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In the 1960's, Edward I. Altman developed the Bankruptcy Predictor Model, or Z-Score test.
The Z-Score Test lets you use statistical techniques to predict the likelihood of bankruptcy within the next
two years. Dr. Altman's test was developed using 66 companies, 33 failed and 33 successful. The test
achieved an accuracy rate of 95%.
The financial ratios come directly from a company's financial statements. Caution -- This prediction
model is a tool for analysts, and is not meant to replace seasoned judgment.It will help an analyst
determine whether further review may be necessary, and can be calculated over a number or years to
determine whether the trend is downward -- if so, corrective action may enable the company to survive.
METHODOLOGY
Input the information from the company's financial statements into the highlighted cells of the 'Calculator'
worksheet. The worksheet will calculate the Z-Score automatically.
Then, compare your results to the standards shown in the bottom section of the 'Calculator' worksheet.
INPUTS
Income statement
Balance sheet
Current assets
Total assets
Current liabilities
Total liabilities
Retained earnings
Market value
CALCULATION
Amount
EBIT / Total assets
0.0726214905
2.1094557254
0.0911424223
0.1488742763
0.011923195
2.60
or Z-Score test.
of bankruptcy within the next
d 33 successful. The test
Current assets
9550.16
328.78
4413
Total assets
4527.31
urrent liabilities
3739
Total liabilities
4527.31
etained earnings
53.98
412.63
Factor
Result
3.3
0.24
0.999
2.11
0.6
0.05
1.2
0.18
1.4
0.02
2.60