Brexit

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For the 2016 Brexit referendum, see United Kingdom European Union membership referendum,
2016.
For other uses, see Brexit (disambiguation).
The United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union is widely known as Brexit,
a portmanteau of "British exit". Following a referendum held in June 2016, in which 52% of votes
were cast in favour of leaving the EU, the UK government intends to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty
on European Union, the formal procedure for withdrawing, by the end of March 2017. This, within the
treaty terms, would put the UK on a course to leave the EU by March 2019. Prime Minister Theresa
May, elected in the wake of the referendum, has promised a bill to remove the European
Communities Act 1972 from the Statute Book and to incorporate existing EU laws into UK domestic
law. The terms of withdrawal have not yet been negotiated; in the meantime, the UK remains a full
member of the European Union.
[1]

[2]

The UK joined the European Economic Community (EEC), a predecessor of the EU, in 1973, and
confirmed its membership in a 1975 referendum by 67% of the votes. Historical opinion polls 19732015 tended to reveal majorities in favour of remaining in the EEC, EC or EU. In the 1970s and
1980s, withdrawal from the EEC was advocated mainly by some Labour Party and trade
union figures. From the 1990s, withdrawal from the EU was advocated mainly by
some Conservatives and by the newly founded UK Independence Party (UKIP).
Contents
[hide]

1The term "Brexit"

2Historical background
o

2.1Founding of the EEC in 1957 and British applications for membership

2.21975 referendum

2.3Between referendums

2.4Euroscepticism

32016 referendum
o

3.1Negotiations for EU Reform

3.2Campaign groups

3.3Referendum result

3.4Political effects

4"Article 50" and the procedure for leaving the EU

o

4.1Advisory status of the referendum

4.2Article 50

4.3Invoking Article 50

4.4Need for parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50

4.4.1Legal challenge: Article 50 ("Brexit") case

4.5"Great Repeal Bill"

4.6Negotiating positions

5Consequences of withdrawal for the UK

o

5.1Relationship with remaining EU members

5.2Immigration

5.3Economic effects

5.4Scotland, London, and Gibraltar

5.5Borders with the Republic of Ireland and France

6Consequences of withdrawal for the EU

7Comparison with the 2016 US Presidential Election

8See also

9Notes

10References

11Further reading

12External links

The term "Brexit".

Brexit (like its early variant, Brixit) is a portmanteau of "Britain" and "exit". It was derived by analogy
from Grexit, referring to a hypothetical withdrawal of Greece from the eurozone (and possibly also
the EU). The term Brexit may have first been used in reference to a possible UK withdrawal from
the EU by Peter Wilding in a Euractiv blog post on 15 May 2012. The terms "hard Brexit" and "soft
Brexit" are much used unofficially, and are understood to describe the prospective relationship
between the UK and the EU after withdrawal, ranging from hard, that could involve the UK trading
with the EU like any other non-EU-member country under World Trade Organisation rules but with
no obligation to accept free movement of people, to soft, that might involve retaining membership of
the EU single market for goods and services and at least some free movement of people, according
to European Economic Area rules.
[3]

[4]

[5][6]

[7]

[8]

Historical background[.]
See also: Euroscepticism in the United Kingdom
Opinion polls taken after EU accession in 1973 until the end of 2015 generally revealed popular
British support for EEC or EU membership. Similarly, in the United Kingdom European
[9]

Communities membership referendum of 1975, two thirds of British voters favoured membership. A
clear exception was the year 1980, the first full year of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's term of
office, when the highest ever rejection of membership was measured, with 65% opposed to and 26%
in favour of membership. After Thatcher had negotiated a rebate of British membership payments in
1984, those favouring the EEC maintained a lead in the opinion polls, except during 2000, as Prime
Minister Tony Blair aimed for closer EU integration including adoption of the euro currency, and
around 2011, as immigration into the United Kingdom became increasingly noticeable. As late as
December 2015 there was, according to ComRes, a clear majority in favour of remaining in the EU,
albeit with a warning that voter intentions would be considerably influenced by the outcome of Prime
Minister David Cameron's ongoing EU reform negotiations, especially with regards to the two issues
of "safeguards for non-Eurozone member states" and "immigration". The following events are
relevant.
[9]

[9]

[10]

Founding of the EEC in 1957 and British applications for membership [.]
The UK was not a signatory to the Treaty of Rome which created the EEC in 1957. The country
subsequently applied to join the organisation in 1963 and again in 1967, but both applications were
vetoed by the President of France, Charles de Gaulle, who said that "a number of aspects of
Britain's economy, from working practices to agriculture" had "made Britain incompatible with
Europe" and that Britain harboured a "deep-seated hostility" to any pan-European project. Once de
Gaulle had relinquished the French presidency in 1969, the UK made a third and successful
application for membership. The question of sovereignty had been discussed at the time in an
official Foreign and Commonwealth Office document (FCO 30/1048) that became open to the public
in January 2002 under the rules for availability after thirty years. It listed among "Areas of policy in
which parliamentary freedom to legislate will be affected by entry into the European Communities":
Customs duties, Agriculture, Free movement of labour, services and capital, Transport, and Social
Security for migrant workers. The document concluded (paragraph 26) that it was advisable to put
the considerations of influence and power before those of formal sovereignty. The Treaty of
Accession was signed in January 1972 by the prime minister Edward Heath, leader of
the Conservative party. Parliament's European Communities Act 1972 was enacted on 17 October
and the UK's instrument of ratification was deposited the next day (18 October), letting the United
Kingdom's membership of the EEC, or "Common Market", come into effect on 1 January 1973. The
opposition Labour Party, led by Harold Wilson, contested the October 1974 general election with a
commitment to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership of the EEC and then hold a referendum on
whether to remain in the EEC on the new terms.
[11]

[12]

[13]

[14]

[15]

[16]

1975 referendum[.]
Main article: United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum, 1975
In 1975, the United Kingdom held a referendum on whether the UK should remain in the EEC. All of
the major political parties and mainstream press supported continuing membership of the EEC.
However, there were significant divides within the ruling Labour party, the membership of which had
voted 2:1 in favour of withdrawal at a one-day party conference on 26 April 1974. Since the cabinet
was split between strongly pro-European and strongly anti-European ministers, Harold
Wilson suspended the constitutional convention of Cabinet collective responsibility and allowed
ministers to publicly campaign on either side. Seven of the twenty-three members of the cabinet
opposed EEC membership.
[17]

On 5 June 1975, the electorate were asked to vote yes or no on the question: "Do you think the UK
should stay in the European Community (Common Market)?" Every administrative county in the UK
had a majority of "Yes", except the Shetland Islands and the Outer Hebrides. With a turnout of 64%,
the outcome of the vote was 67.2% in favour of staying in, and the United Kingdom remained a
member of the EEC.
[18]

Between referendums[.]

In 1979 the United Kingdom opted out of the newly formed European Exchange Rate
Mechanism (ERM) which was the precursor to the creation of the euro.
The opposition Labour Party campaigned in the 1983 general election on a commitment to withdraw
from the EEC without a referendum. It was heavily defeated as the Conservative government
of Margaret Thatcher was re-elected. The Labour Party subsequently changed its policy.
[19]

[19]

In 1985 the United Kingdom ratified the Single European Act, the first major revision to the Treaty of
Rome without a referendum with the full support HM Government of Margaret Thatcher.
In October 1990 - despite the deep reservations of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher but under
pressure from her senior ministers - the United Kingdom joined the ERM with the pound
sterling pegged to the deutschmark. In November 1990 Thatcher resigned as Prime Minister amid
internal divisions within the Conservative Party arising partly from her increasingly Eurosceptic
views. In September 1992 the United Kingdom was forced to withdraw from the ERM after the pound
sterling came under pressure from currency speculators (an episode known as Black Wednesday).
The resulting cost to UK taxpayers was estimated to be in excess of 3 billion.
[20][21]

As a result of the Maastricht Treaty, the EEC became the European Union on 1 November 1993.
The new name reflected the evolution of the organisation from an economic union into a political
union. As a result of the Lisbon Treaty, which entered into force on 1 December 2009, the
Maastricht Treaty is now known, in updated form as, the Treaty on European Union (2007) or TEU,
and the Treaty of Rome is now known, in updated form, as the Treaty on the Functioning of the
European Union (2007) or TFEU.
[22]

[23]

The Referendum Party was formed in 1994 by Sir James Goldsmith to contest the 1997 general
election on a platform of providing a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU. It fielded
candidates in 547 constituencies at that election and won 810,860 votes, 2.6% of total votes cast. It
failed to win a single parliamentary seat as its vote was spread out, losing its deposit (funded by
Goldsmith) in 505 constituencies.
[24]

[25]

[25]

The UK Independence Party (UKIP), a Eurosceptic political party, was also formed, in 1993. It
achieved third place in the UK during the 2004 European elections, second place in the 2009
European elections and first place in the 2014 European elections, with 27.5% of the total vote. This
was the first time since the 1910 general election that any party other than the Labour or
Conservative parties had taken the largest share of the vote in a nationwide election.
[26]

In 2014, UKIP won two by-elections, triggered when the sitting Conservative MPs defected to UKIP
and then resigned. These were their first elected MPs. At the 2015 general election UKIP took 12.6%
of the total vote and held one of the two seats won in 2014.
[27]

Euroscepticism[.]
Euroscepticism is the criticism of and strong opposition to the European Union.
Euroscepticism has been increasing according to the NatCen Social Research and its British Social
Attitudes (BSA) survey. Since 1983, the BSA survey has been collecting opinions in Europe whether
UK should remain or withdraw in the European Union. In 1990's, the BSA survey offered various
choices to the respondents for the Britain's relationship with the European Union.
1. to withdraw in EU
2. to remain in EU and attempt to diminish the EU's power
3. to leave things as they are
4. to stay in EU and try to broaden the EU's power

5. to work for the formation of a single European government

22% of the respondents agree of option 1 and 43% of option 2. Along with 65% who either desire to
break ties or decrease the EU's legislative influence and only 38% support both option 1 and 2. The
Euroscepticism has been increasing since 1993.
[28]

2016 referendum[.]
Main article: United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016
See also: Aftermath of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

Negotiations for EU Reform[.]

In 2012, Prime Minister David Cameron rejected calls for a referendum on the UK's EU membership,
but suggested the possibility of a future referendum to gauge public support.
According to the
BBC, "The prime minister acknowledged the need to ensure the UK's position within the European
Union had 'the full-hearted support of the British people' but they needed to show 'tactical and
strategic patience'."
[29][30]

[31]

Under pressure from many of his MPs and from the rise of UKIP, in January 2013, Cameron
announced that a Conservative government would hold an inout referendum on EU membership
before the end of 2017, on a renegotiated package, if elected in 2015.
[32]

The Conservative Party unexpectedly won the 2015 general election with a majority. Soon
afterwards the European Union Referendum Act 2015 was introduced into Parliament to enable the
referendum. Cameron favoured remaining in a reformed European Union and sought to renegotiate
on four key points: protection of the single market for non-eurozone countries, reduction of "red
tape", exempting Britain from "ever-closer union", and restricting EU immigration.
[33]

The outcome of the renegotiations was announced in February 2016. Some limits to in-work benefits
for new EU immigrants were agreed, but before they could be applied, a country such as the UK
would have to get permission from the European Commission and then from the European Council.

[34]

In a speech to the House of Commons on 22 February 2016, Cameron announced a referendum

date of 23 June 2016 and commented on the renegotiation settlement. Cameron spoke of an
intention to trigger the Article 50 process immediately following a leave vote and of the "two-year
time period to negotiate the arrangements for exit."
[35]

[36]

Campaign groups[.]
Main article: Campaigning in the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016
The official campaign group for leaving the EU was Vote Leave. Other major campaign groups
included Leave.EU, Grassroots Out, Get Britain Out and Better Off Out.
[37]

[38]

[39]

The official campaign to stay in the EU, chaired by Stuart Rose, was known as Britain Stronger in
Europe, or informally as Remain. Other campaigns supporting remaining in the EU included
Conservatives In, Labour in for Britain, #INtogether (Liberal Democrats), Greens for a Better
Europe, Scientists for EU, Environmentalists For Europe, Universities for Europe and Another
Europe is Possible.
[40]

[41]

[43]

[44]

[42]

[45]

[46]

[47]

Referendum result[.]
Main article: Results of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016
The result was announced on the morning of 24 June: 51.9% voted in favour of leaving the
European Union and 48.1% voted in favour of remaining a member of the European Union.
Comprehensive results are available from the UK Electoral Commission Referendum Results site.
[48]

[49]

A petition calling for a second referendum attracted more than four million signatures,
rejected by the government on 9 July.

[50][51]

but was

[52]

United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

Choice

Votes

Leave the European Union

17,410,742

51.89

Remain a member of the European Union

16,141,241

48.11

Valid votes

33,551,983

99.92

25,359

0.08

Total votes

33,577,342

100.00

Registered voters and turnout

46,500,001

72.21

Voting age population and turnout

51,356,768

65.38

Invalid or blank votes

Source: Electoral Commission[53]; UNDESA (UK VAP); US Census Bureau (Gibraltar VAP)

Political effects[.]
After the result was declared, Cameron announced that he would resign by October. In the event,
he stood down on 13 July, with Theresa May becoming Prime Minister. George Osborne was
replaced as Chancellor of the Exchequer by Philip Hammond, Former Mayor of London Boris
Johnson was appointed Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, and David
Davis became Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn lost
a vote of confidence among his parliamentary party and a leadership challenge was launched, while
on 4 July, Nigel Farage announced his resignation as head of UKIP.
[54]

[55]

Outside the UK many Eurosceptic leaders celebrated and expected others to follow the UK example.
The right-wing Dutch populist Geert Wilders said that the Netherlands should follow Britain's
example and hold a referendum on whether the Netherlands should stay in the European Union.
However, opinion polls in the fortnight following the British referendum show that the immediate
reaction in the Netherlands and other European countries was a decline in support for Eurosceptic
movements.
[56]

[57]

A week after the referendum, Gordon Brown, a former Labour Party leader and the Prime Minister
who had signed the Lisbon Treaty in 2007, warned of a danger that in the next decade the country
would be refighting the referendum. He wrote that remainers were feeling they must be pessimists to
prove that Brexit is unmanageable without catastrophe, while leavers optimistically claim economic
risks are exaggerated.
[58]

The previous leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister (19972007), Tony Blair, in October
2016 called for a second referendum, a decision through parliament or a general election to decide
finally if Britain should leave the EU. Former leader of the Conservative Party and Prime
Minister John Major (1990 to 1997) argued in November 2016 that parliament will have to ratify
[59]

whatever deal is negotiated and then, depending on the deal there could be a case for a second
referendum.
[60]

"Article 50" and the procedure for leaving the EU[.]

Main article: United Kingdom invocation of Article 50

Advisory status of the referendum[.]

As was the case with the 1975 referendum, the 2016 referendum did not directly require the
government to do anything in particular. It does not require the government to initiate, or even
schedule, the Article 50 procedure. The UK government stated that they would expect a leave vote
to be followed by withdrawal, not by a second vote. In a leaflet sent out before the referendum, the
UK government stated "This is your decision. The Government will implement what you
decide." Although Cameron stated during the campaign that he would invoke Article 50 straight
away in the event of a leave victory, he refused to allow the Civil Service to make any contingency
plans, something the Foreign Affairs Select Committee later described as "an act of gross
negligence." Following the referendum result Cameron announced before the Conservative Party
conference that he would resign by October, and that it would be for the incoming Prime Minister to
invoke Article 50. Quoting the ex-Prime Minister's media release on the UK government's web
portal, gov.uk:
[61]

[62]

[63]

[64]

[65]

[66]

A negotiation with the European Union will need to begin under a new Prime Minister, and I think it is
right that this new Prime Minister takes the decision about when to trigger Article 50 and start the
formal and legal process of leaving the EU.
David Cameron, "EU referendum outcome: PM statement, 24 June 2016". gov.uk. Retrieved 25
June2016.
In the legal case over who has the power to give a notification under Article 50, the Secretary of
State did not contend that the Referendum Act 2015 supplied a statutory power for the Crown to give
notice under Article 50. The Court observed that he was right not to do so, because any argument
to that effect would have been untenable as a matter of statutory interpretation of the 2015 Act and
stated:
[67]

[68]

... a referendum on any topic can only be advisory for the lawmakers in Parliament unless very clear
language to the contrary is in the referendum legislation in question. No such language is used in the
2015 Referendum Act. Further, the 2015 Referendum Act was passed against a background
including a clear briefing paper to parliamentarians explaining that the referendum would have
advisory effect only.
Miller and Santos v. Secretary of State [2016] EWHC 2768 (Admin), para. 105-6

[69]

Article 50[.]
Since the Lisbon Treaty came into effect in December 2009, the process of withdrawal from the
European Union has been governed by Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. No member
state has ever left the EU. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union provides an invocation
procedure whereby a member can notify the European Council and there is a negotiation period of
up to two years, after which the treaties cease to apply - although a leaving agreement may be
agreed by qualified majority voting. Unless the Council of the European Union unanimously agrees
to extensions, the timing for the UK leaving under the article is two years from when the country
gives official notice to the EU. The assumption is that new agreements will be negotiated during the
two-year window, but there is no legal requirement that agreements have to be made. Some
aspects, such as new trade agreements, may be difficult to negotiate until after the UK has formally
[a]

[70]

[71]

left the EU. Under Article 50, the withdrawal must be in accordance with the member state's
constitution, and uncertainty exists as to the constitutional requirements in the UK.
[72]

An EU Parliament motion passed on 28 June 2016 called for the UK immediately to trigger Article 50
and start the exit process. There is no mechanism allowing the EU to invoke the article. As long
as the UK Government has not invoked Article 50, the UK stays a member of the EU; must continue
to fulfil all EU-related treaties, including possible future agreements; and should legally be treated as
a member. The EU has no framework to exclude the UK as long as Article 50 is not invoked, and the
UK does not violate EU laws. However, if the UK were to breach EU law significantly, there are
legal provisions to allow the EU to cancel membership of a state that breaches fundamental EU
principles, a test that is hard to pass. These do not allow forced cancellation of membership, only
denial of rights such as free trade, free movement and voting rights.
[73]

[74]

[75][76]

[77]

Alan Renwick of the Constitution Unit of University College London argues that Article 50
negotiations cannot be used to renegotiate the conditions of future membership and that Article 50
does not provide the legal basis of withdrawing a decision to leave.
[61]

On the other hand, the constitutional lawyer and retired German Supreme Court judge Udo Di
Fabio has stated that
[78]

The Lisbon Treaty does not forbid an exiting country to withdraw its application for leaving,
because the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties prescribes an initial notification
procedure, a kind of period of notice. Before a contract under international law [such as the
Lisbon Treaty], which had been agreed without specifying details of giving notice, can be
effectively cancelled, it is required that the intention to do so is expressed 12 months in advance:
in this matter there exists the principle of preserving existing agreements and international
organisations. In this light, the declaration of the intention to leave would itself be, under EU law,
not a notice of cancellation.

Separate negotiations of the EU institutions with pro-EU regions [London, Scotland or

Northern Ireland] would constitute a violation of the Lisbon Treaty, according to which the
integrity of a member country is explicitly put under protection.

A February 2016 briefing note for the European Parliament stated that a withdrawal from the EU
ends, from then on, the application of the EU Treaties in the withdrawing state, although any national
acts previously adopted for implementing or transposing EU law would remain valid until amended or
repealed, and a withdrawal agreement would need to deal with phasing-out EU financial
programmes. The note mentions that a member withdrawing from the EU would need to enact its
own new legislation in any field of exclusive EU competence, and that complete isolation of a
withdrawing state would be impossible if there is to be a future relationship between the former
member and the EU, but that a withdrawal agreement could have transitional provisions for rights
deriving from EU citizenship and other rights deriving from EU law that the withdrawal would
otherwise extinguish. The Common Fisheries Policy is one of the exclusive competences reserved
for the European Union; others concern customs union, competition rules, monetary policy and
concluding international agreements.
[79]

[80]

Invoking Article 50[.]

Immediately after the referendum, Cameron declared his belief that the next Prime Minister should
activate Article 50 and begin negotiations with the EU. During a 27 June 2016 meeting, the Cabinet
decided to establish a unit of civil servants, headed by senior Conservative Oliver Letwin, who would
proceed with "intensive work on the issues that will need to be worked through in order to present
options and advice to a new Prime Minister and a new Cabinet".
[81]

[82]

Prime Minister Theresa May made it clear that discussions with the EU would not start in 2016. "I
want to work with ... the European council in a constructive spirit to make this a sensible and orderly

departure." she said. "All of us will need time to prepare for these negotiations and the United
Kingdom will not invoke article 50 until our objectives are clear." In a joint press conference with May
on 20 July, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel supported the UK's position in this respect: "We all
have an interest in this matter being carefully prepared, positions being clearly defined and
delineated. I think it is absolutely necessary to have a certain time to prepare for that."
[83]

In October 2016 the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced that the government would trigger
Article 50 by "the first quarter of 2017".
[84]

Need for parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50 [.]

Opinions differ on whether Article 50 notification can be given for the United Kingdom by the
government exercising the royal prerogative without an explicit Act of Parliament to authorise it.
The Constitution of the United Kingdom is unwritten and it operates on convention and legal
precedent: this question is without precedent and so the legal position is arguably unclear.
A House of Commons briefing paper titled EU Treaty change: the parliamentary process of bills,
dated 15 June 2015, stated that, while ratification of international treaties is a matter of royal
prerogative, the ratification of treaties amending existing EU treaties is controlled by a requirement
for a prior act of Parliament; the paper made no mention of notification of withdrawal from existing
treaties. A week after the referendum, a columnist for The Times, David Pannick QC, asked
whether parliamentary approval is needed before notification is given of the UK's intention to leave,
and answered that an act of parliament is required. The Government argues that the use of
prerogative powers to enact the referendum result is constitutionally proper and consistent with
domestic law whereas the opposing view is that prerogative powers may not be used to set aside
rights previously established by Parliament.
[85]

[86]

[87]

Legal challenge: Article 50 ("Brexit") case[.]

Main article: R (Miller and Dos Santos) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union
Three groups of citizens brought a case before the High Court of England and Wales to challenge
the government's interpretation of the law. On 3 November 2016, the court ruled that the UK
requires a Parliament vote before formally starting the process to leave the EU. The court
described the passing of the European Communities Act 1972 as the major step of "switching on the
direct effect of EU law in the national legal systems", and reasoned that it is implausible that
Parliament's intention was that the Crown should be able to switch it off unilaterally by exercise of its
prerogative powers. The Supreme Court of the United Kingdom has scheduled time in December
for hearing an appeal. The circumstances in which the royal prerogative may be used is regarded
as of great constitutional significance.
[88]

[89]

[90]

[91]

[92]

Applications of other parties challenging the government in legal proceedings in Northern Ireland's
High Court were dismissed on 28 October, but the court was prepared to grant leave to appeal in
respect of four out of the five issues. Law officers of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales will be
able to take part in the appeal on behalf of their governments. The BBC reported that Scotland's
Lord Advocate would be addressing the Court on Scots law and the Welsh Counsel General's
submissions would be on the rule of law and parliamentary sovereignty.
[93]

[94]

[95]

"Great Repeal Bill"[.]

In October 2016, Theresa May promised a "Great Repeal Bill", which would repeal the European
Communities Act 1972 and restate in UK law all enactments previously in force under EU law. This
bill will be introduced in the autumn 2016 parliamentary session and enacted before or during the
Article 50 negotiations; it would not come into force until the date of exit. It would smooth the
transition by ensuring that all laws remain in force until specifically repealed.
[96]

Such a bill is likely to cause issues constitutionally in terms of the devolution settlements throughout
the UK nations. The Scottish Government's approach to the "Great Repeal Bill" is that it would
require legislative consent from the Scottish Parliament, as it will legislate on Scottish matters. It is
[97]

also in the Scotland Act 1998 that any legislation passed by the Scottish Parliament has to comply
with European Law. Without an alteration to this, Holyrood will still need to follow European Law, or
Westminster will likely follow convention to gain legislative consent from the Scottish Parliament to
alter this aspect of the Scotland Act.

Negotiating positions[.]
Various EU leaders have said that they will not start any negotiation before the UK formally invokes
Article 50. Jean-Claude Juncker ordered all members of the EU Commission not to engage in any
kind of contact with UK parties regarding Brexit. In October 2016, he stated that he was agitated
that the British had not developed a sense of community with Europeans during 40 years of
membership; Juncker denied that Brexit was a warning for the EU, envisaged developing an EU
defence policy without the British after Brexit, and rejected a suggestion that the EC should
negotiate in such a way that Britain would be able to hold a second referendum. On 5 November
2016, Juncker reacted to reports of some European businesses seeking to make agreements with
the British, and warned: "I am telling you [companies] that you should not interfere in the debate, as
you will find that I will block your path."
[98]

[99]

[100]

On 29 June, European Council president Donald Tusk told the UK that they would not be allowed
access to the European Single Market unless they accepted its four freedoms of movement for
goods, capital, services, and people.
[101]

German foreign secretary Frank-Walter Steinmeier met Britain's foreign secretary Boris Johnson on
4 November 2016; Johnson stressed the importance of British-German relationships, whereas
Steinmeier responded that the German view was that the UK should have voted to stay in the EU
and that the German priority now was to preserve the remaining union of 27 members. There could
be no negotiations before the UK formally gives notice. A long delay before beginning negotiations
would be detrimental. Great Britain could not keep the advantages of the common market but at the
same time cancel the "less pleasant rules".
[102]

The First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, stated that Scotland might refuse consent for
legislation required to leave the EU, though some lawyers argue that Scotland cannot block Brexit.
[103]

[104]

Newly appointed PM Theresa May made it clear that negotiations with the EU required a "UK-wide
approach". On 15 July 2016, she said: "I have already said that I won't be triggering article 50 until I
think that we have a UK approach and objectives for negotiations I think it is important that we
establish that before we trigger article 50."
[105]

According to The Daily Telegraph, the Department for Exiting the European Union spent over
250,000 on legal advice from top Government lawyers in two months and has plans to recruit more
people. Nick Clegg said the figures showed the Civil Service was unprepared for the very complex
negotiations ahead.
[106]

Consequences of withdrawal for the UK

As a majority of UK votes supported leaving the EU, its subsequent relationship with the remaining
EU members could take several forms. A research paper presented to the UK Parliament proposed
a number of alternatives to membership which would continue to allow access to the EU internal
market. These include remaining in the European Economic Area (EEA) as a European Free Trade
Association (EFTA) member (alongside Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland), or seeking
to negotiate bilateral terms more along the Swiss modelwith a series of interdependent sectoral
agreements. Britain has not negotiated a trade agreement since before 1973, and the government
is looking to the private sector for assistance.
[107]

[108]

Were the UK to join the EEA as an EFTA member, it would have to sign up to EU internal market
legislation without being able to vote on its content, although it would participate in its development.

Indeed, the EU is required to conduct extensive consultations with non-EU members beforehand
via its many committees and cooperative bodies.
Some EU law originates from various
international bodies on which non-EU EEA countries have a seat.
[109]

[110][111]

The EEA Agreement (EU and EFTA members except Switzerland) does not cover Common
Agriculture and Fisheries Policies, Customs Union, Common Trade Policy, Common Foreign and
Security Policy, direct and indirect taxation, and Police and Judicial Co-operation in Criminal Matters,
leaving EFTA members free to set their own policies in these areas; however, EFTA countries are
required to contribute to the EU Budget in exchange for access to the internal market.
[112]

[113][114]

Under the EEA Agreement, the UK would not be subject to European Court of Justice rulings but
instead the EFTA Courtwould resolve disputes between the EU, EU Member states, and EFTA
Member States.
[109]

The EEA Agreement and the agreement with Switzerland cover free movement of goods, and free
movement of people.
Many supporters of Brexit want to restrict freedom of movement;
Liechtenstein has successfully used the provisions of Article 114 of the EEA Agreement to restrict
free movement of people. Also, an EEA Agreement would include free movement for EU and EEA
citizens, as passport systems allow EEA institutions to access markets in EU Member States, for the
most part, without having to establish subsidiaries in each EU Member State and incur the costs of
full authorisation in those jurisdiction. Others present ideas of a Swiss solution, that is tailormade agreements between the UK and the EU, but EU representatives have claimed they would not
support such a solution.
The Swiss agreements contain free movement for EU citizens.
(The Swiss immigration referendum, February 2014 voted narrowly in favour of an end to the 'free
movement' agreement, by February 2017. However, the bilateral treaties between Switzerland and
the European Union are all co-dependent, if one is terminated then all are terminated. Consequently,
should Switzerland choose unilaterally to cancel the 'free movement' agreement then all its
agreements with the EU will lapse unless a compromise is found as of July 2016, no such
compromise was in sight).
[115][116]

[117]

[109]

[118]

[who?]

[citation needed]

[119]

[120]

Several thousand British citizens resident in other EU countries have after the referendum applied
for citizenship where they live, since they fear losing the right to work there.
[121]

Questions have been raised as to whether a state that withdraws from the EU automatically
withdraws from the EEA or whether such a withdrawal requires notice under Article 127 of the EEA
Agreement and, if the courts so decide, whether such notice given by the UK would require an
act of parliament.
[122]

[123]

Immigration[.]
A Conservative MEP representing South East England, Daniel Hannan, predicted on
BBC Newsnight that immigration from the European Union would not end after Brexit: "Frankly, if
people watching think that they have voted and there is now going to be zero immigration from the
EU, they are going to be disappointed. ... you will look in vain for anything that the Leave campaign
said at any point that ever suggested there would ever be any kind of border closure or drawing up
of the drawbridge."
[124]

[125]

In late July 2016, discussions were underway that might provide the UK with an exemption from the
EU rules on refugees' freedom of movement for up to seven years. Senior UK government sources
confirmed to The Observer that this was "certainly one of the ideas now on the table". If the
discussions led to an agreement, the UK though not an EU member would also retain access to
the single market but would be required to pay a significant annual contribution to the EU. According
to The Daily Telegraph the news of this possibility caused a rift in the Conservative Party: "Tory MPs
have reacted with fury .... [accusing European leaders of] ... failing to accept the public's decision to
sever ties with the 28-member bloc last month."
[126]

[127]

According to CEP analysis of Labour Force Survey, immigrants in the UK are on average more
educated than UK-born citizens. Citizens in the UK are concerned that immigrants are taking over
their jobs since most immigrants are highly educated, however, they are actually helping the
economy because they too consume goods, and produce jobs. Although immigrants to the UK
help to mitigate the negative effects of the ageing British labour force and are believed to have an
overall net positive fiscal effect, immigration does also have a dampening effect on wages due to the
greater supply of labour. Most citizens in the UK are against immigration; however,
Theresa
May believes that if immigration stops there will be no negotiation between the UK and the EU.
While the process of dealing with Brexit continues there will be higher security from the UK in
regulating who enters the UK, all of this to avoid new immigrants from staying in the UK. However,
forecasts indicate that immigration ows to the UK will remain relatively high after Brexit.
[128]

[129]

[citation needed]

[clarification

needed][130]

[131]

[132]

Economic effects[.]
Prior to the referendum, the UK treasury estimated that being in the EU has a strong positive effect
on trade and as a result the UK's trade would be worse off if it left the EU.
[133]

Supporters of withdrawal from the EU have argued that the cessation of net contributions to the EU
would allow for some cuts to taxes and/or increases in government spending. However, Britain
would still be required to make contributions to the EU budget if it opted to remain in the European
Free Trade Area. The Institute for Fiscal Studies notes that the majority of forecasts of the impact
of Brexit on the UK economy indicate that the government would be left with less money to spend
even if it no longer had to pay into the EU.
[134]

[113]

[135]

On 15 June 2016, Vote Leave, the official Leave campaign, presented its roadmap to lay out what
would happen if Britain left the EU. The blueprint suggested that Parliament would pass laws:
Finance Bill to scrap VAT on tampons and household energy bills; Asylum and Immigration Control
Bill to end the automatic right of EU citizens to enter Britain; National Health Service (Funding
Target) Bill to get an extra 100 million pounds a week; European Union Law (Emergency Provisions)
Bill; Free Trade Bill to start to negotiate its own deals with non-EU countries; and European
Communities Act 1972 (Repeal) Bill to end the European Court of Justice's jurisdiction over Britain
and stop making contributions to the EU budget.
[136]

[136]

European experts from the World Pensions Council (WPC) and the University of Bath have argued
that, beyond short-lived market volatility, the long term economic prospects of Britain remain high,
notably in terms of country attractiveness and foreign direct investment (FDI): "Country risk experts
we spoke to are confident the UK's economy will remain robust in the event of an exit from the EU.
'The economic attractiveness of Britain will not go down and a trade war with London is in no one's
interest,' says M Nicolas Firzli, director-general of the World Pensions Council (WPC) and advisory
board member for the World Bank Global Infrastructure Facility [...] Bruce Morley, lecturer in
economics at the University of Bath, goes further to suggest that the long-term benefits to the UK of
leaving the Union, such as less regulation and more control over Britain's trade policy, could
outweigh the short-term uncertainty observed in the [country risk] scores." The mooted importance
of the UKs membership of the EU as a lure for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has long been
stressed by supporters of the UKs continued involvement in the EU. In this view, foreign firms see
the UK as a gateway to other EU markets, with the UK economy benefiting from its resulting
attractiveness as a location for activity. The UK is certainly a major recipient of FDI. In 2014, it held
the second largest stock of inward investment in the world, amounting to just over 1 trillion or
almost 7% of the global total. This was more than double the 3% accounted for by Germany and
France. On a per capita basis, the UK is the clear front-runner among major economies with a stock
of FDI around three times larger than the level in other major European economies and 50% larger
than in the US.
[137]

On 10 August the Institute for Fiscal Studies published a report funded by the Economic and Social
Research Council which warned that Britain faced some very difficult choices as it couldn't retain the
benefits of full EU membership whilst restricting EU migration. The IFS claimed the cost of reduced

economic growth would cost the UK around 70Bn more than the 8Bn savings in membership fees.
It did not expect new trade deals to make up the difference.
[138]

Financial services
On 4 October 2016, the Financial Times assessed the potential effect of Brexit on banking. The City
of London is world leading in financial services, especially in currency transactions including foreign
exchange of euros. This position is enabled by the EU-wide "passporting" agreement for financial
products. Should the passporting agreement expire in the event of a Brexit, the British financial
service industry might lose up to 35,000 of its 1 million jobs, and the Treasury might lose 5 billion
pounds annually in tax revenue. Indirect effects could increase these numbers to 71,000 job losses
and 10 billion pounds of tax annually. The latter would correspond to about 2% of annual British tax
revenue.
[139]

By July 2016 the Senate of Berlin had sent invitation letters encouraging UK-based start-ups to relocate to Berlin. According to Anthony Browne of the British Banking Association, many major and
minor banks may relocate outside the UK.
[140]

[141]

Academic funding
UK universities rely on the EU for around 16% of their total research funding, and are
disproportionately successful at winning EU-awarded research grants. This has raised questions
about how such funding would be impacted by a British exit.
Jamie L Vernon says that about 1
billion of Britains scientific discovery has been paid for by European funding programmes every year
and that these resources will now be called into question. EU officials are calling for an immediate
separation, and British academics are already being asked to withdraw from EU-funded projects or
to resign from leadership roles. St George's, University of London professor and UKIP
campaigner Angus Dalgleish pointed out that Britain paid much more into the EU research budget
than it received, and that existing European collaborations such as CERN and the European
Molecular Biology Laboratory (EMBL) began long before the Lisbon Treaty, adding that leaving the
EU would not damage Britain's science. London School of Economics emeritus professor (and
founder of UKIP) Alan Sked pointed out that non-EU countries such as Israel and Switzerland signed
agreements with the EU in terms of the funding of collaborative research and projects, and
suggested that if Britain left the EU, Britain would be able to reach a similar agreement with the EU,
pointing out that educated people and research bodies would easily find some financial arrangement
during an at least 2-year transition period which was related to Article 50 of Treaty of European
Union (TEU). The UK government promised that a major type of EU research grant, Horizon 2020
funding, will be funded by the UK for their remaining duration after EU exit for UK researchers. A
July 2016 investigation by The Guardian suggested a large number of research projects in a wide
range of fields had been hit after the referendum result. They reported that European partners were
reluctant to employ British researchers due to uncertainties over funding.
[142][143]

[144]

[145]

[146]

[147]

[148]

Scotland, London, and Gibraltar[.]

The constitutional lawyer and retired German Supreme Court judge Udo Di Fabio has stated that
separate negotiations of the EU institutions with London, Scotland or Northern Ireland would
constitute a violation of the Lisbon Treaty, according to which the integrity of a member country is
explicitly put under protection.
[149]

Before the referendum, leading figures with a range of opinions regarding Scottish
independence suggested that in the event the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU but Scotland as
a whole voted to remain, a second Scottish independence referendum might be precipitated.
Former Labour Scottish First Minister Henry McLeish asserted that he would support Scottish
independence under such circumstances. In 2013, Scotland exported around three and a half
times more to the rest of the UK than to the rest of the EU. The pro-union organisation Scotland in
Union has suggested that an independent Scotland within the EU would face trade barriers with a
post-Brexit UK and face additional costs for re-entry to the EU.
[150]

[151]

[152]

[153]

[153]

The majority of those living in London and Greater London voted for the UK to remain in the EU.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she had spoken to London Mayor Sadiq Khan about the
possibility of remaining in the EU and said he shared that objective for London. A petition calling on
Khan to declare London independent from the UK received tens of thousands of signatures.
Supporters of London's independence argued that London should become a city-state similar
to Singapore, while remaining within the EU.
Khan admitted that complete independence was
unrealistic, but demanded devolving more powers and autonomy for London.
[154]

[155]

[156][157][158]

[159]

In 2015, Chief Minister of Gibraltar Fabian Picardo suggested that Gibraltar would attempt to remain
part of the EU in the event the UK voted to leave, but reaffirmed that, regardless of the result, the
territory would remain British. In a letter to the UK Foreign Affairs Select Committee, he requested
that Gibraltar be considered in negotiations post-Brexit. Spain's foreign minister Jos GarcaMargallo said Spain would seek talks on Gibraltar, whose status is disputed, the "very next day" after
a British exit from the EU.
[160]

[161]

[162]

[163]

Borders with the Republic of Ireland and France[.]

The Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom as a whole share, since the
1920s, a Common Travel Areawithout border controls. According to statements by Theresa
May and Enda Kenny, it is intended to maintain this arrangement. After Brexit, in order to prevent
illegal migration across the open Northern Irish border into the United Kingdom, the Irish and British
governments agreed in October 2016 on a plan whereby British border controls would be applied to
Irish ports and airports. This would prevent a "hard border" arising between the Republic of Ireland
and Northern Ireland. However, this agreement has not been officially ratified and has met
opposition by political parties in the Republic of Ireland and there is still great uncertainty in relation
to a 'hard border' between the Republic and Northern Ireland. A referendum for the reunification of
Ireland was suggested by Sinn Feins, Martin McGuinness immediately after the UK EU referendum
results were announced. The EU have recently improved borders between EU and non-EU
countries due to the recent refugee crisis and if these borders were to be imposed upon Ireland it
could disrupt the cross-border relationship that exists at the moment. Creating a border control
system between Ireland and Northern Ireland could jeopardise the Good Friday Agreement
established in 1998.
[164]

[165]

[166]

[167]

[168]

The Mayor of Saint-Quentin, Xavier Bertrand, stated in February 2016 that "If Britain leaves Europe,
right away the border will leave Calais and go to Dover. We will not continue to guard the border for
Britain if it's no longer in the European Union," indicating that the juxtaposed controls would end with
a leave vote. French Finance Minister Emmanuel Macron also suggested the agreement would be
"threatened" by a leave vote. These claims have been disputed, as the Le Touquet 2003
treaty enabling juxtaposed controls was not an EU treaty, and would not be legally void upon
leaving.
[169]

[170]

After the Brexit vote, Xavier Bertrand asked Franois Hollande to renegotiate the Touquet
agreement, which can be terminated by either party with two years' notice. Hollande rejected the
suggestion, and said: "Calling into question the Touquet deal on the pretext that Britain has voted for
Brexit and will have to start negotiations to leave the Union doesn't make sense." Bernard
Cazeneuve, the French Interior Minister, confirmed there would be "no changes to the accord". He
said: "The border at Calais is closed and will remain so."
[171]

[172]

[173]

Consequences of withdrawal for the EU[.]

Shortly after the referendum, the German parliament published an analysis on the consequences of
a Brexit on the EU and specifically on the economic and political situation of Germany. According
to this, Britain is, after the United States and France, the third most important export market for
German products. In total Germany exports goods and services to Britain worth about 120 billion
euros annually, which is about 8% of German exports, with Germany achieving a trade surplus with
[174]

Britain worth 36.3 billion euros (2014). Should a "hard Brexit" come to pass, the German exports
would be subject to WTO customs and tariffs, which would particularly affect German car exports,
where duties of about 10% would have to be paid to Britain. In total, 750,000 jobs in Germany
depend upon export to Britain, while on the British side about 3 million jobs depend on export to the
EU. The study emphasises however that the predictions on the economic effects of a Brexit are
subject to significant uncertainty.
According to the Lisbon Treaty (2009), EU Council decisions made by qualified majority voting can
only be blocked by if at least 4 members of the Council form a blocking minority. This rule was
originally developed to prevent the three most populous members (Germany, France, Britain) from
dominating the EU Council. However, after a Brexit of the economically liberal British, the Germans
and like-minded northern European countries (the Dutch, Scandinavians and Balts) would lose an
ally and therefore also their blocking minority. Without this blocking minority, other EU states could
overrule Germany and its allies in questions of EU budget discipline or the recruitment of German
banks to guarantee deposits in troubled southern European banks.
[175]

[176]

[177]

With Brexit the EU would lose its second-largest economy, the country with the third-largest
population and the financial centre of the world. Furthermore, the EU would lose its second-largest
net contributor to the EU budget (2015: Germany 14.3 billion euros, United Kingdom 11.5 billion
euros, France 5.5 billion euros).
[178]

[179]

Thus, the departure of Britain would result in an additional financial burden for the remaining net
contributors: Germany for example would have to pay an additional 4.5 billion euros for 2019 and
again for 2020. In addition the UK would no longer be a shareholder in the European Investment
Bank, in which only EU members can participate. Britain's share amounts to 16% which Britain
would withdraw unless there is an EU treaty change. After a Brexit, the EU would lose its strongest
military power (next to France) including the British nuclear shield, and one of its two veto powers in
the security council of the United Nations.
[180]

A report by Tim Oliver of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs expanded
analysis of what a British withdrawal could mean for the EU: the report argues a UK withdrawal "has
the potential to fundamentally change the EU and European integration. On the one hand, a
withdrawal could tip the EU towards protectionism, exacerbate existing divisions, or unleash
centrifugal forces leading to the EU's unravelling. Alternatively, the EU could free itself of its most
awkward member, making the EU easier to lead and more effective." Some authors also highlight
the qualitative change in the nature of the EU membership after Brexit: "What the UK case has
clearly shown in our view is that for the Union to be sustainable, membership needs to entail
constant caretaking as far as individual members' contributions to the common good are concerned,
with both rights and obligations."
[181]

[182]

As of 15 November 2016 the President of the European Parliament is considering moves to exclude
British MEPs from key committee positions ahead of the exit talks. The President has written to the
head of the conference of committee chairs asking him to gather information on how Britains
imminent departure will impact various EU documents passing through the parliaments committees.
Among the issues that should be considered, the letter states, are the possible impact of the British
departure on the legislative files currently under discussion in various committees, the impact if the
files are not concluded before Britain leaves, and whether any of the files are likely to feature in the
EU-UK withdrawal agreement.
[183]

There has been a big debate beginning as to where or not existing members may follow suit and
decide they want to be free from the constraints of the European Union. However it has been argued
that most member states have a greater dependence on the EU than Britain had, and for a lot of
smaller countries it is likely that their economy would struggle greatly to survive. It may be vital for
the EU to increase benefits for members if it wants to keep its attractive and positive image.
[182][need quotation to

verify]

Comparison with the 2016 US Presidential Election[.]

The Brexit referendum was widely compared with the 2016 United States Presidential Election,
before and after the vote had taken place. Four months prior to the election, Donald Trump, who
would later be elected as President, declared in an ambiguous tweet that he would be named "Mr
Brexit", and later described that the result of the US election would be "Brexit-plus-plus-plus".
[184][185]

After the results of the election, the similarity in magnitude of the victory and inconsistency between
electoral forecasting and the actual result was compared by many media outlets.
[186][187]

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