Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
February24,2016
ImpactsofWaterDevelopmentonGreatSaltLakeandtheWasatchFront
WayneWurtsbaugh1,CraigMiller2,SarahNull1,PeterWilcock1,MauraHahnenberger3,FrankHowe1,4
UtahStateUniversity1;2UtahDivisionofWaterResources;3SaltLakeCommunityCollege;4UtahDivisionof
WildlifeResources
Summary
Although droughts and floods produce shortterm
fluctuationsintheelevationofGreatSaltLake,water
diversions since the arrival of 19th Century pioneers
representapersistentreductioninwatersupplytothe
lake,decreasingitselevationby11feetandexposing
muchofthelakebed.AsUtahmovesforward,weneed
tobeawareoftheimpactsofloweredlakelevelsand
makedecisionsthatservetheinterestsofallUtahns.In
particular, proposals to further develop the water
supplyoftheGreatSaltLakeshouldcarefullyconsider
potentialimpactstothehealthofthelakeandexamine
the tradeoffs. There are no water rights to protect
Great Salt Lake, so water development currently
focusessolelyonwhetherthereiswaterupstreamto
divert. If future water projects reduce the supply of
water to the lake, its level will continue to drop.1
Although water conservation has reduced urban per
capitauseby18percent,overallmunicipalwateruse
has increased by 5 percent because of our growing
population.2 To significantly reduce water use, a
balancedconservationethicneedstoconsideralluses,
including agriculture, which consumes 63 percent of
thewaterintheGreatSaltLakeBasin.
Figure1.GreatSaltLakeshowingitsmajorbaysand
therelativecontribution(%)ofeachofthemajorriver
inflows.Thewhitelineshowsthelakemarginatits
averagenaturalelevationof4,207feetandtheJuly
2015NASAphotographshowsthelakeatnearrecord
lowlevels,exposinghalfofthelakebed.
Introduction
UtahsGreatSaltLakeisimmenselyvaluableasanenvironmental,cultural,andeconomicresource.A2012
analysis by Bioeconomics3 estimated the economic value of the lake at $1.32 billion per year for mineral
extraction,brineshrimpcystproduction,andrecreation.Theabundantfoodandwetlandsofthelakeattract3
millionshorebirds,asmanyas1.7millionearedgrebes,andhundredsofthousandsofwaterfowlduringspring
andfallmigrations.Becauseofthis,ithasbeendesignatedasaWesternHemisphereShorebirdReserveNetwork
Site.Notably,thelakeisthenamesakeofUtahscapitalcity,whichunderscoresitsculturalsignificance.
GreatSaltLakeliesinaterminalbasin(Figure1).Thismeanswaterflowingintoitonlyleavesbyevaporation.
Freshwaterlakeshaveriveroutflows,butnotGreatSaltLake.Itstributariesbringtraceamountsofsalt,which
isleftbehindwhenwaterevaporates.Theconcentratedsalts,includingsodium,chloride,potassium,sulfate,
magnesiumandothers,provideavaluableresourceformineralextractioncompanies.Becausemostofthelake
istoosaltyforfishtosurvive,millionsofmigratorybirdsarethedominantpredatorsoftheabundantbrine
shrimpandbrinefliesthatcantoleratethesaltywatersinthemainlake.BearRiverBayandFarmingtonBay,
whichreceivefreshwaterinflowsandarelesssalty,harboranevengreaterdiversityofinsects,crustaceansand
fishwhicharealsoimportantpreyforthebirdcommunity.
Sincethelakeisinaclosedbasin,itnaturallyriseswithgreaterwatersupplyduringwetperiodsandfallsduring
droughts.Ontopofthisnaturalpattern,watersupplytothelakehasdecreasedovertimeasmoreandmoreof
itisconsumedforagricultural,industrialandurbanuses.Aswatersupplydecreases,thelakelevelfalls.There
are compensating factors that can slow shrinkage of the lake when water supply is reduced. First, as the
elevationdeclines,thesizeofthelakedecreases,andthus,thereislessevaporativesurfacearea.Second,asthe
lakeshrinks,saltsbecomemoreconcentrated,whichfurtherreducesevaporation.4Theseprocessesslow,but
do not stop, the decrease in lake elevation when water supply decreases. The lakes elevation and salinity
equilibratetotheamountofwaterflowingintoitfromrivers,rainwaterandgroundwater.Forexample,ifthere
was a 25 percent decrease in streamow to the lake, its elevation would slowly drop and, after 15 years,
equilibrateatanelevationabout2.2feetlower.4
EffectsofwaterwithdrawalsonGreatSaltLakelevels
Althoughfluctuationsinrainfallandriverflowcausethelakeleveltoriseandfall,therehasbeennosignificant
longtermchangeinprecipitation5andwatersupply6frommountaintributariessincethepioneersarrivedin
1847(Figure2A).Incontrast,waterdevelopmentandriverdiversionsovermorethanacenturyandahalfhave
producedapersistentreductioninwatersupplytothelake(Figure2B).Someofthedivertedwaterislostvia
evaporationfromagriculturalfields,urbanlandscaping,andindustrialactivity,includinglossesfromsaltponds.
ThesereducedstreamflowshavebeenoffsetbyeightpercentwithimportedwaterfromtheColoradoRiver
Basin through the Central Utah Project, as well as return flows from upstream diversions. Overall, however,
consumptive water use has reduced net river inflow to the lake by 39 percent over the past 150 years.7 This
consumptivewaterusecausestheGreatSaltLaketoshrink(Figure2C,redline).Althoughwetperiodslikethose
inthemid1980sandthecurrentdroughtcausewatersupplyandlakelevelstofluctuate,thelakelevelhas
persistentlydeclinedsincethepioneersarrived.8Thiscontrastsstrikinglywiththeconstantlongtermaverage
ofprecipitationandriverflowintheupperwatershedsnotedaboveandinFigure2A.
Figure2.A.Waterflowinheadwaterstreams(BlacksmithRivergage
data; Bear River flow based on treering reconstructions6).
B. Estimated consumptive use of water for agriculture, salt ponds,
wetlandsandcities.C.ObservedlevelofGreatSaltLake(dashedred
line). The solid blue line shows a model of lake elevation in the
absenceofconsumptivewateruses.Averagedoverthelast10years,
waterusehasloweredthelake11feetanddecreaseditsvolumeby
48 percent.
Impactsofloweredlakelevels
Dust&healthWaterdiversionsanddroughthavereducedlakeareafromaround1,600squaremileswhenthe
pioneersarrivedto1,050squaremilesin2015.Theexposed550squaremilesoflakebedincreasesthepotential
forlocallysevereduststorms.Figure1showslakeareaatanelevationof4,207feet,the18472015average
estimatedlakeleveliftherehadbeennodiversions(Figure2C),andthelevelinJuly2015asthelakeapproached
itslowestrecordedlevel.Atthecurrentlakeelevation,48%ofthelakebedisexposedcomparedtowhenthe
lakeisat4,207feet.
Decreasedlakeelevation,however,affects
variousbaysofthelakedifferently.Shallow
Bear River and Farmington Bays are
particularly impacted, and at the current
lakelevel,morethanthreequartersoftheir
lake beds are exposed, making them
potential sources of dust that influence
WasatchFrontcommunities.
Table1.Typesofhumanwaterconsumption(depletions)and
theirinfluenceondecreasingtheleveloftheGreatSaltLake
(Source,UtahDivisionofWaterResources,2016).
Sourceandpercentofwateruse
Medianestimateddecrease
inlakelevel(Total=11.1ft)
Agricultural(63%)
7.0feet
Mineralextractionsaltponds(13%)
1.4feet
concentratingminerals,whichfacilitatestheirextraction.However,aslakeleveldrops,itbecomesincreasingly
difficultandexpensivetodeliverbrinefromthelaketothesaltpondsandprocessingplants.Forexample,in
2014MortonSaltwasrequiredtodigafivemilelongcanaltoaccessthelakeswater,andsomecompaniesin
GunnisonBayfindthatitisnowcostprohibitivetopumpbrinetotheirdistantfacilities.
RecreationSimilarproblemsareexperiencedbytheGreatSaltLakeboatingcommunity.Atthecurrentlow
lakelevel,themarinaonAntelopeIslandisnotfunctionalformostboats,andthelargerGreatSaltLakeMarina
iscurrentlybeingdredgedatacostofmorethan$1.5milliontoallowaccesstothelake.Additionalwaterlosses
wouldcauseevenmoresevereproblems.RecreationaluseforhuntinginBearRiverandFarmingtonBaysisalso
limitedbyashrinkingandsaltierwaterbody.Altogether,recreationinandaroundGreatSaltLakecontributes
about$135milliontoUtahseconomy.3
Environmental health and the brine
shrimp industryReducing freshwater
inflows to Great Salt Lake increases its
salinity, which has important con
sequences for brine shrimp and other
invertebrates (Figure 4). Brine shrimp
rely on intermediate salinities to grow
and reproduce. If salinity levels are too
low, as they were in the mid1980s,
predatory insects can proliferate and
obliterate
the
brine
shrimp.22
Figure4.ChangesinsalinityofGreatSaltLakessouthernarmand
Conversely,whensalinitiesaretoohigh,
therangeofsalinitiesforgrowthandsurvivalofbrineshrimp.After
the shrimp become stressed and
therailroadcausewaywasconstructedsaltsconcentratedinthe
eventually, reproduction fails.23 The
northarm,withlowersalinitiesinthesouth.Darkblueindicates
salinitylevelinGilbertBayiscurrently16 optimalsalinities(812%)forbrineshrimp. Forreference,seawater
percent, considerably above the salinityis3.5%.
optimumforbrineshrimp.Nevertheless,
thecommercialharvestofbrineshrimpcystsisstillprofitable.However,ifdiversionsanddroughtcontinueand
salinitiesriseabove20percent,brineshrimpproductionisestimatedtobereducedtolessthan10percentof
optimal.23Thiswillseverelyreducethe$57millioncommercialbrineshrimpharvestandprovidelessforagefor
birds.
Avian usageReduced lake levels influence the enormous bird populations that rely on Great Salt Lake for
migration and reproduction; species as diverse as American avocets, mallards, swans, and pelicans are all
negativelyimpactedbylowlakelevels.24Mostimportant,criticalnestingsitesintheshallowareasofFarmington
and Bear River Bays nearly disappear at low lake levels (Figure 1). These bays are essentially freshwater
estuariesthatproduceabundantfoodresources,andsupportahighdensityanddiversityofbirds.25Whenthese
estuaries shrink, this premier waterfowl production area and its associated $70 million waterfowl hunting
industry is threatened.26 Secondly, increases in salinity in Gilbert Bay, the largest portion of the lake, will
decreasefoodavailableforthosebirds,suchasgrebes,shorebirds,andgullsthatfeedonbrineshrimpandbrine
flies(Figure4).Additionally,furtherwaterdiversionscouldresultinmorefrequentwatershortagesforthevital
freshwaterbirdsanctuariessuchastheBearRiverMigratoryBirdRefugethatlinemuchoftheeasternshoreof
thelake.27TheproblemofdecreasinghabitatforbirdsatGreatSaltLakeisexacerbatedbecausemanyother
westernsalinelakesthathostbirdsaresimilarlyaffectedbywaterdiversionsanddrought:CaliforniasSalton
Sea28,MonoLake29,andOwensLake30,aswellasOregonsAbertLake31arestarkexamplesofenvironmental
harmtosalinelakeswhenwaterisdepletedbyconsumptiveuses.
Conclusion
Figure5summarizeshowwateruseandclimaticfluctuationsinfluenceGreatSaltLake.Climatefluctuations,
suchasthefloodinginthemid1980sandthecurrentdrought,causefloodinganddryingcycleswith530year
intervals6.Consumptivewateruses,however,produceapersistentdecreaseinwatersupplytothelakeand
thus,lakelevels(Figure2).Sincethepioneersarrivedin1847,therehasbeennosignificantlongtermtrendin
precipitationorstreamflowoutofthemountains(Figure2A).Consumptiveuses,however,havereducedthe
lakelevelby11feet,decreaseditsvolumeby48%,increasedlakesalinity,andexposedapproximately50%of
thelakebed. Thishasincreasedwindblowndust,impairedthe useof marinas,and caused costlylogistical
constraints for the mineral extraction industry. Shallow Bear River Bay and Farmington Bay have been
particularlyimpactedbydesiccation,thusreducingwetlandhabitatandtheirusebywaterfowlandshorebirds.
Additionalwaterdevelopmentinthebasin,exacerbatedbylongtermclimatevariability,mayfurtherreduce
thelakeslevelunlessconservationeffortsareincreasedforurban,industrial,andespeciallyagriculturaluses.
Utahneedstobeawareofhowwaterdevelopmentsinthepast,andthoseproposedforthefuture,affectthe
lakeandtheimportantresourcesitprovides,aswellashumanhealthandtheeconomicstability.
Figure5.Summaryofexternalforcesinfluencinglakeareaandvolume,andtheeffectsofthese
changesonGreatSaltLakesnaturalresources.
Acknowledgements.
JustinDeRosefromtheU.S.ForestServiceprovidedimportanttreeringreconstructionsofprecipitationand
riverdischargeandcontributedtootheraspectsofthepaper.DavidTarbotonofUtahStateUniversity
contributedsubstantiallytosomeoftheconceptspresentedhere.MaryAnnMuffolettofromUtahState
Universityeditedthepaper.ToddAdams,EricKlotz,MarisaEgbert,DavidColeandJoshPalmeroftheUtah
DivisionofWaterResources,andMikeCollins,BryanDixonandLynndeFreitasprovidedcommentsonearlier
draftsofthepaper.Thefinaldocumentdoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheirviewsortheviewsoftheir
organizations.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Footnotes
1
Fornataro,E.A.2008.ThelastuntappedriverinUtah:AnargumentagainstthedevelopmentoftheBearRiver.J.Land,
ResourcesandEnvironmentalLaw28:141162.http://epubs.utah.edu/index.php/jlrel/article/viewFile/103/93.
2
Although per-capita urban water use has decreased 18% in the watershed, overall urban use has increased from 131,400
acre-feet in the 1989-2000 period, to 138,800 acre-feet in the 2010-2014 period, a 5.6% increment (Utah Division of Water
Resources data).
3
Bioeconomics.2012.EconomicsignificanceoftheGreatSaltLaketotheStateofUtah.PreparedfortheStateofUtah
GreatSaltLakeAdvisoryCouncil,SaltLakeCity,Utah.50p.
http://www.gslcouncil.utah.gov/docs/2012/Jan/GSL_FINAL_REPORT12612.PDF,accessed8February2014.
Mohammed,I.N.,andTarboton,D.G.2012.AnexaminationofthesensitivityoftheGreatSaltLaketochangesininputs.
WaterResourcesResearch48.117,DOI10.1029/2012wr011908.
5
RainfallfortheWasatchFrontwasderivedfromacompositeraingageavailablefromtheNationalOceanographicand
AtmosphericAdministration,http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=slc.Despitedroughtsandwetcycles,
therehasbeennosignificant(p=0.52)longtermchangefrom18752015.Regression;inches=24.670.00465*year;p
=0.52,notsignificant.
Riverflowintheuppertributarieswasbasedonthe100yearcontinuousrecordfromtheBlacksmithFork(USGSgage#
10113500),atributarytotheLoganRiver,andontreeringestimatesofprecipitation.Inhighprecipitationyears,trees
formthickergrowthrings,suchthatthewidthsoftheseringscanbecorrelatedwithmeasuredflowsinriversforthe
yearswhenflowdataareavailable.Thetreeringwidthsinyearspriortodocumentedriverflowscanthenbeusedto
estimateflowsinthoseyears.Here,wevepresentedflowestimatesfortheBearRiveratasitehighinthewatershedand
aboveanywaterdiversionstructures(USGSgage#10011500;DeRose,R.J.etal.2015,Amillenniumlength
reconstructionofBearRiverstreamflow,Utah.J.ofHydrology,doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.014).Similar
reconstructionsfortheWeberRiverandLoganRiversalsodemonstratethattherehasbeennolongtermdecreasein
riverflowinupperbasins(Bekker,M.F.etal.2014.A576YearWeberRiverstreamflowreconstructionfromtreeringsfor
waterresourceriskassessmentintheWasatchFront,Utah.JAWRAJ.oftheAm.Wat.ResourcesAssoc.50,13381348.
doi:10.1111/jawr.12191,Allen,E.B.etal.2013.AtreeringbasedreconstructionofLoganRiverstreamflow,northern
Utah.WaterResourcesRes.49,85798588.doi:10.1002/2013WR014273).AlsoseeDeRose,R.J.,etal.2014.Treering
reconstructionofthelevelofGreatSaltLake,USA.TheHolocene24,805813.doi:10.1177/0959683614530441.These
reconstructionsdocumentlongtermdroughtsandwetcyclesmoreseverethanhavebeendocumentedsince1847.
Duringthesecyclesthelakedriedsignificantlymorethanourcurrentsituationandatothertimesexpandedbeyondeven
thefloodingseeninthemid1980s.
TheregressionlineinFigure2AisacompositeoftheBlacksmithRiverflowandthetreeringestimatedflowfortheBear
River,andshowsnosignificanttrend(n=267,p=0.085).Similarly,therewerenosignificanttrendswhentheBlacksmith
River(n=98,p=0.349)andtheBearRivertreeringdata(n=165,p=0.078)wereanalyzedseparately.
7
Estimatesofagriculturalandreservoirconsumptiveuse(calleddepletionsbyhydrologists)forthelast30yearswere
computedfromnetcropevapotranspirationlesswintercarryoversoilmoisturestorageonaperacrebasis.Reservoir
depletionswerecalculatedasnetaverageannualevaporationtimes80%ofmaximumsurfacearea(Hill,R.W.1994.
ConsumptiveuseofirrigatedcropsinUtah,UtahAgr.Exp.Station.Res.Report#145;WaterRightswebsite,
http://www.waterrights.utah.gov/cgibin/damview.exe).BearLakeandUtahLakewerenotincludedinthiscalculation,
meaningthattheactualevapotranspirationdepletionsmaybesomewhatlargerthanshown.
Toobtainweatherinputsforthesecalculations,30year(19712000)averageweatherdatawereextractedfromPRISM
(http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/).Municipaldepletionswerecalculatedbysubtractingestimatedimpervioussurface
runofffrommunicipalcalculatedconsumptiveuse.Evapotranspirationfromimpoundedopenwaterwetlandswas
estimatedusinganareaof56,000acres(Emerson,R.andT.Hooker.2011.Utahwetlandfunctionalclassificationand
LandscapeprofilegenerationwithinBearRiverBay,GreatSaltLake,Utah.USGS,https://www.mendeley.com/profiles/
richardemerson1/)multipliedbythenetaverageannualevaporation(GridETprogram;authorClayLewis,2015,
https://github.com/claytonscottlewis/GridETURL).Mineralextractiondepletionwascalculatedas75%oflake
withdrawals(CompassMinerals,personalcommunication).Depletionsduetoevaporativelossesinthebasinwerethen
loweredbytheamountofwaterimportedfromtheColoradoRiverBasin.
The39%decreaseinriverinflowtothelakeisbasedona10yearaverage(20032012).Thiscalculationaccountsforthe
importationofColoradoRiverwaterintothebasin.The39%decreaseduetodepletionsiscalculatedbasedontotal
depletions(correctedforColoradoR.imports)of1,451,000acrefeet(UtahDWR)andcurrentriverinflowtothelakeof
2,303,000acrefeet(Mohammed,I.N.andD.G.Tarboton,2012).
ThedatauseforthedepletionestimatesareacompositeofearlydataanalysesintheUtahDivisionofWaterResources,
andmoredetaileddataafter1989.Depletionspriorto1970weretakenfromestimatesofR.PalmerandG.L.Whittaker
(Unpublisheddata,UtahDivisionofWaterResources).Thepost1989datashowsshorttermresponsestodroughtsand
wetcycles,andisthusirregular.Consequently,thedatainFigure2Bweresmoothedwitha5pointrunningaverage.
Estimatesofwaterdepletionsareimprecise.Consequently,additionalanalysesoftheeffectsofdepletionsonthelakes
levelarewarrantedandmaychangetheresultssomewhat.Nevertheless,theabsenceofalongtermtrendinrainfall5
andmountainrunoffoverthepast170years(Fig.2A),whencomparedtothepersistentdecreaseinlakelevel(Fig.2C),
indicatesthatwateruseandconsumptionishavingamajorimpactonthelake.Additionalanalysesofwateruseonthe
lakeareongoingaspartoftheGreatSaltLakeIntegratedWaterResourceModelbeingdevelopedbytheDivisionof
Forestry,FireandStateLands.
8
LinearregressionforredlineinFig.2C,LakeElevation(feet)=4291.30.0469*year;p<0.0001.Highlysignificant
decline.
9
Toestimatewhattheelevationofthelakewouldbeifwaterwasnotusedforconsumptionweaddedthedifference
betweenpastandcurrentdepletionsasanannualinputtotheGreatSaltLake.Theinfluenceoflakeareaandsalt
concentrationontheevaporationratefromthelakesurfacewereincludedinthemodel.
10
BearRiverDevelopmentProject.UtahDivisionofNaturalResources.http://www.gslcouncil.utah.gov/docs/2014/
10Oct/BearRiverPipelineProject.pdf.
11
TheUtahDivisionofWaterResourcesestimatesthattheproposeddiversionof220,000acrefeetofBearWaterwill
resultinadepletionof85,670acrefeetofwaterdeliverytoGreatSaltLake.Theyestimatethatthiswillcausethelaketo
decreaseameanof8.5inchesandamaximumof14inchesinelevation(C.Miller,personalcommunication).Assuminga
meandecreaseof8.5inchesfromthecurrentlakelevel(4193.1feet),anadditional30squaremilesoflakebedwouldbe
exposed.Ifthedecreasewas14inches,45squaremileswouldbeexposed.Theareasofexposurewerecalculatedfrom
thebathymetricdataprovidedbyDavidTarboton(UtahStateUniv.)anddoesnotincludetheareasinsaltponds.
12
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http://www.gbuapcd.org/owenslake.htm.
18
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19
PhillipKiddoo,personalcommunication,GreatBasinUnifiedAirPollutionControlDistrict,AirPollutionControlOfficer.
January28,2016.
20
UtahDivisionofForestry,Fire&StateLandsgrant.http://www.ffsl.utah.gov/index.php/grantprograms/statelands
researchgrants?showall=&start=1.
21
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24
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31
TheOregonian.Oregonsonlysaltwaterlakeisdisappearing,andscientistsdon'tknowwhy.
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THEAUTHORSARENATIONALANDINTERNATIONALEXPERTSINSALINELAKELIMNOLOGYANDECOLOGYANDINMODELINGOFLAKEANDWATER
RESOURCESYSTEMS.THEAUTHORSHAVEPUBLISHEDWIDELYONTHEGREATSALTLAKEINMANYRESPECTEDSCIENTIFICJOURNAL.
Documentisavailableat:https://qcnr.usu.edu/
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