GLOBAL FX STRATEGY CURRENCY STRATEGISTS

Foreign Exchange Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT

(416) 866-5470
Sacha Tihanyi
(416) 862-3154

CFTC Commitments of Traders Camilla_Sutton@scotiacapital.com Sacha_Tihanyi@scotiacapital.com

Friday, June 25, 2010

Week-Over-Week Changes are Uneventful

- Data in this report is up to Tuesday June 22 and released Friday June 25.

• The week-over-week change to the net long USD position was only
+$1bn, driven mostly by a shift in the EUR position. The market is now net
short EUR, GBP and CHF; net long CAD, AUD and MXN and essentially flat
JPY and NZD.
• The net short EUR position increased to 71k contracts or -$10.9bn from
62k contracts or -$9.6bn last week. The change came solely from a closing
of the gross long EUR position; and not from the gross short position. This
hints that longs are increasingly weary, while shorts continue to expect
downside. Accordingly, though the week-over-week change is fairly neutral
it does have a slightly bearish leaning. We continue to expect EUR down-
side and hold a Q3/10 target of 1.17.
• The net long CAD position was essentially unchanged week-over-week
and now stands at $2.6bn. There were small additions to both the gross
long and short side; but nothing substantial enough to hint at a change in
sentiment. We continue to believe that the fundamentals of Canada will
support a relatively strong CAD into year-end.
• The net short GBP position now stands at $4.3bn, essentially unchanged
week-over-week.
• Outside of currencies, essentially flat positions include the S&Ps and cop-
per; the most notable long holding is gold; and speculators are short natu-
ral gas and Treasurys.

Net Long (Short) Non-Commercial Positions

Contracts $mns
w/w 22-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun
CAD -1,001 26,353 27,354 2,559
EUR -8,614 -70,974 -62,360 -10,887
GBP 1,788 -46,346 -48,134 -4,292
JPY 7,310 3,630 -3,680 501
CHF 6,211 -10,265 -16,476 -1,159
AUD -600 11,806 12,406 1,029
NZD 2,951 822 -2,129 58
MXN 7,342 35,639 28,297 1,413
Total 15,387 -49,335 -64,722 -10,777

CAD —Non-Commercial Futures Positions

Contracts of 100,000 CAD w/w change
Date Long Short Net Long Short Net
22-Jun 38,499 12,146 26,353 1,039 2,040 -1,001
15-Jun 37,460 10,106 27,354 685 -4,159 4,844
8-Jun 36,775 14,265 22,510 -487 -843 356
1-Jun 37,262 15,108 22,154 -2,851 -1,133 -1,718

* A trader is classified as “non-commercial” by the Commodity Futures Trading Commis-

sion if the trader is not using futures contracts in a particular currency for hedging purposes (as defined by the Commission). This category of futures trader is generally
considered to include individual investors, hedge funds and other large financial institutions engaged in trading the securities for speculative purposes.
Global FX Research Friday, June 25, 2010

EUR —Non-Commercial Futures Positions GBP —Non-Commercial Futures Positions

Contracts of 125,000 EUR w/w change Contracts of 62,500 GBP w/w change
Date Long Short Net Long Short Net Date Long Short Net Long Short Net
22-Jun 41,013 111,987 -70,974 -8,513 101 -8,614 22-Jun 15,921 62,267 -46,346 2,840 1,052 1,788
15-Jun 49,526 111,886 -62,360 3,588 -45,997 49,585 15-Jun 13,081 61,215 -48,134 -1,065 -27,611 26,546
8-Jun 45,938 157,883 -111,945 932 19,552 -18,620 8-Jun 14,146 88,826 -74,680 2,337 6,563 -4,226
1-Jun 45,006 138,331 -93,325 -624 -14,035 13,411 1-Jun 11,809 82,263 -70,454 847 -3,778 4,625

JPY —Non-Commercial Futures Positions CHF —Non-Commercial Futures Positions

Contracts of 12.5M JPY w/w change Contracts of 125,000 CHF w/w change
Date Long Short Net Long Short Net Date Long Short Net Long Short Net
22-Jun 29,257 25,627 3,630 5,953 -1,357 7,310 22-Jun 9,620 19,885 -10,265 768 -5,443 6,211
15-Jun 23,304 26,984 -3,680 -5,215 -14,082 8,867 15-Jun 8,852 25,328 -16,476 -5,259 -198 -5,061
8-Jun 28,519 41,066 -12,547 -4,696 1,367 -6,063 8-Jun 14,111 25,526 -11,415 2,972 -337 3,309
1-Jun 33,215 39,699 -6,484 1,221 -2,533 3,754 1-Jun 11,139 25,863 -14,724 -350 1,755 -2,105

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Global FX Research Friday, June 25, 2010

AUD —Non-Commercial Futures Positions NZD — Non-Commercial Futures Positions

Contracts of 100,000 AUD w/w change Contracts of 100,000 NZD w/w change
Date Long Short Net Long Short Net Date Long Short Net Long Short Net
22-Jun 29,809 18,003 11,806 2,080 2,680 -600 22-Jun 6,721 5,899 822 2,392 -559 2,951
15-Jun 27,729 15,323 12,406 -2,017 -5,988 3,971 15-Jun 4,329 6,458 -2,129 -1,901 -641 -1,260
8-Jun 29,746 21,311 8,435 -7,275 -665 -6,610 8-Jun 6,230 7,099 -869 -1,392 1,681 -3,073
1-Jun 37,021 21,976 15,045 -2,346 2,132 -4,478 1-Jun 7,622 5,418 2,204 -3,720 1,738 -5,458

MXN —Non-Commercial Futures Positions NYMEX Crude —Non-Commercial Futures Positions

Contracts of 500,000 MXN w/w change Contracts of 1,000 Barrels w/w change
Date Long Short Net Long Short Net Date Long Short Net Long Short Net
22-Jun 40,797 5,158 35,639 7,383 41 7,342 22-Jun 238,384 198,749 39,635 -10,499 -17,204 6,705
15-Jun 33,414 5,117 28,297 9,165 -1,706 10,871 15-Jun 248,883 215,953 32,930 -6,492 -21,965 15,473
8-Jun 24,249 6,823 17,426 -1,893 454 -2,347 8-Jun 255,375 237,918 17,457 -3,780 3,638 -7,418
1-Jun 26,142 6,369 19,773 -8,061 1,023 -9,084 1-Jun 259,155 234,280 24,875 -1,555 14,013 -15,568

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Global FX Research Friday, June 25, 2010

This report is prepared by The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank and Scotia Capital. Opinions, estimates and projections con-
tained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled
or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information
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