Feature

News
analysis
title here

Carbon-neutral
compromise
The international aviation community has made a step forward in honouring its
promise of cleaner skies, but limited participation remains a concern. Martin Rivers
reports from the ICAO General Assembly in Montreal, Canada
ICAO has succeeded in signing
up China to the CORSIA
programme (all photos: ICAO)

n 2012, when airlines opposed implementation

of the European Unions Emissions Trading
System (ETS) vowing instead to pursue a global
Market-Based Measure (MBM) with backing from all
regions sceptics naturally assumed the industry
was kicking its environmental responsibilities into
the long grass. Securing global consensus over an
issue as controversial as aviation pollution was surely
beyond the reach of the international community, they
reasoned, removing any pressure on airlines to reduce
their emissions.
The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for
International Aviation (CORSIA) an environmental
accord struck at the 39th Assembly of the International
Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), held in Montreal
in October was the industrys much-anticipated
response. Acting in concert with the IATA, the largest
airline trade group, ICAO claims to have secured global
support for a framework that will deliver carbon-neutral
growth on international flights from 2020. Domestic

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flights are already covered by the 2015 Paris Agreement,

which is due to come into effect at the same time.
Critics of CORSIA have been quick to point out its
limitations. First, unlike ETS, the new scheme is not
a cap-and-trade system that places a firm ceiling on
annual emissions beyond 2020. ICAOs members
have instead agreed to offset or mitigate higher
emissions by investing in UN-approved environmental
programmes. The more the industry exceeds its annual
quota for emissions, the more money it has to spend
on green initiatives that tackle the causes of global
warming. That accountability is a step in the right
direction. But as Bill Hemmings, Aviation Director of
research group Transport & Environment, notes: This
deal wont reduce demand for jet fuel one drop. Instead,
offsetting aims to cut emissions in other industries.
Limited participation in CORSIA is another concern.
ICAO trumpets the fact that countries representing
86.5% of international aviation activity a term referring
to Revenue Tonne Kilometres (RTKs) have signed up

www.lowcostandregional.com / January 2017

News analysis

to the voluntary phase of CORSIA, which runs from 2021

to 2026. That is an encouraging statistic but it does
not tell the whole story. Put another way, just 66 of the
UNs 193 member states are complying with CORSIA
from the outset. The impressive RTK figure reflects the
all-important participation of the EU, America, China
and other aviation giants. But fast-rising markets like
India, Brazil and Russia have not pledged to abide by
the scheme even once it becomes mandatory in 2027.
Their proportional RTK footprint will grow with each
passing year, eroding the 86.5% figure.

Aliu: We will find a way to find consensus and compromise

Worse still, the routes-based methodology of CORSIA

means that not all international flights to and from
participating countries will be covered by the scheme.
Emissions will only come into play if both the country
of origin and the country of departure have signed the
accord. Flightglobals analysis of worldwide Available
Seat Kilometres (ASKs) estimates that just 60% of
international capacity is currently deployed in country
pairs connecting the 66 signatories. Factoring in growth
forecasts, the International Coalition for Sustainable
Aviation (ICSA) has calculated that just three quarters of
new emissions on international flights will be offset by
CORSIA. In other words, the carbon-neutral target will be
missed by a wide margin.
For its part, ICAO stresses that carbon-neutral
growth post-2020 is an aspirational goal contingent
on further political momentum and progress in three
separate efficiency-driving initiatives: improved aircraft
technology; better airspace management; and uptake
of sustainable biofuels. By applying those three
measures, we should have already achieved addressing
the increase in emissions after 2020, ICAO President
Olumuyiwa Benard Aliu tells Low Cost & Regional Airline
Business during the assembly. Whatever is left that
is not able to be addressed through those technical

January 2017 / www.lowcostandregional.com

measures, we will now apply the market-based

measure to fill the gap.
IATA has likewise talked up the importance of wider
efficiency gains, with Director General Alexandre de
Juniac telling governments that they must match
our efforts to deliver carbon-neutrality specifically
by modernising air navigation infrastructure and
subsidising commercially unviable biofuels. There is no
doubt that those steps would give momentum to the
industrys efforts. But it is troubling that both ICAO and
IATA seem to be pinning the success or failure of CORSIA
on external, unrelated developments. Under ETS, airlines
would have had no choice but to meet their quotas
irrespective of outside circumstances. Under CORSIA,
they seem to be giving themselves a get out of jail card
before the scheme starts openly declaring that missed
targets can be blamed on insufficient government
spending elsewhere.
Nonetheless, while it is right for observers to
scrutinise and even criticise CORSIA, some of the
schemes detractors have lost sight of the big picture by
focusing solely on statistics and science. ICAO, we must
remember, is not an independent body or regulator
capable of mandating policy. Its Montreal headquarters
is merely a venue for transport ministers to come
together and seek mutual understanding. Seen from
this perspective, partial consensus is surely better than
no consensus at all. States will have the time between
now and 2019, our next assembly, to make their views
known and the coverage will only continue to increase,
Aliu predicts. We will be focusing on that at the political
level to seek states commitment.
The divergent priorities of developed and developing
nations must also be accommodated by ICAO in a
patient and pragmatic fashion. It is no accident that
three of the four BRIC nations sizable countries whose
economies have matured but not reached fullydeveloped status remain vocally opposed to CORSIA.
They, quite understandably, resent measures that will
slow aviation growth across their borders, pointing
to the sectors proven role as a catalyst for economic
maturity and wealth creation. Western countries, they
note, faced no such encumbrance during their historic
transition into fully developed economies.
While convincing the likes of India to join the
scheme is a daunting task, sceptics must acknowledge
ICAOs success in signing up China, the largest BRIC
country. Beijings volte-face from an angry critic of ETS
to an ardent support of CORSIA gives hope that the
international community may yet honour its promise of
cleaner skies. We will find a way to reach consensus and
compromise, Aliu says confidently. Even though we
have different circumstances, we always find a way to
come together as a global body to reach agreement at a
global level. So I am very happy.

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