Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
February 6, 2014
Valuation. Our CY14 YE price target of $69 is approx. 12.0x our FY16
EPS est. of $5.78, which is 35 below the Street. The multiple is approx.
one turn below WMTs 3- and 5-year averages. With our subdued 5-yr.
EPS CAGR of 5%, we believe the discount in the multiple is warranted.
2013A
2014E
14 Prior
2015E
15 Prior
2016E
16 Prior
Q1
$1.09
$1.14A
$1.23
Q2
$1.18
$1.25A
$1.32
Q3
$1.10
$1.14A
$1.22
Q4
$1.67
$1.59E
$1.65
$1.71
FY (Jan 31)
$5.04
$5.11E
$5.17
$5.48
$5.69
$5.78
$6.13
$5.12E
$5.20
$5.57
$5.69
$6.13
$6.26
FY EPS
Consensus
3%
S&P 500
-5%
16%
Est. ($M)
FY13A
FY14E
FY15E
Revenue
$469.1
$475.4
$491.9
EBITDA
$36.4
$37.0
$38.2
EBIT
$27.9
$28.1
$29.1
$81
$76
$71
02-14
$66
12-13
LTM
-7%
10-13
With blood in the water, sharks are circling. We see four main threats:
traditional supermarkets, online retailers, WMTs own e-commerce efforts
and government/labor groups. If management keeps the status quo, sales
will likely be subpar, and could lead to asset deleverage over time.
YTD
WMT
08-13
Price Performance
06-13
04-13
02-13
W
ALhere
-MtoART
TORES INC.
Click
enter S
text.
(WMT$72.87 Underperform)
Scott Mushkin
(646) 582-9250
smushkin@wolferesearch.com
Michael Otway
(646) 582-9252
motway@wolferesearch.com
Brian Cullinane
(646) 582-9253
bcullinane@wolferesearch.com
Page 1 of 25
Investment Conclusion
Under siege While we have always been a great admirer of Wal-Mart, it is becoming clear through our
research that the company is losing its main competitive advantage of price leadership in its core U.S. market
and we are therefore downgrading the equity to Underperform from Peer Perform. Indeed, Wal-Marts U.S.
business is facing a serious, structural dilemma the companys core, historical, low-price advantage has
been eroding in recent years, according to our proprietary pricing surveys. This loss of price leadership
threatens the main consumer traffic driver to its flagship supercenter format (having the lowest prices on
everyday essentials) and we believe is partially responsible for the recent negative traffic trends. Another
growing contributor to Wal-Marts traffic challenges is increasing consumer willingness to purchase everyday
household items online for home delivery, according to our proprietary survey of female shoppers. These two
factors in combination, in our opinion, are likely to reduce store visits, depress sales and weigh on ROIC for the
foreseeable future in the U.S. Internationally, slow economic growth in certain of the companys operating
regions as well as the recent U.S. dollar appreciation both suggest a low likelihood that the International
business can mitigate the headwinds in the U.S in the near-term. Finally, given our view of a more subdued
sales growth outlook for Wal-Mart, the potential for the company to off-set the sales headwinds through
controlling SG&A becomes increasingly challenging, especially with e-commerce spending and
compliance/regulatory costs, which look to remain elevated over the coming years.
We are downgrading WMT to Underperform from Peer Perform and establishing a CY14 year-end price
target of $69. Wal-Mart is currently trading at 13.4x NTM consensus EPS, which is below the companys 1year avg. of 14.0x, but above its 3- and 5-year averages of 13.1x and 13.2x, respectively. Our CY14 year-end
price target is based on approx. 12.0x our downwardly revised FY16 (effectively CY15) EPS estimate of $5.78
(from $6.13). This compares to our previous fair value estimate for WMT shares in the low-to-mid $80s which
was driven by a 13.5x P/E multiple (midpoint of 13-14x). While WMT does not look overly expensive from a
historical context, we believe that the longer-term, structural hurdles facing the U.S. business and the erosion
of the companys price advantage will pressure sales and earnings growth over the next several years,
warranting a lower multiple. In addition, we have lowered our long-term EPS growth rate (5-year CAGR) to 5%
from 7%, mostly due to our lower sales outlook for the U.S. As such, we believe a multiple discount is
warranted and have applied a 12.0x P/E multiple to our FY16 EPS to arrive at our target price of $69. We
would note that this is roughly a 1-turn multiple discount to the companys 3- and 5-year historical NTM P/E
averages, with every half a turn below our 12.0x multiple target worth approximately $3 to the equity value.
WMTs equity underperformed the market in 2013 and we anticipate a continuation of this trend in
2014. WMTs equity rose 15.3% in calendar 2013, which was below the 29.6% return in the S&P 500 and also
below the return for our Wolfe Research Staples Index of 23.7%. Since the start of the new year, Wal-Marts
equity has continued to underperform the market and is down -7.4%, vs. the -5.2% return of the S&P 500 and
the -6.9% return of our Staples Index.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 2 of 25
An analysis of next six month equity performance at current trading multiples shows no historical
near-term relative equity outperformance in WMT shares. As seen in Exhibit 1 below, a historical equity
return analysis of WMT since 2000 when the equity has traded in the multiple range of 12.0x-13.99x shows
equity returns of roughly 8% on an absolute basis over the ensuing 6 months. However, relative performance
to the S&P 500 index has been more muted and the stock has only averaged flat returns over the same time
period when in the aforementioned P/E multiple range, suggesting an additional reason not to own WMTs
equity over the next six months.
Exhibit 1: WMT: Historical P/E and Weighted Avg. Return Analysis Since 2000
Absolute Performance
10.0x 11.99x
12.0x 13.99x
14.0x 15.99x
10.0x 11.99x
12.0x 13.99x
14.0x 15.99x
16.0x 17.99x
129
18
147
4%
605
157
762
23%
345
425
770
24%
63
233
296
9%
99
48
147
4%
258
506
764
23%
238
534
772
24%
120
176
296
9%
88%
12%
79%
21%
45%
55%
21%
79%
67%
33%
34%
66%
31%
69%
41%
59%
12%
-1%
11%
10%
-3%
8%
9%
-5%
1%
2%
-6%
-5%
11%
-6%
6%
15%
-8%
-0%
-10%
-7%
20%
-7%
4%
Our DCF analysis now incorporates the potential impact of the long-term structural challenges we see
in the business, suggesting less intrinsic value and a lower sales/margin environment. While we have
previously quantified what operating margin erosion could mean to our DCF given some of these structural
hurdles, we have now incorporated the potential impact of this into the modela continued erosion of U.S.
comp sales and margins for the foreseeable future. As such, our estimate of intrinsic value now stands at
approximately $81. While this is above our target price of $69, we believe that it is likely WMTs equity will
trade at a discount to intrinsic value due to near-term earnings pressures and business model uncertainty.
Under this forecast, we have modeled net sales growth of approximately 3% on average over the life of the
DCF model and a TV growth rate of 1.2%. The lower growth rate is again driven by comp sales weakness in
the U.S. operations and the increasing difficulty with which it will be to leverage costs under this scenario,
according to our analysis. We also estimate consolidated EBIT margin for the company declines from the
current 5.9% margin we estimate for FY14 to 5.3% in the terminal year. We utilize a weighted avg. cost of
capital of 7.2% and a tax rate of 32.0%.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 3 of 25
Risks
1) The biggest risk to our Underperform call would be a significant slowdown or curtailment of
corporate SG&A (e-commerce spending, regulatory/compliance costs) allowing Wal-Mart to reestablish U.S. price gaps in grocery/consumables without a material impact to profitability.
2) A strong balance sheet provides added flexibility. Wal-Marts ability to leverage its strong balance
sheet to create additional shareholder value through increased dividends and/or share repurchases is also
a risk to our Underperform rating. However, such moves could jeopardize the companys AA credit rating,
we believe. As of the end of 3Q14, leverage stood at 1.7x LTM EBITDA. Adding in leases, (total debt + PV
of operating leases) / LTM EBITDAR was slightly higher at 1.9x. This is healthy, although not too different
from Krogers 2.0x before it purchased Harris Teeter. Krogers rating is BBB by Standard & Poors.
Granted, KR does have multi-employer union obligations that are not included in this calculation, but even
so, additional leverage could cost WMT its credit ratings.
3) Wal-Marts equity has historically been a relative safe haven during more challenging economic
timesbut the safety trade is looking less and less compelling, in our opinion. According to our
research, WMTs equity performance has the highest negative correlation with change in net worth and
GDP, more than that of Kroger or the dollar stores. This has been driven by the stable nature of Wal-Marts
business selling everyday essentials, but more importantly, selling them at low prices. This focus on
everyday low price (EDLP) has historically helped drive share gains during periods of economic weakness.
However, with the price advantage for Wal-Mart shrinking in the U.S. consumables business, according to
our research, we would put forward that Wal-Mart is less likely to see outsized volume gains during more
difficult times. In fact, Kroger for example has used the years following the great recession to invest in price
across its business. Simply looking at each companys respective comp sales over the last few years tells a
compelling story (bullish for KR and bearish for WMT). See Exhibit 4. While WMTs equity will likely remain
a beneficiary of the safety trade during periods of economic weakness as investors flock to stability, we
would argue that the more compelling safety trade is KR, whose business has gotten stronger in recent
years.
Exhibit 2: Relative Equity Performance in the Period Leading Up to and Through the Great Recession
150
130
110
90
70
50
30
WMT
KR
S&P 500
Note: Prices for WMT, KR and the S&P 500 are indexed to August 31, 2007.
Source: Capital IQ
WolfeResearch.com
Page 4 of 25
Correlations
Wal-Mart U.S. Comps
WMT Performance
WMT Relative Performance
U.S.
Y/Y Change
Employment in Employment
Rate
Rate
0.58
0.15
(0.17)
0.14
0.05
(0.35)
0.76
0.20
0.37
Households &
Univ. of
Nonprofit
Michigan
Nominal Avg.
Organizations
Consumer
Weekly
Food at Home
Net Worth Real GDP Y/Y
Sentiment
Earnings
CPI
(y/y change)
Change
(0.06)
0.39
0.68
(0.31)
(0.20)
(0.25)
0.23
0.31
(0.06)
(0.12)
(0.38)
0.06
0.43
(0.76)
(0.61)
0.50
0.52
0.12
0.33
0.21
(0.00)
0.79
0.36
0.27
0.67
0.15
0.39
0.13
0.46
(0.24)
(0.02)
0.18
(0.35)
Note: Data set used in analysis is quarterly beginning in 1Q04 (Jan. 1, 2004) through most current reported quarter.
Source: Wolfe Research, company data, Capital IQ, Haver Analytics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve Board
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
KR Ex-fuel IDs
WMT US Comps
Note: ID sales for KR exclude fuel. Comp sales for both companies are presented in the closest calendar quarter for comparability.
Source: Wolfe Research, company filings
4) Valuation is not overly expensive. Wal-Mart is currently trading at 13.4x NTM consensus EPS, which is
below the companys 1-year average of 14.0x, but slightly above the companys 3- and 5-year averages of
13.1x and 13.2x, respectively. Clearly from a historical context, WMTs equity does not appear expensive,
as it is roughly a half-turn below its 1-year average and trading at only slight premiums to its longer-term
averages. In addition, our DCF does suggest an intrinsic value of approximately $81. However, relative to
KR, which is trading at 11.7x NTM consensus EPS, WMTs current multiple is over a turn and a half higher.
We believe WMTs valuation premium to KR is unjustified in large part due to the trajectory of the
respective businesses with KRs business having come out of the great recession stronger and taking
market share, while Wal-Marts U.S. business has remained challenged of late.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 5 of 25
WolfeResearch.com
Page 6 of 25
Current
vs.
Street
Forecast
-0.4%
Current
vs.
Prior
Forecast
-3.6%
Current
vs.
Street
Forecast
-1.9%
EBIT (Operating)
$29,111
$29,881
$29,380
-2.6%
-0.9%
$29,637
$31,259
$31,030
-5.2%
-4.5%
EBITDA
$38,234
$39,007
$38,599
-2.0%
-0.9%
$39,047
$40,689
$40,503
-4.0%
-3.6%
$17,587
$18,117
$17,749
-2.9%
-0.9%
$17,930
$19,050
$18,806
-5.9%
-4.7%
$5.48
$5.69
$5.57
-3.7%
-1.6%
$5.78
$6.13
$6.13
-5.8%
-5.7%
-0.5%
1.5%
NA
-2.0%
NA
-0.5%
1.5%
NA
-2.0%
NA
Exhibit 6: Key Earnings Drivers and Outlook ($mm, except per share data)
Earnings Table: Wal-Mart Consolidated
Net Sales
Cost of Sales
Operating, Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
EBIT (Operating)
Depreciation & Amortization
EBITDA
Interest Expense, Net
EBT
Income Taxes
Net Income from Continuing Ops Attributable to Wal-Mart
Net Income from Continuing Ops Attributable to Wal-Mart (Ex. Items)
Q4:14E
$127,687
$96,633
$23,457
$8,510
$2,246
$10,756
$469
$8,041
$2,573
$5,178
$5,178
2014E
$472,208
$356,802
$90,497
$28,121
$8,846
$36,967
$2,132
$25,937
$8,439
$16,754
$16,789
2015E
$488,483
$369,370
$93,438
$29,111
$9,123
$38,234
$2,071
$27,040
$8,653
$17,587
$17,587
2016E
$503,730
$381,277
$96,355
$29,637
$9,410
$39,047
$2,020
$27,617
$8,838
$17,930
$17,930
$1.59
$1.59
$1.60
$5.10
$5.11
$5.12
$5.48
$5.48
$5.57
$5.78
$5.78
$6.13
3,255
3,284
3,208
Growth Rates
Total Net Sales
EBIT (Operating)
EBITDA
Diluted EPS from Continuing Ops Attributable to Wal-Mart (Ex. Items)
0.5%
-1.0%
-0.2%
-4.8%
1.3%
0.8%
1.5%
1.5%
Margins
Gross Profit Margin (Ex. Membership and Other Income) (As % of Net Sales)
Operating, Selling, General & Administrative Expenses (As % of Net Sales)
EBIT (Operating) Margin
EBITDA Margin
24.3%
18.4%
6.6%
8.4%
Change in Margin
Gross Profit Margin (Ex. Membership and Other Income) (As % of Net Sales)
Operating, Selling, General & Administrative Expenses (As % of Net Sales)
EBIT (Operating) Margin
EBITDA Margin
Effective Tax Rate
-0.05%
0.13%
-0.11%
-0.06%
32.0%
Q4:14E
2014E
2015E
2016E
$76,016
$6,525
$278,989
$22,498
$284,123
$22,923
$289,681
$23,299
Walmart International
Constant Currency Sales
Constant Currency EBIT (Operating)
$38,915
$2,380
$140,567
$6,755
$146,488
$7,039
$153,895
$7,318
$13,172
$509
$50,593
$2,046
$51,887
$2,137
$53,441
$2,147
($873)
($3,015)
($2,985)
($3,129)
3,103
-0.5%
-
-0.6%
0.7%
-0.5%
0.9%
-0.5%
2.0%
3.4%
3.5%
3.4%
7.2%
3.1%
1.8%
2.1%
5.4%
Margins
Walmart U.S.
Walmart International (Constant Currency)
Sam's Club (Ex. Fuel)
8.6%
6.1%
3.9%
8.1%
4.8%
4.0%
8.1%
4.8%
4.1%
8.0%
4.8%
4.0%
24.4%
19.2%
5.9%
7.8%
24.4%
19.1%
5.9%
7.8%
24.3%
19.1%
5.8%
7.7%
Change in Margin
Walmart U.S.
Walmart International (Constant Currency)
Sam's Club (Ex. Fuel)
0.05%
-0.15%
0.10%
0.22%
-0.22%
0.20%
0.00%
-0.00%
0.07%
-0.03%
-0.05%
-0.10%
0.06%
0.12%
-0.03%
0.02%
32.5%
-0.06%
-0.04%
0.00%
-0.00%
32.0%
-0.08%
-0.08%
-0.07%
32.0%
WolfeResearch.com
Page 7 of 25
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Note: The markets price premium is an average of the individual retailers we visit in each market. Our baskets contain fast turning and high household
penetration items. When an item is not available during our visit (cannot be found or the package size has changed), we remove this item from the
comparable basket. Philadelphia competitors include Genuardi's, Wegmans, Giant, Acme, Target and ShopRite. Houston competitors include HEB, Kroger,
Target and Randalls.
Source: Wolfe Research
WolfeResearch.com
Page 8 of 25
15.0%
12.0%
10.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Nov-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Note: The markets price premium is an average of the individual retailers we visit in each market. Our baskets contain fast turning and high household
penetration items. When an item is not available during our visit (cannot be found or the package size has changed), we remove this item from the
comparable basket. Chicago competitors include Dominicks, Jewel, Meijer, Target, Marianos and Food 4 Less. Atlanta competitors include Kroger, Target
and Publix.
Source: Wolfe Research
Exhibit 9: Houston Pricing Survey: Avg. Comparable Basket (Indexed to Jan. 2013) and Current Premium/ (Discount) to Wal-Mart
1.0%
15.0%
10.5%
0.0%
10.0%
-1.0%
4.1%
5.0%
1.5%
-2.0%
0.0%
-1.9%
-3.0%
Jan
2013
Mar
2013
May
2013
July
2013
Sept
2013
Nov
2013
Jan
2014
-5.0%
HEB
Kroger
Target
Randalls
(Safeway)
Premium/ (Discount) to Wal-Mart (Jan. 2013)
Note: The markets basket is an average of the individual retailers we visit. The percent change in the basket is compared to a base basket from the year
ago time period. Our baskets contain fast turning and high household penetration items. When an item is not available during our visit (cannot be found or
the package size has changed), we remove this item from the comparable basket.
Source: Wolfe Research
Our proprietary pricing surveys have been some of our most reliable data. Developed during the last
decade in consultation with many industry contacts and refined over the last several years, our surveys focus
on roughly 75 fast-turning and/or high household penetration items such as milk, Cheerios and Tide.
Concentrating on fast-turning/high household penetration products provides a good measure on how
consumers perceive a chains price position versus others in an area and it also reveals the competitive
conditions in a market. We monitor six cities, including Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia
and Washington D.C., visiting three cities one month and the other three the next month. We visit one store per
chain per market; however we do spot check other stores in a chain occasionally to make sure the data set is
consistent. All the research is done directly by the Wolfe Research Staples Retailing team and no outside
vendors help us collect the data. The reason for this methodology is that there can be various nuances when
recording prices that third parties have troubling discerning. In addition, being in stores often helps in other
areas of our research such as understanding store execution. The prices recorded are the lowest available
shelf price. For traditional supermarkets, this includes frequent shopper deals, but excludes any direct to
consumer coupons and gasoline discounts.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 9 of 25
The issue of lost price leadership, however, is not just in consumables. Although consumables do make
up 55% of the companys sales and are the main reason many shoppers visit Wal-Marts flagship supercenter
operations, our snap-shot survey of electronic and media items also found little price difference between WalMart, Best Buy and Amazon. When these items are added to the consumables area, roughly 66% of WalMarts sales volumes are in merchandise where consumers can find similar pricing at other outlets. The price
issue does not end here, however, as structural changes in the pharmacy business (more customers having
insurance coverage) have diminished the value of direct-to-consumer low prices for pharmaceuticals. While
prescription drugs do not make up all of the 11% of sales Wal-Mart classifies as health and wellness, we
believe it is the majority. Adding this category to consumables, media and electronics brings the percentage of
items sold at Wal-Mart where the company no longer exhibits pricing advantages to over 70%.
Exhibit 10: Electronics Pricing Survey and Electronics & Media Pricing Survey
$3,950
$4,050
$3,830.91
$3,850
$3,850
$3,750
$3,750
$3,650
$3,932.87
$3,950
$3,583.74
$3,586.78
$3,539.88
$3,550
$3,684.77
$3,682.14
Walmart
Amazon
$3,650
$3,550
$3,450
$3,450
$3,350
$3,350
Walmart
Amazon
Target
Best Buy
Target
Note: These surveys were conducted using the online stores for Walmart, Amazon, Target & Best Buy. Each basket contains the exact same items. Our
electronics pricing survey basket includes 12 top selling items including: Apple iPad, Samsung LED TV, Xbox One, Beats by Dr. Dre headphones, Google
Chromecast, Grand Theft Auto V, and Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 DVD, to name a few. The Electronics & Media/Toys basket includes the same
items in the electronics basket, as well as several toys, a Monopoly board game and a top-selling book.
Source: Wolfe Research
WolfeResearch.com
Page 10 of 25
Three Strategic Decisions and a Challenge Have Led to the Diminishing of Price Leadership in
the U.S.
Decision #1: Letting margins rise in the U.S. Wal-Marts U.S. business has seen its operating margin move
higher over the years, despite its increasing mix of consumables and higher corporate SG&A spending. The
company has grown its grocery business (food and consumables) to 55% of net sales in the U.S., up from 47%
in 2008. This has undoubtedly placed downward pressure on profit margins given the lower relative margin
from these types of items. We estimate corporate SG&A spending will rise to approximately $3 billion in
FY14E, up roughly $1 billion from just two years ago. That said, Wal-Mart has taken substantial costs out of
the system, particularly in the U.S., a feat they have accomplished even during certain years of difficult sales. It
is this squeezing of costs which has been largely responsible for driving the operating margin improvement in
the U.S., but it has also been responsible, we believe, for some execution issues that have developed (see
discussion on Page 14).
Exhibit 11: Walmart U.S. FY13 % of Net Sales by Category and Grocery Sales as % of Total
Apparel
7%
Home
7%
56%
54%
53%
53%
2010A
2011A
55%
55%
2012A
2013A
52%
Hardlines
9%
50%
49%
48%
47%
46%
Health &
Wellness
11%
Grocery
55%
44%
42%
2008A
Entertainment
11%
2009A
7.2%
7.0%
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
WolfeResearch.com
Page 11 of 25
Decision #2: Chasing online retailers: Wal-Mart is making substantial investments to grow its e-commerce
platform and has noted that this would depress EPS this fiscal year by an incremental $0.10. While the
incremental investment in FY15 should be less than in FY14, our read is that spending in this area is likely to
remain elevated over the coming years as e-commerce becomes an increasingly important channel for
consumer spending. That said, we have concerns that this spending not only puts pressure on Walmart U.S. to
deliver earnings, but may also cannibalize sales from the current store base, pressure asset productivity and
ROIC.
Decision #3: International expansion: Wal-Marts move overseas has seen mixed results over a long period
of time, with noteworthy trouble areas including Germany, Japan, and more recently headwinds in China and
Brazil where the company has elected to shutter stores. And while the promise of faster growth internationally
has proven seductive, the results as well as the benefits to shareholders are much less clear, in our opinion.
What has been clear is that the companys foreign operations are performing below expectations and have
been responsible for much of the increase in regulatory spending over the last 12-18 months due to FCPA
(Foreign Corrupt Practices Act) issues. With little change expected in this dynamic over the next 6-12 months,
the pressure again falls on Wal-Marts large U.S. operations to deliver EBIT.
The Challenge: The size of the company makes it a target of the government and labor advocacy
groups. As Wal-Mart has gotten bigger, so too have its headaches regarding its labor and business practices.
Today, Wal-Mart spends a good deal of time and money in hopes of easing Washington scrutiny, bolstering its
corporate image and assuaging labor groups. But the more Wal-Mart gives, the more these groups seem to
want, suggesting a never-ending spiral in corporate SG&A expenses. For example, just as the company hoped
to be putting the worst of the FCPA and compliance-related costs behind it, the NLRB (National Labor
Relations Board) has started procedures against the company. This is real money: costs for the FCPA and
related regulatory/compliance enhancements have amounted to $224mm in FY14 YTD and are anticipated to
total upwards of $300mm for the full year. Of the $224mm in costs thus far, we expect about 40% to be
recurring.
From FCPA to NLRB. As mentioned, in mid-January of this year the NLRB filed a complaint against Wal-Mart
regarding employee rights. The issue revolves around attempts to unionize Wal-Marts operations and
activities by certain employees to participate in random work-stoppages to protest Wal-Marts pay and working
conditions. It appears that the NLRB wants to push the action against WMT as a test case for these types of
employee actions. While time will tell what will come of the above complaint by the NLRB, we simply take it as
another signal that upward pressure is likely to remain on the expense line for the foreseeable future. In FY15,
we are anticipating unallocated corporate dollars to remain flattish around $3 billion, given a decrease of
certain FCPA-related costs, but a rise in other related costs. That said, the unallocated expense bucket is
somewhat of a catchall for many ancillary corporate costs and remains difficult to forecast.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 12 of 25
30.0%
25.0%
$3,000
20.0%
$2,500
15.0%
$2,000
10.0%
5.0%
$1,500
$1,000
-5.0%
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014E
Y/Y Change
These Strategic Decisions and the Challenge Have Created a Great Need for U.S. EBIT
Turning lemons into lemonade. Bill Simon (EVP, President and CEO, Walmart U.S.) has been under
pressure in recent years to produce EBIT and lower costs given the swift acceleration of expenses in corporate
SG&A and he delivered on that goal. In fact, EBIT growth in the U.S. has outstripped sales growth since
2010, even when sales have disappointed. While better productivity is usually a good thing, Wal-Marts has
come despite stagnant sales per square ft. over the last few years. With many costs fixed, normally higher
productivity in a retail company comes from leveraging better sales per square foot over the fixed asset base.
This has not been the case for Wal-Mart, as better productivity has come from driving down more variable
expenses. This is not always bad, but for Wal-Mart it appears to have led to some spotty execution, further
opening the door to competitors, in our opinion.
Exhibit 14: Walmart U.S. Sales / Sq. Foot and EBIT / Sq. Foot
$436
$35
$434
$35
$432
$34
$430
$34
$428
$33
$426
$33
$424
$32
$422
$32
$420
2012A
2013A
U.S. Sales / Sq. Foot
2014E
2012A
2013A
2014E
WolfeResearch.com
Page 13 of 25
The need for cost savings has caused execution to suffer, in our opinion. Walmart U.S.s relentless focus
on costs does seem to have taken some toll on in-store conditions and stock levels. This is clearly an area that
is subject to differences of opinion, and it is easier to be forgiven by customers when a lot of money is being
saved, but our store visits over the last six months show a repeating pattern of stocking issues in many
departments in the store. This creates a couple of issues: first, if an item is not on the shelf, you cannot sell it,
so out-of-stocks depress sales. Second, if the stores are out-of-stock, with long cash register lines and prices
that are just in-line with other retailers there really is no reason for consumers to shop the store.
Exhibit 15: Wal-Mart Out-of-Stocks
Could more labor help solve the execution issues potentially. SG&A savings, at least to some degree,
appear to have come from lowering the amount of labor in the stores. While this is not necessarily a bad thing
as it may indicate that Wal-Mart is improving business practices and can now deploy less labor to get the same
results, the spotty store conditions and execution suggest at least some of the reduction in labor has led to
operational issues.
Exhibit 16: Walmart U.S. Employees and Square Footage (in thousands)
1,450
750,000
1,425
725,000
1,400
700,000
1,375
675,000
1,350
650,000
1,325
625,000
1,300
600,000
1,275
1,250
575,000
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
WolfeResearch.com
Page 14 of 25
These Dynamics Are Leading to Four Main Threats to Wal-Marts Core U.S. Business
With blood in the water, the sharks are circling there appear to be four main threats to Wal-Marts U.S.
business: 1) The traditional supermarkets (both good operators and historically weaker ones) have reduced
their price gaps to Wal-Mart in recent years; 2) Online retailers; 3) Wal-Marts own e-commerce business which
is cannibalizing Wal-Marts retail stores; 4) Government / labor groups.
The traditional supermarkets: Wal-Mart, as discussed earlier in the report, has let its price leadership in the
key consumables area be eroded by superior traditional operators such as HEB, Wegmans and Kroger. This
dynamic has been going on for years, but has seemingly accelerated during the last three. The best example
of this is with Kroger, Wal-Marts biggest competitor in the U.S. consumables market.
A look at Krogers margins tells a compelling story one that is not so good for Wal-Mart. Years of
price investment by Kroger have helped the company narrow/eliminate its price gap to Wal-Mart. As we have
noted, including Krogers direct-to-consumer discounting and fuel rewards programs, we believe KR is priced
at or below Wal-Mart in many markets on consumables. This has not always been the case, but is rather due
to years of price investments and a lot of profit pain too. However, Krogers efforts to sharpen prices over the
last decade have put the company in an advantageous competitive position and one that is clearly leading to
sales and market share gains.
Exhibit 17: Comparable Basket in Houston (Wal-Mart and Kroger) and Krogers EBIT Margin
$185.00
3.4%
3.2%
$175.00
3.0%
2.8%
$165.00
2.6%
$155.00
2.4%
2.2%
Wal-Mart
Kroger
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
$145.00
2.0%
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
Note: The baskets above contain the exact same 50 fast turning and high household penetration items over the time frame shown. When an item is not
available during our visit (cannot be found or the package size has changed), we remove this item from the comparable basket. Ex fuel, Krogers FIFO EBIT
margin in FY11, FY12 and FY13, was 2.9%, 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively. On average over the last 3 years, the delta between KRs w/fuel EBIT margin and
ex-fuel margin was roughly 40 bps.
Source: Wolfe Research, company filings
Its not only the strong operators that are challenging the mighty Wal-Mart, but some of the historically
weaker ones as well. Over the last 12-24 months, other, generally weaker, traditional operators such as the
Cerberus-owned operations and Delhaize have aggressively lowered prices and appear to be seeing good
results (at least on volume). A chart can say a thousand words and the chart in Exhibit 18 on the next page of
the Chicago market certainly meets the goal. In Chicago, the average price gap to Wal-Mart has compressed
rapidly with most competitors now below 5%. Jewel, once the consistent high price option in Chicago,
frequently with prices 20% over Wal-Mart, is now down to roughly 2% over Wal-Mart in our December survey.
Our data strongly indicates shoppers are noticing the lower prices, with many of the chains that have invested
in price seeing good, positive volume growth, while WMT is now seeing negative comp store dry grocery
volumes, according to our industry sources.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 15 of 25
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
$190.00
$180.00
$170.00
$160.00
$150.00
Acme
Sep-13
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Dec-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Dec-13
Jun-10
Dec-12
Sep-10
Dec-11
Dec-09
Nov-10
Mar-10
$140.00
Wal-Mart
Note: The markets basket is an average of the individual retailers we visit. The baskets above contain the exact same 50 fast turning and high household
penetration items over the time frame shown. When an item is not available during our visit (cannot be found or the package size has changed), we remove
this item from the comparable basket. Chicago competitors include Dominicks, Jewel, Meijer, Target, Marianos and Food 4 Less.
Source: Wolfe Research
Online retailers: More ubiquitous consumables appear destined to be purchased online. Our proprietary
consumer survey of women suggests that more non-perishable, everyday items may be purchased online
through companies such as Amazon over the coming years. The willingness to consider online is quite high in
categories such as household chemicals, personal care/beauty, paper/plastic products and packaged foods.
Many of these same categories are what Wal-Mart uses to drive trips to its supercenters. Retail is all about
asset productivity and this means Wal-Mart needs to increase trips to its stores, thereby increasing sales and
opportunities for additional purchases. The main avenue for doing this is attracting customers with its low
prices for frequently needed everyday items. In fact, our research suggests consumers main reason for going
to a mass merchant like Wal-Mart is to purchase these items. The more sales of these items that take place
online, the fewer the trips likely to be at the companys stores.
Exhibit 19: Which Products Would You be Interested in Buying from an Online Retailer?
Educated
Millennial
Millennial
Women (All)
General
Population
Answer
Household items (laundry detergent, cleaning products)
85.6%
87.8%
86.5%
Personal Care & Beauty items (toothpaste, deodorant, shaving items, makeup)
87.8%
82.2%
88.0%
75.1%
81.7%
79.8%
74.6%
78.2%
71.5%
71.3%
73.6%
73.3%
56.9%
60.9%
66.9%
Baby supplies
34.3%
43.1%
22.7%
34.3%
31.0%
28.5%
21.0%
25.9%
24.5%
20.4%
23.4%
20.9%
14.4%
12.7%
17.5%
8.8%
11.7%
14.1%
Note: N= 500 Educated Millennial women, 500 Millennial women, 1,000 women in general population. Millennials represent the group of the U.S. population
born between the years of 1982 and 2001. Educated Millennial women have graduated from 4 year colleges. The 500 Millennial women are a different
sample group that is spread by age (18-32), income and education level that are representative of the U.S. female population in that age range. The general
population of women is also spread across age (18-65), income and education levels that are representative of the U.S. female population.
Source: Wolfe Research
WolfeResearch.com
Page 16 of 25
So far, WMT has a solid price advantage in grocery relative to online retailers. In fact, our pricing survey
of Amazon reveals significant hurdles remain for replicating the pricing and experience of an in-store shop for
everyday consumable products. Amazon was priced at roughly a 20% premium to Wal-Mart and this excludes
charges for Prime membership. In addition, it still appears early in development as many items require bulk
purchases to get good prices. For example, one box of Pop-Tarts was $7.85, well above Wal-Marts price of
$1.98. If we wanted a case (which included 12 items) from Amazon, the price drops to $1.88. Frozen and fresh
items are not currently practical to purchase in our (Connecticut) market. Our pricing survey data is available
upon request.
Wal-Marts own e-commerce efforts: Given the aforementioned research that consumers are pretty
interested in buying everyday products online, it seems smart at first blush for Wal-Mart to invest aggressively
in online capabilities. Upon further review, however, we believe Wal-Mart is potentially making a sizable
mistake. First, these investments take money away from the core U.S. business, money that can be used to
lower prices and invest in infrastructure, making it harder for Amazon to match Wal-Mart on prices over time.
Second, the online consumables model remains unproven economically, suggesting a go-slow approach is in
order. There is simply nothing wrong with observing Amazons activities, especially as the customer base is
somewhat different. Third, and most importantly, we view the companys efforts in e-commerce, particularly in
consumables, to be potentially cannibalistic to sales and detrimental to profits. If customers that would have
otherwise come into the stores now choose to shop online, flow to the store assets is reduced. Traffic is the
most important factor for Wal-Mart, as more traffic means more opportunities for upselling. A supercenter
works in large part because you drive a customer through the stores power alleys where smart merchants set
out displays with DVDs and other intriguing impulse purchase items. The more customers forgo stores to
shop online instead, the more Wal-Mart disenfranchises its own retail assets, in our opinion.
Exhibit 20: Walmart U.S. Comp Traffic
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
Government/labor groups: As was discussed earlier in the report, there appears to be no end in sight for
Wal-Marts rising costs of doing business as represented by the FCPA actions, as well as the recent NLRB
complaint. Further, labor groups, especially the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union,
have been actively trying to unionize Wal-Mart and have engaged over the years in a broad campaign to point
out what they believe are poor wages and working conditions at the company through groups such as Wake
Up Walmart and Our Walmart. Whether these grievances have merit is somewhat beside the point for equity
investors, as this campaign against the company looks to continue/accelerate and has an administration in
Washington that is friendly to the cause. As such, expenses will likely increase as Wal-Mart is forced to defend
itself, leaving less money for price investments.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 17 of 25
WolfeResearch.com
Page 18 of 25
$289,681
55.0%
$159,324
$289,681
55.0%
$159,324
$159,324
66.7%
$106,216
$159,324
100.0%
$159,324
$106,216
25.0%
$26,554
$159,324
25.0%
$39,831
$26,554
10.0%
$2,655
$39,831
10.0%
$3,983
0.9%
1.4%
Translating the structural issues what a large scale price investment could mean to the P&L. While
we outline on the next page what we view as the most appropriate long-term course of action for the company
and its U.S. operations, in this paragraph we have also attempted to quantify what a large scale price
investment could mean for sales, profits and earnings. In the short-run, a price investment in the magnitude of
just over $2.5 billion would reduce FY16 EPS (first year of implementation for illustrative purposes) by upwards
of $0.50, according to our calculations, and lower EPS to $5.25 from our current FY16 EPS estimate of $5.78.
The benefit of the price investment would be a jump-start to sales, although there is typically some delay in
customer response and so we have modeled a greater benefit in years two and three than in year one. Under
this scenario, we forecast comp sales for Walmart U.S. of 0.5%, 3.0% and 2.5% in those first three years
following a large-scale investment in price. Perhaps what is most important for improving intrinsic value is the
long-term sales trajectory. Longer-term, we estimate comp sales grow in the low single-digit range (+2.5%).
This is well above the comp trajectory we see if the company were to continue down the current path and let
price gaps with competitors in consumables continue to shrink, something we estimate could lead to slightly
negative comps over time. From a margin perspective in WMTs U.S ops, $2.5 billion translates to roughly 90
bps in EBIT margin contraction in year one. However, given the more robust comp sales outlook anticipated
following the price investment, we forecast slight margin improvement as better sales, combined with a
reinvestment loop lead to slight SG&A leverage. Long-term, we arrive at an EBIT margin in the U.S. of 7.5%.
Short-term pain and long-term gain suggests higher intrinsic value for the equity long-term. Indeed, a
look at our discounted cash flow model under the above scenario of implementing a larger scale price
investment suggests much higher intrinsic value for Wal-Marts equity of approximately $110. This is well
above the DCF value of $81 associated with our current model, which largely reflects the status quo (i.e.
continuing down the same path and seeing the companys price advantage erode further in consumables in the
U.S., which we view as detrimental to comp sales and margin long-term). While we believe there is a sweet
spot in terms of the price investment strategy (as we outline on the next page), there nevertheless appears to
be merit over the long-term from a valuation perspective, in our opinion, of taking the steps to re-establish the
companys core, price advantage. Our margin investment model is available upon request.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 19 of 25
WolfeResearch.com
Page 20 of 25
WolfeResearch.com
Page 21 of 25
67.0%
10.25%
66.5%
9.25%
66.0%
8.25%
65.5%
7.25%
65.0%
64.5%
6.25%
64.0%
5.25%
4.25%
Dec-07
63.5%
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
63.0%
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13
CPI Food at Home
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
WolfeResearch.com
Page 22 of 25
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
Q4-2011
Argentina
Q1-2012
Brazil
Q2-2012
Chile
Q3-2012
China
Mexico
Q4-2012
South Africa
Q1-2013
Q2-2013
United Kindom
Q3-2013
Canada
Japan
Note: Growth rate is compared to the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted.
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development
Currency headwinds are likely to weigh on near-term results. While currency ebbs between a benefit and
a headwind given the many countries in which Wal-Mart operates, foreign currencies are currently a fairly
sizeable headwind for the company. While we tend to look through the currency to the F/X neutral
performance, this is simply another factor that looks to be negatively impacting sales and profitability in the
international segment currently.
WolfeResearch.com
Page 23 of 25
DISCLOSURE SECTION
Analyst Certification:
The analyst of Wolfe Research, LLC primarily responsible for this research report whose name appears first on the front page of this
research report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research
analysts personal views about the subject securities or issuers and (ii) no part of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report.
Important Disclosures:
Wolfe Research, LLC Fundamental Valuation Methodology:
Company:
Fundamental Valuation Methodology:
WMT
Forward P/E; Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Wolfe Research, LLC Fundamental Target Price Risks:
Company:
Fundamental Target Price Risks:
WMT
A significant slowdown/curtailment of SG&A (e-commerce, regulatory/compliance costs)
allowing the company to re-establish U.S. pricing gaps in grocery/consumables without
material profitability impact; A strong balance sheet provides some flexibility for dividends
and share repurchases; WMT has historically been a safety trade, but this seems less
compelling, in our opinion; Valuation is not expensive
Wolfe Research, LLC Research Disclosures:
Company:
Research Disclosures:
WMT
None
Other Disclosures:
Wolfe Research, LLC Fundamental Stock Ratings Key:
Outperform (OP):
The security is projected to outperform analyst's industry coverage universe over the next
12 months.
The security is projected to perform approximately in line with analyst's industry coverage
universe over the next 12 months.
The security is projected to underperform analyst's industry coverage universe over the
next 12 months.
Wolfe Research, LLC uses a relative rating system using terms such as Outperform, Peer Perform and Underperform (see definitions
above). Please carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Wolfe Research, LLC research. In addition, since Wolfe Research, LLC
research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views, please carefully read Wolfe Research, LLC research in its
entirety and not infer the contents from the ratings alone. In all cases, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment
advice and any investment decisions should be based upon individual circumstances and other considerations.
Wolfe Research, LLC Sector Weighting System:
Market Overweight (MO):
Market Weight (MW):
Market Underweight (MU):
Expect the industry to outperform the primary market index for the region (S&P 500 in the
U.S.) by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
Expect the industry to perform approximately in line with the primary market index for the
region (S&P 500 in the U.S.) over the next 12 months.
Expect the industry to underperform the primary market index for the region (S&P 500 in
the U.S.) by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
Wolfe Research, LLC Distribution of Fundamental Stock Ratings (As of December 31, 2013):
Outperform:
Peer Perform:
Underperform:
44%
42%
14%
WolfeResearch.com
Page 24 of 25
WolfeResearch.com
Page 25 of 25