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TakingSeatsonaPlane
ThisisaneatlittleproblemthatIwasdiscussingtodaywithmylabgroupoutatlunch.Notparticularlydifficultbutinterestingimplications
nonetheless
Imaginetherearea100peopleinlinetoboardaplanethatseats100.Thefirstpersoninlinerealizeshelosthisboardingpasssowhenhe
boardshedecidestotakearandomseatinstead.Everypersonthatboardstheplaneafterhimwilleithertaketheir"proper"seat,orifthatseat
istaken,arandomseatinstead.
Question:Whatistheprobabilitythatthelastpersonthatboardswillendupinhis/herproperseat.
Moreover,andthisisthepartI'mstillponderingabout.Canyouthinkofaphysicalsystemthatwouldfollowthiscombinatorialstatistics?
Maybeaspinwavefunctioninacrystaletc...
(probability ) (combinatorics ) (puzzle)
editedOct1'15at8:19
askedSep27'10at20:15
Community
crasic
1,678
15
26
Tomakeananalogybetweenthispuzzleandaphysicalsystem,youwouldneedtothinkofsomesystem
whereparticlesorobjectshave"assignedlocations"(separatefromtheiractuallocation).Thisisnot
typicallythecaseinphysics,whichusuallyconcentratesonlyonhowthingsactuallyare,andthedynamics
ofhowthingschange.MattFeb28'15at11:45
Thankyouforusing"his/her"atleastonceintheproblemstatement.Theproseonthispageisprettymale
biasedotherwise.GregMartinMay26'16at18:02
10Answers
Thisisaclassicpuzzle!
Theansweristhattheprobabilitythatthelastpersonendsinupinhisproperseatisexactly
1
2
Thereasoninggoesasfollows:
Firstobservethatthefateofthelastpersonisdeterminedthemomenteitherthefirstorthe
lastseatisselected!Thisisbecausethelastpersonwilleithergetthefirstseatorthelastseat.
Anyotherseatwillnecessarilybetakenbythetimethelastguygetsto'choose'.
Sinceateachchoicestep,thefirstorlastisequallyprobabletobetaken,thelastpersonwillget
eitherthefirstorlastwithequalprobability: .
1
2
Sorry,noclueaboutaphysicalsystem.
answeredSep27'10at20:30
Aryabhata
63k
139
228
2 Thisisagoodintuitivewaytothinkaboutit.Aformalproofistooheavyforaoveracupofcoffee
discussion,thisisjustright.I'llgiveyouthecreditsincenobodyseemstowanttotakeashotatthe
physicalapplication crasic Sep29'10at8:23
Hereisarephrasingwhichsimplifiestheintuitionofthisnicepuzzle.
Supposewheneversomeonefindstheirseattaken,theypolitelyevictthesquatterandtaketheir
seat.Inthiscase,thefirstpassengerkeepsgettingevicted(andchoosinganewrandomseat)
until,bythetimeeveryoneelsehasboarded,hehasbeenforcedbyaprocessofeliminationinto
hiscorrectseat.
Thisprocessisthesameastheoriginalprocessexceptfortheidentitiesofthepeopleinthe
seats,sotheprobabilityofthelastboarderfindingtheirseatoccupiedisthesame.
Whenthelastboarderboards,thefirstboarderiseitherinhisownseatorinthelastboarder's
seat,whichhavebothlookedexactlythesame(i.e.empty)tothefirstboarderuptonow,so
thereisnowaythepoorfirstboardercouldbemorelikelytochooseonethantheother.
answeredApr17'11at19:09
Matt
http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/5595/takingseatsonaplane
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36
1 ThisansweralsogivesanintuitiveexplanationfortheniceresultinByronSchmuland'sanswer:Whenthek
thpassengerreachestheplane,therearen (k 1) emptyseats.Ifthefirstpassengerstandsup,he
willseethatheisinanarbitraryoneofn k + 2 seats,allofwhichhavelookedthesametohimsofar.
Sothereisa
'14at2:22
1
nk+2
chancethat,whenseated,heisoccupyingthekthpassenger'sseat.MattAug19
Let'sfindthechancethatanycustomerendsupinthewrongseat.
For2 k n,customerkwillgetbumpedwhenhefindshisseatoccupiedbysomeonewith
asmallernumber,whowasalsobumpedbysomeonewithasmallernumber,andsoonbackto
customer1.
Thisprocesscanbesummarizedbythediagram
1
j1
j2
jm
k.
(n + 1) j1
(n + 1) j2
(n + 1) jm
Thus,theprobabilitythatcustomerkgetsbumpedis
m
1
p(k) =
n
=1
wherethesumisoverallsetsofjvalues1
p(k) =
(n + 1) j
.Thatis,
jJ
(n + 1) j
2,,k1
1
n
1
=
k1
)
(n + 1) j
j=2
(n + 2) j
k1
(1 +
j=2
(n + 1) j
1
.
n + 2 k
Addedreference: FindingyourseatversustossingacoinbyYaredNigussie,American
MathematicalMonthly121,JuneJuly2014,545546.
editedJun10'14at16:09
answeredAug7'11at12:30
ByronSchmuland
30.2k
mayiask2questions,1:howcouldIgetJ {2,,k1}
1
jJ
(n+1)j
k1
j=2
(1 +
1
(n+1)j
61
136
?2.the
bumpingmaynotstartfromcustomer1,itcouldstartfromanyone.e.g.thediagramcouldbe
5 j1 j2 jm kifthefirstpersonintheline(losthisticket)seatsatseat#5.
right?athos Oct1'13at1:18
1 1.iI (1 + xi )
J I
jJ
xj
ByronSchmulandOct1'13at12:13
1 2.No,anybumpingcanbetracedbacktopassenger1.ByronSchmulandOct1'13at12:14
thankyouforyourexplanation.forpoint1,afterdrawingitoutifinallyunderstandit.butforpoint2,could
youpleaseelaborateabitmore?scenarioA:thefirstpersoninthelinebumpedintoseat#1,customer#1
thenbumpedintoseat#5,thisis1 j1 = 5 j2 jm kScenarioB:thefirst
personinthelinebumpedintoseat#5,customer#5thenbumpedon,thisis
j1 = 5 j2 jm k theseare2differentscenariosright? athos Oct1'13at15:05
1 +1forthereference!here'salinktoitMattAug19'14at2:09
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Thisanalysisiscorrect,butnotcompleteenoughtoconvinceme.Forexample,whyisthefate
ofthelastpersonsettledassoonasthefirstperson'sseatchosen?Whywillanyotherseatbut
thefirstperson'sorthelastperson'sbetakenbythetimethelastpersonboards?
Ihadtofillintheholesformyselfthisway...
Thelastperson'sfateisdecidedassoonasanybodychoosesthefirstperson'sseat(nobodyis
nowinawrongseat,soeverybodyelsegetstheirassignedseat,includingthelastperson)orthe
lastperson'sseat(thelastpersonnowwon'tgettheircorrectseat).Anyotherchoiceatany
stagedoesn'tchangetheprobabilitiesatall.
Rephrasing...ateachstage,eitherthemattergetssettledandthereisa50/50chanceitgets
settledeachwayforthelastperson'sseat,ortheagonyisjustpostponed.Themattercanthus
besettledatanystage,andtheprobabilitiesatthatstagearetheonlyonesthatmatterand
theyare50/50nomatterwhatstage.Thus,theoverallprobabilityis50/50.
answeredOct1'10at17:03
DavidLewis
1,427
19
Idon'treallyhavetheintuitionforthis,butIknowtheformalproof.Thisisequivalentto
showingthattheprobabilitythatinapermutationof[n]chosenuniformlyatrandom,two
elementschosenuniformlyatrandomareinthesamecycleis1/2.Bysymmetry,it'senoughto
showthattheprobabilitythat1and2areinthesamecycleis1/2.
Therearemanywaystoshowthisfact.Forexample:theprobabilitythat1isinacycleof
lengthkis1/n,for1 k n.Thisistruebecausethenumberofpossiblekcyclescontaining
1is (
)(k 1)! = (n 1)!/(n k)!,andthenumberofwaystocompleteapermutation
n1
k1
k 1 1
k=1
1
=
n 1 n
n(n 1)
n(n 1)
(k 1) =
n(n 1)
k=1
= 1/2.
Alternatively,theChineserestaurantprocesswith = 0, = 1 generatesauniformrandom
permutationof[n]atthenthstep2ispairedwith1atthesecondstepwithprobability1/2.
ThisisabitmoreelegantbutrequiressomeunderstandingoftheCRP.
answeredNov19'10at19:40
MichaelLugo
13k
27
59
ItriedtosynthesizetheproofformyselffromstuffI'vereadtogetridofallcalculations
(somehowIfoundtheargumentthat"eachperson'schoiceis5050betweengoodandbad
oncewethrowawaytheirrelevantstuff"convincingbuthardtoformalize).
Claim1:whenthelastpassengerboards,theremainingemptyseatwilleitherbehisownorthe
firstpassenger's.
Proof:Iftheremainingemptyseatbelongstopassengern
havesatthere.
1, 100
,thenpassengernshould
Claim2:ifatanytimeapassengerotherthanthefinalpassengerfindsherseatoccupied,then
boththeseatassignedtothefirstandtothefinalpassengerwillbefree.
Proof:Ifnot,thenthereisanonzeroprobabilitythatafterthispassengermakesadecision,
boththefirstandlastseatswillbeoccupied.ThiscontradictsClaim1.
Claim3:Thereisabijectionbetweenthesetofadmissibleseatingsinwhichthefinalpassenger
getshisseatandthesetwherehedoesn't.
Proof:SupposeforanadmissibleseatingS thatpassengernisthefirsttochooseoneof{first
passenger'sseat,lastpassenger'sseat}.Byclaim2,thereisauniqueadmissibleseatingT
whichagreeswithS exceptthatpassengernandthefinalpassengermaketheopposite
decision(T matchesS untilpassengernsits,thenbyClaim2,T mustcontinuetomatchS
untilthefinalpassenger).
answeredDec4'13at9:42
hunter
10.8k
16
32
Thisisthebestproofsofar!tukoOct31'16at13:06
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LetP(n)denotetheprobabilityofthelastpassengergettinghisseatifwebeginwithn
passengers.
Considerthesimplecaseforjust2seats:
P(2)=1/2{firstboarderpickshisownseatwith1/2probability}
Fornseats:(i)With1/nprobability,thepassengerpickstheseatofthefirstpassenger,then'th
seatfromtheend(inwhichcasethelastpassengerwoulddefinitelygethisseat).(ii)With1/n
probability,thecurrentpassengerpickstheseatofthelastpassenger,firstseatfromtheend
(andnow,thelastpassengercandefinitelynotgethisownseat).(iii)Otherwise,thepassenger
pickssomeotherseat(say#ifromtheend)amongthen2remainingseats(withprobability
1/n),continuingthedilemma.Theproblemnowreducestotheinitialproblemwithiseats.
Therefore,P(n)=(1/n*(1))+(1/n*(0))+Sum{(1/n)*P(i),2<i<n}
=1/n+1/n{SumP(i),2<i<n}(1)
Similarly,((n1)/n)P(n1)=1/n+1/nSum{P(i),2<i<n1}
=[1/n+1/nSum{P(i),2<i<n}]1/nP(n1)
=>(n1)/nP(n1)=P(n)1/nP(n1)
=>P(n)=P(n1)
=>P(m)=P(n1),forallintegersm>n1
SinceP(2)=1/2,ThereforeP(m)=1/2forallintegersm>2
answeredAug4'11at17:17
Shashank
51
Myanswerowesmuchtowhatwentbefore,butitworksforme.Thefirstpersoninthequeue(
assumehedoesnotsitinhisownseatbyrandomchance)displacesonepersonstillinthe
queuebysittingintheirseat.Passengerscontinuetoboardintheirownseatsuntilthe
displacedpersoncomestositdown.Hisownseatistakensoheinturndisplacessomeoneelse
whoisinthequeue.Thereisalwaysonedisplacedpersoninthequeueasthiscyclecontinues
Fromherethereareonly2possibleoutcomes,a)adisplacedpersonrandomlychosesthefirst
mansseatatwhichpointthecycleofdisplacementendsandtheboardingcanthencontinue
totheendpersonwitheveryoneelseincludingthelastmangettingtheirownseatorb)The
lastmansseatisselectedbyadisplacedpersonthenthereisnomoredisplacementuntilthe
lastmantriestositdownandwillfindhisseatfull
Whicheverofa)orb)happensfirstwilldeterminewhetherthelastmansseatisavailable
whenhecomestoboard.a)orb)are2eventsdeterminedbyrandomchancethereforeeach
has50%chanceofhappeningHenceanswer=1/2or50%
answeredJan27'16at13:30
Bruce
1
Jan27'16at13:51
Itispossibletocountthedifferentconfigurationsofinteresttocalculatetheprobability
directly,byformalizingsomeoftheideasalreadypresented.
Inanallowedconfiguration,denoteadisplacementofoneormorepassengerswiththe
diagrami j wheneverpassengeri displacespassengerjfromtheirassignedseat(i < j ).
SupposeCisanallowedconfigurationwithadisplacementDofpassengers,say,. . . i j. . .
Clearlyihasapredecessor(whichcanbeaddedtothediagram)oriispassenger1,sincethe
problemstatesthatonlypassenger1isfreetodisplacepassengerswithoutbeingdisplaced
themselves.Sinceeachpredecessormustrepresentapassengerwhoboardedearlier,ofwhich
thereareafinitenumber,usingthisargumentatmostitimes,showsthatDmustbeginwith
passenger1.Byasimilarargument,Dmusthavealastpassengerwhichchoosespassenger1s
seattoendthedisplacement.
IfEisadisplacementinC,bythesameargumentitmuststartwithpassenger1,followedby
thechoicesalreadyindicatedinD,sothatEisthesameasD.Clearly,twoallowed
configurationsarethesameifandonlyiftheirdisplacementsarethesame.Additionally,note
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thatadisplacementoftheform,1 i jwhere{i,,j}isasubsetof{2,,100}in
increasingorder,alwaysspecifiesavalidconfiguration.Hence,
Thereisabijectionbetweenthesetofallowableconfigurationsanddiagramsoftheform
1 i jwhere{i,,j}isasubsetof{2,,100}inincreasingorder.
Nowcountconfigurationsbycountingthediagrams.Write1asthediagramforthenull
displacementintheconfigurationwhereallpassengerssitintheirassignedseats.Notethat
thisissameascountingallsubsetsofatwoparticularsets,sotheprobabilitythatthefinal
passengerissittingintheirassignedseatis:
Number of all diagrams of the form1ijwhere {i,,j} is a subset of {2,,99} in increasing order
Number of all diagrams of the form1klwhere {k,,l} is a subset of {2,,100} in increasing order
editedMay27'16at22:41
2
2
98
99
1
2
answeredMay26'16at6:42
rsp
1
It'ssimpleonlytwocasesarepossibleeitherthe100thpersonsitsonhisseatoron1stpersons
seatnomatterwhatothersdo100thpersonhasonlytwooptionssoprobabilityis1/2
answeredMar28'15at16:43
Ishaansingh
1
protectedbyZevChonolesMay27'16at2:46
Thankyouforyourinterestinthisquestion.Becauseithasattractedlowqualityorspamanswersthathadtoberemoved,postingananswernowrequires10reputationon
thissite(theassociationbonusdoesnotcount).
Wouldyouliketoansweroneoftheseunansweredquestionsinstead?
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