Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Summary
Gartner's top 10 trends will drive the future of the intelligent digital mesh.
Enterprise architecture and technology innovation leaders must prepare
for the impacts of these disruptive trends on people, businesses and IT
departments, and determine how they can provide competitive
advantage.
Overview
Key Findings
Recommendations
Enterprise architecture and technology innovation leaders using enterprise
architecture to master emerging and strategic trends must:
Plan for a radical, long-term (2020 to 2025) evolution of the user
experience for both customers and employees as conversational
systems, augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and continuous/
contextual user experiences radically change the way people interact
with systems.
Explore opportunities to create new systems that require AI and
machine learning, and showcase their intelligent feature systems (such
as virtual personal assistants [VPAs], robots and autonomous vehicles),
and augment existing apps and things (for example, customer service,
enterprise applications, consumer electronics and medical devices).
Examine specific, targeted and high-value use cases to apply AR/VR,
build digital twins to support IoT initiatives, and embrace blockchains
and distributed ledgers in 2017 to 2019.
Build a security mindset into application design and operations, while
augmenting preventive controls and security monitoring with user and
entity behavior analytics.
Table of Contents
Analysis
Trend No. 1: Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Machine
Learning
Figures
Analysis
Digital business is an overarching theme that covers how the blurring of the
physical and virtual worlds is transforming business designs, industries,
markets and organizations. The continuing digital business evolution exploits
new digital models to align more closely the physical and digital worlds for
employees, partners and customers. Technology will be embedded in
everything in the digital business of the future. Rich digital services will be
delivered to everything, and intelligence will be embedded in everything
behind the scenes. We call this mesh of people, devices, content and
services the intelligent digital mesh . It's enabled by digital models, business
platforms and a rich intelligent set of services to support digital business. As
an enterprise architecture or technology innovation leader seeking to exploit
the intelligent digital mesh, you must respond to the disruptive technology
trends enabling this future.
Our top 10 strategic technology trends include three groupings of
complementary trends (see Figure 1) that are mutually reinforcing, with
amplified disruptive characteristics:
The intelligent theme builds on the way in which data science and
programming approaches are evolving to include AI and advanced
machine learning. This is enabling the creation of intelligent physical
and software-based systems that are programmed to learn and adapt,
rather than programmed only for a finite set of prescribed actions. AI
and machine-learning capabilities are seeping into virtually every
technology, and represent a major battleground for technology
providers over the next five years.
The digital theme focuses on blending the digital and physical worlds
to create an immersive, digitally enhanced environment. In the digitally
enhanced mesh, the digital world is an increasingly detailed
representation of the physical world. Rich digital services, connections
and interfaces connect the two. Digital trends, along with opportunities
enabled by AI and machine learning, are driving the next generation of
digital business.
The mesh theme refers to exploiting connections between an
expanding set of people and businesses, as well as devices, content
and services, to deliver digital business outcomes. The mesh demands
new interface modalities (for example, conversational interfaces),
security models, technology platforms and approaches to solution
design.
Strategic technology trends have substantial disruptive potential. Our top 10
list highlights strategic trends with broad industry impact that aren't yet widely
recognized. Technologies related to the strategic trends are experiencing
Through machine learning, a smart machine can change its future behavior.
For example, by analyzing vast databases of medical case histories,
"learning" machines can reveal insights in treatment effectiveness. They can
apply such insights at the speed of data ingestion, making them useful
augmenters of productivity and accuracy. In scenarios involving high
precision, a smart machine using intelligent ensemble techniques can
achieve a reduction in error rates of 5% to 30%, or even more, which may
result in substantial cost savings or extra profits. Additionally, naturallanguage generation dynamically increases the volume and value of insights
and context in data analytics. It automatically generates a specialized
narrative for each user in context, to explain meaning or highlight key findings
in data.
VPAs such as Google Now, Microsoft's Cortana and Apple's Siri are
becoming smarter and are a rapidly maturing type of intelligent app. Some
chatbots, such as Facebook Messenger chatbots, can be powered by AI (for
example, Wit.ai) to deliver an intelligent app. These intelligent apps feed into
the system trend to create a new intelligent intermediary layer between
people and systems. If you're an early adopter or seeking to drive disruptive
innovation, begin to implement targeted VCAs and VPAs where a high-value
target persona (for example, a doctor, marketing leader or high-profit
customer) could achieve significant benefit. If you're a mainstream user or
have more modest innovation goals, consider more simple rule-based
chatbots and exploit prepackaged assistants or simple mobile assistants
based on the VPA capabilities embedded in smartphones.
Packaged app and service providers are increasingly using AI and machinelearning techniques to deliver more robust systems. For example, many user
and entity behavior analytics products use these techniques to identify
patterns of potentially malicious activity. For some time, many enterprise
application vendors have been incorporating predictive analytics capabilities
into their offerings, either directly or through partners. As the focus on AI
increases, vendors such as Salesforce, Oracle and Microsoft are
incorporating more advanced AI functions in their offerings. These three
vendors are exploiting AI to varying degrees, but they are all focusing on
sales and marketing activities as a particularly valuable area for applying AI
techniques to analyze customer and third-party data. Expect AI to become the
next major battleground in a wide range of software and service markets,
including aspects of ERP. Much hype will surround AI, so examine how and
where AI is applied and what concrete business results it can deliver. Expect
app and service providers to apply AI techniques in three areas:
Advanced analytics
Increasingly autonomous agents
Continuous and conversational interfaces
Expect an expanding market for models as a service. Predefined models that
have been taught about a particular domain and trained to identify key
patterns will be delivered as a service (often with a data feed) for
incorporation into other packaged or custom applications.
During the next two to five years, we expect that B2C and B2B-to-consumer
companies will adopt more smart app strategies (see "Hype Cycle for Smart
Machines, 2016" ). By 2018, we expect that most of the world's largest 200
companies will exploit intelligent apps and use the full toolkit of big data and
analytical tools to refine their offerings and improve their customer
experience. Discover the many different types of intelligent apps that could be
created with a focus on specialization and purpose. Customers may use one
or a combination of intelligent apps. For example, customers may use an
intelligent app to:
Help with health (diet, exercise or psychological well-being)
Act as a personal shopping assistant
ensuring that equipment looks and behaves as though real. Using VR,
employees can train for many equipment use scenarios, including ones, such
as catastrophic malfunction, that don't happen often, but that need immediate
attention. Businesses are also using VR for site inspections. VisualSpection
provides VR headgear that allows inspection teams in the field to improve
efficiency by 30%.
AR, which vendors are also marketing as mixed reality, is the best way to
blend the real and virtual worlds. Using see-through displays, an AR device
can track and overlay graphics onto real-world objects. Business provides the
first use cases. They include DHL's use of wearables and AR in a warehouse
to achieve a 25% improvement in the picking process. 3 Our research has
found that 11% of organizations are already using AR, and 13% are piloting it.
4
warehouse that can not only recognize the presence of workers, but also help
them understand the state of its equipment, and can visually point out areas
needing attention. Although the potential of VR and AR is impressive, there
will be many challenges and roadblocks.
Identify key target personas and explore digital mesh scenarios. For example,
explore the needs of, and business value for, a target user in different
settings, such as at home, in a car, at work, with a customer or traveling.
Related research:
"Market Guide for Augmented Reality"
"Forecast Snapshot: Wearable Gesture Devices, Worldwide, 2016
Update"
"Top 10 Wearable Technologies and Capabilities in 2017 and 2018"
"Virtual Reality: What Marketers Need to Know Now"
"What's Hot in Digital Commerce Marketing, 2016"
"The First Three Steps in Evaluating the Role of Head-Mounted
Displays for Field Service"
I/O = input/output
The shifting user experience will create many new digital business
opportunities, but will also pose significant IT security and management
challenges. The realization of the continuous, immersive and conversational
user experience will require a profoundly better appreciation of privacy and
permission. Missteps by some organizations will probably lead to regulation
that will affect everyone.
Related research:
"Smart Agents Will Drive the Switch From Technology-Literate People,
to People-Literate Technology"
"Hype Cycle for Human-Machine Interface, 2016"
"How User Experience Can Make or Break Your Customer Experience"
"Conversational AI to Shake Up Your Technical and Business Worlds"
"Forecast Snapshot: VPA-Enabled Wireless Speakers, Worldwide,
2016"
"Smartphones, Tablets and Things It's Time to Integrate Your Mobile
and IoT Strategies"
nature, an IoT system can consist of a myriad of protocols up and down the
stack (see "IoT Communications Architecture Demystified" ). The CAP's NLP
capabilities provide an abstraction that can potentially ease cross-protocol
communication issues. The CAP's AI capabilities enable it to learn from data
ingested from individual objects over time. This provides more value to the
overall IoT system and can accelerate digital-twin efforts.
Similarly, the CAP benefits from the IoT platform in several ways. The IoT
platform provides the underlying infrastructure that facilitates communication
and action among users, objects and applications. The IoT platform enables
the CAP to reach out not only to apps, but also to individual objects and
systems (and their associated data and analytics). The IoT provides data
from more sources (input), as well as potential actions that affect the physical
world (output). This allows for a richer CAP experience for the user, with more
opportunities for automation and efficiency.
Technology providers are already starting to experiment with the symbiotic
relationship between the CAP and IoT-related platform services. In its August
2016 update, Microsoft's Skype division added the "If This Then That" (IFTTT)
bot to its bot directory. 6 It can interact with more than 50 different types of IoT
devices, ranging from cars to wearables to connected home devices.
Related research:
"Building a Digital Business Technology Platform"
"The Platform Architect's Guide to Designing IoT Solutions"
"Market Guide for IoT Platforms"
"Cool Vendors in the Internet of Things, 2016"
"Use the IoT Platform Reference Model to Plan Your IoT Business
Solutions"
"Conversational AI to Shake Up Your Technical and Business Worlds"
DAP = database audit and protection; DLP = data loss prevention; SIEM =
security information and event management
Source: Gartner (October 2016)
factory" models of multiple linked digital twins. Digital twins of assets will be
linked to other digital entities for people (digital personas), processes (law
enforcement) and spaces (digital cities). Understanding the links across these
digital entities, isolating elements where needed and tracking interactions will
be vital to support a secure digital environment.
A number of factors can help secure the IoT environment. Ensure that device
hardware and software are resistant to attacks and are secure (for example,
by implementing secure software updates). Secure all access and
communication channels with appropriate access control, authentication or
encryption, and closely monitor API access to systems, particularly where
these APIs are intentionally opened for outside entities. Use established
security technologies as a baseline to secure IoT platforms. Monitor user and
entity behavior, particularly in IoT scenarios. Implement sufficient security
monitoring and management practices for edge devices, including secure
updates. However, the IoT edge is a new frontier for many IT security
professionals, creating new vulnerability areas. It often requires new
remediation tools and processes that must be factored into IoT platform
efforts.
Related research:
"The Fast-Evolving State of Security Analytics, 2016"
"CISOs Need to Understand the Components of Their Information
Security Programs"
"Market Guide for User and Entity Behavior Analytics"
"Best Practices and Success Stories for User Behavior Analytics"
"Hype Cycle for Application Security, 2016"
"A Primer for Building Resilience and Security Into Internet of Things
Solution Architecture"
"DevSecOps: How to Seamlessly Integrate Security Into DevOps"
Reference:
https://www.gartner.com/doc/3471559?
refval=&pcp=mpe#-70561582
Evidence
1 N.
2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction and
distribution of this publication in any form without prior written permission is
forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources
believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy,
completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartners research may
discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does
not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or
used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in
the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions
expressed herein are subject to change without notice.