Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
-1-
August9,2015
8/10/2015
RayPadgett|raypadgett@shorefire.com
JamesRainis|jrainis@shorefire.com
MarkSatlof|msatlof@shorefire.com
T:718.522.7171
IntelligenceSquaredU.S.
Containmentisnotenough:
ISISmustbedefeated
FortheMotion:MichleFlournoy,PhilipZelikow
AgainsttheMotion:AnneMarieSlaughter,DovZakheim
Moderator:JohnDonvan
AUDIENCERESULTS
Beforethedebate:
52%FOR
27%AGAINST
21%UNDECIDED
Afterthedebate:
32%FOR
59%AGAINST
9%UNDECIDED
StartTime:(18:02:38)
JohnDonvan:
AndIwanttobringouttothestagethegentlemanwhobroughtIntelligenceSquared
U.S.toheiscofounderwithhiswife,AlexandraMunroe.RobertRosenkranz
broughtIntelligenceSquaredafterseeingitinLondontotheU.S.backin2006.We've
recentlypassed100debates.Andthey'rebecauseofhisvision.So,let'spleasewelcome
BobRosenkranz.
[applause]
Thanks,Bob.AndwhatwenormallydoinNewYorkpriortothedebateiswejusttalk
foracoupleofminutes,inwhichI'llaskBobwhywe'redoingthisdebatenow,whythe
timing.SinceIthinkit'sinthiscaseit'sprettyobviouswhywe'redoingitnow,I'llask
youaslightlydifferentquestion.Sinceyou'vebeenherethisweekandparticipatingin
thesessions,ISIShascomeupalot.Foryou,whatdidyoupickupaboutthesituation
thatyoufeelinformsyouasyougointothisdebate?
RobertRosenkranz:
Well,Ithinkonethingthat,tome,wasveryinterestingI'vebeentothreeAspen
StrategyGroupsessions.
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
-2-
8/10/2015
18:03:37
Andinthisone,therewasfarmorehumility,I'dsay,thaninanyoftheothersthatI've
beento.Imean,peoplereallyfeellikethisisanareathatisnotwellunderstoodatall
andaphenomenonthatisnotwellunderstoodatall,andinaverycomplexcontext.
OneofthestrikingthingsformewasjusttheopeningeventwasalecturebyBernard
Haykel,aprofessoratPrinceton,whokindofgavesomethingofthehistoricand
intellectualrootsofISIS.AndIifIcould,I'djustmaybesummarizea
JohnDonvan:
Sure.
RobertRosenkranz:
coupleofhispoints.Firstofall,theterm"IslamicState"isexactlyright.ThisisIslamic.
Makenomistake.Theadministrationdoesn'tliketousethatterm,butthisisrootedin
Islam.Andit'srootedinaveryhighlytechnical,veryliteralistreadingoftheQur'an.
18:04:42
Andit'sanattempttoreallygobacktothemosttriumphantdaysoftheMuslimfaith,
whichisthe7thto9thcenturies,rightafterthefoundingbytheProphet.Sotheyare
veryfundamentalist.Theyareveryseriousaboutthereligion.Andthereareacoupleof
majortenets.OneisSharialaw.Twoistheuseofarmedconflictasawayofcreatinga
fullexpressionofaMuslimsociety.Thethirdisanotionofacaliphate,i.e.,astatewhich
iswhereallofthereligiouspowerandallofthepoliticalpowerisconcentratedinone
individual.AndISissuchastate.
18:05:32
Anditpartofitsappealtopeopleandtherecruitsthatitgetsisbecauseofthisalmost
utopiansenseoftryingtorestorethepastgloriesofIslam,which,accordingtothem,
havebeenlostthroughcenturiesofWesterndomination,corruptgovernment,anda
deviationfromtheausterity,andthepurity,andthedisciplineoftheearlyreligion.And
thathasalotofappealtopeople.So
JohnDonvan:
AndIfinditinteresting.Yousaythatinthepanels,youfoundthatthepeoplewethink
ofasexpertswereactuallyratherhumbleabouttheirgraspofthesituation.
RobertRosenkranz:
Yeah.Imean,Ithinkthiscameoutofaculturethatpeoplearenotfamiliarwith.The
tacticstookpeoplebysurprise,thefastthespeedinwhichtheyputtogethera
-3-
8/10/2015
powerfulmilitarymachinetookpeoplebysurprise.Thecomplexityinwhichwe're
operating,withSaudiArabia,withTurkey,withIran,withthecollapseofSyria.
18:06:43
Imean,there'sjustsomanymovingpiecesthatvary
JohnDonvan:
Wejustdon'twantdebaterstobetoohumblewhentheygetonthestageandtryto
defeateachother.
RobertRosenkranz:
Idon'tthinkthat'sgoingtobeaproblem.
[laughter]
JohnDonvan:
Allright.Withthat,let'sthankBobRosenkranzagainandwelcomeourdebaterstothe
stage.
[applause]
Ijustwantedtoaskyou,ifyou'renotTweeting,we'dlovetohaveyouTweet.But
otherwisewe'dappreciateitifyoucouldshutdownyourphones.Iforgot,soI'mdoing
minenow,justbecausewehavesomanysensitivemicsintheroomthattoomany
signalswillwreakhavocwithourmicrophones.
18:07:37
Butwe'regoingtonowofficiallybeginourlivestream.Ibelievewe'reupandwe're
goingtobeginthetapingforthepodcastandtheandfortheradioshow.SoIjust
wanttoaskyouspontaneouslytogiveusaroundofapplause.Thankyou.
[applause]
ISISisnotlosingandthatisthehardtruth.ThisIslamistmovementthatisstunningand
revoltingtheworldbyenslavingmenandwomenandchildrenandcuttingofftheheads
ofhostageswhilegainingmorefollowersallthetime,hasshockedU.S.leaderswiththe
speedofitsconquestoflargeportionsofSyriaandIraq.Andyes,theU.S.hasbeen
bombingfromtheairsince2014,butthatisafarcryfromgoingallinagainst
ISIS.Rather,toborrowatermfromtheColdWar,theU.S.strategycomescloserto
somethingthatwasknownascontainment,theattempttoheminanenemytoprevent
itspowerandinfluencefromgrowinginthehopethatsomedayitwillcollapsefrom
within.
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
-4-
8/10/2015
18:08:45
AndhowmuchsensedoesthatstrategymakeinthecaseofISIS?Well,thatsoundslike
themakingsofadebate,solet'shaveit.Yesornotothisstatement.Containmentis
NotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.AdebatefromIntelligenceSquaredU.S.I'mJohn
Donvan.WeareinAspen,Colorado,inpartnershipwiththeAspenStrategyGroup.We
havefoursuperblyqualifieddebatersonthestagewhowillargueforandagainstthis
motion:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.Asalways,ourdebateswill
gointhreeroundsandthenourliveaudiencehereinAspenwillvotetochoosethe
winnerandonlyonesidewillwin.Ourmotionagain:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISIS
MustBeDefeated.Let'smeettheteamarguingforthemotion.Please,ladiesand
gentlemen,welcomeMichleFlournoy.
[applause]
AndMichle,you'recofounderandCEOoftheCenterforaNewAmericanSecurity.
18:09:44
YouservedintheDepartmentofDefenseduringtheClintonadministrationandthenin
theObamaadministrationasundersecretaryofdefenseforpolicy.Recentlythe
economistwassayingthatapresidentHillaryClintonwouldhaveagreatfirsthundred
daysinpartbecauseyournominationasdefensesecretarywouldprobablygothrough
withoutmuchopposition.But,yourecentlycoauthoredanopedthatwascriticalofthe
Obamaadministration'seffortstofightISISandI'mwonderingdoyouthinktheObama
administrationhasheardyou?
MichleFlournoy:
Well,Icertainlyhopeso,buttobefair,youknow,theadministrationhasalotonits
platerightnow.ThislittlethingcalledtheIrandeal,gettingthatthroughCongress,
concludinganhistorictradedealinAsia,butI'mconfidentthatoncethosetwothings
aretakencareofthiswillmovetothetopofthepresident'snightstandreadingpile.
JohnDonvan:
Andkeephimupallnight.
MichleFlournoy:
Yes.
JohnDonvan:
Thankyouverymuch,MichleFlournoy.
[applause]
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
-5-
8/10/2015
Canyoutellus,Michle,whoisyourpartner?
18:10:37
MichleFlournoy:
MypartneristhebrilliantPhilipZelikow.
JohnDonvan:
PhilipZelikow,ladiesandgentlemen.
[applause]
And,Philip,youarealsoarguingforthemotionthatContainmentisNotEnough:ISIS
MustBeDefeated.You'reaprofessorofhistoryattheUniversityofVirginiaandyou
haveservedasacounselortotheStateDepartmentandasDirectorofthe9/11
Commission.You'vealsoservedonthepresident'sintelligenceadvisoryboardforboth
PresidentsBushandObama,whichmightstrikesomelistenersasodd,becausewe
reallywanttoknow,isitcommonforsomebodytoadvisepresidentsofdifferent
parties?
PhillipZelikow:
I'mafraid,John,it'snotcommonenough,whichisashame,becauseIthinkpresidents
needallthehelpthattheycanget.
JohnDonvan:
Well,Ithinkalotofpeopleinthisroomhavehelpedsomeofthemout,actually,along
theway,sothey'llbelisteningclosely.Ladiesandgentlemen,theteamarguingforthe
motionthatContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.
[applause]
Andnowlet'smeettheteamarguingagainstthemotion.Please,ladiesandgentlemen,
welcomeAnneMarieSlaughter.
[applause]
AnneMarie,youarepresidentandCEOofthethinktankNewAmericaandprofessor
emeritaofpoliticsandinternationalaffairsatPrinceton.
18:11:45
YouarethefirstwomantoholdthepositionofdirectorofpolicyplanningfortheU.S.
StateDepartment.You'vealsoservedasdeanofPrinceton'sWoodrowWilsonSchoolof
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
-6-
8/10/2015
PublicandInternationalAffairsandwe'recuriouswhetheryouraffiliationwiththe
schoolnamedforWoodrowWilsongivesusahinttoyourbrandofstatecraft.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Well,itdoes,butitiscoincidentalandthatevenbeforeIwasdeanI'vealwaysstoodfor
avaluesbasedforeignpolicyonthegroundsthatwhentheUnitedStatesactsas
consistentlyaspossiblewithourvalues,itadvancesournationalinterestandit
augmentsourpower.
JohnDonvan:
WhichI'msurewillinformyourargumentstoday.Andpleasetelluswhoisyour
partner.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Theforeignpolicyanalystextraordinaire,DovZakheim.
[laughter]
JohnDonvan:
Ladiesandgentlemen,theunforgettableDovZakheim.
[applause]
Dov
DovZakheim:
Itshowsyouhowwellweprepared.
18:12:38
[laughter]
JohnDonvan:
YouarealsoarguingagainstthemotionthatContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBe
Defeated.
DovZakheim:
Notanymore.
[laughter]
JohnDonvan:
Inourthreeagainstonedebatetonight,
[laughter]
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
-7-
8/10/2015
you'resenioradvisorattheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudiesandasenior
fellowatCNNCNAcorporation.IsaidCNN,butImeantCNACorporation.You've
servedtheDepartmentofDefenseindifferentcapacities.Youwereitscoordinatorfor
civilianprogramsinAfghanistan.Youwerethechieffinancialofficerandanunder
secretaryofdefense.YouarealsoaVulcan,whichisnotintheStarTreksense.Canyou
explainwhataVulcanis?
DovZakheim:
Yeah,thereweresevenofus,notincludingMr.Spock,whoadvisedGeorgeW.Bush
whenhewasrunningforpresident.Ofcourse,somepeoplewouldsayitwould'vehelp
ifSpockadvisedhim,butthegroupwasactuallysetupbyCondiRice,whoisnostranger
toAspen,anditwasnamedafterthestatueoftheGodVulcaninBirmingham.
18:13:41
Andsincewehadnosayinit,webecameVulcans.
JohnDonvan:
It'sbetterthanaStarTrekstory,actually.Thankyouverymuch,DovZakheim.And
welcometotheteamarguingagainstthemotion.
[applause]
Now,thisisadebate.It'sacontest.It'sacontestofideasandlogicandpersuasion,
maybealittlewitandhumor,butatbottomthedebatersherearetryingtogetourlive
audiencehereinAspentovotewiththem.Bythetimethedebatehasendedthis
audiencewillhavebeenaskedtovotetwotimes,oncebeforetheargumentsandonce
againafterthearguments,andtheteamwhosenumbershavemovedthemostin
percentagepointtermsbetweenthetwovoteswillbedeclaredourwinner.Solet's
haveourpreliminaryvote.Ifyougotothosekeypadsatyourseat,justpayattentionto
keysnumberone,two,andthree.Theothersarenotlive.Itworkslikethis.Ifyou're
forthemotionandI'mgoingtostateit,andlistencarefully,becausethere'sanegative
init,butyoureallywanttobelisteningprobablytothebackendofit.
18:14:37
ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.Ifyouagreewiththatpushnumber
one.Ifyoudisagreepushnumbertwo.Ifyou'reundecidedpushnumberthree.And
we'llgivethatabout15secondsandthenlockitout.Attheendofthedebatewe'lldo
thesamethingagainandwegettheresultsinabout45secondstoaminute.All
right.Let'sbegin.Let'smoveontoroundone.Ontoroundone,openingstatements
fromeachdebaterinturn,uninterrupted.Theywillbesixminuteseach.Speakingfirst
forthemotionContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated,Michle
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
-8-
8/10/2015
Flournoy.SheiscofounderandCEOoftheCenterforaNewAmericanSecurityand
formerundersecretaryofdefenseforpolicy.Ladiesandgentlemen,MichleFlournoy.
[applause]
MichleFlournoy:
SoI'marguingforthepropositionthatISISmustbedefeated.
18:15:37
ISISismorethanaterroristorganization.Itisaprotostate,anideologicalmovement
thatiscommittedtoundertakeJihadagainstanyonewhorejectsitsabhorrent
ideology.Itsultimateaimistoestablishaterritorialcaliphatethatstretchesacrossthe
Muslimworld.ISISisbrutalintheextreme.Ithasbeheadedinnocentcivilians.Ithas
burnedacapturedJordanianpilotaliveinacage.Itrapeswomenandgirlsandsells
themintosexualslavery.ItcrucifiesChristians.ItdesecratesanddestroysHolysites
andantiquities.OverthelastyearISIShasestablishedaverysubstantialsafehavenin
IraqandSyria,andithasrecruitedmorethan22,000foreignfightersfrommorethan
100countries.Thescaleandscopeofthismobilizationisunprecedented.
18:16:38
ThousandsofthesefightershaveWesternpassportsthatwouldallowthemtotravel
backtoEuropeandtotheUnitedStateswithoutavisa.ISISitsgeographicambitions
arenotlimitedtotheMiddleEast.Thisisaglobalizingmovement.InthelastyearISIS
hassoughttoestablishfootprintsinplacesfromLibyatoAfghanistan,Nigeria,the
Caucasus,evenSoutheastAsia.Holdingterritoryiscriticaltoitsmomentumandits
legitimacy.Ithasalsoestablishedaglobalpresenceontheinternetusingonlinemeans
todisseminateitspropaganda,recruitandradicalizefollowers,inspirelonewolf
attacks.Again,thescaleiseyewatering.90,000socialmediamessageseachday.
90,000aday.Insomeways,ISIScouldbecomemoredangerousthanAlQaeda.Al
Qaedausedtoassertverystrictcontroloverwhobecameanaffiliate.
18:17:40
ISISsays,"Letathousandflowersbloom.Ifwecaninspireindividualstoconductattacks
aroundtheworld,that'sgreat.Infact,10ofthe11attacksconductedintheWestsince
Mayof2014havebeenbylonewolves.ISIShasalsoconductedattacksnotonlyinthe
MiddleEast,butinCanada,Australia,France,Denmark,andyes,hereintheUnited
States.Inall50statestoday,thereareactiveinvestigationsorarrestsofISIS.Ifever
therewasaterroristgroupthatwemustdefeat,itisISIS.Now,defeatingISISwill
requireanintensivemoreintensiveandfullyresourcedcampaignonthepartofthe
UnitedStatesandourinternationalpartners.Weneedtointensifyourdiplomacyand
ourmilitarysupporttoSunniandotherpartnerssothattheycanbeempoweredto
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
-9-
8/10/2015
defeatISISontheground.Politically,thatmeansweneedintensifieddiplomacytopress
theShi'agovernmentinBaghdad,toaddressSunnigrievances,todevolvemore
authoritiesandresourcestotheprovinces,tomovetowardsamorefederalandjust
Iraq.
18:18:54
InSyria,weneedamorerobustdiplomaticefforttosettheconditionsforwhatshould
eventuallybecomeanegotiatedsettlementthatremovesAssadfrompower.Weneed
increasedinternationalengagementtotrytokeepthecivilwarinSyriafrom
destabilizingneighboringstates,likeJordan,andLebanon,andTurkey.Militarily,inIraq
weneedtoprovidemoresupport,trainers,combatadvisers,equipment,closeair
support,tolocalpartnersonthegroundwhocantakeonISISandtakebackterritory.To
beclear,IamnotwearenotarguingforalargescaleU.S.militaryinvasionofIraq.We
arenotcallingforarepeatoftheIraqWar.
18:19:40
Wearecallingforintensifiedsupporttopartners.InSyriaweneedtoshiftour
emphasistoproducingmoresupporttosomeofthegroupsthatarealreadyhaving
successontheground,liketheSouthernFrontandtheSyrianFreeArmy.Wealsoneed
torefashionourTrainandEquipprogramtotrytogettowardsthegoalofamoreviable
alternativetoISISinapostAssadSyria.Thinkingglobally,wealsoneedtocombatISIS
usingthefullrangeoftoolsthatwe'vedevelopedforcounterterrorism,disruptingtheir
financing,targetingtheirleadership,buildingtheircapacityofpartnersinother
countriestotrytokeepISISfrommovingin.Weneedtoworkwithprivatesectorand
NGOpartnerstocombatthemonline.Andweneedtoaddresssomemorefundamental
conditionsthatcreatefertilesoilforISIS,suchaspoorgovernanceandcommunity
grievance.
18:20:39
Thiswillnotbewithoutrisk.ButIwouldargue,theriskofinactionareevengreater.The
otherteamwillarguethatcontainmentisabetteroption.Iwilltellyouthat
containmentwon'twork.ContainmentmeansallowingISIStoholdontosanctuary.It
meansISISwillbeabletocontinuetoplanattacks,recruitfollowers,inspirelonewolves.
ContainmentwouldbearecipeforendlessterroristattacksintheWestandinstabilityin
theMiddleEast.Isthatafuturewereallywant?It'snotafutureIwantmychildrento
livein.Ifthere'sanythingweshouldhavelearnedfrom9/11,itisthatwemustnotallow
aterroristorganizationlikethistohavesanctuaryintheheartoftheMiddleEastor
elsewhere.Nowisthetimetodomore,toactwithourpartners,todefeatISIS.Thank
you.
JohnDonvan:
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 10 -
8/10/2015
Thankyou,MichleFlournoy.
[applause]
Andthemotionis:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.
18:21:40
Andournextdebaterwillbespeakingagainstthatmotion,AnneMarieSlaughter.Sheis
presidentandCEOofNewAmericaandformerdirectorofpolicyplanningfortheU.S.
DepartmentofState.Ladiesandgentlemen,AnneMarieSlaughter.
[applause]
AnneMarieSlaughter:
So,IwanttoseetheendofISISasmuchasanyonedoes.Noonecanwatchthehorrible
thingstheydoandnotthinkthatthisisaterrible,terriblescourgeandthreat.Andwe
havetoendit.Thequestiononthetableis,"Whatisthebeststrategytoachievethat
goalfortheUnitedStates?"That'swhatwe'redebating.Whatisthebeststrategyfor
us?Now,ouropponentsarealreadyfudgingthatquestion.Becausethedebatehereis,
doyouusemilitaryforcetodrivethemoutoftheterritorytheyholdordoyoucontain
themwheretheyare?
18:22:40
Andso,whatyou'rehearingistheycan'thavesanctuary.MichleFlournoysaidvery
clearlytheycannothaveasanctuary.Okay?Whattheyhavetoconvinceyouofisthey
haveastrategyforhowtheUnitedStatescandenythemcandenyISISthat
strategy.So,let'sjustbeveryclearaboutwhat'sonthetablehere.Theyhaveto
convinceyoutheyhaveastrategyfortheUnitedStatestodriveISISoutofthat
sanctuary,andsomehowmagically,withoutbootsontheground.ButI'llleavethatto
them.So,theyhavetotellyouwhatdefeatisandhowtheU.S.canachieveit.Here's
whatwemeanbycontainment.WemeanstoppingISISwhereitis.Wemeancritically
breakingtheirnarrativeofvictory.WeallheardfromProfessorHaykel,whoBob
Rosenkranzmentioned.Hesaid,"Look,whatisessentialisthateverytimeISISwins,
theyconvincetheirsupportersGodisontheirside."
18:23:42
Allright.Itisakindofendofdays,millenarian"Thisisit.We'regoingtorestorethe
caliphate.We'regoingtospreaditacrosstheworld.Andsee,Godisonoursidebecause
wehavejusttakenanothercity."So,containmentsaysyoubreakthat.Youdonotlet
themexpandtheirterritoryandyoudoeverythingyoucantostoptheflowofrecruits.
Soyoustopthemwheretheyare.So,that'scontainment.It'snotadonothingstrategy.
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 11 -
8/10/2015
Infact,it'sdoingeverythingpossible,andcertainly,diplomaticallyeverythingpossible.
Digitallyeverythingpossible.Inandmilitarily,stoppingthemfromexpandingwhere
theyare.ItmayalsomeansupportingouralliesandfriendsintheMiddleEasttothe
extenttheytaketheleadinwantingtopushISISback.Sothat'scontainment.We're
goingtostopthemwheretheyare.
18:24:36
We'regoingtolettheirinternalcontradictionsshowthemselves.We'regoingtolet
ultimately,aswehavedonebefore,fortheoldermembersofthisaudiencewe're
goingtolettheideologycrumbleitself.Thealternativeisrollback.Right?The
alternative,asIsaid,isgoinginthereandactuallypushingthemoutofthatterritory.
AndI'mgoingtoleaveittomypartner,DovZakheim
[laughter]
thebrilliantDovZakheim.He'sgoingtotalkaboutwhythat'ssohardmilitarily.But
whatIwanttodoistalkaboutwhythatwon'twork,whyrollbackwon'twork
politically.Andthefirstthingtosayiswe'veseenthismoviebefore.GeneralPetraeus
wasonthestagetwodaysago,talkingabouthowhehadpushedAlQaedainIraqoutof
Mosul.AlQaedainIraqisnotthere,butguesswho'sbackinMosul?ISISisthere.Thisis
Round2.Wehavedonethismilitarilybefore.Thatdidn'twork.Andhere'swhy,because
itisn'tjustanidea.
18:25:40
Itisnotjustamilitaryquestion.ISISisanideology.ProfessorHaykelsaidonthesame
stagethat,ofcourse,defeatisdesirable.Buthowdoyoudefeatasetofideas?So,the
waywe'vedonethisbefore,whenwewereupagainstanideologyformostofmylife,
thatideologywasCommunism.Containmentwasthemostsuccessfulstrategythe
UnitedStateshaseverpursued.Anditdidn'tmeannotdoinganything.Andwehadto
useourmilitary.Andweusedourdiplomatically.ButwecontainedtheSovietUnion
andultimately,weletitsinternalcontradictionsdestroyit.So,it'shappenedbefore.
Andit'llcomeagain.Equallyormoretroublingisthatifweinjectourselves,we
confirmtheirnarrative.Right?ISIS'snarrativeisthattheyarefightingthecrusaders
that'sustheZioniststhat'stheIsraelisandtheShiitesandtheSufis.
18:26:39
So,theminuteweputourselvesinthere,weareconfirmingtothemandeveryonethey
wanttorecruitthatthisisindeedthemillennialbattlebetweenthecrusadersandthe
truedefendersofIslam.Wedon'twanttodothat.Thelastreasonthatweneedto
pursueacontainmentstrategyisthisisaverylonggame.So,GeneralPetraeussaidtwo
daysagoandhewasquotingGeneralOdiernothatthiswasafightatleastofa
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 12 -
8/10/2015
decade,ifnotadecadeortwodecades.So,10to20years.That'swhatareourgenerals
aretellingusnow.Thatactually,Ithink,couldbeontheshortside.So,rememberyour
historyandrememberstoriesofmonotheisticfaithinwhichclericshadbothpolitical
andreligiouspowerandweredeeply,deeplycorruptandspawnedarevoltthatsaidyou
hadtopurifythechurchandultimatelythatwastheonlywaytoreclaimthetrue
religion.
18:27:42
Obviouslythat'stheReformation.Itwasjustdecades,itwascenturies.Thisisadeeply
internalMuslimfight.ItisafightforthesoulofIslam.Itisnotourfight.Itisthe
Muslim'sfight.Intheendwehavetoprotectourselves.Wehavetocontainit,butwe
cannotwinit.
JohnDonvan:
Thankyou,AnneMarieSlaughter.Yourtimeisup.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Thankyou.
[applause]
JohnDonvan:
Andareminderofwhat'sgoingon.Wearehalfwaythroughtheopeningroundofthis
IntelligenceSquaredU.S.debate.I'mJonDonvan.Wehavefourdebaters,twoteams
oftwoarguingitoutoverthismotion:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBe
Defeated.You'veheardthefirsttwoopeningstatementsandnowontothe
third.DebatingforthemotionContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated,
PhilipZelikow.HeistheWhiteBurkettMillerProfessorofhistoryattheUniversityof
VirginiaandservedastheDirectorofthe9/11Commission.Ladiesandgentlemen,
PhilipZelikow.
18:28:36
[applause]
PhillipZelikow:
Toughissue,butIwanttostartwhereAnneMarieSlaughterleftoff.Shesaidinjecting
theUnitedStatesintothisconflictconfirmstheirnarrative.Asifwe'renotinjected
already?Asifwe'renotconductingairstrikesagainstthemeverysingleday?Asif
we'renot,astheDeputySecretaryofStatehassaid,"We'vealreadykilled10,000of
theirmembers,butithasnotdeclined."Inotherwords,we'realreadyinjected.We're
alreadyfighting,we'rejustnotbeatingthem.Thatconfirmstheirnarrative.That
confirmstheirnarrativeofvictory.Theircrusadersattackuseveryday.That'stheway
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 13 -
8/10/2015
theyputit.Andherewearecontrolling20cities,rulingmillionsofpeople,and
enslavingmore.Let'stalkaboutwhatfailurelookslike.Sure,failurelookslikehundreds
orthousandsofAmericansdeadafteranattackthatcouldcomenextmonth,nextyear,
ortheyearafterthat.
18:29:41
The9/11attackthatIstudiedgestatedforthreeyearsbeforetheylaidwasteto
southernManhattan.ThepeoplewhocarriedoutthatattackmigratedfromGermany
toAfghanistannearlytwoyearsbeforetheattack.Theywentthere,bytheway,
thinkingthattheyweregoingtogofightRussiansinChechnya,buttheleadershipfound
otherusesforthem.SofailurelookslikehundredsorthousandsofAmericansdead
withmoreviolenceinEurope,butfailurealsolookslikethedescentoftheMiddleEast
intothefullwarofextremesinwhichitsallagainstall,inwhichitsShiaextremists
supportedbyIranandSunniextremistsforwhomISISistheterrifyingsortofpurityand
LebanoncrumplesandJordancrumplesandTurkeybeginstocrumple,allalreadyawash
withmillionsofdisplacedpeople.
18:30:36
Allarealreadyfailingtocope.Theirsocietiesalreadysaggingundertheweightofthe
burdens.SaudiArabiadestabilizedasmoreandmoreSunnisfindthatthat'sreallythe
extremeversionoftheirownideologythattheywanttofollow.Don'tyouthinkthat
that'sthepointthattheU.S.hastoreinvadetheMiddleEast?That'sfailure.U.S.
reinvasionoftheMiddleEastisfailure.That'sthefailureMichleFlournoyandIare
against.That'swhyyouneedtoadoptthisresolutionanddefeatISISsothatwedont
havetoreinvadetheMiddleEast.Whatthendoessuccesslooklike?Successlookslike
defeatingtheirmessage.What'stheirmessage?It'samessageaboutpower.We
empowertheweakSunniMuslimsandweempowerthemthroughtheexclusivedivine
missiontheyholdandtheterrifyingswordtheywieldintheterritorywerule,ruling
despitethecrusader'sattacksagainstus.Sowhatdoessuccesslooklike?It'sSunni
Muslimsliberatingtheirownlands.
18:31:43
It'sSunniMuslimsrecoveringselfdetermination.Sowhat'sthestrategytodothat?It's
apoliticalstrategyfirstandforemost,becausethepublicdebateinAmericaismostly
aboutshouldwedomoremilitarily.That'swrong.MichleandIbothbelieve,knowthe
strategyleadspoliticallyanditneedstobeastrategythatappealstoSunniMuslims,
becausethey'retheoneswewanttodomostofthefightingtokeepAmericansfrom
havingtodomostofthefightinglateron.Whywilltheyfight?Theywillfighttofree
themselves,tofreethemselvesfromtheAssadtyrannyinSyriawherewealsomustjoin
thatfightandendtheSyrianCivilWar,whichisdestroyingtheregionandbringingit
closetothebrinkofapocalypse.That'sthekindofmessagethatappealstoTurkeyand
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 14 -
8/10/2015
bringstheminonoursideandunitsSaudiArabiaandtheSunnisofLebanonandthe
millionsofSyriansinrefugeecampswhowanttoreturntotheirhomes.
18:32:45
Because,yousee,ISISisnothomegrown.ISISareforeigners.TheISISrulersinSyriaare
ledbyIraqisandveteransofSaddamHussein'sgestapoandtheyrecruitUzbeksand
ChechenstoruntheirshocktroopsinMosul.ManyoftheIraqirecruitsthatthey
enslaveintotheirservicedon'tevenunderstandthecommandlanguagethatthey're
hearingontheradio.SothepoliticalstrategyisaselfdeterminationofSunni
Muslims.Andthemilitarystrategy,adviseandsupportsotheycandothejob,butit'sa
toughjob.Theyhavetoretakecities.Todothatkindofurbanwarfarerequiresjustthe
kindofassetsthatonlytheUnitedStateshas.
18:33:31
Thinkabouturbancombatandwhatyouneed,armoredvehiclesthataren'tgoingtobe
blownupbyanIEDaseasily,jammerstodiffusetheIEDs,sniperswhocanprovideover
watch,communicationsothatyouknowwhat'sgoingonintheblocktwoblocksaway
fromyou,medivaccapabilitiesthatgiveyoutheconfidenceyourwoundedcanbe
treatedandhelicoptersandfiresthatcanbebroughttobearonthetargetsyouseein
frontofyou.ThoseareassetsonlytheUnitedStatescanprovide,whichgivesthemthe
confidenceandthesensethatwe'reinthiswiththemthatallowsyoutobuilda
coalitionfoundedonSunniMuslimsdoingthejobtoliberatetheirownlands,because
containmentdoesn'tkeeptheU.S.out.ItguaranteestheU.S.islikelytocome
in.AnneMariesaiditatlast.Letideologycrumbleitself.DidtheKhmerRouge
crumbleitself?No,theVietnamesehadtoinvadeCambodia.DidtheTalibancrumble
itself?DidalQaedainPakistancrumbleitself?HastheNorthKoreantyrannycrumbled
itself?
18:34:38
No.Youhavetobeatterrorwithsomethingelseandinthiscasethesomethingelseis
defeatingterrorwhereithastakenrootinISIS.Supporttheresolution.
JohnDonvan:
Thankyou.Thankyou,PhilipZelikow.
[applause]
AndthemotionisContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.Andhereto
makehisopeningstatementagainstthemotionandourfinalspeakerintheopening
round,DovZakheim.HeistheSeniorAdvisorattheCenterforStrategicand
- 15 -
8/10/2015
InternationalStudiesandformerundersecretaryofdefense.Ladiesandgentlemen,
DovZakheim.
[applause]
DovZakheim:
ThanksverymuchandIreallywanttothankPhil,becausehejustmademy
argument.WehavearmedISIS.Whatdoyouthinkthey'reusing?Americanpersonnel
carriers.Americantanks.Americanammunition.Why?Becausewe'vedonesucha
fantasticjobtrainingtheIraqisandwe'vebeendoingitforoveradecade,andwe've
doneanequallygoodjobtrainingtheAfghans.
18:35:42
That'swhythey'redoingsowell.Andinfact,ifyoulookatwhowe'vetrainedinSyria,
wehavea$500millionprogramthatthusfarhasspatout60fighters,60.That'sless
thanthatsideoftheroom.Ofwhich,andIhopethisdoesn'thappentoanyofyouall,a
wholebunchhavealreadybeencaptured.Solet'sstepbackandlookatwhatitreally
takestobeatthesefolksandtodosomethingotherthantocontainthemthewaymy
brilliantcolleague,AnneMarieSlaughter
[laughter]
laidoutforyou.Youknow,thisisn'tthefirstoutburstofIslamicextremism.For
instance,inthe12thCenturytherewasafanaticalgroupthatactuallyhadthesame
ideologyastheseguyscalledtheAlmohads.
18:36:44
Andhowweretheydefeated?BymassiveforcesofChristiantroopscomingdownfrom
northernSpain.Inthe18thCentury,theoriginalWahhabiswhohadmadeadealwith
thefirst[unintelligible],basicallysamekindofideology.TheyweredefeatedbyTurkish
forces,andthenwehadthesamesortofthingagaininthelate19thCenturywhenLord
Kitchener,thenGeneralKitchener,amassedahugeforcetodefeattheMahdiinSudan.
What'sthecommondenominator?Lotsoftroops.Notafewthousand.Notabunchof
spotters,becauseoh,bytheway,whentheIsraeliscouldn'tbeatHezbollahin2006,
theydidn'thaveaproblemwithspotters.
18:37:40
AndwhenwetriedtobombVietnamtotheStoneAgeinthe1960s,withRolling
Thunder,wedidn'thaveaproblemwithspotters.Spottersaren'ttheissue.Theissueis,
canyouandareyouwillingtosendinhundredsofthousandsoftroops?Doyouthink
thiscountrywantstodothat?Doyouthinkweevenwanttospendthemoneytodo
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 16 -
8/10/2015
that?We'relivingunderastrangethingcalledasequester.Somebodywasaskedon
television,"What'sasequester?"Andheanswered,"It'sthecapitalofPortugal."
[laughter]
Peopledon'tevenknowwhatasequesteris.Butwhatit'sdoneislimitourspending.
AndyoutalktoSecretaryofDefenseCarterandherightlysayshe'sbeingconstrainedall
overtheplace.Thepresidentsaysit.So,wherearewegoingtofindthemoneyevenif
wehadthewill,whichIdon'tthinkwehavetogoandfundallthesetroops,orevento
dowhatPhilipsays.
18:38:41
Allthethingsyouwanttogivethesefolkslet'sassumetheydon'tfallintoISIS'shands.
Wherearewegoingtofindthemoneyforit?Dowehavethewill?Dowehavethe
money?Dowehavethestayingpowerforthatkindofthing?Theonlywayyou'regoing
tostoptheseguysisif,indeed,theyrotfromwithin.That'stheonlyalternativeifyou're
notgoingtosendhundredsofthousandsoftroopsin.Andtogetthemtorotfrom
within,youhavetocontainthem.You'vegottokeepthemcoopedup.Andthereare
waystodothat.Butwe'renoteveninonemindastohowtorightnow.Yes,welove
theKurds,butwedon'tarmthem.Yes,wewanttoworkwiththeTurks,exceptthe
Turkshaveadifferentagenda.TheywanttobombtheKurds,whowelike.
[laughter]
Imean,youneedascorecardtofigureoutwhoexactlyisonyourside.
18:39:38
Howdoyoubeatthesepeoplethatway?Thebottomlineisunlesswehavea
coherentmajormilitarystrategy,therealalternativewhenyouparseoutallthestuff
aboutwhatwecandorightnow,therealalternativeistokeepthemcoopedup,toarm
ourfriends,tofigureouthowtotrainthosewhowillfight.Andyes,theSunnismight
fight.Butguesswhat?Theyhaven'tfoughtuntilnow.We'vebeenbeggingthemfor
years.SaudiArabiaisfighting,exceptnotinSyria,notinIraq.They'refightinginYemen.
Andthey'renotdoingthathotajobthereeither.So,wehavetofigureouthowto
motivatethosewewanttoworkwithus.Andthat'sgoingtotaketime.Andwhatdowe
dointhemeantime?We'vegottocontainISISforaslongaspossible.Andifwecould
beattheSovietUnion,Iwouldn'tbetthefamilyfarmagainstourbeatingISIS.
18:40:42
Thankyou.
- 17 -
8/10/2015
[applause]
JohnDonvan:
Thankyou,DovZakheim.AndthatconcludesRound1ofthisIntelligenceSquaredU.S.
debate,whereourmotionisContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.
Rememberhowyouvotedintheopeningvotingrounds,andwe'regoingtohaveyou
voteagainafterthethirdroundofthedebate.Andagain,remindingyouthattheteam
whosenumbershavechangedthemostbetweenthetwovotesinpercentagepoint
termswillbedeclaredourwinner.
NowontoRound2.Round2iswherethedebaterstakequestionsfromme,addressone
anotherdirectly,andtakequestionsfromyouinourliveaudiencehereinAspen.The
motionisthis:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.We'veheardone
teamarguingforthemotion,MichleFlournoyandPhilipZelikow,arguingthatISISis
notAlQaeda.ISISisnominorleagueorganizationthatcontainmentwouldbearecipe
forendlessterroristattacks,thatsuccesswouldbesupportingMuslimgroupsinsidethe
ISISrealm,whowouldthemselvestakeonthebattleofdefeatingISIS.
18:41:42
AndsuccesswouldbethefurtheringofthateffortwithU.S.support,butnot,they
emphasize,withhundredsofthousandsofU.S.bootsontheground.Theteamarguing
againstthemotion,AnneMarieSlaughterandDovZakheim,theyarearguingthat
containmentbythat,theymeanstoppingISISwhereitis,buttheydon'tmeanaroll
back.Theychargetheiropponentswithneedingtodefendrollback.That'swhatthis
debateisactuallyabout.Theysaythatcontainmentisnotdoingnothing.Butatthe
sametime,iftheUnitedStatesweretogetinvolved,itwouldstrengthenISIS's
recruitingefforts,thateverytimewekillsomebodyinISIS,itbringssomebodynew,and
thatitisnavetoarguethatdefeatcannothappenwithoutbringinghundredsof
thousandsoftroopsontotheground,thatyoucannotcountonlocalforcestodothat.
I'mactuallyseeingaconfusingamountofoverlapbetweenthetwosides,intermsof
themeansthatyouwouldusetoputyourparticularvisionsintoplay.
18:42:41
You'rebothtalkingaboutyou'rebothtalkingaboutsmallnumbersoftroopsto
support.Definitelyyouwouldcontainandstop.Youwouldcontainand,tosomedegree,
moveon.ButIamsomewhatconfusedbytheteamarguingforthemotion,saying,"We
don'twanttoputtroopsontheground."Youropponentssay,"Well,howelseareyou
goingtorollback?"
So,Iwanttotakethattoyou.Iliketherollbackquestion.Youwantifyouwantto
takeawaytheterritorythatISIShas,whichisitsmainasset,reallyit'swhatgivesitthe
basisforclaimingacaliphate,anditsbestadvertisementforbeingauthenticand
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 18 -
8/10/2015
legitimatetoitsadherents.Ifyou'renotgoingtotakeawaytheirterritory,whatisitthat
youaregoingtobedoing?TakethattoMichle.
MichleFlournoy:
Ithinkthatit'ssomethingthatit'simportanttounderstandisinordertobreaktheir
narrativeofvictory,youhavetorollbackterritory.Youhavetotaketerritoryawayfrom
ISIS.Andthewayinwhichwe'rearguingtodothatistolooktotheactorswhodohave
thepoliticalwilltofight,buthavenotbeengiventhesupportorconditions.
18:43:46
So,forexample,thisisnotabouttryingtoretrainalargelyShi'aIraqisecurityforcesto
gointoSunniareas.Whatweneedtodois,first,withapoliticalstrategy,pushtheIraqi
governmenttowardsapolicyofinclusionoftheSunnis.Iftheexclusionandthe
persecutionoftheSunnipopulationsthathascreatedthefertilesoilforagrouplike
ISIStocomein.Theyarewillingtofightbecauseit'stheirhometerritories.
Buttheyneedtwoconditions.Oneistheyneedtoknowthataftertheyfightandshed
bloodtokickISISout,theywillbeinadifferentIraq,thattheywillhavesomeprospect
forselfgovernanceandsupport,andthatreinclusionintheIraqisociety.Andnumber
two,theyhavetoknowthatthey'refullysupported,thatwehavetheirback,that
someonehastheirback.
18:44:41
Andhere,it'snotamatterofU.S.,youknow,brigadesanddivisions.It'samatterof
givingthemnotonlytrainersonabase,butcombatadviserswhowillhelpadvisethem
whenthey'reincontactwithISIS.
JohnDonvan:
Allright.Let'sletAnneMarieSlaughter
FemaleSpeaker:
Airsupport
JohnDonvan:
AnneMarieSlaughter[inaudible]okay.DovZakheim.
DovZakheim:
Yeah.Acoupleofthingsonthat.First,we'vebeenpromisingthistotheSunnisforalong
timeinIraq.Whyshouldtheybelieveus?Numberone.Wehaven'tdoneituntilnow.
Andwhoknowsifwecandoit?
PhillipZelikow:
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 19 -
8/10/2015
Dov,that'snottrue.Wediditin2007and2008.
DovZakheim:
Absolutelyright.
PhillipZelikow:
Isawit.
DovZakheim:
Yousawit.Andwherearewetoday?
FemaleSpeaker:
[unintelligible]
DovZakheim:
Wewalkedawayfromitand
JohnDonvan:
Wait
DovZakheim:
theproblemis
JohnDonvan:
Wait.Let'sDov,yougoandthen
DovZakheim:
thisisproblemisandthisisourproblemintheMiddleEastyouknow,remember
webackedtheShah1,000percent?AsktheShahwhereheisthesedays.Pushingup
daisies.Thefactofthematteriswehavemadepromiseafterpromise.Andletmetell
yousomethingelse.
18:45:38
ThiswholefightwehavewiththeIsraelis?DoyouthinktheArabslookatthatandsay,
"MyGod.TheydoublecrossedMubarak.TheydoublecrossedtheShah.They'redouble
crossingtheIsraelis.Canwereallytrustthem?"Yes.Youwereright.Whatyoudidin'07
and'08wasabsolutelyright.Whathashappenedsincethen?Andbytheway,let'slook
atSyria.WhodidtheSyrianswanttofightfirst?ISISorAssad?
JohnDonvan:
Dov
DovZakheim:
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 20 -
8/10/2015
We
JohnDonvan:
Dov,15moresecondstorelatethistothemotion.
DovZakheim:
Absolutely.
[laughter]
Thepointisthatifyou'retalkingaboutbuckinguppeopletofightagainstISIS,youdon't
havethepeopletobuckupbecausewedon'thavethecredibilitytobuckthemup.Does
thatcometothepoint?
JohnDonvan:
Andyou'resayingthattherollbackthattheyproposed,byusingthoseforces,willnot
happen?
DovZakheim:
Can'thappen.
JohnDonvan:
Okay.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Iwould
JohnDonvan:
Allright.Letmebringittotheotherside,andthenI'llcomebacktoyou,AnneMarie.
Philip.PhilipZelikow.
PhillipZelikow:
We'renotsayingthestatusquoworks.Theresolutionisnotsupportingthestatusquo.
18:46:37
Sothat'sabutwhatwe'resayingistochangethestatusquoyouhavetoleadwitha
differentpoliticalstrategy.So,thatpromisestheSunnistheselfgovernment.Yes,many
ofthemfeelbetrayed.TheyfeelbetrayedbecausetheU.S.didnothavetheirbackafter
2008,forvariousreasons.Andso,youhavetogivethemasituationinwhichtheyare
thedominantpopulationinSyria.That'smajorityruleinSyria.AndtheninIraq,
therefore,aprotectedminority,upinthenorthandinthesouth.Andthat'sdoable.
- 21 -
8/10/2015
Infact,theIraqiprimeminister,forthefirsttime,withthecouncilofministers,has
movedforward,withU.S.pressure,andthelawsthatwouldactuallyputinplacethe
devolutionofpowerdowntotheprovincestoanunprecedentedlevelcombinedwitha
constitutionthatwouldgivethoseprovincesthemoneyproportionatelytotheir
populationoutoftheIraqibudget.Combinethatwiththekindofmilitarysupport
Michlereferstoandthenyouhaveastrategythat'srealistic.Butthinkaboutthe
alternative.
JohnDonvan:
Okay,but
PhilipZelikow:
Doyougiveuponthemandletitgo?
18:47:43
JohnDonvan:
AnneMarieSlaughter.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Phil,IfeellikeI'mbackin1965,althoughIwasveryyoungin1965,butIreallyIfeel
likeyou'resayingI'msurewecanfindthesefolksandI'msuretheycanfightourfight
justaslongaswegivethemwhattheyneedtodo.Andiftheydon't,well,we'llgive
themalittlemoreandthenwe'llgivethemsomeadvisorsontheground.Andthen
guesswhat,becausewereallygottogetthisdonebecausewereallydohavetorollit
back,we'regoingtosendinthetroops.It'snotasiftheObamaadministrationisnot
pushingashardasitcanontheIraqistobeinclusive.Thathasbeenour
strategy.They'reworkingashardastheycan.
It'snotasifthey'renottryingtofindpeopleinSyriawhowillfightISIL.It'snotasifthey
haven'tbeenpushingTurkeytofightISIL.EverybodywantstofightISIL,buttheywant
tofightsomeoneelsemoreandwecan'tdoitforthem.TomFriedmansaid,"Any
strategyintheMiddleEastthatstartswithI,we,orus,isdoomedtofail."
18:48:38
It'sgottobeastrategythatstartswiththem,theylead,westopwedon'tletISIS
expand,buttheyhavetodothefightingandwecanbackthemiftheywantto,but
we'renotgoingtorollitback.
PhillipZelikow:
Butthepointwascantheyfight?Yeah,theycanfight.Ifyougivethemthekindof
support,they'veprovenit.Whattheywantaboveallistofighttocontroltheirown
- 22 -
8/10/2015
homes.Isthatarealisticgoal?Yeah.That'sarealisticgoal.That'sthegoalofnational
liberation.That'snotwhatwewerefightinginVietnam
JohnDonvan:
I'mhavingdifficultyunderstandingwhereyoutwodisagreewitheachother.
[laughter]
Unlessthey'resayingthatyourvisionofforalongtimeleavingISISwiththepiecesof
territoryithasnowiscrazybecauseit'ssuchaterrificadvertisementfor
recruitment.Theygettheirlegitimacyasacaliphatefromhavingtheterritoryand
they'resayingthepatienceyou'rewillingtoshowthesituationisacrazyidea,whichwill
leadtodisintegrationandultimatelyaninvasion.
18:49:43
Idlikeyoutotakeonthatpoint,becauseIthinkthat'swhereIseesome
disagreement.DovZakheim.
DovZakheim:
Well,firstofallwe'renottalkingaboutpatiencehere.IthoughtAnneMarielaiditout
verywell.Wedowanttokeeppushingthem.Nobodysaidtostopeventhe
bombing.Wecontinuewiththat.WearmtheKurds.Wedotrain.Thepointisallof
thatisnotgoingtodefeatISIS.It'sgoingtocontainISIS.That'sthepointandit'sgoing
totaketime.It'sgoingtotaketimetorecoverfromthefactthatsince2008whenyou
werelastthereanddoingwhatyoudid,wearenowin2015.Sevenyearsandbyyour
ownstatementinthosesevenyearswehavenotprogressed.Ittakestimeandyou
havetocontainanddothethingswe'retalkingaboutandthatyou'retalkingabout.I'm
stillconvincedthatthereasonwesoundsosimilaristhey'remakingthebestcaseforus.
18:50:40
[laughter]
JohnDonvan:
MichleFlournoy.
MichleFlournoy:
Nowearen't.
JohnDonvan:
Tellmewhyyou'renot.
MichleFlournoy:
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 23 -
8/10/2015
Imean,IthinkthatbecauseIthinkAnneMariesaid,containmentisreallyholding
themwheretheyareandwearesayingholdingthemwhereweareisnotenough,
becauseaslongastheyhavetheterritorytheyhavetheywillcontinuetohave
momentum.Theywillcontinuetorecruit.Theywillhaveabasisfromwhichtolaunch
operationsandeventuallytherewillbeattacksofsignificanceontheUnitedStates.The
containmentisarecipeforincreasingriskandcosttotheUnitedStates.
Soyes,thecontainmentmaybeaninitialphaseonthewaytodefeat,butwehaveto
proactivelyrollkeeppreventthemfromspreadingelsewhereandrollthemback
wheretheydospread.Notbygoinginbyourselves,allbyourselves,butby
empoweringthelocalpopulationswhohavethepoliticalwill,thelegitimacy,butmaybe
notthemeansandsupporttheyneedtobeeffective.
18:51:39
JohnDonvan:
And,Michle,withaU.S.brandonthateffort?AndIaskthatbecauseyou'reopponents
aresayingtheminutewesee
MichleFlournoy:
Idon'tthinkweneedtohaveaU.S.brand.Ithinkthemostlegitimacythepeoplewe
shouldbesupportinginthefightagainstISISaretheSunnithevastmajorityofSunnis
intheworldwhoarejustasappalledbythemandfindthemjustasabhorrentaswedo
exceptthey'relivingwiththem.
JohnDonvan:
Oh,AnneMarieSlaughter.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Thatisthecruxofourdisagreement,right,thatwe'resayingyouholdthem.Weall
agreeonthat.You'resayingyoucanonlywinifyourollitback,butwhatyouwon'tdo
isactuallyadopttheonlystrategythatwouldrollthemback,whichismassiveU.S.
troops,becausewehavebeentryingtogetAfghansandIraqis
MichleFlournoy:
Wehavenotadequatelyresourced
AnneMarieSlaughter:
andSyriansandeveryoneelsetofightforusandtheywon'tdoitinpartbecause
they'vegototherenemies,otherconcerns.Wecan'tfightitforthem,butyouwon't
adoptthestrategythatwillactuallygetyoutowhereyouwanttogo.
18:52:41
- 24 -
8/10/2015
PhillipZelikow:
Therearetwokeyflawsinthisargument.First,wehavenotadequatelyresourcedor
triedadviseandsupport.Sobeforeyougettothatargumenttheonlythingthatwill
workisaU.S.invasion.Canweatleastjusttryaproperstrategyofadviceand
support?Andgiveitatrybecausethesecondflawintheirargumentisthis,they
assumethatthisisastableequilibrium,thatadevastatedSyriawithhalfthepopulation
displacedandmillionsofpeopleinrefugeecampsinallthesurroundingstatesthat
canbestablymaintainedforwhoknowshowlongtocome.Theycanjuststandonthat
tightropeforhoursandhours.We'resayingtheyknowtheycan'tstayonthat
tightrope.Eventuallythey'regoingtofalloffthattightropeandthenyouaskyourself
whichwaydoyouthinkthatgoesastheMiddleEastdescendsintoalloutreligiouswar.
DovZakheim:
Look.Look.Resources,$500millionbuckstotrain60people.That'satremendous
payout.
18:53:39
PhillipZelikow:
Becausewewouldn'tfightAssad.That'swhywecouldattractnewrecruits.
DovZakheim:
Okay.SodoyouwanttofightAssad?Nowyouwanttofightatwofrontwar.
[talkingsimultaneously]
PhillipZelikow:
Syriancivilwar.
DovZakheim:
Youwanttofightbothsides.That'sgreat.Well,Ihopewefigureoutwhichsidewe
shootatfirst.
PhilipZelikow:
That'showyoubringtheSunnicoalitiontogether.
DovZakheim:
Hangon.Youwanttoputfirstofall,howmuchmoneyshouldwefundtheSaudis
whomwewanttofightforus?Imean,thelasttimeIcheckedtheyweren'tgoing
aroundwithatincup.
MichleFlournoy:
That'snotwhatwe'rearguing,Dov.
- 25 -
8/10/2015
DovZakheim:
Soit'snottheSaudis.It'snottheEmirates.It'sjustthesepeoplethemselves.Again,
howdidtheIraqiArmythatweweretraining,andwepouredbillionsintotheseguys,
whatagreatjobtheydid.Sotheyweren'tfightingfortheirhomes,you
say.Okay.WhatdoyouthinkwouldhappenifwepouredbillionsintotheSunnisin
Iraq?Doyouthinkthecentralgovernmentwouldletus?Theywon'tevenletuspour
moneyintoKurdistan.Soyoureallythinkthey'regoingtoletuspourmoneyintothe
Sunnis?
18:54:37
Andoneotherthing,you'remakingtheassumption,andyou'vesaidit,theSunnisare
appalled.Idon'tknowthattheSunnisareappalled.IknowthatEnglishspeaking
CambridgeandOxfordeducatedSunnisareappalled.
[laughter]
Absolutelyright.Iwillnotquarrelwithyou,buthowmanypeoplearefundingthese
guys?ThisisjustliketheCanadianIRA
JohnDonvan:
Okay.
[talkingsimultaneously]
Yougettotheargument
PhillipZelikow:
Franklyyougettoatangle.It'sjustsohard.They'resomixedup.Let'sjustleavethem
beandit'llbeokay.
DovZakheim:
We'renotsayingleavethembe.Andevenifwe[unintelligible]we'restillnotsaying
leavethembe.
JohnDonvan:
Wait.Wait.
PhillipZelikow:
Whenthisregiondisintegratesyoudon'tthinkwewillbecalledbackin?Doyouthink
thedayafterathousandAmericansarekilledinamasscasualtyattackthatthe
presidentyou'regoingtogotothepresidentoftheUnitedStatesandjusttellhim
doingmoreaboutitistoohard?Iwentthrough9/11.Isawwhathappenedafter9/11.
- 26 -
8/10/2015
18:55:37
[unintelligible],sayingAfghanistanwastheleastaccessibleplaceonearthforU.S.
forces,butman,itwasnottoohardafter9/11.
JohnDonvan:
AnneMarieSlaughter.
DovZakheim:
Waitaminute.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
CanIjustsay
JohnDonvan:
Dov.Dov.Dov.Dov.AnneMarieSlaughteristalkingnow.
[laughter]
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Allright.So,allright.I'mnotgoingtogobackto9/11.Iwanttogobacktothe
Sunnisandwhattheywanttodo.We'veheardoverthepasttwodaysfromProfessor
Haykel,again,somebodywhospenthisentirelifestudyingIslam,studyingSunniIslam,
studyingthetheology.HeestimatesthatroughlyhalfoftheSaudis,halfoftheSaudis,
actuallyaresympathetictoISIS.HesaysthattheSaudigovernmentwillnotsendits
troopsagainstISISbecausetheyarecotribespeopleandsothattheyareworriedthat
theSaudimilitarywillnotfightagainsttheircotribespeople.
MichleFlournoy:
We'renotaskingfortheSaudimilitarytocomeinandfightinIraqandSyria.
18:56:37
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Wellthenwhoareweaskingtofight?
MichleFlournoy:
We'reaskingforthesupporttotheSunniswholiveinIraq,whowanttobeself
governingandtobeincludedintheIraqisociety.LookatthenumberofSunnigroups
onthegroundwhoarefightingISISnowinSyriawithoutadequatesupport.Noone's
talkingaboutbringingintheSaudiArabianmilitaryortheUAE.We'retalkingabout
helpingthepeoplewholiveonthegroundinIraqandSyriatoreclaimtheirownlives
andcommunitiesand
- 27 -
8/10/2015
AnneMarieSlaughter:
sotheverypeoplethattheIraqigovernment
PhillipZelikow:
Shouldwejustletthemgo?
DovZakheim:
No,but
PhillipZelikow:
FiftypercentoftheSaudisnowsympathizewithISIS.That'stheproductofthestatus
quoandweshouldthereforesaygee,thisreallyistoohard.IguessSaudiArabiais
goingtogodownthetubes,too?Wheredoyoustopthis?
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Phil,yousaid
PhillipZelikow:
DovZakheimwastalkingabout
AnneMarieSlaughter:
theSaudigovernmentwas
PhillipZelikow:
So
AnneMarieSlaughter:
goingtofightthem.
JohnDonvan:
Dov,takeit.
DovZakheim:
You'relettingmetalk.
JohnDonvan:
Yes.
DovZakheim:
The
JohnDonvan:
I'veletIthinkthere'sbeenafairamountofDovZakheimlettingtalkandgoingon
- 28 -
8/10/2015
DovZakheim:
Thankyou.
[laughter]
JohnDonvan:
So
DovZakheim:
Thankyouverymuch,Mr.Moderator.
18:57:43
JohnDonvan:
Yes.
DovZakheim:
Ihappened
JohnDonvan:
Mister
DovZakheim:
tobeinthePentagonwhentheywerepickingupbodypartsin9/11.So,Idon'tneed
tobelecturedabout9/11.Look.DoyouhonestlythinkthatevenifwegotridofISIS,we
wouldgetridofa9/11?TherewasnoISISin9/11.AndAlQaedaisstillthere.Andthere
areallthesefranchiseterroristgroupssomeofwhomcallthemselves"ISIS,"someof
whomdon't,whocouldwhoarejustasintentongoingafterus.Thatisnottheissue.
Tothrowupthebugabooofsomeindividualbombergoingafterus,andtherefore,we
somehowdefeatISISitjustdoesn'twork.
MichleFlournoy:
ButthisiswhereI
JohnDonvan:
I'mgoingtoletMichleanswer,andthen
MichleFlournoy:
Iambotheredby
JohnDonvan:
I'mgoingtogotoMichle,canyouhangonjustonesecond?
MichleFlournoy:
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 29 -
8/10/2015
I'msorry.
JohnDonvan:
I'mgoingtoletyouanswer.Ijustwanttogotoquestionsfromyouafterthat.Andwhen
thatcomes,thelightswillcomeup.Thewayitwillworkjustraiseyourhand.
18:58:36
Standup.Amicwillbebroughttoyou.Pleasewaitforthemicbeforeaskingyour
question.Goahead,MichleFlournoy.
MichleFlournoy:
Youknow,you'rerightinthesensethattherewillalwaysbeviolentextremistsofone
sortoranother.Whatweneedtofocusonistryingtoaddresstheconditionsthatmake
wholecommunitiesvulnerabletobeingwiththem.Andthere,wehaveanapproach
thathasnotbeentriedandhasnotbeenfullyresourcedtodothatinIraq.AndIthink
that'samuchharderprobleminSyria.Buttherearethingsthatwehavenottriedthat
canalsodothatinSyria.
Andso,Ithinkgettingwrappedaroundtheaxleabouthowmuchmilitaryintervention
arewetalkingaboutisaveryimportantquestion.Butthefundamentalissueiswhatcan
andshouldwedotoaddressthosefundamentalconditions,becauseifwedon'taddress
them,thisthreatwillreachoutandtouchAmerica.
JohnDonvan:
Butdoyoureallydisagreewiththatstatement?
AnneMarieSlaughter:
No.Imean,nothereisIdon'tthinkthere'sanyoneinthisentireaudiencewhohas
foughtashardasIhave,overthepastthreeyears,totrytouseforcetobringthecivil
warinSyriatoapoliticalconclusion.
18:59:41
So,weareyouknow,ifit'saquestionofwhatdowedotoendthecivilwarinSyria,
I'vegotawholeanotherstrategy.Butwhatwe'retalkingabouthereofcoursewe're
withyouintermsofpushingtheIraqigovernmenttobemoreinclusive.We'rewithyou
diplomatically.We'rewithyouagainonthedigitalstrategy,whichisahugepieceofISIS.
Whatwe'resaying,though,iswhatyou'resayingiswehavetopushthemoutofthe
territorytheyhold.Andwearesayingthereisnowaytoactuallydothatthatdoesnot
actuallyinvolvemassiveU.S.troopsontheground,andthatwecantalkabout
supportingothers.We'vebeentryingthatforalongtime.That'snotgoingtogetus
there.
- 30 -
8/10/2015
PhillipZelikow:
DidyourSyriadidyourstrategytointerveneaggressively
JohnDonvan:
PhilipZelikow.
PhillipZelikow:
toendtheSyriancivilwarrequirelotsofU.S.troopsontheground?
AnneMarieSlaughter:
No.Itdidnot.Itrequired
PhillipZelikow:
So,yououghttojustcomeonoverherenow.
[laughter]
AnneMarieSlaughter:
No.Nope.Nope.Butwe'llthat'saseparatedebate.
19:00:37
JohnDonvan:
Let'sgotoquestions.Rightdowninfronthere.Pleasestandupandletthemiccometo
you.Andifyoucouldtellusyournameaswell.It'scomingfromit'scomingdownthe
aisle,behindyou,totheright.
PeterFeaver:
ThisisPeterFeaver.AndIhaveaquestionforthenatteringnabobs,thenegativism,
overhereonthisside.
[laughter]
You'veinvokedtheexampleofcontainment.Buttheonlyexampleofitworkingin
historythatyou'vementionedisagainstasuperpower,theSovietUnion.Canyoutell
meatimewhencontainmentofaterroristorganizationworked?Andifyou'rewillingto
dotheSovietUnioncontainmentmodel,areyouwillingtocontinuewith,leaderto
leader,summitsbetweentheBaghdadiandmaybeevenpingpongdiplomacywith
howfardownthecontainment
JohnDonvan:
Okay.
PeterFeaver:
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 31 -
8/10/2015
alaSovietUnionareyouwillingtogo?
JohnDonvan:
Thanks.Goodquestion.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Yeah.Sure.
JohnDonvan:
AnneMarieSlaughter.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
So,youjustyouthoughtwewerecontainingasuperpower.Wewerenot.Wewere
containinganideology.
19:01:34
AndwhatisvitalaboutunderstandingISILisit'sjustthelatestmanifestationofan
extremistideologythatsays,"TheonlywaytopurifyIslam,"justasoncetherewere
argumentsabouttheonlywaytopurifyChristianity,"istoreverttoanextremeversion
ofthereligion."So,thebeginningroundofthisis1979,withtheattackonthegreat
mosqueinMecca.Andsimilarly,actually,theIranianrevolution.Thenyouseethe
Taliban.ThenyouseeAlQaeda.
Then,asyou'veheard,youseeBokoHaram.Youseemanifestationsofwhatisa
decadeslongfight.TheArabSpringisanotherversionofit,thatsays,"Thisreligionis
deeply,deeplycorrupt.Itisimpossibletohaveadecentgovernment.Wewanttopurify
thereligionandwewantdecentgovernments.Andit'sjustgoingtokeephappening
untilMuslimsfightitout.Andourargumentiswecancontainit.Weobviouslyhaveto
protectourselves.Butwearenotgoingtobetheonestoactuallywinthisfight.
19:02:45
JohnDonvan:
Iwanttolettheothersiderespondtotheinitialquestion,ifyouwouldliketo.Michle
Flournoy.
MichleFlournoy:
Ithinktheyouknow,thereasonwhyoneofthereasonswhycontainmentworks,
visavisasuperpowerinastateliketheSovietUnion,wasbecauseitwascoupledwith
arobustpolicyofdeterrenceandthethreatofmassiveretaliation.Theseconceptsare
notoperativewhenyou'redealingwithISIS.WhatarewegoingtodotodeterImean,
ISISdeterrenceoftheColdWarsortdoesnotoperatewhen
- 32 -
8/10/2015
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Sureitdoes.
MichleFlournoy:
you'redealingwithatransnationalterroristorganization.
PhillipZelikow:
What'sanexampleofwhat'sworkedwithaterrororganization?
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Quitethecontrary.Theexampleis,aswe'vealsoheardfromtheexpertsonISIL,isthat
ISILthinksthatAlQaeda'sstrategywasafailedstrategybecausetheycauseda
catastrophicattackandpreciselybecausewethenwentinandwipedthemout.
19:03:41
Andtheirstrategyisnottodothat.So,weofcoursearestillgoingtoprotectourselves.
Ifthereissuchanattack,wearegoingtorespond.AndthentheAmericanpeoplewill
supportsendingintroops.Andwewilldowhatwehaveto.Butourpointisthatisnot
theirstrategy.Theirstrategyistoholdterritory.We'regoingtocontainthemthereand
ultimatelylettheMuslimsfightitout.
PhillipZelikow:
Youknow,it'sinteresting
JohnDonvan:
PhilipZelikow.
PhillipZelikow:
whensomeonesaidtodaythat,"Maybewedidn'tneedtoworrysomuchabouta
catastrophicthreat,"itturnedoutthattherecentlyretiredheadoftheBritishSecret
Servicewasatthetable.Andhesaid,"WhenIwaslisteningtoyousaythat,Iwas
thinkingthatneitherInoranyleaderofanysecurityserviceIknowofwouldhave
understoodwhatyouaretalkingabout."Ifthethethreatpicturethattheyareseeing,
thethreatpicturethatcausedthedirectoroftheFBItopubliclysaytwoweeksagothat
ISISisnowtheleadingthreatonhisagenda,thereasontheFBIhasbeenpickingupISIS
supportersinall50statesoftheUnitedStatesduringthelastmonththat'sbecauseof
thethreatpicturethattheyareseeing.
19:04:50
Andthat'sthisyear.That'snot2016.That's2017.Youjustthinkaboutthewaythis
developsintime,becausethisisamuchlargersafehaventhanAlQaedaeverhad.
- 33 -
8/10/2015
JohnDonvan:
Aquestiondownfronthere.Andthemiciscomingdownthisway.
FemaleSpeaker:
MynameisAyaanHirsiAli.AndMichleandPhilip,youmadeafantasticmoralcaseto
defeatISIS.AndIcompletelyagreewithyou.Lastyearthistime,September,our
presidentstoodinfrontoftheworldandsaid,"We'regoingtodegradeanddefeatISIS."
Ourvicepresidenttoldtheworld,"We'regoingtochasethemtothegatesofhell."
19:05:42
Youmadeafantasticcase.AndI'mwithyou.IvotedforitandIthinkI'llvoteforitagain.
JohnDonvan:
Ineedyouto
FemaleSpeaker:
Butthere'saquestion
JohnDonvan:
Ihere'saquestion.
FemaleSpeaker:
Yes.Andhere'sthequestion.Andthequestionthatyouhavetoanswerandyouhaveto
dealisreally,isthisdebateaboutISISorisitaboutAmericanleadership?IstheUnited
StatesofAmericapreparedtotaketheleadinthis?Andforthetwoofyou,whatcase
wouldyoumaketothepresidentialcandidatesandtotheAmericanpeopletotakethat
leadandkeepthatlead?
MichleFlournoy:
Ithinkthe
[applause]
JohnDonvan:
MichleFlournoy.
MichleFlournoy:
Thisisaboutboth.IthinkwehavetomakethecasethatISISisathreatthatwilldirectly,
touchthreatenAmericans,whetherwewantthattobetrueornot,andthatthekind
ofpoliticalstrategy,thekindofcoalition,thekindofeffortthatisgoingtobeneededto
actuallyturnthepresident'sandthevicepresident'swordsintoactionswhichhasnot
fullyhappenedyetthatwillrequireU.S.leadership.
- 34 -
8/10/2015
19:06:52
AndnobodyelsebuttheUnitedStatescanleadthatcoalitiontobeatthisorganization.
JohnDonvan:
Okay.Theothersidedoesnotneedtorespond.Rightdowninfrontthere,sir.Andthe
micisgoingtocomedownyousee.
GrahamAllison:
Greatdebate.GrahamAllison.Ifthisissuchanimminentthreat,whyisitthatourIsraeli
alliesaresorelaxedaboutit?Wehaveatracktwoconversation
JohnDonvan:
Youactuallydidaskaquestion.Thatwasperfect.
[laughter]
SoI'mgoingtogowiththat
[laughter]
becauseIthinkthesepeopleknowthebackgroundonit.SoI'lltakeittoAnneMarie
Slaughter.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
So,Iwouldaskexactlythesamequestion.
19:07:35
Imean,Israel'sourclosestallyintheMiddleEast.Theyarecertainlyeverybitasmuch
enemiesofISISasweare.AsIsaid,ISISfightsthecrusaders,theZionists,theSufisand
theShiitesand,yes,Israellooksatthis,Ithink,andunderstandsthattogetinthereto
theextentthatitwouldtaketorollthembackfromtheirterritoryisimmediatelyto
strengthenthem,becausethenthey'refightingtheZionistenemyandsoIIthink
Israelisverywiseonthis.
JohnDonvan:
Responsefromthisside?PhilZelikow.
PhillipZelikow:
ThepresumptionthatIsraelisrelaxedaboutISIS
[laughter]
- 35 -
8/10/2015
whichwouldyouknow,anymemberofISISifheweretoencounteranIsraelicitizen
inISISterritory,there'sgoingtobeareallygruesomevideothenextweek,okay?Sothe
notionthatputyourselfinIsrael'sposition.Theyhavealotofthingsgoingonintheir
worldrightnow.Palestinians.They'reattackingHezbollahinSyria,whichisalso
fightingonAssad'sside.
19:08:39
So,thenotionthatgee,let'sseeifwecanattack[unintelligible]andbombISISsothat
JewishairplanesarebombingISISandthathelpsusrecruitSunniMuslims?SoIthink
theIsraeli'shavekindoffiguredoutthatthat'snotthepathtoasuccessfulcoalition
strategytodefeatISIS.
JohnDonvan:
Hangonjustonesecond.I'mgoingtoletyourespond.Okay.SomebodyneededI
thoughttotellmesomething.Theywantmetopointtoher.AnneMarieSlaughter.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
MaybetheotherreasontheIsraeli'sarenotquitesoupsetisthatISISisactually
attackingbothHezbollahandHamas.
JohnDonvan:
Let'sgotoanotherquestion.Downfronthere.Sir,ifyoucouldstandup.Themic's
coming.Yeah.
MaleSpeaker:
StefanEdlis[spelledphonetically].Shortstatement.
JohnDonvan:
Veryshort,please.
MaleSpeaker:
Veryshort.
19:09:36
WhentheIrishexcusetheexpression,notIrish,buttheArabSpring.
[laughter]
JohnDonvan:
Iwanttoknowthefreeassociationthatgotyouthere.
[laughter]
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 36 -
8/10/2015
MaleSpeaker:
Theyweresecular.Itturnsouttobethey'reactuallyareligiousrevival.So,areligious
revival.Myquestionisverysimpledirectedtoyou.Wherewouldthemoneycome
fromtoundertakethatgiganticeffortthatyoupropose?
DovZakheim:
Well,asIsaid,Idon'tthink
JohnDonvan:
DovZakheim.
DovZakheim:
Idontthinkthatrightnowwehavethenationalwilltodothisandfranklyevenifwe
startedspendingthemoneyand,youknow,wedospendmoneyonthesesortsof
things,thistakestime.Ineffectwhatyou'redoingwhenyouifweweretodowhat
yousuggest,wewouldbecontainingthem.
19:10:36
Wewouldn'tberollingthembackatthatpoint.Theywouldn'tloseaninchofterritory
becauseofthat.Ittakestime.Ifyouwanttounderminethemthisisoneofthewaysto
doit.Whatyou'retalkingaboutisradiofreeEurope,voiceofAmericaupdatedto2015.
JohnDonvan:
MichleFlournoy.
MichleFlournoy:
Theadministration,theObamaadministration,hasverysuccessfullyputtogethera60
nationcoalition,butwhatwehaven'tyetachievedisacoherentstrategywhere
everybody'spullingintherightdirection,thesamedirection.Oneofthethingsthatour
partnersneedtobeconvincedofisthedegreeofU.S.commitment.IthinkiftheU.S.
showsthatcommitmentwehavealotofleveragetogetotherstobeusingthemoney
they'realreadyputtingintothistheaterinamuchmoreproductiveandeffective
manner.So,we'renotgoingtobefundingthisalone.Wehave60nationssignedupto
help.Whatwehavetodoisuseourcommitmenttobetterleverageandfocusto
betterfocustheeffortsofthewholecoalition,andwehavenotdonethat.
19:11:44
DovZakheim:
Withrespect,youearliersaidwedontwanttorelyontheSaudis.Wewanttorelyon
thelocals.
- 37 -
8/10/2015
MichleFlournoy:
No,IsaidIdon'twanttohaveSaudiforcescomingintoIraqandSyria.
DovZakheim:
Okay.Well,our
MichleFlournoy:
That'sdifferentthanaskingtheSaudistohelpfundaproperstrategythatwehave
helpedtoputtogether.
DovZakheim:
Butpartofourisourcoalitiononlyforfunding?Isthatwhatwe'redoinghere?
MichleFlournoy:
No.Ofcoursenot.Thereareotherthingsaswell,butdoyouthink
DovZakheim:
Well,whatarethoseotherthings?
MichleFlournoy:
it'sasmartideatoputSaudiforcesinIraqandSyria?Idon't.
DovZakheim:
I'mnottheonesuggestingit.You'retheonesuggestingit.
MichleFlournoy:
NoIdidn'tsuggestit.Youputwordsinmymouth.
DovZakheim:
AllI'msayingisyousaidthatit'sthelocalforcesandnowyou'vegota60nation
MichleFlournoy:
LocalSyrianandIraqiforcesfighting
DovZakheim:
Right,andnowyou'retalkingaboutacoalitionthat'sdoingwhat?
JohnDonvan:
Iwanttosayingsomething.Iwanttoremindyouthatwe'reinthequestionandanswer
sectionofthisIntelligenceSquaredU.S.debate.
[laughter]
DovZakheim:
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 38 -
8/10/2015
Iansweredthequestion.
JohnDonvan:
Iwanttoremindyouthatwe'reinthequestionandanswersectionofthisIntelligence
SquaredU.S.debate.I'mJohnDonvan.Wehavefourdebaters.
19:12:37
Twoteamsoftwodebatingthismotion:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBe
Defeated.Let'sgotoanotherquestion,sir.
DavidPatraeus:
IamDavidPetraeusandI
[laughter]
[applause]
andIrisetotakeslightissueandaskaquestionofmyfriend,AnneMarie
Slaughter.AnneMarie,youstatedthatthesurgedidn'twork.Withgreatrespect,Iwas
thereandactually
[laughter]
actuallyitworkedprettyextraordinarily.Imean,drivingviolencedownby85to95
percent.Philremembers.Hewasintheadministration.Weachievedallthe
objectives.Bytheway,AmbassadorCrockerisbackhere,forwhomIwasprivilegedto
bethewingmanashepursuedthediplomaticefforts.Theresultsweresustained,in
fact,forthreeandahalfyearsafterthedrawdownofthesurgeforcesuntilPrime
MinisterMalakiundidthemandallthatweandIraqiforcesachieved,andhealienated
theSunnis.
19:13:40
So,thepointhereisthatheundidthepoliticalbargainthatwasreachedduringthe
surge.ThefurtherpointisthatthecenterofgravityofthefightagainstISISisnotinthe
frontlinesit'sinBaghdadinIraqipoliticsandindeedinvariousSyrianlocations
JohnDonvan:
Wait.Ihavetostopyou.I'mgivingyoualotofleewaybecauseofyourservice,but
ultimatelydemocraticallyIneedtoaskyoutoaskaquestion.
DavidPatraeus:
Okay.
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 39 -
8/10/2015
JohnDonvan:
Popit.
DavidPatraeus:
Thequestion.Canyoubeconfident,AnneMarie,thatallowingISIStocontinueto
controllargeareasofSyria,i.e.,justcontainingthem,andIraq,canallowthenew
politicaldiscussionsthataresoimportantinensuringmultisectarianandmultiethnic
populationsthattheycanenterintothenewbargainsintheshadowofareasfrom
whichcontained,butundefeatedISISextremistswillcontinuetoprojectviolence
seekingtospreadthehorrifichumanitariansituationandgeopoliticalChernobylthatis
[laughter]
[applause]
Syria.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Dave.
19:14:42
[applause]
So,GeneralPetraeus,evenso,GeneralPetraeus,eventhoughwearebothproud
graduatesoftheWoodrowWilsonSchool,Icouldnotquitekeepallofthatinmyhead
atonemoment,butwhatIwillsayisIdidnotsaythatthesurgewasnot
successful.Thesurgewassuccessfulandno,Ididnot.Isaiditwas
JohnDonvan:
Iagain,Idon'twanttheaudiencedebatingwiththedebaters,sothefloorisyours.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
ItwasabsolutelysuccessfulandthenyouleftandthenweleftandthentheIraqisdid
notdowhattheyshouldbedoingtoliberatetheirowncountryontheirownandweare
backhereagain.Asyousaidfromthestage,Iwasthere.WeliberatedMosul,but
MosulisnowonceagainunderISILcontrolorunderaviolentextremistIslamicgroup.
19:15:37
Sothat'sexactlywhatI'msaying.IfwecouldkeepDavidPetraeusonthegroundinIraq
workingwithChesterCrocker[sic]advisingtheIraqigovernmenteverystepoftheway,
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 40 -
8/10/2015
yesIthinkwewouldsucceed.Mypointiswearenotgoingtodothatandbecause
we'renotgoingtodothattryingtodoitonemoretimewejustdoitroundandround
androundandwedonotultimatelydowhatweneedtodotoletthisfightplayoutas
it'sgoingtoplayoutonitsown.I'msorry.
JohnDonvan:
MichleFlournoy.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
RyanCrockerImhavingterribletimetoday.
JohnDonvan:
Michle.
MichleFlournoy:
IthinkthequestionwasinthefaceofstillvibrantISISinIraqandSyria,youcan'thow
canyougettothepoliticalprogressthatwillultimatelyresolvethesesituations?You
arguedfordiplomacyandpoliticalsettlementonbothsidesofthisborderaspartof
yourstrategyaswell,butyoucan'tgetthereaslongasISISisavibrantforce.
19:16:39
AnneMarieSlaughter:
WeagreethatifyouwanttorollbackISISandtakethemout,allright,thenand
you'rewillingtostay,youcangetwhatdidyousay,GeneralPetraeus,Ithinkyousaid
maturingmultisectarianpopulations.
JohnDonvan:
Therearenolifelinesinthedebate.
[laughter]
AnneMarieSlaughter:
Ihaven'tseenallright.
JohnDonvan:
Youcan'tcallout.Sorry.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
MypointwasIhavenotseenthat,butifweweretogetthereit'sgoingtotakeactually
pushingthemoutand,onceagain,youdon'thaveastrategythatcandothatabsent
U.S.troops.
MichleFlournoy:
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 41 -
8/10/2015
Webelievethatwedoandwe'veexplainedit,butIthinkabsentthat,youare
condemningthisregiontoperpetualinstability,civilwar,violence,andthelaunching
theincubationofterrorismagainsttheWest.Andagainstus.
JohnDonvan:
AndthatconcludesRound2ofthisIntelligenceSquaredU.S.debate,whereourmotion
isContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.
19:17:41
[applause]
Now,wemoveontoRound3.Round3arewherethedebatersmakeclosingstatements
fromtheirseats.Theywillbetwominuteseach.Heretomakehisclosingstatementfor
themotionContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated,PhilipZelikow,professor
ofhistoryattheUniversityofVirginia,formercounselorfortheDepartmentofState.
PhillipZelikow:
OneofthethingsIhadthesadtaskofdoingyearsagowastobetheExecutiveDirector
ofthe9/11commission.Thisisthecommissionthatwascalledupontoinvestigateafter
thefactwhathadhappened.Andofcourse,foryearsbefore9/11,weknewAlQaeda
wasatwarwithus.Well,weweren'tsuretheyweregoingtocometothehomeland.
Andbesides,ifyoulookedattheproblemandpeoplediditwasjustsohard.Lookat
whowe'dhavetoworkwithinAfghanistantheNorthernAlliance.Thepoliticsofthe
NorthernAlliancewerenightmarish.Therewerethugsandwarlordsamongthem.
19:18:40
Andbesides,ifyouwantedtodosomethingwithsomespecialforces,there'dberisksto
Americans.Andofcoursethencame9/11.AndthenhereIaminterviewinggenerals,
andnationalsecurityadvisers,andevenformerpresidents.Andit's"Wishwecoulda,
wishweshoulda."Allthethingsthatalltheoptionstheythoughtofdoing,they
considered,andtheyweretoocostly,toorisky.AndthepoliticsofAfghanistanwastoo
hard.ButwasitreallythenbetternowtothenhavetooccupyAfghanistanandwe're
stillthere14andahalfyearslater,becausewedidn'ttaketherisks,themessypolitics,
thehardlaboringwithsomeeffort?Instead,weendedupwithcatastropheanda
catastrophiccommitmentoftheUnitedStates.Ifyouwanttoavoidthatkindof
catastrophiccommitment,votefortheresolution,becauseweneedtonipthisinthe
bud.
19:19:39
Weneedtodealwiththisinfectionnowbeforethegangrenespreadsandthesurgeon
bringsoutthehacksaw.
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 42 -
8/10/2015
JohnDonvan:
Thankyou,PhilipZelikow.
[applause]
Themotion:ContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.Andheretomakeher
closingstatementagainstthemotion,AnneMarieSlaughter,presidentandCEOofNew
AmericaandformerdirectorofpolicyplanningfortheDepartmentofState.
AnneMarieSlaughter:
So,thelasttimeIwasonthisstage,Iwastalkingaboutmale/femaleequality.It's
anotherhatthatIwear.Andfromthatperspective,ISISdoesabsolutelyunspeakable
thingstowomen.Infact,ISISISshouldstandfor"internationalsextrafficking,"
becausethatiswhattheydo.Inhideousways.AndI'mnothesitantabouttheuseof
force,andI'mdefinitelynothesitantaboutU.S.leadershipintheworld.
19:20:32
ThereasonI'mtakingthepositionI'mtakingisbecausewhenIreadthepropositionthat
said"Containmentisnotenough:ISISmustbedefeated,"Isaw,onceagain,theUnited
Statesmakingthemistakeofbelievingthatwecouldsolveaproblemthatisadecades
long,maybecenturylongstruggle,fight,war,butamongMuslims.Weshouldprotect
ourselves,absolutely.Weshoulddoeverythingwecandiplomatically,digitally.Andyes,
ifthereisthatcoalitionofotherstatesorstrongfightersthatwecansupport,Iwould
supportthem.Butwhat'sreallyatissueheretheonlythingwe'redisagreeingaboutis
doyoustopthemwheretheyareordoyourollthemback?Doyoutakeawaytheir
territory?
19:21:30
Andmypropositionisthatifwe,theUnitedStates,trytoleadacoalitiontotakeaway
theirterritory,wewillonceagainfindourselvesinthemidstofsomeoneelse'sfightina
waywedonotunderstand,andwe'reoftenproducingpreciselytheconsequenceswe
wishtoavoid.
[applause]
JohnDonvan:
Thankyou,AnneMarieSlaughter.ThemotionisContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMust
BeDefeated.Andheretomakeherclosingstatementinsupportofthemotion,Michle
Flournoy,cofounderandCEOoftheCenterforaNewAmericanSecurityandformer
UndersecretaryofDefense.
- 43 -
8/10/2015
MichleFlournoy:
OneofthemostsearingmemoriesofmytimeinthePentagonwasavisittoDoverAir
ForceBase.DoverAirForceBaseiswheretheremainsoffallenU.S.servicemeninIraq,
Afghanistan,whereverarebroughtbacktotheUnitedStates.Itisthefirstplace
wherethefamiliesofthefallenareabletoreceivetheirlovedones.OnthenightIwas
there,myfirstvisit,itwasbitterlycold.
19:22:38
Wewerewaitingonthetarmacforwhatseemedlikeforever,foralargemilitary
transportplanetocomein.Eventually,theplanecamein,landed,andtaxiedtoastop
onthetarmac.Offtotheside,nearby,awayfromthepress,wasaboutwereabouta
dozengrieving,griefstrickenfamilieswhoweretheretoreceiveafather,ahusband,a
brother,adaughter,asister.Andwewaitedforwhatseemedlikeaneternity.And
eventually,thebackoftheplaneopenedtorevealarowofflagdrapedcaskets.And
onebyone,eachofthosewaslovinglycarriedbyagroupofsoldiersofftoanawaiting
family.Itwasajustunbearableanddevastatingscene.Thiswasthecostthehuman
costofwar.
19:23:39
ThiswasAmericanswhohadsacrificedeverythingfortheircountryandfamilieswho
wouldneveragainbethesame.Whenwethinkabouthowwe'regoingtofightorhow
wedealwithISIS,weneedtothinkaboutDover,thehumancostofthechoiceswe
makeandthechoiceswefailtomake.AndIamheretodayfirmlybelievingthatifwedo
notadoptamorerobustandwellresourcedstrategy,wherewe'renotdoingitallby
ourselves,butweareleadinganinternationalcoalitiontofightthishorrificmovement,
wewillspendmorebloodandtreasuredowntheroad.
JohnDonvan:
MichleFlournoy,I'msorry.Yourtimeisup.Thankyou.
[applause]
ThemotionisContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMustBeDefeated.Andheretomakehis
closingstatement,DovZakheim,asenioradviserattheCenterforStrategicand
InternationalStudies,andformerUndersecretaryofDefense.
19:24:43
DovZakheim:
In2002,Iwasaskedtohelpgettroopsandfundsforthatcoalitionfirstthecoalitionin
Afghanistan,thenthecoalitioninIraq.Igotmoney.Ididn'tgetanytroopsfrom
Muslims.NotoneMuslimcountrysenttroopsin,asIrecall.Somehelpedwithtraining
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 44 -
8/10/2015
intheirowncountries.Totalkofcoalitionsistotalk,essentiallyiftheBritswantto
playagainofaU.S.U.K,coalitionwithalotofotherflags.It'snotgoingtowork.
GeneralPetraeusisright.Thesurgeworked.Phil,youreright.Withover100,000
troops.AndIremembersittingnexttotheDeputySecretaryofDefenseandtestifying,
whothensaidthatGeneralShinsekiwaswrongwhenhesaidweneededseveral
hundredthousandtroopstowininIraq.
19:25:35
WedidputsixfiguresoftroopsinIraq.LotsoftroopsinAfghanistan.Butthat'sbehind
us.It'snot9/11anymore.It'snot9/12.Wehaveahistoryofbeinginthere.Theydon't
wantus.So,wehavethisHobbesianchoice:putinloadsoftroops,beatISISbackroll
themback,asyouwouldlikeandtaketheriskofalienatingtheArabs.Oralternately,
holdingtheminplace,doingalltheotherthingsyoutalkabout.Butit'lltaketime.It'll
takemoney.It'lltakewill.Anditain'tgoingtohappenovernight.AndIgobacktowhatI
saidearlier.Youhavemadethebestargumentsforcontainmentwiththeexceptionof
mypartner,ofcoursethatI'veheardtonight.Wecannotbeatthesepeopleunlesswe
areabsolutelycommittedtomoremoney,moretroops,morewill.Itain'tgoingto
happen.Thankyou.
19:26:33
JohnDonvan:
Thankyou,DovZakheim.
[applause]
AndthatconcludesclosingstatementsinRound3.Andnowit'stimetolearnwhichside
youbelievehasarguedthebest.I'mgoingtoaskyouagaintogotothekeypadsatyour
seatandvoteasyoudidatthebeginning.Takealookatthemotionagain.Paycareful
attentiontothephrasing,soyouareclearwhichsideyou'revotingon.Butifit'sforthis
team,it'sNumber1.Andifit'sforthisteam,it'sNumber2.
Andifyoubecameorremainundecided,it'sNumber3.Andwe'lltakeabout15to20
secondstoletyoucompletethevoteandlockitout.Okay.Whilethat'shappening,I
wouldjustliketosayafewthings.Firstofall,it'sourgoalatIntelligenceSquaredto
havedebatesliketheonewejusthad.Reallypassionateargument,broughtwith
respectinformation,intelligence,civilityIwanttocongratulateallofthesedebatersfor
whattheydid.
[applause]
It'sreallyapleasureforusalsotobepartneringagainwiththeAspenStrategyGroup
andwejustneedtothankafewpeople.
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 45 -
8/10/2015
19:27:43
Firstofall,JoeNyeandBrentScowcroft.Thankyouverymuchforhavingushereagain.
[applause]
Groupdirectorandalsoamemberofouradvisoryboard,NickBurns.Thankyouvery
much.
[applause]
AndDeputyDirectorJonathonPrice.Thankyou.AndtheAspenInstitutePresidentand
CEOWalterIsaacson.
[applause]
AndagainwewanttothankthefoundersofIntelligenceSquaredU.S.,Robert
RosenkranzandAlexandraMunroe.
[applause]
Theotherthing,asIsaidatthebeginning,thisisactuallyaphilanthropic
organization.Wethispodcastandradiobroadcastwegiveouttotheworldforfree
andwe'renowatthepointwheremillionsofpeoplearelisteningtothemandwerely
onthesupportofalotofdonorswhoarealsointhegroup.So,withoutnamingyouI
wanttothankyouallforyourinvolvementandsupport.
19:28:39
[applause]
IalsowanttotakethisopportunitytosaytoGeneralPetraeusIknowthatforalong
timewe'vebeentryingtobookyoutobeinoneofourdebates.
[laughter]
AndIthinkyou'reindicatingnowthatyoumaybeinterested,thatyou'rebookable,
becausewewouldlovetohaveyouinthefuture.So,wewillbesurroundingyoufor
emaillater.Becausefromtheaudienceyoudebateprettywell.
[applause]
We'reputtingthefinaltouchesonourupcomingfallseason.Iknowalotofyoudoget
toNewYork,sowewanttogiveyoualittlelookaheadatthetopicswe'llbedoing
Prepared by National Capitol Contracting
- 46 -
8/10/2015
there.Broadly,wedon'thavethemotionslanguageframedyet,butthetopicsare
sexualassaultoncampus,theChinesepoliticalandeconomicmodel,thenation's
infrastructure,centralbanks,andaffirmativeaction.We'regoingtobeatGeorge
WashingtonUniversitydebatingtheuseofsmartdrugsandwe'regoingtobeat
NorthwesternLawSchooldebatingprosecutorialabuse.Wewillhavethefulllineupset
bytheendofthemonthandyoucangetitbyvisitingourwebsiteiq2US.org.
19:29:41
Youcanbuyticketsthere.Youcanalsosignupforoureblastand,again,thisdebate
andallofourdebates,we'renowatIthink107sincewestarted,areallavailableviaour
app,whichyoucandownloadfromtheApplestoreandfromtheGooglePlay
store.Okay.Theresultsareallinnow.Again,themotionisthis:ContainmentisNot
Enough:ISISMustBeDefeated.Wehadteamsarguingforandagainst.Youvoted
twice.Again,theteamwhosenumberschangedthemostbetweenthefirstandthe
secondvotewillbedeclaredourwinner.
Let'slookatthepreliminaryvote.OnthemotionContainmentisNotEnough:ISISMust
BeDefeatedbeforeyouhardthearguments52percentofyouagreed,27percentwere
against,21percentwereundecided.Thosearethefirstresults.Remember,again,it's
goingtobethedifference.Let'slookatthesecondvote.OnContainmentisNot
Enough:ISISMustBeDefeatedtheteamarguingforthemotiontheirsecondvote32
percent.
19:30:39
Theywentfrom52percentto32percent.Theylost20percentagepoints.Team
arguingagainsttheirfirstvotewas27percent,second59percent.Theywentup32
percentagepoints.
[applause]
Theteamarguingagainstthemotiondeclaredourwinner.Ourcongratulationsto
them.Thankyoufromme,JonDonvanandIntelligenceSquaredU.S.We'llseeyounext
time.
19:31:00