Beruflich Dokumente
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AICL PA
INSURANCE
Pakistan
Coverage
BUY
Re-Initiation
Recommendation:
Current Price:
Rs73.16
Rs92
Amreen Soorani
amreen.soorani@js.com
+ 9221 111-574-111
Ext: 3099
KATS Code: AICL
Bloomberg Code: AICL PA
Reuters Code: ADIN.KA
Market Price: Rs73.16
December 2017 Target Price: Rs92
We value the Life Insurance arm, Adamjee Life Assurance Company Ltd (ALAC), a
74% owned subsidiary under relative valuation (see table) at Rs20. We believe the
segment has immense growth potential on the back of current low penetration
coupled with improving income per capita and expanding urbanization in Pakistan.
Average annual growth rate of Life Insurance has been ~27%, where insurance
penetration for Pakistan stands at a low of 0.48% with Rs664 per capita density.
Moreover, ALACs growth has remained impressive with 3-year CAGR of 65%
(2012-2015). There are a total of 35 insurance companies operating in Pakistan, out
of which seven are Life Insurance companies. The insurance business is changing
with new distribution channels such as Bancassurance, Websales & Telesales have
emerged, along with expansion of distribution channels where this would also be
applied to the life insurance business in Pakistan.
Buy
32
Portfolio Value*
46
JLCL
0.52
15
EFL
0.23
Total TP
92
IGIL
0.29
Average
0.36
19,187
Value/share (Rs)
20
Source: JS Research
chunk invested in MCB Bank (41%). We value the bank at Rs254, warranting further
appreciation in AICLs portfolio value. Other major investments are in United Bank
(6%) and DG Khan Cement (6%). The portfolio holds an attractive dividend yield of
~7%, contributing ~Rs2.60/share (after tax) to our future earnings per annum.
Gauging from past practices, we also expect consistent capital gains to the tune of
Rs2.50/share (after tax) every year.
AICL: Investm ent Portfolio
Weight
Value/share
41%
38.12
26.1
Listed shares
4%
9.68
2.6
Unlisted shares
6%
6.01
4.1
Packages Ltd
Listed shares
4%
0.98
2.3
Listed shares
4%
8.66
2.6
Listed shares
6%
6.28
3.8
Mutual Fund
4%
16.28
2.5
31%
19
Portfolio
63
30,000
20,000
15,000
2010-2015
2017F-2022F
15%
2%
9%
Net Claims
14%
0%
5%
Underwriting profit
38%
28%
16%
Investment Income
17%
25%
1%
18%
-2%
6%
23%
39%
8%
27%
39%
8%
Jubilee Gen
10,000
5,000
EFU Gen
IGI Ins.
25,000
Underwriting Profit
Others
Net Premium
Revenue
MCB Bank
No of shares
Adamjee Ins
Others
Source: IAP
revenues and 23% of the Underwriting profits pertain to operations outside Pakistan
that generate 9% margins versus 12% margins on local operations, where foreign
operations are widely concentrated in the Motor segment (56% of total Motor
segment from foreign operations).
AICL: Underwriting profits surpassing General and Admin Expenses (Rsmn)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
(200)
(400)
(600)
Underwriting profit
9M2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Fire
Marine
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Misc.
2018F
Accident
& Health
2017F
120,000
Motor
2016E
140,000
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2015A
2014A
Turnaround in core business is channeled from its Motor segment with 35% YoY
growth in Net Premium during 2015, against a decline of 4% during 2009-2014. The
segments Underwriting profit touched Rs462mn (54% of total underwriting profit)
against Rs216mn during the year 2014. We believe (1) pick up in auto financing
amid monetary easing by the State Bank of Pakistan and (2) strong growth in highend car sales are the major factors that have triggered growth in the segment.
Going forward we forecast the segments Underwriting profit to post a 5-year CAGR
of 28%, on the back of 20% YoY growth in Net Premium.
Rs356mn was accounted as dividend income and Rs1.10bn were Gain on Sale of
Investments.
9M2016: Result Review
(Rs m n)
9M2016
3Q2015 YoY%
6,879
4,806
43%
2,515
2,046
23%
Net claims
4,204
2,855
47%
1,622
1,250
30%
Expenses
1,204
970
24%
403
395
2%
Net commission
593
337
76%
201
170
18%
878
645
36%
289
231
25%
Investment income
2,819
2,004
41%
1,452
509
185%
Rental income
52%
-6%
Other income
135
77
75%
24
25
-4%
420
357
18%
148
131
13%
-79%
(1)
-325%
68
48
12
170%
624
155%
3
3,350
43%
32
NM
2,329
44%
1,588
NM
516
94
449%
229
43
433%
2,834
2,235
27%
1,359
581
134%
8.10
6.39
27%
3.88
1.66
134%
Page 4
2014A
2015A
2016E
2017F
2018F
6,302
7,748
9,209
10,419
11,562
Net Claims
4,088
4,780
5,581
6,162
6,627
369
853
1,234
1,475
1,762
Investment Income
2,061
2,404
4,007
2,687
2,769
485
571
604
639
676
2,031
2,825
4,647
3,561
3,892
1,880
2,554
3,718
2,492
2,724
2014A
2015A
2016E
2017F
2018F
Paid up Capital
3,500
3,500
3,500
3,500
3,500
Reserves
1,395
1,437
1,437
1,437
1,437
Retained earnings
9,209
10,710
12,940
14,470
16,145
Total Equity
14,104
15,646
17,877
19,407
21,081
5,706
5,773
5,773
5,773
5,773
5,270
5,929
5,929
5,929
5,929
Other liabilities
3,751
4,907
5,010
5,118
5,231
Total Liabilities
14,727
16,609
16,712
16,820
16,933
Investments
13,482
15,393
15,393
15,393
15,393
3,627
4,539
4,630
4,722
4,817
Other Assets
11,721
12,323
14,566
16,111
17,804
Total Assets
28,830
32,255
34,588
36,226
38,014
Ratio Analysis
2014A
2015A
2016E
2017F
2018F
EPS (Rs)
5.37
7.30
10.62
7.12
7.78
DPS (Rs)
2.25
3.00
4.25
2.75
3.00
40.30
44.70
51.08
55.45
60.23
PER (x)
7.46
6.59
6.89
10.27
9.40
P/BV (x)
0.99
1.08
1.43
1.32
1.21
BVPS (Rs)
Dividend Yield
ROE
Underw riting Profit Margin
Investment / Total Assets (x)
6%
6%
6%
4%
4%
13%
16%
21%
13%
13%
6%
11%
13%
14%
15%
0.48
0.45
0.42
0.40
0.47
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