CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Modeling and simulation of human crowd behavior

Previously, human crowd behavior had been studied empirically and evaluated by direct
observations, photographs and video footage. Numerous researches conducted were focused on
a particular phenomenon like pedestrian movement on the sidewalk and usually presented in the
form of regression relations. For instance, the designing for pedestrian by John J. Fruin (1971)
turns out to be contributory in establishing a standard for many pedestrian planning. Fruin
introduces guidelines for comfort and safety in terms of the level of service concept that is based
on the density and speed relationship. Nevertheless, previous methodologies are somehow
unsound for the estimation of pedestrian flows at pedestrian zones and buildings with a unique
architecture or in challenging evacuation situations. An effective, efficient and convenient tool
is at most desired one to facilitate crowd behavior studies. Hence, a number of crowd behavior
simulation models have been proposed since then.
For the past four decades, the development of different kinds of models can be seen to
simulate complex crowd behavior. Modeling and simulation have become the best choice of
methodology to understand and predict certain phenomena in a crowd by its replication. The
replication of a phenomenon via mathematical model can demonstrate the dynamics of the
phenomenon via simulation. This medium subsequently provides significant advantages that
permit investigating the phenomenon behavior in an artificial way, which is often either not
possible or too risky in the real world. The crucial traits in human crowd behavior and the
emergence of several empirically observed collective behavior in a crowd could be reproduced
and explained. By means of computer simulations, application in designing and planning
pedestrian facilities and crowd evacuation could be performed.
The chronology of the development of crowd models can be traced back in 1970s wherein
a macro modeling approach, known as the fluid dynamics-crowd flow model, was first proposed
by Henderson (1974). Henderson conjectured the flow of people along a channel behaves

similar to gasses or fluids. In his model the characteristics of crowd motion, such as crowd
density and local speed, were described without consideration of individual differences in the
crowd (Wang and Sun, 2014). Hendersons phenomenological fluid dynamics approach had
been improved by Helbing (1992) by describing a fluid dynamics of the collective movement of
pedestrians on a basis of a Boltzmann-like-gas-kinetic model. Unlike to Hendersons approach,
Helbing developed a specific theory for pedestrians without making use of unrealistic
conservation assumptions. However, the drawback in fluid dynamics models was not reflecting
the reality of pedestrian movement by allowing pedestrians to move around in an unrestricted
manner (Yuen et al., 2012).
In 1990s, micro methods had gotten attention in modeling the crowd behavior. The micro
methods treat individuals in a crowd in detail and concern with the motion characteristics of the
individuals in the crowd. Each individual is tracked as it interacts with other individuals and the
environment. Interactions are governed by contact between individuals and environments. Many
micro models have been developed to accurately predict crowd motion and interpret a variety of
self-organized phenomena in crowd motion. Typical micro models include cellular automata
models (e.g., Perez et al., 2002, Li et al., 2005, Zhao et al., 2006, Nishinari et al., 2006, Varas et
al., 2007), social force models (e.g., Helbing and Molnar, 1995, Helbing, 2000, 2001, 2005,
2009), agent-based models (e.g., Bonabeau, 2002, Zarboutis and Marmaras, 2004, Braun et al.,
2005, Pan et al., 2007), and other particle-based models like DEM-based model (e.g., Park et al.,
2004, Langston et al., 2006, Smith et al., 2009, Singh et al., 2009, Kiyono et al., 1996, 2000,
2004, and Gotoh et al., 2004, 2008, 2009).
The models based on the aforementioned approaches (macro and micro approaches) are
computational models, which can give numerical simulations of crowd behavior. Most models
are application based, focusing on different aspects of crowd behavior. In addition, the studies
of crowd behavior also included the development of crowd simulation for interactive virtual
environments with application as a training system for urban emergency situations (e.g., Cremer
et al., 1995, Bouvier and Guilloteau, 1996, Farenc et al., 1999).
The use of modeling and simulation can provide an insight into the nature of the crowd
behavior in which the solution of certain matters could be led. With the simulation, it could
prove or disprove a variety of relationships observed in a crowd. A model is becoming a
valuable research tool and planning tool these days. As such, a reliable model to produce a
realistic simulation of human crowd behavior has become an important and challenging task.

1.2 Crowd behavior simulator for disaster evacuation

The understanding of crowd behavior is useful for not only a variety of complex collective
behaviors emerging from individual interactions, but it offers significant application in
designing and planning crowd safety as well. With the current trends of an exponential increase
in natural disasters and increasing size and frequency of mass events, the study of crowd
behavior for evacuation in disasters and mass events inevitably becomes crucial. Although many
kinds of crowd evacuation models have been proposed and proved to be useful tools in the
evacuation decision making and risk evaluation, the existing evacuation models still not fully
considered the uncertain behavior of evacuees during the process of evacuation. With regards to
that clarity, an evacuation of crowd in disasters, particularly tsunami, by considering different
traits in crowd behavior becomes the main focus of this research.
To facilitate this research, a microscopic particle-based model which is the Distinct
Element Method (DEM)-based model is a preferable method. The model is capable of modeling
each individual distinctly by tracking the trajectory and rotation of each individual in the
domain. Subsequently, the individuals position and orientation can be evaluated through the
calculation of interactions between individuals and between individuals and boundaries. For
many years, the DEM has been used extensively in modeling the granular flow, which has an
analogy with a person flow. As such, a model called Crowd Behavior Simulator for Disaster
Evacuation (CBS-DE) has been developed by employing the DEM. The CBS-DE is a
multi-agent crowd behavior simulator of microscopic individual-based model. It is designed
with a mathematical model part, where the behavior of the crowd is computed iteratively with
advancing time, and a visualization part, where the computed behavior is displayed. The model
treats an individual behavior in a crowd directly, then simulates the crowd motion, and visualize
in computer graphic environments as an application for disaster crowd evacuation. The aim of
the simulation is to reproduce realistic scenario of an evacuation process evolving in real-time in
dynamics virtual 3D environment. The Autodesk MAYA 2010 (MAYA) environment for
computer graphic movie is utilized in the CBS-DE.
In this contribution, the CBS-DE, which has been used in the previous studies (Gotoh et al.,
2004, 2008, 2009, 2012), is employed and extended accordingly in order to study different traits
in crowd behavior. New mathematical models for new traits of crowd behavior are formulated
and introduced into the CBS-DE. Further, in simulating disaster evacuations, the newly
developed models are demonstrated in different conjectural scenarios in the evacuation process.

1.3 Traits in crowd behavior

The understanding of the traits in crowd behavior that has to be modeled is necessary in order to
develop a mathematical model for simulating human behavior in a crowded evacuation. In this
study, two different traits in crowd behavior have been identified. The first trait concerns to the
switching action behavior in a crowd. To the best of knowledge of this behavior, the switching
action behavior has not yet been considered in current crowd behavior models. Meanwhile, the
second trait concerns to the grouping behavior in a crowd. Until now, limited numbers of works
have been reported on modeling grouping behavior in a crowd. Both traits are believed to have
significant effects in the crowd behavior itself and also in the evacuation process.
The switching action behavior in a crowd is proposed in this research in order to study the
phenomenon of changing in a destination that may occur during the evacuation process. The
mechanism of switching action behavior is proposed by formulating the switching action
function through convolution integral of two functions. Further, the proposed model is
employed to witness the performance of the switching action behavior model on different
conjectural scenarios in the evacuation process with a change in destination.
On the other hand, limited numbers of existing studies of crowd behavior treat grouping
behaviors in their models. This is contradicted to the real life situation where a crowd contains
both isolated individuals and individuals in groups. Crowd motions have been modeled
previously based on interactions between one to one pedestrians only. The grouping behavior
modeling can lead to a more realistic crowd motion, and this research attempts to model
grouping behavior in a crowd behavior simulation and reveals its impact in tsunami evacuation
process.

1.4 Research objectives

This research is objective to study specific traits in crowd behavior that have a significant
contribution to the study of crowd behavior generally and to the evacuation process specifically.
As mentioned in the preceding subchapter, the traits concerned in this research are the switching
action behavior and grouping behavior, which up to now, none or limited numbers of
researchers had considered both traits in the crowd behavior modeling and simulation. The
numerical computations for both traits, namely a switching action behavior model and a
grouping behavior model are developed and proposed for the CBS-DE separately to describe

respectively:

1.

a person who has to change his/her destination due to the limitation of space capacity of the
evacuation area; and

2.

interactions between groups and effects of grouping behavior in a crowd evacuation.

The developed models are then demonstrated to provide insight and witness the
implications in the tsunami evacuation simulation. In conjunction with that, the 3D computer
graphic movie through the Autodesk MAYA software is utilized to visualize the scenario of
the evacuation process.
In summary, the overall objectives of this research are based on two main frameworks as
follows;

1.

the modeling of the switching action behavior;

1.1 to formulate the switching action behavior in a crowd through convolution integral of
two functions;
1.2 to perform a sensitivity analysis for validation;
1.3 to simulate the evacuation process against tsunami with change in destination based on
different conjectural scenarios;
1.4 to witness the performance of the switching action behavior model on different
conjectural scenarios of the evacuation process in demonstrating the change in
destination;
1.5 to create a computer graphic movie of the simulated evacuation processes.

2.

the modeling of the grouping behavior;

2.1 to formulate in-group and out-group interactions in a crowd based on conducted
observation;
2.2 to perform validation work based on empirical data;
2.3 to simulate the evacuation process against tsunami with the grouping behavior model;
2.4 to simulate the evacuation process against tsunami without the grouping behavior
model;
2.5 to compare both simulations in 2.3 and 2.4 above;
2.6 to create a computer graphic movie of the simulated evacuation processes.

1.5 Research domain and significance

The main goals of this research are to model a mathematical computation of two different traits
in crowd behavior; the switching action behavior and grouping behavior, and reproduce the
crowd evacuation process under several conjectural scenarios by considering the
aforementioned traits. In relation to the crowd evacuation, an observation of the evacuation
process is conducted at the Langkawi International Airport (the LIA), Malaysia, as a research
background of the tsunami event. Further, from the outcomes, better plan of evacuation may be
investigated.
In this contribution, two scopes of works are presented based on two different traits in
crowd behavior. In the first scope of work, the switching action behavior model is proposed for
the CBS-DE to describe a person who has to change his/her destination due to the space
capacity limitation of the designated evacuation area. The change in the destination of a person
is determined according to the motion of other persons in the perception domain during the
defined switching action time. The switching action time is formulated in the so-called
switching action function which is described by a convolution integral of the input and unit
response functions. The newly developed switching action model is then validated through
sensitivity analysis in which the primary attention is the crowd motion and flow of switching
action behavior. In addition, a contact force acting on each person is a significant output from
the conducted simulations. Hence, to ascertain contact force acting on each person within the
safe level, simulation results are compared with the previous experimental results by Smith and
Lim (1995). Then, the potential for further applications of the CBS-DE with switching action
behavior model is demonstrated on different conjectural scenarios of the evacuation in an
attempt to simulate the evacuation process with a change in destination. In the present study, the
focal interest is the performance of the switching action model by demonstrating a change in
destination in the evacuation process.
Then, in the second scope of work, a grouping behavior model is proposed for the CBS-DE.
In a real life, a crowd contains both persons who walk alone and persons who walk in groups.
Hence, the interactions of persons should include person-to-person interactions who are in the
same group as well as group-to-group interaction. However, most of the existing crowd
behavior models have not considered the interaction between groups; in fact, crowd motions are
simulated only on the basis of interactions among isolated walking persons. Currently, limited
numbers of crowd behavior models have incorporated grouping behavior, and the impact of
grouping behavior in crowd dynamics is more to be shown. This work attempts to model

grouping behavior and subsequently simulate pedestrian grouping in a crowd simulation and
study its impact in tsunami evacuation process. For this purpose, observations and video footage
of public area are conducted as a basis of grouping behavior model development. Relying on
observations made, the existing DEM-based of the CBS-DE is extended by incorporating
grouping behavior by introducing in-group and out-group interactions. Validation on the
CBS-DE with grouping behavior model is executed in two stages work by firstly looking for a
suitable grouping scenario from the footage and secondly simulates the grouping scenario
chosen from the footage. Later, the new model is applied to the simulation of tsunami
evacuation process. The impacts of the grouping behavior model are shown from the viewpoint
of evacuation completion time by comparison with simulation using the CBS-DE without
grouping behavior model.

1.6 Thesis Outline

Figure 1.1 shows the schematic structure of this dissertation. This dissertation composed of
eight chapters. This chapter provides an overview of research works together with the problems,
objectives, and scope of research. In chapter 2, related literature contributed in the crowd
behavior and evacuation process is reviewed. A few existing crowd evacuation models are
discussed. Chapter 3 provides the fundamental of the distinct element method and mathematical
modeling in the DEM-based multi-agent of the CBS-DE. In this research, two development
works are produced by extending the existing CBS-DE by introducing two different models.
The mathematical modeling descriptions of the extended CBS-DE are presented in chapter 4.
Chapter 5 is mainly reported on the data collections and methodology employed in conducting
this research works. The research findings of the switching action behavior and grouping
behavior are presented in chapters 6 and 7, respectively. Finally, in chapter 8, the conclusions
are provided, and future works are discussed.

Figure 1.1 Thesis structure

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