Automotive Panel

Adam Jones:
-Detroit is gonna be a part of AV. Disruption isn't always from the outside?
-Average age is like 30???
Oakridge National Labs?
OPENING QUESTIONS: Autonomous august = lots of announcements with autonomous veh
icles?
ARE AVs OVERHYPED? How real is this?
It's coming, but it's definitely coming. OEMs. We have real vehicles tha
t are testing on campus, in SF, AZ.
It's a part of the hype cycle.
Consumers are ready for the tech.
It's like the internet in 1999.
Fuel Economy: Advanced Business Model and AI in Cars? (last 18 months). What fli
pped?
Problems of urbanization and congestion and social pressure of emission
WITH huge change in tech, computing, and sensor tech.
AV has been tested for last 10 years. It's now leaving R&D. Tech and dem
and is coming.
What is getting a higher priority from the FEDS?
Energy security? Economic Security? Public health security?
Across all of DOT: SAFETY INITIATIVE FIRST. 30K+ deaths. Unlocking econo
mic value from accessibility and environmental.
Will there be an autonomous car act? Is the govts role similar to the developmen
t of other infrastructure--space, railroads, etc.
Too early. we are learning as we go, so the phasing of r&d -> test -> de
ploy
Insurance companies or FEDs will fund the build out of the infrastructur
e. Let's not be over-regulating. Just set guidelines.
What is important for local and municipal govt?
Please don't run over a pedistrian (SAFETY). Tech will outpace liability
and tort system.
Infrastructure will communicate with them too.
100 ppl die / day from traffic fatalities. 1500 incapability is still people:
Are we trading off lots of death vs. lots of disability.
Life maximization algorithm?
We have to have a better framework for handling this. People will certai
nly get hurt and can blame lines of code that caused it.
FROM OEMS:
the combination of private/public partnership and the issue betw
een supplier and OEMs and gray area
previous safety changes were about protecting the people inside,
but now we have to think about protecting the people outside.
WATCH US DRIVE. WE SUCK.
It's a no-brainer. The legal challenges will be wrestled with. "
The only thing faster than machine learning is human unlearning"
New car ads 1) seeing the hot girl stops car 2) iPhone dashboard
...stark-like tech.

AVs should be shared? Will people want to own them? P2P network? Is it a public
utility?
1. Private vs. Ownership
2. No autonomation vs full autonomation.
Public autonomous cars. OR highly customized private ownership.
Any perpsective on V2V infrastructure. Missing pillars?
From an agency perpsective -> gas tax is collected at federal levels and
states need to improve our roads.
There is no weather in Mountain View! Try AV in AA without lane markers
in a blizzard.
WHO IS PAYING FOR THIS? Right now it's no body. EVs are taxed by people.
Milage-based tax fees. Sounds like the people are still paying for it.
Look at trucks. They go from one distribution center to the other.
Roughly 1B cars on Earth. 2-4 parking spots per car. 4B parking slots
In Austin, Texas, 1/3 of revenues come from parking.
From reurbanization, we have to rethink parking. Private/public congesti
on problems.
A lot of destination of Level 4 or Level 5 autonomous vehicles. Couldn't just th
e. Average car price is $35K. Couldn't we get by with just transition cycle?
Blind-spot system; auto-stop; advanced cruise control; traffic jam assis
t.
The jump to autonomous. The trick is WHEN do you let the driver take ove
r? We can't engage the driver with semi-driver.
Make the leap to no steering wheel!
Should we have to make that jump immediately? The current car is much mu
ch safer than older cars.
"human beings are terrible at monitoring things"
Tesla Autopilot -> is it really autopilot? "you aren't allowed to comple
tely disengage from the car". Everyone should be clear on this.
How much energy could we save?
1. 90% or petroleum just about saving congestion. SHARED AUTONOMOUS CONN
ECTED ELECTRIC
2. Double energy consumption from zero occupancy and inefficient driving
and etc.
On energy: inflationary or deflationary?
1. Miles driven increases total. Everything else (connected, shared) is
trying to offset. Franchised people will now be driving.
Electric Vehicles: Does sharing or connected help for EVs?
Our goal is to decouple carbon from VMT. People usually concern about pa
yback period or range anxiety
Shared mobility and connection can supplement AV technology in general.
Right now, AV is power intensive, but soon it could get better with the
power draw.
Who is paying for the electric vehicle charging stations?? Oh yeah there's a ton
of capacity at night!! Easy, it's just the fringe cases (hot summer day in Cali

)
renewables are offset their demand.
Should utilities own the charging station?
Lots of application: we are "professional systems integrating" it's hard to make
a car company that globally generate sales.
disruptors are not generating the return that you want. (UBER and TESLA
and LYFT).
Global talent is shifting: a lot more software, sensor integration. It's more ab
out fast-moving software and talent will save. Data and analytics / what you nee
d is a different kind of science.
68M years. How does auto compete with those who come in at a loss? Google and Ap
ple
900 hours a year.
How much value is there because of driving and ads from cars? Cars are e
xpensive. Money from ads.
ITS REALLY HARD TO MAKE A CAR.
Apple wants to have your car be a mobile transportation system.
INSURANCE INDUSTRY: How will it be impacted now?
It doesn't really work now! Some OEMS said they will absorb the liabilit
y. Who is responsible for the software bug?
The number of accidents from V2B are hockey sticking. We will need legis
lated solution to this! Yes you know how anything is legislated.
In 2050, only around 40% of vehicles will be self-driving.
NHTSA guidance on AV has been pretty good (it's a good read). Global com
bined insurance premium is $500B.
Aren't we helping the consumers too much? We are encouraging drivers to be bad.
Humans are bad. Yup.
All of research: TRUST is Huge. How to build trust? It's mostly marketing. Robot
ic drivers; "demo's; reviews" "there are many ways to prove to the public about
safety"
It's ironic that we trust something so unsafe yet don't trust something
that is more safe. There's an information gap.
It takes 5-7 years to make a car. What will be changing: software will b
e changing. The ability to remotely operate the software will be growing. We are
decoupling hardware from software.
It's just like a computer.
GOOGLE WANTS TO OWN THE OS IN CARS. HOW WILL THE EXPERIENCE change? No blue scre
en of death please. You can't have that in a car. The safety of the entire vehic
le shouldn't be based on Google.
We are currently in the development phase of new use: it's a great thing
to not have to drive.
Lots of opportunity to add new things in the car.
You want screens in the car and change seating configuration. There are
a lot of different things you can change.
INFOTAINMENT will be huge.
GOVERNMENT IS VERY ENTREPRENEURIAL. Primary focus is safety. NHTSA and DOT is sa
fety. Then DOE is thinking about VMT or fuel economy.
Chinese gov't will be very involved in their own transportation and infrastructu
re growth.

What about public transportation and will everyone wanna go backwards? In dense
urban areas, robotic taxis and public transportation. Design will play a role. N
ah the larger market is still going to be private car ownership.
DoE looks more like commoditized pod that drives around 24/7 which chang
es the engineering.
Is transportation going to be a regulated utility? NO personal car ownership wil
l be huge. it will coexist with the public transportation area.
Will we have our own lanes for AV cars and will they have to follow speed limits
? Couple AV with having the certainty of having a parking place. Then you will b
e more okay with having AVs.
-------------------------------------------Automotive:
How can the latecomers catch up to everyone? BYD, Chery, Geely, Mahindra, Tata
1. They have initial benefits of low cost production but still very few resource
s
Define catch up as (1) technological and (2) market share
2. Offshoring has occurred partially due to new market growth coming from outsid
e. It's almost always better to produce cars where they will be sold.
Automotive capabilities: 1. DESIGN and 2. Supply Chain Management
Learning how to make a car is hard: you are doing everything from scratch which
means modeling, testing, and building. You need a lot of coordination with the t
eam!
2. Supply chain management is hard because everything is geographically spread o
ut and JUST IN TIME production means you have to do everything timely.
3. Branding and customer relations management.
Hyundai's case:
1. They were highly protected by the Korean gov't. They helped create technology
partners. Once they could build a car, they leverage scale. They sold below cos
t to build demand AND then they merged Kia with Donga
2. Hyundai got manufacturing expertise by hiring workers from shipbuilding and c
onstruction companies!
3. Then Hyundai partnered with Ford
4. Then Hyundai sent its people everywhere to document and learn as much as they
could
5. Hyundai entered the small car market when oil prices were rising. They JV'd w
ith Mitsubishi in order to learn how to succeed in the US market.
6. Becoming a global partner. They opened and closed many plants before they fin
ally got it right in India, but they did these in smaller markets
A similar thing is happening in China:
1. China is allowing many JVs trade: market access for technology. Once enough p
eople came in, China stopped new ventures and focused on consolidating the marke
t.
2. The marketing and branding is practically non-existant.
India: Tata doesn't have the same benefits from the government even though it op
erates under a larger conglomerate
1. YES Tata did buy JLR but they aren't the most innovative company so they aren
't learning that much. Actually, there is some learning because their plants are
more automated than not. \
2.
The biggest weakness is that TATA and China don't have global footprints.

It is unlikely electric cars will be more than 10% of the cars.

http://site.ebrary.com.libproxy.bus.umich.edu/lib/umich/reader.action?ppg=74&doc
ID=10856556&tm=1479536629625
Toyota fully believes in hybrid. Electric won't take off for a while.