Consequence Modelling

COWI has substantial expertise in

carrying out advanced and cost-efficient consequence modelling. Our
services typically start with defining
representative release scenarios and
initial release conditions. The effect of
mitigating measures such as automatic closing of emergency shut-off
valves and the time they take to close
can be taken into account in our
models. Atmospheric dispersion of
harmful substances can be modelled
using an array of computing tools.
The effect of fires and explosions on
humans and the environment or possible domino effects can be estimated.
We provide credible results to complex problems such as the estimation
of concentration profiles as a function

Density
kg/m3

Temperature

Velocity Ice/dew

Concentration

m/s

g/kg

ppm

Propane 1,322

270.1

5.23

0.000

26,618

Air

284.5

1.89

1,238

0.0 m

30.0 m
GReAT

Dense gasjet dispersion

Fields of application
Quantification of risk reduction by
emergency shut-down systems
activation of isolation valves
blow-down of process pressure
to safe location
improving natural ventilation in
confined areas
minimising hot work

Decision support in design phase

location and activation sequence
of emergency shut-down valves
effects of reducing inventories or
making process conditions less
severe

of time or the influence of complex

building geometry on atmospheric
dispersion patterns.
We focus on client needs and tailor
our solutions in a cost-effective manner. Our services range from simple
first-estimate models, through standard commercial software packages,
to state-of-the-art CDF modelling of
for example smoke dispersion patterns in tunnels.
Environmental Consequences
We specialise in environmental modelling of emissions from industrial installations to the air, the sea, watercourses and ground water.

Release, dispersion and ignition

Our specialists can model the physical conditions such as:
Vapour fraction in a hydrocarbon
mixture if accidentally released,
Flow rate of a liquefied gas if accidentally released, where vapour
fraction increases as the pressure
falls,
Dispersion of accidentally released
dense gas, taking jet effects and atmospheric dispersion into account,
Time dependent ignition probability,
Heat radiation from a burning gas
cloud,
Effects of explosions on structures.

domino effects

0232-1302-017e-04c

emergency planning

Decision support in land-use

planning
safety distances
spacing of process equipment

turn

Probit equations estimate vulnerability

by predicting the fraction of fatalities
expected in a sample population exposed to a specified effect. The
specified effect may be exposure to
heat radiation, smoke or toxic gas.
The effect is expressed in terms of a
dose. This combines the exposure
time and level of exposure, i.e. toxic
gas concentration or heat radiation
level.

Individual and Societal Risk

Estimates of the individual risk to the
most exposed person inside and outside a plant, and of the societal risk
to the population in general are used
by COWI for decision-making at and
near plants handling hazardous substances.
Both these estimates involve:
Frequency - the estimated
frequency with which an accident
may be expected to occur,
Consequence area - the area surrounding an accident, that could be
effected by its consequences,
Ignition probability due to equipment and personnel,
Explosion probability and size of
explosive gas clouds,
Vulnerability exposure to an effect
that would be sufficient to cause
fatality.

Individual risk level close to a natural gas installation.

Computational Fluid Dynamics

(CFD)
CFD is particularly useful when releases may take place in areas with
obstructions such as buildings, process vessels or piping. CFD requires
a model of a finite volume of space to
be constructed and subdivided into a
grid of smaller elements or cells. The
flow of heat, mass and momentum

between the elements in the grid is

used to estimate the consequences
of an accident. The preparation of a
CFD model is time consuming and
other methods of consequence calculation may be more appropriate unless the effects of obstructions are of
critical importance.

CDF modelling of toxic release

HYSYS

Process simulation and estimation of the physical properties of any mixture of chemical sub-stances.

FLOWmaster

Modelling of transient release rates of leaks and ruptures in liquid and gas pipelines and piping systems.

FLASHLIQ

Modelling of transient releases of liquified gases from pressure vessels.

STAR-CD

CFD (computational fluid dynamics) modelling of flow with complex boundary conditions.

PHAST

Modelling of releases of flammable and toxic substances, and the potential accidents that could result (e.g. fires, explosion, dispersion of toxic gas clouds).

GReAT

Modelling dispersion of heavy gas or flashing liquid jet releases and modelling the toxic or flammable limits for
neutral gas dispersion as a function of release rate, height, weather conditions etc.

JET-FLAME

Modelling the flammable limits of a gas jet and the distances from the flame to critical heat radiation intensities.

CONFINEX

Calculation of explosion overpressure in confined or ventilated spaces.

Consequence calculations software