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- Beat the Market A Scientific Stock Market System - Edward O. Thorp.pdf
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Column 22

Understanding Fortune’s Formula

by Edward O. Thorp

Copyright 2007

In January 1961 I spoke at the annual meeting of the American

Mathematical Society on “Fortune’s Formula: The Game of Blackjack.” This

announced the discovery of favorable card counting systems for blackjack.

My 1962 book Beat the Dealer explained the detailed theory and practice.

The “optimal” way to bet in favorable situations was an important feature. In

Beat the Dealer I called this, naturally enough, “The Kelly gambling system,”

since I learned about it from the 1956 paper by John L. Kelly. I’ve continued

to use it successfully in gambling games and in investing. Since 1966 I’ve

called it “the Kelly criterion” in my articles. The rising tide of theory and of

practical use by several leading money managers received further impetuous

from William Poundstone’s readable book about the Kelly Criterion, Fortune’s

Formula. (I approved the use of the title.) At a value investor’s conference

held in Los Angeles in May, 2007, my son reported that “everyone” said they

were using the Kelly Criterion.

The Kelly Criterion is simple: bet or invest so as to maximize the

expected growth rate of capital, which is equivalent to maximizing the

expected value of the logarithm of wealth. But the details can be

mathematically subtle. Since they’re not covered in Poundstone (2005) you

6/25/2010 1

may wish to refer to my article “The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports

Betting and the Stock Market” (Thorp 1997, 2000, 2006).

Mohnish Pabrai, in his new book The Dhandho Investor, gives examples

of the use of the Kelly Criterion for investment situations. Consider his

investment in Stewart Enterprises (pages 108-115). His analysis gave a list

of scenarios and payoffs over the next 24 months which I summarize in Table

1.

Table 1 Stewart Enterprises, Payoff Within 24 Months

Probability Return

p1 = 0.80 R1 > 100%

p2 = 0.19 R2 > 0%

p3 = 0.01 R3 = −100%

______________________________

Sum=1.00

The expected growth rate g ( f ) if we bet a fraction f of our net worth

is

3

(1) g ( f ) = ∑ pi ln ( 1 + Ri f )

i =1

where ln means the logarithm to the base e. When we replace the pi

by their values and the Ri by their lower bounds this gives the conservative

estimate for g ( f ) in equation (2):

(2) g ( f ) = 0.80 ln ( 1 + f ) + 0.01ln ( 1 − f )

6/25/2010 2

Setting g ‵( f ) = 0 and solving gives the optimal Kelly fraction f * = 0.975

noted by Pabrai. Not having heard of the Kelly Criterion back in 2000, Pabrai

only bet 10% of his fund on Stewart. Would he have bet more, or less, if he

had then known about Kelly’s Criterion? Would I have? Not necessarily.

Here are some of the many reasons why.

(1) Opportunity costs. A simplistic example illustrates the idea. Suppose

Pabrais’ portfolio already had one investment which was statistically

independent of Stewart and with the same payoff probabilities. Then, by

symmetry, an optimal strategy is to invest in both equally. Call the optimal

Kelly fraction for each f *. Then 2 f * <1 since 2 f * = 1 has a positive

probability of total loss, which Kelly always avoids. So f * < 0.50. The same

reasoning for n such investments gives f * < 1/ n. Hence we need to know

the other investments currently in the portfolio, any candidates for new

investments, and their (joint) properties, in order to find the Kelly optimal

fraction for each new investment, along with possible revisions for existing

investments.

Pabrai’s discussion (e.g. pp. 78-81) of Buffett’s concentrated bets gives

considerable evidence that Buffet thinks like a Kelly investor, citing Buffett

bets of 25% to 40% of his net worth on single situations. Since f * < 1 is

necessary to avoid total loss, Buffett must be betting more than .25 to .40 of

f * in these cases. The opportunity cost principle suggests it must be higher,

perhaps much higher. This supports the assertion in Rachel and (fellow

Wilmott columnist) Bill Ziemba’s new book, “_______,” that Buffett thinks like

6/25/2010 3

a Kelly investor when choosing the size of an investment. They discuss Kelly

and investment scenarios at length.

Computing f * without the context of the available alternative

investments is one of the most common oversights I’ve seen in the use of the

Kelly Criterion. Because it generally overestimates f * it is a dangerous

error.

(2) Risk tolerance. As discussed at length in Thorp (97, 00, 07), “full Kelly”

is too risky for the tastes of many, perhaps most, investors and f = cf *,

0 < c < 1, or “fractional Kelly” is much more to their liking. Fully Kelly is

characterized by drawdowns which are too large for the comfort of many

investors.

(3) The “true” scenario is worse than the supposedly conservative lower

bound estimate. Then we are inadvertently betting more than f * and, as

discussed in Thorp (97, 00, 07), we get more risk and less return, a strongly

suboptimal result. Betting f = cf *, 0 < c < 1, gives some protection against

this.

(4) Black swans. As fellow Wilmott columnist Nassim Nicholas Taleb has

pointed out so eloquently in his new bestseller The Black Swan, humans tend

not to appreciate the effect of relatively infrequent unexpected high impact

events. To allow for these “black swans,” scenarios often don’t adequately

consider the probabilities of large losses. These large loss probabilities may

substantially reduce f *.

6/25/2010 4

(5) The “long run.” The Kelly Criterion’s superior properties are

asymptotic, appearing with increasing probability as time increases. They

include

(a) As time t tends to infinity the Kelly bettor’s fortune will surpass

that of any bettor following an “essentially different” strategy.

(b) Given a large fixed goal, e.g. to multiply your capital by 100, or

1000, the expected time for the Kelly investor to get there tends to be

least.

Is a multiple of 100 or 1000 realistic? Indeed. In the 51½ years from

1956 to mid 2007, Warren Buffett has increased his wealth to about $5x1010.

If he had $2.5x104 in 1956, that’s a multiple of 2x106. We know he had about

$2.5x107 in 1969 so his multiple over the last 38 years is about 2x103. Even

my own efforts, as a late starter on a much smaller scale, have multiplied

capital by 2x104 over the 40½ years from 1967 to mid 2007. I know many

investors and hedge fund managers who have achieved such multiples.

The caveat here is that an investor or bettor many not choose to make,

or be able to make, enough Kelly bets for the probability to be “high enough”

for these asymptotic properties to prevail.

6/25/2010 5

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