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INTRODUCTION

In the 1960's, Edward I. Altman developed the Bankruptcy Predictor Model, or Z-Score test.
The Z-Score Test lets you use statistical techniques to predict the likelihood of bankruptcy within the next
two years. Dr. Altman's test was developed using 66 companies, 33 failed and 33 successful. The test
achieved an accuracy rate of 95%.
The financial ratios come directly from a company's financial statements. Caution -- This prediction
model is a tool for analysts, and is not meant to replace seasoned judgment.It will help an analyst
determine whether further review may be necessary, and can be calculated over a number or years to
determine whether the trend is downward -- if so, corrective action may enable the company to survive.

METHODOLOGY

Input the information from the company's financial statements into the highlighted cells of the 'Calculator'
worksheet. The worksheet will calculate the Z-Score automatically.
Then, compare your results to the standards shown in the bottom section of the 'Calculator' worksheet.

INPUTS

User -- complete highlighted fie


Operating income (income
Net sales
before interest
and tazes
-- EBIT)

Income statement

Balance sheet

Current assets
Total assets
Current liabilities
Total liabilities
Retained earnings

Market value

Market value of equity

CALCULATION
Amount
EBIT / Total assets

0.0726214905

Net sales / Total assets

2.1094557254

Market value of equity / Total liabilities

0.0911424223

Working capital / Total assets

0.1488742763

Retained earnings / Total assets

0.011923195

RESULTS AND INTERPRETATION


Your company's Z-Score
Interpretation
Z-Score above 3.0 Company is financial sound
Z-Score between 2.7 and 2.99 Company needs to exercise caution
Z-Score between 1.8 and 2.7 Likely to go bankrupt within 2 years
Z-Score below 1.8 Likelihood of bankruptcy is very high

2.60

or Z-Score test.
of bankruptcy within the next
d 33 successful. The test

aution -- This prediction


.It will help an analyst
over a number or years to
able the company to survive.

lighted cells of the 'Calculator'


the 'Calculator' worksheet.

User -- complete highlighted fields

ting income (income


Net sales
e interest
and tazes
-- EBIT)

Current assets

9550.16
328.78
4413

Total assets

4527.31

urrent liabilities

3739

Total liabilities

4527.31

etained earnings

53.98

ket value of equity

412.63

Factor

Result

3.3

0.24

0.999

2.11

0.6

0.05

1.2

0.18

1.4

0.02

2.60

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