3/18/2016

WhoWillWriteTurkey'sNewConstitution?TheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicy

Copyright2016TheWashingtonInstituteprintedwithpermission
Articles&OpEds

WhoWillWriteTurkey'sNewConstitution?
SonerCagaptayandHaleArifagaoglu
HurriyetDailyNews
May17,2011
InanticipationofitsvictoryintheJune12generalparliamentaryelections,theAKPhaspromisedto
draftanewconstitutionforthecountry.
OnJune12,Turkeyfacesgeneralparliamentaryelections.OpinionpollsshowthattherulingJustice
andDevelopmentParty,orAKP,willwinthepollsforthethirdconsecutivetimesince2002.In
anticipationofitsvictory,theAKPhaspromisedtodraftanewconstitutionforthecountry.The
governingpartyneedstoreceive367seatsinthe550memberTurkishparliament,i.e.2/3
supermajority,tosinglehandedlywriteanewconstitutionwithoutfirstseekingconsensus.
Turkeyisindeedinneedofanewconstitutiontoreplaceitsoutdatedandilliberal1982textthejury
isoutonwhethertheAKP,acoalitionofIslamistsandconservatives,willadoptaliberalconstitution.
First,however,thefollowingquestionmustbeanswered:canthegoverningpartyobtainthe
supermajorityrequiredtoallowittounilaterallywriteTurkey'snewMagnaCarta?
TheanswerlargelydependsonTurkey'suniquelyhigh10percentelectoralthreshold.Parties
receivinglessthan10percentofthevotearebarredfromachievingrepresentationinthelegislature,
insteadallocatingmostoftheirseatstothewinningparty.Realistically,fourpartiesarecurrently
vyingforthelegislature:theAKP,themainoppositionsocialdemocratRepublicanPeople'sParty,or
CHP,therightistNationalistMovementParty,orMHP,andtheKurdishnationalistPeaceand
DemocracyParty,orBDP.
PollsshowthattheAKPandCHPwillhavenoproblemsurpassingthethreshold.TheBDP,whichis
runningindependentcandidatestoavoidthethresholdasindependentsdonothavetoqualifythe
nationalthresholdbutmustsimplygainenoughsupportintheirrespectiveprovincestoenterthe
parliament,willenterthelegislature.TheprospectsfortheMHPtosurpassthethreshold,however,
aremuchmoredubious.
WhethertheAKPgetsthelegislativesupermajoritydependsasmuchonhowmanypartiesjointhe
parliamentastheperformanceoftheAKPitself.SinceafewearlypollsshowedtheMHPfailingthe
10percentthreshold,thecrucialquestion,notjustforMHP,butfortheprospectofanAKP
supermajority,iswhethertheMHPwillachieverepresentationintheparliament,orcedeits
representationtoAKP.
Varying,andoftenpoliticized,pollsshowtheAKPvotehoveringarounda4355percentrangeofthe
popularvote.TheCHPhasabout2332percentsupport,andMHPhasaround915percent.BDP
seemstobeonpacetoreceive58percent.
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policyanalysis/view/whowillwriteturkeysnewconstitution

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3/18/2016

WhoWillWriteTurkey'sNewConstitution?TheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicy

Ourresearch,basedonpollfiguresandelectionscenariosthatweranonbilinclioy.comrunbythe
ARIFoundation,aTurkishnongovernmentalorganization,showsthattheAKPhasachanceof
winning2/3(367seat)legislativesupermajoritywithlessthanhalfofthepopularvotedependingon
howtheMHPandtheCHPperform.Afewpossiblescenariosarelistedbelow:
AKPover52percent,CHPunder23percent,MHPunder12percentAKPsupermajorityguaranteed
eveninafourpartylegislature:Ifthegoverningpartygetsanoverwhelming5355percentofpopular
support,withtheoppositionperformingatthelowerendofexpectations(CHPgetting2123percent,
andMHPobtaining1012percent),thentheAKPwouldreceive362to377legislativeseats.The
CHPwouldobtain109115representatives,withtheMHPgetting3843seats.BDPsupportranging
from58percentwouldgivethatparty2630members.TheAKPwouldthenhavethesupermajority
toadoptaconstitutionofitsliking,withouttheneedtobuildconsensus.Itshouldbenoted,however,
thatinthisscenario,ifCHPvotesweretosurpass22percent,anAKPsupermajoritywouldbe
unlikelyevenifthegoverningpartyreceived55percentofthevote.
AKPunder47percentinafourpartyparliament,yieldingnoAKPsupermajority:assumingafour
partyparliamentwithCHP,MHPandBDPgetting2327percent,1015percentand68percentof
thevoterespectively,andwiththeAKPperformingatthelowerendofexpectations(getting4347
percent),thiswouldgivethegoverningparty314335seatsinthelegislature.TheCHPwouldget
142140representatives,andtheMHP4563members,with3031seatsgoingtotheBDP.This
scenariowouldproducenoAKPsupermajority,yieldinganewconstitutionbasedonconsensus.
MHPfailsthethresholdandAKPcrosses48percent,AKPsupermajorityguaranteed:Thiswould
yieldathreepartyparliament,withMHPfailingthethreshold.Inthiscase,theAKPwouldwinthe
supermajoritywith48percentofthevoteseveniftheCHPweretoget2528percentandBDPwere
togarner68percent,securing151152seatsand2730seats,respectively.
MHPfailsthethreshold,butCHPcrosses27percent,requiringAKPtoreach52percentormoreto
secureasupermajority:TheonlywaytheAKPwillnotwinasupermajorityinathreeparty
parliamentisifsupportfortheCHPweretosurpass27percentandifAKPvotesarebelow52
percent,withtheBDPgetting68percent.ThisscenariowouldgiveAKP366359,CHP162164
BDP2930seats,respectively.
TheAKPhasofficiallyembracedTurkey'sWesternvocationanddemocracy,yetinpractice,theAKP
haspromoteditsvisionofanewTurkey,onethatisnotinstinctivelyWestern,andhasalso
implementedamajoritarianandilliberaltakeondemocracy.
IftheAKPweretowinthesupermajorityonJune12,itwouldlikelywriteaconstitutionwithout
seekingconsensuswiththerestofthesociety,makingitsvisionforTurkeyakeypartofthecountry's
constitution,theAKPleadershiphasalreadysuggestedtheyareplanningtocreateapresidential
systemthatwouldconsolidateallpowersinoneoffice.
WhicheverscenarioiscarriedoutwillultimatelydecidewhowritesTurkey'snewconstitution.Will
theMHPentertheparliament?Ifitdoesnot,willsupportfortheCHPfallunder27percent?Andif
theMHPentersthelegislature,willtheCHPreceivemorethan22percent,preventinganAKP
supermajority?TheanswerstothesethreequestionswilldeterminewhowillwriteTurkey'snext
constitution,andwithit,Turkey'sfuture.
SonerCagaptayisdirectoroftheTurkishResearchProgramatTheWashingtonInstitute,whereHale
Arifagaogluservesasaresearchassistant.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policyanalysis/view/whowillwriteturkeysnewconstitution

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