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Solution
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Introduction......................................................................................................................3
1.1
Analytical Tools.......................................................................................................3
1.2 Derived Cash flows from Simulation Manager.............................................................3
2
ALM solution First Release.......................................................................................4
3.1
Scope........................................................................................................................4
2..1
Enhancement of Functional Analysis for Structural
Liquidity.........................4
2.1.1.1 Behavioural Analysis / Studies for the purpose of Structural..........................4
2.1.1.2 Coverage Ratio Analysis..................................................................................6
2.1.1.3 Tolerance Analysis & Product Distribution.....................................................6
2.1.1.4 Static Liquidity Ratios.....................................................................................7
2.1.1.5 Cost To Close...................................................................................................7
2.1.1.6 Large Customer Ranking.................................................................................7
2.1.1.7 Net Demand and Time Liabilities (NDTL) Report..............................................7
2.1.1.8 Roll Over and Prepayment Analysis...............................................................8
2.1.2
Enhancement of Functional Analysis for Interest Rate Sensitivity.....................8
2.1.2.1 Weighted Average Yield & Weighted Average Cost Distribution....................9
2.1.2.2 Net Interest Income Analysis...........................................................................9
2.1.2.3 Tolerance Analysis & Product Distribution.....................................................9
2.1.2.4 Behavioral Analysis / Studies for the purpose of Interest Rate
Sensitivity
Statement of SB Account.................................................................................................9
2.1.2.5 Duration Gap Analysis and Report on Market Value of Equity....................10
2.1.2.6 Top IR Products.............................................................................................10
2.1.2.7 Break Even Rate(BER)..................................................................................10
2.1.2.8 Value at Risk (VaR).......................................................................................10
2.1.3
Scenario Analysis / Simulation Manager...........................................................11
2.1.3.1 Earning at Risk (EaR)....................................................................................11
2.1.3.2 Market Value Of Equity.................................................................................12
2.1.3.3 Contingency Funding Plan............................................................................12
2.1.3.4 Statement of Short Term Dynamic Liquidity and Back Testing....................12
2.1.3.5 Statement of Integrated Dynamic Liquidity and Projected Balance Sheet13
3
ALM Solution Second Release................................................................................13
3.1
Scope......................................................................................................................13
3.1.1
Inclusion of Interest Derivative Products and Option...................................13
3.1.2
Forecasting of Rate of Interest.......................................................................14
3.1.3
Volatility Calculator.......................................................................................14
3.1.4
Calculation of Fair Values of Financial Instruments.....................................15
4
ALM Solution Third Release...................................................................................15
4.1
Scope......................................................................................................................15
4.1.1
Integration of and Oracle Risk Manager ALM
Solution........15
1. Introduction
Primary objectives of
ALM solution is to
1.1
Analytical Tools
ALM solution will provide comprehensive set of analytical tools for Asset Liability
Management. Great emphasis will be given to graphical analysis with a drill
down facility.
Analytical tools provided by
categories,
ALM solution will extend its analytical features provided for current cash flow
positions to a set of derived cash flows. Various types of derived cash flow
analysis will be supported through Simulation Manager wherein the set of user
defined scenarios will generate derived cash flows.
In this context the main objectives of the Roadmap for ALM solution are:
1. To enhance the Functional Product Features
2. To support the Pillar II implementation of Basel II from the perspective
of Interest rate Risk in the banking Book and Stress Testing.
Enhancement
Liquidity
of
Functional
Analysis
for
Structural
1.1.2.1
Data Points
Amount in
Bucket (Rs.
Cr)
%
to
Total(Core)
RSquared
%
t - Statistic
1-14 Days
N.A
689.94
8.68%
N.A
N.A
15-28 Days
N.A
689.94
8.68%
N.A
N.A
29 Days-3 Months
N.A
689.94
8.68%
N.A
N.A
3-6 months
N.A
689.94
8.68%
N.A
N.A
6m-1 year
N.A
689.94
8.68%
N.A
N.A
1 year-3 Years
156-319
1952.98
24.58%
96.84%
172.05
3-5 Years
1-260
2543.40
32.01%
97.40%
99.00
over 5 years
N.A
TOTAL(Outstanding
Balance as on the
Latest Week)
0%
N.A
N.A
7946.07
100%
1-14 Days
15-28 Days
29 Days-3 Months
3-6 months
6m-1 year
1 year-3 Years
3-5 Years
over 5 years
Data Points
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
156-260
1-260
N.A
TOTAL(Outstandi
ng Balance as on
the Latest Week)
%
to
Total(Core
)
6.82%
6.82%
6.82%
6.82%
6.82%
26.38%
39.52%
0%
8256.34
100%
RSquared
%
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
98.28%
96.91%
N.A
t - Statistic
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
76.47
89.97
N.A
1-14 Days
15-28 Days
29 Days-3 Months
3-6 months
6m-1 year
1 year-3 Years
3-5 Years
over 5 years
Data Points
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
156-319
1-319
N.A
TOTAL(Outstanding
Balance as on the
Latest Week)
%
to
Total(Core)
2.28%
2.28%
2.28%
2.28%
2.28%
27.35%
61.26%
0%
6276.68
100%
R-Squared
%
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
92.80%
95.24%
N.A
t - Statistic
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
N.A
123.96
97.01
N.A
Coverage Ratio (CR) indicates inflow as a percentage of outflows i.e. for every
unit of outflow, number of units of inflow. Coverage Ratio Analysis is a what-if
analysis that displays impact on coverage ratio due to change in inflow or
outflow. Inflow and outflow may be changed through text entries in each maturity
bucket. Coverage ratio analysis will be made through both textual and graphical
representation.
2.1.1.3
2.1.1.4
The following ratios can be generated from the solution so as to enable the Bank
to frame ALM Policy and set target thereof. Going forward, ALM solutions will be
able to generate the trend of these ratios over the past years on different MIS
dates.
Table 4: Static Liquidity Ratio
Short Term Borrowing to Total Assets (Ceiling)
Short Term Borrowing to Total Deposits(Ceiling)
Purchased funds to Total Assets (Ceiling)
Net Loans to Total Assets (ceiling)
Core Deposits to Net Advances (Floor)
Investment in Short Term assets (maturing within
one year) to purchased funds (Floor)
Commitment Ratio(Off Balance Sheet Exposure to
Net Worth) (Ceiling)
Cash in Hand to Deposits(Ceiling)
2.1.1.5
Cost To Close
Cost to close analysis is for calculating cost to bridge liquidity gap. This is a very
useful analysis to understand impact of funding Liquidity gap. Gap may be
positive or negative. If gap is negative, then money has to be borrowed from the
market. If gap is positive, then money invested realizes yield. Here the users can
key-in the expected market rates and see the 'Cost To Close'.
2.1.1.6 Large Customer Ranking
Reports on Customer Ranking in terms of large liquidity providers and large
liquidity users will be incorporated. The customer raking report will indicate the
name of the customer, amount, and maturity date and product type.
2.1.1.7
2.1.1.8
This analysis enables to calculate the roll over of Principal amounts and
corresponding interest flows for selected products of a bank. Rollover /
Prepayment amounts begin after the selected maturity bucket. If user selects 114 days as the maturity bucket, then rollover will start from the 15th day. Rollover
/ prepayment percentage in each maturity bucket is independent of other maturity
buckets and amounts.
These two reports may be integrated to provide Integrated Roll Over and
Prepayment report.
Currently, ALM solution captures prepayment analysis of loan products and
Early exercise Option for Term Deposits, and Roll Over analysis is not featured.
The Roll Over and Prepayment Analysis may be made for both loan and
deposit products and the Early Exercise option may be removed from the
solution.
2.1.2.1
The weighted average interest rate on assets (yield) and weighted average
interest rate on liabilities (cost) distributed across maturity buckets and also at
aggregate level to be incorporated in form of tabular and graphical format. The
average spread (difference between average yield and average cost) distributed
across maturity buckets are also to be incorporated.
2.1.2.2
Trend Analysis may be carried out to calculate the Interest Paying Core Portion
( as %of total outstanding balance) of the SB Account and Non Sensitive (on
Interest paying) Portion of the Saving Bank Account.
2.1.2.5
The Market Value of Equity(MVE) measures the Interest Rate Risk (IRR) from the
Economic value Perspective. The market value of Equity is calculated from the
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Duration Gap Analysis (DGA) of the Rate Sensitive Assets (RSA) and Rate
Sensitive Liabilities (RSL). Duration of RSAs and RSLs in each time bucket is to
be calculated taking the appropriate discount rate. Duration of RSAs and RSLs
will indicate the weighted Duration.
At present
ALM solution is computing duration of each product. However,
Duration Gap is not being calculated for each time bucket or at aggregate level.
DGA would be calculated for each time bucket as well as aggregate level which
in turn will provide input to compute the MVE for the balance sheet of the bank.
2.1.2.6
Top IR Products
ALM solution will provide analysis to display products that have the top
weighted average yield/cost in each maturity bucket for both Rate Sensitive
Assets and Liabilities. A graphical representation of the same can also be
viewed.
2.1.2.7
Break Even Rate represents the rate at which the Net Interest income(NII) would
be zero. This defined as Interest Expenses minus Interest Income divided by
difference in outstanding RSA and outstanding RSL.
BER = (Interest Expenses Interest Income) / Abs (RSA RSL)
ALM solution will provide Break Even Rate Analysis for each time bucket.
Positive BER indicates bank has to lend and negative BER indicates has to
borrow at this rate to make NII zero.
2.1.2.8
VaR for the Banking Book will be part of the ALM solutions for measuring IRR in
the banking Book. The following parametric models can be used for generating
scenarios of interest rates
1. Black Karansky
2. Hull-White 1-factor Model
3. Cox, Ingersoll and Ross.
Historical data on interest rates will be used for estimating the parameters of the
respective models. The models will be simulated using the stochastic term in
each of the respective functions.
10
These multiple values of interest rates will In turn be used in the EAR/MVE model
to estimate the distribution of values. VaR / CVaR will be calculated based on the
estimated distributions.
The impact of change in the Rate of Interest on the Banks earning by changing
the NII /NIM is EaR. This is the Interest Rate Risk on the Banking Book. It
provides a What-if analysis on NII. It facilitates visualization of impact of
movement in interest rates resulting in repricing of assets and liabilities. It shows
the change in NII for any change in Yield or Cost across maturity bucket. Both NII
and NIM impact are shown.
There are two ways to envisaged change in NII. First is by changing yield and/or
cost curves i.e if it is envisaged a positive change of 50 basis points in the yield
in the first maturity bucket (RSA) and/or 25 basis points in the cost in the second
maturity bucket (RSL). Second is by changing the specified portion of rate
Sensitive Assets and/or Liability( Repriced portion of the asset and/or liability)
when there is a change in market rate.
Corresponding change in NII and NIM due to this what-if analysis will be reflected
in the Earning at Risk (EaR) analysis Report generated from Simulation
manager.
Interest rate movement can be be set either in terms of percentage of yield
change and cost change or in terms of basis points of yield change and cost
change.
The earning impact can be discounted at a appropriate discount rate to get
discounted EaR (DEaR).
2.1.3.2
11
MVE may be added as a scenario type in Interest Rate and Earning analysis
cube. The change in MVE for a given shock in the interest rate is to be
viewed in each time bucket and also at aggregate level by taking all the time
buckets into account.
Table 5 : Change in MVE (Rs. Crore)
Change in Interest Bucket 1
Rate( in bps)
-100 bps
-50 bps
50 bps
100 bps
2.1.3.3
0.12
0.07
- 0.08
- 0.11
Bucket 2
All Buckets
0.15
0.03
-0.05
-0.09
22.65
12.52
8.54
19.34
The
Banks Specific Crisis will capture two scenarios (A)Local Liquidity Crisis (B)
Where there is a nation wide name problem or down grade of Credit Rating if the
Bank is publicly rated, should be considered. The Reports must consider the
impact of accelerated run off of large liquidity providers. The indicative format of
the report is annexed.
2.1.3.4
In order to estimate the liquidity on dynamic basis the bank has to prepare
Statement of Dynamic Liquidity by giving due importance to 1) Seasonal Pattern
of Deposits/Loans. 2) Potential Liquidity needs for meeting new loan demands,
unavailed credit limits, loan policy, potential deposits losses, investment
obligations, statutory obligations etc. This report is aimed at depicting short-term
12
cash flow and segregates it across three maturity buckets. The indicative format
of this report is annexed.
The projected figures in the short term dynamic liquidity report will be backtested
against the actual data and the variation of the actual data from the projected
figure will indicate the level of accracy of the projection. This will help the bank in
fine tuning the projection for further projection.
2.1.3.5
A dynamic liquidity report shows the future cash inflow and outflow for a bank.
This can be viewed as an extension of the structural liquidity report. Both these
reports liquidity are integrated to generate the Integrated Dynamic Liquidity
report. The Integrated Dynamic Liquidity report will indicate the projected balance
Sheet as on a future date.
Scope
3.1.1 Inclusion of Interest Derivative Products and Option
Interest Derivative Products like Interest Rate Swap, Interest Rate Futures,
Forwards and Option ( Modelling) are to be included in the solutions. The
position conversion of these products is to be built up in the solutions based upon
the hedging strategy in order to calculate the interest rate sensitivity portion.
All derivatives which have a forward component should be considered as a
combination of two positions in bonds. Accordingly, banks should compute the
actual modified duration for each item of the derivatives portfolio and plot them
as assets (receivables) or liabilities (payables) in the appropriate time buckets.
Interest Rate Swaps could be considered as a combination of a short position
and long position. The notional of the fixed and floating leg of an Interest Rate
Swap could be shown in the respective maturity bucket based on the maturity
date for the fixed leg and the reset date for the floating leg. Suppose, a bank
receives 5-year fixed and pays floating MIBOR, then the fixed leg of the swap
could be shown as positive in the 5-7 year bucket and the floating leg would be
shown as a negative in <1 month bucket.
13
The functional features of Risk Manager which are not there in ALM Solution or
better than the existing features of ALM Solution will be incorporated.
15
POSITION AS ON
)
Banks specific Crisis
Market Crisis
Assumptions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Net Gap
Currency :
16
Outflow Group
Subgroup
1 to 14 days
15 to 28 days
29 days to 3 Months
1 to 14 days
15 to 28 days
29 days to 3 Months
Subgroup
17