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Reservoir Engineering Handbook

The Carter-Tracy Water Influx Model

Van Everdingen-Hurst methodology provides the exact solution to the
radial diffusivity equation and therefore is considered the correct technique for calculating water influx. However, because superposition of
solutions is required, their method involves tedious calculations. To
reduce the complexity of water influx calculations, Carter and Tracy
(1960) proposed a calculation technique that does not require superposition and allows direct calculation of water influx.
The primary difference between the Carter-Tracy technique and the
van Everdingen-Hurst technique is that the Carter-Tracy technique
assumes constant water influx rates over each finite time interval. Using
the Carter-Tracy technique, the cumulative water influx at any time, tn,
can be calculated directly from the previous value obtained at tn 1, or:
( We ) n = ( We ) n 1 + [( t D ) n ( t D ) n 1 ]
B p n ( We ) n 1 ( p D ) n

( p D ) n ( t D ) n 1 ( p D ) n

(10 - 33)

where B = the van Everdingen-Hurst water influx constant as defined

by Equation 10-23
tD = the dimensionless time as defined by Equation 10-17
n = refers to the current time step
n 1 = refers to the previous time step
pn = total pressure drop, pi pn, psi
pD = dimensionless pressure
pD = dimensionless pressure derivative
Values of the dimensionless pressure pD as a function of tD and rD are
tabulated in Chapter 6, Table 6-2. In addition to the curve-fit equations
given in Chapter 6 (Equations 6-91 through 6-96), Edwardson and coauthors (1962) developed the following approximation of pD for an infinite-acting aquifer.
pD =

370.529 t D + 137.582 t D + 5.69549 ( t D )1.5

328.834 + 265.488 t D + 45.2157 t D + ( t D )1.5

(10 - 34)

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Water Influx

The dimensionless pressure derivative can then be approximated by

p D =

(10 - 35)

where E = 716.441 + 46.7984 (tD)0.5 + 270.038 tD + 71.0098 (tD)1.5

F = 1296.86 (tD)0.5 +1204.73 tD + 618.618 (td)1.5
+ 538.072 (tD)2 + 142.41 (tD)2.5
The following approximation could also be used between tD > 100:
pD = 0.5 [Ln (tD) + 0.80907]
with the derivative as given by:
PD

= 1/(2tD)

It should be noted that the Carter-Tracy method is not an exact solution

to the diffusivity equation and should be considered an approximation.

Example 10-9
Rework Example 10-7 by using the Carter-Tracy method.

Solution
Example 10-7 shows the following preliminary results:
Water influx constant B = 20.4 bbl/psi
tD = 0.9888 t
Step 1. For each time step n, calculate the total pressure drop pn = pi pn
and the corresponding tD
N

t, days

pn

pn

tD

0
1
2
3
4

0
182.5
365.0
547.5
730.0

2500
2490
2472
2444
2408

0
10
28
56
92

0
180.5
361.0
541.5
722.0

Step 2. Since values of tD are greater than 100, use Equation 6-92 to calculate pD and its derivative pD, i.e.,
pD = 0.5 [Ln (tD) + 0.80907]
pD = 1/(2 tD)

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Reservoir Engineering Handbook

tD

pD

pD

0
1
2
3
4

0
182.5
365
547.5
730.0

0
180.5
361.0
541.5
722.0

3.002
3.349
3.552
3.696

2.770 103
1.385 103
0.923 103
0.693 103

Step 3. Calculate cumulative water influx by applying Equation 10-33.

We after 182.5 days:

(20.4) (10) (0) (2.77 10 3 )

We = 0 + [180.5 0]

3
3.002 (0) (2.77 10 )

We = 12,266 bbl
We after 365 days:

We = 12, 266 + [361 180.5]

(20.4) (28) (12, 266) (1.385 10 3 )

3
3.349 (180.5) (1.385 10 )

= 42,546 bbl
We after 547.5 days:

We = 42, 546 + [541.5 361]

(20.4) (56) ( 42, 546) (0.923 10 3 )

3.552 (361) (0.923 10 3 )

We = 104,406
We after 720 days:

We = 104, 406 + [722 541.5]

(20.4) (92) (104, 406) (0.693 10 3 )

3.696 (541.5) (0.693 10 3 )

We = 202,477 bbl

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Water Influx

The following table compares results of the Carter-Tracy water influx

calculations with those of the van Everdingen-Hurst method.
Time, month

Carter-Tracy
We, bbl

Van Everdingen-Hurst
We, bbl

0
6
12
18
24

0
12,266
42,546
104,400
202,477

0
7,080
32,435
85,277
175,522

The above comparison indicates that the Carter-Tracy method considerably overestimates the water influx. This is due, however, to the fact
that a large time-step of 6 months was used in the Carter-Tracy method to
determine the water influx. Accuracy of the Carter-Tracy method can be
increased substantially by restricting the time step used in performing the
water influx calculations to less than 30 days, i.e. t = 30 days. Recalculating the water influx on monthly basis produces an excellent match
with the van Everdingen-Hurst method as shown below.
Carter- van EverdingenTracy
Hurst

time

time

months

days

psi

psi

tD

pD

pD

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

0
30
61
91
122
152
183
213
243
274
304
335
365
396
426
456
487
517
547
578
608
638
669
699
730

2500.0
2498.9
2497.7
2496.2
2494.4
2492.4
2490.2
2487.7
2485.0
2482.0
2478.8
2475.3
2471.6
2467.7
2463.5
2459.0
2454.3
2449.4
2444.3
2438.8
2433.2
2427.2
2421.1
2414.7
2408.0

0.00
1.06
2.31
3.81
5.56
7.55
9.79
12.27
15.00
17.98
21.20
24.67
28.38
32.34
36.55
41.00
45.70
50.64
55.74
61.16
66.84
72.75
78.92
85.32
91.98

0
30.0892
60.1784
90.2676
120.357
150.446
180.535
210.624
240.713
270.802
300.891
330.981
361.070
391.159
421.248
451.337
481.426
511.516
541.071
571.130
601.190
631.249
661.309
691.369
721.428

0.00
2.11
2.45
2.66
2.80
2.91
3.00
3.08
3.15
3.21
3.26
3.31
3.35
3.39
3.43
3.46
3.49
3.52
3.55
3.58
3.60
3.63
3.65
3.67
3.70

0
0.01661
0.00831
0.00554
0.00415
0.00332
0.00277
0.00237
0.00208
0.00185
0.00166
0.00151
0.00139
0.00128
0.00119
0.00111
0.00104
0.00098
0.00092
0.00088
0.00083
0.00079
0.00076
0.00072
0.00069

We

We

0.0
308.8
918.3
1860.3
3171.7
4891.2
7057.3
9709.0
12884.7
16622.8
20961.5
25938.5
31591.5
37957.8
45074.5
52978.6
61706.7
71295.3
81578.8
92968.2
105323.
118681.
133076.
148544.
165119.

bbl

bbl

7088.9

32438.0

85552.0

175414.0