29

0.27

0.075
0.117

0.075
0.117

0.075
0.117

0.12

0.12

0.12

0.1
0.18
-0.04
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

0.2
0.17
-0.04
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

0.15
0.15
-0.04
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

431,161,917
1,266,780,509
1,697,942,426

-77,153,909
713,673,662
636,519,753

-88,726,996
820,724,711
731,997,715

-62,707,779

-23,507,711

-27,033,868

1,760,650,205

660,027,464

759,031,583

1,697,942,426

636,519,753

731,997,715

1,607,373,112
289,327,160
-4,703,083
294,030,244
30

1,928,847,735
327,904,115
-1,763,078
329,667,193
34

2,218,174,895
332,726,234
-2,027,540
334,753,774
34

294,030,244
-508,315,826
-553,106,847
-62,707,779
-830,100,209
-739,839,758

329,667,193
-11,573,086
107,051,049
-23,507,711
401,637,445
319,042,458

334,753,774
-8,872,700
82,072,471
-27,033,868
380,919,678
269,683,787

2019(T)

2020P (T)
INFINITE HORIZON

IN THOUSAND

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

-0.036932
1.04
1.18

0.26

0.26

0.075
0.117

0.075
0.117

0.12

0.12

0.1
0.14
-0.04
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

0.1
0.14
-0.04
0.37
-0.036932
0.075

-97,599,695
902,797,182
805,197,487

-107,359,665
993,076,901
885,717,236

-29,737,254

-32,710,980

834,934,741

918,428,216

805,197,487

885,717,236

2,439,992,385
341,598,934
-2,230,294
343,829,228
35

2,683,991,623
375,758,827
-2,453,323
378,212,151
38

343,829,228
-9,759,970
90,279,718
-29,737,254
394,611,722
-2,759,522,532

378,212,151

0.28

34

Sales
NOPAT
Working Capital
Net Long-term Assets

Sales Growth Rate

Sales Growth rate (%)
NOPAT Margin
WC to sales
LT Assets to sales
Debt Ratio
After-Tax cost of debt

2012
1,097,679,986
227,173,860
-46,365,284
464,822,412

2013
1,168,607,832
235,690,433
-4,925,532
553,946,653

2012

2013

0.21
-0.04
0.42
0.2039469133

0.06
0.06%
0.20
0.00
0.47
0.0901593672

2012
660,706,768
171,390,771
3.85

2013
2,106,641,387
193,631,286
10.88

660,706,768
116,659,717
544,047,051
171,390,771
3.17

2,106,641,387
132,308,906
1,974,332,481
193,631,286
10.20

Inventories
COGS
Inventory
Inventory Turnover
Days of Inventories

2012
607,844,710
116,659,717
5.21
70

2013
706,399,933
132,308,906
5.34
68

Receivables
Sales
Receivables
Receivables Turnover
Days of Receivables

2012
1,097,679,986
319,067
3,440.28
0

2013
1,168,607,832
35,736,258
32.70
11

Payables
COGS
Trade Payables

2012
607,844,710
63,977,489

2013
706,399,933
67,974,287

Liquidity
Data
Current Assets
Current Liabilites
Current Ratio
Current Assets
Inventory
Current Assets - Inventory
Current Liabilites
Quick Ratio
Activity Ratios

Account Payables Turnover

Days of Payables

9.50
38

10.39
35

32

44

2012
1,198,586,407
640,000,000
1.87

2013
2,711,416,335
983,767,850
2.76

2012
298,512,522,563
205,311
1,453,956

2013
312,183,833,754
8,480,673,642
37

Cash Conversion Cycle

Solvency
Financial Leverage
Total Assets
Total Equity
Financial Leverage
EPS
Net Income
Oustanding Shares*
EPS
Average eps 2013-2015

36

P/E Ratios
Market Value as Dec 31
EPS
P/E Ratio

2012
0
1,453,956
0.0

385
37
10.4

ROE
Net Income
Shareholder's Equity
ROE
ROE %

2012
298,512,523
640,000,000
0.47
46.64%

2013
312,183,836
983,767,850
0.32
31.73%

Dividend Payout Ratio

Cash Dividend Paid
Net Income
Dividend Payout Ratio
Sustainable Growth ratio
Sustainable Growth %

2012
50,328,000
298,512,523
0.17
0.39
38.78%

2013
59,702,505
312,183,836
0.19
0.26
25.66%

1,453,956
15

37
37

EPS
EPS Normalisation

2013

2014
1,214,914,932
220,591,688
102,045,629
527,072,310

2014

2015
Average
1,461,248,284
265,360,147
431,161,917
1,266,780,509

2015

1,235,612,759
237,204,032
120,479,183
703,155,471

Average

0.04
0.04%
0.18
0.08
0.43
0.0837938174

0.20
0.20%
0.18
0.30
0.87
0.0976897487

0.10
0.10%
0.19
0.08
0.55
0.12

2014
2,335,768,747
179,749,240
12.99

2015
Average
1,938,566,969
255,994,894
7.57

1,760,420,968
200,191,548
8.83

2,335,768,747
187,421,121
2,148,347,626
179,749,240
11.95

1,938,566,969
185,853,457
1,752,713,512
255,994,894
6.85

1,760,420,968
155,560,800
1,604,860,168
200,191,548
8.04

2014*
835,735,508
187,421,121
4.46
82

2015*
Average
967,669,232
185,853,457
5.21
70

5.05
72.59

2014
1,214,914,932
80,553,246
15.08
24

2015
Average
1,461,248,284
39,417,460
37.07
10

881.28
11

2014
835,735,508
91,259,333

2015
Average
967,669,232
109,968,001

9.16
40

8.80
41

9.46
39

66

38

45

2014
2,928,480,366
983,767,850
2.98

2015
Average
3,268,667,933
983,767,850
3.32

2.73

2014
2015
Average
335,954,862,450 354,180,061,361
9,837,678,500
9,837,678,500
34
36

2014

2015
391
34
11.5

Average
472
36
13.1

2014
335,954,862
983,767,850
0.34
34.15%

2015
Average
354,180,062
983,767,850
0.36
36.00%

0.37
37.13%

2014
78,045,959
335,954,862
0.23
0.26
26.22%

2015
Average
82,084,079
354,180,062
0.23
0.28
27.66%

0.21
0.30
29.58%

34
34

36
36

30

1.4640147103
8
0.65
1.1961661577

Growth Ratio
0.31
0.30
0.29
0.28
0.27
0.26
0.25
0.24

NOPAT Margin
0.2
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0

Sales Growth Rate

0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05

WC to sales
0
-0.005
-0.01
-0.015
-0.02
-0.025
-0.03
-0.035
-0.04
6

-0.045

Growth Ratio
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00

NOPAT Margin
0.205
0.2
0.195
0.19
0.185
0.18
0.175
0.17
0.165

Sales Growth Rate

0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05

WC to sales
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
6

h Rate

les

Growth Ratio
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00

NOPAT Margin
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0

Sales Growth Rate

0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
6

WC to sales
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
6

No

Kode

1 SMGR IJ
2 INTP IJ
3 SMCB IJ

Perusahaan

Semen Indonesia
Indocement Tunggal
Holcim Indonesia
Average

PE Ratio
13.2
16.5
19.9

16.53

Optimis

EPS Average
Average Industry P/E
Share Price
Share Price 08/10/16
Conclusion

53
16.53
-Rp410
Rp2.600
Overvalued

Moderate
48
16.53
-Rp301
Rp2.600
Overvalued

Pesimis
34
16.53
-Rp364
Rp2.600
Overvalued