You are on page 1of 44

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ONSOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT


(THE CASE OF BISHOFTU TOWN)

A senior essay submitted in partial fulfillment of the


requirements for obtaining Bachelor of Arts (BA) Degree
in Economics

By: TADU NIGUSIE

Advisor: Mohammed Teshome


(Ato)

Samara University
Faculty of Business and Economics
Department of Economics
May, 2010
Samara
Ethiopia
Table of content
Content
page
1

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Acknowledgement ...l
Acronyms ..ll
Chapter one
1. Introduction ..1
1.1. Back ground of the study ...1
1.2. Statement of the problem ..3
1.3. Objective of the study ....4
1.4 Research question of the study..4
1.5 scope and limitation of the study ..5
1.5.1. Scope of the study .5
1.5.2 Limitation of the study ....5
1.6. Significance of the study ..5
1.7. Organization of the study ....6
1.8. Methodology
1.8.1. Method of data collection and source ......6
1.8.2. Method of data analysis .....6
Chapter two
2. Literature Review ....7
2.1. Concept and definition of population ....7
2.2. Population growth and socio-economic development ....7
2.3. Determinant of population change ....9
2.4. Impact of rapid population growth .10
2.4.1. Economic problem 10
2.4.2. Social problem ...13
2.4.3. Political problem .15
2

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Chapter three
3. Description of the study area .19
3.1. General feature of Bishoftu town ...19
Chapter four
4. Data analysis and presentation ..22
4.1. Demographic data of the respondent ....22
4.2. Data analysis on population growth ...27
4.2.1. Determinants of population growth in Bishoftu town ....27
4.2.2. Rural- urban migration in the town ..29
4.2.3. Consequences of rapid population growth on the
socio-economic development .......................................29
4.2.4. Measures for reduce rapid population growth ..36
4.2.5. Population growth and socio-economic
development in the town ...36
Chapter five
5. Conclusion and recommendation ...38
5.1. Conclusion ......38
5.2. Recommendation 39
Reference .... 41

AKNOWLEDGEMENT

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

First of all, I would like to express my thanks to my God for nothing, I have ever done
with out his gracious held and over all support in my life and academic.
Secondly I would like to express my deepest thanks and appreciation to my advisor Mr.
Mohamed Teshome (MA) for his comments, guidance, detail evaluation of paper and
he play a great role in the smartness or success of my research paper.
Most essentially I would like to express my grateful thanks and heart felt appreciation
to my father Ato Nigusie Gamachu, my mother w/o Gorfu Ashetu and all my family
members and relatives for their unreserved effort in providing financial, material and
moral support for my academic success. I have no more words to express my thanks
and respect to them my God live long them.
Finally, my heart full thanks extent to Ato Mekonen Dibaba for his material support of
computer for writing my paper. I would like to thanks all my teachers and friends like
Marga Tolera, Chala Benya, Falmata Roro, and others, those contribute a great role in
success of my paper and academicals success.

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Acronyms
CSA- Central Statistical Authority
DCs- Developed Countries
EEA- Ethiopian Economic Association
FDRE- Federal Demographic Republic of Ethiopia
GDP-Gross Domestic Product
HDI- Human Development Index
ILO- International Labor Organization
LDCs- Least Developing Countries
MOFED-Ministry of Finance and Economic Development
MOE Ministry of Education
NGOs-Non-governmental Organization
PCI-Per Capital Income
UN-United Nation

CHAPTER ONE
1. INTRODUTION
1.1 Back ground of the study
Population is various form of living thing in a definite geographic environment which has specific
habitats, living style and distinct social organization. Every year the number of people is added to the
5

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

world population, most of them are from developing counties. According to UN (1996) the figure of
population projected in 2050 over 90% of population will the developing counties. The world
population size in 2006 where about 6.55 billion people, among these population 5.339 billions were
LDCs and 1.216 billion were DCs, with 1.5% annual growth rate. Africa is one of the LDC, which
characterized by rapid population growth with weak economic development, especially sub Sahara
African countries. The total population of Africa is 763 million in 1998 year with high annual growth
rate of population in the world.
Ethiopia is one of the LDCs and characterized by rapid population growth which is not balanced with
economic development of the county. According to UN (1998) estimated population of 18 million
in1950 ranked it 25th in the world. In 1998 Ethiopia ranked 20 th with 60 million populations. The
projected population of 169 million in 2050 were ranked country 9 th most populated in the world and
2nd in Africa following Nigeria. The Ethiopia annual growth rate was 2.4% with the doubling time of
population is about 24 year. Such rapid growth population change in fact strains socio-economics
development of our country seriously.
Ethiopia is a multi nation country, there are more than 80 nationalities speaking different language
and have differ cultures. The determinant /size/ of population of Ethiopia is in continuous process of
change through the demographic process known as fertility, mortality and international migration.
Fertility trend to raise size and growth population, mortality trend to decrease size and international
migration is significant in changing population size. These are called variables that determine the level
of population growth.
In Ethiopia rapid population growth bring to a reduction in per capital income, social service
provision, unemployment, dependency ratio, natural resource and environment degradation, job
opportunity, basic need self sufficient provision of good and service and size of land available for
farming and housing. According to EEA (2000) land holding size is the main constraint for achieving
food security, since 1970s Ethiopia was facing a recurrent famine. According to UN (2002) Ethiopia
was facing very large emergence aid, which the projection of 10-15 million people, requiring food
assistance in 2003.According to CSA (2000), if the current trend of population growth will continues,
the population of Ethiopia is predominantly a nation of young population. Almost 57% of population
is under 25 ages. The economically active population is between age 15 and 65 which, engage in
production of good and service. Ethiopia high young population implies large dependence on
6

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

productive peoples. The distribution of population is more settled on high land area and low in low
land areas. High land area have available environment for agriculture production. This high
concentration of population causes environmental change such as land degradation, deforestation and
soil erosion as well as change in rain fall.
Oromia regional state is one of the largest regions in the FDRE that share boarder with all regions
except Tigray and highly populated with different unique features. Oromia region have central position
location between 34o 2420 east-43o11 east longitude and 03o2420north -10o2326north latitude,
covering geographic area of 363,136 km2 and estimated 32% of total area of Ethiopia. The region is
rich in natural resource and have very good environment for investment and agriculture production.
The region is characterized by rapid population growth especially around urban areas. Oromia ranked
first in term of population size has a population density of 61.5 people per square kilometer. The
fertility rate of region was about 7.3 children per women. The regional population growth is not
balanced with the economic development that brings various impacts. According to CSA (2000), the
Oromia total population is 27.08 million people that rank first by accounting 36.8% of total population
share of Ethiopia. The annual population growth rate of urban area is 4.5% and rural area is 2.6% per
annual.
Bishoftu town is one the first ranked city of Oromia that is center of Adaa wereda administration
which is more developing town of east shao zone, with high socio-economic opportunity. The town is
located on high land and found between Adama and Finfinne (Addis Ababa) city. The town
population growth at high rate of 3.7% per year and have population about 182534 people in 2002
year. 60% of the populations are aged between 15-64 year that is economically active in productivity
of good and service. The population of town has its own consequences on distribution of land, social
service, natural resource, job opportunity, dependence ratio,and food security, unemployment, per
capital income, administration and security of the societies.
1.2 statement of problem of the study
In most LDCs in the world, rapid population growth has deterministic impacts on socio-economic
development. 80% of Ethiopia population lives in rural area which depending on agricultural
production using traditional system. As population grow rapidly the per capital land holds of house
holds decrease that result in fall in food production and rises poverty cycle in the societies.
7

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

In the situation where population size is grow fast, the demand for food supply, health protection,
education facilities and job opportunity of labor force are increase simultaneously. These faster
demands for social service, PCI, natural resource, basic need and quality of living standard are beyond
the capacity of house holds and economic capacity of our country, that leads to under development of
economy.
In LDCs , specially sub Saharan counties like Ethiopia have large number of under 15 age
population that are non productive population with large dependence ratio, expenditure for social
service and basic need become very high in the country. Half of the population are dependent on
active labor force for there daily basic needs. Besides, it put more pressure on available resource
provide social service to the growing youth population.
In Ethiopia, rapid population growth raises question such as what and how economic , social and
political implication for level of living standard, freedom choice, investment and saving , public
service ,natural resource, social transformation ,food security, migration and infrastructure facilities
can be solved through process. In addition to high number of population growth as problems, social
well fair, job opportunity and socio-economic development problem are bring Ethiopia to in LDCs
with population growth and low improvement of economy.
At recent time, the rate of urban population growth in Ethiopia is very high. Many research literatures
showed that the rapid population growth have it own consequences on socio-economic development
in urban areas today with the increasing rate of population in Bishoftu town , there is a decrease in
land holding, high rate of unemployment, short of social service and housing issues. The demand for
housing, leisure, refreshment, social service and land holding are raises in the town. The provision of
social service and infrastructure facilities are increase, increase in dependence ratio and
unemployment,low saving, high expenditure of consumption, social well fair, investment, basic need,
and economic change has been the result of rapid population growth of the town.
Generally, in Bishoftu town under the continuing massive addition of people each year, the socioeconomic development of the town affected and it is much more difficult to make progress in
reducing poverty ,improving economic transformation ,creating sufficient food supply, investment
exposition, capital formation, creating more job opportunity, distribution of social service, reducing
migration from rural area, protection of natural resource and environment condition, reducing
8

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

dependence ratio, facilitating infrastructure and raising production enough to keep with population
growth of town are the main issues of society.
1.3 objective of the study

General objective:

The general objective of this paper are to assess the determinant and over all issues of rapid population
growth and its impact on socio-economic development.

Specific objective:
Specific objective of the research are to:
Assess over all ideas of the population and related issues.
Identify the main determinant of population growth.
Discuss/explain/ the consequence of rapid population growth on socio-economic development.
Suggest some possible policy recommendation.
1.4 Research question of the study

Research question that would be answer under this study are as follows:
What is the main determinant of rapid population growth in Bishoftu town?
What are the social and economic consequences of rapid population growth?
What are the possible policies recommendations ought to take on reduction of rapid population
growth and is impacts on the town social and economic development?
1.5 Scope and Limitation of the study
1.5.1 Scope of the study
The study of paper focus on the consequence of rapid population growth on the town socio-economic
development. The study of paper cover 1994-2002 year data source of the town population status. The
study mainly focus on agricultural productivity, social service provision, unemployment of labor force,
natural resource degradation, dependence ratio, job opportunity of investment and land share that are
highly related with rapid population of town. The motivation to conduct these analyses is to assess
over all consequence of population growth on socio-economic development of Bishoftu town. The
study is conduct on random sample select of kebele 01,02 and 03 of the town that that have more
rapid population growth and its impact on socio-economic development related to other kebele of
town. The random selected kebele are out of nine kebele of Bishoftu town.
1.5.2. Limitation of the study
The study of this paper analysis are limited by short age of primary and secondary data source, lack of
available current data profiles, short age of reference book, internet service, time and budget are some
limitation of the study that reduce expected finding of research paper analyses.
9

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

1.6 significance of the study


This paper is use full for addressing the determinant and consequence of rapid population growth on
socio-economic development of town. It also tells us the impact of rapid population in urban areas that
result from population growth through high fertility rate, high rural-urban migration and low death
rate.
The study provides informations on current condition of different data profiles and policy
recommendations on consequence of rapid population growth on economic development of Bishoftu
town. In addition, it indicates some clues to more research study and promote good condition for
socio- economic planning and implementation.

1.7

Organization of the study

The paper analyses have five parts. Chapter one is introduction part; chapter two is concerned with the
literature review section, chapter three deals with area description; chapter four deals with discussion
and analysis; finally, chapter five conclusion and some possible policy recommendation.
1.8

Methodology

1.8.1

Method of data collection and source.

To analyses the impact of rapid population growth in the town socio-economic activities, the study
use both primary and secondary data source. The primary data source is collected through
questionnaire from non random purposive selected residents of three selected kebele and officers of
kebeles and town administration to get more detail information. The sample design to conduct is
purposive non random selection. The sample size of respondent for questionnaire is fifty /
50/respondents. The respondent is resident of sampled kebele, officer of kebele and town
administration. Secondary data are obtained from annual report of Bishoftu town administration,
annual report of kebele 01, 02 and 03 data, reference book, and interview of concerned bodies,
10

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

physical observation and internet are employed to collect reliable data that can make paper analyses
more clear and understandable.
1.8.2 Methods of data analysis
In this study differ data profile are employ in descriptive analysis form. The descriptive analysis
includes statistical tools such as tabulation, average, percentage, ration, and diagram representation are
apply to explain impact of rapid population growth on social and economic development of the town
in clear and qualitative way. Data analysis is in both quantitative or numerical and qualitative

CHAPTER TWO
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Concept and definition of population
Population is the productive live and health of individual, couples, community and all the people in a
country. Population is a group of people living in a definite geographic area. Population concerned in
term of size, growth rate, structure, demographic and distribution of people in the area human population
is the main productive force and maker of spiritual and material. It includes gender equality and equity,
as well as, participation of community in matter related to their well being.
Population dynamics refers to variable that determine the level of population growth and thus function
are fertility, mortality and migration in changing the size and structure of population of an area. While
fertility and mortality are biological factor, migration is purely non-biological in nature. The stage of
social and economic and demographic development determines the level of each of these factors.
Population dynamics is an increase or decrease in population size due to birth rate, death rate and
migration.
11

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Economic and social development is a process of improving the quality of all human lives aspects of
development are raising peoples level of living in there income and consumption level, creating
condition conducive to growth of people self-esteem and increasing people freedom enlarging range of
their choice. It is also include change in social service, economic transformation, job opportunity and
infrastructure facilities development in the society.

2.2 Population growth and socio-economic development


The world most growth center of population is the LDCs. In the world, LDCs have very high birthrates,
while developed country has birth rate below replacement rate. Population growth rate in LDCs is 2%
per annual, compared to 1.1% in middle income countries and 0.7% per annual in DCs. According to
UN (1998) of population report, LDCs are not in position of lowering their population growth rate that
hinders their economic progress. Such large of people living in the world have no sufficient resource to
feed such large people living in the world. Natural resource is naturally limited but being and need and
wants are not limited. In LDCs, due to high birth rate children under age 15 are 32% of total population,
while 17% in DCs, this refers dependence burden on active labor force tosupport financially more
children and older (UN, 1998).
In most developing countries rapid population growth has various consequences on socio-economic
development. According to UN ,in LDCs 80% of population engaged in agriculture production,
However, land holding diminishing that decrease production of agriculture result in short age of food
securities. As population rises the demand for natural resource and social service increase and capital
per worker ratio decrease lowering standard of living. Population have a major barrier to alleviate
poverty cycle, inequality and under development of economic absorbing capacities of economy
increases unemployment and migration of labor force. Population growth dampens economic growth
and social transformation through capital shadowing effect that is reduction in capital per worker ratio,
age dependence of young resulting in high consumption of food production, depleting saving and
investment activity in the country (EEA, 2000).
In Ethiopia as EEA states that the relation ship between rapid population growth and socio-economic
development have a negative effect due to the imbalance between population growth and economic
development. The strong relation ship between population and economic development is the area of food
production and supply, sustainable economic growth, poverty alleviation, PCI, job opportunity
12

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

distribution of social service, standard of living and land share that will be mismatch with present
Ethiopian population growth and economic development. The size of population in relation to economic
growth and development and standard of living is negatively related, this shows under development of
economy and rapid population growth.
However, this highest rate of population growth has considerable impact on social and economic
development. As the issues of was raised by Malthus in 18th centuries an essay on the principles of
population as its affects future improvement of society. The effect of population growth depends on the
age group that is participle in socio-economic activities. When population growth dominated by children
and youth, this population have Malthusian effect on the subsistence situation. According to Malthus, the
food production increase at apace slower than population growth resulting in recurrence drought,
famine, socio-economic stagnation and have under development of economy.
Population issue is central in development issue. Hence, population concern could be treated as an
integral part of the border socio-economic system. Population considered as liability rather than asset in
Ethiopia, because of population growth rate is greater than economic development. The implication of
rapid growth rate of population in developing country is in significant. The economic has to provide
food, clothing, shelter health and educational service and employment to the growing population. Rapid
growth of the population has adverse effect on natural resource and environment.

2.3 Determinant of population change


Determinant of population change are kwon as component or dynamic of population change. It
determines the level of population growth /change/ in size and structure of the population of an area.
Determinants population change brings about difference in size and characteristics of population of a
given social environment. The basic determinants of population change include fertility, mortality and
migration.
The total population of any are at the end of a given year equals to the population size at the beginning
of the year plus all the births, minus all the death ,plus all the in migrant /immigrants and minus all the
out migrants /emigrants. This refers to the concept of population growth rate (Girma, 2003).
In Ethiopia the main component of population growth are fertility, mortality and migration of people.
Fertility and mortality rate are the major determinant of population growth while international migration
13

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

is in significant. The combined effect of dynamic of population control structural change of any
population in spite and time. The stage of socio-economic and demographic development of a given
society in turn determines the level of each of these factors.
Fertility: refers to the actual reproductive performance of a population. It brings live into being on the
earth. Fertility being the actual child bearing performance of individual, couples, groups or population,
measures the rate by which a population adds to it self through lives births. There are different kinds of
rate of the measures fertility of a given population .among these rates total fertility rate is the most
refined and widely used.
The major factor that contributes to higher level of fertility could be early marriage, traditional values
attached to children, low status and empowerment of women in the society, religious back ground of
people, less education awareness and access to family planning service. Among other socio-cultural and
economic related factor, low level of education is said to be the most important causes of high index of
fertility in rural area of Ethiopia.
Mortality: is concerned with death occurrence. It forces lives to go out of being. Mortality rate, though
decreasing, are higher in developing counties than the developed ones. This different caused by variation
in the standard of living, nutrition, medicine service, personal hygiene and environmental protection.
The most common measure of mortality consists of a crude death rate, infant mortality and live
expectancy. Ethiopia is one of the countries of the world with high crude death rate, infant mortality rate
lowest live expectance. Further more, mortality of children under the age of five years and maternal
mortality are very in Ethiopia, which indicates low level of development in the country.
Migration: it is kinds of population movement, which involves permanent change of ones own
residence. In other term, migration is the movement of people across specific area or boundary for the
purpose or establishing new residence. Geographer use different bases to classify migratory movement
of peoples into different group .it involve internal and international migration movement of peoples.
The most common measures of migration include immigration rate, emigration rate and net migration
rate. Migration type in Ethiopia is rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban and urban rural migration.
Migration has direct effect on geographical distribution and differential growth of population. More

14

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

over, it has an interaction with other demographic forces as well as other aspects of social and economic
change.

2.4

Impact of rapid population growth

2.4.1 Economic problems


A) Natural resource depletion and environment degradation
Rapid population growth in developing countries especially in Ethiopia in the context of low
technological advancement is exerting heavy pressure on natural resource and environment condition.
The rising demand for food supply result from rapid population growth had lead to the expansion of
cultivation in to land, generally, unsuitable for crop production and animal husbandry.
In Ethiopia, the impacts of rapid population growth on social and economic development

have

degradation of natural resource, change in climate, decline in land for housing rise in urban center to
constraint / building home, and soil erosion are the result of population. The traditional means of
exploiting natural resource have to be environmentally harmed full and economically unproductive.
As population rapidly increase in Ethiopia its impact on environment and resource is significant. These
are :deforestation is cut down trees for agriculture land ,wood and construction purpose, erosion and
land degradation by water and wind and land fragmentation that is majority farm house holds ,average
land size is now less than one hector per house holds.
The link between population and natural environment are highly related. The resource and environment
is linked with the survival of the society and inevitably with development. High population growth can
bring environmental changes that have affect on change in social organization and the change in social
organization has consequences on poverty cycle (Ibid, 2003).
B) Agricultural Land share
Ethiopians cultivating system is mostly by traditional which leads to shortening of fallow periods and
crop rotation that helped maintain soil fertility.This traditional means of cultivation have lead to increase
rate of erosion, but decrease agricultural production. High demand for new farm lands, for age for

15

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

livestock and fuel wood and charcoal for cooking have contributed significantly to the massive reduction
and destruction of forest and woodland resources (Befekadu, 2000).
Population growth is related to agricultural development through a chain of reaction that includes
decrease land share and crop productivity. In the north and central high land of Ethiopia were residential
patterns are dense, natural land scopes are significantly changed in contrast to the south west area were
the population density are relatively low. Thus, means large land mass of Ethiopian high land constituted
by Oromiya region high land is severely degraded by human factor.
The Ethiopia economy is highly influenced by agricultural production and land holding, because of
according to CSA, 80% of population live in rural areas and economically based on agriculture. This is
why Ethiopian economy is characterized by agrarian economy. Agriculture is supply of foodgrain, cash
crop,milk, dairy and meat product areknown not satisfies rapid population growth foodneed (Samson,
2002).
C) Unemployment and Migration
The measurement of the level national employment or un employment rate requires clarification of the
concept like; labor force, working age and productive activity .Unemployment are the working age who
are available for work and have actively sought work for employed, but unable to get job at the existing
wage. According to the ILO (2000) definition, the working age ranks from 15-59 year.
The rapid population growth increase working age group or new labor force to labor market. Young full
age structure in impacts on employment resource as a large number of people enter in to labor force
every year. In our country due to low economic level theeconomically active labor force absorbed
capacity of the economy is limited .The majority of young people entering the labor force market work
in traditional agricultural sector and this puts a heavy burden on natural resource, environment
condition, social securities and political issues. The problem of unemployment is high in urban area,
which results due to migration of people from rural to urban to search better job, good living standard
and better per capital income.
Migration is the movement of people in space, often involving change in usual place of residence
.Specially, migration have a number of various effect of reliving population resource in crowd area
,spending cultures from one area to an other an bringing group into contact and there by conflict.
16

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Similarly, many studies have proved that rural urban migration strongly affects the agricultural sector
in rural area by removing labor force from the area to urban (Herbert J. Gans, 1972).
Internal migration has the main effect of redistributing the population size between rural and urban
areas, and between rural areas of low potential to those of higher agricultural potential. Therefore,
internal migration is an important element of population dynamics in agricultural countries like Ethiopia,
where internal migration is insignificant by volume.
The over all inter regional flows have been from the northern region to the south west and south east
regions, as well as Finfinne (Addis Ababa) city .This indicates that the migrant have been moving out of
the densely populated eroded northern and central high lands to area with available land of agriculture
and better job opportunity .
D) Job Opportunity and Investment
In LDCs, like Ethiopia which have rapid population growth, it is difficult to create sustainable job
opportunity, because of a number of economic establishment are too few to absolve the large proportion
of the economically active labor forces. As projection indicates the size of working age (15-64)
population is higher than the investment job opportunity in the country. Several new job have to be
created every year to satisfy the growing working age population, but the job opportunity of socioeconomic investment in different sector are failed to satisfy the rapid growing population. In Ethiopia,
with weak economic capacity is un able to create sufficient new job, it implies low job opportunity and
investment, that increase unemployment people, resulting in increasing the number of people living
below poverty line having rapid population growth in an environment of weak economic structure.
In Ethiopia, the government ,NGO and private investment is grow at low rate, that create low job
opportunity

for rapid population growth ,special at urban area .due to short age of budget and

technology ,government investment in social service is low, which create more job opportunity for
currently unemployed labor force (Girma, 2003).

2.4.2 Social problems


A) Dependence ratio

17

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Dependence ratio is a measure of the degree of burden created by the unproductive population over the
productive population. Dependency ratio is expressed in percentage .the population of Ethiopia is pre
dominantly young. This is a direct result of high fertility rate. The table below shows the age distribution
of the population of Ethiopia.

Table 2.1
Year of survey

Age distribution of Ethiopian population in million


Percentage distribution of population by age
Under 15

15-64

65and above

1976

45.5

51.0

3.5

1986

48.1

47.1

4.8

1992

50.0

43.8

6.2

1998

43.8

53.1

3.1

2000

44.5

52

3.5

Source: CSA, 1999

As it is indicated in the above table, the age group below 15 and above 65 year account for almost
45percent.this would mean that only 55 percent of the population is economically active and there fore,
they support them self and rest of population. Ethiopia has large non-productive population, with large
dependent population, expenditure for education, health, shelter, food and basic service become very
high.
Rapid population growth produces a youthful population dominated by children those who are almost
unproductive economically, highly consuming rather than effectively producing product.
B) Social service provision
In fact, the effects of rapid population growth on social and economic development of public service are
complex and adverse in their nature. Obviously rapid population growth entrants with public education,
18

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

health, housing, food supply, employment opportunity, investment and the quality of the environment at
large. As population of Ethiopia growth rapidly, the demand for social service increase simultaneously
but the economic capacity of country failed to satisfies the demand of all societies (EEA, 2001).
Effects on health: Ethiopia has registered a poor health statutes and high rate of population growth with
weak economic development. The poor health status is largely attributable to prevent table infection
disease and nutritional deficiencies. Poverty cycle, low level of education, inadequate access to clean
water, shortage of sanitary facilities and poor access modern health facilities have contributed to the
poor health situation or status in Ethiopia.
Effects on education: the rapid population growth has resulted in growing demand for education. Now
days though school are being built, total number of students has increased enormously. Thus there are
still large number of children who do not get chance to go school especially in rural areas. In many
urban centers school have over crowded class rooms. to improve this situation a large sum of money on
building schools ,purchasing educational facilities and printing books as well as training the teachers
being invested but failed to satisfies rapid population growth of children population.
Effects on Housing: Ethiopia is currently facing a serious problem of housing due to limited supply.
The short age is aggravated by the high rate of growing of population and by the stagnation in the
construction of residential houses. Rapid population growth leads to high demand for housing shelter
and other social service. Homelessness is already a major part of the housing problem, mainly around
urban center. The number of homeless person or squatter who live in bus station, pavement and in any
open spaces has increased. In Ethiopia housing sector lack comprehensive policy, which create favorable
condition for housing market? Thus at present there is little change in construction of housing.
(Berhanu, 2000)

2.4.3 Political Problem


In addition to economic and social factor, there are also a series of political factors which are contributed
to the under development of the of the countrys economy. Political factor may include: crime, robbery
and conflict.
In Ethiopia the number of population grow highly, with out showing population growth, that result in
unemployment, migration, homeless, population density, low food supply and agricultural production
19

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

could fuel political instability and under development of economy. The rapid rate of urban population
growth which Ethiopia has been experiencing since last decade couples of year has reached level where
posses serious problem to national development and promotion of social welfare (Berhanu, 2000).

2.5 Population size and Trends


By 1900, the population of Ethiopia was 11.8 million. It had annual growth rate of 0.2 percent. After
1900, the population growth very fast, then between 1960 and1990 that is with in short time, the
population once again doubled. After 1970, populations reach 29.5 million with 26 year of doubling
time. In 2000, it reaches 63.4 million and 2.9 annual growth rates. This indicates Ethiopia population has
been growing rapidly. Obviously, rapid population change is a common demographic feature of LDCs.
The growth rate determines the time required for population to double (CSA, 2000).
Table 2.2 Trend of population size and growth of Ethiopia
Year(EC)

Total

population

Annual growth rate

(million)

(percentage/%)

1986

53.5

3.1

1992

63.4

2.92

1997

73.1

2.73

2002

83.5

2.62

2012

106.0

2.26

2022

126.1

1.85

Source: CSA; 1994 and 1999.

Further more, current trend of population growth in Ethiopia implies the population continues growing
into the future until a level of fertility moderation is reached. As projected Ethiopian population size will
reach a level of 81 million and 112 million in 2010 and 2025 year, respectively. It shows, Ethiopian
population is expanding rapidly and has direct effect on doubling time, which is in fact short.

20

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The population of Ethiopia is characterized by one of the fast growing population in the world and more
of population are agrarian and live in rural area. According to CSA in 2000, the population of Ethiopia
was estimated at 63.5 million, of this close to 54 million or 85 percent were live in rural area while the
remaining 9.4 million people or 15 percent were live in urban area.
Table 2.3
Year (EC)

Population of Ethiopia by residence in million


Urban population

Rural population

Total population

1986

7.3

46.2

53.5

1990

8.7

51.7

60.4

1992

9.4

54.0

63.49

1997

11.6

61.3

73.0

2000

14.3

62.1

76.4

Source: CSA; 1994 and 1999

The sex ratio seem to be moving towards 1:1exhabiting almost equal size of male to female ratio of
population. According to CSA, about 30.2 million or 50.4 percent were males as 29.8 million or 49.6
were female in 1998, but the female population slightly exceeds the male population in urban area while
the opposite is true in rural area. This is mainly explained by the higher female migration from rural
area to urban centers.
Table2.4 Population size by sex in million
Year(EC)

Male

Female

Total

1987

27.8

27.2

55.0

1992

31.9

31.7

63.6

1997

35.6

35.4

70.0

2000

37.2

38.4

75.6

2002

40.8

40.6

81.4

Source: CSA; 1994 and 1999

21

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

CHAPTER THREE
3.

DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA

3.1. GENERAL FEATURE OF BISHOFTU TOWN


Urbanization is abroad term encompassing a wide spectrum of process, activities and form of social
organization. The UN (2000) has recommended urban area to be localities with 2000 and more
inhabitant or population. The present urban system of Ethiopia is largely a product of historical process
of development in the late 19th and 20th century. The majority of urban centers of Oromia regional state
of east Shao zone had come to emerge with completion of east- central main road contribute a great role
for the development of town especially from Awash up to Finfinne (Addis Ababa) city.
Bishoftu town is one of the first ranked of Oromia regional. It was found at the center of Adaa Liban
district. The town was established around 1917 year in E.C. The term Bishoftu derives from the Oromic
language Bishooftuu which means as the land of excess water body. Literally speaking the word
Bishoftu is given to the town from locally existing of crater lakes. Therefore, the name Bishoftu is
driving from many water bodies that surround the town at near distance. Currently it is first ranked city
which is administered by major municipality administer and town cabine member.
Gradually, Bishoftu town had developed from a station center to small town in1976; it had 3280 hector
area of land. A decade later in 1986 area of town had grown to 3800 hector of land. In1996 the total land
area grows to 4500 hectare land and in 2001 it had increased into 14500 hector of land. At present day
for administrative simplicity, the town is divided into 9 kebeles administrative and 3 sub-town special
administrative. The first master plan of the town was made in 1961E.C and revised in 1988, 1992 and
2001 E.C. The municipality of the town was founded around 1943 year in E.C.
The physical location of town is situated between 8 o45-8o47 north latitude and 38o56- 39o01
longitudes. It is located at distance of 47 km south east of Finfinne (Addis Ababa) city and 52km from
Adama city in the north direction. The foundation of Bishoftu town was directly related the starting of
Ethio-Djiboute rail way in 1917 E.C. The town is bordered with peasant association. The town had been
found on top of mountain ranges from 1800-1990metres above sea level. The town is part and parcel of
22

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

the rift valley. It belong to proper woina degas zone of agro climate. Its average temperature and rain fall
are 18o and 816mm respectively. May is the hottest month and November is the coldest month for the
town. December and July are the driest and most rainy month of the year with 2mm and 204mm of rain
fall, respectively.
Urban agriculture is growing plant and rising of animal for different purpose. In Bishoftu town, the
urban agriculture is playing the great role in creating source of income for the majority of urban dwellers
and has a great revenue source for the town. It creates job opportunity for more than 1420 people. The
majority of these peoples are females that account 13 percents. Generally, from all economic sectors this
urban agriculture is cover about 25 percent of job opportunity.
Population dynamic of town settlement area is the result of fertility, mortality and migration. Those
demographic processes are complex phenomena that affected by social, cultural, economic, political and
psychological factor. In urban environment migration has predominant role in changing the population
characteristics and reflects the urbanization of town.
Currently in 2000 EC Bishoftu town has a total of 182,534 populations. The population grow rate of
town is about 3.7 percent per annual. From this total population 47.8 percent are males and 52.2 percent
are females, as well as ,the age distribution of population is about 36.7 percent and 3.3 percent are under
age 15 and above 64 age respectively ,while 60 percent of population are ages between 15-64 year.
Table3.1 Total population size of Bishoftu town.
sex
male

female

total

1984

35058

38314

73372

1994

47010

45012

92022

1998

49230

47180

96410

2000

62110

65370

127480

2002

90340

92194

182534

Year

Source: Bishoftu town annual report of 2000 and 2002 E.C.

23

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The Bishoftu town socio-economic activities are more developing than previous year. The main source
of economic activities of town is agriculture sector production that account 32 percent share of total
production and revenue, the remain social engage in industrial accounts 25 percent and social services
sector accounts about 15 percent share of the town economy. The town economy mainly based on town
agriculture product
Social service is one of the basic needs for human that provides by Bishoftu town administration to the
town societies. The town public service distribution is the major indicator of its development in terms of
quantity and quality services. The town social services is grow at low rate as compared to rapid
population growth rate of the town, that result in short age of social services provision due short age of
budget, human resource, modern technology and materials.
The suitable weather condition of the town is one of the factors which contributed to its high population
growth. The town has great potentially in different development areas. Especially the existence of many
natural lakes in the town has made great opportunity for the development of Hotel and Tourism. The
major tourist attractive lakes are: LakeBishoftu, Arsadi, Chalaka (seasonal), Hado, Kiruftu,
Babogaya and Kilole have natural, cultural and religious tourist attractive sites. Now a day, Bishoftu
town has selected as the tourist attractive center at regional state of Oromia and at Federal state of the
country.

CHAPTER FOUR
4. Data analysis and presentation
24

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

This section presents the information collected from fifty (50) residents of the town. This information is
collected through interview questionnaire. To select these individuals simple random sampling was used
to select respondent. In addition, the paper presents the information collected from different offices of
Bishoftu town administration and kebele 01, 02 and 03. The study is conduct on random sample select of
kebele 01,02 and 03 of town that have more rapid population growth and its impact on socio-economic
development related to other kebele of town. The random selected kebele are out of nine Kebele of
Bishoftu towns.
4.1 Demographic data of respondents
4.1.1 Age of the respondents
The distribution of respondents by age group is presented in the following table.
Table 4.1 Distribution of respondents by age.
Age

Number

of

Respondent in

Average

Standard

group

respondent

<20

16

20-35

22

44

5.5

36-50

13

26

3.25

>50

7
Total

50

deviation (SD)

14

1.75

100

12.5

6.856

Source: own survey, 2002

As the above table show the age distribution of respondent on average and standard deviation are equal
to 12.5 and 6.856 respectively. The high percentage of respondents age is between 20-35 ages that are
44 percent. This table shows that more of the town ages are found between age 20-35 and 36-50 ages. It
shows the more of the town society are economically active in productivity.

4.1.2 Sex of respondent


The distribution of respondent by sex group
Table 4.2 Distribution of respondent by sex
Sex

Number of respondent

Respondent in %

25

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT


Male

28

56

Female

22

44

Total

50

100

Source: field survey, 2002

As the above table shows, among the respondents 28 (56 percent) of total respondents are male, while
the remaining 22 (44 percent) are female. It implies that the percentage share of male population is
greater than the female. This is due to immigration of more male to the town from surrounding areas to
search better job opportunity and for education purpose.
4.1.3 Family size of respondent
The following table shows family size of the respondent.
Table 4.3 Family size of respondents
Family size

Number

of

Respondent

in

Average

respondent

percentage

1-4

28

56

9.3

5-9

12

24

4.0

>9

10

20

3.3

Total

50

100

16.6

Standard
deviation(SD)

9.87

Source: own survey, 2002 EC

The above table show that the family size of respondent, majority of them has 1-4 family
members is 56 percentages, 5-9is 24 percentage and greater than 9 are 20 percentages. The
standard deviation of the respondent is 9.87. It implies that majority of the town population
have children between 1-4, this shows the declined of fertility rate in the town, this is due
to expansion of modern health center and improved provision of family planning in the
town.
4.1.4 Educational level of respondents
The following table predicts the educational back ground of the respondents.
Table 4.4 Educational level of respondent
26

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT


Education level

Number of respondents

Respondent in %

Illiterate

10

Basic and primary

14

Secondary and high school

12

24

Technical /vocation/

15

30

Higher education

11

22

Total

50

100

Source: own survey 2002 EC

As the above table shows most of the respondent are educated at technical (10 +1 and 10+2) that is 15
(30 percent) of total respondents. These group followed by those who are completed secondary and high
school that is 12 (24 percent) .More over, 5 (10percent), 7(14 percent) and 11 (22 percent) are illiterate,
basic and primary education and higher education (college and universities) training respectively. This
explains that the majority of the town population educational levels are at technical level. This shows
that more of society educational back ground is around high school and technical training.

4.1.5 Work condition of respondents


The following table shows the work condition of total respondents.
Table 4.5 work condition of the respondents
Are you currently

Number of respondent

employed

Respondent

in

average

Standard
deviation

Yes

38

76

19

No

12

24

Total

50

100

25

<500

10

1.25

500-1000

12

24

3.0

Monthly income

27

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT


1000-2000

14

28

3.5

>2000

14

1.25

Total

28

76

9.5

4.2

<4

14

28

4.5

5-9

10

20

3.3

>9

14

28

4.6

Total

38

76

12.6

2.3

Work experience

Source: own survey 2002 EC

The above table shows that majority of the respondent are currently employed that is 76 percent or 19 on
average and those who did not employ are 24 percent or 6 on average. Majority of respondent monthly
income is between 1000-2000 that accounts 28 percent or 3.5 on average, 500-1000 is about 24 percent
or 3.0 percent, and greater than 2000 is 14 percentages or 1.25 on average and income less than 500 is
10 percent or 1.25 on average. The standard deviation of respondents monthly income is 4.2. Majority
of the respondent work experience is less than 4 year and greater than 9 year that is 24 percentage and
4.5on average. The remain 20 percent are between 5-9 year and 3.3 on average. The standard deviation
of respondent work experience is about 2.3. This implies that the town societies more of them are
currently employed, their monthly income is more than 500 birr and most of them work experience is
less than 4 and above 9 year. It shows that majority of society have job, earn medium monthly income
and have more work experience of job.
4.1.6 Housing condition of respondents.
The following table shows, the housing condition of respondent.
Table 4.6 Housing condition of respondents
House ownership

Number of respondents

Respondent in%

Owned

22

44

Government

16

Rented

14

28

Other

12

28

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT


Total

50

100

Wood with mud

30

60

Blocket

10

20

Metal

12

Other

Total

50

100

1-4

26

52

5-9

16

32

>9

16

Total

50

100

House building materials

Number of rooms

Source: own survey 2002 EC

As the above table shows about the house ownership of respondent have their own house that is 22 (44
percent), 8(16 percent) is government house, 14 (28percent) is rented house and 6(12 percent) is owner
of others (children, NGO, gift and relatives house). Most of the respondents home building materials are
wood with mud that is 30 (60 percent), the remaining 10(20 percent) build from blocket, 6(12 percent)
from metal and 4(8 percent) are from other materials such as plastic, glass and stone. Majority of the
respondent house number of rooms is between 1-4 rooms that is 26 (52 percent), 16(32 percent )rooms
5-9 and 8(16 percents) respondent have greater than ten(>10) rooms. It shows most of the town societies
have their own house which majority of home build from wood with mud in which more of the societys
house room are between 1-4 for their family.

4.2 Data Analysis on Population


4.2.1 Determinants of rapid population growth in Bishoftu town
Determinant of population change bring about difference in the size and characteristics of population of
a given social environment. The main determinant of population growth in Bishoftu town includes
fertility, mortality and migration. The companied effects of them control the structural change of
population in the town. The stage of socio-economic and demographic development of the town society
29

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

in turn determines the level of each factor. Those demographic processes are complex phenomena
affected by social, economical and political factors.
Population dynamic refers to the increase or decrease in total population size due to birth rate, death
rate and migration. It can express as:
Total population = Birth rate Death rate + Migration
Fertility: is concerned with the actual reproductive performance of population. The major factor that
contributes to higher fertility in Bishoftu town are early marriage, low status and empowerment of
woman, socio- cultural factors, sex preference and low usage of family planning methods. According to
annual report of town in 2001 EC, today the size of Bishoftu town is one of the larger among the town of
Oromia regional state. The high fertility rate of town is likely to continue to rise and rapid population
growth rate cause a decline in resource human ratio, per capital income and degradation of natural
resources. The fertility rate of Bishoftu town is 3.7 percent on average per year in 2000EC.
Mortality: is occurrence of death, that forces life to go out of being. In Bishoftu town the main cause of
mortality are low standard living, nutrition, medical service, personal hygiene and environmental
sanitation. In fact and maternal mortality are decreasing due to increase in social living standard of the
town.
Migration: is the movement of people across specified boundary area for purpose of new residence and
job search. Migration has direct effect on geographic distribution and differential growth of population
in the town. Rural town migration of labor force from rural agriculture to modern industrial and service
sector is increasing that decrease labor absorb of the town economy, that result in town unemployment
and shortage of social service.
Table 4.7 Bishoftu town determinant of population
Year(E.C)

Determinant of population
Birth

death

Net

migration

Total

population

1994

88986

8968

12000

92018

1996

95578

7.4

8023

1.1

15965

3.1

103520

1.2

1998

118719

2.4

10735

2.03

22140

3.8

130124

2.5

30

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2000

156308

3.1

12854

1.9

30272

3.6

173726

2.5

2002

181909

1.6

15245

1.8

35870

1.8

182534

0.5

Source: Bishoftu town labor and social affair, 2002 E.C.

Net migration =in migration out migration of town


Total population =birth + net migration death
The above table shows that between 1994-2002 year the town determinant of population growth shows
increment on average. Birth rate is high (7.4%) in 1996, death rate is high (2.03%) in1998, net migration
registered high score (3.8%) in 1998 year and total population growth rate reach its maximum (2.5%)
in1998 and 2000 year. This implies that in the town determinant of population rises by showing
fluctuation in growth rate of population. As this determinant of population especially birth rate and net
migration increases the town population growth.

4.2.2 Rural urban migration of people in the town


Many factors attribute to increase the town population. Rural urban migration is one of the forms
internal migrations often viewed as main causes of urban growth in LDCs. Rural-urban migration and
the existing natural increase the population of town. Now a day, rural-urban migration condition in the
town center brings problems that have been become wider due to migration and unemployment in the
town.
The respondent respondents in the question why most of rural people are migrate to town? show that,
majority of respondent response that is 40 (80 percent) are to search better job and income and the
remaining respondent are for education, better social service and good living condition in the town. It
implies that majority the rural people migrated to the town to search better job opportunity in urban area
industrial and service sector.
4.2.3

Consequencesof

rapid

population

growth

on

the

town

Socio-economic development
The impact of rapid population growth of the town on social and economic development is complex and
adverse in their nature. The situation of population adversely affects the process of development. This
31

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

is true in developing urban area like Bishoftu town, where rapid population growth possesses serious
threat to development efforts. Rapid population growth highly interacts with land share, social service,
food production, employment opportunity, per capital in come, quality of natural resource and
environment at large.
In urban area, continued urban rapid population growth has brought human number in to decrease in
ratio of required natural resource that sustains them. Hence to day, one can identify a mis-match between
sluggish socio-economic development and existing rapid population growth in the urban area (Fesesu,
2002).
A brief out line of the consequences of rapid population growth on some social and economic aspect are
explained as follows.
A. Land share and agricultural productivity
In the town, land share and agricultural production have inverse relation with the rapid population
growth. As population of town growth rapidly their demands for land share increase that diminish land
share in the societies. The town agricultural production development affected by both physical and
human factor. The agricultural land holding of societies is less than one hector per house holds.
Agriculture is at a subsistence level in the town, because of this, crop production is below the food
requirement of population. This is resulted due to fragmentation of agriculture land, soil degradation,
dependence on rain fed agriculture, low usage of fertility, lack of technology and capital are the main
constraint. Currently, agriculture and food production development of urban area focus in improvement
in agricultural sector.
B. Dependence ratio
Dependence ratio is the ratio of under age 15 and aged population over 65 age to the economically
active population between 15-64 year. In Bishoftu town due to rapid population growth of children
population dependence ratio is high. As population growth rapidly the number of dependence ratio
increases in the societies. This rises of highly children population have impact on active labor force and
house holds, it puts more burden the town sustainable development.

32

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Table 4.8 Population size of Bishoftu town by age group.


Age group

1990

1995

1998

2001

0-14

32135(37.7%)

31857(32.6%)

45250(34.7%)

63882(36.5%)

15-64

48680(57%)

60245(61.8%)

77351(59.6%)

102637(58%)

Above 65

4575(5.3%)

5328(5.4%)

7523(5.7%)

9860(5.5%)

Total

85390

97430

130124

176379

Source: Bishoftu town annual report in 2001 EC.

One of the impacts of rapid population growth on the socio- economic development is high dependence
ratio of less than15 ages and above 65 ages on average 35.4 percent and 5.5 percent respectively. The
working age of 15-64 age group account 60 percent and non-working age of 0-14 and the elder are
largely depend on economically active societies for their daily basic need.
C. Unemployment
Like any other phenomena in economics the ultimate state of unemployment is depend on supply
demand of labor force. The factor that influence the supply of labor and the state of economy increases
labor and labor market environment that raises active population to join the labor force. The demand for
the labor is determined by the state of the economy and the policies followed to generate pinned by the
scope technologic know how to attend at the time (EEA, 2005/06).
In Bishoftu town societies with rapid population growth, it is difficult to create sustainable job
opportunities. Under limited condition of urban economy development of the town economy, rapid
population growth with more labor force which cannot be utilized natural resource effectively. Such
situation in fact aggravates the problem of unemployment and dependence ratio over the slowly growing
economy (Fessesu, 2002).

33

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The rapid population growth of town increases working age group to the town economy. The majority of
young people entering the labor market work in urban agriculture, construction of investment and
industries and this put heavy burden on the town economy.
Table 4.9 the growth of population, labor force, unemployment

and rural- urban migration in Bishoftu town from

1990-2002 E.C.
Year

Total

Gro

Active

Growt

Total

Growth

Rural-urban

Growth

(E.C)

population

wth

labor

h rate

unemploymen

rate

migration

rate

rate

force

1990

85390

48680

5840

10545

1995

97850

1.4

60245

2.3

7965

3.6

14890

4.1

1998

130124

3.2

77351

2.8

10023

3.5

20140

3.5

2000

173726

3.35

10263

3.2

12472

2.4

25238

2.5

1.7

15800

2.6

28960

1.4

7
2002

182534

0.5

12082
0

Source: Bishoftu town labor and social affairs in 2002 EC.

As population growth, labor force, unemployment and rural-urban migration of town have been
increasing from 1990-2002 years. In 2002 the total population of the town is 182,534 with the
population growth rate of 3.7 percent per annual. From 1990-2002 the population of town increased
from 85390 to 182534 with an average population growth rate of 3.85 percent. From 1990-2002 the
economically active labor force of the town growth from 48680 to 120820, the total unemployment was
5840 to 15800 and the rural urban migration of the town growth from 10545 to 28960 people. All these
are increase as population of the town increase simultaneously and they have their own consequence on
the town economy. This table implies that birth rate and rural-urban migration increases population in
which these growth of population rises the active labor force in the town ,these high labor force
increases the number of unemployment people in the because of the limited capacity of town economy.
D. Social services

34

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The rapid rate of urban population growth which Bishoftu town is experiencing reach the level were it
possess problem to the town development and the production of social service and social welfare. In
Bishoftu town the situation of rapid population growth adversely affect the public service distribution
and development. Rapid population growth interacts with public education, health, housing, food
production, land holding, employment and the equity of the environment at large.
Education, health and housing service relation ship with rapid population growth of Bishoftu town are
discussed as follows:

Education service
In the town rapid population growth has resulted in growing demand for education. In the town social
encouragement have been done in the case of increasing enrollment rate of the student. Currently many
schools are built by government, NGO and private, however, the total number of students has increased
enormously. With rapid increase in enrolment relative to teaching facilities the quality of education has
affected. In the town school are over crowded by students in the class room.
Table 4.10 Total number of schools, students, teachers and quality measures of the town in 2000
Level of school

Total
No
school

of

Total No

Total No

Quality measures

of

of

Teacher-

Classroom-

Text

students

teachers

student

student

book

ratio

ratio

student
ratio

Kinged

38

4829

165

1:27

1:35

1:1

46

25552

635

1:41

1:52

1:1.25

7762

178

1:45

1:58

1:1.2

1690

54

1:40

1:63

1:1.3

896

40

1:40

1:56

garten(K.G)
Elementary
school(1-8)
Secondary
school

(9-10)

Preparatory
school (11-12)
TVET

(10+1

&10+2)
Source: Bishoftu town education bureau in2000 E.C

35

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

As the above table shows the total number of schools, students and teachers are increase from year to
year, as enrolment rate increases and reach 94,40,729 and 1072 in 2000 year respectively. The quality of
measure of education in terms of teacher-student ratio, class -room student ratio and the text bookstudent ratio have all increased on average ,it reaches1:38.6, 1:52.8 and 1:1.18 respectively. Thus the
quality of education is directly affected by the rapid growth of school age children.
Health services

According to Bishoftu town health bureau, the town has register improvement in health status and high
rate of population growth. The health status of town is largely attributable to preventable in defection
disease and nutritional deficiencies. The health status of people has been affected by the poor quality of
health services in the town. This problem had been aggravated by shortage of trained health personal and
by the lack of drugs and pharmaceutical supply.
The burden of disease in the town is dominated by pre-natal, maternal conduction, acute respiratory
infection, malarias, nutrition deficiency, diarrhea and AIDS. All these disease put together account for
60 percent of all death in the town. The growing health problem in the urban societies, particularly in
developing urban area has a damaging effect on the development process. As the population grows
rapidly, the demand for health service increase ,but the town health service failed to satisfy these
population, these condition have increase death and bring problem on health atmosphere of social live
and economy .
Table 4.15 Total number of health center, its ratio and human power in the town in 2002EC.
Type of health center

Total

number

of

Health

center

Human

power

health center

population ratio

health sector

Hospital

1:60844.6

174

Clinic

15

1:12168.9

78

Health center

1:60844.6

35

Pharmacies

22

1:6933.36

34

1:182534

Rural drug vendor

1:60844.6

Total

47

1:3883.7

344

Malaria

controlling

center

36

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

in

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Source: Bishoftu town health office in 2002 EC.

As the above table shows, the total number of health center and facilities in the town in 2002 EC,the
total number of health center reaches 47 , the total proportion of health center to population is about
1:3883.7 and the number of trained human power in the sector is about 344 person.

Housing service
Housing is one of the basic needs of human being. Types of houses of the town are major indicator of
the level of its development. It is not only the number that matters but also the quality of constructional
materials. Bishoftu town is currently facing a serious problem of housing due to limited supply of its
service. The short age is aggravated by the high rate of growth of the urban population and by the
stagnation in the construction of residential houses. Generally, as population growth rapidly the
proportion or ratio of house are decreases.
In Bishoftu town there are about 25000 houses that provide different function. The common features of
housing units in Bishoftu town sampled kebeles are as follows:

Most of housing units are built from convential materials likes timber, mud, and
corrugated iron sheet.

Most of the housing units are attached to one another.

Most of the housing units have floor with tiles made of from the mud. Most of the housing
units lack the essential services.

There are great disparities in the standard of houses quality.


Because of these problem majority of urban housing condition are relatively remained poor but the town
population growth rapidly that create more demand for housing than supply of housing services.

E. Degradation of resource and environment

37

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The relationships between population with resource and environment are highly related and have
indirect relation ship with rapid rate of population growth in the town. The population carrying capacity
of resource and environment has declined because of high growth of population creates more demand
for resource. In Bishoftu town sampled kebeles, population growth, size, structure and spatial
distribution have a significant factor by affecting the resource and environment.
In Bishoftu town, rapid population growth has bought human number in to collision with resource. This
is because of rapid population growth increase demand for natural resource but its supply is naturally
limited. Clearly, more people require more food, fuel wood, construction material and necessity of life.
As a result, with rapid population growth, the town already faced agricultural short age, depleted water
resource, limited trees and wood supply, and degradation of soil.
Bishoftu town were found on the high land area of the Oromia region. Rapid growth of population has
its own consequences on the implementation of deforestation, soil erosion, land degradation and
eventually environmental degradation. These main problems directly affect the health condition of
socio-economic development of the town economy (Abdi, 2000).

4.2.4. Measures to reduce rapid population growth


The town main measures on population growth are used as guide line to create good relationship
between population growth of the town and resources. In the town sampled kebeles, more efforts are on
growing to sensitize the population on environment, natural resource, social service, land share, job
opportunity and sustainable development. Regarding to this, effort made by the town on population
explosion using all possible mechanisms basically reducing high fertility rate through improved family
planningprovision, changing social preferences of children and empowerment of women as well as
decreasing rural urban high migration of people.
Female literacy improved health service, improved per capital income, and living standard , greater
economic opportunity for women, increasing social awarenesss , family planning and contraceptive
method brings reduction in fertility rate form 8 % to 4% on average in 2000 year. Types of family
planning and contraceptive method used in the town more known are breast feeding,
condom;diaphragm, pills, inject able contraceptive, Norplant implants and calendar method are known
in the town (Tola, 20001).
38

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

4.2.5. Population growth and socio-economic development in the town


In developing urban area like Bishoftu town, the relationship between rapid population growth and
socio-economic development have indirect relationship due to imbalance between population growth
and economic development.
Diagram 4.1 population growth and development inter relation ship of the town
Population dynamics
.fertility
.mortality
.migration

Population
.population size and
growth
.population structure
.population distribution
.population sex and age

Development
.social service
.job opportunity
.resource and environment
.food security and per capital
income

The above diagram shows that the influence on population operates through population dynamic
(fertility, mortality, migration), while that of population on development of economy can be explained in
terms of size, structure, age, and growth of population. According to Bishoftu town sample kebele since
population size and growth are high, so it is difficult to improve over all social and economic
development of the town. Because of population structure is dominated under 15age population, those
who are dependent on economically active society. It also indicated over population of the town results
unemployment, environmental destruction, diminish land share, and shortage of social services like
education, health and housing services.

39

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Notice: the researcher dropped out the irrelevant questionnaire, because those questions are not essential
or necessary in the analysis part, their idea was analyzed as the town, due to this those question did not
discussed in the research analysis part. The irrelevant questionnaires are question number: part
one(1.1,1.5,1.7,2.1,2.2,2.6,2.7,2.8,2.9)andpart two(1.1,1.2,1.4,1.5,1.6,1.7,1.8,1.9,2.0,2.1,2.2,2.3,2.4,2.5).

CHAPTER FIVE
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
40

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

5.1. Conclusion
The main determinants of population growth of the town were high fertility rate, increase in rural-urban
migration and decrease in mortality rate over the study period. In this respect, the study provide that
rapid population growth in the town sampled kebeles is the result of high birth rate and rise in migration
of people from surrounding rural area in to the town. The stage of socio-economic and demographic
development factor (social, cultural, economic and political) of the town societies in turn determines the
level of fertility and rural urban migration. Fertility rate and immigration increases the population
growth, while mortality and emigration decrease population of the town.
More over, the study confirmed that the impact of rapid population growth is the outcome of unbalanced
growth between population and socio-economic activities of the town. Rapid population growth of the
town resulted in: diminishing land share, increase in unemployment, high rural-urban migration and
inadequate creation of job opportunity, rise in under 15 age population, dependence ratio, shortage of
social service provision, degradation of natural resource and environment are the main impacts of
population that adversely affect the process of social and economic development in the town. In the
town high growth of population with limited supply of good and services, result in low development of
social and economic transformation of the societies.
Regarding

to

this

as

the

study

proofs

in

the

Bishoftu

town

the relationship between population growth and economic development of the town were negatively
related because of mismatch between rapid population growth and low economic development. The
strong relationship between population growth and socio-economic development is the area of food
production, per capital income, investment and production of goods, distribution of social service, land
share , basic need, infrastructure facilities, natural resources and sustainable economic development that
unbalanced with the present population growth of sample kebeles society.

5.2. Recommendation
Government should reduce rapid population growth in the town through well conducted population
policy that can address the main population growth impact through successfully accomplish of plans
41

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

such as; expanding job opportunity, social service distribution, infrastructure facilities, proper utilization
or mobilization of resource, protection of environment and reduction of rural- urban migration.
Government should motivate participation of private and NGOs investment by creating better conducive
environment for investment to expand more job opportunity, to increase production of good and
services, to reduce dependence ratio and unemployment, increase per capital income and improving
living standard of the society.
The regional and federal government should improve living condition of societies through, better
provision of social service, expansion of investment and increase in production, raising per capital
income, improving provision of contraceptive method, increasing social awareness on impact of
population growth on economic development and enabling family control of their fertility.
The Bishoftu town administration should reduce rapid population growth and its impact on social and
economic development of town by taking some measurements as follows

Expanding modern health center, provision of better community based family planning and
distribution of serviceby proper mobilization of resources
Raising economic opportunity, educational status and empowerment of women because women
have more responsibility of rearing or bearing of children than man.

Increasing social awareness on low demand for children and impact of rapid population
growth on the town socio-economic development.

Maintain and improving the carrying capacity of the environment by taking appropriate
environmental
protection and conservation measures to achieve sustainable development in the town.

42

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

REFERENCE
Bo Malmberg (2004), population growth and socio- economic development, lesson press, Addis
Ababa-Ethiopia.
Fessessu, N (2002), Geography text book grade 12,Mega printing press, Addis Ababa-Ethiopia.
Ministry of Finance and Economic development (MOFED),Population andreproductive health,
2008.master printing press, Addis Ababa-Ethiopia.
Michael P.T. and Stephens, S, Economic Development, tenth edition, 2009, New York University, USA.
Befekadu.D and Birhanu, N, (1999/2000), Annual report on the Ethiopian economy,volume 1,
2000E.C, Ethiopian Economic Association Press, Addis Ababa-Ethiopia.
Girma, K, (2003),population, labor force and unemployment in the primitive city of Ethiopia,
Volume 25, Artistic printer press, Addis Ababa-Ethiopia.
Abdi Ifa, Annual Report of Bishoftu town, 2001EC, Biftu printing press, Addis Ababa -Ethiopia.
43

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS

IMPACT OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Firaol Gadissa, Annual Report of Oromia, 2000EC, Firomsa printing press,Addis Ababa -Ethiopia.

44

THE MORE YOU TRY, THE MORE YOU SUCCESS