Activity 3- The logic of Hypothesis Testing

Math -1040
Yekaterina Murafa
1. A coin flip would represent a yes or no answer from a voter, as a coin flip can end up
with only two outcomes as well - heads or tails.
2. In the first run I have obtained 234 heads, according to our activity that means 234 registered
voters are in favor of the policy.
3. The sample proportion of voters in favor of the policy is = 0.47
4. In this sample, I got 272 registered voters in favor of the policy.
5. The sample proportion here is = 0.54
6. Just like the flip of the coin, we can not predict the outcome of the sample that is randomly
drawn.
7. Out of the 1000 different surveys, 194 resulted in 260 or more voters.
8. According to our column, proportion is = 0.19
9. As per our original question- we are trying to find a convincing evidence that proportion of
registered voters is greater than 50%, therefore we need to see how many of 500 registered
voters have voted in favor, number 260 being 50% and greater out of 500 voters chosen for a
survey.
10. Considering 260 voters out of 500 are in favor of the policy, I would say that that the
proportion is most definitely greater than 0.5.

11. The shape of distribution is pretty symmetrical, with the mean = 250, and the center is
located at the median of the distribution. From the center point we have half of the
observations on each side.
12. 42
13. The proportion in a sample of 0.54 is 0.42
14. With the mean still being 250 i would say that yes, it is a convincing evidence.
15. Only 4 of the 1000 different surveys resulted in 280 or more voters in favor of the policy.
16. The proportion is 0.004
17. As we increase the number of voters that are in favor (well call them yes voters), the
proportion out of 1000 runs is getting smaller. I am beginning to think I do not understand
the question. Regardless, Ill keep going.
18. The distribution is bell shaped, with the 250 value of Mp and about 11 value of Qp.
19. 0.6031
20. 0.5892
21. 0.5755
22. In all of the 3 cases our P value is greater than 0.5, therefore we can use simulation, or a
normal model to approximate P-values for hypotheses involving a population proportion.