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Visualizing
Success
Using Positive Risk Diagrams to
Achieve Business Objectives
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Full View
T&E product
development and
marketing
Director of T&E
RPQ phase 2
delivery
Business
Leader for T&E
Cause
RESISTANCE
Bad
Event
Cause
Condition
Effect
Condition
Effect
Condition
Bowtie Diagram
MOMENTUM
Good
Event
Benefit
Benefit
Benefit
Moar Diagram
The theory and origins of these diagrams will be explained in the following pages
The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.
Risk environment
descriptor
Risk Environment
Owner
Goal or target
descriptor
Goal Owner
T&E product
development and
marketing
Director of T&E
RPQ phase 2
delivery
Business
Leader for T&E
Condition for
delivery
Condition for
delivery
Benefit
Project
Delivery
Benefit
Disbenefit
Update
management
in seconds
ENDORSEMENTS
VP Enterprise Risk at a major West
Coast USA university: Wonderful
Visualizing Success presentation
on LinkedIn!! May I please have a
copy of the presentation to share
with some of my Administration
and Finance colleagues?
MD of Business Intelligence at a
large American healthcare company:
we are starting a consulting
practice to help our clients manage
their critical functions better. I have
been trying to envision a means of
communicating what you call positive
risk in a simple paradigm and believe
you have done a masterful job.
WARNING!
words ahead
You are about to view a presentation containing intuitive
diagrams and graphics. It also contains just enough words
to present a basic theory with supporting evidence.
GLOSSARY
positive risk
New Method
Moar Diagram
Satellite View
the high level representation of a Moar Diagram, designed for senior management
ECRM
Event Centred Risk Modelling: a new paradigm offering two vital management tools
Designing Success
The New Method creates simple, data-rich models of goal-focused activities,
such as business strategies, project delivery and the pursuit of targets.
The graphical presentation
of these models, known as
Moar Diagrams, increase
the probabilities of success
by capturing the whole
upside environment,
enabling real-time
management and
communication of plans,
actions, risks and progress.
Subsidiary
Company
migrated to
Maconomy
successfully
IT Manager
The Theory
The Theory
The Theory
The Theory
The negative
consequences
Cause
Cause
Cause
Effect
Bad
Event
Effect
Controls
Effect
Moderate
Poor
Causes or
threats
Two of the many reasons why Bowtie diagrams have been successful:
1) The diagrams are both
convenient decision-making
tools and suitable for
sharing (without
modification) with nonspecialist stakeholders.
Key learning
from the
Bowtie
method:
Visualizing Success
This presentation reveals how the Bowtie method has
been successfully adapted to visualize positive risk in
any commercial, organisational or personal context.
This transformation was undertaken in 2013-14 by
PJ Moar with assistance from professionals in the
business consulting and risk management sectors.
The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.
The positive
outcomes
Benefit
Condition
Condition
Condition
Good
Event
Benefit
Benefit
Drivers
Moderate
Poor
Bowtie
method
New
Method
Visualization
Technique
Origins
Bowtie diagrams
1980s
Moar Diagrams
Satellite Views
Applicable Sectors
All - especially the
hazardous industries
All especially
corporate management
2013-14
and the management
consulting industry
Recommended
Software Tools
BowtieXP by CGE Risk
No commercial
products available
What is a Condition?
Each Condition is a high level sub-deliverable or
part-deliverable of the objective. Examples:
Condition
Infrastructure built
Funds secured
Marketing campaign designed
Condition
Typically between 2 and 8 Conditions are identified
in each model.
Condition
Each condition is necessary, but not sufficient to achieve the goal.
All conditions must be satisfied to ensure success.
Goal, target or
project deliverable
Business
transition to
new finance
system
Users trained
All functionality tested successfully
Funds for acquisition secured
Target company selected
Agreement of the Board obtained
Warehouse stock optimised
Marketing campaign designed
Delivery logistics contracted
Acquire
company in
new market
Successful
launch of online
retail site
What is a Driver?
A driver is any type of resource, capability,
process or action directed (by management)
towards achieving a specific objective.
A technical solution
The analysis of data
A training programme
Risk environment
descriptor
Benefit
Condition
Goal
Benefit
Condition
Disbenefit
Positive
effector
Projects
Successful delivery is the goal
Condition for
delivery
Condition for
delivery
Benefit
Project
Delivery
Benefit
Disbenefit
Condition for
delivery
Benefit
Condition for
delivery
Project
Delivery
Benefit
Condition for
delivery
Disbenefit
Condition for
delivery
As illustrated in the
previous diagrams,
the business case
remains in focus
throughout the
project lifecycle.
A positive
effector
An expected
benefit
An expected
disbenefit
COSTS
Risk
environment
descriptor
Goal or
target
Driver
descriptor
Control
descriptor
Low
Moderate
High
Weak
Non-Essential
Moderate
Desirable
Strong
Essential
Moderate
Future Start
Good
Unknown
Completed Task
Diagram Exemplar
2015 PJ Moar (peter.moar@gmail.com) version 3.11
Goal or target
descriptor
Goal Owner
All
ownership
is clearly assigned
Real-World Example:
A small business project
T&E product
development and
marketing
Director of T&E
RPQ phase 2
delivery
Business
Leader for T&E
Project to achieve
the financial
integration of a
subsidiary business.
Subsidiary
Company
migrated to
Maconomy
successfully
IT Manager
Theoretical Example:
Strategic
business growth
and development
Business Leader
Acquire target
company in new
geographical
market
Head of
Acquisitions
Underperforming
driver
Underperforming
control
A negative
outcome
High cost
controls and drivers
https://maildr.moar.com/owa
Satellite Views
for Senior Management
The Satellite View is a high level
representation of a Moar Diagram.
All text and non-essential detail is
excluded.
Software Options
This type of positive risk modelling is not
currently supported by a dedicated software
tool. However, an adapted version of
BowtieXP (by CGE) has been developed.
Risk environment
descriptor
Risk Environment
Owner
Goal or target
descriptor
Goal Owner
Visualizing Success
For high quality diagrams use graphical tools, such as MS PowerPoint or Visio
Workshop Techniques
and Outputs
2015 PJ Moar
peter.moar@gmail.com
version 3.11
Cause
RESISTANCE
Bad
Event
Cause
Bowtie Diagram
Condition
Effect
Condition
Effect
Condition
MOMENTUM
Good
Event
Benefit
Benefit
Benefit
Moar Diagram
Personal
Models
SUMMARY
The New Method of positive risk modelling aims to maximise the probability of successful
outcomes in goal-focused environments.
Satellite Views offer senior management an informative, high level insight to the contents
of a Moar Diagram.
Project initiation or scoping using the Method becomes a fast, outcome-focused activity.
Small projects may be managed and communicated through a single Moar Diagram.
A new analytical paradigm has emerged: Event Centred Risk Modelling (ECRM).
The PowerPoint Show of this presentation is available upon request.
Acknowledgements
The following business and risk management professionals kindly offered objective
and constructive feedback during the development of this new tool:
FEEDBACK
http://uk.linkedin.com/in/pmoar
Thanks
The ECRM paradigm offers a unique commercial opportunity for software developers.
One simple modelling tool could supply four large markets:
Management consulting
Corporate management
Project management
Risk management
Moar Diagrams
Visualizing Success
The End
This presentation may be freely distributed and shared. However, no part may be sold or published
without the authors express permission. Please contact Peter Moar: peter.moar@gmail.com
Version Control: This is version 3.11, which may not be the latest. The latest version will be found on
Slideshare, accessible via this shortened link: http://tinyurl.com/Viz-Success