George J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham GEORGE J. GILBOY is a Senior Fellow at the MIT Center for International Studies and a 200810 Fellow of the National Committee on United States-China Relations. ERIC HEGINBOTHAM is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation. In May and June 2010 Chinese workers organized strikes, which spread across factories in southern China. By citing labor law protections passed in 2008, they secured tacit government approval for their labor action and got pay rises and better working conditions from their employers. In August Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao delivered a prominent speech warning that Chinas economy and national modernization process would be jeopardized if the country failed to undertake systemic political reform. In October, the jailed dissident Liu Xiaobo, one of hundreds of Chinese that signed a 2008 charter calling for constitutional democracy, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Together, these events called attention to the prospects for social and political reform in China. In fact, there is no indication that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will launch major political reforms in the near term. Wens speech did, however, identify Chinas central long-term challenge: on the one hand, Chinese society is growing more complex, demanding, and robust; on the other, its authoritarian state remains committed to maintaining a brittle form of social and political control. In a July/August 2001 Foreign Affairs article, Chinas Coming Transformation, we argued that emerging tensions between Chinas state and society would push forward social and political reform because any failure to reform would intensify social conflict, jeopardize economic growth, and undermine the CCPs ability to govern. At the same time, we warned, Chinas transformation could prove to be longer and more tumultuous than many have expected. This is a preview of a premium article. You must subscribe [1] to access the full text. If you are already a subscriber, please log in here [2]. Copyright 2002-2014 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. All rights reserved. To request permission to distribute or reprint this article, please fill out and submit a Permissions Request Form. If you plan to use this article in a coursepack or academic website, visit Copyright Clearance Center to clear permission. Return to Article: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66773/george-j-gilboy-and-eric-heginbotham/chinas-dilemma Home > Postscript > China's Dilemma Published on Foreign Affairs (http://www.foreignaffairs.com) Links: [1] http://www.foreignaffairs.com/subscribe?ban=APRNT [2] http://www.foreignaffairs.com/user