University of the Philippines Diliman

College Of Engineering
Department of Geodetic Engineering

GE 190: Seminar in Geodetic and Geospatial Engineering and Geoinformatics

Final Thesis Proposal

Search for Potential Evacuation Sites in Metro Manila in

Preparation for The Big One using GIS

Researchers:
Canonizado, Phillip Andrew P.
Carmen, John Louie B.

Adviser:
Engr. Edgardo Macatulad

Submitted to:
Dr. Ariel C. Blanco

Statement of the Problem

Knowing that a massive earthquake is bound to hit Metro Manila, strategic location of
evacuation sites all over the metro is a vital part in damage mitigation. Metro Manila
Development Authority has provided a list of possible evacuation sites based on quadrants but
these locations may seem to be difficult to access for some due to their distances. Additional
sites are needed to accommodate those who access the evacuation sites mentioned by the
MMDA.

Significance of the study

The West Valley Fault has an approximate cycle of 400 years and with its last major
earthquake in the year 1658, it is expected to cause a massive earthquake called as the Big
One in the near future. Considering that the West Valley Fault line passes through the Metro
Manila, many lives will be put in danger if this Big One occurs. This study aims to provide
assistance in the damage mitigation by locating suitable evacuation areas.

Review of Related Literature

In a study conducted by the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, Japan
International Cooperation Agency and Department of Science and technology, they looked at 18
different earthquake scenarios. They selected three detailed damage analysis, a 7.2 magnitude
from the West Valley Fault, an offshore 7.9 magnitude earthquake from the Manila trench and a
6.5 magnitude earthquake along Manila bay. Among the three, the 7.2 magnitude earthquake
from the west valley fault is considered to be the worst case scenario and is dubbed as the Big
One. They estimated about 34,000 will die if this happens and this estimate does not even
include the disasters that could follow.
To avoid this high number of casualty, evacuation sites must be selected. MMDA
proposed some but these sites cant accommodate all due to their distances. Additional sites
must be selected and there are several factors to consider in making a site suitability map.
Factors to be considered in this study are Liquefaction, Tsunami-susceptibility, Landslidesusceptibility, Site accessibility and Seismic capacity of buildings.
Soil liquefaction is a phenomenon wherein the soil loses its strength due to suddenly
induced ground movement, causing it to behave like a liquid. It usually occurs in saturated
cohesionless soils in which water fills the spaces between grains. Ground movement
(Earthquake) increases water pressure inside which tend grains to lose contact. Regions or
areas that are more vulnerable to this event are the ones located near or along large streams
or rivers, lakes and bay because theyre most likely to have the greatest soil moisture content.
Also, sandy areas pose higher risk of liquefaction than clayey region because of its finer grains

Simplified procedure proposed by Youd and Perkins in a liquefaction-susceptibility

assessment study in Mumbai, India. There are many test that had been done to obtain
important data. Extensive borehole tests for groundwater depth, standard penetration test,
specific gravity, dry density, and wet density were done in different parts of the city. Standard
penetration test (SPT) is a type of dynamic penetration test to provide information about the
geotechnical properties of soil. It used to provide indication of the relative density of soil type
present in the area. The standard penetration test values, diameter of grain size finer than 50%
and weight and content of soil were used to evaluate the moisture content of the soil. They also
designed an earthquake model to simulate the possible magnitude ground movement. They use
GIS software GRAM++ to evaluate the liquefaction-susceptibility of soil in Mumbai City into
three categories, critically liquefiable, moderately liquefiable, and non liquefiable.
Probabilistic approach is also a possible way to determine the liquefaction potential of
the area. It differs from deterministic approach where several factors like soil type, moisture
content, etc. are combined considering every possible cases which may happen to determine
liquefaction potential. In probabilistic approach, it incorporates different uncertainties that may
contribute to the occurrence of the event. The accuracy of this type of analysis greatly depends
on the reliability of the assumed models. Another approach is by Threshold shear strain
concept. There is a set limit value that will trigger the liquefaction if it is reached. If the peak
shear strain is not reached, it will not result into a earthquake-induced liquefaction.
Commonly occurring after an earthquake, tsunamis pose a significant threat to those
who are nearby shores. Tsunami is a japanese word meaning harbor wave and is used to
describe large waves generated by sudden movement of the sea floor which causes vertical
displacement of water. Tsunamis are series of waves which heights vary from less than 30cm to
more than 30m. These waves travel faster when they are in deeper waters and gradually slows
down when approaching the coast which causes the waves to stack up in height and have
shorter intervals between them. This phenomenon is called Shoaling Effect. Unlike wind
generated waves that have period (time between two successive waves) of between five to
twenty seconds, tsunamis can have a period of ten minutes to two hours. Metro Manila, having
West Philippine sea at its left and Laguna de bay at its right, has a high risk of experiencing
tsunami and seiche (tsunami-like wave in enclosed water bodies) if the West Valley Fault
generates a massive earthquake. Warnings are given to the coastal areas when an earthquake
occurs but mere warnings are not enough to avoid damages. Preparations must be made if this
catastrophe may happen. The Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, which happened last
2011, proved that fast evacuation is the most effective measure to reduce casualties. It
destroyed most of Japans tsunami countermeasures but approximately 90% of the estimated
population at risk survived thanks to the rapid evacuation to higher grounds. Department of
Science and Technology (DOST) made a tsunami vulnerability map last 2007. This map does
not include Metro Manila in the vulnerable areas but this map is made almost 10 years ago and
it does not consider the west valley fault as a source. A way of making this vulnerability map is a
GIS-based multi-criteria analysis using multiple geospatial variables of topographic elevation,
slope, topographic relation to tsunami direction, coastal proximity and coastal shape.

Landslide is the movement of rocks or debris down a slope. It can be slow or rapid
depending on the situation and triggering factor. Type of landslides that are rapid is called fall.
Fall happens when the rate of movement of falling object or debris is rapid. Another type is the
topple, topple happens when the arrangement of rocks are not stable. This type of landslide is
also rapid. Types of landslide which are characteristically slow are slides and creeps.
Landslides happen almost every day it's just that only the major landslide events are
documented. Factors that trigger landslides are natural events like rain and earthquake, and
anthropological activities.
There are areas which are more vulnerable from landslides. Coastal cliffs are very
vulnerable to landslide because of the undercutting of its base due to the wave movements.
Areas without enough vegetation are also at risk of having a landslide because there is no one
to support the soil from eroding. Steepy area are also at risk of having a possible landslide
because of the gravity that pull the sediments down.
There are methods to evaluate the susceptibility of the site from landslides. It can be
heuristic approach, statistical approach, or deterministic approach. There are also factors to
consider in making a landslide-susceptibility map. The landslide types which are discussed
earlier, failure mechanisms, age of the soil and the activity in the area, the lithology of the area,
soil structures and soil types, and the triggering factors like earthquake, rainfall, and human
activities.
There are many methods that can be use to determine the susceptibility of the area from
landslides. It can be inventory-based approach, deterministic approach, probabilistic approach,
data-driven approach, or knowledge-driven approach. Under inventory based method,
magnitude frequency and activity mapping are used. It just use landslide historical data on the
area and make an analysis on the susceptibility of the area. Another approach is the
probabilistic method, it uses parameter uncertainty and temporal prediction to analyze the
susceptibility of the area. Under data-driven approach are bivariate statistics and multivariate
statistics. In bivariate statistics, the area of affected by landslides together with different factors
like terrain and soil types are being analyzed. Weights are also introduced in this method. And
they overlay all these factors to get the landslide susceptibility map. In multivariate method,
different regression analysis are introduced like multiple and logistic regression to arrived at the
desired results.environmental parameters like slope, geology and drainage system are
calculated together with the landslide occurrence in the area. After that, weights are applied
based on expert's field of knowledge to get the desired and reliable results.
Landslide susceptibility can also be analyzed using physically based modelling.
Essential data types are soil data (it includes hydrological and geotechnical properties), Digital
elevation models (DEM)( it includes slope angle and drainage system), and groundwater
measurements. It uses either deterministic models or probabilistic models. Other models are
static and dynamic models. Static models only tell where and it is independent from time while

the dynamic models simulate changes through time. It tells when and where landslides might
happen.
There are many ways to perform susceptibility assessment and it just proved that
susceptibility research is much more effective in a model driven approach. The availability of
data greatly helps in determining the susceptibility of area from this event.
During calamities like an earthquake, time is of an essence. The travel time of evacuees
to evacuation sites matter. Evacuation sites must be accessible to the evacuees either by
walking or by driving. In assessing the accessibility of sites several factors must be considered.
The sites must be near from the areas where its intended evacuees are. The route to the
evacuation sites must be of little-to-no obstruction to allow the panicking crowd to access it with
ease. Some of the evacuees could be injured in the process of evacuation or during the
earthquake thus, proximity to different facilities like hospitals must also be considered to allow
faster medical attention. Earthquake could strike at any moment. It could happen during rush
hours. Metro Manila is known to have heavy traffic during rush hours. Taking this into account,
the volume of traffic is also a factor in assessing the accessibility of sites. Several mobile
applications offer traffic monitoring at real time. These can be used to determine which roads
have heavy traffic.
Seismic capacity of building is the limit of buildings to withstand the damages caused by
an earthquake. This is important in the damage assessment if the Big One happens. Buildings
that are susceptible to being completely damaged must be avoided by the evacuees. A study
conducted by Midorikawa, Fujimoto, Yamanaka, Miura, Pacheco and Bautista about the
earthquake damage assessment of buildings in Metro Manila revealed that low-rise buildings
might suffer complete damage at low land areas while high-rise buildings might suffer slight to
moderate at most sites.

Methodology
The proponents decided to use Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in this study.
First step is acquisition of relevant data from concerned government and non-government
agencies will be done. These data include tsunami-susceptibility map, liquefaction-susceptibility
map, road networks, slope map, structural (building) data, population density data, and if
possible traffic density. Since tsunami, liquefaction, and landslide susceptibility map are already
available at PHIVOLCS-DOST, the accessibility to the possible evacuation site and the seismic
capacity of buildings will be assessed.
Different factors will be considered in assessing the road networks and traffic density at
a given time when the quake possibly happens. There are available data which show what are
the typical traffic conditions at the given time. These will be incorporated in the analysis of the
road networks. In determination of optimum path between building blocks and potential
evacuation areas, and also from health facilities, the shortest path between them in road

network will be considered. Highly-populated building blocks should get faster to the potential
evacuation site to minimize the risk for the survivors. The determination of optimum path will be
done using network analyst and shortest path which are an available tool in GIS softwares. The
capacity of potential evacuation areas will also be assessed to make the evacuation phase
more efficient.Another factor to be consider is the seismic capacity of buildings around the
potential evacuation site. These buildings might collapse and pose additional threat to the
survivors. Factors to be consider are the age and the materials used in constructing the
building. There is an available study about the seismic capacity of buildings here in Manila,
Philippines but the study is relatively old dated 2004.
Respective weights will be applied in each criteria. These criteria will be overlaid and will
be evaluated using fuzzy logic method. It will be categorized into three groups: very suitable,
moderately suitable, and not suitable. These results will be put into map for visualization.

Expected Output
The expected output for this study are maps showing suitable evacuation areas in each
city/municipality. Individual maps will be made for each city/municipality in Metro Manila to allow
greater details in routes and hazards that could block the way of the evacuees.

Sources:
Jain et al., (2005). An introduction to tsunami in the Indian context. The Indian Concrete Journal
Program, T. (n.d.). National Weather Service- Tsunami Hazards. Retreaved December 16,
2016, from http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/?page=tsunami_science
Brearley, M. N., (2006). The behaviour of tsunamis
Kristine Angeli Sabillo, Asia News Network | July 30, 2015. (n.d.). The Big One Could Kill 34,000
in the Philippines. Retrieved December 17, 2016, from
http://www.emergencymgmt.com/disaster/The-Big-One-Could-Kill-34000-in-the-Philippines.html
U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers - National Oceanic and ... (n.d.). Retrieved December 17, 2016,
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Liquefaction Potential of Cohesionless Soils

STATE OF NEW YORK, DEPARTMENT
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