International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 2016, 11, 973-974

http://dx.doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.2016-0421
2016 Human Kinetics, Inc.

INVITED COMMENTARY

Olympic Genes on the Podium?

Fabian Sanchis-Gomar, Helios Pareja-Galeano, Jose A. Rodriguez-Marroyo,
Jos J. de Koning, Alejandro Lucia, and Carl Foster
Despite some advances, it remains largely unknown how the millions of variations in the human genome influence athletic performance (especially in endurance events), and no single genetic test can really predict sports talent. However, there is experimental
evidence from animal research that selecting for even a simple characteristic such as running ability can produce comparatively
large and rapid changes in performance. That such selection has not been specifically documented in humans is more evidence
of the limits of physiology-archeology than of the unlikelihood of selection for physical abilities. Here, the authors argue that
top Olympians are likely genetically gifted individuals who in addition have numerous contributors to the complex trait of
being an athletic champion that may not necessarily depend on defined genetic variations.
Keywords: athlete, sport, performance, genomic variants
The Rio 2016 Olympic Games have recently concluded. The
home of many champions was largely predictable. Sprinting champions are of West African descent, whereas the best endurance runners
are of East African descent. Does this track and field paradigm really
reflect the genetic endowment that some ethnicities or individuals
are essentially predetermined, or at least are very strongly biased,
to excel in certain sport specialties?
There are data supporting the concept that speed and endurance genes differ.1 During human evolution, the trade-off
between these genes would have predisposed individuals to be more
sprinters or more stayers. This phenomenon is illustrated by
the R577X variation in ACTN3, a strong speed gene candidate
encoding -actinin-3, a protein required for explosive muscle
contraction. Approximately 1 billion people worldwide (~11%
of the population) are -actinin-3-deficient because of a genetic
defect in both gene copies. Yet, this null (XX) genotype, which
is much more infrequent among Jamaicans and African Americans,2
considerably decreases the likelihood of Olympic success in sprint
events.3 The R577X variation, which appeared 40,000 to 60,000
years ago in Eurasia and would have made anatomically modern
humans slower and more enduring, offered a survival benefit for
persistence hunters at the expense of losing muscle power.4 By
contrast, it is predatory animals capacity for explosive muscle
actions that is essential for survival.
However, despite some advances,5 it remains largely unknown
how the millions of variations in the human genome influence
athletic performance, and no single genetic test can reliably predict sports talent.6 A recent genome-wide exploration in 8 cohorts
of world-class endurance athletes from different ethnicities and

Sanchis-Gomar, Pareja-Galeano, and Lucia are with the Research Inst of

the Hospital 12 de Octubre (i+12), Madrid, Spain. Rodriguez-Marroyo
is with the Dept of Physical Education and Sports, University of Lon,
Lon, Spain. de Koning is with the Faculty of Human Movement Sciences,
MOVE Research Inst Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Foster is
with the Dept of Exercise and Sport Science, University of Wisconsin-La
Crosse, La Crosse, WI. Address author correspondence to Carl Foster at
cfoster@uwlax.edu.

continents failed to identify a panel of genomic variants common

to sports success.7 However, we have well-controlled experimental
evidence in rats that selecting for even a simple characteristic such as
running ability can produce comparatively large and rapid changes
in anatomy, physiology, and running ability.8,9 That such selection
has not been specifically documented in humans is more evidence
of the limits of physiology-archeology than of the unlikelihood of
selection for physical abilities.
Williams and Folland10 proposed that elite athletes are selected
from individuals with a high likelihood of matching some ideal
combination of genotypes in several key polymorphisms. They
suggested that 23 genotypes (based on 2008 data) are required
for top-level performance, assuming that an elite athlete must
have all 23 genetic variants, and then the likelihood of finding a
champion is a 0.0005% chance for any individual.10 However, the
larger the population, the more likely it is to find an individual with
all the necessary genotypes to allow phenotypic expression of the
champion athlete. The historical improvement in world records
over time as world population increases and as demographics
change dictates that the number of people living in countries with
at least potential access to high-level completion increases (eg,
the emergence of East African runners in the late 1960s was more
a sociocultural event, as the Kenyan and Ethiopian runners had
always been there). The stagnation of world-best performances
after the death of large numbers of athlete-age (more often male)
individuals in war11 can also be explained by a reduction in the
number of potential individuals in the selection pool. Similarly, the
relative flatness of current performance quality across the athletic
spectrum suggests that population-level selection for athleticism
may be approaching its limits. It also depends on the sport; that
is, the likelihood might be comparatively low for overall running (~10% of athletic individuals) and even for middle-distance
running (~25% of runners), as athletic individuals are more likely
drawn to team sports. Even here, the number of young adults
who even attempt to participate in sport in a systematic way is
limited to about 20%. Furthermore, the length of the competitive
window (approximately 1830 y in most societies, or about 16%
of the life span) limits the size of the pool of potential genetically
gifted competitors.
973

974Sanchis-Gomar et al

Thus, an equation of the genetics of top sport can be written as

Population of the planet in 2016 = 7.3

109

Likelihood of inheriting a required number of athletic genotypes

based on the Williams and Folland10 estimate = 0.000005
Percentage of people who make a systematic attempt
at organized sport = 0.20

In the end, we believe that it is likely that while watching the

Olympics we are observing some of the most unique individuals
on the planet. However, we agree with Wilber and Pitsiladis12 that
the best evidence available today supports the concept that Olympic
success is based as much on favorable somatotypical characteristics
lending to exceptional biomechanical and metabolic economy/efficiency; chronic exposure to altitude [eg, appropriate environment]
in combination with moderate-volume, high-intensity training ...,
and a strong psychological motivation to succeed(p92) as on any
currently definable genetic soup.

Percentage of the planet who are male = 0.48

(lower in postwar periods)

References

Percentage of the planet who have access to

any high-level sport = 0.9

Downloaded by Fondren Lbry TX on 11/24/16, Volume 11, Article Number 7

Percentage of the planet who choose running as their sport choice =

0.1
Percentage of runners who choose middle- to
long-distance running = 0.25
Percentage of the lifetime (75 y) in which top sport
is likely (12 y) = 0.16

Solving this equation, we get ~13 individuals with the required genotype for top-level competition in middle- to long-distance running.
When one considers that an Olympic final will have at most 12
individuals, and if we consider the 1500-m, 3000-m steeplechase,
5000-m, and 10,000 m as representative of middle- to long-distance
running, then at most there are (ignoring overlaps) 52 truly elite
male middle- to long-distance runners on the planet at any given
time, a number that is within 1 order of magnitude of the potential
number of people on the planet (~13) capable of top-class performance. When one considers the circumstances, injuries, political and
economic barriers, and selection into other sports that are likely to
prevent all of the truly top genetic candidates from participating,
the match within 1 order of magnitude of the top sport genomic
equation and Olympic finalists supports the concept that the top
Olympians are likely genetically gifted individuals. Moreover, they
possess numerous contributors to the complex trait of being an
athletic champion that may not depend on defined genetic variations. It seems reasonable to suggest that the genetic requirements
in other sports might be different, although the presence of a large
number of required genes as suggested by Williams and Foland10
is still plausible. Supporting factors required in addition to genetic
predisposition include social support, opportunity, economic possibility, hard work, and motivation, all of which may be independent
of gene-driven physiological factors. In the case of female athletes,
the percentage of people who have access to high-level sport is
markedly lower because of the history and lingering presence of
factors acting to keep women out of sport.

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