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Bi tp chng VII

Bi 7.1/146

Tng th l bin ngu nhin X c E(X)=1065, V (X) = 500


Xt mu W = (X1, X2, ..., Xn), trong X1, X2, ..., X100 l cc bin ngu nhin c
lp c
p

E(Xi) = E(X) = 1065,

V (Xi ) = V (X) = 5002,

C trung bnh mu l X = 1001 (X1 + X2 + ... + X100)


Khi

i = 1, 100

1
1
(E(X1) + E(X2) + ... + E(X100)) =
.100.1065 = 1065
100
100
1
1
V (X) =
(V (X1 ) + V (X1) + ... + V (X100)) =
.100.5002 = 2500
2
2
100
100
E(X) =

Bi 7.2/146

Tng th l bin ngu nhin X c V(X)=1000000.


Ly ra mu kch thc n: W = (X1, X2, ..., Xn) th cc Xi cng phn phi vi X. Khi
tm c
1
X1 + ... + Xn 
= 2 [V (X1 ) + ... + V (Xn )]
n
n
1
V (X) 1000000
= 2 nV (X) =
=
n
n
n

V (X) = V

Do

Se(X) 6 25
n>

V (X) 6 25

1000000
= 1600
252

1000000
6 25
n

Kch thc mu iu tra ti thiu phi l 1600.


Bi 7.3/146

Tng th c xc sut p=0,5.


Ly mu ngu nhin kch thc n=120 th sai s chun ca tn sut mu l
p
Se(f ) = V (f ) =

p(1 p)
0, 5.0, 5
0, 5

=
= 0, 0456
=
n
10, 9445
120

Bi 7.4/146

Mu kch thc n=5 l W = (X1, X2, X3, X4, X5).


Mu c th w=(10,12,16,18,18)
Theo phng php hm c lng th X chnh l c lng khng chch, hiu qu nht
1

v vng ca trung bnh tng th m. Do c lng im ca trung bnh tng th trong


bi ny l
x=

10 + 12 + 16 + 18 + 19
x1 + ... + x5
=
= 15
5
5

Bi 7.5/147

f=

3
50

= 0, 06

Nu dng phng php hm c lng th f l c lng ca p. Do c th cho rng


t l a mn hng bng 6%.
Bi 7.6/147

Gi s hai c lng khng chch cho l v . Theo ra ta c


= 1/n,
BS()

BS() = 0, 01

c lng th nht tt hn c lng th hai khi


< BS()
BS()

1
< 0, 01 n > 100
n

Bi 7.7/147

Coi bin ngu nhin gc phn phi chun. Gi s phng sai tng th l V (X) = 2.
Xt mu quan st c n=500, khi trung v mu Xd c phng sai l
V (Xd ) =

1
1
1
=
=
4n[f (xd)]2
4.500[f (xd)]2
2000[f (xd)]2

Trong khi trung bnh ca 320 quan st, k hiu X 0, c phng sai l
V (X)
2
V (X ) =
=
320
320
0

hiu qu ca trung v so vi trung bnh l


0

2
320
1
2000[f (xd)]2

2000
[f (xd)]2 2 = 6, 25[f (xd)]2 2
320
1
6, 25
= 6, 25[f ()]2 2 = 6, 25 2 2 =
<1
.2
2

V (X )
EF =
=
V (Xd )

Khi c y s liu th dng trung bnh mu tt hn


Khi thiu s liu th dng trung v c lng trung bnh ca tng th.
Bi 7.8/147

Tng th X N (, 2)
Mu W = (X1, X2, ..., Xn)
Trung v mu l Xd c phng sai l
V (Xd ) =

1
2
=
V (X)
4n[f (xd)]2
4
2

Trung bnh mu l X c phng sai l V (X)


Khi hiu qu ca Xd so vi X l
EF =

V (X)
V (X)
4
= 2
0, 64
=
V (Xd )
2
V
(X)
4

Dng trung bnh mu hiu qu hn.


Bi 7.9/147

a. X l c lng khng chch ca chiu di thc nu E(X)=10. T bng ta tm c


1
1
1
E(X) = 8. + 10. + 11. = 10
4
4
2

Do kt lun X l c lng khng chch ca chiu di thc.


Tng t ta c
1
1
E(Y ) = 4. + 6. = 5
2
2

nn Y l c lng khng chch ca chiu rng thc.


b. Do Z=X.Y nn n c bng phn phi xc sut nh sau
Z=X.Y 32 40 44 48 60
P(z)
1/8 1/8 1/4 1/8 1/8
T tm c

66
1/4

1
1
1
1
1
1
E(Z) = 32 + 40 + 44 + 48 + 60 + 66 = 50
8
8
4
8
8
8

M din tch thc ca tha rung l 10.5=50.


Vy Z=X.Y l c lng khng chch ca din tch thc
Bi 7.10/148

Tng th X A(p). K hiu hai mu l


W1 = (X11, X12, X13)

n1 = 3

W2 = (X21, X22, X23, X24)

n2 = 4

a, Khi cc tn sut mu f1, f2 u c E(f1) = E(f2) = p nn u l c lng khng


chch ca p.
b, Ta c
p(1 p) p(1 p)
=
;
n1
3
V (f2) < V (f1)
f2
V (f1) =

V (f2) =

p(1 p) p(1 p)
=
n2
4
f1

R rng
nn c lng hiu qu hn c lng .
hiu qu ca f2 so vi f1 l
V (f1)
=
EF =
V (f2)

p(1p)
3
p(1p)
4

4
1, 333
3

c, Coi nh W1 v W2 l hai mu ngu nhin c lp. Xt lp cc c lng tuyn tnh


= f1 + (1 )f2, ta c phng sai l
V () = V (f1 + (1 )f2) = 2 V (f1) + (1 )2V (f2)
p(1 p)
p(1 p)
p(1 p)
+ (1 )2
= (72 6 + 3)
= 2
3
4
12
2
g() = 7 6 + 3
g()
g()
= 6/14 = 3/7
V ()
4
3
7 f1 + 7 f2

. Kho st hm s
. Lc
l nh nht.
Vy c lng hiu qu hn c ca p l

ta tm c hm

t cc tiu ti

Bi 7.11/148

Gi X l mc chi tiu trung bnh.


Theo ra ta c (V ) = 3(U ) := 3. v U,V c lp.
a, Do U, V u l c lng khng chch nn E(U)=E(V)=X, ta c
1
1
(i) W1 = U + V
2
2
1
3
(ii) W2 = U + V
4
4
(iii) W3 = 1.U + 0.V

1
1
E(W1) = E(U ) + E(V ) = X
2
2
3
1
E(W2) = E(U ) + E(V ) = X
4
4
E(W3) = E(U ) = X

Nn W1, W2, W3 u l c lng khng chch ca X.


b, Ta s tnh phng sai ca cc W nh sau
(i) W1 = 12 U + 12 V nn
(ii)

1
1
2 9 2
10
V (W1) = V (U ) + V (V ) =
+
= 2
4
4
4
4
4
W2 = 34 U + 41 V

nn

V (W2) =

(iii) W3 = 1.U + 0.V nn

9
1
9 2 9 2
18
V (U ) + V (V ) =
+
= 2
16
16
16
16
16
V (W3) = V (U ) = 2

Nh vy ta c V (W3) < V (W2) < V (W1) nn W3 l c lng tt nht (hiu qu hn)


Bi 7.12/149

a. Ta c c lng hp l ti a ca tham s (trung bnh ca tng th phn phi chun)


l X . Vi mu c th ta tnh c
x=

17 + 28 + 92 + 41
= 44, 5
4

b. c lng hp l ti a ca tham s p ca quy lut A(p) l f. Vi mu c th ta tm


c
f=

8
= 0, 4
20
4

Bi 7.13/149

X P ()

. Mu n=3, w=(15,8,13). Ta c
x
i

f (xi, ) = e

xi !

i = 1, 3
x1 +x2 +x3
3

a. L(x1, x2, x3, ) = f (x1, )f (x2, )f (x3, ) = e

Vi x1 = 15, x2 = 8, x3 = 13ta c

x1 !x2!x3!

36
15+8+13
= e3
15!8!13!
15!8!13!
36
5
b. L( = 5) = e15
1, 356.108
15!8!13!
36
30 10
2, 8501.104
L( = 10) = e
15!8!13!
36
36 12
L( = 12) = e
= 5, 0075.104
15!8!13!
L() = e3

1536
1, 9043.104
L( = 15) = e
15!8!13!
36
60 20
L( = 20) = e
1, 8328.106
15!8!13!
2536
1, 728.109
L( = 25) = e75
15!8!13!
45

c. T kt qu tnh ton trn ta thy hm hp l t cc i ti = 12 = x +x3 +x .


d. Trong trng hp chung ta c hm hp l l
1

n
P

xi

i=1
L(x1, x2, ..., xn, ) = en
x1!x2!...xn!
n
X
ln L(x1, x2, ..., xn, ) = n + (ln )
xi ln(x1!x2!...xn!)
i=1

1
ln L(x1, x2, ..., xn, )
= n +

n
X

xi

i=1

ln L(x1, x2, ..., xn, )


1X
=0=
xi = x

n i=1
n

2 ln L(x1, x2, ..., xn, )


1 X
= 2
xi
2
i=1

2 ln L(x1, x2, ..., xn, )
nx

2 < 0

2
x
=x
x

Vy l c lng hp l ti a ca
Bi 7.14/150

. Mu kch thc n=5 l W = (X1, ..., X5). Hm mt xc sut l

ex vi x > 0
i = 1, 5
i
f (xi, ) =

0
vi xi < 0
Nh vy nu tn ti i sao cho xi < 0 th hm hp l trit tiu nn ta ch xt trng hp
xi > 0, i.
P
X E()

L(x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, ) =

5
Y

f (xi, ) = 5 e

xi

i=1

i=1

Vi x1 = 1, 2; x2 = 7, 5; x3 = 1, 8; x4 = 3, 7; x5 = 0, 8 ta c hm hp l l
L() = 5e15

a. Cc gi tr ca L
= 0, 1 L( = 0, 1) = 0, 15e15.0,1 = 0, 15e1,5 2, 2313.106

= 0, 2 L( = 0, 2) = 0, 25.e15.0,2 = 0, 25e3 15, 9319.106

= 0, 3 L( = 0, 3) = 0, 35e15.0,3 = 0, 35e4,5 26, 9947.106


= 0, 4 L( = 0, 4) = 0, 45e15.0,4 = 0, 45.e6 25, 3824.106

= 0, 5 L( = 0, 5) = 0, 55.e15.0,5 = 0, 55e7,5 17, 2839.106

Trong cc gi tr trn th L( = 0, 3) l ln nht.


b. Trong trng hp chung, vi n bt k ta c
L(x1, ..., xn, ) =

n
Y

f (xi, ) = e

i=1

ln L(x1, ..., xn, ) = n ln


ln L(x1, ..., xn, ) n
=

n
X
i=1

n
X

n
P

xi

i=1

xi

i=1

xi =

n
nx

ln L(x1, ..., xn, )


1
n
= 0 nx = 0 =

x
2
n
ln L(x1, ..., xn, )
=

< 0,
2
2
1/x

Vy c lng hp l cc i ca l
Trong trng hp n=5 trn th L( = 0, 3) l ln nht trong cc gi tr tnh ton
5
= 31 .
nhng cha phi l gi tr cc i.L() t cc i ti = x1 = 1,2+7,5+1,8+3,7+0,8
Khi gi tr cc i ca hm hp l l
L

1
1 5 15.(1/3)
1 5 5
=
e
=
e 27, 7282.106
3
3
3
6

Bi 7.15/150

Tng th vi bin ngu nhin

X B(n, p). Khi X l s ln xut hin bin c A trong n php th c lp

(lc Bernoulli).
T tng th rt ra mt mu ngu nhin kch thc m,

W = (X1 , ..., Xm)


ngha l ta thc hin m php th c lp,

A(p), i = 1, n. Ta c

Xi l s ln xut hin bin c A trong php th th i, th Xi

P (Xi = xi ) = f (xi, p) = pxi (1 p)1xi ;


Lc

X=

m
X

Xi ,

f=

i=1

xi = 0, 1.

X
m

a, Vi 1 mu c th kch thc m=5 ta tm c tn sut


f = 0, 6

.
Hm hp l l
L(x1, ..., x5, p) =

5
Y

f (xi, p) =

i=1
P5

=p

Ngha l

x = f.m = 0, 6.5 = 3

i=1

xi

5
Y

(1 p)

pxi (1 p)1xi

i=1
P5
5 i=1 xi

= px(1 p)5x

= p3(1 p)53 = p3(1 p)2

Vi cc gi tr c th ca p ta c
L(0)

L(p) = p3(1 p)2


= 03 .12

=0

L(0, 1) = 0, 13.0, 92 = 81.105


L(0, 2) = 0, 23.0, 82 = 512.105
L(0, 3) = 0, 33.0, 72 = 1323.105
L(0, 4) = 0, 43.0, 62 = 2304.105
L(0, 5) = 0, 53.0, 52 = 3125.105
L(0, 6) = 0, 63.0, 42 = 3456.105
L(0, 7) = 0, 73.0, 32 = 3087.105
7

L(0, 8) = 0, 83.0, 22 = 2048.105


L(0, 9) = 0, 93.0, 12 = 729.105
L(1)

= 13 .02

=0

Vy L(0,6) l ln nht.
b, Hm hp l
L(x1, ..., xm, p) =

m
Y

f (xi, p) =

i=1
Pm

=p

i=1 xi

m
Y

(1 p)

pxi (1 p)1xi

i=1
P
m m
i=1 xi

ln L(x1, ..., xm, p) = ln px(1 p)mx

= px(1 p)mx

= x ln p + (m x) ln(1 p)
1
1
x mp
ln L(x1, ..., xm, p)
= x + (m x)
=
p
p
1 p p(1 p)
ln L(x1, ..., xm, p)
x mp)
x
=0
=0 p=
=f
p
p(1 p)
m
2 ln L(x1, ..., xm, p) 2xp x mp2
=
p2
[p(1 p)]2

2
2
x
1)
x( m
2 xm x xm
2 ln L(x1, ..., xm, p)
=
<0
=

p2
[p(1 p)]2
[p(1 p)]2
p=x/m

do mx = f < 1.
Vy c lng hp l ti a ca p l f.
Bi 7.16/150

X: doanh s ca ca hng, X N (, 2 = 22).


y l bi ton c lng bng khong tin cy i xng gi tr ca tham s ca phn
phi chun khi bit 2
Khong tin cy l



X u/2; X + u/2
n
n
x = 8, 5; = 2; n = 600;
= 0, 05 u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96

Theo gi thit ta c

Khong tin cy l


2
2
1, 96; 8, 5 +
1, 96
8, 5
600
600

Bi 7.17/151

X: lng xng hao ph, X N (, 2)


8

= (8, 34; 8, 66)

y l bi ton c lng bng khong tin cy i xng gi tr tham s ca phn phi


chun khi cha bit 2 vi n 6 30.
Khi khong tin cy l


S
S
(n1)
(n1)
X t/2 ; X + t/2
n
n

Vi mu c th ta c n = 30;

= 0, 05
x=

s2 =

(n1)

t/2

(29)

= t0,025 = 2, 045

304
= 10, 1333
30

1
(3082, 14 (10, 1333)2.30) = 0, 0554
29

Vy khong tin cy l


s=

p
0, 0554 = 0, 235


0, 235
0, 235
2, 045; 10.1333 +
2, 045 = (10, 045; 10, 221)
10.1333
30
30

Bi 7.18/151

c lng khi cha bit 2. Khong tin cy l


vi mu c th c

S
S
(n1)
(n1)
X t/2 ; X + t/2
n
n

(n1)

(24)

n = 25; = 0, 05 t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 064


538
x=
= 21, 52
25
1
s2 = (11716 21, 522.25) = 5, 76
24
p
s = 5, 76 = 2, 4

Khong tin cy i xng l





2, 4
2, 4
21, 52 2, 064; 21, 52 + 2, 064 = (20, 53; 22, 51)
25
25

Bi 7.19/152

c lng khi cha bit 2. Khong tin cy l




S
S
(n1)
(n1)
X t/2 ; X + t/2
n
n

vi mu c th c
(24)

(n1)

n = 25; = 0, 05 t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 064


962, 5
= 38, 5
x=
25
1
s2 = (37706, 25 38, 52.25) = 27, 0833
24
p
s = 27, 0833 = 5, 204

Khong tin cy i xng l





5, 204
5, 204
2, 064; 38, 5 +
2, 064 = (36, 352; 40, 648)
38, 5
25
25

Bi 7.20/153

c lng khi cha bit 2. Khong tin cy l




vi mu c th c

S
S
(n1)
(n1)
X t/2 ; X + t/2
n
n

(24)

n = 25; = 0, 05 t0,025 = 2, 064; x = 40; s = 5

Khong tin cy i xng l





5
5
40 2, 064; 40 + 2, 064 = (37, 936; 42, 064)
25
25

Bi 7.21/153

c lng khi cha bit 2. Khong tin cy l




t bi c

S
S
(n1)
(n1)
X t/2 ; X + t/2
n
n

n = 25; = 0, 05

vi mu c th c

(n1)

t/2

(4)

= t0,025 = 2, 776

1X
xi = 2, 018
x=
5 i=1

5

1 X 2
s =
xi n.x2 = 2.105
4 i=1
2

Kt qu


s = 0, 0045


0, 0045
0, 0045
2, 018
2, 776; 2, 018
2, 776 = (2, 0124; 2, 0236)
5
5
10

Bi 7.22/154

c lng khi cha bit 2. Khong tin cy l




t bi c

S
S
(n1)
(n1)
X t/2 ; X + t/2
n
n

n = 100; = 0, 05

vi mu c th c

(n1)

t/2

(99)

= t0,025 u0,025 = 1, 96

1X
1
x=
1175, 5 = 11, 755
ni x i =
n i=1
100
p
1
s2 = (13820, 05 100.11, 7552) = 0, 0207 s = 0, 0207 = 0, 144
99

Kt qu


0, 144
0, 144
1, 96; 11, 755 +
1, 96 = (11, 727; 11, 783)
11, 755
100
100

Bi 7.23/154

c lng khi cha bit 2. Khong tin cy l




t bi ta c

S
S
(n1)
(n1)
X t/2 ; X + t/2
n
n

n = 100; = 0, 05

vi mu c th c
x=
s2 =

Kt qu


(n1)

t/2

(99)

= t0,025 u0,025 = 1, 96

1
9072 = 90, 72
100

1
(824732 100.90, 722) = 17, 3754
99

s = 4, 168


4, 168
4, 168
90, 72
1, 96; 90, 72 +
1, 96 = (89, 903; 91, 537)
10
10

Bi 7.24/155

a. c lng khi bit x2 = 32. Khong tin cy l


Ta c n = 36, = 0, 05
Kt qu


X u/2; X + u/2
n
n

u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96


3
3
x 1, 96; x + 1, 96 = (x 0, 98; x + 0, 98)
6
6
11

b. Vi = 0, 01 u0,005 = 2, 58. di khong tin cy i xng khng vt qu


Io = 0, 6cm th kch thc mu n phi tha mn

 

4.32
4 2 2
2, 582 = [665, 64]
u/2 =
n>
2
2
Io
0, 6

Vy ly n=666.
Bi 7.25/155

c lng khi bit x2 = 1, 22.


chnh xc ca c lng l = n u/2.
Mun chnh xc = 0, 3 v tin cy 1 = 0, 95 th kch thc mu phi tha
mn
 2

 
2
n>

2
1, 2
u
1, 962 = [61, 5]
=
/2
2
2

0, 3

Vy kch thc mu ti thiu l n=62


Bi 7.26/155

Gi X l sai s, X N (, 2 = 400).
Tm n sai s 0 6 15 vi chnh xc 95%
= 0, 05

u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96

S ln o n phi tha mn

 

2 2
400
2
n > 2 u/2 =
1, 96 = [6, 83]
0
152

Vy phi o t nht 7 ln.

Bi 7.27/155

X l nng sut ng A ca vng, X N (, 2) vi , 2 cha bit.


y l bi ton c lng bng khong tin cy bn phi gi tr ca khi cha bit 2 v
n < 30. Khi khong tin cy bn phi ca l

S
, +
x t(n1)

Vi tin cy (1 ), gi tr ti thiu ca l x Sn t(n1)

T bi

265
= 10, 6
25
104
1
s = 2, 082
s2 = (2913 25.10, 62) =
24
24
(24)
1 = 0, 95 t(n1)
= t0,05 = 1, 711

x=

Kt qu, gi tr ti thiu ca l

> 10, 6

2, 082
1, 711 = 9, 89
5
12

Bi 7.28/156

a) T mu ta c
450
= 18
25
1
s2 = (8244 25.182) = 6
24

x=

s=

6 = 2, 45

(24)
b) 1 = 0, 95 t(n1)
= t0,05 = 1, 711

Khong c lng bn tri ca vi tin cy (1 ) l


S
; x + t(n1)
n

Do vi tin cy 95% gi tr ti a ca l

s
2, 45
1, 711 = 18, 84
x + t(n1)
=
18

n
5
Bi 7.29/157

a) Gi X1 l trng lng ca 1 con nhm A, X2 l trng lng 1 con nhm B th


X1 N (1 , 12);

X1 N (2 , 22)

a) y l bi ton c lng bng khong tin cy i xng hiu 1 2 khi cha bit
1, 2 v cc rng buc khc. Khi khong tin cy l


(x1 x2 )

S12
n1

S22 (k)
t ; (x1
n2 /2

x2 ) +

S12 S22 (k)


+ t
n1 n2 /2

330 + 360 + 400 + 350


= 360
4
290 + 320 + 340 + 370
x2 =
= 330
4
2600
1
s1 = 29, 4392
s21 = (3302 + 3602 + 4002 + 3502 4.3602) =
3
3
1
3400
s22 = (2902 + 3202 + 3402 + 3702 4.3302) =
s = 33, 665
3
3
1 = 0, 95 /2 = 0, 025
x1 =

c=

s21
n1

s21
n1

k=
(k)

s22
n2

2600
3.4
2600
3400
3.4 + 3.4

2600 13
=
6000 30

(n1 1)(n2 1)
=
(n2 1)c2 + (n1 1)(1 c)2
3
(6)

t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 447

13

3.3

13 2
30

+3


17 2
30

=6

Kt qu
r

2600 3400
+
2, 447; (360 330) +
(360 330)
3.4
3.4
= (24, 72; 84, 72)


2600 3400
+
2, 447
3.4
3.4

b) Ta c X1 l trng lng ca mt con ln c n thm thc n ph sau 6 thng. X2


l trng lng ca mt con ln khng c n thm thc n ph sau su thng.
X1 N (1 , 12);

X2 N (2 , 22)

Li trung bnh thu c sau 6 thng l

L = 90(1 2 ) 80
Bi 7.30/157

Gi X1, X2 tng ng l thu nhp hng nm ca n v nam nhn vin. Theo gi thit ta
c X1 N (1, 12); X2 N (2, 22), trong 1, 2, 12, 22 u cha bit.
y l bi ton c lng hiu 1 2 khi cha bit cc phng sai v khng c c s
cho rng chng bng nhau. Do khong tin cy mc (1 ) ca 1 2 l


(X 1 X 2 )

S12
n1

S22 (k)
t ; (X 1
n2 /2

X 2) +

S12 S22 (k)


+ t
n1 n2 /2

T mu c th ta tm c

9 + 12 + 8 + 10 + 16
= 11
5
16 + 19 + 12 + 11 + 22
x2 =
= 16
5
(9 11)2 + (12 11)2 + (8 11)2 + (10 11)2 + (16 11)2
2
= 10
s1 =
4

s1 = 10 = 3, 16
x1 =

(16 16)2 + (19 16)2 + (12 16)2 + (11 16)2 + (22 16)2
= 21, 5
=
4
p
s2 = 21, 5 = 4, 64

s22

c=

k=

s21
n1

s21
n1

s22
n2

10
5

10
5

21,5
5

= 0, 3175

4.4
(n1 1)(n2 1)
=
= 7, 1
(n2 1)c2 + (n1 1)(1 c)2
4.0, 31752 + 4.0, 68252

(8)
(k)
= t0,025 = 2, 306
Vi 1 = 0, 95 /2 = 0, 025 t/2

14

Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng i xng ca 1 2 l


s


s22 (k)
s22 (k)
s21
s21
+ t ; (x1 x2 ) +
+ t
(x1 x2 )
n1 n2 /2
n1 n2 /2
r
r


10 21, 5
10 21, 5
= (11 16)
+
2, 306; (11 16) +
+
2, 306
5
5
5
5


=(10, 788; 0, 788)


Bi 7.31/158

l ch s thng minh ca 1 a tr c m ung ru ...


l ch s thng minh ca mt a tr c m khng ung ru...
Bi ton c lng bng khong tin cy i xng khi cha bit 12, 22 v cc rng buc
khc. Do khong tin cy mc (1 ) ca 1 2 l
X1 N (1 , 12)
X2 N (1 , 22)

(X 1 X 2 )

Ta c

S12
n1

S22 (k)
t ; (X 1
n2 /2

X 2) +

S12 S22 (k)


+ t
n1 n2 /2

x1 = 78
1 X
1
(x1i x1)2 = 1805 = 275, 875
n1 1
7
x2 = 99
1 X
1
2
11520 = 256
(x2i x2)2 =
s2 =
n2 1
45
s
r
s22
s21
257, 875 256
+
=
+
6, 148
n1 n2
8
46

s21 =

1 = 0, 95
c=

s21
n1

s21
n1

s22
n1

/2 = 0, 025

257,875
8
257,875
+ 256
8
46

= 0, 8528

(n1 1)(n2 1)
= 9, 58 10
(n2 1)c2 + (n1 1)(1 c)2

(k)

(10)

t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 228

Khong tin cy i xng ca 1 2 l


s

s21

s21
s2 (k)
+
+ 2 t/2
x2 ) +
(x1 x2 )
n1
n1 n2

= (78 99) 6, 148.2, 228; (78 99) + 6, 148.2, 228

s22 (k)
t ; (x1
n2 /2

= (34, 7; 7, 3)

15

Vy vi tin cy 95% ta c 7, 3 < 2 1 < 34, 7.


Bi 7.32/159

Gi X, Y ln lt l doanh s ca cng ty trc v sau qung co. Theo gi thit X, Y


phn phi chun v 1, 2 l doanh s trung bnh tng ng. Mc tng doanh s trung
bnh l D = 1 2.
Khi khong tin cy i xng ca D vi tin cy 95% l


SD (n1)
SD (n1)
D t/2 ; D + t/2
n
n

(5)
Vi tin cy 95% 1 = 0, 95 /2 = 0, 025 t(n1)
/2 = t0,025 = 2, 571
T mu c th ta c bng sau
Trc qung co Sau qung co d1 (di d) (di d)2
620
660
40
20
400
600
620
20
0
0
640
670
30
10
100
630
620
-10
-30
900
570
580
10
-10
100
600
630
30
10
100
Tng
120
1600
Trong

1X
120
d=
= 20
xi =
n
6
1600
1 X
2
= 320
(di d)2 =
sD =
n1
5

Vy vi tin cy 95%, khong tin cy ca D l

sD =

320 = 17, 89


sD (n1)
sD (n1)
d t/2 ; d + t/2
n
n


17, 89
17, 89
= 20 2, 571; 20 + 2, 571
6
6
=(1, 22; 38, 78)
Bi 7.33/159

X l s lng su bt c trc khi phun thuc ca 1 tha rung


Y l s su bt c sau khi phun thuc.
Mu gm cc cc s liu theo cp.
t D=Y-X D = 2 1 l s su gim i trung bnh sau khi dng thuc.
16

y l bi ton c lng gi tr D bng khong tin cy i xng khi cha bit 2 v


n<30. Khi khong c lng ca D l


T mu c th ta c

S (n1)
S (n1)
D t/2 ; D + t/2
n
n

Tha rung
1
2
3
4
5
Tng

xi

yi

109
68
82
104
93

107
72
88
101
97


d2i

di

-2
4
6
-3
4
9

4
16
36
9
16
81

1X
9
di = = 1, 8
n
5
X
 1
1
d2i n.di = (81 5.1, 82) = 16, 2
s2 =
n1
4
(n1)
(4)
1 = 0, 95 t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 776

d=

s = 4, 025

Vy khong tin cy ca D = 2 1 l



s (n1)
s (n1)
d t/2 ; d + t/2
n
n

4, 025
4, 025
= 1, 8 2, 776; 1, 8 + 2, 776
5
5
= (3, 197; 6, 797)

Bi 7.34/160

Gi X1, X2 ln lt l thi gian dng my trc v sau khi ci tin k thut.


y l bi ton c lng hiu hai k vng ton 1 2 ca phn phi chun khi cha
bit 1, 2 v cc rng buc khc. Khi khong tin cy i xng ca 1 2


(X 1 X 2 )

S12
n1

S22 (k)
t ; (X 1
n2 /2

17

X 2) +

S12 S22 (k)


+ t
n1 n2 /2

n1 = n2 = 30;
x1 = 65, 3;

x2 = 60, 4

s1 = 7; s2 = 6
s
r
s22
s21
49 36
+
=
+
= 1, 6833
n1 n2
30 30
c=
k=

s21
n1

s21
n1

s22
n2

49
30
49
30

36
30

= 0, 5765

(n1 1)(n2 1)
29.29
=
= 56, 67
(n2 1)c2 + (n1 1)2(1 c)2
29.0, 57652 + 29.0, 42352

k = 57;

Kt qu


1 = 0, 95

(x1 x2 )

s21
n1

(57)

(k)

t/2 = t0,025 u0,025 = 1, 96

s22 (k)
t ; (x1
n2 /2

x2 ) +

s22 (k)
s21
+ t
n1 n2 /2

= (65, 3 60, 4) 1, 6833.1, 96; (65, 3 60, 4) 1, 6833.1, 96


= (1, 6; 8, 2)

Bi 7.35/160

Gi X, Y l tin gi tit kim ca dn thnh ph A v thnh ph B.


X N (1 , 1 = 0, 517);

x = 1, 317;

n1 = 230

Y N (2 , 2 = 0, 485); y = 1, 512; n2 = 302


s
r
12 22
0, 5172 0, 4852
+
=
+
= 0, 044057
n1 n2
230
302
1 = 0, 95

u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96

y l bi ton c lng 1 2 khi bit 12, 22. Khong tin cy i xng l




(x y)

12
n1

22
n2

u/2; (x y) +

12 22
+ u/2
n1 n2

= (1, 317 1, 512) 0, 044057.1, 96; (1, 317 1, 512) + 0, 044057.1, 96

= (0, 28135; 0, 10865)

Vy vi tin cy 95% c th kt lun 0, 10865 < 2 1 < 0, 28135


Bi 7.36/161

18

Gi X, Y l tui th ca ngi nghin thuc v khng nghin thuc.


X N (1 , 12);

x = 68, 1;

s1 = 8, 2

Y N (2, 22); n2 = 400; y = 77, 3;


s
r
s21
8, 22 5, 32
s22
+
=
+
= 0, 543
n1 n2
300
400

s2 = 5, 3

c=
k=

s21
n1
s21
n1

s22
n2

n1 = 300;

8,22
300
8,22
300

5,32
400

= 0, 76143

299.399
(n1 1)(n2 1)
=
= 480, 4
(n2 1)2c2 + (n1 1)2(1 c)2
399.0, 761432 + 299.0, 238572

k = 481;

1 = 0, 95

Kt qu


(x y)

s21
n1

(481)

(k)

t/2 = t0,025 u0,025 = 1, 96

s22 (k)
t ; (x
n2 /2

y) +

s21
s22 (k)
+ t
n1 n2 /2

= (68, 1 77, 3) 0, 543.1, 96; (68, 1 77, 3) 0, 543.1, 96


= (10, 263; 8, 137)

Vy vi tin cy 95% ta c 8, 137 < 2 1 < 10, 263


Bi 7.37/161

X, Y l li sut ngn hng ca nc pht trin v nc ang pht trin


X N (1 , 12);

n1 = 7;

x = 17, 5;

Y N (2 , 22); n2 = 11; y = 15, 3;


s
r
s22
s21
3, 22 2, 92
+
=
+
= 1, 493
n1 n2
7
11
c=

k=

s11
n1
s21
n1

s22
n2

3,22
7
3,22
7

2,92
11

s1 = 3, 2
s2 = 2, 9

= 0, 657

6.10
(n1 1)(n2 1)
=
= 11, 95
(n2 1)c2 + (n1 1)(1 c)2
10.0, 6572 + 6.0, 3432

k = 12;

1 = 0, 95

(k)

(12)

t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 179

19

Khong tin cy i xng ca 1 2 vi tin cy 95% l




(x y)

s21
n1

s22 (k)
t ; (x
n2 /2

y) +

s22 (k)
s21
+ t
n1 n2 /2

= (17, 5 15, 3) 1, 493.2, 179; (17, 5 15, 3) + 1, 493.2, 179


= (1, 053; 5, 453)

Bi 7.38/161

X, Y l mc lm pht do cc nh kinh t 2 khu vc d on


X N (1 , 12);

14, 3
4, 7667; s21 = 0, 4547
3
41, 7
y=
= 5, 2125; s22 = 0, 2984
8

n1 = 6;

x=

Y N (2 , 22); n2 = 8;
s
s22
s21
+
= 0, 3363
n1 n2
c=
k=

s21
n1
s21
n1

s22
n2

0,4547
6
0,4547
+ 0,2984
6
8

= 0, 67

5.7
(n1 1)(n2 1)
=
= 79, 5
(n2 1)c2 + (n1 1)(1 c)2
7.0.672 + 5.0.332

k = 10;

1 = 0, 95

(k)

(10)

t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 228

Khong tin cy i xng ca 1 2 vi tin cy 95% l




(x y)

s21
n1

s22 (k)
t ; (x
n2 /2

y) +

s21
s22 (k)
+ t
n1 n2 /2

= (4, 7667 5, 2125) 0, 3363.2, 228; (4, 7667 5, 2125) 0, 3363.2, 228
= (1, 195; 0, 303)

Bi 7.39/162

Gi p l t l chnh phm ca nh my .
y l bi ton c lng tham s p ca quy lut A(p) bng khong tin cy i xng.
Do mu kim tra c kch thc kh ln nn khong tin cy ca p l


p
p

f (1 f )
f (1 f )

f
u/2; f +
u/2
n
n

Vi f = 10010
100 = 0, 9
1 = 0, 95

/2 = 0, 025

u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96

20

Vy khong tin cy ca p l
0

0, 9.0, 1
0, 9
1, 96; 0, 9 +
10
= (0, 84; 0, 96)


0, 9.0, 1
1, 96
10

Bi 7.40/162

Gi p l t l ht ny mm. y l bi ton c lng tham s p ca quy lut A(p) bng


khong tin cy i xng.
Do mu kim tra c kch thc kh ln nn khong tin cy mc 1 ca p l
T bi ta c

p
p

f (1 f )
f (1 f )

f
u/2; f +
u/2
n
n

1 = 0, 09

u = u0,025 = 1, 96
860
n = 1000; f =
= 0, 86
1000
p
p


f (1 f )
f (1 f )

f
u/2; f +
u/2
n
n



0, 86.0, 14
0, 86.0, 14
1, 96; 0, 86 +
1, 96
= 0, 86
1000
1000
= (0, 8385; 0, 8815)
Bi 7.41/162

Gi p l t l hp b bin cht. Khong tin cy mc 1 ca p l


T bi ta c

p
p

f (1 f )
f (1 f )

u/2
f
u/2; f +
n
n

1 = 0, 09

Kt qu

u = u0,025 = 1, 96
8
n = 200; f =
= 0, 04
200




0, 04.0, 96
0, 04.0, 96

1, 96; 0, 04 +
1, 96
0, 04
200
200
= (0, 01284; 0, 067)

Bi 7.42/162

Gi p l t l ng vi kin B. Khong tin cy mc 1 ca p l




p
p

f (1 f )
f (1 f )

f
u/2; f +
u/2
n
n
21

T bi ta c
1 = 0, 09

Kt qu

u = u0,025 = 1, 96
150
n = 200; f =
= 0, 75
200


0, 75.0, 25
0, 75.0, 25

1, 96; 0, 75 +
0, 75
1, 96
200
200
= (0, 69; 0, 81)

Bi 7.43/162

Gi p l t lht ging khng ny mm. Khi vi tin cy 1 th gi tr ti a


)
u .
ca p l f + f(1f
n
T bi ta c
20
= 0, 05
400
1 = 0, 95; u = u0,05 = 1, 64

n = 400;

f=

Vy vi p tin cy 95% th
p<f+

f (1 f )

u = 0, 05 +
n

0, 05.0, 95

1, 64 = 0, 06787
400

Bi 7.44/163

Gi p l t l phiubu cho ng c vin A. Khi vi tin cy 1 th gi tr ti


)
u .
thiu ca p l f f(1f
n
T bi ta c
n = 1600;

960
= 0, 6
1600
u = u0,01 = 2, 33

f=

1 = 0, 99

Vy vi p tin cy 95% th
p>f

f (1 f )
0, 6.0, 4

u = 0, 6
2, 33 = 0, 5715
n
1600

Bi 7.45/163

Gi pl t l sn phm loi 1. Khi vi tin cy 1 th gi tr ti a ca p l


f (1f )
f + n u .

22

T bi ta c
160
= 0, 4
400
1 = 0, 95; u = u0,05 = 1, 64

n = 400;

f=

Vy vi p tin cy 95% th
p<f+

f (1 f )

u = 0, 05 +
n

0, 4.0, 6

1, 64 = 0, 44017
400

Bi 7.46/163

Gi p l t l ht ny mm. Ta cn xc nh kch thc mu n vi tin cy 95%,


di khong tin cy khng qu I0 = 0, 02.
bi f = 0, 9; u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96. Khi


 

4f (1 f ) 2
4.0, 9.0, 1
n>
u/2 =
1, 96 = [3457, 44]
I02
0, 022

Vy phi gieo 3458 ht.


Bi 7.47/163

Gi p1, p2 tng ng l t l ngi ht thuc l vo nm 1990 v 1997. Lc mc


chnh lch v t l ngi ht thuc l l p1 p2.
y l bi ton c lng hiu hai tham s p ca hai bin ngu nhin phn phi khng
- mt. Do n1 = 1500, n2 = 1000 l ln nn khong tin cy i xng ca p1 p2 vi
tin cy 1 = 0, 95 l
(f1 f2 ) sf u/2; (f1 f2) + sf u/2

Vi hai mu cho ta tm c

f1 = 0, 43;
f2 = 0, 38
r
0, 43.0, 57 0, 38.0, 62
+
= 0, 02
sf =
1500
1000

Do 1 = 0, 95 u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96.


Vy khong tin cy ca p1 p2 l

((0, 43 0, 38) 0, 02.1, 96; (0, 43 0, 38) + 0, 02.1, 96) = (0, 01085; 0, 08915)
Bi 7.48/163

Gi p1, p2 l t l ph phm ca x nghip A v B. Khi s chnh lch v t l ph


phm gia hai x nghip l p1 p2. Khong tin cy ca p1 p2 vi tin cy 1 l
(f1 f2 ) Sf u/2; (f1 f2) + Sf u/2
23

T bi ta c
7
= 0, 07
100
12
n2 = 150; f2 =
= 0, 08
150
1 = 0, 95 u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96
s
r
f1 (1 f1) f2(1 f2 )
0, 07.0, 93 0, 08.0, 92
+
=
+
= 0, 03379
sf =
n1
n2
100
150

n1 = 100;

f1 =

Kt qu l

(f1 f2 ) sf u/2; (f1 f2) + sf u/2

= (0, 07 0, 08) 0, 03379.1, 96; (0, 07 0, 08) + 0, 03379.1, 96


= (0, 07623; 0, 05623)

Bi 7.49/164

Gi p1, p2 l t l sinh con th ba vo nm 1980 v 1995. Khi s chnh lch v t l


sinh con th ba gia hai nm l p1 p2. Vy khong tin cy ca p1 p2 vi tin cy
1 l

T bi ta c

(f1 f2 ) Sf u/2; (f1 f2) + Sf u/2

30
= 0, 03
1000
15
n2 = 800; f2 =
= 0, 01875
800
1 = 0, 95 u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96
r
0, 03.0, 97 0, 01875.0, 98125
sf =
+
= 0, 0722
1000
800

n1 = 1000;

Kt qu l

f1 =

(f1 f2) sf u/2; (f1 f2) + sf u/2

= (0, 03 0, 01875) 0, 0722.1, 96; (0, 03 0, 01875) 0, 0722.1, 96


= (0, 0029; 0, 0254)

Bi 7.50/164

Gi p1, p2 t l gia nh c chi ph tang l trn 2 triu trong s cc gia nh cng nhn
v trong s cc gia nh thng nhn. S chnh lch gia 2 nhm l p1 p2. Khong tin
cy ca p1 p2 vi tin cy 1 l
(f1 f2 ) Sf u/2; (f1 f2) + Sf u/2
24

T bi ta c

61
= 0, 3765
162
106
= 0, 5608
n2 = 189; f2 =
189
1 = 0, 95 u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96
r
0, 3765.0, 6235 0, 5608.0, 4392
sf =
+
= 0, 05246
162
189
n1 = 162;

f1 =

Kt qu l

(f1 f2) sf u/2 ; (f1 f2) + sf u/2

= (0, 3765 0, 5608) 0, 05246.1, 96; (0, 3765 0, 5608) + 0, 05246.1, 96)

= (0, 2873; 0, 0815)


Bi 7.51/164

Gi p1 p2 l t l sinh vin xut thn t nng thn v t thnh th i lm thm. Khong


tin cy ca p1 p2 vi tin cy 1 l
T bi ta c

(f1 f2 ) Sf u/2; (f1 f2) + Sf u/2

30
= 0, 2
150
17
= 0, 12143
n2 = 140; f2 =
140
1 = 0, 95 u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96
r
0, 2.0, 8 0, 12143.0, 87857
sf =
+
= 0, 043
150
140

n1 = 150;

Kt qu l

f1 =

(f1 f2) sf u/2; (f1 f2) + sf u/2

= (0, 2 0, 12143) 0, 043.1, 96; (0, 2 0, 12143) + 0, 043.1, 96

= (0, 00524; 0, 1624)


Bi 7.52/165

Gi X l trng lng thnh phn chnh trong mi vin thuc, X N (, 2), trong
, 2 u cha bit.
y l bi ton c lng 2 khi cha bit . Khi khong tin cy ca 2 vi tin
cy 1 l


2
2
(n 1)S
2(n1)

/2

(n 1)S

25

2(n1)

1/2

T bi ta c
n = 16;
2(n1)

s2 = 0, 0775;
2(15)

1 = 0, 95

= 0, 05

2(15)

2(n1)

/2 = 0,025 = 37, 49; 1/2 = 0,975 = 6, 262



 

(n 1)s2 (n 1)s2
15.0, 0775 15.0, 0775
; 2(n1)
=
;
= (0, 031; 0, 186)
2(n1)
37, 49
6, 262
/2
1/2

0, 176 < < 0, 431

Bi 7.53/165

Gi X l li sut c phiu
bi ton c lng 2 khi cha bit .
khong tin cy ca 2 vi tin cy 1 l

n = 5;
2(n1)

(n 1)S 2 (n 1)S 2
; 2(n1)
2(n1)
/2
1/2

1 = 0, 9
2(4)


s2 = 24, 7

/2 = 0, 05;
2(n1)

2(4)

/2 = 0,05 = 9, 488; 1/2 = 0,95 = 0, 7107


 


4.24, 7 4.24, 7
(n 1)S 2 (n 1)S 2
;
; 2(n1)
=
= (10, 413; 139, 018)
2(n1)
9, 488 0, 7107
/2
1/2

3, 23 < < 11, 79

Bi 7.54/165

Gi X l lng sa ca mt con b trong mt chu k vt sa


bi ton c lng 2 khi cha bit .
khong tin cy ca 2 vi tin cy 1 l

n = 15;
2(n1)

(n 1)S 2 (n 1)S 2
; 2(n1)
2(n1)
/2
1/2

1 = 0, 95
2(14)

= 0, 05;
2(n1)

s2 = 4607853, 4

2(14)

/2 = 0,025 = 26, 12; 1/2 = 0,975 = 5, 629




 
(n 1)S 2 (n 1)S 2
14.4607853, 4 14.4607853, 4
;
; 2(n1)
=
2(n1)
26, 12
5, 629
/2
1/2
= (2469753; 11460285, 5)

1571, 5 < < 3385, 3


26

Bi 7.55/166

Gi X l kch thc chi tit


bi ton c lng 2 khi cha bit
khong tin cy ca 2 vi tin cy 1 l

(n 1)S 2 (n 1)S 2
; 2(n1)
2(n1)
/2
1/2

n = 25;
2(n1)

1 = 0, 95
2(24)

= 0, 05;
2(n1)

s2 = 4, 833

2(14)

/2 = 0,025 = 39, 36; 1/2 = 0,975 = 12, 40


 


24.4, 833 24.4, 833
(n 1)S 2 (n 1)S 2
;
; 2(n1)
=
2(n1)
39,
36
12, 40
/2
1/2
= (2, 947; 9, 354)
1, 717 < < 3, 058

Bi 7.56/166

l trng lng ca mt con ln c n thm thc n ph sau 6 thng.


X2 N (2 , 22) l trng lng ca mt con ln khng c n thm thc n ph sau
su thng.
Vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng ca 22/12 l

X1 N (1 , 12)

T bi 7.29 ta c

2600
;
3

S22 (n1 1,n21) S22 (n1 1,n21)


; 2 f/2
f
S12 1/2
S1

3400
(3,3)
(n 1,n2 1)
= f0,025 = 15, 44
; f/21
3
1
1
(3,3)
(n1 1,n2 1)
= 0, 065
= f0,975 = (3,3) =
f1/2
15, 44
f0,025
  3400
 2

3400
s2 (n1 1,n21) s22 (n1 1,n21)
3
3
; 2 f/2
= 2600
f1/2
0, 065; 2600
15, 44
2
s1
s1
3
3
s21 =

s22 =

= (0, 0847; 20, 191)


Bi 7.57/166

T bi 7.32 ta c X, Y ln lt l doanh s ca cng ty trc v sau qung co th


X N (1 , 12),

Y N (1 , 22)

Ta cn c lng 22/12 (do s21 < s22).


Vi tin cy 95%, khong c lng ca 22/12 l

S22 (n1 1,n21) S22 (n1 1,n21)


; 2 f/2
f
S12 1/2
S1
27

Tra bng gi tr ti hn Fisher ta c


(n 1,n2 1)

1
f1/2

(n 1,n2 1)

f/21

(61,61)

= f10,025

1
(5,5)

f0,025

1
= 0, 14
7, 15

(5,5)

= f0,025 = 7, 15

T bi ta c
620 + 600 + 640 + 630 + 570 + 600
= 610
6
1
s21 = (102 + 102 + 302 + 20 + 2 + 40 + 2 + 102) = 640
5
660 + 620 + 670 + 620 + 580 + 630
x2 =
= 630
6
1
s22 = (302 + 102 + 40 + 2 + 102 + 502 + 02) = 1040
5
x1 =

Vy khong tin cy ca 22/22 l




S22 (n1 1,n21) S22 (n1 1,n21)


; 2 f/2
f
S12 1/2
S1

1040
1040
0, 14;
7, 15
640
640

= (0, 2275; 11, 6188)

Bi 7.58/166

c lng 22/12. T bi c n1 = n2 = 10;


1 = 0, 95

(n 1,n2 1)

f/21

(n 1,n2 1)

1
f1/2

(9,9)

= f0,975 =

Khong c lng l


s22 (n11,n2 1) s22 (n1 1,n21)


; 2 f/2
f
s21 1/2
s1

s21 = 10, 5;

s22 = 12, 7667

(9,9)

= f0,025 = 4, 03

1
(9,9)
f0,025

= 0, 248

12, 7667
12, 7667
0, 248;
4, 03
10, 5
10, 5

= (0, 3; 4, 9)

Bi 7.64/169

a) Gi X1, X2 l nhit chu la ca gch c v gch mi


X1 N (1 , 12);

X2 N (2 , 22)

Bi ton c lng bng khong tin cy i xng gi tr ca tham s ca phn phi


chun khi cha bit phng sai v n<30. Khi khong tin cy mc 1 ca l


S (n1)
S (n1)
X t/2 ; X + t/2
n
n
28

Vi gch c
n1 = 5;

s21 = 916, 5;

x1 = 463;

s1 = 30, 274

(4)

(n 1)

= t0,025 = 2, 776
1 = 0, 95 t/21

30, 274
30, 274
KQ 463 2, 776; 463 + 2, 776 = (425, 416; 500, 584)
5
5
425, 416 < 1 < 500, 584

Vi tin cy 95% th
Vi gch mi
n2 = 5;

x2 = 467;

s22 = 839, 5;

s2 = 28, 974

(4)

(n1)

1 = 0, 95 t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 776



28, 974
28, 974
KQ 467 2, 776; 467 + 2, 776 = (431, 03; 512, 97)
5
5

431, 03 < 1 < 512, 97

Vi tin cy 95% th
b) Nhit chu la tng ln trung bnh ca loi gch mi so vi gch c l 2 1.
Khong c lng ca 2 1 vi tin cy 1 l


(X 2 X 1 )

S12
n1

S22 (k)
t ; (X 2
n2 /2

X 1) +

S12 S22 (k)


+ t
n1 n2 /2

n1 = n2 = 5; x1 = 463; s21 = 916, 5; x2 = 467;


s
s21
s21
s22
+
= 41, 905; c = s2 n1 s2 = 0, 523
1
n1 n2
+ 2
n1

k=

s22 = 839, 5

n2

(n1 1)(n2 1)
= 7, 98 8
(n2 1)c2 + (n1 1)2(1 c)2

k = 8;
KQ

1 = 0, 95

(k)

(8)

t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 306

(467 463) 41, 905.2, 306; (467 463) + 41, 905.2, 306

= (39, 215; 47, 215)

Bi 7.65/170

1 = 0, 99 = 0, 01; 0 = 0, 005;
 


f (1 f )
f (1 f ) 2
2
u/2 =
2, 575
n>
20
0, 0052
Bi 7.66/170

N=380; n=38
29

u/2 = u0,005 = 2, 575

a) Gi X l khi lng g mi cy, X N (, 2)


y l bi ton c lng gi tr ca tham s khi cha bit 2. Khong c lng ca
vi tin cy 1 l


S (n1)
S (n1)
X t/2 ; X + t/2
n
n

x = 44, 21;

s2 = 284, 5;
(n1)

s = 16, 867
(37)

1 = 0, 95; t/2 = t0,025 u0,025 = 1, 96



16, 867
16, 867
1, 96; 44, 21 +
1, 96 = (38, 85; 49, 57)
KQ 44, 21
38
38

b) Gi Y l tng khi lng g khai thc c t 380 cy g


Y = X1 + X2 + ... + X3 80

trong Xi N (, 2), i v cc Xi c lp vi nhau. Tng khi lng g khai thc


c trung bnh l 380.. Theo cu (a) ta suy ra
380.38, 85 < 380 < 380.49, 57

14763 < 380 < 18836, 6

Bi 7.67/170

a) Vic c c du hay khng xem nh l bin ngu nhin phn phi 0 - 1. Gi N l s


c hin c trong h; p l t l c c nh du, p = 2000
N
Bi ton a n vic c lng bng khong tin cy i xng tham s p ca bin ngu
nhin phn phi A(p) khi kch thc mu n > 100.
Cng thc c lng l


P f

Vi mu c th ta c

f (1 f )
u/2; f
sqrtn

f (1 f )
u/2
sqrtn

=1

80
n = 400; f =
= 0, 2; 1 = 0, 95; u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96
400


0, 2.0, 8
0, 2.0, 8
1, 96; 0, 2
0, 2
1, 96
400
400
= (0, 1608; 0, 2392)
2000
2000
<N <
8361, 2 < N < 12437, 8
0, 2392
0, 1608

f (1f )
0 = /2 = 2n u/2

b) Mun sai s ca c lng gim i mt na, ngha l


kch thc mu m phi tha mn
m>

f (1 f ) 2
u/2 = 4n = 4.400 = 1600
20
30

, th

Bi 7.68/171

a) Gi X1, X2 ln lt l t l thu hi vn ca d n 1 v d n 2. Khi cng thc c


lng t l thu hi vn trung bnh l


D n 1 c

S (n1)
S (n1)
X t/2 ; X t/2
n
n

n1 = 10;

x1 = 13, 2;

s1 =
(n1)

D n 2 c

p
10, 9 3, 3
(9)

1 = 0, 95 t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 262




s1 (n1)
s1 (n1)
x1 t/2 ; x1 t/2
n
n

3, 3
3, 3
= 13, 2 2, 262; 13, 2 + 2, 262 = (10, 84; 15, 56)
10
10
n2 = 10;

p
s2 = 25, 6 5, 06

x2 = 14, 6;

(n1)

(9)

1 = 0, 95 t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 262




s2 (n1)
s2 (n1)
x2 t/2 ; x2 t/2
n
n

5, 06
5, 06
= 14, 6 2, 262; 14, 6 + 2, 262 = (11, 46; 17, 74)
10
10

b) Cng thc c lng phng sai



2(n1)

/2

D n 1
D n 2




(n 1)S 2 (n 1)S 2
; 2(n1)
2(n1)
/2
1/2

2(9)

= 0,025 = 19, 02;

(n 1)s21 (n 1)s21
; 2(n1)
2(n1)
/2
1/2

(n 1)s22 (n 1)s22
; 2(n1)
2(n1)
/2
1/2


2(9)

2(n1)

1/2 = 0,975 = 2, 7


= (5, 16; 36, 33)

= (12, 11; 85, 33)

9.10, 9 9.10, 9
;
19, 02 2, 7

9.25, 6 9.25, 6
;
19, 02 2, 7

Bi 7.69/171

a) X: chi ph cho gio trnh, X N (, 2).


c lng khi cha bit 2. Cng thc c lng l


S (n1)
S (n1)
X t/2 ; X + t/2
n
n
31

n = 144;

x = 190;

s = 30
(143)

(n1)

1 = 0, 95 t/2 = t0,025 u0,025 = 1, 96




s (n1)
s (n1)
KQ
x t/2 ; x + t/2
n
n


30
30
1, 96; 190 +
1, 96 = (185, 1; 194, 9)
= 190
144
144

b) Mun chnh xc 0 = 3 (ngn) th kch thc mu l

  2

s2 (n1) 2
30
2
n > 2 t/2
=
1, 96 = [384, 16]
0
32


Vy n=385.
Bi 7.70/172

Gi X1, X2 l im ca hc sinh chuyn ban v khng chuyn ban; X1 N (1, 12);


X2 N (2 , 22).
Bi ton c lng 1 2 khi cha bit cc phng sai . Cng thc c lng l


(X 1 X 2 )

n1 = 68;

S12
n1

S22 (k)
t ; (X 1
n2 /2

s21 = 1, 142 = 1, 2996;

X 2) +

S12 S22 (k)


+ t
n1 n2 /2

x1 = 7, 66

n2 = 64; s22 = 1, 092 = 1, 1071; x2 = 7, 32


s
r
2
2
s1
1, 2996 1, 1071
s
+ 2 =
+
= 0, 191
n1 n2
68
64
c=
k=

s21
n1

s21
n1

s22
n2

= 0, 525

67.63
(n1 1)(n2 1)
=
= 129, 95
(n2 1)c2 + (n1 1)(1 c)2
63.0, 5252 + 67.0, 4752
(k)

(130)

k = 130; 1 = 0, 95 t/2 = t0,025 u0,025 = 1, 96




KQ
(7, 66 7, 32) 0, 191.1, 96; (7, 66 7, 32) + 0, 191.1, 96
= (0, 034; 0, 714)

Bi 7.72/173

Gi p l t l t lnh b hng.
a) Bi ton c lng gi tr ti thiu ca p. Vi tin cy (1 ) th gi tr ti thiu
)
u/2.
ca p l f f(1f
n
32

T bi c
12
0, 0706; u = u0,05 = 1, 64
170
p

f (1 f )
0, 0706.0, 9294

1, 64 = 0, 0384
p>f
u/2 = 0, 0706
n
170

n = 170;

f=

b) N=1000.
Vi tin cy 95% th t l t lnh hng ti a l
p<f+

f (1 f )

u/2 = 0, 0706 +
n

0, 0706.0, 9294

1, 64 = 0, 10282
170

N p < N.0, 10282 = 1000.0, 10282 = 102, 8

Vy s t lnh hng ti a l 102.


Bi 7.73/173

Gi X l s vn u t vo cc d n , X N (, 2)
Bi ton c lng khi cha bit 2. Cng thc l


S (n1)
S (n1)
X t/2 ; X + t/2
n
n


(n1)

(14)

n = 15; x = 11, 32; s = 4, 4; 1 = 0, 95 t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 145




4, 4
4, 4
KQ
11, 32 2, 145; 11, 32 + 2, 145 = (8, 883; 13, 757)
15
15
Bi 7.74/174

Gi X l tui th ca c quy, X N (, = 4, 5).


Mun sai lch khng qu 0 = 1 vi tin cy 1 = 0, 95 th kch thc mu phi
tha mn
 2
 

2
2
4, 5
u0,025 =
1, 962 = [77, 79]
2
2
0
1

n>

Vy phi kim tra ti thiu n=78 c quy.


Bi 7.75/174

Gi X l gi tht ln, X N (, 2). Cn c lng khi cha bit 2. Cng thc


Khong tin cy vi tin cy (1 ) l


S (n1)
S (n1)
X t/2 ; X + t/2
n
n

33

n = 128;

x = 25500;

s = 6500
(n1)

(127)

1 = 0, 99 t/2 = t0,005 u0,005 = 2, 575




6500
6500
KQ
25000
2, 575; 25000 +
2, 575
128
128
= (24020, 5; 26979, 5)
Bi 7.76/174

Khng

Bi 7.77/174

Gi p1, p2 l t l dn M ng h ... vo nm 1963 v 1968.


a) c lng p.Cng thc chung l


p
p

f (1 f )
f (1 f )

f
u/2; f +
u/2
n
n

trong u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96.


Nm 1963
Kq

160
n1 = 200; f1 =
= 0, 8
200




0, 8.0, 2
0, 8.0, 2
1, 96; 0, 8 +
1, 96 = (0, 74456; 0, 85544)
0, 8
200
200

Nm 1968
Kq

70
= 0, 35
n2 = 200; f2 =
200



0, 35.0, 65
0, 35.0, 65

0, 35
1, 96; 0, 35 +
1, 96 = (0, 2939; 0, 4161)
200
200

b) T l gim i l p1 p2. Cng thc

(f1 f2 ) Sf u/2; (f1 f2) + Sf u/2


Sf =

f1(1 f1 ) f1 (1 f2)
+
=
n1
n2

0, 8.0, 2 0, 35.0, 65
+
= 0, 044
200
200


(f1 f2) Sf u/2; (f1 f2 ) + Sf u/2

= (0, 8 0, 35) 0, 044.1, 96; (0, 8 0, 35) + 0, 044.1, 96

= (0, 3637; 0, 5363)


Bi 7.78/175

Gi X1, X2(%) l t l thu phng trc v sau chin dch qung co,
X1 N (1 , 12); X2 N (2 , 22).
34

Cn c lng 2 1. Cng thc




(X 2 X 1 )

S12
n1

S22 (k)
t ; (X 2
n2 /2

X 1) +

S12 S22 (k)


+ t
n1 n2 /2

n1 = 15; n2 = 16; 1 = 0, 95 /2 = 0, 025


1271
1468
= 84, 7333; x2 =
= 91, 75
x1 =
15
16

1
s21 =
108097 15.84, 73332 = 28, 6381
14

1
135068 16.91, 752 = 25, 2667
s22 =
s 15
r
2
2
s
s1
28, 6381 25, 2667
+ 2 =
+
= 7, 342
n1 n2
15
16
c=
k=

s21
n1

s21
n1

s22
n2

28,6381
15
28,6381
+ 25,2667
15
16

= 0, 5313

(n1 1)(n2 1)
14.15
=
= 28, 73
(n2 1)c2 + (n1 1)(1 c)2
15.0, 53132 + 14.0, 46872
(k)

Kq

(29)

k = 29; /2 = 0, 025 t/2 = t0,025 = 2, 045




(91, 75 84, 7333) 7, 342.2, 045; (91, 75 84, 7333) + 7, 342.2, 045

=(7, 9977; 22, 0311)


Bi 7.79/175

a) Gi p l t l mn hnh c khuyt tt, khong c lng ca p l




p
p

f (1 f )
f (1 f )

f
u/2; f +
u/2
n
n

4
= 0, 04
100
1 = 0, 99 u/2 = u0,005 = 2, 575



0, 04.0, 96
0, 04.0, 96

2, 575; 0, 04 +
2, 575
0, 04
100
100
= (0, 0105; 0, 0905)

n = 100;

Kt qu

f=

b) Nu n=10000. Vi tin cy 99% t l mn hnh khuyt tt ti a l


p<f+

f (1 f )

u = 0, 04 +
n
35

0, 04.0, 96

2, 33 = 0, 04457
10000

S mn hnh c khuyt tt ti a l 0, 04457.10000 = 445, 7 446.


Bi 7.80/175

a) Gi p l th phn tim nng ca doanh nghip.


800
= 0, 32; N = 1500000
C n = 2500; f = 2500
Chn lp thng k

(f p) n
G=U = p
N (0, 1)
f (1 f )
1
p
p


f (1 f )
f (1 f )

f
u/2; f +
u/2
n
n

Khong c lng i xng ca p vi tin cy

1 = 0, 95 /2 = 0, 025 u/2 = u0,025 = 1, 96





0, 32.0, 68
0, 32.0, 68
0, 32
1, 96; 0, 32 +
1, 96
2500
2500
= (0, 3017; 0, 3383)

0, 3017 < p < 0, 3383

b) M l s lng khch hng tim nng.


Do p = MN v 0, 3017 < p < 0, 3383 nn suy ra
0, 3017N < M < 0, 3383N

36

452550 < M < 507450