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T.R.V.ANANDHARAJAN1G.ABHISHEK HARIHARAN2,K.K.VIGNAJETH3,R.JIJENDIRAN4KUSHMITA5

1,2,3,4,

1

Assistant professor,2,3,4,5Graduate student

1

2

{ trvanandharajan abhishekhariharan1995 3vignajeth 4jijendiranravichandran 5kushmithavijay}

@gmail.com

Abstract - Weather forecasting is rather a

statistical measure than a binary decision. We

intend to develop an intelligent weather

predicting module since this has become a

necessary tool. This tool considers measures

such as maximum temperature, minimum

temperature and rainfall for a sampled period

of days and are analyzed. An intelligent

prediction based on the available data is

accomplished

using

machine

learning

techniques. The analysis and prediction is based

on linear regression which predicts the next

days weather with good accuracy. An accuracy

of more than 90% is obtained, based on the

dataset. Recent studies have reflected that

machine learning techniques achieved better

performance

than

traditional

statistical

methods. Machine learning, a branch of

artificial intelligence has been proved to be a

robust method in predicting and analyzing a

given data set. The module plays a vital role in

agricultural, industrial and logistical fields

where the weather forecast is an important

criterion.

of a common man to research scientists. This

explains why forecasting cannot be predicted with

simpler means. In the present times there are high

definition satellite images to accurately predict the

forecast of the upcoming days, but the process is

neither simple nor economical. Here this module

helps us to predict the weather using the past data

and analyze it with a good rate of accuracy and

proves to be a simple one .The module involves the

use of concepts related to artificial intelligence and

machine learning tools. Among the various tools,

we have chosen linear regression technique. One

thing which is to be done mandatorily by the user is

to update the previous days weather paramaters or

else the module fails to apply linear regression to

predict, as every tool dealing with machine learning

involves the constant renewal of past data.

II. RELATED WORKS

The authors in [1] dealt with the

prediction of atmospheric temperature using

Support vector machine. This helped to understand

about defects of SVM. The prediction interval

using hydrological data which helped us to know

about the uncertainty was discussed in (2). The

authors in [4], predicted the amount of solar energy

generated using weather forecast provided an

example of how to use the forecast in daily life.

Prediction of the maximum temperature using

support vector machine helped us in the prediction

temperature process was discussed in (3). In [5],

the authors gave an intuition of different kernels

used in support vector machine. Forecasting using

artificial neural network provided on the use of

forecasting using ANN (7).

learning. Artificial intelligence. Linear regression.

I. INTRODUCTION

Weather prediction, in general, is a complex

process and challenging task. It requires various

parameters to forecast the weather. Monitoring and

intuition of how to process our work further.

agriculture,

travel,

pollution

dispersal,

communication,

disaster

management,

etc.

Henceforth the forecasting of weather plays a vital

2375-5822/16 $31.00 2016 IEEE

DOI 10.1109/CINE.2016.26

106

an

III. FUNCTIONS

the probability of the forecasted day, (i.e.) whether

it was a rainy or sunny or cloudy day.

A. HYPOTHESIS:

D MULTICLASS CLASSIFICATION:

problem, the output is predicted according to the

given inputs. We are aware of how the output

arrives for the particular input. In hypothesis

function, the aim is to predict a hypothesis which is

as close as to the output.. To be simply told the cost

function renders hypothesis which has the least

distance or measure to the output.

classified output values are more than two cases,

i.e. more than the usual 0s and 1s. In this case we

need to predict one of the three classes, sunny or

rainy or cloudy. Hence we go for multi class

classification which uses a the algorithm of logistic

regression, except the fact that it can handle more

than 2 classes.

(1)

input (in matrix) and theta () is the parameter

corresponding to X. Theta are set of values which

makes the mean square error minimum.

IV.FLOWCHART

Weather Data

B COST FUNCTION:

is a mathematical

Cost function ()

function which makes the above hypothesis to be

closer to the output. So this function minimises the

mean square error. The cost function is explained

as given in equation 2.

() =

((

) )^2

Labelling data to

different climate

---(2)

Cost function

function, m is the number of training examples and

y is the output. The cost function should denote the

minimum distance between the hypothesis curve

and the output curve.

Gradient descent

Hypothesis

C GRADIENT DESCENT:

Gradient descent is a differential equation

which minimises the theta( ) value in order to

minimise the cost function after repeated iterations.

In matlab the following function represented by

equation (3) is implemented to converge the value

of the cost function . This can be made only by

minimising the theta value in consecutive steps.

Error verification

Training

set

j :=j - J()

Cross validation

set

--- (3)

Here j is the theta value of a particular iteration

value and J() is the cost function

Weather

prediction

D NORMAL EQUATION:

for the hypothesis without any need for Iterations

as done in gradient descent.

107

Test set

V. METHODOLOGY

Weather cannot be predicted with good percentage

of accuracy. It is an art to forecast weather with

very low deviations and making it to fetch good

results. But weather forecasting tends to deviate

more and has moderate accuracy.

in the error verification and detection column.

The plots in figure (Fig 1.3, Fig

1.4, and Fig1.5) show the curves obtained by

plotting max temp (Celsius) Vs number of days,

min temp (Celsius) Vs number of days and rainfall

(in mm) Vs number of days. The curves are

obtained by evaluating the cost function along with

gradient descent. The theta obtained is used for

plotting the curve(hypothesis).. The curved plot is

due to the polynomial function used in plotting the

data.

using the MATLAB tool by implementing

Vectorization concept. Initially a 3 weeks data of

max temperature minimum temperature rainfall

and the corresponding day is put in column of a

matrix and the matrix is represented as X. The type

of the day is represented as 1for sunny, cloudy as

2 and rainy as 3.They are put in a column and the

matrix is represented as Y. Initially the values of

theta are zeros which results in hypothesis (h(x)) as

zero. The hypothesis and Y is used to find the value

of cost function .The obtained(cost function from

equation 2) is sent to gradient descent (equation

3)and the updated theta values are acquired . Again

they are fed into the cost function to get the new

cost function. This process is repeated for several

iterations until the precise value of theta and cost

function is obtained. It has to be the least among all

the iterated values. The obtained theta is plotted

with against the number of days which is the

hypothesis curve. The predicting days maximum

temperature is found by finding the value of y(max

temperature) in the plot by substituting the value of

x(the corresponding day) by extending the

hypothesis curve. Similarly the same procedure is

done for finding minimum temperature and rainfall.

The values of predicted max ,min temperatures and

rainfall are multiplied with theta to get a value

which will be in the range of (1 to 3) as the sunny

day represented by 1 ,cloudy represented by 2 and

rainy as 3.

the major task for predicting the type of the day.

The value of theta found can also be done using

normal equation. In finding the value of theta from

normal equation the X and Y matrices are

implemented in the equation(4).The obtained value

of theta is then multiplied with the predicted value

of the max, min temperature and rainfall to get the

value of the type of day.(Sunny or cloudy or rainy).

108

through gradient descent but the concept of stack is

implemented with each cross validation data loaded

at a time to find cost function values.Note :Here the

value is obtained using the theta from gradient

descent .Where the entire cross validation set data

was used without the concept of stack.

maximum temperature, minimum temperature and

rainfall are shown in Fig.1.6, Fig1.7 and Fig1.8

respectively.

Fig. 1.5 Rainfall vs. days:

The following hypothesis in fig(1.3,1.4,1.5) will be

a curve, which has the least distance

(perpendicular) between itself and the output

points. The gradient descent undergoes numerous

iteration to minimize the value of theta which is

gives the shape of the curve (hypothesis).

A. ERRORS & THEIR DETECTIONS:

The training set error and cross validation

error are calculated in order to understand the

errors present in the prediction. The error normally

be because of overfitting (high variance) or

underfitting (high bias) of curves. A 20% of data is

taken for the cross validation set and another 20%

of data is taken for the test set. Remaining 60% of

data is evaluated for the training set.

the training set data are plotted by having a number

of training examples in the x axis and error in the y

axis. By doing so, we can infer whether the

hypothesis is suffering from high bias or high

variance.. Both are subjected to increase the error

and hence should be compensated. Suppose if the

training set error is high, then the hypothesis is said

to have high bias. If the cross validation set error is

high, then the hypothesis is said to have high

variance.

The values for plotting the curve of error

vs number of training examples for training set is

obtained by having the 60% of training set.Each

training set data is loaded in a stack one at a time

and its cost function is obtained by computing the

theta from the data in stack through gradient

descent. The obtained cost function are the values

plotted in the error curves .After the cost function

value is obtained an another data of training set is

loaded into the stack and the procedure is repeated

for the entire data to obtain the error curves

In the case of cross validation error

the error plot is obtained by costfunction values

where the theta used in cost function is obtained by

109

towards x axis of the plot and should have to

touch the x axis as the number of training examples

increases.The height of the curves edge at the end

from the x axis determines the value of error that

occurs in prediction.but in the plots we can observe

that the curve touches the x axis showing that there

will be no error in the prediction process.

regression with multiple variables we can conclude

that the forecasted weather is going to be a cloudy

day with 89% chance of being a rainy day. Though

the regression module tends to fit the data well and

predicts accurate result a small amount of error is

VII. RESULTS

The prediction for the next days weather

which follows maximum, minimum, rainfall and

the type of the day (whether it is sunny or cloudy or

rainy) is predicted with a good rate of accuracy

using the plots obtained from fig(1.3,1.4,1.5)

through hypothesis by getting the value of yaxis

from the curve by substituting the x axis value

Parameters or

Features:

Max.Temperature

Min Temperature

Rainfall

Type of the day

22nd day

prediction

27.8138

25.42222

6.8656

Rainy day

Theta 4

11.447015

-0.457802

0.176650

0.007970

Theta 2

Theta 3

Theta 4

-0.858447

0.183849

0.086995

34

33.57

1.26%

30

28.95

3.5%

0%

CONCLUSION

The results can also be verified with multi class

classification using logistic regression and with

artificial neural network. But the disadvantage of

using artificial neural network and multi

classification is that, they give us an output of the

day and not the nearest value probability of how

the day is going to be. The support vector machine

can also be used in predicting the data and works

best when there are a large number of features and

classifications present but redundant features must

be avoided .The only effort which is to be taken by

the user is to update the data set in order to show

accurate results. And it works well when the data

set is considerably large enough to provide at least

one-seventh of the data to be forecasted. For

example, if the data set has been taken for 365

days, the forecasted weather will be accurate for

the first 52 days. When there are more features and

more training examples (data set) the forecast

works best. The module helps in monitoring and

variables:

2.00000

Max

temp:

Min

temp:

Rainfall:

22th and 23th days parameters

Theta 1

%

DEVIATION

the normal equations:

Theta 3

PREDICTED

VALUE

forecast using the predicted values of maximum

temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall we

get the following output in the two forms:

For the 22nd day:

Theta 2

ACTUAL

VALUE

module for the parameters of past days and

comparing it with the data present in the dataset

.The error for the 12th day is given as follows in

Tabel.1.2

23rd day

prediction

26.5903

24.6687

8.5715

Rainy day

Theta 1

METRIC

110

, particularly in an efficient manner.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The idea and the implementation of this

paper wouldnt be successful without the help of

our supporting professor Dr.T.R.V.Anandharajan

M.Jeeva bharathi and the preceptor Dr.AndrewNg.

REFRENCES

[1]Y.Radhika.,M.Shashi.:AtmosphericTemperature

Prediction using Support Vector Machines Vol. 1,

No. 1, April 2009

[2] Durga L.,Shrestha.,Dimitri P. Solomatine

.:Machine learning approaches for estimation of

prediction interval for the model output. Neural

Networks 19 (2006) 225235

[3]

Paniagua-Tineoa,S.,Salcedo-Sanz a., C.

Casanova-Mateoc.,E.G. Ortiz-Garcaa.,M.A. Cony

b.,E. Hernndez-Martnc.: Prediction of daily

maximum temperature using a support vector

regression algorithm. Renewable Energy 36 (2011)

3054e3060.

[4] Navin Sharma.,Pranshu Sharma., David Irwin.,

Prashant Shenoy.: Predicting Solar Generation

from

WeatherForecasts

Using

Machine

Learning.(IEEE SmartGridComm)

[5]N.

Cristianini.,

J.

Shawe-Taylor.:An

Introduction to Support Vector Machines and Other

Kernel-based

Learning

Methods.

CambridgeUniversity Press, 2000.

[6] Kabir Rasouli , William W. Hsieh , Alex J.

CannonDaily,: streamflow forecasting by machine

learning methods with weather and climate inputs.

Journal of Hydrology 414415 (2012) 284293

[7] Dr. S. Santhosh Baboo, I.Kadar ShereefAn:

Efficient Weather Forecasting System using

Artificial Neural Network. IJESD Vol. 1, No. 4,

October 2010

111

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