1

Yousef Khan
Jake Gunther
Karen R. Moreno
Pre-Calculus
Mr.Knuuttila
11/17/16

Chicago Temperature From 1947, 1970, and 2000

1 Chicago Weather Center: Skilling's Forecast and Chicago Severe Weather Alerts. "Chicago Winter Weather | Chicago Weather
Center: Skilling's Forecast and Chicago Severe Weather Alerts." Chicago Weather Center: Skilling's Forecast and Chicago
Severe Weather Alerts. N.p., 20 May 2014. Web. 19 Nov. 2016.

Chicago Temperature of 2000:

2000 Actual Data Features: Max: 73 Min:16 Range: 57
Calculator Equation: y =27.22sin(.47x-1.24)+44.88
Personal Equation: y = 28.5sin(/6x-1.22)+44.5
Chicag
o 2000

TI Predicted
2000 () ()

Personal
Predicted ()

2000-TI
predictions

2000-Personal

Jan

25

21

17

Feb

28

27.89

25.5

0.11

2.5

March

45

38.79

38.7

6.21

6.3

Apr

48

51

53.5

5.5

May

63

63.07

65.8

0.07

2.8

June

69

71.29

72.4

2.29

3.4

July

71

74.25

71.5

3.25

0.5

Aug

73

71.31

63.4

1.69

9.6

Sep

65

63.13

50.2

1.87

14.8

Oct

56

51.41

35.5

4.59

20.5

Nov

37

38.77

23.2

1.77

13.8

Dec

16

27.92

16.8

11.92

0.8

Average
Difference:3.4

Average Difference 7.3

Calculator Equation: y =27.22sin(.47x-1.24)+44.88

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Features Calculator Equation: y =27.22sin(.47x-1.24)+44.88:

2 Purple Dots-Actual Temperature in 2000 and Red Line- Calculator Generated Equation

Vertical Shift (K): The average of the maximum and minimum point:
44.5.

( 16 + 73 )
2

Amplitude (A): The maximum displacement from the midline (44.5.-16)= 28.5.
Horizontal Shift (H): The distance the graph displaces on the x-axis from the origin: (1.24/.47)= 2.6
The Number of Periods in 2 cycle(B): (2/Period)= .47
Period: A complete cycle from any point of a sine function ( 2/.47)=13.3

Personal Equation Graph: y = 28.5sin(/6x-1.22)+44.5

Personal Equation: y = 28.5sin(/6x-1.22)+44.5

Vertical Shift (K): The average of the maximum and minimum point:
44.5.

( 16 + 73 )
2

Amplitude (A): The maximum displacement from the midline (44.5.-16)= 28.5.
Horizontal Shift (H): The distance the graph displaces on the x-axis from the origin: (2.34/(/6))= 2.6
The Frequency in 2 cycle(B): (2/12)= /6
Period: A complete cycle from any point of a sine function ( 2//6)=12

The difference between the actual data in Chicago from 2000 differs by a small margin from the
calculated equation of regression from an average of 3.4 degrees per month (Yousef)

Chicago Temperature 1970

Calculator Equation: y= 30.59 sin(.43(x-3.53))+44.45
Personal Equation: y=29 sin (/6(x-3))+46
Min: 17Max: 75 Range: 58 Amplitude (A): 29 Vertical Shift(K): 46

Table for Actual Data and Predicted Data

Month

1970

Predicted by TI

Difference

Jan

17

17.32

0.32

Feb

27

25.71

1.29

March

35

37.52

2.52

Apr

52

50.61

1.39

May

63

62.56

0.44

June

70

71.21

1.21

July

75

74.96

0.04

Aug

73

73.14

0.14

Sept

65

66.07

1.07

Oct

56

55.04

0.96

Nov

41

42.08

1.08

Dec

31

29.56

1.44

Average Difference for calculator: .96

Personal Equation and Actual Data

Personal Equation: y=29 sin ( 6 (x-3))+46

K (Vertical Shift): Min + Amplitude 17+29= 46
H (Horizontal Shift): 3- April
A (Amplitude): (Min+Max).5= (17+75).5= 46

P: 12 months

B Frequency in 2pi: /6 (12B=2 )

TI Predicted Equation

Calculator Equation: y= 30.59 sin(.43(x-3.53))+44.45

K( vertical shift): 44.45
H(horizontal shift): 3.53
A(Amplitude): 30.59

P: 12 (months)
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The calculated equation of regression differs from the actual data in Chicago from 1970 by an
average of .96 degrees per month (Karen).

B(frequency of wave in 2pi):

Chicago Temperatures 1947

Features of 1947 Chicago Temperature:
Calculator Equation: 27.35 Sin(.56x-2.6) +49.88
Personal Equation: 31.5 Sin(/6(x-5)) +50.5
Range: 63 Min: 19 Max: 82
Months:

1947 Temperatures ()

Predicted by TI

Difference

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January

27

25.37

1.63

February

19

22.53

3.53

March

30

27.87

2.13

April

46

39.78

6.22

May

52

54.67

2.67

June

65

68.13

3.13

July

72

76.08

4.08

August

82

76.16

5.84

September

67

68.34

1.34

October

61

54.96

6.04

November

33

40.04

7.04

December

28

28.04

.04

Average Difference:

3.64

Calculator Equation: 27.35 Sin(.56x-2.6) +49.88

Amplitude (A): 27.35
Vertical Shift (K): Min + Amp= 22.53 + 27.35= 49.88
Horizontal Shift: 2.6 spaces to the right
Period: 12

Calculator Equation: 27.35 Sin(.56x-2.6) +49.88

Personal Equation: 31.5 Sin(/6(x-3)) +50.5

Vertical Shift (K): Min + Amp= 19 + 31.5= 50.5
Amplitude(A):31.4
Horizontal Shift(H): 3

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Frequency in 2(B):/6

Period: 12

The average difference between the calculated regression and the actual data of Chicagos
temperature from 1947 is small as the average difference between the calculated equation and
the data from 1947 is 3.64 degrees per month(Jake).

Actual temperatures During each Time Period

Months
Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov

2000

1970

1947

Fahrenheit

Fahrenheit

Fahrenheit

25
28
45
48
63
69
71
73
65
56
37

17
27
35
52
63
70
75
73
65
56
41

27
19
30
46
52
65
72
82
67
61
33

Dec

16

31

28

Graph of Calculated Regression Equations for Each Period

Comparison of Calculated Regression for all Years in this Study

Analysis of Chicago for 1947

The temperature appears to be predictable because it repeats in a pattern as the year
progresses. Furthermore, the annual temperature appears as a period of a regression wave, which
would also repeat in a similar pattern the subsequent year.
Year

K (calculator)

A (calculator)

K(personal)

A(personal)

1947

49.88

27.35

50.5

31.5

1970

44.45

30.59

46

29

2000

47.03

27.22

44.5

28.5

The temperature data from the following years: 1947, 1970, 2000, give us relatively similar
results for the vertical shift value and the amplitude value, as shown in the table above. The
vertical shift, which is the average temperature of a year, sharply decreases from 1947 to 1970,
but it steadily increases to 47.03 degrees in 2000. In contrast, the amplitude is the highest in
1970, but relatively the same in both 1947 and 2000. Based on the predictions from all three
regression equations, the 2000 equation is the best overall measure because its predictions are
amplitude and vertical shift are close to both the 1947s and 1970s amplitude and vertical shift.
According to the data, the decrease in winter temperature throughout the years proves that
climate change is occurring in Chicago. For example the lowest temperature in Chicago during
2015 was 15 degrees, and the lowest temperature in Chicago during 1947 was 19 degrees. The
largest difference between 1947 and 2000 is the amplitude, which shows that the temperature is
changing. It is not easy to predict the temperature because the temperature is always changing

each year due to climate change. Besides predicting the weather, economist use trigonometric
functions to model the economy, and computer graphic designers use trigonometry to create
certain shapes and angles.

Analysis of Chicago in 2000:

The temperature of Chicago looks to be periodic because the temperatures throughout the year
repeats. The earth revolves around the sun in an elliptical shape, and so the temperatures repeat
as the earth repeats its cycle around the sun. Therefore, during the winter, the position of Chicago
on Earth is farthest from the Sun, the temperature is low, and the temperature increases as
Chicagos position is closer to the sun. The temperature during these certain months remain in
the close range, as evident through the relatively close range of the average temperature per years
in this study, because Chicagos position on Earth does not change. However, the differences
between the data and regression models are due to various forces like pollution.
The Year:

1947

Personal vertical shift (K)

50.5

46

44.5

31.5

29

28.5

Calculator Vertical Shift 49.88

(K)

44.45

47.03

27.35

30.59

27.22

Personal Amplitude (A)

Calculator Amplitude
(A)

1970

2000

The calculated Amplitude and the Vertical shift between the three years (1947, 1970, 2000) are
relatively close. The range from the average annual temperature from 1947 to 2000 has changed
the most. The personal equations depict the amplitude across the three years to decrease as the
years progresses. However, the calculator equations do not demonstrate any consistent changes
between amplitudes and vertical shift. In the real world, the vertical shift represents the average
temperature throughout the year, and the amplitude provides a range for the years temperature.
The amplitude of the calculated regression from all years in this study show that the highest
temperature throughout the years are decreasing by a rate of 1.99 degrees per year. Out of all of
the equations, the 2000 calculated regression equation is the best model for calculating current
temperature due to its accuracy in closely predicting the actual temperature in the year 2015. In
addition, the 2000 calculated regression equation best models all years in this study because it is
relatively accurate at corresponding to the actual temperature of different years than either the
1947 or 1970 equations. For example, the 2000 regression equation shares the same maximum
temperature prediction with the year 1947, and it is between the minimum predicted temperature
of 1970 and 1947. Therefore, the 2000 year is the best overall regression equation to model the
overall years because it remains in the temperature boundaries of all years, unlike the other two

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regression equation. The 2.85 degree decrease in temperature from 1947 to 2000 demonstrates
that climate change affects Chicago, but global warming does not necessarily increases
Chicagos annual temperature. Instead, global warming affects the increasing harsh winters in
Chicago. As the Earth becomes warmer due to the excessive release of Carbon Dioxide, the
warm air surrounding Antarctica pushes the northern jet stream South3. Since the jet stream is
increasingly getting closer to Chicago, the temperature during the winter gets colder. As a result,
the decrease in average annual temperature in Chicago supports the existence of global warming
in Chicago. Despite the accurate temperature predictions from the calculated regression
equations, the equations do not predict the precise temperature in the future because they fail to
incorporate variables, like carbon dioxide emission rates, which heavily affect the annual
temperatures. Thus, weather prediction is not easily predicted. Aerospace engineers use
trigonometric equations in their field so that they can make models that can help them predict
and model planetary movement. In addition, Chemist use trigonometry to help model chemical
phenomas4.

Analysis for 1970:

The plotted temperature looks to be a predictable wave because it is periodic since the same
cycle happens every year. When the year increases, the temperature should also increase.
Year

K (calculator)

A (calculator)

K(personal)

A(personal)

1947

49.88

27.35

50.5

31.5

1970

44.45

30.59

46

29

2000

47.03

27.22

44.5

28.5

In the table above are the listed K(vertical shift) and A(amplitude) values both from the
calculator and our personal equations. The bigger the amplitude, the higher the maximum
average temperature is. In this case, 1970 has the highest average temperature, while 1947 and
2000 have similar but smaller amplitudes. The K value should represent the average temperature
of the year, and based from the calculator and personal equation, the temperature decreases
throughout the three years, but not consistently . Based off of the average difference of our
calculator equations, 1970 has the smallest average difference. This means that 1970 has the best
3 News, By Katherine Bagley InsideClimate, By Marianne Lavelle, By John H. Cushman Jr., By Phil McKenna, By Katherine Bagley, By Lisa
Song, By Georgina Gustin, By Leslie Kaufman, and By Bob Berwyn. "Yes, a Warmer Arctic Means Cold Winters Elsewhere. Here's How."
InsideClimate News. N.p., n.d. Web. 20 Nov. 2016.

4 Martin, Victoria. "How Is Trigonometry Used in Chemistry?" EHow. Demand Media, n.d. Web. 20 Nov. 2016.

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overall measure out of all years. Some people might argue that global warming only refers to the
warming of the planet, but in reality it can also mean that the temperatures are getting lower.
Because Chicago is located near large bodies of water, it means that the average temperature will
continue to drop. All in all, the data could potentially provide evidence for the existence of global
warming. Chicagos summer time temperatures have not been as affected by climate change, but
the winter time temperatures are the ones that have decreased, and therefore, changed the most.
Through this project, I was able to see that weather cannot be easily determined. There are a lot
of variables that could change the weather. These variables include, season, location, amount of
wind, population size, and so many more. Another occupation that requires the knowledge of
trigonometric waves are multiple types of engineers.
Reflection for 2000:
The hardest part of the project was interpreting the data and applying its features to the real
world. My struggle with this aspect and my method of solving it involve all STAR quality. I was
self-aware of my pre-calculus knowledge and my background knowledge about global warming.
Despite my responsibilities, I was tenacious and persisted through this project by working at
night time during my weekend. In addition, my positive attitude allowed me to continue with my
work and not allow my challenges to deter my effort. Lastly, I used my relationship to
communicate with Mr.Knuuttila about aspects of the project that I did not understand. In the
beginning of this project, I regret not making a plan with my group because it created confusion
when we had to combine our data and conclusions. I could have strengthen my relationship with
my group by working with them in the beginning. The part of the project I enjoyed the most was
creating the equations that matched my data points because it reflects on my self-awareness in
class, and it shows how math is applicable to life. As I mentioned before, I struggled with my
relationship STAR quality in the beginning, but my groupmates and I realized that working as a
team was necessary for our success, and we began to communicate and work together.
Reflection for 1947:
Throughout this project I felt most challenged by my ability to analyze the data and relate it to
what is going on in our world. It is not often that we complete a project in the math classroom so
throughout this project it was critical that I used my second STAR quality: Tenacity. I struggled
with something new, something that I had never really experienced in my math learning, so even
though it was a challenge, I knew that it was very important to work tenaciously. This included
putting in more work than I was used to on a math assignment. From the start of the project it
would be key that myself and group members were always on the same page. Although we
worked well together and ran into little issues, it would have been better if we had planned out
things more and were clear to each other about what we needed to complete and how we were
going to do that. A part of this project that I enjoyed a lot was its step outside of the math world
into the real world (despite its difficulty). I thought this was interesting because it allowed me to
think about sinusoidal waves among other things differently. The STAR quality that I made sure
to apply to this was my self-awareness. It was of importance for me to be self aware of what
these graphs really mean and how they model the weather strikingly well. The growth that this

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project most sparked was my relationships. In a situation like this I knew that I would be having
a lot of questions. I had to maintain a strong relationship with my group members so they could
give me strong answers. I also made sure that my relationship with Mr. Knuuttila was kept
positively because in the case I didnt receive the help needed from my group members, he was
the next option.
Reflection for 1970:
The part of the project that I felt challenged me the most was the analysing the data, and figuring
out what this meant for us as a planet. The STAR quality which I can most relate to through my
struggle, would be my self-awareness of my time and knowledge that I was able to use to make
the picture of climate change clearer. Not only was I aware of my own time and work, but also of
my teammates. During the time that the analysis was due, I had many other projects in other
classes, so time was very important to me. For a scenario where I have projects in every class, I
should probably ask for extensions in other projects so I can have more time to focus on one
thing. I believe that my partners and I were a little stressed due to the many deadlines that we had
to meet, but I dont think that it got in the way of how we cooperated and interacted. I genuinely
liked using desmos. At first it was sort of a struggle, but once I got the hang of it, it was a very
useful tool. A STAR quality that I can link this to would be tenacity because through hard work I
was able to solve my struggle.