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MATHEMATICS 2010
CONTENT
No Contents Page
1 Introduction
2 Part 1
3 Part 2
4 Part 3
5 Part 4
6 Part 5
7 Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will
occur or has occurred. In mathematics the concept has been given an exact
meaning in probability theory, that is used extensively in such areas of study
as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science, and philosophy to
draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the underlying
mechanics of complex systems.
Interpretations
The word probability does not have a consistent direct definition. In fact,
there are sixteen broad categories of probability interpretations, whose
adherents possess different (and sometimes conflicting) views about the
fundamental nature of probability:
The theory of probability has been applied in various fields such as market
research, medical research, transportation, management and so on.
History
The theory of errors may be traced back to Roger Cotes's Opera Miscellanea
(posthumous, 1722), but a memoir prepared by Thomas Simpson in 1755
(printed 1756) first applied the theory to the discussion of errors of
observation. The reprint (1757) of this memoir lays down the axioms that
positive and negative errors are equally probable, and that there are certain
assignable limits within which all errors may be supposed to fall; continuous
errors are discussed and a probability curve is given.
Pierre-Simon Laplace (1774) made the first attempt to deduce a rule for the
combination of observations from the principles of the theory of probabilities.
He represented the law of probability of errors by a curve y = φ(x), x being
any error and y its probability, and laid down three properties of this curve:
He also gave (1781) a formula for the law of facility of error (a term due to
Lagrange, 1774), but one which led to unmanageable equations. Daniel
Bernoulli (1778) introduced the principle of the maximum product of the
probabilities of a system of concurrent errors.
Mathematical treatment
The opposite or complement of an event A is the event [not A] (that is, the
event of A not occurring); its probability is given by P(not A) = 1 - P(A).[7] As
an example, the chance of not rolling a six on a six-sided die is 1 – (chance of
rolling a six) . See Complementary event for a more complete
treatment.
for example, if two coins are flipped the chance of both being heads is
[8]
For example, when drawing a single card at random from a regular deck of
cards, the chance of getting a heart or a face card (J,Q,K) (or one that is
both) is , because of the 52 cards of a deck 13 are hearts,
12 are face cards, and 3 are both: here the possibilities included in the "3
that are both" are included in each of the "13 hearts" and the "12 face cards"
but should only be counted once.
[9]
Summary of probabilities
Event Probability
A
not A
A or B
A and B
A given
B
Theory
There are other methods for quantifying uncertainty, such as the Dempster-
Shafer theory or possibility theory, but those are essentially different and not
compatible with the laws of probability as they are usually understood.
Applications
A) We are playing the monopoly with my two friends. To start the game,
each player will have to toss dice twice. The player who obtains the
highest number will start the game. All the possible outcomes when
the dice is tossed once is
:{1},{2},{3}
List all the possible outcomes when two dice are tossed
simultaneously. Organize and present your list clearly. Consider the
use of table, chart, or even tree diagram.
:{1,1},{1,2},{1,3}
Part 3
Table 1 shows the sum of all dots on both turned-up when two dice are
tossed simultaneously.
2 1 1/36
3 2 1/18
4 3 1/12
5 4 1/9
6 5 5/36
7 6 1/6
8 5 5/36
9 4 1/9
10 3 1/12
11 2 1/18
12 1 1/36
Table 1
A ={}
B = {0}
C = {}
D = {2,2}
Part 4
10
11
12
Table 2
(1)Mean
(2)Variance
(C) Test your prediction in (b) by continuing Activity 3(a) until the
total number of tosses is 100 times. Then determine the value of
(1)Mean
(2)Variance
(3)Standard deviation of the data
Part 5
Conclusion