Regular Paper

Design-to-Market:
Integrating Conceptual
Design and Marketing
Andreas Vollerthun*
Technical University of Munich, Institute of Astronautics, Boltzmannstrasse 15, 85748 Garching, Germany
INTEGRATING CONCEPTUAL DESIGN AND MARKETING

Received 7 September 2001; Accepted 21 May 2002

ABSTRACT
This article presents an approach to integrate conceptual design and marketing by using a
systems engineering approach. A methodology is applied that has successfully linked conceptual design with cost modeling to now also integrate marketing considerations. By combining technical product models and cost models with a market model in one integrated
model, an added value is generated: Systems engineers can analyze entire business cases.
The paper describes how the market model works, shows the interfaces to conceptual design
and cost modeling, and discusses the integration into the overall design process. The full
model is applied to the development of the European satellite navigation system Galileo.
Development teams can easily change parameters in the design and analyze the effects of
these changes on, for example, market revenues. To quantify differences among design
alternatives, two approaches are considered: (a) a measure of effectiveness (market robustness) and (b) cash-flow curves to model, simulate, and evaluate entire business cases. 2002
Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng 5: 315326, 2002
Key words: conceptual design; product model; cost model; market model; market robustness;
business case; cash flow analysis; model based systems engineering

1. INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

place new products in a commercial market. Common

problems can be a too long time-to-market and a too
high price, but most of all products do not meet essential
customer requirements of the targeted market segment.
For companies developing products or services that
rely on the use of satellites the competition with terrestrial applications is especially challenging since the
obvious difference between development times for
space hardware and market cycles is so fundamental.

The motivation for this paper is common problems that

companies across all industries have, when trying to

* E-mail: A.Vollerthun@Lrt.mw.tum.de.
Systems Engineering, Vol. 5, No. 4, 2002
2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

315

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VOLLERTHUN

Figure 2. Definition of a system.

Figure 1. Integration of conceptual design and marketing.

[Color figure can be viewed in the online issue, which is
available at www.interscience.wiley.com.]

This difference as well as enormous development cost

require continuous and detailed analyses of the market
and especially of the to be designed product/service
and its interrelations with customers expectations.
The importance of these interrelations is obvious to
space industry as the failure of Iridium painfully revealed. Product development in space industry has gone
from initially performing Design-to-Performance, now
performing Design-to-Cost (especially for scientific
space missions), but the approach that should be applied
(concerning commercial business) is Design-to-Market
[Vollerthun and Igenbergs, 2000, 2001].
The objective of the research presented in this paper
therefore is to build an integrated model for the early
engineering phases that represents the interrelations
between conceptual design, life-cycle cost, and market
revenues (Fig. 1) [Vollerthun, 2001]. With respect to the
organizational gap that often exists between engineers
and marketers, another main objective of this work is to
establish a communication link by which both parties
can easily exchange their ideas and gain an understanding for how changes can affect each other. The
integrated model provides the required design tool to
establish this information based communication link.
To engineers it will serve as a means to not only validate
the conceptual design against requirements, but also to
simulate changing markets and therefore to derive sensitivities in the design space.

2. THE MARKET MODEL

To guide the development of the market model, the
system definition by Igenbergs (see Fig. 2) [Igenbergs,
2000] is used:
A system consists of elements.

Elements have attributes (properties, functions,

and methods).
Elements have interrelations.
An element can also be a system.
Since the scope of marketing is very broad, some
restrictions have to be made for what is to be described
within the market model and what not. To illustrate the
approach, a short overview of some characteristic market/marketing parameters that influence the market
model is given [see also Hering and Draeger, 1999:
420]:
The most important factor for a products success is the customer (next to many other stakeholders a company has). Therefore, his/her
requirements with respect to a product or service
are core variables in the market model.
The market environment is subject to constant
changes in terms of number of customers, political, economical, technological, or ecological
variations.
The competitors and suppliers who are also responsible for success or failure and therefore have
to be analyzed.
Your own company and its technological, economical, and organizational capabilities.
The marketing concept, which refers to a companies/products position in the market and related
marketing activities.
With the system definition and the above-mentioned
parameters that characterize a market, the elements that
form the market model can be identified at an initial
general level:
Element Market Segmentation: This element
identifies relevant market segments, analyses the
requirements of each, and by combining the market segments with the individual market volume,
those market segments that are promising for the
company are selected as target market segments.

INTEGRATING CONCEPTUAL DESIGN AND MARKETING

Element Market Size: Evaluates the economical attractiveness of the identified market segments and determines market potential and
market volume numbers for each of them.
Element Competitors: Knowing about valuable market segments alone is not enough; it has
also to be taken into consideration what (potential) competitors products and prices are like.
Element Price Formation: The question why
or why not a customer purchases a certain product
is a result of many different factors. One of the
most important ones is the price. The element
Price Formation considers aspects that influence the determination of a products price such
as cost for development, competitors prices, and
price readiness of customers.
Element Customer Behavior: Depending on
various influences from other elements and also
the environment, a customers decision for a
product is modeled in this element. Individual
decisions are aggregated to quantify the behavior
of the identified market segments.
The individual elements are now introduced in more
detail and their interrelations to other elements are
identified. The market model was developed with two
levels of resolution (A and B) as shown in Figure 3.
Level B has more parameters than Level A, but, for
illustration, the methods and examples within this paper
are implemented at Level A.

2.1. Element Market Segmentation

In this element markets that are usually very heterogeneous are divided into smaller segments that within
themselves are more homogeneous. Criteria to do this
clustering can include cultural and economic factors.
Since the presented model (Level A) is supposed to be
applied during earliest design phases, where many of
those criteria are not necessarily known, fundamental
user/application requirements are used to perform the
market segmentation. For the European satellite navigation system that is currently under development,
more than 180 applications for satellite navigation services were identified. Requirements were gathered from
the following application areas: Road traffic, other terrestrial, recreational, civil aviation, railroad, maritime,
military, and space applications. For a selection of
theses applications identified requirements are shown
in Figure 4 [RACAL, 2000]. In order to form homogeneous market segments every application is analyzed
and then assigned to a market segment as it is shown in
a simplified way in Figure 5.

317

Figure 3. Three modeling layers for the market model [Color

figure can be viewed in the online issue, which is available at
www.interscience.wiley.com.].

To analyze the identified market segments, a portfolio analysis is performed. The produced portfolios are
used to display the different requirements versus each
other and to visualize where promising market segments lie. Using an interrelation to the conceptual design model, it is possible to map the current design into
the portfolios in order to see which ones can be penetrated and which not. Two types of portfolios are generated. On the one hand, portfolios are used, where the
bubble size indicates the number of applications that
have the same requirements and that lie at the same
point in the requirements space. On the other hand,
the pure number of applications is not meaningful when
it comes to quantifying the companies economical success. Therefore, the element Market Segmentation is
linked with the element Market Size that provides
information on the market volume of the different market segments. An example of the portfolio that results
from the segmentation process and the combination
with numbers for the market volume is shown in Figure
6. Two technical parameters (Accuracy and Time-toAlarm) are displayed versus each other. The position of
the market segments is defined by the customer requirements. The bubble size of each segment is proportional
to its market volume. Depending on the preferred design decision makers are able to quantify immediately
what the potential financial income will be for a certain

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VOLLERTHUN

Figure 4. Requirements for selected satellite navigation applications.

design point. It is also possible to perform sensitivity

analyses in order to, for example, simulate changing
requirements.

2.2. Element Market Size

Figure 5. Segmentation procedure for satellite navigation

applications [Finkel, 2000] [Color figure can be viewed in the
online issue, which is available at www.interscience.
wiley.com.].

As mentioned before, in this element the parameters

that quantify the market size are determined. These are,
for example, the market volume (= overall sales on the
market, realistic demand) and the market potential (=
maximum saturation of the market, theoretically possible demand). Both measures quantify the market available to all competitors. Comparing ones own design
with competing products enables forecasts for ones
own economical success. The most common approach
to forecast market volume is to analyze the past and
current demand and to extrapolate for the future. Since
numerous methods exist to forecast the mentioned pa-

Figure 6. Portfolio analysis of the market volume of selected satellite navigation applications [Color figure can be viewed in the
online issue, which is available at www.interscience.wiley.com.].

INTEGRATING CONCEPTUAL DESIGN AND MARKETING

319

rameters, a more detailed discussion is not required to

understand the presented model.

2.3. Element Competitors

As was described before, it is very important to incorporate an analysis of the competitive environment into
the model. This analysis serves as a basis to model
customer behavior and has to provide information on
the type of the market (monopoly,...), on the performance characteristics of competitors products, including
prices. Also the companies themselves and their strategies may have to be considered when aiming at certain
market segments. With respect to the European satellite
navigation system, competition will only be possible
when Galileo provides a better performance than the
U.S.-American Global Positioning System (GPS). An
equal or even lower performance will be worthless
especially because GPS may still be available free of
charge. Considering a business case for the Galileo
system, fees can only be charged for services that
provide a value-added compared to GPS. Since no
guarantees are given for the availability and integrity of
GPS, these two parameters are suited for a competitive
market.

2.4. Element Price Formation

A very important parameter for a customers decision
to buy a product is its price (i.e., life-cycle cost).
Therefore, the element Price Formation plays a
crucial role within the market model. Three main
parameters can be identified that have an influence
on the price [Wupperfeld, 1999]: These are prices
that are set by competitors, prices that customers are
willing to pay for a certain performance, and thirdly
a companys cost to develop, produce, distribute, etc.
the product. The basic interactions of these three
parameters are visualized in Figure 7. A number of
other influencing parameters exist, such as the strategy a company follows when aiming at a market with
a new product: It can either select a low price in order
to penetrate the market and gain a large market share
(penetration strategy), or it can start off with a high
price and then lower it step by step to increase the
number of customers (skimming strategy).
Various approaches and methods are utilized to determine the prize for a product. The objective within this
paper is not to present any of them in detail, but to show
the basic principles. The methods that are implemented
in the integrated approach are, of course, more detailed
(that applies to all other elements, too).

Figure 7. Strategies for price formation [Color figure can

be viewed in the online issue, which is available at www.
interscience.wiley.com.].

2.5. Element Customer Behavior

This element analyses the behavior of an individual
decision of a customer (or representative customer for
a certain market segment) to purchase a product. Next
to an enormous variety of private, economical, and
other parameters, primarily technical product characteristics are used to model a customers buying decision.
Especially during very early design phases, requirements may be the only information that is available. A
transparent description of a customers decision-making process can hardly ever be achieved. Relevant data
may not be available at all for new products or services,
and an even closer interaction between the marketing
and engineering departments of a company is necessary
in this case. A more precise customer representation in
the model is better.
Most of the models that can be applied use values
for several product characteristics (xijk) in combination
with weighting factors i (as a measure for the importance a customer assigns to a product characteristic).
The sum of the products of these values and weightings
determines a value of benefit (Uik) for the analyzed
design alternatives [e.g., Balderjahn, 1993]:
J

Uik = i xijk .
j=1

Combining the determined benefit with the price

(e.g., including operational cost) for each product, the
costbenefit ratios can be used (see Fig. 8) to represent
a customers decision for one of the available products.
Depending on the parameters that have been chosen to
model customers behavior (in this case the costbenefit
ratio), the individual results are aggregated to determine
measures for entire market segments.

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VOLLERTHUN

Figure 9. Single element of the market model [Color figure

can be viewed in the online issue, which is available at
www.interscience.wiley.com.].
Figure 8. Costbenefitratio as customers as decision criterion [Color figure can be viewed in the online issue, which is
available at www.interscience.wiley.com.].

Each of the before mentioned elements is modeled

according to the system definition that was presented in
the beginning of the paper. In Figure 9 an example is
shown for an element and its inputs and outputs to other
elements. Bringing all five elements together into an
integrated model results as displayed in Figure 10.
Inputs and outputs that are not generated in the market
model itself have to come from the model environment

and are represented by X resp. X . These

interrelations will be discussed in the following section.
The information flow within the model presented in
Figure 10 is iterative. Another iterative relation is the
demand curve, and what might be confusing from a
marketing standpoint is that obviously customers behavior is dependent on price, but not price from demand. The missing relationship is incorporated, but
in a different manner: The output of the element Customers Behavior is the number of products that will be
sold. This number influences production cost, and these
in turn influence, as mentioned before in the description
for the element Price Formation, the price. Further

Figure 10. Integrated market model [Color figure can be viewed in the online issue, which is available at www.interscience.
wiley.com.].

INTEGRATING CONCEPTUAL DESIGN AND MARKETING

relations that connect the market model to other models

will now be presented in the following sections.
Interfaces to the market model environment. The
technical and cost modeling of the conceptual design is
carried out according to the system definition. Both
have been implemented in a tool (MuSSat) that is used
to model products and processes [see Wilke et al.,
1999]. The tool represents a central database, which
allows a teams different specialists involved in the
design to concurrently model their subsystems (including marketing) in a parametric model. By interrelating
all subsystem models, immediate change propagation
and sensitivity analyses can be performed on a systemand subsystem level.
From the information-flow viewpoint, the main interrelation between the market and the conceptual design model delivers the current technical design of the
product to the market model. These technical parameters are used within the market segmentation process
and for the modeling of customer behavior (see Fig. 10).
The second main interface to the cost model provides
information on the required cost categories to the element Price Formation within the market model.
As an example for a typical output when combining
the market model with the conceptual design Figure 11

321

displays the forecasted revenues for a satellite navigation system versus the horizontal accuracy of the system
(any technical parameter can be selected). The curve
that is shown represents the increasing (from right to
left) revenues as the design improves (meaning the
more precise the navigation system can be). The curve
was generated by analyzing the accuracy requirements
of nearly 180 satellite navigation applications and related revenue forecasts [Dragon, 2000; Frost and Sullivan, 1998; Intex Management Services, 1998;
Vollerthun and Wieser, 1999]. Also visualized in Figure
11 are the performance characteristics of the existing
GPS system and of the conceptual design for the Galileo
system (each for open and controlled access services).
As can be seen, GPS can provide the highest accuracy.
Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that this signal is
available at all times. Considering guaranteed qualities
Figure 11 reveals that Galileo may have significant
advantages compared to GPS and could be able to
generate 8 billion EURO revenues per year.
Next to the integration of the market model with
conceptual design and cost estimation techniques it is
important to also integrate the presented method with
methods that are used in companies today. The follow-

Figure 11. Typical output of the combination of the market model with the conceptual design [Color figure can be viewed in the
online issue, which is available at www.interscience.wiley.com.].

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VOLLERTHUN

ing section gives a rough overview over the required

approach.
Integration into the design process. The question
of what inputs the combined model for conceptual
design, cost, and market requires is strongly related to
what the process (see Fig. 12) looks like that which the
model is used in. As a starting point, user requirements
have to be identified. These may result from changes in
the market, from explicitly communicated customer
requirements, from technological improvements, or
from competitors. A requirements management tool is
typically used during this step. The chart depicted in
Figure 11 is an indirect output of a requirements analyses performed with DOORSTM [Dragon, 2000].
To be able to analyze customer behavior, each requirement is coupled with an importance that a customer assigns to it. This importance/weighting can be
determined, for example, within a conjoint analysis.
The requirements and weightings are also an input to a
Quality Function Deployment process, which serves as
a basis for the translation of the requirements into a
conceptual design [see Cohen, 1995]. To describe the
process of selecting the right alternative or/and improving the design, for example, a Pugh concept selection
matrix could be used within a group activity [Pugh,
1991: 73; see also, e.g., Clausing and Cohen, 1999].
There exist many more methods that could/should
be integrated with the market, cost, and conceptual
design model, but it would be far beyond the scope of

this paper to discuss all of them. Since the objective of

this section was to show the importance of integrating
the developed model into the existing design processes
(and not to use it as an isolated activity), the next section
will now concentrate on the benefits the presented
model can generate.

3. BENEFITS
Cash Flow Analyses. As was pointed out in the Introduction, companies in space business today face the
problem that they have to compete on a commercial
market and that the methods they use are not perfectly
suited for this kind of environment. One main problem
is that the state is no longer the contractor, but a customer who wants the spacecraft builder to make the
required investment and sell services. Existing methods
are not able to answer questions related to business case
analyses in an appropriate short time and quality [Astrium, 2000]. The presented model was developed to
support these analyses, and it therefore consists of a
model to do the conceptual design, of a model that
relates this concept to the cost that it defines, and, third,
of a market model, determining what revenues can be
generated. By integrating these three dimensions into
one design methodology, integrated business case
analyses can be performed in a much more effective
way.

Figure 12. Design-to-market process for the application of the integrated product/cost/market model [Color figure can be viewed
in the online issue, which is available at www.interscience.wiley.com.].

INTEGRATING CONCEPTUAL DESIGN AND MARKETING

One approach to evaluate a business case is to determine a cash-flow curve and the break-even point and to
derive a Return-on-Investment (see Fig. 12) for a potential financier. A cash flow curve consists of three main
elements: (a) a display of costs arising during the project time, (b) the corresponding financial commitments
of investors, and (c) the revenues generated by selling
products and/or services. Figure 13 shows the typical
results of a business case analysis by displaying, cost,
investment, and liquidity curves in the upper part and
combining those with market revenues (calculated in
the element Market Sizes) to determine the entire
cash-flow curve in the lower part of the diagram. Also
the effects of changes in any variable can be investigated in a quick manner. Sensitivity analyses with respect to taxes, inflation, exchange rates, etc. can be
analyzed as well as modifications in customer behavior
or other elements of the market model (see also Fig. 13).
Market Robustness. Given the focus of the paper,
a measure of effectiveness is introduced to quantify the
Market Robustness of various design alternatives in
different market segments (derived from Phadke
[1990]). For a considered design, Market Robustness
combines the economical attractiveness (e.g., market
volume) of a market segment with the prospect of the
current design to penetrate this segment (a corresponding portfolio is visualized in the upper right corner of
Fig. 16).
To evaluate the Market Robustness of a design alternative, two values have to be determined: The economi-

323

cal attractiveness of the targeted market segment and

the probability of the design to penetrate these segments. Whereas the economical attractiveness is determined within the market model, the basic principle to
determine the probability of the design to penetrate
these segments is to measure the difference between the
customers requirement and the current design point for
this special requirement. As visualized in Figure 14, the
Market Robustness (RM) can be described as the area
covered by these differences (a and b in Fig. 14) (when
considering two design variables). The mathematical
representation of this correlation can be expressed as
follows (xRef and yRef represent customer requirements):
RM =

a
b .

xRef yRef

If a product is supposed to be operated in various (n)

market segments, the overall Market Robustness of one
design alternative for a variety of market segments can
be determined by
n

RM,total =
i=1

xi xRef,i
.
xRef,i

To evaluate the Market Robustness of different

designs, a portfolio is used to display the two values that
are used within the definition of Market Robustness
against each other (see the upper right corner of Fig. 16).

Figure 13. Cash-flow analysis with the integrated business case model [Color figure can be viewed in the online issue, which is
available at www.interscience.wiley.com.].

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VOLLERTHUN

Figure 14. Market robustness as a measure of effectiveness

[Color figure can be viewed in the online issue, which is
available at www.interscience.wiley.com.].

Design-to-Market Sensitivity Analyses. One of the

core benefits of the integrated model was already mentioned before: By building the model upon parametric
relationships and interrelating it with other models, a
powerful tool emerges to allow quick investigations of
various design concepts. Figure 15 displays one possibility of a sensitivity analysis [Genz, 2001]: an analysis

Figure 15. Sensitivity analysis: market share as a function

product price [Genz, 2001].

of a market segment for high-level personal computers

(technically only slightly different product features). To
investigate effects of changes in the price of the own
product, the resulting market shares of three competing
products are displayed. The first significant loss in
market share results from the fact that the companys
product is more expensive ( 2.350). A second decrease
at about 3.500 is due to an acceptance limit of representative customers in this segment. From an initial

Figure 16. Implementation of the market model for Galileo [Color figure can be viewed in the online issue, which is available at
www.interscience.wiley.com.].

INTEGRATING CONCEPTUAL DESIGN AND MARKETING

look at Figure 15, the reader could assume that the less
expensive product has a too low market share: This
effect results from the considered market segment,
which is an upper class market segment from the customer attributes point of view.

4. CONCLUSIONS
In Figure 16, the interdependencies among the elements
of the market model are summarized again using the
development of the European satellite navigation system Galileo as a reference. In a stepwise (see steps
112) approach in which the market is segmented with
respect to identified requirements, a competitors analysis is performed, as well as possible prices and customer
reactions are investigated. Combining market measures
and technical parameters within the parameter Market
Robustness, a measure of effectiveness is derived to
compare different design alternatives. This modelbased approach gives interdisciplinary product development teams a means to easily assess the outcome of
various design decisions.
Another, more cultural benefit results from the integration of engineering and marketing methods: The
emerging tool serves as a communication medium
between (traditionally separated) engineering and marketing departments. Information gaps can be closed by
this integration, and the design can be validated against
changing market situations in a much more efficient
way. The model helps systems engineers to focus product design more on markets. One aspect that the reader
has to keep in mind is that the model can be used by
engineers, but that the modeling of markets and especially customers behavior requires profound professional experience. Therefore, from the authors point of
view, it is mandatory that the marketing discipline be
integrated into (concurrent) design teams. Next to this
organizational integration, parametric models and their
interrelation with product and cost models will speed
up the design process and ensure a Design-to-Market.
This approach also contributes to an increased systematization in the concept design phases, and it enables more transparency to those who have to select
design features. The methodology can also be used to
analyze the determined market segments and their market volume with respect to potential niches. It can also
serve as a starting point to develop derivatives or to form
a platform concept that is the basis for a product family
[see, e.g., Gonzalez-Zugasti and Otto, 2000].
As part of a major technology development program
between industry and national research institutes (for
the development of future commercial satellite systems), the integrated model presented in this paper was

325

tailored to the companys specific needs and a tool was

developed to perform business case.
For the development of a model as it was presented
in this paper, it is very important to also represent the
market structure: For many products it may be possible
to have a direct link between developer/reseller and
customer, whereas for a satellite manufacturer the entire
value chain has to be considered. The market for satellites is small compared to the market for global UMTS
services.
In applying the model, a large effort has to be made
in gathering the required data to develop a market
model: For various market segments, the numbers of
potential customers, attributes that describe customer
decision processes, assumptions for the behavior of
competitors, and a number of other factors have to be
determined. Since marketing departments already collect much of the needed data, their main task is to
integrate these efforts with the product development
process.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The author would like to acknowledge the many students at the Technical University of Munich who supported this work. A very special thank you to Dr. Robert
Shishko, who contributed a lot to this paper by giving
valuable feedback and ensuring good English readability.
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Andreas Vollerthun is currently CEO of the 3D Systems Engineering GmbH, a spin-off of the Technical
University of Munich (TUM), Germany. He received a Ph.D. from Technische Universitt Mnchen
(TUM) in Systems Engineering in 2001. He also received a Master of Engineering degree from the TUM
in aerospace engineering in 1997 after completing his master thesis at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory
(Pasadena, CA, USA). His research and professional activities focus on the model driven design process
in interdisciplinary design teams and the significance of economical aspects in early design phases.
Andreas is a founding member of the German Chapter of INCOSE.