Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
RCHER
P.O. BOX 19683,
No. 9, 1986
CHRISTCHURCH
·THE LIST'
Siple Station
I
,
,
6
BAITING THE BEAR
THREATS TO THE SOVIET PACIFIC FLEET "Today, the Pacific is becoming especially
by Dennis Small significant as an area of super-power rivalry
and a potential battleground ... it is also the
The growth of the Soviet Navy under Admiral
focus of a U.S. propaganda campaign to keep
Gorshkov is considered to be one of the major
strategic developments since World War H. Being the N.Z. and other nations within the nnclear
most visible expression of Soviet power it is often fold."
represented as the most dramatic example of the
Soviet Threat to the West. But today the greater part Russians of achieving these objectives? Some con
of the Soviet Navy still consists of surface warships servative analysts allow their biases to constantly con
and submarines with limited capabilities to operate found their answers to these questions. They
on the open ocean, let alone to challenge Western emphasise the threat as they see it of ultimate Soviet
dominance of the high seas. ( 1) A comparison in world domination in contradiction to some of the
1982 of US/USSR naval system technology level by very facts they marshall in support of their thesis.
the U.S. Department of Defence assessed the U.S.S.R. For instance, while warning of Soviet aggression,
as superior only in one category- mine warfare. (2) Garrity notes that the Soviet objective must be to
In all others, the U.S.S.R. continues to lag well prevent an effective alliance among China, Japan and
behind the U.S. the U.S. (5) Is this objective basically defensive or
While legitimate concern should focus on the offensive? When Garrity refers to the Soviet desire to
future development of the Soviet Navy and its restructure a balance of power which has favoured
possible expansion in the direction of a global inter the U.S. since 1945, he understates the problems now
ventional}' rather than a self-defence capability) it is faced by the U.S.S.R. in that he ignores the greatest
clear that the U.S.S.R's current naval forces are post-World War II restructuring of the balance of
severely limited in their power projection by a com power in the Far East -� the Sino�Soviet split and
bination of factors. This situation will exist well into subsequent Sino-American co-operation. This Soviet
the foreseeable future. setback obviously induced much of its big military
In the following discussion emphasis is placed on build up during the seventies. Ninety percent of the
the Pacific and to some extent Anti-Submarine greatly increased Soviet ground forces in the Far East
Warfare (ASW) in that region. The convergence of are directed against China and its "growing nuclear
geographical and technological vulnerability in the capability". (3) Garrity himself admits that the
case of the Soviet Pacific Fleet is also generally Soviet defensive perimeter "from Aden to the Kuriles
applicable t o those other regions where the Soviet is tenuous at best."
Navy operates. Today, the Pacific is becoming espec Analysts .
ially significant as an area of super-power rivalry and Dr Dara Alves, touted as "one of the few writers
a potential battleground. (3) This region is increas of the day on maritime strategy", is another who
ingly subject to the process of nuclear militarisation. offers a confused interpretation of Soviet intentions
It is also the focus of a U.S. propaganda campaign to and capabilities. (6) She emphasises the Soviet
keep N.Z. and other nations within the nuclear fold. potential to interdict SLOe yet recognises that recent
Constraints Soviet submarine activity in the Pacific may be "to
Those critical of American-led propaganda, which counter growing US-Chinese co-operation, which
continually alleges a Soviet threat to the Western must appear threatening." At the same time, she says
Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC), have rigbtly that Western and allied SLOC will become even more
made much of the geographical constraints on the valuable, and tempting targets given this co-operation.
Soviet Navy. Not only do the Soviets have to divide As if the Soviets would rationally risk the conse
their Navy into four separate fleets -- the Pacific, quences of interdicting SLOe when such actions
Northern. Baltic and Black Sea Fleets - but these would inevitably elicit not only massive jOint retalia�
fleets all need to navigate narrow channels before tion but very probably trigger a global holocaust.
reaching the main oceans. "The U .S. and its allies Alves's fantasies even run to the effect that the
could close these channels using mines and numerous U.S.S.R. wants to control Australia's minerals �
anti-submarine planes, ships and subrparines." (4) about as remote a practicable possibility as can be
As Dr Patrick J. Garrity pOints out, there has been imagined,
a continuing search by Russia, a traditionally land Analyst Paul Dibb, a senior research fellow in the
based power, for a strategic perimeter and this search Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Aust
has taken the form of a naval push outwards from the ralian National Unive'rsity and a former deputy
Eurasian continent. (5) This strategic perimeter director of the Joint Intelligence Organisation in the
broadly parallels the line of Soviet blue water access. Australian Department of Defence, rightly emphasises
Protection of the Russian coastline and of the ball the Russian perception of the threat from the
istic missile submarine fleet (SSBN's) remains the "growing relationship between China, the U.S. and
principal tasks of the Soviet Navy. ( 1) Japan." In a crisis Soviet forces would face an
Soviet Objectives enormous array of enemy firepower and only a relat
The question of Soviet naval expansionism can be ively few, largely obsolescent submarines would be
resolved into two basic questions �(a) what are available for "the interdiction of ports and SLOC in
Soviet objectives? and, (b) how capable are the the entire Pacific and Indian Oceans". (7)
The drawing at right and photo below are from the 7
US Government publication 'Soviet Military Power
1985'. The Pentagon stresses the size of the Russian
Typhoon-Class SSBN. In fact the Typhhoon's size
makes it vulnerable to tracking by US ASW forces.
Greater size than the US Trident but less fr i e
power and greater vulnerability.
Conflict Potential
Sometimes those who believe there is a serious Defence Weekly: "The fact that the Soviets now have
Soviet threat 10 our sealanes even indirectly acknow Cam Ranh Bay means that the life-line of the West in
ledge the absurdity of their own position. Captain the South China Sea will be permanently threatened
John Moore. editor of 'Jane's Fighting Ships', aptly by the Bear's Claw." (13) Such concern has been
states: "The forms of maritime conflict are so varied faithfully echoed by our own Ministry of Defence.
that the chances of an escalatory process are probably (14)
higher at sea than elsewhere". (8) Yet the Americans In the lane's Defence Weekly article cited above,
themselves are escalating the conflict potential at sea. 'the Cam Ranh Bay base is variously described as a
With the current U.S. policy of aggressive and unpred threat to the SLOC, the U.S. bases in the Philippines,
ictable marihme manoeuvres, especially in the to China and to Japan . Yet with these potential
Northern Pacii1c the onc border where Soviet and enemies and others pressing so close in on it, the
U .S. forces directly confront each other -- the risks of Soviet Union is virtually pressured into breaking out
accidental war involving the superpowers have mult through what it must realistically see as an encircling
iplied frighteningly. (9) Former U.S. Pacific hostile alliance. Significantly, the Soviet Union was
Commander, Admiral Robert Long, has stated that first given regular access to bases in Vietnam in 1979
the Asia/Pacific region "is most probably where we after China attacked Northern Vietnam in reprisal for
shall wHnes)) confrontation with the Soviet Union." Hanoi's invasion of Kampuchea. And Hanoi's in
(10) Similarly, in 1983 the Commander in Chief of vasion was in response to Khmer Rouge attacks.
the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Admiral Sylvester Foley, The Western militarist ploy is either to suggest
warned of potential conflict in the South China Sea. threats to individual countries or to suggest a vague
(11) generalised threat and to ignore the fact that any
Cam Ranh Bay serious maritime engagement would ineVitably initiate
The Western SLOe scare stems from a calculated a chain reaction involving all the powers in the region.
propaganda strategy on the part of the U.S. Navy. In its confused way the 'Jane's' article itself actually
(12) At present, in the Pacific it takes its most acknowledges that the Russians could not cope with
concrete form with respect to the Soviet deployment the Americans alone. It states that even if the U.S.S.R.
at Cam Ranh Bay. According to an article in Jane's were to peunanently deploy an aircraft carrier battle
8 group at Cam Ranh Bay, "it could not cope with the
mighty power of the U.S. carrier battle group." "The Soviet Pacific fleet is bigger than that
Furthermore the article also recognises that the base
of the V,S. because its size is inflated by
"needs continuous supply from Vladivostock to
maintain its effectiveness as a forward base". hundreds of patrol craft, mine-sweepers and
Obviously, this supply line - let alone the critical sea old, noisy, diesel-electric submarines which
supply line from European Russia to Vladivostock are useful only for local defence,"
itself - is very vulnerable to interdiction by the West
and its Far Eastern/Pacific allies. Once again we see
how Western militarist analyses so often use facts the 105 U.S. ships. It is not just that the major U.S.
which contradict their own scare-mongering. In late surface ships are mostly of tqe larger types; typically,
1984 Admiral Crowe, Commander-in-Chief of U.S. American aircraft-carriers, .cruisers, destroyers and
forces in the Pacitle admitted that the Soviet military frigates ar;e about twice as big as their Soviet counter
presence at Cam Ranh Bay was "modest" (15) and parts. (20) Correspondingly, they pack far more
we have already noted the base's vulnerability even if firepower. "The Soviet Pacific Fleet is bigger than
substantially reinforced. that of the U.S. because its size is inflated by
Superior Forces hundreds of patrol craft, mine�sweepers and old,
Soviet submarines present the most obvious noisy, diesel-electric submarines which are useful only
possible threat to Western SLOC. The Soviet Pacific for local defence." (20)
submarine fleet numbers 134 out of a total sub Submarine Surveillance
marine fleet of about 460 boats, of wbich 371 are Soviet style submarine surveillance emphasises a
currently operational. (16) But it is, in fact, clear that rigid pattern of "vectoring the 'operationaltactical'
the Soviet aggression would be suicidal in the face of submarines toward enemy ships on the open ocean."
superior submarine and ASW forces. One analysis of (21) This acute dependence on land-based Soviet
regional maritime forces gives 108 USSR submarines command, control �nd communications and
against a total of 168 for the U.S. and its allies, intelligence systems (C J) "seems practicable only
including China. (7). Another analysis, using figures if submarines are to be employed relatively close to
bases on somewhat different criteria and mostly home waters". It renders the Soviet submarine war�
extracted from a table by G. Jacobs (17) gives 134 fare capacity very vulnerable to the newly deployed
Russian submarines versus 194 American and other American Tomal1awk cruise missile. (10) This vulner
clearly hostile submarines. Most importantly, as ability is further increased by Soviet reliance on radio
Jacobs indicates, the Soviet Union has far more communications and their likely interception by the
problems in dealing with ASW in the Pacific and U,s. Naval Ocean Surveillance Information System
Indian Oceans than do the Western powers in these which incorporates a network of around 40 to 50
regions. high-frequency direction-finding stations within the
Indeed, the Soviets would be quite unable to Indo-Pacific sub-system, including the N .Z. facility
effectively defend their own open-ocean trade owing at Tangimoana. (22)
to an insuffIcient number of platforms (both surface In its Strategic Basis of Australian Defence Policy
and airborne) as well as a lack of up-to-date ASW assessment, the Australian Government fairly stated
systems. A high percentage of the Soviet Pacific of the Pacific that "the much superior U.S. forces in
Fleet's destroyers and frigates are only equipped with the region could be expected promptly to neutralise
the older generation of ASW sensors. (17) Again, Soviet forces." (23) Nevertheless, the U.S. buildup
about half the Russian "major surface combatants are continues. [n particular, modernisation of the already
gun frigates of the Riga. Petya and Grisha classes dominant U.S. A.S.W. systems is proceeding apace.
which have limited sea-keeping capabilities' , restrict The latest addition· and a highly signifIcant one
ing Russian open ocean ASW deployment. (7) is what is known as LAMPS III or Light Air-borne
As well as the U.S. fleet, the Soviets would also Multipurpose System for which the SH-60 Seahawk
need to deal with allied enemy surface forces. Includ helicopter is the new seagoing platform (24� LAMPS
ing China and Japan, these countries are Canada III represents a huge advance in co-ordinates sensing
Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, France, an d processing ASW combat systems. More frigates,
Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. Their forces destroyers, cruisers and amphibious ships are being
have a combined total of over 90 active destroyers equipped to take LAMPS III helicopters. "The
and 70 frigates in the Pacific/Indian Ocean region. LAMPS III ship will be able to effectively search for
(18) submarines over 30,000 square miles of ocean. One
In a comparison of the U.S. and Russian Pacific Oliver Hazard Perry (FFG-7) class frigate will be able
Fleets, the N.Z. External Intelligence Bureau crudely to exert an influence over as much ocean as 20 or
presented last year as its main ilnding the conclusion more predecessors." (24) The nrst operational
that, allowing for some exceptions, "the numerical deployment of tltis system occurred when the guided
balance of forces in various other categories has been missjle frigate, USS Cromrnelin, came to the West
turning aginst U.S. forces." (19) Not only does this Pacif1c in February 1985. (25)
judgement ignore the maritime forces allied to the A new Surveillance Towed Array Sensor System
Americans, whether formally or de facto, but it (SURTASS) is also being deployed. Together with
ignores the Bureau's own categOrisation of the figures existing systems like the extensive U .S, Sonar
used in its analytical breakdown of the Soviet Pacific Surveillance System (SOSUS), the new innovations
Fleet. For instance, of the 90 major U.S.S.R. surface will enable America to move closer to a first strike
ships listed by the Bureau, 61 per cent are frigates, goal in the Pacific with the theoretical possibility of
the smallest type, compared with only 43 percent of eliminating the Soviet submarine fleet. (26) (22)
o �OQ
(
The U .S. Pacific Command has a new aggressive
posture, its "Full Forward Pressure Maritime 140
Strategy", which directly threatens the Soviet SSBN's '�W�f. . .•• ,
sheltering in the Seas of Japan and Okhotsk. (1) (3) Magadan \\ '{
U.S. Navy Secretary, John Lehman, has stated that KAMCHA TKAT)
SOVIET UNION
U.S. attack submarines would go after Soviet SSBN's
Hin the first five minutes of the war". The strategy Sea of od'�\tSk \ -�et<O .VIOVSk
)J , :
would be supported by all the rest of tbe U.S. Anti
submarine Warfare systems. Recent press reports have .;A TARTAA smAIT
'.
..i:
highlighted this strategy. (28) Thus the Soviets are
) Yt
"0
now even finding their SSBN sanctuaries under \ I �5AKHAL'N ,
\
r' Komsomolsk ,-:, --- \
! '
-\ (!
- X
threat; SSBN survivability is essential for the Soviets "
.,
�O' _ \.� \-.- ---' ." _ <i"
i! 0 The Soviet Pacific Flaet·.
' ."
__ \
f.::J
)1 i
�
SOYA SrRAIT
KorsakovJi
�fJO'''['U' al1�clo;s
\
�
iT"
"'��,
_ SV"rdlov
tJl1 "I'
range of V.S. measures to locate these boats. Leading /rJ'J_= • 9'0 \ ...... Kr>v,'.l"n
\ 'J" Novohtovsk P."y" '1""11
.-L
peace researcher, Robert Aldridge, considers that the HOKKAIDO \ ...s-sU(",'"""e
�H�cks
U.S. already has virtually a first strike ASW 7�/ Vladivostok
capability. (29) r,.r'� -
"
---
The V.S. is upgrading its naval forces for nuclear .. / N �..-\ OREA
PACIFiC OCEAN
war - "nuclear survivable" C31, radiation/electro Sea of Japan
magnetic pulse toughened ships, and even a
Tomahawk cruise missile reserve for a so-called World H )NSHU -tl Tokyo
War IV. (3) (30).
S. KOREA "
�
;.:'
os"..'?-
The Soviets may be treating the Pacific as "an area ,
for a holding campaign" if war broke out, while
directing their primary effort in Europe. (18) The �S'JS"\�;��
Soviet Navy would be a formidable defensive force (12) Klare, M,T, "Beyond the Vietnam Syndrome:
U.S. Interventionism in the 1980s", LP.S.,
along its Pacific coastal region. (1) U.S. Naval
Wa:;hington D.e. 1981.
dominance in the rest of the Pacific in both conven
(13) Jane's Defence Weekly, July 2t, 19M, p.b6.
tional and nuclear terms is well documented. Thus
the real threat to peace in the Pacific is not Soviet (14) 'The Press',October 22,1984.
Naval expansion but the U.S. policy of overt provoca (15) Pacific Defense Reporter October 1984, p.39.
tion on the high seas that just might result in a (16) The Christian Science Monitor, June 22-28,
conventional confrontation going rapidly nuclear. 1985. APDF,FaIl 1985.
(17) For the original table see Jacobs, G. "Russia's
Pacific ASW Problems", in PDR, May 1984.
REFERENCES & NOTES
(I) "The Soviet Navy �- Still Second Best", The (i 8) Figures based on 'Jane's Fighting Ships: 1985-
Defence Monitor, vol XIV, No. 7, Centre For 1986'.
Defence Infonnation, Washington e.D. 1985. (19) Dis::lfmament and Arms Control: Report of
(Catalogue item No 7--33, New ZeaJand The SeJect Committee on Foreign Affairs and
Nuckar Free Zone Committee, P 0 Box 18-541 Defence 1985, p.SS,
Chrislchurch).
(20) WinsJey, P. "The Soviet Pacific Fleet", Peace
(2) World ARmaments and Disarmaments, Stock and Justice Forum,Wellington Labour Regional
holm International peace Research Institute Council, P 0 Box 2851, Wellington. Exce!lent
Yearbook,1984. p. 92. paper!
(3) Arklfl. W & Fieldhouse, R. "The Pacific". ch.7 (21) Vego, Dr M. "Submarine Surveillance Soviet
in 'Nude<lf Battlefields: Global Links in the Style", J.D,W., July 28, 1984, pp 117-12 l .
Arms Race', Ballinger Pub. Coo, Institute For
(22) See Peace Researcher, No. 6,191:14.
Policy Studies, Washington D.C., 1985.
(23) 'The National Times', March 30-April 5,1984.
(4) "US-Soviet Military Facts", T.D.M., vol XHI,
No. 6, 1984 (!'JZNFZC No 6-16).
(NZNFZC, No. 4-15).
(5) Garrity, Dr PJ "Soviet Policy in the Far East",
Asia-P<lcific Defence Foru, Summer 1983. (24) ASia-Pacific Defense Forum, SummeI 1984.
(6) Alves, Dr D. '·The Submarine's Role in Soviet (25) Pacific Defense Reporter, December 1985/
Pllcific Strategy", Pacific Defence Reporter, January 1986, p. 28).
September J 984. (26) Cole, M. "Pacific First Strike", Chain Reaction,
(7) Dibb, P. "The Soviet Union as a Pacific Military No. 29, Spring 1982.
Power", P.D.R., November 1984. (27) In 1982 the Centre for Defence Information
(8) Bidwell, S.ed. "World War 3",Rev. Ed., pojnted out that the Soviets had 100 sub
Hamlyn Paperbacks, 1980,p. 153. marines less than they had had 10 years earlier.
T.D.M. vol XI, No. 6,1982.
(9) in recent years press reports have regularly
described the new dangerous policies and (28) For example, 'The Star', January 9, 1986,
exercises. (29) Aldridge, R.C. "Background Paper on Soviet
(10) Quoted in MacLell<ln, N. "Pacific Cruise", Submarine Vulnerability",December 30, 1984,
Peace Studies, No. 4, July 1984. (NZNFZC. No. 7·31).
(11) 'The Press' July 16, 1983. (30) Asia-Pacific Defense Forum, fall, 1985.
10
REVELATIONS ON US/NZ ANTI-SUBMARINE
WARFARE AGREEMENTS
'PEACE RESEARCHER' has obtained new
information relating to the provisions of two import * Canada is also party to these Agreements, Canada
ant US/NZ agreements on combined Anti-Submarine struck up a secret 1967 pact with the United
Warfare (ASW) operations. These agreements are States allowing under certain conditions storage of
Radford-Collins and ANZUS MARSAR and are US ASW nuclear weapons on Canadian soil.
regarded by the New Zealand Government as *
New Zealand's area of maritime responsibility as
extremely sensitive arrange- defined by these Agreements measures 7 million
ments. The Ministry of Defence has on past occasions square miles, covering the area precisely displayed
called on Section 6A & B of the Official Information on the map below.
Act in refusing to release details of the Agreements.
Descriptions of the general significance of both
Agreements are provided in 'THE LIST' in lhis issue '",,,",
of 'PEACE RESEARCHER'. �--"r ."' "",,,.
IlI leI V )l' W III Nuvcwt...cr, the St.....:rct .. ry huw 10 fight jj naval war occur, "
But, he adds, "Escalatlun wltly as a
'
.
uf the Navy, JotUl .. . Lchmull Jr , said The UfflClUjs s aI d the artn:lc by Ad�
rmfa! Walkms dHj nul slgn.. 1 a Ilew resu lt of aetwll!> at sea s�ms improb
il was "nul Ilccc!>!>unly" UlIIlt.'O S tal e:,
!>Iralegy 10 utlack SOVlt:t :.tliJ.\cgll' sutJ... :,(/,utegy but wa!> the must exvl u':H "r able giv en the $uvlelli1nd oneIllation."
NEW RESOURCES
* 'NAVAL POWER IN THE PACIFIC, AMERICA'S
SEARCH FOR ALLIES', Dr Geoffrey Till, Armed
Forces Journal, An Assessment of the naval role of
allies in the Pacific (China & Japan), 5 pages.
* Articles on secret US-UK arrangements giving
priority to American military requirements in war
time, including requisitioning of land around
military bases, civil airports, transport resources and
impressed civilian labour to be made available to US
forces.
'Secret Laws for Wartime Britain', and 'If War
Came Close We Would Have New Masters', Duncan
Campbell and Patrick Forbes in the New Statesman,
September 1985, both 3 pages.
* 'New Zealand's Dilemma'" Thomas-Durell Young
in US Naval Proceedings, August 1985. Contains
further in sights into New Zealand's ASW activities
and responsibilities in the Pacific and how this has
directed Government policy including training and
equipment of our Armed Forces. 6 pages.
* 'Briefing Papers' provided to the New Zealand
Sele ct Committee on Disarmament and Arms Control
(c. 1982), 17 pages.
* 'Communicating with Submarines" Jane's Defence
Weekly, an article on the importance of Extremely
Low Frequency (ELF) communications ' 'particularly
useful . . . throughout the spectrum of limited nuclear
operations and in a nuclear or non-nuclear war at
sea' '. 5 pages.
The above resources are available by writing to
'Peace Researcher', p.a. Box 19683, Christ church.
Charges: 10c per page plus postage.
'PEACE RESEARCHER'
Research Journal of END, P 0 Box 1 9683,
CHA ISTCHURCH