CHAPTER 1 THE PROBLEM

INTRODUCTION

El Nio is a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean with a global impact on weather
patterns. The cycle begins when warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean shifts
eastward along the equator toward the coast of South America.

El Nio is a naturally occurring event in the equatorial region which causes temporary
changes in the world climate. Originally, El Nio was the name used for warmer than
normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America.
Now, El Nio has come to refer to a whole complex of Pacific Ocean sea-surface
temperature changes and global weather events. The ocean warming off South America
is just one of these events.

It is characterized by variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical

eastern Pacific Ocean warming or cooling known as Nio and Nia respectively and air
surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific, the Southern Oscillation.

PAGASA has already noted significant increase in the SSTA from 0.2 to 0.4C
from April 21 to April 28, 2014. Because of this development and as climate models
predict that this condition may persist for the next nine months, PAGASA is foreseeing
the onset of El Nio in June which may peak during the last quarter of 2014 and may
1

last up to the first quarter of 2015. El Nio could affect the normal rainfall pattern in the
country generally resulting in reduced rainfall. Different parts of the country may
experience varying rainfall impacts. PAGASA will be furnishing monthly rainfall outlook
for six months for the different parts of the country. The country could still experience
normal number of tropical cyclone this year. However, El Nio causes the behavior of
tropical cyclones to become erratic, affecting its tracks and intensity. The tropical
cyclone tracks are expected to shift northward and its intensity could become stronger.

In an El Nio, the equatorial westerly winds diminish. As a result, the Humboldt

Current weakens and this allows the waters along the coast of Chile and Peru to warm
and creates warmer than usual conditions along the coast of South America. As far as
we know, other forces, such as volcanic eruptions (submarine or terrestrial) and
sunspots, do not cause El Nios. El Nios occur irregularly approximately every two to
seven years. Warm water generally appears off the coast of South America close to
Christmas, and reaches its peak warmth in the eastern Pacific during the late fall of the
following year. After peaking, the waters will tend to cool slowly through the winter and
spring of the next year. Effects can be felt continually around the globe for more than a
year, though this is generally not the case in any one place. A strong El Nio is often
associated with flooding rains and warm weather in Peru, drought in Indonesia, Africa,
and Australia, torrential downpours and mudslides in southern California, a mild winter
in the northeast, and fewer hurricanes in the southeast. Keep in mind that these effects
aren't guaranteed, but an El Nio makes these conditions more likely to happen. El
Nios occur irregularly approximately every two to seven years. Warm water generally
appears off the coast of South America close to Christmas, and reaches its peak
warmth in the eastern Pacific during the late fall of the following year. After peaking, the
waters will tend to cool slowly through the winter and spring of the next year. Effects can
be felt continually around the globe for more than a year, though this is generally not the
case in any one place. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration operates a network of buoys that measure temperature,

currents and winds in the equatorial band. The collected data are evaluated by complex
computer models designed to predict an El Nio. Even these complex models, however,
cannot predict the exact intensity or duration of an El Nio, nor can they predict how
areas will be affected.

Pawa is one of the barangays of Masbate City in the province

of Masbate within Region V in the Visayas islands.Pawa is rich in agricultural products.
This is also a place where people use pure organic fertilizers for the plants. The farmers
use also some techniques, through the environment, on taking care of the plants.

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

The topic of the researchers aims to give important facts and to answer the
following questions:
1.
2.
3.
4.

What is El Nio?
What are the effects of El Nio to Pawa Farmers?
When does El Nio happen in Masbate City?
What could be the impact of El Nio to the Community and Provincial
Government of Masbate?

SCOPE AND DELIMITATION

This study covered only the effects of El Nio to Pawa farmers. It also covered
the impact of El Nio to the Community and Provincial Government of Masbate. The
researchers would not include some data that are far to the topic of the researchers, like
the causes of El Nio, history of El Nio and etc.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The success of this study will be of great significance to Osmea Colleges,
students, Pawa farmers, community, and other researchers.

Osmea Colleges

This study will help the school to have

new information that will be used by the
students who are studying in their
perspective school.

Students

This study will help them to have more

knowledge about the effects of El Nio
and can be a new reference for them to
get information.

Pawa farmers

They will benefit from the results of this

study for it will raise their awareness
about the effects of El Nio to their fields
and they will be more knowledgeable on
the preparations that they need during
El Nio.

Community

This study will be significant to them for

the community will be more aware about

the El Nio and its effects especially in

Pawa Farmers.

Other researchers

The information gathered in this study

will be used by the future researchers
who will conduct similar studies.

DEFINITION OF TERMS

For clarity and case of understanding the following terms are being defined as
used in this study:

Equatorial

Of, relating to, or located at the equator

or an equator.

Erratic

Acting, moving, or changing in ways that

are not expected or usual.

Peaking

A tall mountain with a pointed or narrow

top.

Torrential

Coming in a large, fast stream.

NOTES

http://www.livescience.com/3650-el-nino.html

http://www.silent-gardens.com/elnino-lanina.php#.VufQCpx97IU

https://www.wildlife.ca.gov/Conservation/Marine/El-Nino#26072336-what-is-el-nio

https://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/floods/general-flood-

advisories/85climatology-and-agrometeorology/climate-others/714-el-nino-watch
5

https://www.wildlife.ca.gov/Conservation/Marine/El-Nino#26072339-what-causes-an-

el-nio
6

http://www.zamboanga.com/z/index.php?

title=Pawa,_Masbate_City,_Masbate,_Philippines

CHAPTER 2 THE REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE AND RELATED STUDIES

This chapter presents the related literature and related studies to give a clearer
explanation about El Nio and its effects.

RELATED LITERATURE

Weather Revolution by Ropelewski C F, and Halpert M S. states that the El Nio

phenomenon, commonly referred to as El Nio-Southern Oscillation or ENSO, is a
massive disruption in the ocean-atmosphere system of the eastern Pacific Ocean that
has significant and far-reaching consequences on the environmental status of almost
the entire world. El Nio results from a series of environmental shifts that combine to
create changes in both the ocean itself and more importantly in the atmosphere. Up
until 1997, information regarding this environmental wonder was scarce, however due to
the intensely developing El Nio of present day there is the opportunity to truly
understand almost every key aspect of this incredible phenomenon.

Tropical Meteorology by Prof. Bill Gray. It is believed that El Nio conditions

suppress the development of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic; and that La
Nia (cold conditions in the equatorial Pacific) favor hurricane formation. El Nio tends
to increase the numbers of tropical storms in the Pacific Ocean.

El Nio Intensity Increasing in the Central Equatorial Pacific by Kevin E.

Trenberth and Timothy J. Hoar. Typically, it comes around every five years and what
9

usually happens is that warming in the oceans caused by the winds leads to diffusion of
this warming all over the globe. It changes atmospheric pressures with consequences
for rainfall, wind patterns, sea surface temperatures and can sometimes have a positive,
and sometimes a negative effect on those systems. In Europe for example, El Nio
reduces the instances of hurricanes in the Atlantic. The beginning of the El Nio system
will be seen over North America in the preceding winter.

Atmosphere Science by Suarez M J. and Schopf P S. J. Both El Nio and La

Nia are opposite effects of the same phenomenon: the ENSO (El Nio Southern
Oscillation). Both are an oscillation in the temperatures between the atmosphere and
the ocean of the eastern equatorial Pacific region, roughly between the International
Dateline and 120 degrees west. El Nio - the conditions for which build up between
June and December (15) - is caused by a change in the wind patterns. Here, the Pacific
Trade Winds fail to replenish following the summer monsoons of Asia. This warmer air
leads to an oscillation between the cooler and warmer waters, leading to warmer ocean
temperatures than normal.

Atmosphere Science by Battisti D S and Hirst A C. J. The effects of El Nio can

sometime be erratic and are not always be predictable. For example, conditions at the
start of 2014 were remarkably similar to the 1997/8 ENSO event and so therefore it was
expected to be an El Nio year. Yet, as late as August, the initial warning signs were not
appearing in the atmosphere to precede warming in the oceans meaning that the
likelihood of El Nio occurring was dropping off but not entirely eliminated. Whether this
is another effect of climate change is yet to be seen. However, some oceanographic
institutes still predict that El Nio will take place in the autumn months, pointing to
warming throughout August and the sometimes late nature of the development of El
Nio.

10

RELATED STUDIES

The study of Calverton, MD entitled Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere

Studies, is a study that states that El Nio results from interaction between the surface
layers of the ocean and the overlying atmosphere in tropical Pacific. It is the internal
dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system that determine the onset and
termination of El Nio events. The physical processes are complicated, but they involve
unstable air-sea interaction and planetary scale oceanic waves. The system oscillates
between warm (El Nio) to neutral (or cold) conditions with a natural periodicity of
roughly 3-4 years. External forcing from volcanic eruptions (submarine or terrestial)
have no connnection with El Nio. Nor do sunspots as far as we know.

The unpublished thesis of Matthew Mason entitled The interrelations connecting

climate phenomena such as El Nio, La Nia and greenhouse effect, is a content that
states that it is certainly a plausible hypothesis that global warming may affect El Nio,
since both phenomena involve large changes in the earth's heat balance. However,
computer climate models, one of the primary research tools for studies of global
warming, are hampered by inadequate representation of many key physical processes
(such as the effects of clouds on climate and the role of the ocean). Also, no computer
model yet can reliably simulate BOTH El Nio AND greenhouse gas warming together.
So, depending on which model you choose to believe, you can get different answers.
For example, some scientists have speculated that a warmer atmosphere is likely to
produce stronger or more frequent El Nios, based on trends observed over the past 25
years. However, some computer models indicate El Nios may actually be weaker in a
warmer climate. This is a very complicated (but very important!) issue that will require
further research to arrive at a convincing answer.

11

According to Lee Hannah, senior scientist for climate change biology at CI, El
Nios are, in fact, getting more intense. We had some intense events in the late 1990s,
and it looks like we may be headed for some more. Whether thats an enduring pattern
or not, well only know with the passage of decades, but the prudent thing to do would
be to take some action now including getting greenhouse gases under control that
will help lessen the blow.

National Research Council study entitled Learning to Predict Climate Variations

Associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation, discovered that oscillations
occur naturally in oceans all across the world; some have a limited impact on the
regional weather and wider climate, and some have a much greater impact. El Nio and
La Nia are examples of oscillations that have a greater impact on our climate with
effects that are perhaps surprisingly felt all over the globe. In economies that are
dependent on certain weather conditions occurring regularly and on time (annual
summer rainfall, spring ice melt etc), erratic oscillations can cause problems in these
areas leading to drought. Knock on effects can lead to fish migrations and economic
hardship for areas that rely on fish stocks. Marginal areas suffer or thrive depending on
the effects of El Nio and La Nia leading to further knock on effects elsewhere

The published thesis of Julie Cole entitled Nature Climate Change, is a content
that states how El Nio and La Nia will change or affect climate change in the future is
now of tremendous importance thanks to the known effects over the last century or
more - and the conditions are still not very well understood, though the phenomenon
has been known since the early 1600s. For climate scientists, this is a grey area as to
whether it will have an impact on the climate, or whether they will be affected by climate

12

change. Some recent research has suggested that the effects of the ENSO will worsen
as the climate changes.

13

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Ropelewski C F, and Halpert M S. Weather Revolution. (New York University) 1987

Prof. Bill Gray. Tropical Meteorology. (Colorado State University), 1990.
Kevin E. Trenberth and Timothy J. Hoar. El Nio Intensity Increasing in the Central
Equatorial Pacific. ( Geophysical Research Letters), 2010.
Suarez M. J. and Schopf P. S. J. Atmosphere Science. (Washington, DC: Natl. Acad.
Press;), 1988.
Battisti D. S. and Hirst A. C. J. Atmosphere Science. (Washington, DC: Natl. Acad.
Press;), 1989.
Calverton, MD. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies. Forecast Bulletin 7,
1998.
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/plankton_elnino.html
The interrelations connecting climate phenomena such as El Nio, La Nia and
greenhouse effect. Unpublished thesis of Matthew Mason. University of Exeter, 2009.
National Research Council. Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated with El
Nino and the Southern Oscillation. Washington, DC, 1996.
Nature Climate Change. Published Thesis of Julie Cole. January 19, 2014

14

CHAPTER 5 SUMMARY, FINDINGS, CONCLUSION, AND RECOMMENDATION

This chapter presents the summary, Findings, Conclusion and

Recommendation of the present study.

SUMMARY

El Nio is a naturally occurring event in the equatorial region which causes

temporary changes in the world climate. Originally, El Nio was the name used for
warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of
South America. Now, El Nio has come to refer to a whole complex of Pacific Ocean
sea-surface temperature changes and global weather events. The ocean warming off
South America is just one of these events.

The topic of the researchers aims to give important facts and to answer the
following questions:
1.
2.
3.
4.

What is El Nio?
What are the effects of El Nio to Pawa Farmers?
When does El Nio happen in Masbate City?
What could be the impact of El Nio to the Community and Provincial
Government of Masbate?

The researchers analyze that El Nio doesnt cause too much damage to
the area of Pawa since the farmers use pure organic methods in caring for the plants.
15

The farmers introduced different ways on how they obtain pure organic fertilizers. The
farmers also stated that El Nio is not too damaging since even in the month of
February the area still experienced rain.

FINDINGS
16

The researchers come up with the following findings:

1. El Nio is a naturally occurring event in the equatorial region which causes

temporary changes in the world climate. Originally, El Nio was the name used
for warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean off the
coast of South America. Now, El Nio has come to refer to a whole complex of
Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature changes and global weather events. The
ocean warming off South America is just one of these events.
2. The effects of the El Nio:
a. A strong El Nio is often associated with flooding rains and warm weather
in Peru, drought in Indonesia, Africa, and Australia, torrential downpours
and mudslides in southern California, a mild winter in the northeast, and
fewer hurricanes in the southeast. Keep in mind that these effects aren't
guaranteed, but an El Nio makes these conditions more likely to happen.
3. El Nio doesnt affect the area of Pawa because of its less power over the area.
4. It is not yet posted when El Nio would take place in Masbate City.
5. Whenever El Nio would occur in Masbate, the number one area that would be

affected will be agriculture. Theres a big possibility that agricultural products will
be lessen. People of the community could possibly experience high air
temperature thought out the period of El Nio.

17

CONCLUSION

The researchers come up with the following conclusions:

1. The area of Pawa is not affected so much by the El Nio.

2. It is possible to have alternative methods in order to be prepared whenever El Nio will

take place within the area.

18

RECOMMENDATION

The researchers come up with the following recommendations:

1. The provincial government of Masbate should allocate funds as preparation if

ever El Nio happens in our province.
2. The Department of Agrarian Reform should conduct seminars to inform the
farmers about the things to do to be prepared during El Nio.
3. The provincial government of Masbate should also conduct seminars for the
people so that we can be prepared during El Nio.
4. It is better for the farmers to use pure organic fertilizers for their plants to grow
faster and healthy.
5. We must have other sources of our food like the fruits, vegetables and rice so
that if ever El Nio happens in our province we wont starve.

CURRICULUM VITAE
PERSONAL DETAILS
Name:

Charlene I. Abenir

Address:

Acacia Rd., Purok 3, Brgy. Nursery, Masbate City

19

Contact No.:

09091166150

Date of Birth:

August 15, 1998

Nationality:

Filipino

Fathers Name:

Clarito J. Abenir Jr.

Mothers Name:

Rubi I. Abenir

Marital Status:

Single

EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND

Elementary:

Jose Zurbito Sr. Elementary School

Year Graduated 2010 - 2011

Secondary:

Masbate National Comprehensive High School

Year Graduated 2014 - 2015

Tertiary:

Osmea Colleges
Present

PERSONAL DETAILS
Name:

Yosan B. Tumblod

Address:

Rosero Street, Masbate City

20

Contact No.:

09091000130

Date of Birth:

October 30, 1997

Nationality:

Filipino

Fathers Name:

Raf Renante Y. Tumblod Sr.

Mothers Name:

Leizl B. Tumblod

Marital Status:

Single

EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND

Elementary:

Sacro Costato School

Year Graduated 2010 - 2011

Secondary:

Masbate National Comprehensive High School

Year Graduated 2014 - 2015

Tertiary:

Osmea Colleges
Present

21