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Commodity
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Contents
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Special Focus: Resource development in an era of rising vulnerabilities and low commodity prices . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Commodity Market Developments and Outlook
Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Fertilizers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Metals and minerals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Precious metals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Appendix A: Historical commodity prices and price forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Appendix B: Commodity balances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Appendix C: Description of price series. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Figures
1
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
F6
F7
F8
Coal consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Coffee prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
18
Cotton stocks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
19
Fertilizer prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Tables
1
Annex
Acknowledgments
Acknowledgments
This World Bank Group Report is a product of the Prospects Group in the Development Economics Vice
Presidency. The report was managed by John Baffes under the general guidance of Ayhan Kose and
Franziska Ohnsorge.
Many people contributed to the report. John Baffes
authored the section on agriculture. Shane Streifel
authored the sections on energy, fertilizers,
metals, and precious metals. Christian Eigen-Zucchi
was the principal contributor of the Special Focus
section on the implications of on resource development
in an era of low commodity prices. Xinghao Gong
managed the price database and assisted with the
Annex tables. The design and production of the report
was managed by Maria Hazel Macadangdang and
Adriana Maximiliano. Vandana Chandra, Graeme
Littler, Boaz Nandwa, Yirbehogre Modeste Some,
Dana Vorisek, and Lou Wells provided extensive
editorial comments. David Rosenblatt reviewed the
report. Mark Felsenthal, Phillip Jeremy Hay, and
Mikael Reventar managed the media relations and
dissemination. The accompanying website was
produced by Graeme Littler.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A RY
Executive Summary
Most commodity price indexes rebounded in February-March from their January lows on improved market sentiment
and a weakening dollar. Still, average prices for the first quarter fell compared to the last quarter of 2015, with energy
prices down 21 percent and non-energy prices lower by 2 percent. Given the recent rebound in oil prices and expected
supply tightening in the second half of the year, the crude oil price forecast for 2016 has been raised to $41 per barrel
(bbl), up from $37/bbl in the January assessment (and represents a drop of 19 percent from 2015.) Metals prices are
projected to decline 8 percent, a slightly smaller drop than anticipated in January due to supply reductions. Agricultural prices have been revised marginally lower on signs of adequate harvests in major producers, and are expected to
register a decline of 4 percent from last year. Looking to 2017, a modest price recovery is projected for most commodities
as demand strengthens. Crude oil is projected to rise to $50/bbl as the market moves into balance. This issue of the
Commodity Markets Outlook examines the implications of resource development in an era of lower commodity prices
and concludes that ambitious improvements in governance and sounder macroeconomic policies are required to mitigate delays and risks.
Trends. Energy prices fell 21 percent in the first quarter of 2016 (Figure 1). Oil prices led the decline by
dropping 22 percent owing to resilient non-OPEC oil
production, expanding supplies from Iran, and weak
seasonal demand. Natural gas and coal prices are
down 15 and 3 percent, respectively, due to oversupply. Oil prices rose from $25/bbl in mid-January to
more than $40/bbl in mid-April due a number of supply issues, notably outages in Iraq and Nigeria. In addition, oil production in the U.S. fell in December,
the first year-on-year drop in several years, and there
are indications that output declines may accelerate
during 2016. A proposal by key OPEC and nonOPEC producers to freeze production at January levels failed to materialize at the Doha meeting on April
17.
Outlook and risks. All main commodity price indexes are expected to decline in 2016 due to persistently abundant supplies and, in the case of industrial
commodities, weak growth prospects in emerging
US$/bbl
150
70
Energy
130
Agriculture
110
50
90
40
41.00
41.17
World Bank
forecast
Brent
Futures
39.55
Metals
70
30
50
30
Jan-11
57.95
60
20
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Consensus
Historical
average
10
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A RY
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
TABLE 1 Nominal price indexes (actual and forecasts) and forecast revisions
Revision2
Change (%)
2013
2014
2015
2016F1
Energy
128
127
118
65
52
Non-Energy3
110
102
97
82
78
80
-5.1
2.3
-1.1
-1.0
Agriculture
114
106
103
89
86
88
-3.5
1.8
-1.9
-1.7
Beverages
Food
2017F1
2015-16
2016-17
2016F
2017F
63
-19.3
20.0
3.5
1.3
93
83
102
94
89
89
-4.6
-0.5
-3.5
-3.1
124
116
107
91
88
90
-3.4
2.1
-1.5
-1.4
126
116
109
85
82
85
-3.4
3.0
-1.1
-1.0
Grains
141
128
104
89
84
86
-5.3
2.8
-1.6
-1.5
Other food
107
104
108
100
98
99
-1.9
0.5
-2.0
-1.8
Raw Materials
101
95
92
83
81
83
-2.9
2.4
-2.0
-1.8
138
114
100
95
83
84
-13.2
1.4
-8.9
-8.0
96
91
85
67
61
64
-8.2
3.7
1.4
1.1
138
115
101
91
89
88
-1.7
-1.0
5.7
5.0
Fertilizers
Metals and minerals
Precious Metals3
Memorandum items
Crude oil ($/bbl)
Gold ($/toz)
105
104
96
51
41
50
-19.2
21.9
4.0
2.0
1,670
1,411
1,266
1,161
1,150
1,132
-0.9
-1.5
75.0
65.9
SPECIAL FOCUS:
Resource development in an era
of cheap commodities
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
SPECIAL FOCUS
Introduction
The post-2000 commodity price increases, in part a
reflection of demand growing faster than supply and
concerns about the security of supply, set in motion a
boom in commodities exploration, investment, and
production, especially in mining and hydrocarbons
(Figure F1). Less is known about the scale of investment that flowed into agriculture, but private sector
investment in farmland in Africa increased significantly (FAO 2012).2
This Special Focus addresses the following three question: (1) How did resource development evolve
through the post-2000 price super-cycle? (2) What
are the main drivers of resource development? (3)
What are the implications of the decline in metal
prices for resource development?
Bauxite
Lead
120
Coal
Nickel
100
Zinc
80
Tin
US$, billion
600
Crude oil exploration & production spending (RHS)
Base metal companies capital expenditures (LHS)
500
400
300
60
Gas
200
40
Copper
100
20
Oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Thousands
13
14
SPECIAL FOCUS
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Africa
Offshore Brazil
Australia
Canada
Central Asia
Western Europe
10
15
20
25
30
Percent of world total
10
15
20
25
30
Number of fields
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
SPECIAL FOCUS
ple, the rig count in Africa and Latin America responded quickly to rising oil prices, but also declined
sharply following the oil price plunge (Figure F6).
Cost of capital. Global mining, oil, and gas production has been dominated by large transnational companies, but the structure of the industry has changed
over the past decade. Smaller, younger companies
have emerged as risk takers at the forefront of exploration, whereas larger developers and operators tended
to enter projects only after the discovery of deposits
(UNECA 2011; Gelb, Kaiser, and Vinuela 2012).
Spending by junior companies is primarily driven by
the availability of funding, facilitated by favorable
global financing conditions in recent years (Schodde
2013). In addition, China has emerged as a major
source of exploration and development finance in Africa, broadening choices for governments in the
region.
Commodity prices. Between 2000 and 2010, real energy and metal prices doubled, real precious metal
prices tripled, and real agricultural prices increased
more than 60 percent. Surging prices stimulated a
sharp increase in industry spending on exploration,
investment, and production, including in many lowincome countries and difficult-to-reach places.5 For
example, mining exploration expenditures in Africa
reached an estimated $4.5 billion in 2012, up from
just $0.3 billion in 2000 (UNECA 2011, Schodde
2014). Conversely, lower commodity prices have a
negative impact on resource development. For exam-
Number of rigs
480
140
South Asia*
120
Average 1950-70s
Average 1980-90s
Average 2000s
Sub-Sarahan Africa
East Asia and Pacific
40
20
30
40
Number of years
Source: http://pumpkinhollowcopper.com/project-timeline/.
Notes: Based on a sample of 46 countries with copper discoveries and 73 countries with gold discoveries. Regions refer to World Bank classification. (*) indicates
that data is not available for 2000s.
380
330
80
60
10
Latin America(RHS)
100
High-income countries
430
20
2000
280
230
Africa (LHS)
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
180
15
16
SPECIAL FOCUS
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
30
-1
25
-2
20
-3
Copper
15
-4
-5
10
Gold
5
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 45 50 55 60
Number of years in lead time
Source: http://pumpkinhollowcopper.com/project-timeline/.
Note: Number of discoveries for each number of years.
EMDE
Average
mine
EMDE
Largest
mines
LIC
Average
mine
LIC
Largest
mines
EMDE
All
mines
LIC
All
mines
Governance level
improves
Source: http://pumpkinhollowcopper.com/project-timeline/.
Notes: The bars indicate a range of reduction in lead times. The governance scenarios are: EMDE governance level reaches that of Canada, and LIC governance
level reaches that of Chile.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
SPECIAL FOCUS
often associated with resource development, as governments and private sectors borrow and invest in anticipation of future income growth. Such vulnerabilities are especially sizeable in small, low-income
countries where resource development accounts for a
sizeable share of economic activity. In countries where
resource development is still in initial stages, further
delays may contain vulnerabilities and reduce the
long-term risk of stranded assets (Stevens, Lahn, and
Kooroshy 2015).
Conclusion
Given that resource development, production, and
revenue streams take place over decades, with substantial sunk costs along the way, longer term commodity
price prospects are critical in deciding whether to develop a discovery into production. In 2016, the outlook for an era of low commodity prices had already
set back many resource development projects. Ambitious improvements in business climates along with
better and more predictable macroeconomic policies
will be needed to offset these headwinds to resource
development. Governments seeking to develop natural resources may consider delaying new initiatives
until the price outlook turns more favorable.
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
Coal
Gas
Oil
2000
Africa
18.42
0.46
0.17
0.07
0.00
0.29
2.61
2.33
7.76
Asia
17.21
1.90
0.77
0.19
0.15
2.18
18.46
4.45
7.07
Europe
3.87
0.81
0.35
0.02
0.00
0.89
4.73
5.12
6.98
FSU
8.73
1.09
0.05
0.27
0.01
0.46
4.03
11.73
8.03
Latin America
Middle East
Oceania
US and Canada
Total
36.17
5.70
0.45
0.16
0.06
1.67
0.79
2.51
10.11
0.49
0.15
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.08
0.01
3.73
23.72
53.80
1.04
0.68
0.30
0.01
1.42
3.38
0.56
0.82
0.20
2.07
0.60
0.19
0.00
1.83
12.18
13.19
10.44
138.89
13.21
3.08
1.19
0.23
8.82
46.20
43.62
74.93
2014
Africa
21.31
2.06
0.09
0.10
0.01
0.33
3.04
3.65
8.26
Asia
91.50
2.82
3.09
0.68
0.27
6.28
48.79
8.57
7.88
2.63
0.87
0.29
0.06
0.00
0.80
3.53
4.36
3.40
FSU
Europe
10.10
1.32
0.26
0.26
0.00
0.65
5.31
13.69
13.80
Latin America
53.12
8.07
0.67
0.22
0.06
2.74
1.44
4.20
10.40
2.86
0.22
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.16
0.01
10.82
28.55
78.63
1.04
0.73
0.44
0.01
1.56
5.67
1.00
0.45
Middle East
Oceania
US and Canada
Total
Change, 2000-14 (percent)
0.13
2.08
0.39
0.24
0.00
1.18
10.89
16.28
15.94
260.29
18.48
5.56
2.01
0.35
13.71
78.67
62.55
88.67
87.4
39.9
80.5
68.9
52.2
55.4
70.3
43.4
18.3
17
18
SPECIAL FOCUS
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Endnotes
References
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19 (1): 1-24.
Arezki, R., V. A. Ramey, and L. Sheng. 2015. News
Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant
Oil Discoveries. NBER Working Paper 20857,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Bai, G, and Y. Xu. 2014. Giant Fields Retain Dominance in the Reserves Growth. Oil and Gas Journal
122 (2): 44-51.
Basu, P., R. Verma, R. Paul, and K. Viswanath. 2010.
Deep Waters of Rakhine Basin - A New Frontier.
8th Biannual International Conference and Exposition on Petroleum Geophysics. Hyderabad, India.
http://www.spgindia.org/2010/160.pdf.
Clo, A. 2000. Oil Economics and Policy. New York:
Springer Science and Business Media.
Crowson, P. 2011. Economics of the Minerals Industry. In SME Mining Engineering Handbook, edited
by Peter Darling. Englewood, CO: Society for Mining, Metallurgy and Exploration.
Decker, R. A., A. Flaaen, and M. D. Tito. 2016. "Unraveling the Oil Conundrum: Productivity Improvements and Cost Declines in the U.S. Shale Oil
Industry," FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March
22, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.
1736.
Deloitte & Touche. 2015. State of Mining in Africa in
the Spotlight. Johannesburg: Deloitte & Touche.
EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration).
2013. Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale
Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States.
https://eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/
archive/2013/pdf/fullreport_2013.pdf.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations). 2012. Proceedings of a Technical
Workshop on Policies for Promoting Investment in
Agriculture, 1213 December, 12-13. FAO, Rome.
http://fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/tcsp/docs/
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SPECIAL FOCUS
World Bank. 2015a. Global Economic Prospects: Having Fiscal Space and Using It. January 2015. Washington, DC: World Bank.
______. 2015b. The Power of the Mine: A Transformative Opportunity for Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank.
19
Commodity Market
Developments
and Outlook
Energy
Agriculture
Fertilizers
Metals and minerals
Precious metals
C O M M O D I T Y M AR K E T S O U T L O O K
april 2016
Energy
The World Bank Energy Price Index fell 21 percent
in the first quarter of 2016 from the previous quarter.
Oil led the decline by dropping 22 percent on weak
demand and well-supplied markets. Natural gas and
coal dropped 15 and 3 percent, respectively. However,
oil prices recovered from lows in mid-January on
improving market sentiment.
Crude oil
After dropping to $25/bbl in mid-January, oil prices
rebounded to more than $40/bbl in mid-April on improved sentiment and investor short covering (Figure
3). However, average oil prices were down 22 for the
quarter and 70 percent from June 2014.
The rally during the quarter reflected a number of
supply side factors, notably disruptions in Iraq and
Nigeria. In addition, the United States reported that
oil production in December fell year-on-year for the
first time in several years, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections show falling
output accelerating in 2016. Expectations of a production freeze among a number of OPEC and nonOPEC countries at a meeting in Doha on April 17
ended without an agreement. A weaker dollar and
improved oil demand sentiment also contributed to
the rally.
Despite the improved sentiment, the oil market remains oversupplied with stocks near record levels.
Given that crude oil demand typically weakens in late
winter and spring due to refinery maintenance, stocks
are likely to stay high until demand picks up in the
second quarter.
US$/bbl
70
OECD
China
Other Non-OECD
60
Brent
50
40
WTI
-2
30
20
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Source: Bloomberg.
Notes: Daily frequency. Last observation is April 22, 2016.
Jan-16
Apr-16
-4
2007Q1
2009Q1
2011Q1
2013Q1
2015Q1
23
24
april 2016
operating improvements include shorter drilling cycles, longer laterals, multi-well drilling pads, tighter
well spacing, greater proppant use, better geo-steering, and re-fracking of wells. There is also a significant
backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells that can be
completed at roughly two-thirds the cost of a new
well.
U.S. oil production recorded a year-on-year decline in
December, the first material drop in nearly 10 years
(Figure 5). The U.S. EIA projects that production will
decline from 9.3 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2015
to 7.9 mb/d in third quarter of 2017 before trending
upward. U.S. upstream investment is estimated to
have declined by at least one-third last year, and is
likely to fall another 40 percent this year. Consequently, rigs drilling for oil have plunged by more
than three-quarters from their October 2014 high
(Figure 6).
Still, there is large uncertainty as to how far production will decline, or when it may start rising again.
The recent oil price rally brought some relief to producers cash flow, and many hedged production forward at higher prices, thereby delaying supply rebalancing. Higher prices and continued efficiency
improvements could further impinge on required rebalancing. On the other hand, the industry borrowed
heavily during the boom years, outspending cash flow,
and many companies are encumbered with debt, selling assets, and entering into bankruptcy (and not
confined to U.S. producers). With external financing
increasingly closed, companies will need greater cash
flow generation to fund drilling and completion of
wellswhich will depend on the level of prices. In
addition, cost reductions and efficiency improvements may be more difficult going forward as much as
the potential gains have already been achieved.
US$/bbl
150
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.5
Jan-07
125
1,500
100
1,200
75
900
50
600
25
-1.0
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Rig count
1,800
0
Jan-07
300
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
C O M M O D I T Y M AR K E T S O U T L O O K
april 2016
mb/d
14
Other Gulf
13
12
Million barrels
1,200
1,100
11
Saudi Arabia
10
1,000
9
8
7
Jan-07
Non Gulf
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
5-year average
900
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
25
26
april 2016
Coal
Natural gas
US$/mmbtu
20
China
1,500
Natural Gas
(Japan)
15
OECD
1,000
10
Other
500
Natural Gas
(U.S.)
Natural Gas
(Europe)
FSU
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
0
Jan-00
Coal
(Australia)
Jan-03
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-12
Jan-15
C O M M O D I T Y M AR K E T S O U T L O O K
april 2016
Agriculture
Food
Agricultural prices continued their broad-based decline in the first quarter of 2016, with the overall index down 1.4 percentthe eighth consecutive quarterly declineand 9 percent lower than a year ago
(Figure 11). The decline was driven primarily by a 7.5
percent drop in the Beverage Price Index and a 1.8
percent decline in the Agricultural Raw Material Index. The two key food price indexes, grains, and oils
and meals, increased marginally in the quarter as a
whole as their January-February weakness was offset
by a recovery in March, which continued into early
April. The rebound of these two price indexes later in
the quarter reflects El Nio-related production shortfalls in some commodities, notably rice and palm oil
(both dominated by producers in Southeast Asia,
where El Nio had its strongest impact) and wheat
(following a switch to maize by U.S. producers, as indicated by the planting intentions survey data published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture).
Most agricultural commodity prices are expected to
fall in 2016, before recovering marginally in 2017.
Grain prices are projected to decline by 5.3 percent in
2016 (a downward revision from a 3.4 percent drop
projected in the January 2016 Commodity Markets
Outlook), while oils and meals are expected to fall 3.4
percent (down from a 2.2 percent decline projected in
January). Beverages and raw material prices are projected to drop as well, by 4.6 and 2.9 percent, respectively. Downside risks to the price forecast for agricultural commodity prices include a deterioration of
weather due to La Niaa cooling of the equatorial
Pacific Ocean. The main upside risk to the forecast is
greater engagement in farm support policies. Upside
or downside risks could also stem from energy prices,
given the energy-intensive nature of agriculture.
FIGURE 11 Agriculture price indexes
US$ indexes, 2010=100
140
Food
-10
120
Raw
materials
100
80
60
Jan-07
-20
-30
Beverages
-40
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
2011Q1-2015Q1
2015Q1-2016Q1
Oils and
meals
Grains
Beverages
Other food
Raw
materials
27
28
april 2016
Risks
This forecast for food prices is subject to a number of
short- and long-term risks. The most important are
the evolution of energy prices; weather patterns (especially the possibility of a La Nia episode in late
2016); and trade policies, including policies aimed at
supporting commodity producers and biofuel
production.
Production
Consumption
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
-2
Palm oil
Soybean oil
Rapeseed oil
Others
C O M M O D I T Y M AR K E T S O U T L O O K
april 2016
October 2016. The quantity of stocks under government control is not known with certainty, nor is the
quality. As of mid-April, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that China is holding 109 million
metric tons, or 53 percent of global stocks. Chinas
stockpiling program is intended to be replaced by a
less distortionary program. Although details of the
new support mechanism are unknown, it appears that
China will follow the footsteps of agricultural policy
reforms introduced by the European Union (1992),
Mexico (1994), and the United States (1996). These
replaced earlier stockpiling and price support programs by direct income support mechanisms (often
referred to as decoupled support). Chinas stockpiling policies are not restricted to maize by they have
been implemented to other agricultural commodities
as well. For example, China accounts for more than
half of global stocks for cotton and rice and 40 percent of global wheat stocks (Figure 16). In the case of
cotton and wheat, Chinas stocks have been twice as
high compared to past decades average.
While policy changes such as the above have been isolated so far, and therefore have not affected global
commodity prices in a major way, they could play a
key role if implemented by several major exporters (or
numerous smaller suppliers).
Finally, the outlook assumes that biofuels will continue to be a source of demand for food commoditiesmainly maize for ethanol in the United States,
sugar cane for ethanol in Brazil, and edible oils for
biodiesel in Europe. Biofuels currently account for
3-4 percent of global arable land and 1.5 mb/d in
crude oil equivalent terms. Yet, the role of biofuels
will be less important in the long term as policymakers increasingly realize that the environmental and
energy independence benefits stemming from biofuels policies are not as strong as originally envisaged.
World
High-income countries
Manufacture
Agriculture
Developing countries
Sub-Saharan Africa
48
50
United States
Canada
EU-12
Past 10 years
2015/2016
60
109
42
57
40
96
China
Brazil
52
30
India
Turkey
0
5
10
15
20
Share of energy component in 2007, percent
20
Cotton
Rice
Maize
Wheat
29
30
april 2016
Beverages
Natural rubber prices increased 4 percent in the quarter with most of the gains realized in March (up 15
percent from February). The strengthening in rubber
prices reflects a seasonal decline in production by Malaysia and Thailand, stronger demand by China, and,
perhaps most importantly, the International Tripartite
Rubber Councils export quota scheme which began
in March and is expected to withhold 615,000 tons of
natural rubber from the world market over the next
six months. Despite the recent uptick, natural rubber
prices are expected to remain weak in 2016 and increase only marginally in 2017.
US$/kg
US$/kg
2.1
Robusta
(LHS)
1.9
25
4.5
20
4.0
15
1.7
3.5
1.5
1.3
Jan-15
Arabica
(RHS)
Apr-15
Jul-15
3.0
Oct-15
Jan-16
Source: Bloomberg.
Notes: Daily frequency. Last observation is April 22, 2016.
Apr-16
5.0
2.5
Rest of world
China
10
5
0
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
C O M M O D I T Y M AR K E T S O U T L O O K
april 2016
Fertilizers
Fertilizer prices plunged 12 percent in the first quarter
(Figure 19), down a fifth consecutive quarter, due to
weak import demand, high stocks, and ample supply.
Urea prices led the decline by dropping 17 percent,
down for a sixth straight quarter, on weak demand
and increasing capacity. Phosphate prices fell 13-14
percent, while potash prices declined 2 percent. Demand weakness stems from poor farmer profitability,
low crop prices, and depreciated currencies of key importing countriesalthough these reversed slightly
during the quarter on a weaker dollar. Supply surpluses continue to be impacted by falling costs and
cheaper feedstock prices (e.g., natural gas).
Urea prices dropped 17 percent, mainly due to oversupply amid weak seasonal demand, including the
impact of drought in south-east Asia. However, prices
rose in March on strong purchases in the United
States for spring application. Chinese demand continues to decline on lower crop prices and a desire to reduce unsustainably high application rates. The U.S.
Department of Agriculture reported sharply higher
planting intentions for rice and corn, which should
benefit urea consumption. Increases in new export capacity are expected this year, especially in Africa and
the Middle East. However, continued large increases
in the U.S. are expected to keep downward pressure
on prices, unless there are reductions in high-cost capacity. Chinas exports are also expected to increase.
Phosphate prices fell by 14 percent (TSP) and 13 percent (DAP) due to weak demand in Brazil and India
amid high stocks and weak currencies. Higher U.S.
planting intentions for cotton and cornthe latter
mainly at the expense of wheatcould increase phosphate consumption, as both consume more fertilizer
than wheat. Some producers have curtailed output
FIGURE 19 Fertilizer prices
US$/mt
1200
DAP
200
1000
Nitrogen
Phosphorus
Potassium
160
Potassium
chloride
800
120
600
80
400
200
0
Jan-07
40
Urea
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
31
32
april 2016
125
105
Base metals
85
Iron ore
45
25
Jan-07
3
2
65
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
China
OECD
Other non-OECD
0
Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13 Jan-16
Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
Note: Last observation is January 2016.
C O M M O D I T Y M AR K E T S O U T L O O K
are expected to fall and tighten the market. Key uncertainties are demand growth in China and future
mine capacity additions.
Lead prices rose 3 percent in the quarter and 9 percent
in February/March, but retreated in April due to weak
seasonal demand for replacement batteries. The lead
market is expected to tighten going forward from closure of large zinc/lead mines. With more than half of
refined supply coming from recycled batteries, a key
uncertainty is the supply of scrap material. Also uncertain is the pace of demand, given Chinas maturing
e-bike market and the growth of electric vehicles. One
positive development is the increase of stop-start vehicles, which require 25 percent more lead per
battery.
Aluminum prices rose 1 percent in the quarter. After
rising modestly in February, prices reverted to below
$1500/mt toward the quarter's end on continued
oversupply in China. The rest of the world, however,
remains in deficit due to significant capacity closures.
While demand growth has slowed in Chinas property
and manufacturing sectors, the outlook for global aluminum consumption is robust due to its many uses,
favorable properties, and substitution attractiveness.
Low prices have curtailed high-cost capacity in China,
but new capacity continues to come online there and
elsewhere. Further closure of high-cost supply is required to bring the market into balance and reduce
the large inventory overhang, but restart of idle capacity will continue to overhang the market.
april 2016
number of production cuts. Furthermore, new capacity will continue to come on-line in the next 2-3 years
from earlier investment. The market is expected to
remain in surplus, especially as Chinese demand
growth slows, with additional risks from cost-saving
measures and substitution of other materials.
Nickel prices dropped 10 percent and did not rise significantly during the quarter, as the market remains
oversupplied amid record high stocks and weak stainless steel demand (which consumes about two-thirds
of the worlds refined nickel). Other than Chinas
nickel pig iron sector, production cuts have been limited despite prices falling deep into the cost curve. A
group of Philippine producers agreed in March to cut
exports by up to 20 percent this year, but further cuts
are required to reduce excess supply.
Metals prices are projected to decline by 8 percent in
2016 due to slowing demand in emerging economies,
notably China, and increases in new production capacity. The largest decline is for nickel, which is expected to fall by 22 percent due to weak demand and
insufficient production cuts. Sizable declines are also
expected for iron ore (down 10 percent) and copper
(down 9 percent). Most other prices are expected to
fall as markets remain in surplus amid high stocks.
Markets are expected to tighten in the medium term
due to reduced investment in supply capacity, rising
global demand, and some specific factors, including
Indonesias ore export ban and closure of large zinc
mines due to exhaustion.
OECD
Other non-OECD
China
4,000
3,000
1,000
800
600
2,000
400
1,000
-4
-8
US$/ton
5,000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
0
Jan-07
200
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Source: Bloomberg.
Notes: Daily frequency. Last observation is April 21, 2016.
Jan-15
33
34
april 2016
Precious metals
Precious metals prices rose 6 percent in the first quarter on stronger investment demand and safe-haven
buying (Figure 15). Gold rose by 7 percent, while silver and platinum prices each increased 1 percent. All
prices rose strongly in February and March, aided in
part by U.S. dollar depreciation, declining real interest rates, and a more cautious U.S. Federal Reserve
position on future interest rate hikes.
Gold prices increased 7 percent in the first quarter,
and jumped 13 percent in second and third months,
averaging $1,245/toz in March. Investor sentiment
reversed due to the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate
hike deferral, a weaker dollar, increased macro risks,
and a rise in safe-haven demand. The adoption of
negative interest rates in a number of developed economies increased golds attractiveness by reducing its
holding costs. Conversely, rising interest rates typically have negative implications for gold prices, as investors seek yield-bearing assets.
Precious metals prices are projected to decline 2 percent in 2016, mainly due to lower investment demand. Platinum is expected to lead the decline, falling
10 percent on surplus supply. Silver prices are expected to fall 5 percent due to slowing physical demand, as the metal is more vulnerable than gold to
shifts in industrial production. Gold prices are projected to fall just 1 percent, reflecting strong investment demand in the first quarter, but is expected to
decline going forward on expectations of a rising dollar and tightening in U.S. monetary policy. Physical
demand is expected to remain robust in India and
China, while mine production continues to benefit
from cost reductions. Downside risks to the forecast
include stronger-than-expected monetary tightening
and dollar strength. Upside risks include weaker
global growth, financial stress in key economies,
heightened geopolitical events, and stronger demand
from consumers, central banks, and investors.
US$/toz
45
US$/toz
2,100
Platinum
(RHS)
35
Gold (RHS)
1,800
1,500
25
Asia
Europe
Africa
Oceania
200
150
1,200
5
Jan-07
100
Silver
(LHS)
15
Jan-09
Jan-11
900
Jan-13
Jan-15
600
50
0
Jan-95
Jan-00
Jan-05
Jan-10
Jan-15
Appendix A
Historical commodity prices
Price forecasts
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX A
37
Coal, Australia
Coal, Colombia
Coal, South Africa
Crude oil, average
Crude oil, Brent
Crude oil, Dubai
Crude oil, WTI
Natural gas, Index
Natural gas, Europe
Natural gas, US
Natural gas, Japan
Unit
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/bbl
$/bbl
$/bbl
$/bbl
2010=100
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
*
*
*
*
*
*
2014
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Jan
2016
Feb
2016
Mar
2016
70.1
65.9
72.3
96.2
98.9
96.7
93.1
111.7
10.05
4.37
16.04
57.5
52.5
57.0
50.8
52.4
51.2
48.7
73.3
7.26
2.61
10.40
61.2
57.3
62.1
51.6
53.9
52.2
48.6
85.4
8.60
2.87
14.26
59.0
54.3
60.7
60.5
62.1
61.4
57.8
74.2
7.33
2.73
9.18
57.5
50.4
54.3
48.8
50.0
49.9
46.4
72.2
6.86
2.75
9.23
52.3
48.0
51.1
42.2
43.4
41.2
42.0
61.4
6.26
2.11
8.94
50.9
42.7
51.6
32.7
34.4
30.6
33.2
52.3
4.82
1.98
7.95
49.8
43.0
49.9
29.8
30.8
27.0
31.5
58.4
5.35
2.27
7.85
50.7
41.4
51.5
31.0
33.2
29.5
30.4
52.5
4.90
1.96
8.00
52.1
43.8
53.2
37.3
39.1
35.2
37.8
46.1
4.20
1.70
8.00
3.06
4.42
2.22
2.72
3.54
2.58
2.05
3.14
3.53
1.94
2.71
2.96
2.42
2.74
2.92
3.89
2.12
2.43
3.16
1.82
2.31
3.07
3.54
1.98
2.79
3.00
2.56
2.80
3.25
3.36
1.87
2.85
2.83
2.78
2.95
3.30
3.31
1.79
2.76
2.85
2.52
2.91
2.98
3.31
1.65
2.36
2.82
1.89
2.38
2.95
3.20
1.65
2.50
2.84
2.07
2.58
2.92
3.26
1.63
2.31
2.79
1.78
2.37
3.07
3.47
1.67
2.28
2.82
1.81
2.21
1,280
854
1,709
1,296
1,313
821
1,121
528
909
492
1,110
735
1,558
1,248
1,337
623
909
395
757
390
1,147
760
1,712
1,333
1,371
683
1,046
432
774
411
1,115
737
1,523
1,290
1,346
664
957
391
774
394
1,067
708
1,472
1,193
1,332
574
802
398
736
385
1,109
737
1,524
1,175
1,298
570
831
358
743
372
1,273
855
1,465
1,158
1,277
631
1,032
328
749
370
1,155
763
1,476
1,175
1,274
566
894
333
727
367
1,216
813
1,472
1,150
1,271
640
988
326
758
369
1,448
990
1,448
1,150
1,286
686
1,213
325
761
375
138
193
423
382
425
407
207
285
245
194
170
386
373
386
352
205
204
206
189
174
417
397
416
363
237
239
223
201
168
385
372
388
351
215
216
205
200
169
374
362
376
337
190
183
196
187
167
368
359
365
356
176
180
201
183
160
379
370
373
362
174
191
190
185
161
369
361
366
365
174
193
192
187
160
384
374
377
360
174
187
188
176
159
384
375
375
360
174
191
190
1.04
0.93
4.95
2.43
6.39
0.78
17.25
0.43
0.53
0.37
0.90
0.96
4.42
2.53
5.22
0.68
14.36
0.36
0.55
0.30
0.92
0.98
4.76
2.51
5.60
0.70
15.84
0.37
0.54
0.32
0.92
0.97
4.47
2.55
5.38
0.62
15.65
0.36
0.54
0.29
0.90
0.95
4.55
2.55
5.07
0.65
15.43
0.36
0.54
0.27
0.88
0.93
3.91
2.50
4.82
0.73
10.50
0.36
0.56
0.32
0.91
1.03
3.72
2.47
4.51
0.69
10.83
0.36
0.57
0.31
0.86
1.04
3.50
2.48
4.54
0.69
10.44
0.35
0.57
0.31
0.93
1.05
3.77
2.47
4.51
0.69
11.02
0.36
0.56
0.29
0.94
1.01
3.88
2.46
4.48
0.68
11.02
0.36
0.58
0.34
Non-Energy
Agriculture
Beverages
Cocoa
Coffee, arabica
Coffee, robusta
Tea, average
Tea, Colombo
Tea, Kolkata
Tea, Mombasa
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
**
**
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
**
Grains
Barley
Maize
Rice, Thailand 5%
Rice, Thailand 25%
Rice, Thailand A1
Rice, Vietnam 5%
Sorghum
Wheat, US HRW
Wheat, US SRW
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
Other Food
Bananas, EU
Bananas, US
Meat, beef
Meat, chicken
Meat, sheep
Oranges
Shrimp
Sugar, EU
Sugar, US
Sugar, World
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
**
**
**
**
Food
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
38
APPENDIX A
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
2014
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Jan
2016
Feb
2016
Mar
2016
$/cum
$/cum
**
/sheets
$/cum
$/cum
**
$/mt
465
282
517
789
898
877
389
246
451
733
833
875
395
250
458
726
826
875
387
245
450
734
835
875
389
244
447
743
845
875
383
245
450
727
827
875
386
258
474
686
780
875
380
252
462
691
786
875
388
259
476
686
780
875
389
264
484
681
775
875
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
**
**
1.83
1.96
1.71
1.55
1.56
1.37
1.52
1.73
1.42
1.59
1.79
1.52
1.56
1.46
1.34
1.53
1.26
1.20
1.48
1.31
1.15
1.52
1.22
1.08
1.47
1.26
1.09
1.44
1.45
1.28
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
**
**
**
**
**
472
110
297
388
316
459
117
303
385
273
483
115
305
400
296
469
115
307
380
277
464
117
303
380
268
419
123
297
380
251
367
116
283
328
209
385
118
290
380
214
355
115
282
329
209
360
115
277
275
203
$/mt
$/mt
$/dmt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
1,867
6,863
96.9
2,095
16,893
21,899
2,161
1,665
5,510
55.8
1,788
11,863
16,067
1,932
1,802
5,833
63.0
1,810
14,393
18,370
2,080
1,770
6,057
58.3
1,942
13,056
15,590
2,192
1,592
5,267
55.0
1,717
10,579
15,230
1,843
1,494
4,885
47.0
1,682
9,423
15,077
1,612
1,514
4,675
48.3
1,738
8,508
15,439
1,677
1,481
4,472
42.0
1,646
8,507
13,808
1,520
1,531
4,599
47.0
1,766
8,299
15,610
1,710
1,531
4,954
56.0
1,802
8,717
16,898
1,802
$/toz
$/toz
$/toz
***
***
***
1,266
1,384
19.07
1,161
1,053
15.72
1,219
1,193
16.75
1,193
1,127
16.42
1,124
986
14.91
1,107
907
14.80
1,181
914
14.91
1,098
855
14.11
1,200
919
15.17
1,245
968
15.47
118.3
97.0
102.7
101.8
107.4
109.0
103.9
108.4
91.9
104.9
77.8
100.5
84.8
89.0
101.1
64.9
82.4
89.3
93.5
90.9
85.2
88.8
100.3
83.2
96.1
69.2
95.4
66.9
73.6
90.6
67.3
86.7
92.9
93.4
96.5
91.3
95.4
104.3
84.0
95.7
71.1
99.3
72.7
79.5
95.6
75.5
84.8
90.2
93.6
91.6
86.7
89.9
99.7
85.1
96.2
73.1
95.6
72.4
79.9
93.5
62.7
80.6
88.0
94.0
88.8
83.1
85.7
99.2
83.1
96.9
67.9
94.4
63.9
70.0
87.4
54.2
77.6
85.9
93.1
86.6
79.6
84.1
98.0
80.7
95.4
64.5
92.3
58.8
65.0
86.1
43.0
76.2
84.7
86.2
86.7
79.9
84.3
97.6
79.2
92.2
65.0
81.6
58.0
63.8
90.9
40.5
74.6
83.5
85.7
85.1
77.3
84.3
96.1
78.3
92.1
63.2
86.0
55.2
61.4
84.7
41.2
75.8
84.4
84.6
86.5
80.0
84.3
97.1
79.2
92.2
64.8
81.5
57.7
63.6
92.3
47.4
78.0
86.2
88.2
88.3
82.5
84.4
99.6
80.1
92.1
67.0
77.2
61.2
66.5
95.6
Unit
Raw Materials
Timber
Logs, Africa
Logs, S.E. Asia
Plywood
Sawnwood, Africa
Sawnwood, S.E. Asia
Woodpulp
Fertilizers
DAP
Phosphate rock
Potassium chloride
TSP
Urea, E. Europe
Precious Metals
Gold
Platinum
Silver
****
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX A
Coal, Australia
Crude oil, avg, spot
Natural gas, Europe
Natural gas, US
Natural gas, Japan
Unit
Forecasts
2018
2019
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2020
2025
84.6
104.1
11.79
3.73
15.96
70.1
96.2
10.05
4.37
16.04
57.5
50.8
7.26
2.61
10.40
50.0
41.0
4.50
2.50
8.00
51.0
50.0
4.80
3.00
8.20
52.1
53.3
5.11
3.50
8.41
53.1
56.7
5.45
3.68
8.62
54.2
60.4
5.81
3.88
8.83
60.0
82.6
8.00
5.00
10.00
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
2.44
3.08
2.08
2.86
3.06
4.42
2.22
2.72
3.14
3.53
1.94
2.71
3.10
3.30
1.70
2.60
3.01
3.32
1.72
2.65
2.93
3.34
1.74
2.70
2.85
3.37
1.76
2.76
2.77
3.39
1.79
2.81
2.40
3.50
1.90
3.10
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
941
1,773
857
545
1,057
538
1,280
1,313
821
528
909
492
1,110
1,337
623
395
757
390
1,300
1,300
630
340
775
390
1,263
1,339
647
353
797
403
1,226
1,380
664
367
820
416
1,191
1,422
682
381
844
429
1,157
1,465
701
396
868
443
1,000
1,700
800
480
1,000
520
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
202
259
506
312
138
193
423
285
194
170
386
204
185
165
375
180
187
170
379
188
188
176
383
197
190
182
386
206
192
188
390
216
200
220
410
270
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
0.92
4.07
2.29
0.97
13.84
0.39
0.93
4.95
2.43
0.78
17.25
0.37
0.96
4.42
2.53
0.68
14.36
0.30
1.00
3.80
2.50
0.70
11.00
0.32
0.99
3.84
2.46
0.72
11.21
0.33
0.98
3.89
2.43
0.75
11.42
0.33
0.97
3.93
2.40
0.78
11.63
0.34
0.96
3.97
2.36
0.80
11.85
0.35
0.92
4.20
2.20
0.95
13.00
0.38
464
305
853
465
282
898
389
246
833
390
250
800
401
259
820
412
268
841
424
277
862
436
287
883
500
340
1,000
$/kg
$/kg
$/mt
1.99
2.79
4,589
1.83
1.96
4,991
1.55
1.56
4,908
1.55
1.35
5,000
1.61
1.43
4,942
1.68
1.52
4,884
1.74
1.61
4,827
1.81
1.71
4,771
2.20
2.30
4,500
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
445
148
379
382
340
472
110
297
388
316
459
117
303
385
273
360
120
285
310
220
368
119
288
315
226
376
118
290
320
232
385
117
293
326
238
394
115
296
331
245
440
110
310
360
280
$/mt
$/mt
$/dmt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
1,847
7,332
135.4
2,140
15,032
22,283
1,910
1,867
6,863
96.9
2,095
16,893
21,899
2,161
1,665
5,510
55.8
1,788
11,863
16,067
1,932
1,600
5,000
50.0
1,775
9,200
15,000
1,800
1,649
5,190
51.5
1,827
10,029
15,652
1,858
1,700
5,388
53.0
1,880
10,933
16,333
1,919
1,752
5,593
54.6
1,935
11,918
17,043
1,981
1,806
5,807
56.2
1,992
12,992
17,783
2,046
2,100
7,000
65.0
2,300
20,000
22,000
2,400
$/toz
$/toz
$/toz
1,411
23.85
1,487
1,266
19.07
1,384
1,161
15.72
1,053
1,150
15.00
950
1,132
15.11
999
1,115
15.22
1,051
1,098
15.33
1,106
1,081
15.44
1,164
1,000
16.00
1,500
$/mt
$/bbl
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
Non-Energy
Agriculture
Beverages
Cocoa
Coffee, Arabica
Coffee, robusta
Tea, average
Food
Raw Materials
Timber
Logs, Africa
Logs, S.E. Asia
Sawnwood, S.E. Asia
Other Raw Materials
Cotton A
Rubber, RSS3
Tobacco
Fertilizers
DAP
Phosphate rock
Potassium chloride
TSP
Urea, E. Europe
Aluminum
Copper
Iron ore
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
Precious Metals
Gold
Silver
Platinum
$/cum
$/cum
$/cum
39
40
APPENDIX A
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Unit
Forecasts
2018
2019
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
79.7
98.1
11.11
3.52
15.04
66.2
90.9
9.49
4.13
15.15
54.4
48.0
6.87
2.47
9.85
46.5
38.1
4.18
2.32
7.43
46.6
45.7
4.38
2.74
7.50
46.8
47.9
4.60
3.15
7.56
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
2.30
2.90
1.96
2.70
2.89
4.18
2.09
2.57
2.97
3.34
1.84
2.56
2.88
3.07
1.58
2.42
2.75
3.04
1.57
2.42
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
887
1,672
808
514
996
508
1,209
1,240
776
499
859
464
1,050
1,265
589
374
716
370
1,208
1,208
585
316
720
362
Grains
Barley
Maize
Rice, Thailand, 5%
Wheat, US, HRW
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
191
245
477
294
130
182
399
269
184
161
365
194
Other Food
Bananas, EU
Meat, beef
Meat, chicken
Oranges
Shrimp
Sugar, World
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
$/kg
0.87
3.84
2.16
0.91
13.05
0.37
0.88
4.67
2.29
0.74
16.29
0.35
437
288
804
$/kg
$/kg
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
Energy
Coal, Australia
Crude oil, avg, spot
Natural gas, Europe
Natural gas, US
Natural gas, Japan
2020
2025
47.0
50.2
4.83
3.26
7.63
47.3
52.6
5.06
3.38
7.70
48.1
66.3
6.42
4.01
8.02
2.63
3.01
1.57
2.43
2.52
2.98
1.56
2.44
2.41
2.95
1.56
2.45
1.92
2.81
1.52
2.49
1,154
1,224
591
323
729
368
1,103
1,241
598
330
738
374
1,055
1,259
604
338
747
380
1,008
1,276
611
345
756
386
802
1,363
642
385
802
417
172
153
348
167
171
156
346
172
169
158
344
177
168
161
342
182
167
163
340
188
160
176
329
217
0.91
4.19
2.39
0.64
13.59
0.28
0.93
3.53
2.32
0.65
10.22
0.30
0.91
3.51
2.25
0.66
10.24
0.30
0.88
3.49
2.19
0.67
10.27
0.30
0.86
3.48
2.12
0.69
10.30
0.30
0.84
3.46
2.06
0.70
10.32
0.30
0.74
3.37
1.76
0.76
10.43
0.30
439
266
848
368
233
789
362
232
743
366
236
750
371
241
756
375
245
763
380
250
770
401
273
802
1.88
2.63
4,327
1.73
1.85
4,714
1.47
1.48
4,646
1.44
1.25
4,645
1.47
1.31
4,517
1.51
1.37
4,393
1.54
1.43
4,274
1.58
1.49
4,158
1.76
1.84
3,609
419
140
357
360
321
446
104
281
367
299
434
111
287
364
258
334
111
265
288
204
336
109
263
288
207
339
106
261
288
209
341
103
260
288
211
343
101
258
289
213
353
88
249
289
225
$/mt
$/mt
$/dmt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
$/mt
1,741
6,913
127.6
2,018
14,173
21,010
1,801
1,764
6,482
91.6
1,979
15,955
20,683
2,041
1,576
5,216
52.8
1,692
11,228
15,207
1,828
1,486
4,645
46.5
1,649
8,547
13,936
1,672
1,507
4,744
47.0
1,670
9,166
14,305
1,699
1,529
4,847
47.7
1,691
9,834
14,691
1,726
1,551
4,952
48.3
1,713
10,552
15,089
1,754
1,573
5,060
49.0
1,736
11,322
15,497
1,783
1,684
5,614
52.1
1,845
16,041
17,645
1,925
$/toz
$/toz
$/toz
1,331
22.49
1,402
1,195
18.01
1,307
1,099
14.88
997
1,068
13.94
883
1,035
13.81
913
1,003
13.69
946
972
13.57
979
942
13.45
1,014
802
12.83
1,203
$/mt
$/bbl
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
Non-Energy
Agriculture
Beverages
Cocoa
Coffee, Arabica
Coffee, robusta
Tea, avgerage
Food
Raw Materials
Timber
Logs, Africa
Logs, S.E. Asia
Sawnwood, S.E. Asia
Other Raw Materials
Cotton A
Rubber, RSS3
Tobacco
Fertilizers
DAP
Phosphate rock
Potassium chloride
TSP
Urea, E. Europe
Aluminum
Copper
Iron ore
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
Precious Metals
Gold
Silver
Platinum
$/cum
$/cum
$/cum
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX A
41
Unit
Energy
Non-energy commodities
Agriculture
Beverages
Food
Oils and meals
Grains
Other food
Raw materials
Timber
Other Raw Materials
Fertilizers
Metals and minerals *
Base Metals **
Precious Metals
2014
2015
2016
2017
127.4
101.7
106.3
83.3
115.6
115.9
128.2
103.9
95.4
102.6
87.6
113.7
90.8
90.3
115.1
118.3
97.0
102.7
101.8
107.4
109.0
103.9
108.4
91.9
104.9
77.8
100.5
84.8
89.0
101.1
64.9
82.4
89.3
93.5
90.9
85.2
88.8
100.3
83.2
96.1
69.2
95.4
66.9
73.6
90.6
52.4
78.2
86.2
89.2
87.8
82.3
84.1
98.3
80.8
93.3
67.1
82.8
61.4
67.7
89.1
62.9
80.0
87.8
88.8
89.6
84.7
86.5
98.8
82.7
95.9
68.4
84.0
63.7
70.3
88.1
67.2
81.9
89.4
88.4
91.5
87.3
88.9
99.3
84.8
98.5
69.8
85.2
66.1
73.0
87.2
Energy
Non-energy commodities
Agriculture
Beverages
Food
Oils and meals
Grains
Other food
Raw materials
Timber
Other Raw Materials
Fertilizers
Metals and minerals *
Base Metals **
Precious Metals
Forecasts
2018
2019
2013
2020
2025
71.4
83.8
91.1
88.1
93.4
89.9
91.5
99.9
86.9
101.1
71.3
86.4
68.6
75.9
86.4
75.9
85.8
92.9
87.8
95.5
92.6
94.1
100.5
89.1
103.9
73.0
87.6
71.2
78.8
85.5
102.6
97.3
102.9
86.8
106.8
107.7
108.8
103.8
101.7
118.8
82.9
94.4
86.0
95.6
81.6
120.1
95.9
100.2
78.5
109.0
109.3
120.9
98.0
90.0
96.7
82.6
107.2
85.6
85.2
108.5
111.7
91.6
97.0
96.1
101.4
103.0
98.1
102.3
86.8
99.0
73.5
94.9
80.1
84.1
95.5
61.4
78.0
84.5
88.5
86.0
80.6
84.0
94.9
78.8
90.9
65.5
90.3
63.4
69.7
85.8
48.7
72.7
80.1
82.9
81.5
76.4
78.1
91.4
75.1
86.7
62.3
77.0
57.1
62.9
82.8
57.5
73.1
80.2
81.2
81.9
77.4
79.0
90.3
75.6
87.6
62.5
76.8
58.2
64.3
80.6
60.5
73.7
80.4
79.5
82.3
78.5
80.0
89.4
76.3
88.6
62.8
76.6
59.5
65.7
78.5
63.2
74.2
80.6
78.0
82.7
79.6
81.0
88.4
76.9
89.6
63.2
76.5
60.7
67.2
76.5
66.1
74.8
80.9
76.5
83.2
80.7
82.0
87.5
77.7
90.5
63.6
76.4
62.0
68.7
74.5
82.3
78.0
82.5
69.6
85.7
86.4
87.3
83.2
81.6
95.3
66.5
75.7
69.0
76.7
65.4
106.1
-1.4
105.4
1.5
105.9
-0.2
106.9
1.3
105.7
-0.2
108.5
1.6
107.6
1.9
110.7
2.0
109.4
1.7
113.0
2.0
111.2
1.6
115.3
2.0
112.9
1.6
117.6
2.0
114.8
1.6
120.0
2.0
124.7
1.7
132.6
2.0
Contents
Appendix B
Commodity Balances
Aluminum 45
Nickel 58
Coal 46
Nitrogen Fertilizers
59
Cocoa 47
60
Coffee 48
Copper 49
Cotton 50
Crude oil 51
Rice 62
Silver 63
Gold 52
Soybeans 64
Sugar 65
Tin 66
Lead 54
Wheat 67
Maize 55
Natural gas 56
Natural rubber
57
Zinc 69
43
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
45
Aluminum
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
Constant 2010
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
Jan-04
Nominal
1,000
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1980
1990
27,179
1,700
4,152
1,785
920
13,911
12,064
n/a
n/a
3,286
n/a
4,903
0
n/a
93,326
40,697
3,655
9,876
5,277
398
16,150
10,937
n/a
n/a
2,496
n/a
3,267
786
n/a
114,835
358
n/a
1,075
35
185
304
4,654
662
126
0
261
75
87
n/a
16,036
854
n/a
1,567
174
433
1,233
4,048
867
212
0
931
88
157
n/a
19,362
550
4,454
1,272
1,639
234
68
45
0
296
6,754
15,312
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
500
1970
861
4,330
1,379
2,414
433
369
152
0
341
8,947
19,227
2000
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
53,801
7,900
14,379
7,562
123
17,992
11,127
5,000
3,729
1,991
0
3,610
4,361
7,315
138,889
59,959
17,408
22,365
12,385
5
19,237
14,118
6,409
4,815
2,495
0
4,757
5,815
7,038
176,807
68,535
36,837
32,028
12,662
124
17,633
8,540
5,475
5,310
1,902
0
3,097
3,126
33,532
228,802
76,282
44,052
34,988
15,320
122
19,974
9,339
5,166
5,170
1,815
760
2,873
2,285
39,538
257,685
81,119
50,339
33,849
20,421
220
18,763
9,435
5,322
5,193
1,844
1,044
2,706
2,341
64,212
296,808
78,633
65,000
35,410
20,688
963
19,178
9,677
5,589
4,515
1,876
1,965
2,708
2,316
11,775
260,291
80,910
65,000
31,231
26,383
22,867
20,414
9,629
6,580
4,683
2,100
1,964
1,871
1,770
10,080
285,483
2,647
3,258
2,373
536
647
1,761
3,668
1,026
509
0
1,271
226
683
5,699
24,304
7,759
3,647
2,894
722
942
1,903
2,480
1,376
708
0
1,498
272
851
6,788
31,841
16,244
3,947
2,963
1,400
1,610
1,928
1,728
1,090
851
0
1,536
826
806
6,630
41,559
20,251
4,024
2,781
1,861
1,714
1,864
2,070
1,111
890
0
1,436
803
665
6,766
46,236
23,153
3,724
2,967
1,848
1,597
1,778
1,948
1,155
913
187
1,304
736
822
6,569
48,701
27,517
3,488
2,858
2,296
1,767
1,704
1,710
1,331
931
665
962
749
745
6,526
53,249
31,410
3,524
2,880
2,464
1,886
1,645
1,587
1,241
961
835
773
756
695
6,686
57,342
3,352
6,161
1,632
2,223
601
823
211
34
514
9,456
25,007
7,072
6,114
1,758
2,276
958
1,201
390
85
759
11,022
31,636
15,854
4,242
1,912
2,025
1,475
1,255
703
650
985
11,317
40,419
20,224
4,875
2,086
1,982
1,690
1,278
925
835
1,021
11,013
45,929
21,955
4,632
2,083
1,772
1,559
1,241
867
835
988
10,563
46,495
27,204
5,250
2,289
2,034
1,523
1,282
915
835
1,027
10,945
53,305
31,068
5,325
2,126
1,779
1,476
1,366
952
835
801
11,353
57,080
46
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Coal
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
150
200
120
150
90
100
Constant 2010
60
50
30
Nominal
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1990
1990
2000
2010
2020
311
463
0
65
63
n/a
75
3
n/a
98
149
23
n/a
3
7
43
76
2
3
5
0
8
3
n/a
1,855
540
566
7
109
92
178
100
14
68
94
125
40
84
3
12
37
55
3
7
5
4
9
2
111
2,265
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
707
570
47
167
132
117
127
25
38
71
61
39
42
7
12
25
19
5
8
4
5
6
3
71
2,310
1,241
580
94
206
162
140
138
38
44
69
57
35
41
19
11
24
12
6
9
4
6
7
2
72
3,018
1,665
551
169
241
218
151
144
48
54
55
46
35
40
25
18
21
11
7
7
5
5
6
2
79
3,604
1,853
556
217
233
216
159
143
56
56
57
47
35
44
26
18
22
11
9
8
6
6
7
2
83
3,869
1,872
518
237
250
229
170
147
58
59
59
48
36
45
24
17
21
10
7
8
6
5
6
3
79
3,913
1,894
501
276
268
229
169
145
56
58
58
45
37
44
23
15
18
8
8
7
5
5
5
3
86
3,961
1,845
508
282
281
244
171
148
58
55
55
44
37
32
23
18
17
7
7
6
5
5
4
3
80
3,933
1,318
574
184
121
80
95
55
81
24
56
54
38
22
27
38
354
3,122
1,741
525
260
124
93
91
76
77
39
56
51
40
31
32
38
337
3,611
1,896
495
270
118
90
94
84
78
47
56
50
41
34
34
41
348
3,777
1,922
438
302
124
88
98
81
80
53
54
47
41
36
37
43
352
3,799
1,961
455
324
129
89
91
82
82
58
56
45
41
32
36
41
347
3,867
1,962
453
360
127
89
85
85
77
61
53
44
41
36
35
33
341
3,882
1980
1981
China
United States
Indonesia
Australia
India
Russian Federation
South Africa
Colombia
Kazakhstan
Poland
Germany
Canada
Ukraine
Vietnam
Turkey
Czech Republic
United Kingdom
Mexico
Greece
Bulgaria
Thailand
Romania
Brazil
Others
World
0
1970
303
401
63
64
51
n/a
15
144
0
91
27
4
7
n/a
n/a
n/a
1,834
525
483
95
76
67
182
24
132
3
80
37
11
16
40
75
386
2,233
700
569
144
99
75
106
43
85
13
58
48
29
23
23
39
316
2,369
46
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Cocoa
Monthly Prices (US$/kg)
6
Constant 2010
1
Jan-04
0
1970
Nominal
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1970/71
1980/81
179.6
406.0
1.7
71.6
112.0
182.4
304.8
2.0
34.6
21.0
212.3
1,528.0
34.7
116.4
150.7
278.7
1.2
48.0
801.3
1,431.0
138.0
347.6
46.5
215.5
74.6
0.6
296.2
1,118.9
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
116.2
269.0
154.7
0.9
18.4
41.7
33.8
41.2
1.2
2.6
459.7
1,139.4
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
417.2
258.0
12.4
86.7
117.1
353.0
155.9
7.0
34.5
38.3
213.9
1,694.0
804.4
293.4
150.0
111.1
115.0
368.1
160.0
11.0
42.0
52.0
399.8
2,506.8
1,212.4
395.0
385.0
88.9
133.0
162.8
180.0
16.9
44.9
37.1
195.5
2,851.5
1,511.3
1,024.6
440.0
160.5
228.5
199.8
240.0
54.4
54.3
35.2
360.6
4,309.0
1,449.0
835.5
410.0
191.5
225.0
185.3
238.0
69.8
68.0
48.4
222.9
3,943.4
1,746.2
896.9
375.0
234.0
211.0
228.2
248.0
80.2
70.0
48.8
233.4
4,371.6
1,795.9
740.3
325.0
250.0
232.3
230.0
195.0
83.0
82.0
51.0
245.1
4,229.6
1,690.0
840.0
300.0
230.0
230.0
210.0
200.0
85.0
72.0
53.0
244.1
4,154.1
60.0
139.6
180.0
185.6
10.0
27.0
963.8
1,566.0
118.1
267.7
294.2
267.9
32.0
29.9
1,314.9
2,324.7
285.0
451.9
226.6
444.7
83.0
70.0
1,479.9
3,041.1
360.9
540.0
438.5
401.3
190.0
229.5
1,777.8
3,938.1
471.1
545.0
402.0
429.2
290.0
225.1
1,810.3
4,172.7
519.4
530.0
412.0
446.0
340.0
234.2
1,840.0
4,321.6
558.8
508.0
415.0
398.0
335.0
233.7
1,698.0
4,146.5
575.0
510.0
430.0
395.0
370.0
235.0
1,710.3
4,225.3
405.6
181.8
19.0
75.9
96.0
6.3
315.3
1,099.8
688.1
245.2
55.9
142.0
96.3
113.4
396.2
1,737.1
903.4
306.8
57.2
149.4
101.6
326.5
141.9
1,986.7
1,079.3
694.4
135.7
219.0
204.1
275.2
388.3
2,995.9
1,045.2
600.6
165.4
182.9
186.4
173.6
288.7
2,642.9
1,191.8
709.2
196.8
191.6
160.0
99.0
371.9
2,920.2
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
167.0
246.3
187.4
n/a
28.0
58.8
36.9
31.7
2.0
21.8
418.2
1,198.1
267.0
319.7
299.9
0.9
49.7
74.1
45.4
56.2
5.9
126.6
516.0
1,761.4
549.0
354.7
228.2
109.6
101.3
157.2
48.8
72.2
39.1
67.0
682.3
2,409.5
805.5
472.0
433.8
320.4
193.8
149.2
87.9
85.7
71.1
87.8
649.4
3,356.6
671.9
427.9
272.6
305.4
224.6
114.0
98.9
87.7
78.3
79.9
635.0
2,996.2
641.4
475.2
318.2
315.4
257.9
141.3
107.5
89.5
87.8
80.7
656.1
3,171.0
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
47
48
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Coffee
Monthly Prices (US$/kg)
12
Arabica
Arabica
Robusta
Robusta
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1970/71
1990
2000
2010
2020
1980/81
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
21,500
77
13,500
5,365
3,264
1,265
1,977
2,133
3,862
2,702
1,170
971
88
2,140
6,090
1,060
201
880
1,568
16,361
86,174
31,000
1,200
14,500
7,480
3,500
1,685
2,970
2,700
4,550
3,282
1,170
460
75
2,565
3,300
763
785
964
1,455
15,777
100,181
34,100
15,333
10,500
6,495
2,768
2,821
5,020
3,097
4,800
4,564
2,824
1,610
700
2,502
5,100
809
1,692
1,041
864
10,577
117,217
54,500
19,415
8,525
9,325
6,125
3,975
5,035
3,212
4,000
3,960
4,100
1,740
1,100
1,575
1,600
1,050
850
865
710
8,755
140,417
57,600
26,500
9,927
10,500
6,325
4,725
5,303
3,600
4,650
4,010
4,300
1,925
1,400
1,675
1,750
1,180
850
825
660
7,053
154,758
57,200
29,833
12,075
9,500
6,345
4,400
5,075
3,850
3,950
3,515
4,250
2,000
1,500
1,450
1,675
800
850
855
850
5,698
155,671
54,300
27,400
13,300
8,800
6,475
5,000
5,440
3,550
3,300
3,365
2,900
2,100
1,750
1,400
1,400
800
900
810
780
5,765
149,535
49,400
29,300
13,400
10,605
6,500
5,900
5,300
3,800
3,400
3,315
3,000
2,200
1,800
1,350
1,325
900
900
850
840
6,037
150,122
n/a
n/a
7,975
n/a
n/a
432
n/a
1,228
1,600
35
n/a
n/a
1,500
n/a
n/a
118
n/a
1,825
887
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
9,000
n/a
n/a
810
n/a
1,295
1,900
100
n/a
n/a
1,400
n/a
n/a
160
n/a
1,615
1,224
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
13,100
n/a
n/a
900
n/a
1,335
1,667
417
n/a
n/a
978
n/a
n/a
500
n/a
1,530
959
n/a
n/a
41,350
22,383
19,420
7,015
4,245
2,825
4,355
1,690
2,860
1,337
1,910
1,815
2,470
965
1,445
683
1,570
1,120
1,231
13,698
134,387
43,275
23,027
20,110
7,505
4,230
4,405
4,130
2,670
3,055
1,825
1,825
1,945
2,030
1,560
1,660
1,130
1,500
1,200
1,100
14,089
142,271
41,475
23,811
20,210
7,750
4,605
3,630
4,230
2,790
3,120
2,008
2,160
2,300
2,331
1,705
1,615
1,260
1,410
1,300
1,200
13,843
142,753
43,630
23,577
20,330
7,825
4,505
4,265
4,050
3,050
2,985
2,217
2,305
2,155
1,776
1,940
1,775
1,700
1,445
1,515
1,200
13,276
145,521
43,850
24,067
20,330
8,125
4,800
4,600
4,075
3,090
2,972
2,600
2,350
2,280
2,173
1,925
1,800
1,550
1,450
1,350
1,250
13,630
148,267
11,000
56
8,000
2,330
2,589
545
1,914
2,667
3,200
1,965
1,114
641
66
1,295
3,996
909
19
401
999
15,496
59,202
1980
0
1970
n/a
n/a
8,890
n/a
n/a
496
n/a
888
1,170
31
n/a
n/a
1,512
n/a
n/a
93
n/a
1,349
665
n/a
n/a
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
49
Copper
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
10,000
10,000
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
Constant 2010
Nominal
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1980
1990
1,068
367
177
1,181
460
244
596
n/a
716
59
n/a
175
343
n/a
7,864
1,588
318
296
1,587
356
327
496
n/a
794
169
n/a
291
370
n/a
8,997
314
811
1,014
1,686
n/a
23
144
607
425
79
357
182
154
n/a
9,390
562
1,192
1,008
2,017
n/a
39
173
479
533
187
346
274
171
n/a
10,809
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0
1970
286
1,868
870
1,158
85
388
77
33
85
n/a
9,385
512
2,150
1,028
1,577
324
475
135
103
265
n/a
10,780
2000
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
4,602
553
549
1,440
33
832
249
580
634
1,006
433
365
454
1,476
13,207
5,321
1,010
639
1,157
98
930
441
805
595
1,064
436
391
523
1,619
15,029
5,419
1,247
1,180
1,129
378
870
732
703
522
871
404
270
425
1,985
16,135
5,434
1,299
1,552
1,196
608
914
782
720
580
398
491
500
427
2,088
16,989
5,776
1,376
1,681
1,279
817
999
839
720
632
494
538
480
429
2,251
18,311
5,750
1,380
1,632
1,383
996
965
756
720
696
366
501
514
421
2,399
18,478
5,764
1,705
1,669
1,373
1,039
957
754
720
697
580
566
540
426
2,517
19,308
1,312
2,669
1,437
1,802
824
265
29
226
709
471
486
484
316
3,731
14,761
2,566
2,824
1,395
1,257
968
518
3
465
639
527
560
471
308
4,135
16,635
4,540
3,244
1,549
1,093
900
647
254
767
585
556
547
424
347
3,640
19,094
5,879
2,902
1,516
1,001
880
689
453
700
534
590
566
461
408
3,627
20,207
6,667
2,755
1,468
1,040
874
619
643
629
680
604
565
480
351
3,737
21,112
7,959
2,729
1,554
1,095
874
764
742
710
673
604
577
511
428
3,707
22,927
7,964
2,688
1,483
1,135
874
792
775
710
678
604
574
489
426
3,905
23,097
1,869
2,979
1,309
1,351
862
674
246
248
628
4,929
15,096
3,621
2,264
1,115
1,229
868
680
397
319
638
5,516
16,649
7,385
1,760
1,312
1,060
856
619
514
369
532
4,932
19,340
8,896
1,758
1,114
985
721
570
456
429
432
4,772
20,133
9,830
1,826
1,136
996
722
552
423
453
437
4,626
21,002
11,303
1,767
1,162
1,072
759
622
434
453
465
4,774
22,811
11,451
1,792
1,219
993
705
611
491
475
471
4,529
22,736
50
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Cotton
Monthly Prices (US$/kg)
0
1970
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1970/71 1980/81
Production (thousand metric tons)
909
1,995
2,219
543
594
n/a
19
400
8
n/a
110
84
n/a
11,740
412
376
321
915
24
55
2,502
4,605
848
34
220
4
n/a
9
n/a
3,875
Nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
India
China
United States
Pakistan
Brazil
Uzbekistan
Australia
Turkey
Burkina Faso
Turkmenistan
Greece
Argentina
Others
World
Constant 2010
33
0
108
1
36
46
1
121
3,741
4,086
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
1,322
2,707
2,422
714
623
1,671
99
500
23
n/a
115
84
n/a
13,831
1,989
4,508
3,376
1,638
717
1,593
433
655
77
437
213
258
3,141
18,951
2,380
4,505
3,742
1,816
939
975
804
880
116
187
421
167
2,688
19,524
5,865
6,400
3,942
1,948
1,960
910
898
611
141
380
180
295
1,896
25,425
6,770
6,929
2,811
2,076
1,734
940
890
760
274
329
296
302
2,190
26,300
6,630
6,444
3,549
2,300
1,509
940
470
847
285
327
274
302
2,459
26,337
6,150
5,166
2,817
1,611
1,500
855
560
682
271
300
218
240
2,091
22,461
6,447
4,572
3,162
2,074
1,446
884
696
672
287
286
258
235
2,056
23,075
476
491
391
581
112
131
2,969
5,151
1,589
539
231
510
150
313
3,428
6,761
3,755
922
755
1,306
283
608
2,984
10,614
2,087
1,889
1,400
566
453
316
2,775
9,486
12,088
1,714
1,230
651
440
416
2,986
19,523
12,447
2,257
1,128
1,078
655
742
3,498
21,806
12,021
2,078
1,030
816
798
496
3,298
20,537
10,854
2,094
1,030
925
798
562
3,221
19,484
1,290
140
21
53
n/a
22
n/a
4,414
1,697
255
167
329
n/a
73
n/a
5,069
1,467
24
68
849
750
112
2,535
5,805
3,130
1,085
435
545
600
136
1,798
7,729
2,293
2,014
485
1,037
650
274
2,133
8,886
2,330
1,048
785
560
605
188
1,957
7,473
2,199
1,013
825
545
526
275
1,990
7,373
2,267
1,085
702
608
524
303
2,189
7,678
40
45
773
0
106
86
1
332
3,172
4,555
31
80
480
46
324
354
0
447
3,458
5,220
84
248
52
381
570
342
101
304
3,682
5,764
350
843
2,609
729
471
383
314
230
1,797
7,726
691
987
3,075
876
651
337
402
280
1,437
8,735
844
965
1,625
773
734
362
385
266
1,518
7,473
1,098
1,078
1,078
755
782
312
418
270
1,582
7,373
1,356
1,131
1,015
896
769
315
291
284
1,621
7,678
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
51
Crude oil
Monthly Prices (US$/bbl)
150
150
120
120
90
90
60
60
30
30
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
1970
1980
10,170
10,270
n/a
1,764
2,122
1,745
1,479
2,658
1,757
2,129
2,228
2,059
188
476
528
150
n/a
1,139
131
285
193
1,577
1,676
n/a
62,959
Nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
United States
Saudi Arabia
Russian Federation
Canada
China
United Arab Emirates
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Iraq
Kuwait
Mexico
Venezuela, RB
Nigeria
Brazil
Qatar
Norway
Angola
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Colombia
Oman
India
Indonesia
United Kingdom
Others
World
Constant 2010
14,710
556
3,876
391
523
n/a
408
162
2,774
1,472
222
412
138
1,867
2,030
n/a
45,348
17,062
1,690
4,905
644
1,163
n/a
607
476
3,020
1,898
591
1,048
396
2,221
1,647
n/a
61,233
1990
2000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
8,914
7,105
10,342
1,968
2,778
2,283
3,270
2,149
964
2,941
2,244
1,870
650
434
1,716
475
571
1,347
446
695
715
1,539
1,933
8,037
65,385
7,732
9,470
6,583
2,703
3,257
2,660
3,852
2,613
2,244
3,456
3,097
2,159
1,271
853
3,346
746
740
1,549
687
961
726
1,456
2,714
10,051
74,925
7,556
10,075
10,366
3,332
4,077
2,895
4,352
2,490
2,562
2,959
2,838
2,509
2,137
1,655
2,136
1,863
1,672
1,689
786
865
882
1,003
1,361
11,128
83,190
7,861
11,144
10,516
3,515
4,074
3,325
4,373
2,801
2,915
2,940
2,734
2,450
2,193
1,850
2,040
1,726
1,684
1,642
915
885
916
952
1,116
9,413
83,980
8,904
11,635
10,640
3,740
4,155
3,406
3,742
3,116
3,172
2,911
2,704
2,395
2,149
1,968
1,917
1,784
1,662
1,537
944
918
906
918
949
9,977
86,150
10,069
11,393
10,777
3,977
4,216
3,648
3,525
3,141
3,135
2,875
2,687
2,302
2,114
1,998
1,838
1,799
1,720
1,485
1,004
942
906
882
867
9,280
86,579
11,644
11,505
10,838
4,292
4,246
3,712
3,614
3,285
3,123
2,784
2,719
2,361
2,346
1,982
1,895
1,712
1,701
1,525
990
943
895
852
850
8,857
88,673
16,988
2,320
5,240
1,213
1,478
5,042
1,158
1,042
2,689
1,747
1,070
1,580
653
1,895
1,754
20,868
66,737
19,701
4,766
5,542
2,261
2,056
2,542
1,578
2,263
2,746
2,043
1,457
1,965
1,137
1,994
1,704
23,112
76,868
19,180
9,266
4,442
3,319
2,701
2,895
2,793
2,370
2,445
2,316
1,874
2,014
1,458
1,763
1,588
27,442
87,867
18,882
9,791
4,439
3,488
2,813
3,096
2,838
2,394
2,369
2,404
1,910
2,043
1,567
1,730
1,532
27,679
88,974
18,490
10,231
4,688
3,685
2,860
3,137
2,991
2,458
2,356
2,372
1,928
2,063
1,599
1,676
1,520
27,789
89,846
18,961
10,664
4,521
3,727
3,048
3,179
3,000
2,455
2,408
2,383
2,038
2,020
1,615
1,664
1,494
28,065
91,243
19,035
11,056
4,298
3,846
3,229
3,196
3,185
2,456
2,371
2,371
2,024
1,941
1,641
1,615
1,501
28,320
92,086
52
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Gold
1,800
1,800
1,500
1,500
1,200
1,200
900
900
600
600
300
300
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
0
1970
Constant 2010
Nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
136
247
128
317
152
56
522
20
53
70
63
1
11
52
22
0
8
64
44
206
2,174
175
296
144
353
156
134
428
24
72
88
125
26
27
73
37
15
29
61
54
242
2,560
209
263
163
256
121
206
297
30
67
84
158
28
18
67
36
48
44
38
40
291
2,464
341
260
201
231
91
164
191
79
93
90
106
64
30
67
54
39
39
62
39
352
2,594
361
258
185
234
100
164
187
89
88
91
77
59
37
62
56
37
36
65
45
404
2,635
403
252
183
235
105
162
154
103
99
93
69
55
40
58
66
40
41
67
50
439
2,713
428
267
230
230
125
151
169
120
95
98
60
52
42
63
56
43
41
80
49
482
2,881
452
274
249
210
152
141
152
118
136
102
69
72
49
56
57
41
45
78
46
563
3,061
450
285
249
213
159
145
144
125
113
102
97
71
64
62
58
46
44
42
41
519
3,027
426
217
126
245
189
458
n/a
82
47
133
61
78
156
71
30
12
28
37
22
877
3,294
704
213
228
277
161
522
34
107
54
99
107
86
153
64
50
14
25
46
26
791
3,761
695
277
303
219
165
290
61
83
56
87
71
74
125
52
55
10
27
41
30
605
3,325
783
523
109
179
158
126
61
68
41
39
43
44
47
41
33
25
44
39
25
401
2,827
761
651
136
167
147
103
66
62
48
39
30
37
37
39
28
27
45
37
24
373
2,858
736
698
114
147
126
96
72
54
48
44
39
35
33
36
28
27
32
37
22
344
2,767
716
1,058
178
160
124
92
74
49
48
52
42
45
41
37
38
31
45
42
25
373
3,269
771
731
156
152
119
96
70
61
44
49
42
41
37
36
36
25
32
36
26
334
2,891
812
668
112
164
102
94
51
56
41
43
39
36
41
36
39
31
40
30
26
331
2,790
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
53
1,000
800
800
600
Sawnwood
700
400
600
500
Jan-04
1,000
900
Sawnwood, nominal
200
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
1970
1980
1990
312.7
n/a
42.2
117.5
23.9
56.7
12.7
37.5
673.4
1,276.4
327.1
n/a
79.2
150.8
61.7
44.8
30.9
43.0
708.4
1,446.0
2.0
5.2
0.6
2.0
0.0
2.3
n/a
2.1
69.0
83.1
8.3
3.8
3.1
3.7
0.0
3.8
n/a
3.0
69.7
95.4
63.7
14.8
19.8
n/a
11.6
12.3
8.0
7.4
251.6
389.1
65.3
21.2
32.8
n/a
13.0
11.3
14.9
10.3
252.1
420.9
2000
2010
2020
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
420.6
145.6
96.0
198.9
103.0
57.4
48.8
50.1
563.9
1,684.4
336.1
161.6
161.8
138.8
128.4
66.3
54.1
46.0
609.4
1,702.5
354.7
175.6
160.9
146.7
140.0
66.0
60.7
45.5
618.1
1,768.3
347.1
177.5
159.6
146.7
146.8
63.6
62.6
44.6
617.8
1,766.3
354.9
180.4
168.7
147.8
142.6
63.7
62.6
49.3
624.5
1,794.5
356.8
188.3
162.5
149.9
149.5
66.8
62.6
50.7
649.4
1,836.5
7.2
2.0
2.0
4.4
1.3
5.2
n/a
1.5
58.9
82.6
15.7
3.5
11.7
8.5
2.2
9.9
4.0
6.5
53.2
115.3
35.4
7.7
6.3
8.0
5.3
6.3
4.2
4.7
32.0
109.9
43.3
7.0
6.7
7.4
6.3
5.7
4.3
4.3
35.5
120.6
38.7
6.6
6.9
7.3
6.5
5.5
4.3
4.5
32.5
112.8
45.9
8.4
7.5
8.2
6.5
6.7
4.5
4.9
33.5
126.1
53.7
8.3
8.1
7.3
6.5
6.3
4.5
4.3
35.0
133.9
86.1
23.6
39.7
n/a
14.7
12.0
13.7
7.5
265.6
463.0
91.1
6.7
50.5
20.0
16.3
16.2
21.3
13.4
149.4
384.8
60.0
37.2
38.7
28.9
22.1
16.8
17.5
9.5
145.1
375.6
63.2
44.6
38.9
31.2
22.6
16.5
16.2
9.8
145.5
388.5
67.5
55.7
40.6
32.2
21.1
16.3
15.2
9.4
146.1
404.0
71.1
63.0
42.8
33.5
21.5
16.2
15.4
10.4
148.7
422.7
74.8
68.4
43.4
33.9
21.8
17.8
15.2
10.9
152.6
438.7
1.3
22.5
9.0
10.7
1.6
6.1
6.0
n/a
27.3
84.5
6.1
34.4
10.0
7.9
2.0
6.3
8.4
0.0
40.6
115.6
16.2
16.6
6.4
5.7
4.8
4.4
6.1
1.7
46.5
108.4
23.1
16.4
6.8
4.9
4.7
4.6
6.0
2.0
48.1
116.7
22.0
17.4
6.6
5.2
4.5
4.4
4.9
2.1
46.6
113.6
25.5
20.5
7.5
5.5
4.4
4.5
4.7
2.7
46.9
122.1
27.4
22.2
6.8
6.4
4.7
4.7
4.6
2.8
50.0
129.5
427.2
n/a
91.2
156.0
74.3
49.1
38.4
40.2
832.9
1,709.2
1990
2000
1980
0.1
10.6
3.0
9.0
0.4
6.0
4.0
n/a
19.6
52.6
0.3
17.0
5.6
6.6
1.6
6.9
5.8
n/a
27.8
71.5
54
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Lead
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
4,000
3,000
2,500
Constant 2010
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
1980
1990
364
570
493
188
174
n/a
26
84
20
45
18
70
9
n/a
3,150
175
1,151
15
26
392
325
149
231
305
234
134
121
85
2,083
5,424
297
1,291
80
39
394
329
238
184
327
229
171
124
76
1,683
5,460
1980
1990
2000
2010
China
Australia
United States
Peru
Mexico
Russian Federation
India
Sweden
Bolivia
Poland
Turkey
Korea, Dem. Peoples Rep.
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Others
World
Nominal
210
1,094
54
33
433
393
275
111
83
2,663
5,348
244
1,275
80
147
448
416
258
115
75
2,290
5,348
2000
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
660
678
447
271
138
13
38
107
10
51
16
26
17
610
3,080
1,142
767
437
319
134
36
60
61
11
51
19
20
22
372
3,453
1,981
712
356
262
192
97
91
68
73
48
39
27
32
396
4,374
2,613
639
336
249
238
151
115
64
81
73
54
38
36
427
5,115
2,697
711
343
266
253
165
106
60
82
74
78
59
40
384
5,317
2,853
728
385
278
250
194
105
71
76
77
65
45
45
388
5,561
2,340
689
375
316
254
188
139
79
79
77
77
48
46
352
5,059
1,100
1,431
222
57
387
328
332
284
312
223
237
120
86
1,582
6,701
2,359
1,293
254
56
342
304
272
230
275
267
211
110
121
1,572
7,665
4,157
1,255
321
366
405
301
317
273
267
210
150
163
115
1,531
9,832
4,591
1,221
460
461
426
312
334
279
259
206
138
160
165
1,572
10,585
4,935
1,308
522
462
400
296
321
284
252
233
180
160
152
1,675
11,180
4,740
1,120
670
477
380
267
313
282
240
226
210
162
160
1,670
10,917
3,858
1,127
616
442
377
351
310
269
232
223
210
162
160
1,768
10,106
660
1,660
309
56
390
343
283
219
155
2,416
6,491
1,974
1,490
376
139
330
291
262
279
189
2,447
7,777
4,171
1,430
382
420
343
224
245
262
201
2,130
9,807
4,618
1,360
429
524
381
273
195
244
238
2,126
10,388
4,927
1,750
550
428
392
252
235
257
234
2,195
11,222
4,718
1,670
601
521
337
254
258
245
229
2,121
10,955
3,816
1,608
536
484
357
263
232
228
224
2,227
9,976
2020
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Maize
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
Constant 2010
Nominal
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
1970/71
105.5
33.0
14.1
29.8
9.9
8.9
n/a
7.5
2.6
n/a
2.8
2.0
1.3
80.4
297.9
8.9
16.8
2.0
2.3
n/a
8.4
38.4
12.9
0.9
6.4
n/a
n/a
0.0
n/a
11.9
32.2
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0
1970
Jan-16
18.9
5.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
22.6
47.3
1980/81
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
168.6
62.6
22.6
42.5
12.9
10.4
n/a
7.0
5.8
n/a
4.0
3.1
1.7
110.1
451.3
201.5
96.8
24.3
36.6
7.7
14.1
4.7
9.0
7.1
2.5
5.0
5.1
5.8
98.4
518.6
251.9
106.0
41.5
51.9
15.4
17.9
3.8
12.0
7.0
1.5
5.9
4.5
4.0
68.5
591.8
315.6
177.2
57.4
58.3
25.2
21.1
11.9
21.7
12.0
3.1
6.8
7.3
8.8
109.1
835.5
273.2
205.6
81.5
58.9
27.0
21.6
20.9
22.3
13.1
8.2
8.5
7.3
7.6
113.9
869.5
351.3
218.5
80.0
64.6
26.0
22.9
30.9
24.3
14.2
11.6
9.1
7.5
7.7
121.9
990.5
361.1
215.6
85.0
75.5
28.7
25.5
28.5
24.2
11.5
11.3
9.0
7.7
7.5
121.8
1,012.8
345.5
224.6
84.0
57.5
28.0
24.0
23.3
21.0
13.6
13.2
9.4
7.5
7.0
113.6
972.1
42.8
35.4
1.3
4.8
0.1
22.9
107.4
82.8
38.6
0.8
3.7
0.0
19.1
145.1
102.4
48.2
2.7
3.2
0.9
17.8
175.3
49.4
28.6
6.3
5.2
2.8
31.2
123.6
67.6
20.9
9.2
5.1
3.2
27.4
133.4
81.3
31.3
14.0
6.8
4.5
37.1
175.0
100.5
44.0
7.9
9.3
5.8
40.1
207.6
109.5
47.3
6.5
6.4
5.5
33.8
208.9
60.7
0.0
9.1
n/a
n/a
0.0
n/a
10.5
80.3
43.9
0.0
4.0
0.4
0.4
0.0
n/a
9.8
58.4
49.3
6.3
9.7
0.4
0.0
0.6
n/a
10.5
76.7
46.5
8.4
16.3
5.0
0.0
1.6
2.0
11.4
91.3
18.5
24.9
18.7
12.7
1.9
2.8
0.6
14.9
95.1
48.8
21.0
17.1
20.0
4.2
2.4
1.7
15.9
131.1
47.4
34.5
18.9
19.7
3.2
3.3
3.0
11.8
141.7
41.9
28.0
19.0
15.7
4.1
2.3
1.7
9.6
122.3
26.6
14.0
3.8
2.4
1.0
0.1
0.4
52.6
100.9
5.7
16.3
1.9
5.6
1.9
0.0
0.8
32.0
64.3
3.7
16.3
6.0
8.7
5.3
0.1
1.3
33.5
74.9
7.4
15.6
8.3
8.1
5.8
1.3
3.5
42.6
92.6
11.4
14.4
5.7
8.2
5.1
1.7
3.7
49.7
99.8
16.0
15.1
11.0
10.4
8.7
2.4
5.5
54.9
124.0
8.6
14.7
11.3
10.2
7.8
3.5
6.2
61.2
123.5
15.0
14.7
12.0
10.0
8.3
5.0
5.0
60.0
130.0
55
56
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Natural gas
Monthly Prices (US$/mmbtu)
20
20
Japan
Japan
15
15
10
10
Europe
Europe
5
US
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
1970
595
n/a
1
4
57
3
0
2
3
1
n/a
0
11
1
n/a
27
2
0
0
2
3
0
10
n/a
992
1990
2000
2010
2020
US
0
1980
Jan-16
599
n/a
3
3
3
2
36
10
15
1
11
14
0
1
n/a
n/a
980
1980
1990
2000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
549
n/a
5
5
75
15
25
10
14
19
n/a
2
26
8
n/a
76
11
2
0
3
7
2
35
n/a
1,435
504
590
6
26
109
16
25
34
49
44
79
17
27
20
37
61
21
8
7
5
12
4
45
236
1,983
543
529
24
60
182
28
50
50
84
70
43
47
38
38
51
58
31
21
20
16
22
12
108
293
2,416
604
589
126
152
160
99
107
88
80
86
42
63
58
51
54
71
46
61
36
45
42
37
57
448
3,203
649
607
161
160
160
109
101
92
83
81
60
62
58
52
57
64
47
61
37
43
42
41
45
443
3,316
681
592
170
166
156
114
115
99
82
77
62
62
57
54
57
64
52
61
41
43
44
43
39
450
3,380
689
605
176
164
156
125
109
100
82
72
62
67
58
55
57
69
53
56
42
43
43
36
36
454
3,409
728
579
177
173
162
134
109
108
83
73
69
66
58
58
57
56
55
49
42
42
42
39
37
464
3,461
563
n/a
15
5
24
10
52
23
57
5
45
25
0
1
n/a
n/a
1,436
543
408
16
24
48
34
67
28
60
17
52
43
7
12
36
565
1,958
661
360
25
63
72
50
93
41
79
31
97
65
22
26
46
686
2,418
682
414
110
153
95
88
95
72
83
61
94
76
45
63
41
1,021
3,194
693
425
135
162
105
92
101
77
75
63
78
71
47
64
48
1,030
3,265
723
416
151
162
114
99
100
80
78
66
74
69
51
59
47
1,057
3,346
740
413
171
159
114
100
104
85
82
67
73
64
52
51
47
1,058
3,381
759
409
185
170
112
108
104
86
71
69
67
57
53
51
49
1,042
3,393
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Natural rubber
Monthly Prices (US$/kg)
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1970
250
991
86
568
283
25
8
20
26
37
796
3,090
279
790
1,304
23
11
413
2,820
1990
2000
2010
2020
1990
2000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
501
822
46
113
155
1,530
23
28
632
3,850
1,275
1,261
94
264
324
1,291
69
31
376
4,985
2,346
1,501
291
445
629
928
123
88
461
6,811
3,252
2,736
752
687
851
939
231
136
811
10,395
3,569
2,990
789
727
893
996
234
166
853
11,217
3,778
3,012
877
802
919
923
254
171
893
11,629
4,170
3,237
949
865
796
827
289
187
931
12,251
4,324
3,153
954
857
705
668
317
185
908
12,070
340
1,007
171
585
427
46
28
45
118
81
932
3,780
600
1,012
358
808
677
108
99
184
255
124
845
5,068
1,150
1,293
638
1,195
752
139
243
364
332
227
975
7,306
3,668
1,136
944
926
749
421
459
458
384
378
1,268
10,792
3,622
1,242
957
1,029
772
460
487
402
402
382
1,242
10,997
3,857
1,077
988
950
728
465
505
441
396
343
1,271
11,020
4,210
1,060
962
913
710
509
521
434
396
409
1,264
11,388
4,760
1,139
1,012
932
709
540
541
447
402
413
1,264
12,159
457
976
1,482
33
23
299
3,270
1,151
1,077
1,322
80
69
263
3,962
2,166
1,380
978
273
121
359
5,277
2,866
2,369
1,245
782
226
533
8,022
2,890
2,566
1,239
817
234
582
8,327
3,024
2,525
1,291
1,023
255
589
8,707
3,649
2,770
1,332
1,076
285
661
9,773
3,615
2,662
1,192
1,067
323
814
9,672
242
1,068
1
576
458
43
118
56
673
3,235
340
1,072
61
820
663
136
254
95
1,328
4,769
820
1,474
11
1,192
801
548
331
139
1,065
6,380
2,590
1,427
187
931
747
706
388
249
1,157
8,382
2,665
1,664
158
1,049
785
667
402
223
1,170
8,784
3,176
1,459
250
969
700
871
397
181
1,310
9,314
3,652
1,451
336
927
722
1,005
396
224
1,235
9,948
3,809
1,546
402
946
689
914
403
230
1,263
10,202
287
815
28
46
90
1,269
11
25
569
3,140
1980
1980
Nominal
0
1970
Constant 2010
178
1,071
3
543
292
45
26
11
641
2,810
57
58
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Nickel
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
60,000
Constant 2010
40,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
20,000
10,000
Nominal
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1980
1990
38
n/a
189
74
87
41
11
3
26
38
0
7
0
n/a
749
16
n/a
196
67
85
69
33
13
30
41
0
0
0
n/a
888
11
n/a
109
145
35
37
33
3
0
13
19
n/a
0
n/a
743
28
n/a
103
127
43
58
32
13
0
17
27
n/a
18
n/a
858
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0
1970
18
122
142
0
0
27
78
12
4
n/a
717
28
159
127
18
24
27
93
14
21
n/a
842
2000
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
17
266
191
170
129
117
51
32
37
71
0
0
28
82
1,191
27
289
200
186
112
156
59
38
42
74
0
0
53
120
1,356
184
274
160
170
130
216
80
54
40
65
0
0
49
95
1,518
318
269
212
244
132
622
93
90
46
65
6
2
52
117
2,266
316
264
223
256
150
811
93
74
51
62
25
9
49
118
2,504
411
264
235
245
178
146
92
86
55
50
37
36
41
131
2,006
317
264
235
220
186
106
92
83
57
49
47
46
37
145
1,884
52
242
161
134
112
59
44
23
0
54
38
0
28
164
1,110
97
264
164
140
122
85
47
30
0
41
38
0
53
208
1,288
314
263
166
105
102
92
40
28
0
49
32
23
49
174
1,437
591
254
170
152
129
92
45
59
6
46
39
24
52
200
1,858
711
242
178
153
142
91
48
56
25
44
42
28
49
194
2,005
644
239
178
151
138
91
62
73
37
43
39
25
41
186
1,946
575
233
193
163
128
91
78
72
47
43
39
37
37
181
1,916
58
192
153
106
91
53
102
23
32
342
1,150
197
180
128
84
118
85
116
16
50
344
1,317
489
177
119
73
101
62
100
27
21
257
1,427
805
159
126
57
108
65
89
33
19
275
1,734
909
159
123
53
107
59
66
37
26
259
1,798
761
157
152
66
100
60
62
27
29
285
1,700
964
159
152
87
83
60
60
37
35
295
1,933
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
59
Nitrogen Fertilizers
Annual Constant Prices (US$/mt)
800
600.0
600
Urea
400.0
400
200.0
200
0.0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1970
1980
1,200
838
8,161
n/a
726
45
140
n/a
n/a
118
31
0
1,030
957
1,900
0
594
82
n/a
16,868
32,690
9,993
2,164
12,053
n/a
1,755
958
572
295
n/a
401
72
138
1,290
1,624
2,380
15
743
600
n/a
27,900
62,951
Urea, nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
0
1970
2,987
1,310
7,363
276
264
184
323
1,425
1,642
243
n/a
50
n/a
123
166
406
785
99
331
13,446
31,423
11,787
3,522
10,818
886
843
851
946
2,146
2,303
782
n/a
136
n/a
248
129
878
1,344
266
554
22,054
60,493
1990
2000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
14,637
6,993
10,816
n/a
2,683
2,462
1,120
350
3,004
678
376
568
1,233
1,928
1,165
18
770
1,026
747
21,389
71,964
22,175
10,943
8,352
5,452
3,797
2,853
2,054
748
2,130
1,441
726
1,278
1,497
1,300
1,558
227
935
400
574
18,185
86,624
36,009
11,924
9,722
6,052
3,509
3,261
2,594
1,379
2,154
2,779
1,311
1,619
1,320
1,216
1,165
431
884
557
670
17,017
105,573
35,678
12,178
9,587
6,544
3,364
3,207
2,629
1,556
2,312
2,761
1,524
1,695
1,509
1,175
1,289
479
947
747
740
18,195
108,116
36,323
12,288
9,414
6,917
3,565
3,375
2,534
1,480
2,985
2,709
1,904
1,737
1,445
1,322
1,275
503
956
929
773
18,739
111,170
36,056
12,237
10,150
6,605
3,344
3,313
2,232
2,095
3,072
2,474
2,058
1,923
1,529
1,293
1,326
861
932
905
832
18,344
111,580
36,810
12,409
9,280
6,819
3,225
3,173
2,589
2,535
2,489
2,308
1,975
1,920
1,466
1,381
1,326
999
911
865
862
18,126
111,468
19,233
7,566
10,239
797
1,472
1,610
1,158
2,493
1,787
1,200
4,344
577
1,836
439
425
1,346
671
609
745
18,231
76,777
22,720
10,911
10,467
1,998
2,265
1,964
1,592
2,317
1,848
1,276
960
922
350
951
1,332
1,342
896
996
1,084
15,880
82,070
33,600
15,582
11,117
2,554
3,476
3,215
1,901
2,069
1,569
1,412
1,494
1,228
700
849
1,190
1,113
1,113
1,149
1,193
15,928
102,453
32,599
16,558
11,737
2,855
3,143
3,045
1,990
2,337
1,786
1,344
1,483
1,311
650
982
1,250
1,166
1,090
1,237
1,159
16,800
104,522
33,800
17,300
12,231
3,366
3,209
2,940
2,297
2,020
1,640
1,259
1,577
1,386
1,159
1,099
1,300
1,168
1,095
1,122
1,207
16,660
107,835
34,294
16,821
12,050
3,435
2,853
3,063
2,479
2,140
1,648
1,432
1,576
1,382
1,254
1,099
1,407
1,201
1,204
1,112
1,087
17,006
108,543
34,250
16,731
12,247
3,699
3,179
2,820
2,457
2,191
1,675
1,584
1,537
1,480
1,382
1,315
1,261
1,246
1,172
1,133
1,114
17,665
110,136
60
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
2,200
1,800
1,800
Soybean oil
1,400
1,400
Soybean oil
1,000
1,000
600
Palm oil
600
Palm oil
200
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
248
589
0
36
432
0
5
21
0
0
591
1,922
752
2,692
19
80
520
45
44
19
18
0
707
4,896
2000
2010
2020
1
29
595
53
8
1
1,707
2,394
431
561
607
16
420
231
3,104
5,370
2010/11
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2,650
6,031
200
252
600
145
150
24
64
6
912
11,034
8,300
11,937
580
520
730
336
222
108
148
124
1,234
24,239
23,600
18,211
1,832
753
971
488
380
426
320
231
2,021
49,233
28,500
19,321
2,135
974
970
520
540
471
425
365
2,183
56,404
30,500
20,161
2,000
1,041
970
500
565
493
460
434
2,244
59,368
33,000
19,879
1,800
1,110
970
520
485
495
470
448
2,222
61,399
33,000
19,500
2,200
1,174
970
580
510
500
490
470
2,285
61,679
259
1,330
1,509
1,194
914
800
6,658
12,664
4,100
3,263
2,790
2,028
1,571
1,245
8,618
23,615
7,090
6,414
5,110
5,797
2,204
2,077
18,940
47,632
8,250
7,851
6,560
6,389
2,451
2,285
21,383
55,169
8,452
9,019
6,850
5,700
2,868
2,490
22,906
58,285
9,100
7,327
6,730
5,750
2,941
2,890
23,507
58,245
9,800
8,520
6,630
5,600
3,280
3,185
24,559
61,574
181
3,749
0
n/a
1,260
2
10
52
2,205
7,459
183
5,112
158
2,601
2,478
69
6
255
4,191
15,053
3,240
8,355
3,190
4,333
3,033
805
174
795
2,887
26,812
9,840
8,568
7,181
6,970
2,318
1,646
300
648
3,915
41,386
11,626
8,990
6,364
6,760
2,375
1,752
564
653
3,993
43,077
12,335
9,131
6,785
7,070
2,546
1,478
640
720
4,415
45,120
13,347
9,706
7,687
7,760
2,584
1,211
697
745
5,303
49,040
14,655
9,857
8,740
7,680
2,622
1,086
783
760
5,913
52,096
3,542
7,401
2,932
2,080
247
2,186
863
873
6,335
26,459
11,409
7,506
5,205
2,610
2,520
2,400
840
620
7,409
40,519
12,545
8,522
5,534
2,950
2,275
1,900
860
600
7,482
42,668
13,650
8,576
5,705
3,300
2,729
1,950
890
630
7,774
45,204
14,200
8,600
6,275
4,000
2,501
1,950
1,001
720
8,627
47,874
15,450
8,891
6,365
4,750
2,560
1,950
1,036
800
9,398
51,200
599
6,082
1,179
2,669
2,317
425
56
330
4,425
18,082
1990
2000/01
1980
200
1970
Jan-16
179
2,854
n/a
79
0
1,170
52
95
2,699
7,128
256
4,134
1,490
708
56
1,926
305
343
5,120
14,338
1,055
5,506
2,075
445
101
1,879
404
431
5,417
17,313
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
61
1,000
1000.0
800
DAP
800.0
DAP
600
600.0
400
400.0
0.0
Jan-04
200
Potassium chloride
200.0
Potassium chloride
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
China
United States
India
Russian Federation
Morocco
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Tunisia
Others
World
907
n/a
228
n/a
99
169
0
177
14,102
15,682
2,607
7,437
854
n/a
174
1,623
n/a
408
20,574
33,677
4,114
8,105
2,077
4,943
1,180
1,091
n/a
664
14,244
36,417
6,759
7,337
3,751
2,320
1,122
1,496
159
885
8,915
32,744
14,374
5,817
4,390
2,578
1,288
1,813
71
859
6,787
37,977
15,998
6,297
4,378
2,926
1,875
2,004
119
997
8,102
42,697
17,631
6,123
4,370
3,070
2,242
2,011
298
398
8,323
44,466
16,387
6,456
3,825
2,940
2,433
2,183
826
528
8,171
43,749
16,620
6,055
3,973
2,929
2,198
2,100
919
631
8,036
43,460
China
India
Brazil
United States
Canada
Pakistan
Indonesia
Australia
Others
World
907
305
416
4,671
326
31
45
757
13,743
21,202
2,952
1,091
1,965
4,926
634
227
274
853
18,990
31,912
5,770
3,125
1,202
3,811
578
389
581
579
19,887
35,920
8,664
4,248
2,544
3,862
634
675
263
1,107
10,815
32,812
11,000
7,278
3,342
3,719
630
860
450
641
9,556
37,477
12,100
8,050
3,384
3,890
723
767
500
817
10,343
40,574
12,300
7,914
3,860
3,946
799
633
584
873
10,642
41,551
12,400
6,653
4,325
4,215
831
747
695
803
10,732
41,401
11,480
5,695
4,641
4,335
886
881
849
816
11,405
40,988
3,179
n/a
n/a
n/a
4,824
576
21
n/a
8,871
17,471
7,337
n/a
20
n/a
6,123
797
23
n/a
13,307
27,608
7,005
n/a
46
4,992
4,967
1,296
41
842
3,649
22,838
9,174
3,716
275
3,372
3,409
1,748
408
1,162
2,878
26,141
4,414
3,691
2,600
2,485
1,789
1,653
662
672
1,801
19,767
10,289
6,128
3,101
5,223
2,962
1,944
850
1,166
2,043
33,706
9,919
6,526
3,390
5,332
3,106
1,700
964
1,355
2,482
34,775
9,877
5,403
4,007
4,831
3,056
2,100
1,244
1,094
2,409
34,022
9,461
6,086
4,565
4,229
2,968
2,150
1,187
1,047
2,604
34,297
China
Brazil
United States
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Belarus
Viet Nam
Others
World
25
307
3,827
199
18
61
n/a
38
11,289
15,764
527
1,267
5,733
618
91
250
n/a
39
15,302
23,826
1,761
1,210
4,537
1,309
310
494
986
29
13,685
24,320
3,364
2,760
4,469
1,565
266
650
450
450
8,121
22,095
4,300
3,149
4,044
3,632
801
700
663
300
6,011
23,601
5,200
3,894
4,165
3,514
1,250
1,150
660
400
7,243
27,477
5,700
4,431
4,186
2,576
1,401
1,250
787
440
7,369
28,140
6,000
4,844
4,461
2,062
1,490
1,290
720
552
7,531
28,950
6,500
5,094
4,717
2,058
1,580
1,290
683
570
7,874
30,365
62
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Rice
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
1,000
1,500
800
1,200
600
900
400
600
200
300
Constant 2010
Nominal
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
China
India
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Thailand
Burma
Philippines
Japan
Brazil
Pakistan
United States
Cambodia
Others
World
2000
2010
2020
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
77.0
42.2
13.1
11.1
6.4
9.0
5.1
3.4
11.5
3.7
2.2
2.8
2.5
22.9
213.0
97.9
53.6
22.3
13.9
7.7
11.5
6.7
5.0
8.9
5.9
3.1
4.8
1.1
27.6
269.9
132.5
74.3
29.0
17.9
12.4
11.3
7.9
6.4
9.6
6.8
3.3
5.1
1.6
33.3
351.4
131.5
85.0
33.0
25.1
20.5
17.1
10.8
8.1
8.6
6.9
4.8
5.9
2.5
39.4
399.3
137.0
96.0
35.5
31.7
26.4
20.3
11.1
10.5
7.8
9.3
4.8
7.6
4.2
48.3
450.4
143.0
105.2
36.6
33.8
27.5
20.2
11.7
11.4
7.9
8.0
5.5
6.3
4.7
50.4
472.4
142.5
106.6
36.3
34.4
28.2
20.5
12.0
11.9
7.9
8.3
6.8
6.1
4.7
52.2
478.4
144.6
105.5
35.6
34.5
28.2
18.8
12.6
11.9
7.8
8.5
6.9
7.1
4.7
52.2
478.8
145.8
103.0
35.3
34.5
28.1
15.8
12.2
11.4
7.7
7.6
6.7
6.1
4.4
52.2
470.6
11.0
6.0
1.2
0.6
6.1
0.6
3.4
28.8
28.0
6.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
1.5
7.6
52.6
94.0
14.5
0.9
2.1
1.0
1.8
12.4
126.7
93.0
25.1
2.2
4.6
2.6
2.8
16.4
146.7
42.6
23.5
5.6
7.1
2.9
2.5
15.9
100.0
46.8
25.4
12.8
6.5
2.9
1.5
14.7
110.6
46.8
22.8
11.7
5.5
3.0
1.7
15.9
107.4
47.6
17.8
10.1
4.0
2.8
2.2
19.1
103.6
47.8
13.3
5.2
3.2
2.5
2.3
16.0
90.2
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.5
5.2
8.5
3.0
0.9
0.0
1.2
3.1
4.2
12.4
4.0
0.7
1.0
1.3
2.3
2.8
12.1
7.5
1.7
3.5
2.4
2.6
6.2
24.0
10.6
2.8
7.0
3.4
3.5
7.8
35.1
6.7
10.9
6.7
3.6
3.4
8.1
39.4
11.0
10.6
6.3
3.2
3.0
8.1
42.2
9.8
12.2
6.6
4.0
3.2
8.1
44.0
10.0
9.0
7.0
4.4
3.2
8.0
41.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.2
1.0
0.5
2.4
1.3
3.1
1.4
1.1
3.2
2.8
1.4
0.7
1.4
1.3
4.0
2.8
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.4
4.7
3.5
1.8
1.2
1.7
1.4
5.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.5
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.8
2.0
2.1
1.6
1.4
1.5
0.1
6.8
8.6
0.4
8.8
11.8
0.3
8.3
11.3
1.0
13.7
22.1
1.2
20.0
33.0
1.4
22.4
36.7
1.0
23.7
38.4
1.2
24.2
41.1
1.2
22.4
39.6
Iraq
Others
World
1990
1980/81
1980
1970/71
China
Nigeria
Philippines
Indonesia
European Union
Saudi Arabia
0
1970
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
63
Silver
Monthly Prices (US$/toz)
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
Constant 2010
10
10
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
0
1970
Nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1995
2000
2005
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2,334
1,881
1,000
920
1,036
250
425
1,001
1,565
371
48
0
1,285
268
38
204
70
29
21
1,436
14,183
2,483
2,418
1,600
2,060
1,245
400
434
1,164
2,017
927
78
0
1,204
329
40
290
110
24
n/a
1,372
18,194
2,894
3,193
2,500
2,417
1,400
1,350
420
1,262
1,230
883
264
7
1,124
310
32
186
80
47
n/a
1,099
20,697
3,554
3,854
2,900
1,633
1,301
1,313
1,326
1,207
1,250
618
533
129
631
289
138
210
352
70
19
1,002
22,328
4,411
3,640
3,085
1,880
1,276
1,145
1,259
1,183
1,280
552
723
195
596
302
165
243
348
65
23
1,069
23,440
4,778
3,414
3,232
1,725
1,311
1,134
1,214
1,167
1,120
651
641
273
572
302
203
227
292
73
19
1,042
23,389
5,358
3,481
3,639
1,728
1,151
1,400
1,207
1,149
1,060
963
750
205
705
309
374
230
236
128
23
1,088
25,185
5,821
3,674
3,673
1,840
1,174
1,412
1,287
1,403
1,050
964
768
284
618
341
367
255
187
101
80
1,061
26,362
5,766
3,777
3,673
1,847
1,572
1,412
1,345
1,200
1,160
982
905
857
493
401
338
277
187
148
128
954
27,422
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
4,307
3,116
5,891
3,860
126
1,577
794
1,260
795
1,330
1,150
693
380
210
846
381
159
309
232
2,025
29,441
5,843
1,793
5,297
2,145
404
1,095
763
1,028
854
588
967
504
397
368
614
299
166
221
199
3,216
26,761
6,792
2,823
4,147
3,050
667
1,117
929
1,193
944
634
957
556
486
450
556
346
199
201
241
5,770
32,058
7,534
4,477
3,705
2,806
816
894
941
1,052
864
694
808
689
510
535
453
325
225
181
219
5,703
33,431
7,711
3,119
4,155
2,404
644
815
927
856
845
631
673
657
463
387
419
298
245
184
216
4,311
29,960
8,448
5,756
3,293
2,440
1,011
828
895
818
832
641
702
517
471
471
374
277
254
209
236
6,126
34,599
7,808
6,676
4,022
2,329
1,032
882
820
803
793
629
622
501
488
430
358
273
243
241
218
4,011
33,179
64
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Soybeans
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
800
1,000
800
600
600
Constant 2010
400
400
200
200
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
Nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
30.7
0.0
0.0
8.7
0.1
0.0
0.3
n/a
0.0
0.0
2.4
42.1
48.9
15.2
3.5
7.9
0.6
0.4
0.7
n/a
0.0
0.0
3.5
80.9
52.4
15.8
11.5
11.0
1.3
2.6
1.3
0.1
0.0
0.4
7.9
104.3
75.1
39.5
27.8
15.4
3.5
5.3
2.7
0.1
0.0
1.2
5.4
175.8
90.7
75.3
49.0
15.1
7.1
10.1
4.4
1.7
1.9
2.3
6.7
264.3
82.8
82.0
49.3
13.1
8.2
12.2
5.1
2.4
3.7
2.6
7.3
268.6
91.4
86.7
53.4
12.0
8.2
9.5
5.4
2.8
3.3
2.4
7.6
282.6
106.9
97.2
61.4
12.2
8.1
8.7
6.0
3.9
3.1
2.7
9.4
319.5
106.9
100.0
59.0
11.8
8.8
7.5
6.2
3.9
3.1
3.1
9.7
320.2
1.5
20.7
0.0
0.0
7.3
0.0
0.3
0.1
n/a
0.0
12.7
42.5
1.5
27.8
0.9
13.8
14.1
0.4
1.5
0.0
n/a
0.0
23.8
83.9
3.9
32.3
7.0
14.2
13.0
2.4
1.9
0.3
0.4
0.3
24.1
99.7
18.9
44.6
17.3
22.7
16.8
4.5
4.5
0.9
0.4
0.9
15.0
146.4
55.0
44.9
37.6
36.3
12.2
9.3
3.6
1.6
2.1
1.8
16.5
220.9
65.0
46.0
33.6
35.2
12.5
9.9
3.7
3.0
2.2
2.2
16.3
229.5
68.9
47.2
36.2
36.9
13.4
8.3
4.0
3.4
3.4
2.3
17.5
241.3
74.5
51.0
40.2
40.4
13.6
6.8
4.2
3.7
3.7
2.5
21.6
262.1
81.8
50.9
45.7
40.0
13.8
6.1
4.3
4.1
4.0
2.7
24.4
277.7
0.0
11.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
12.3
1.8
19.7
2.7
0.6
0.1
0.4
25.3
2.5
15.2
4.5
1.0
0.2
2.1
25.4
15.5
27.1
7.3
2.5
0.7
0.7
53.8
30.0
41.0
9.2
5.2
2.9
3.4
91.7
41.9
36.1
7.7
5.5
3.5
6.0
100.8
46.8
44.6
7.8
4.8
3.5
5.2
112.7
50.6
50.2
10.6
4.5
3.9
6.3
126.0
59.5
46.4
11.4
4.6
4.2
6.3
132.4
0.0
7.4
0.1
3.2
0.5
0.0
0.0
8.8
20.0
0.5
13.6
1.4
4.2
1.1
0.0
0.0
19.0
39.8
0.0
13.2
1.4
4.4
2.2
0.0
0.0
17.6
38.8
13.2
17.7
4.4
4.8
2.3
0.4
1.3
9.0
53.1
52.3
12.5
3.5
2.9
2.5
1.4
2.1
11.6
88.8
59.9
12.5
3.4
2.8
2.3
1.2
1.9
12.1
96.1
70.4
13.3
3.8
2.9
2.3
1.6
1.8
15.7
111.9
78.4
13.4
3.8
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.4
16.4
122.1
83.0
13.2
4.0
3.1
2.6
2.4
2.4
19.3
129.8
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Sugar
0.8
2.0
0.6
1.5
0.4
1.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
0.0
1970
Constant 2010
Nominal
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
5.1
4.5
15.4
0.5
2.1
5.6
2.5
0.0
2.7
n/a
0.2
0.6
46.5
85.7
8.5
6.5
19.0
1.7
3.2
5.6
2.5
0.9
3.3
n/a
0.5
0.9
54.8
107.6
7.9
13.7
23.2
4.0
6.8
6.3
3.9
2.1
3.6
2.6
1.0
1.9
60.6
137.6
17.1
20.5
22.1
5.1
6.8
8.0
5.2
2.6
4.2
1.6
1.6
2.8
55.3
152.9
38.4
26.6
15.9
9.7
11.2
7.1
5.5
3.9
3.7
3.0
2.0
2.3
33.0
162.2
38.6
27.3
16.7
10.0
14.0
8.1
7.4
5.0
4.3
5.0
2.8
2.1
36.3
177.6
37.8
26.6
16.0
11.3
14.3
7.7
6.4
5.6
4.4
4.4
2.9
2.3
35.9
175.6
36.0
30.2
16.8
10.8
11.0
7.8
6.3
5.2
4.7
4.4
2.9
2.1
36.9
175.1
35.0
28.5
16.1
10.8
10.6
8.0
6.4
5.4
5.0
4.7
3.0
2.3
36.3
172.1
1.8
0.3
0.0
2.9
0.0
0.7
14.4
20.2
1.1
0.7
0.2
1.4
0.1
0.7
13.4
17.6
3.6
1.4
0.2
1.4
0.3
2.4
13.2
22.4
12.0
1.0
0.6
2.0
0.4
1.5
22.4
39.9
6.3
1.6
3.0
1.3
1.5
0.8
15.1
29.5
9.4
6.8
3.6
2.0
0.9
1.5
18.3
42.5
8.2
8.8
5.3
1.6
1.3
0.9
17.7
43.8
9.9
7.3
5.5
1.6
1.2
0.9
17.1
43.6
8.9
5.8
4.9
1.7
1.6
1.0
15.6
39.6
1.2
0.2
1.8
0.3
0.1
2.7
17.7
24.0
2.3
1.0
2.6
0.1
0.2
6.5
22.2
34.9
1.3
2.7
2.8
0.2
0.7
8.1
26.1
42.0
7.7
3.4
3.1
1.4
1.2
7.3
21.6
45.6
25.8
6.6
2.8
3.9
1.5
1.1
12.2
53.9
27.7
6.7
3.1
1.3
1.9
1.7
13.2
55.5
26.2
7.2
3.2
2.8
2.1
1.6
14.6
57.6
24.0
8.0
3.6
2.4
2.2
1.6
12.4
54.1
23.8
8.8
3.7
2.5
2.4
1.5
12.1
54.7
0.4
0.1
4.8
5.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.0
22.7
1.1
0.6
4.4
3.8
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.8
20.8
32.0
1.1
0.2
2.6
4.1
0.1
0.9
0.0
1.2
25.9
36.2
1.1
1.6
1.4
3.3
1.1
1.3
0.8
1.6
31.4
43.6
2.1
3.1
3.4
3.8
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.7
29.7
49.1
3.8
3.6
2.9
3.8
2.6
2.0
1.5
1.8
30.0
52.0
4.3
3.6
3.4
3.3
2.1
1.9
2.1
1.9
28.7
51.2
5.1
3.1
3.2
2.6
2.4
2.1
2.0
1.9
28.2
50.4
5.5
3.2
3.1
2.8
2.5
2.1
2.1
1.9
29.0
52.2
65
66
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Tin
Annual Prices (US$/mt)
30,000
Constant 2010
30,000
20,000
20,000
10,000
10,000
Nominal
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
1990
42.2
39.3
0.6
17.3
4.8
39.1
7.4
28.5
0.8
1.6
0.3
0.7
0.3
41.6
224.5
15.0
30.5
71.3
0.0
17.5
8.8
34.8
3.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.3
2.7
n/a
244.6
35.8
38.0
49.0
0.0
13.1
37.6
15.5
6.1
1.8
0.3
0.0
0.8
0.3
n/a
248.0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1980
China
Indonesia
Myanmar
Bolivia
Peru
Brazil
Australia
Malaysia
Vietnam
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Nigeria
Rwanda
Lao PDR
Others
World
0
1970
Jan-16
12.5
46.5
30.9
19.0
1.8
2.3
0.0
5.0
4.6
100.3
222.9
25.5
36.8
34.8
21.7
7.8
2.3
0.0
6.9
4.0
97.8
237.6
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
87.7
51.6
1.6
12.5
36.4
14.2
9.1
6.3
1.8
0.0
2.0
0.4
0.4
10.4
234.5
113.1
120.0
0.7
18.6
42.5
11.7
2.7
2.9
5.4
7.6
0.9
3.3
0.6
3.1
333.1
129.6
84.0
0.8
20.2
33.8
10.4
18.6
2.7
5.4
7.4
1.3
2.9
0.4
0.6
318.1
115.7
90.0
2.1
19.7
26.1
13.7
6.2
3.7
5.4
2.5
2.4
3.5
0.6
0.5
292.0
149.0
84.0
9.0
19.3
23.7
13.8
6.5
3.7
5.4
5.2
2.6
3.6
0.5
0.6
326.9
177.3
69.6
17.5
19.8
23.1
13.8
7.2
3.8
5.4
4.1
2.5
4.2
0.8
0.5
349.6
146.6
68.4
24.0
20.2
19.5
13.8
7.1
3.7
3.6
3.0
2.1
2.0
0.8
0.6
315.5
109.9
46.4
26.2
17.4
9.4
13.8
17.2
8.5
1.8
3.6
0.0
0.6
0.1
7.4
262.3
112.2
78.0
39.2
38.3
15.6
9.0
29.4
7.7
1.8
3.6
0.0
0.8
0.6
4.4
340.5
149.0
64.2
38.7
36.4
15.0
9.1
23.5
9.9
3.0
3.6
0.6
0.8
0.6
2.0
356.6
147.9
79.8
37.8
24.8
14.3
12.0
22.8
11.4
4.8
3.6
1.4
1.1
0.6
1.8
364.0
159.6
63.0
32.7
24.2
14.9
12.0
23.0
10.3
5.5
3.8
1.9
1.8
0.6
0.5
353.7
186.9
64.8
36.7
24.5
15.4
12.0
16.3
9.7
5.5
4.2
2.3
1.7
0.6
0.1
380.8
166.9
67.4
31.2
20.4
15.1
12.0
10.5
8.8
5.5
4.2
2.1
1.7
0.6
0.1
346.4
49.1
51.0
25.2
20.7
15.3
6.4
0.8
3.6
4.1
100.6
276.9
108.7
42.3
33.2
19.1
17.9
8.4
1.2
3.5
7.0
97.4
338.6
154.3
32.0
35.7
17.4
17.4
10.7
2.0
5.4
6.1
87.7
368.8
176.2
30.7
27.7
17.6
16.2
10.0
2.0
4.5
2.9
70.0
357.8
169.3
29.2
28.3
18.0
14.5
10.4
3.6
7.4
4.7
69.7
355.1
192.6
28.8
27.1
18.8
13.8
11.9
5.5
7.2
6.4
66.8
378.8
176.4
31.3
26.8
17.9
13.1
12.9
6.0
6.0
5.7
67.2
363.1
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Wheat
Monthly Prices (US$/mt)
500
500
400
400
300
Constant 2010
300
200
200
100
Jan-04
100
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
0
1970
Jan-16
7.2
22.4
8.6
5.0
n/a
0.7
45.2
89.1
6.7
n/a
11.8
20.2
9.1
n/a
15.3
63.2
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1970/71
European Union
China
India
Russian Federation
United States
Canada
Ukraine
Pakistan
Australia
Turkey
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Kazakhstan
Argentina
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Others
World
Nominal
2.8
0.5
0.6
18.9
1.7
4.8
45.3
74.7
1980/81
1990/91
2000/01
2010/11
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
93.3
55.2
31.8
n/a
64.8
19.3
n/a
10.9
10.9
13.0
5.9
n/a
7.8
1.8
214.5
529.2
125.0
98.2
49.9
49.6
74.3
32.1
30.4
14.4
15.1
16.0
8.0
16.2
11.0
4.3
169.4
713.8
132.7
99.6
76.4
34.5
60.6
26.5
10.2
21.1
22.1
18.0
8.1
9.1
16.3
6.4
41.7
583.3
136.7
115.2
80.8
41.5
58.9
23.3
16.8
23.3
27.4
17.0
13.5
9.6
17.2
7.2
60.9
649.3
133.9
121.0
94.9
37.7
61.3
27.2
15.8
23.5
22.9
16.0
13.8
9.8
9.3
8.5
62.7
658.3
144.6
121.9
93.5
52.1
58.1
37.5
22.3
24.2
25.3
18.8
14.5
13.9
10.5
8.3
69.4
714.9
156.8
126.2
95.9
59.1
55.1
29.4
24.8
26.0
23.1
15.3
13.0
13.0
12.5
8.3
67.1
725.4
160.0
130.2
86.5
61.0
55.8
27.6
27.3
25.1
24.5
19.5
14.0
13.7
11.3
8.1
68.4
733.1
31.7
26.9
13.0
4.0
n/a
1.2
48.8
125.6
49.9
23.6
22.5
5.8
16.4
3.2
72.2
193.7
91.9
23.8
17.9
21.5
1.5
2.9
47.0
206.5
59.1
23.5
11.9
15.4
13.7
2.9
72.1
198.7
54.0
19.5
10.7
24.2
4.9
5.1
58.5
176.9
65.3
16.1
9.9
17.8
5.2
7.2
72.4
193.9
76.1
20.5
13.8
17.2
6.3
7.8
73.1
214.8
96.3
26.6
19.3
13.2
8.0
7.1
68.7
239.3
17.5
n/a
16.3
41.2
9.6
n/a
23.1
107.6
23.8
1.2
21.7
29.1
11.8
2.0
38.0
127.7
15.7
0.7
17.3
28.9
15.9
0.1
22.6
101.3
23.1
4.0
16.6
35.1
18.6
4.3
31.0
132.7
22.8
11.3
19.0
27.5
18.6
7.2
31.1
137.5
32.0
18.6
23.3
32.0
18.6
9.8
31.6
165.9
35.4
22.8
24.1
23.2
16.6
11.3
30.6
164.1
32.0
23.0
22.0
21.1
17.0
15.5
32.5
163.1
5.4
1.2
2.3
26.6
3.9
5.8
70.8
116.1
5.7
2.0
4.4
5.7
4.4
5.6
76.9
104.7
6.1
4.1
5.6
3.7
7.2
5.9
67.0
99.5
10.6
6.6
6.5
4.6
6.7
5.9
91.1
132.0
8.3
7.1
6.5
5.3
7.4
6.6
104.0
145.2
10.1
7.4
7.5
4.0
7.1
6.1
116.2
158.4
11.1
7.5
7.3
6.0
5.4
5.9
115.8
158.8
11.0
8.1
8.1
6.3
6.0
5.7
115.3
160.5
67
68
APPENDIX B
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
1,200
800
900
Woodpulp
600
600
Woodpulp, nominal
400
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1970
1980
1990
0.9
23.0
n/a
3.3
5.8
0.8
0.2
1.0
34.7
69.8
2.3
26.4
n/a
4.8
8.3
2.5
0.4
2.0
54.6
101.3
2.5
1.0
0.6
0.1
2.0
n/a
0.2
0.1
3.5
10.0
2.1
2.3
0.3
0.3
2.4
n/a
0.2
0.8
7.1
15.7
46.2
19.9
3.4
8.7
7.2
1.3
9.8
n/a
29.1
125.7
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
19.3
45.7
4.8
15.0
14.1
5.8
2.4
4.6
74.7
186.3
109.2
32.6
10.1
9.9
12.6
10.2
6.6
8.2
88.8
288.3
134.0
32.0
12.1
10.5
12.1
11.1
7.4
8.4
89.5
317.2
149.3
31.5
12.8
11.1
12.1
12.1
8.1
8.5
89.3
334.7
177.0
33.5
12.7
11.7
12.2
11.7
8.8
9.0
90.9
367.4
191.2
34.0
13.1
12.4
12.3
11.8
9.6
9.4
93.8
387.6
4.2
3.3
3.8
3.2
3.3
1.2
0.5
0.9
9.9
30.3
13.9
4.1
6.2
6.6
3.3
2.1
1.5
1.7
20.4
59.9
7.7
4.6
4.2
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.4
36.6
66.7
7.9
5.1
5.0
3.0
2.8
2.3
2.9
2.1
39.3
70.5
8.8
5.3
4.8
2.8
2.6
2.3
2.9
2.2
40.7
72.5
8.8
5.1
5.0
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.4
42.1
74.5
9.6
5.1
4.9
3.4
3.3
2.9
2.8
2.8
43.1
77.8
57.2
23.0
4.3
10.2
8.9
2.1
11.3
n/a
37.8
154.8
57.8
26.7
7.3
11.5
12.0
3.7
11.4
5.8
34.9
171.3
50.9
18.9
14.5
11.9
10.5
7.5
9.5
7.4
39.5
170.6
51.1
18.3
14.3
11.9
10.4
8.9
9.1
7.9
41.8
173.6
50.2
17.8
14.3
12.0
10.2
8.8
8.7
7.7
42.6
172.5
49.1
18.1
15.5
11.7
10.5
9.6
8.8
7.2
41.4
171.9
47.8
17.7
16.8
11.5
10.5
10.4
9.1
7.5
41.7
172.9
0.9
4.4
3.7
2.1
0.6
1.1
1.9
2.9
7.6
25.2
4.0
6.6
4.1
3.2
0.9
2.1
2.4
3.1
11.4
37.8
12.1
5.6
5.1
3.4
1.2
2.5
1.9
1.8
14.1
47.9
15.2
5.5
5.0
3.5
1.6
2.5
1.9
1.9
14.4
51.4
17.2
5.2
4.8
3.3
1.6
2.4
2.0
1.8
15.4
53.7
17.6
5.5
5.0
3.5
2.5
2.4
2.1
1.7
16.3
56.6
18.7
5.8
4.8
3.4
2.4
2.3
2.0
1.8
16.9
57.8
3.0
37.0
n/a
6.4
9.6
2.9
0.8
1.4
67.9
129.0
United States
Canada
Brazil
Sweden
Finland
China
Japan
Russian Federation
Others
World
1999
2000
United States
Germany
Japan
China
United Kingdom
Korea, Rep.
Canada
Italy
Others
World
1989
China
United States
Russian Federation
Canada
Germany
Brazil
Turkey
Poland
Others
World
300
1979
0.1
3.2
1.8
1.4
0.6
0.2
1.3
0.9
7.0
16.6
0.4
3.7
2.6
1.8
0.6
0.5
1.8
2.2
7.0
20.6
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
APPENDIX B
Zinc
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
0
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Jan-14
Jan-16
1980
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
150
495
488
32
349
243
50
n/a
1,059
167
229
n/a
70
n/a
6,172
2000
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
763
940
584
70
571
307
108
n/a
1,203
160
167
n/a
110
n/a
7,176
1,780
1,420
910
208
829
401
149
322
1,002
177
263
132
100
1,129
8,823
2,061
1,367
1,202
447
748
476
160
364
667
216
429
186
168
1,079
9,569
3,842
1,480
1,470
740
748
570
411
405
649
199
354
214
211
1,163
12,457
4,859
1,507
1,281
725
738
660
390
371
612
188
338
189
164
1,253
13,274
5,188
1,523
1,351
817
784
643
407
417
426
177
327
193
152
1,251
13,655
5,200
1,560
1,319
729
832
660
449
386
353
222
283
217
193
1,306
13,708
4,750
1,691
1,422
826
810
677
480
384
278
247
236
236
193
1,142
13,372
155
76
44
592
735
152
301
64
n/a
145
147
170
n/a
n/a
6,159
1,957
473
176
780
654
386
489
200
263
337
223
217
241
2,757
9,153
2,725
650
266
724
638
501
457
166
357
334
282
225
206
2,587
10,119
5,209
750
701
690
574
517
498
223
319
322
307
264
260
2,275
12,909
4,881
877
691
649
571
528
496
319
320
324
315
257
247
2,086
12,561
5,280
895
773
652
587
529
492
346
320
323
312
275
262
2,012
13,058
5,827
915
700
648
583
529
482
336
325
321
302
290
265
2,030
13,553
6,155
978
817
678
567
529
479
335
324
318
306
291
267
1,930
13,975
1,402
1,315
419
224
532
674
394
193
138
3,599
8,889
3,040
1,080
448
389
514
602
256
239
166
3,662
10,396
5,350
907
540
538
494
516
321
225
203
3,432
12,526
5,396
892
553
561
474
479
239
104
222
3,139
12,059
5,962
935
578
640
479
498
222
180
265
3,195
12,954
6,420
962
644
638
477
503
388
174
242
3,314
13,762
6,487
924
633
612
479
457
442
289
255
3,334
13,911
552
248
79
592
688
253
309
118
n/a
199
175
208
n/a
n/a
6,698
Nominal
1990
0
1970
Constant 2010
69
200
810
68
95
474
752
155
100
n/a
n/a
6,131
369
992
230
135
530
814
178
114
n/a
n/a
6,568
Appendix C
Description of price series
Technical notes
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
NON-ENERGY
Beverages
Cocoa (ICCO). International Cocoa Organization
daily price, average of the first three positions on the
terminal markets of New York and London, nearest
three future trading months.
Coffee (ICO). International Coffee Organization
indicator price, other mild Arabicas, average New
York and Bremen/Hamburg markets, ex-dock.
Coffee (ICO). International Coffee Organization
indicator price, Robustas, average New York and Le
Havre/Marseilles markets, ex-dock.
Tea. Average three auctions, average of quotations at
Kolkata, Colombo, and Mombasa/Nairobi.
Tea (Colombo). Sri Lankan origin, all tea, average of
weekly quotes.
Tea (Kolkata). leaf, include excise duty, average of
weekly quotes.
Tea (Mombasa/Nairobi). African origin, all tea,
average of weekly quotes.
APPENDIX C
Grains
Barley (U.S.). Feed, No. 2, spot, 20 days to-arrive,
delivered Minneapolis.
Maize (U.S.). No. 2, yellow, f.o.b. US Gulf ports.
Rice (Thailand). 5% broken, white rice (WR), milled,
indicative price based on weekly surveys of export
transactions, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok.
Rice (Thailand). 25% broken, WR, milled indicative
survey price, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok.
Rice (Thailand). 100% broken, A.1 Super, indicative
survey price, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok.
Rice (Vietnam). 5% broken, WR, milled, weekly
indicative survey price, minimum export price, f.o.b.
Hanoi.
Sorghum (U.S.). No. 2 milo yellow, f.o.b. Gulf ports.
Wheat (U.S.). No. 1, hard red winter (HRW),
ordinary protein, export price delivered at the US
Gulf port for prompt or 30 days shipment.
Wheat (U.S.). No. 2, soft red winter (SRW), export
price delivered at the U.S. Gulf port for prompt or 30
days shipment.
Other food
Bananas (Central and South America). Major brands,
free on truck (f.o.t.) Southern Europe, including
duties.
Bananas (Central and South America). Major brands,
US import price, f.o.t. US Gulf ports.
Meat, beef (Australia/New Zealand). Chucks and
cow forequarters, frozen boneless, 85% chemical lean,
c.i.f. U.S. port (east coast), ex-dock.
Meat, chicken (U.S.). Broiler/fryer, whole birds,
2-1/2 to 3 pounds, USDA grade "A", ice-packed,
Georgia Dock preliminary weighted average,
wholesale.
Meat, sheep (New Zealand). Frozen whole carcasses
Prime Medium (PM) wholesale, Smithfield, London.
73
74
APPENDIX C
Timber
Logs (West Africa). Sapele, high quality (loyal and
marchand), 80 centimeter or more, f.o.b. Douala,
Cameroon.
Logs (Southeast Asia). Meranti, Sarawak, Malaysia,
sale price charged by importers, Tokyo.
Plywood (Africa and Southeast Asia). Lauan, 3-ply,
extra, 91 cm x 182 cm x 4 mm, wholesale price, spot
Tokyo.
Sawnwood (West Africa). Sapele, width 6 inches or
more, length 6 feet or more, f.a.s. Cameroonian ports.
Sawnwood (Southeast Asia). Malaysian dark red seraya/meranti, select and better quality, average 7 to 8
inches; length average 12 to 14 inches; thickness 1 to
2 inches; kiln dry, c. & f. UK ports, with 5% agents
commission including premium for products of certified sustainable forest.
Woodpulp (Sweden). Softwood, sulphate, bleached,
air-dry weight, c.i.f. North Sea ports.
Fertilizers
DAP (diammonium phosphate). Standard size, bulk,
spot, f.o.b. US Gulf.
Phosphate rock (Morocco). 70% BPL, contract,
f.a.s. Casablanca.
Potassium chloride (muriate of potash). Standard
grade, spot, f.o.b. Vancouver.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold (U.K.). 99.5% fine, London afternoon fixing,
average of daily rates.
Platinum (U.K.). 99.9% refined, London afternoon
fixing.
Silver (U.K.). 99.9% refined, London afternoon
fixing.
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Technical Notes
Definitions and explanations
Constant prices are prices which are deflated by the
Manufacturers Unit Value Index (MUV).
MUV is the unit value index in U.S. dollar terms of
manufactures exported from fifteen countries: Brazil,
Canada, China, Germany, France, India, Italy, Japan,
Mexico, Republic of Korea, South Africa, Spain, Thailand,
United Kingdom, and United States.
Price indexes were computed by the Laspeyres formula.
The Non-Energy Price Index is comprised of 34
commodities. U.S. dollar prices of each commodity is
weighted by 2002-2004 average export values. Base year
reference for all indexes is 2010. Countries included in
indexes are all low- and middle-income, according to World
Bank income classifications.
Price index weights. Trade data as of May 2008 comes
from United Nations' Comtrade Database via the World
Bank WITS system, Food and Agriculture Organization
FAOSTAT Database, International Energy Agency
Database, BP Statistical Review, World Metal Statistics,
World Bureau of Metal Statistics, and World Bank staff
estimates. The weights can be found in the table on the
next page.
Reporting period. Calendar vs. crop or marketing year
refers to the span of the year. It is common in many
agricultural commodities to refer to production and other
variables over a twelve-month period that begins with
harvest. A crop or marketing year will often differ by
commodity and, in some cases, by country or region.
Abbreviations
$ = U.S. dollar
bbl = barrel
bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day
cif = cost, insurance, freight
cum = cubic meter
dmt = dry metric ton
f.o.b. = free on board
f.o.t. = free on track
kg = kilogram
mb/d = million barrels per day
mmbtu = million British thermal units
mt = metric ton (1,000 kilograms)
toz = troy oz
Acronyms
AMIS
DAP
EIA
EMDE
FAO
GDP
ICMM
IEA
APPENDIX C
IER
IGC
ITRC
LIC
LME
LNG
OECD
Data sources
Baker Hughes
Bloomberg
BP Statistical Review
Concensus Forecast
Cotton Outlook
FAO
Fertilizer Week
INFOFISH
INTERFEL Fel Actualits Hebdo
International Cocoa Organization (ICCO)
International Coffee Organization (ICO)
International Cotton Advisory Committee
International Energy Agency (IEA)
International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA)
International Rubber Study Group (IRSG)
International Tea Committee (ITC)
International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO)
International Sugar Organization (ISO)
ISTA Mielke GmbH Oil World
Japan Lumber Journal
MinEx Consulting
MLA Meat & Livestock Weekly
Platts International Coal Report
Quarterly Bulleting of Cocoa Statistics
Singapore Commodity Exchange
Sopisco News
Sri Lanka Tea Board
Thomson Reuters
U.S. Department of Agriculture
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
U.S. NOAA Fisheries Service
World Bureau of Metal Statistics
World Gas Intelligence
75
76
APPENDIX C
C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T L O O K | a p ril 2 0 1 6
Share of
energy and non-energy indexes
100.0
4.7
84.6
10.8
100.0
64.9
8.4
3.8
3.1
1.5
40.0
11.3
3.4
2.8
4.6
0.5
16.3
4.0
2.1
4.3
4.9
0.5
0.5
12.4
3.9
1.9
2.7
2.4
1.4
16.5
8.6
8.6
1.9
6.7
7.9
1.9
3.7
2.3
3.6
0.6
0.8
0.7
1.5
31.6
8.4
12.1
6.0
0.6
2.5
0.7
1.3
Notes: Index weights are based on 2002-04 developing countries' export values. Precious metals are not included in the non-energy index.
Share of
sub-group indexes
100.0
4.7
84.6
10.8
100.0
45.7
36.9
17.4
100.0
30.2
25.3
40.8
3.7
100.0
24.6
13.0
26.3
30.2
3.1
2.8
100.0
31.5
15.7
22.0
19.2
11.6
100.0
100.0
22.1
77.9
100.0
24.7
46.7
28.7
100.0
16.9
21.7
20.1
41.3
100.0
26.7
38.4
18.9
1.8
8.1
2.1
4.1
100.0
77.8
18.9
3.3