Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
28 OCT 2016
Maruti Suzuki
BUY
INDUSTRY
AUTOS
Rs 5,860
Target Price
Rs 6,606
Nifty
8,615
Sensex
27,916
MSIL IN
302
1,770 / 26,473
3,464
Rs 5,950 / 3,193
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
28.6
51.8
30.3
Relative (%)
29.0
44.7
27.9
56.21
13.58
FIIs
23.59
Abhishek Jain
abhishekkumar.jain@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7320
Sneha Prashant
sneha.prashant@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7336
6.62
2QFY17
1,78,428
30,374
23,980
79.4
2QFY16
1,39,029
22,455
14,970
49.6
YoY (%)
28.3
35.3
60.2
60.2
1QFY17
1,49,273
22,157
14,862
49.2
FY16
5,77,462
90,571
46,499
153.9
38.1
19.5
18.0
FY17E
6,63,669
99,882
62,052
205.4
28.6
17.3
20.8
FY18E
7,82,595
1,22,665
81,242
268.9
21.8
13.7
23.4
FY19E
9,02,866
1,53,188
1,00,168
331.6
17.7
10.6
24.2
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
2QFY17
4,15,796
4,26,758
1,78,428
1,20,741
5,191
22,122
30,374
6,300
24,074
8,126
197
32,003
8,023
23,980
79.4
2QFY16
3,53,335
3,84,191
1,39,029
93,124
4,111
19,339
22,455
6,694
15,760
4,735
178
20,318
5,348
14,970
49.6
YoY (%)
17.7
11.1
28.3
29.7
26.3
14.4
35.3
(5.9)
52.8
71.6
10.8
57.5
50.0
60.2
60.2
1QFY17
3,46,375
4,23,082
1,49,273
1,01,254
5,790
20,072
22,157
6,389
15,768
4,833
181
20,420
5,558
14,862
49.2
QoQ (%)
20.0
0.9
19.5
19.2
(10.3)
10.2
37.1
(1.4)
52.7
68.1
8.8
56.7
44.4
61.4
61.4
2QFY17
67.7
2.9
12.4
17.0
25.1
13.4
2QFY16
67.0
3.0
13.9
16.2
26.3
10.8
YoY (bps)
69
(5)
(151)
87
(125)
267
1QFY17
67.8
3.9
13.4
14.8
27.2
10.0
QoQ (bps)
(16)
(97)
(105)
218
(215)
348
Page | 2
Volume Assumptions
We estimate volume growth
at ~12% CAGR for FY16-19E
vs 6% CAGR for FY12-16 on
the back of demand recovery
driven by normal monsoon,
7th Pay Commission
payouts, lower interest rates
and GST
(in units)
Domestic Petrol
% YoY
Domestic Diesel
% YoY
Domestic LCV
% YoY
Domestic sales
% YoY
Export sales
% YoY
Total sales
% YoY
FY14
7,21,925
9.7
3,31,764
-15.6
-
FY15
8,28,187
14.7
3,42,516
3.2
-
FY16
9,02,933
9.0
4,02,418
17.5
-
FY17E
9,96,557
10.4
4,65,479
15.7
10,000
14,72,037
12.8
1,30,092
5.0
16,02,128
12.1
FY18E
11,35,836
14.0
5,25,893
13.0
12,600
26.0
16,74,329
13.7
1,49,606
15.0
18,23,935
13.8
FY19E
12,43,621
9.5
5,62,038
6.9
14,112
12.0
18,19,771
8.7
1,67,558
12.0
19,87,329
9.0
10,53,689
0.3
1,01,352
-15.8
11,55,041
-1.4
11,70,703
11.1
1,21,713
20.1
12,92,416
11.9
13,05,351
11.5
1,23,897
1.8
14,29,248
10.6
FY14
3,25,727
0.5
4,05,765
7.3
FY15
3,36,824
3.4
3,76,763
(7.1)
FY16
3,49,955
3.9
4,14,628
10.1
FY17E
3,59,539
2.7
4,31,213
4.0
FY18E
3,76,788
4.8
4,48,462
4.0
FY19E
4,03,227
7.0
4,66,400
4.0
Net Realisations
(Rs/vehicle)
Dom vehicle ASP
% YoY
Exports ASP
% YoY
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Change In Estimates
We maintain our estimates
for FY17/18E and introduce
FY19E numbers
In Rs mn
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
Adj EPS (in Rs)
New
FY17E
663,669
99,882
62,052
205
FY18E
782,595
122,665
81,242
269
Old
FY19E
902,866
153,188
100,168
332
FY17E
663,669
99,882
62,052
205
FY18E
782,595
122,665
81,242
269
% chg
FY19E
-
FY17E
-
FY18E
-
FY19E
-
Page | 3
6.0
2.0
60
40
(2.0)
21
23
21
21
20
20
21
24
26
6
16
7
14
6
12
17
17
15
16
17
6
17
18
19
21
20
22
23
23
22
23
30
28
28
28
27
27
28
28
27
2QFY15
2QFY17
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
(4.0)
20
Diesel
EBITDA/vehicle (Rs)
100%
2QFY17
4.0
Petrol
20%
30,000
8.0%
0%
20,000
6.0%
31
32
30
60%
68
70
2QFY17
69
1QFY17
72
4QFY16
72
3QFY16
72
2QFY16
68
1QFY16
68
4QFY15
68
3QFY15
70
2QFY15
40%
2QFY17
10.0%
28
1QFY17
40,000
28
4QFY16
12.0%
28
3QFY16
50,000
32
2QFY16
14.0%
32
1QFY16
60,000
32
4QFY15
16.0%
30
3QFY15
70,000
80%
2QFY15
18.0%
1QFY15
80,000
1QFY15
80
1QFY17
8.0
100
4QFY16
10.0
Entry-Sedans
MPV
3QFY16
12.0
Premium Hatch
UV
2QFY16
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Compact
Mid-size
1QFY16
4QFY15
Volume (% YoY)
1QFY15
3QFY15
Page | 4
44.5%
40
44.9%
44.0%
20
43.5%
21
23
21
21
20
20
21
24
26
6
16
7
14
6
12
17
17
15
16
17
6
17
18
19
21
20
22
23
23
22
23
30
28
28
28
27
27
28
28
27
2QFY15
0.70
0.58
0.59
0.62
0.65
P/E
Avg P/E
+ 1 SD
- 1 SD
28
26
24
22
0.40
20
0.30
18
0.20
16
14
0.10
12
Oct-16
Jun-16
Feb-16
Oct-15
Jun-15
Feb-15
Oct-14
10
Jun-14
2QFY17
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
Feb-14
0.60
2QFY15
2QFY17
1QFY17
4QFY16
3QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
2QFY15
43.0%
0.50
60
2QFY17
45.2%
46.2%
1QFY17
46.1%
45.5%
4QFY16
46.0%
3QFY16
80
45.9%
2QFY16
46.5%
100
Oct-13
46.6%
46.8%
Entry-Sedans
MPV
1QFY16
47.0%
Premium Hatch
UV
4QFY15
47.2%
47.5%
45.0%
Compact
Mid-size
47.7%
48.0%
3QFY15
3QFY15
Page | 5
Peer Valuations
Tata Motors
Maruti Suzuki
Bajaj Auto
M&M
Hero Motocorp
Eicher Motors
Ashok Leyland
Force Motors
SML Isuzu
Atul Auto
Mcap
(Rs bn)
CMP
(Rs/sh)
Reco
TP
1,773
1,770
799
768
662
664
242
59
18
10
522
5,860
2,762
1,300
3,314
24,492
85
4,422
1,269
474
BUY
BUY
NEU
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
625
6,606
2,716
1,615
3,731
28,463
91
4,952
1,588
569
FY16
80.1
38.1
21.9
23.4
21.1
41.7
21.7
32.3
49.7
21.9
P/E (x)
FY17E
11.1
28.5
19.8
18.6
18.4
36.4
20.3
28.1
35.9
18.2
FY18E
9.3
21.8
17.6
14.5
15.6
27.4
13.8
23.0
23.7
14.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
6.0
5.5
4.8
19.4
17.3
13.7
14.8
13.1
11.3
13.9
11.3
9.0
14.1
12.0
9.9
23.5
20.6
16.3
11.7
11.2
8.2
20.1
17.0
13.4
27.0
21.9
15.1
13.5
10.7
8.6
FY16
20.1
18.3
31.8
15.6
43.1
41.0
20.9
12.8
12.8
34.4
RoE (%)
FY17E
18.2
21.2
17.9
17.5
41.2
42.4
20.5
13.1
15.9
32.6
FY18E
18.2
23.7
30.8
19.8
41.5
37.5
26.7
14.1
21.0
32.3
Page | 6
FY15
FY16
FY18E
FY19E
1,510
1,510
1,510
1,510
2,35,532 2,69,661 3,12,837 3,68,590
2,37,042 2,71,171 3,14,347 3,70,100
5,156
774
774
774
5,156
774
774
774
4,809
4,741
4,741
4,741
16,530 21,365
27,506 35,242
2,63,538 2,98,051 3,47,367 4,10,858
1,510
445,480
446,990
774
774
4,741
34,148
486,653
1,22,593
23,540
98,176
20,509
2,64,818
26,150
10,698
3,697
30,147
70,692
62,557
9,415
71,972
(1,280)
2,63,538
157,232
19,853
172,128
40,629
389,842
39,578
29,683
3,842
157,156
230,259
102,696
30,751
133,447
96,812
486,653
1,17,894
19,853
1,69,128
29,062
3,35,936
31,321
12,986
2,592
10,221
57,120
70,133
24,872
95,005
(37,885)
2,98,051
FY17E
1,31,669
19,853
1,70,128
33,183
3,54,833
32,729
18,183
3,092
42,624
96,628
77,231
26,862
1,04,093
(7,465)
3,47,367
1,45,437
19,853
1,71,128
35,217
3,71,634
38,594
21,441
3,592
95,009
1,58,635
90,401
29,011
1,19,412
39,223
4,10,858
Page | 7
FY16
66,135
(785)
815
28,239
12,961
(19,704)
87,661
(19,853)
67,808
(70,952)
0
(90,805)
(4,382)
(815)
62,611
(12,370)
(17,567)
(20,711)
785
10,221
FY17E
83,854
155
30,078
4,002
(21,802)
96,287
(43,853)
52,434
(1,000)
(0)
(44,853)
(155)
52,280
(18,876)
(19,031)
32,403
42,624
FY18E
1,09,787
85
30,085
11,400
(28,545)
1,22,812
(43,853)
78,959
(1,000)
(0)
(44,853)
(85)
78,874
(25,489)
(25,574)
52,385
95,009
FY19E
1,35,364
85
33,058
(1,948)
(35,195)
1,31,364
(44,853)
86,511
(1,000)
0
(45,853)
(85)
86,426
(23,279)
(23,365)
62,147
1,57,156
PROFITABILITY (%)
GPM
EBITDA Margin
APAT Margin
RoE
RoIC (or Core RoCE)
RoCE
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate (%)
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (days)
Debtors (days)
Other Current Assets (days)
Payables (days)
Other Current Liab & Provns (days)
Cash Conversion Cycle (days)
Debt/EBITDA (x)
Net D/E (x)
Interest Coverage (x)
PER SHARE DATA (Rs)
EPS
CEPS
Dividend
Book Value
VALUATION
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Revenues (x)
OCF/EV (%)
FCF/EV (%)
FCFE/Mkt Cap (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
29.9
13.6
7.6
17.1
14.8
16.5
32.8
15.7
8.1
18.3
31.9
18.0
32.4
15.0
9.3
21.2
32.8
20.8
31.8
15.7
10.4
23.7
33.2
23.4
32.2
17.0
11.1
24.5
38.2
24.2
23.3
1.9
19.1
7.8
2.7
45.6
6.9
(22.9)
0.1
(0.1)
21.1
29.7
2.0
19.8
8.2
1.6
44.3
15.7
(30.4)
0.0
(0.0)
76.5
126.2
207.9
25.0
784.7
153.9
205.4
268.9
331.6
247.4
305.0
368.5
441.0
35.0
53.4
72.6
66.3
897.7 1,040.6 1,225.2 1,479.7
46.5
7.5
25.7
3.5
4.5
2.7
1.8
0.4
38.1
6.5
19.5
3.1
5.0
3.8
3.5
0.6
26.0
26.0
26.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
18.0
18.0
16.0
10.0
10.0
12.0
1.7
1.7
1.6
42.5
42.2
41.5
14.8
13.5
12.4
(27.5)
(26.0)
(24.4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(0.1)
(0.3)
(0.3)
450.9 1,087.4 1,411.0
28.6
5.6
17.3
2.6
5.6
3.0
2.9
0.9
21.8
4.8
13.7
2.1
7.3
4.7
4.4
1.2
17.7
4.0
10.6
1.8
8.1
5.4
4.9
1.1
Page | 8
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Maruti
Date
27-Oct-15
29-Jan-16
8-Apr-16
27-Apr-16
27-Jul-16
5-Oct-16
28-Oct-16
TP
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
CMP
4,497
4,103
3,471
3,872
4,558
5,861
5,860
Reco
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
Target
4,991
4,786
4,674
4,564
4,912
6,057
6,606
Rating Definitions
BUY
: Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL
: Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
Page | 9
Disclosure:
We, Abhishek Jain, MBA, & Sneha Prashant, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in
this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its
Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further
Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock No
Disclaimer:
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Institutional Equities
Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,
Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel,Mumbai - 400 013
Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com
Page | 10