IHS Analysis

Syrias Returning Fighters:

The Threat to Europe
IHS Janes Terrorism & Insurgency Centre

Increasing numbers of European

citizens have travelled to Syria to fight
for Islamist groups since the civil war
began there in 2011, with a relatively
diverse spectrum of fighters travelling
from a range of countries in order to
take part in the conflict.
In this report IHS examines the
potential threats that could face Europe
as a result of these fighters returning
from the conflict, and assesses the risk
of domestic attacks by newly
experienced militants.

Image PA

www.ihs.com

IHS Analysis

Syrias Returning Fighters: The Threat to Europe

This analysis is abridged. The full
analysis is available to IHS Janes
Terrorism & Insurgency Centre
subscribers.

Introduction
On 7 December 2013 Syrian militant
group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) posted
an announcement on its Facebook page
stating that a Luxembourg national using
the battlefield name Abu Huthaifa had
died in al-Safira, Aleppo governorate.
The news although unconfirmed in any
mainstream press marked a new
chapter in the history of global jihadism.
As the first national from Luxembourg
publicly known to have died fighting
alongside jihadist groups in Syria, he
became another first in a war that is
rapidly eclipsing all previous jihadist
battlefields. For European security
officials who are increasingly concerned
about the conflict, 2013 marked a new
high in a trend that had been rising since
2012.
In its annual report on terrorist trends in
Europe, the EU Terrorism Situation and
Trend Report (TE-SAT) 2013, the
European Police Office (Europol)
reported that, in 2012, there was a
distinct rise in the number of EU citizens
travelling to Syria, in a number of cases
fighting alongside groups associated with
religiously inspired terrorism.
In 2013, this trend accelerated further,
with an assessment published by
researcher Aaron Zelin of Kings College
London suggesting that over the period
from April to December 2013 the number
of Europeans heading to fight in Syria

www.ihs.com/jtic

had almost tripled, and could total

between 5,000 to 10,000.
More worryingly, in 2013, further
evidence started to emerge suggesting
that the return of these fighters home
may have increased terrorist threats in
Europe.

Jihadist profiles
Little is known about Abu Huthaifa. The
brief statement posted about him on
JeMs Facebook page indicated that he
had entered Syria through Turkey and
that he might be as young as 18 years
old; beyond this, he was a young
Caucasian wearing traditional army garb.
However, in his portrait there are a
number of features observed among the
European contingent fighting in Syria.
Over the period from April to December 2013
the number of Europeans heading to fight in
Syria almost tripled

First, the lack of clarity about his ethnicity

reflects the broad background of the
European foreign fighter contingent in
Syria. Unlike the civil conflict in Libya,
which seemed to draw mostly (but not
only) Libyan Europeans to fight, the civil
war in Syria has attracted Europeans of
various ethnic backgrounds, from Arabs
and South Asians to converts of every
ethnicity.
A review of available information about
foreign fighters in Syria reveals that the
broad base of fighters in the country
reflects the ethnic breakdown of Muslims
across Europe. According to the 2011
UK census, the majority of Muslims in

IHS Analysis

Syrias Returning Fighters: The Threat to Europe

the UK are of South Asian origin.
Citizens of that origin equally represent
the largest contingent of British foreign
fighters in Syria.
Europeans of multiple ethnicities with
distinct national accents appear in videos
recorded by jihadist groups on the
battlefield. One video discovered in early
June 2013, which purported to have
been taken in March, showed a group
including Dutch-speaking individuals
beheading someone identified as a
Syrian government supporter, with at
least one of those involved speaking
Flemish.
Other videos to emerge actively
encourage individuals to join the fighting
in their native languages: English by a
Briton of seemingly African origin talking
by the side of the road as he loads a
pistol; Swedish by Swedes of Arab
origin; Danish; French; and other
languages.
German authorities have grown
increasingly concerned about the activity
of a 38-year-old former rapper, Denis
Mamadou Cuspert. A Ghanaian-German
convert, he was known by his stage
name Deso Dogg or his battlefield kunya
(an honorific title) Abu Talha al-Almani.
Prominent for his radical views in
Germany before going to Syria, Cuspert
has become the face of German jihad in
Syria, releasing videos of himself rapping
and calling on others to join the fight. It is
unknown whether or not he is still alive.
Second, Abu Huthaifas age reflects the
fact that jihad in Syria remains primarily
attractive to the younger demographic,
with a large number of teenagers in

www.ihs.com/jtic

particular drawn to the fight. In October,

Burkhard Freier, head of the North
Rhine-Westphalia branch of the German
domestic intelligence agency Bundesamt
fr Verfassungsschutz (BfV), told the
ZDF (Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen)
television network that his service had
observed adolescents who departed for
Syria in order to fight there.
In September, he reported that a group
of more than 20 young German Muslims
had gone from Germany to Turkey and
onwards to Syria. Among the group there
were five teenagers, including a 15-yearold.
In December, the minister of the interior
of the German federal state of Hesse,
Boris Rhein, highlighted a study
commissioned by his ministry, which
suggested that of 23 males who had
gone to fight in Syria, nine were still at
school.
In Norway, a pair of Somali-born sisters
aged 16 and 19 declared in an email to
their parents, Something needs to be
done [about Syria]. We want to help the
Muslims, and the only way to do so is to
be with them in their pains and their joy.
The girls father tracked them down in
Syria, but failed to persuade them to
return.
In Belgium, the worried parents of two
teenagers Jejoen Bontinck and Brian
de Mulder separately spoke to the
international media in March and April of
2013, expressing their concerns about
their sons, who had gone to fight in
Syria.
However, the spectrum of fighters also
includes those who are middle-aged.

IHS Analysis

Syrias Returning Fighters: The Threat to Europe

Abdal Munem Mustafa Halima (also
known as Abu Basir al-Tartusi) a
London-based extremist preacher,
believed to be in his 50s and originally
from Syria emerged in videos
published online by the group Ansar alSham in October 2012, seemingly
addressing crowds in Latakia.
In February 2013, reports emerged that
Slimane Hadj Abderrahmane, a 39-yearold former Guantnamo Bay camp
detainee, had died fighting four months
after arriving in Syria. Abderrahmane
was born in Denmark. At the age of
seven he moved to Algeria with his
family and then returned to Denmark in
his late teens. Formerly a popular techno
DJ, he became concerned by the
suffering of Muslims around the world
and trained in Afghanistan. In February
2002, he was captured and handed over
to the US forces, which held him in the
Guantnamo Bay detention camp for two
years before releasing him to Denmark,
where he wrote a book about his
experiences, protested against Danish
support of American foreign policy, and
was imprisoned for credit card fraud.
The reason for Abderrahmanes decision
to go to Syria was unclear, with the
Facebook group Islamisk Budskab
(Islamic Message), which posted news of
his death, merely saying that he packed
his backpack, said goodbye to his wife
and children, and gone off [sic] to
Kastrup Airport [Copenhagen Airport].
However, the average age of foreign
jihadists seems to be somewhere
between the mid-teens and middle age.
In his detailed public records study of 18
Swedish nationals who had fought in

www.ihs.com/jtic

Syria, Swedish researcher and journalist

Per Gudmundson found that the fighters
average age was 23.5 years. The results
of this study were published in the
September 2013 edition of the New York
City Combating Terrorism Centers
(CTC) monthly publication CTC Sentinel.
In June 2013, Belgian minister of the
interior Jolle Milquet stated that the
average age of Belgian nationals fighting
in Syria was between 23 and 25 years
old. A BBC radio File on Four
programme from October quoted UK
officials who told Shiraz Maher, a
researcher at the International Centre for
the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR) at
Kings College London, that the average
age of Britons going to fight was in their
20s. Public data and specific instances
across Europe suggest that the majority
of those reported to be fighting in Syria
are in their 20s, with a few more
seasoned fighters in their 30s.
Although the overwhelming majority of those
travelling to Syria are men, there is evidence of
young women also going to the battlefield

Moreover, although the overwhelming

majority of those travelling to Syria are
men, there has been some evidence of
young women also going to the
battlefield, though it remains unclear
what roles they perform. The case of the
teenage Norwegian sisters has already
been mentioned, and a report for the
UKs Channel 4 television channel from
July also highlighted the case of British
citizens Maryam and Aisha. The two
women were living with their husbands,

IHS Analysis

Syrias Returning Fighters: The Threat to Europe

who were fighting alongside the Sunni
militia Katiba al Muhajireen in Syria.

who go to Syria also take on frontline

roles.

Having converted to Islam four years

before, Maryam decided to move to Syria
in early 2013, where she met her
Swedish-Arab husband. Aisha moved to
Syria with her British husband, and the
two families lived in the same building
near the Syrian frontlines. According to
the documentary, the men fought
together, while the women stayed behind
to look after their children.

Travel and recruitment

There are more such cases of married

partners moving to Syria. A report in the
Bosnian press published in December
highlighted the case of approximately 10
married couples who had gone to Syria,
with some of them taking children who
were as young as three months old.

A third element that Abu Huthaifas case

highlights is the method of travelling to
Syria. Having entered the country
through Turkey, his case reveals the
main route used by European foreign
fighters to the battlefield. In most cases,
individuals travel to Turkey and from
there cross the porous border into Syria,
where they connect with Islamist groups
on the ground.

Although many women appear to adopt

domestic roles, some have died on the
battlefield. In late May, the Syrian
government published pictures of what
purported to be the passport of a British
man, an American woman, and a third
individual killed in a car outside Idlib in
the northwest.
It transpired that the British man was in
fact alive, because he had handed over
his passport to his handlers, who then
gave it to someone else a typical
practice for foreign fighters in Syria.
The American woman was identified as
Nicole Lynn Mansfield, a 33-year-old
convert whose death was confirmed by
the US Federal Bureau of Investigation
(FBI). The details of her case remain
unclear, but Mansfields death
demonstrated that some foreign females

www.ihs.com/jtic

Sometimes it is done by road under the

auspices of aid convoys from Europe.
The convoys often carry genuine medical
supplies or other essential goods and are
driven by individuals who have raised
money with a genuine intent to hand it
over to refugees. Yet often unwittingly,
the convoys also transport individuals
who seek to join jihadist groups in Syria.
As a result, border authorities at the UK
port of Dover frequently stop and search
suspicious individuals in convoys under

IHS Analysis

Syrias Returning Fighters: The Threat to Europe

Schedule 7 on port and border controls
of the UK Terrorism Act 2000.
Others fly into Turkey (sometimes on
unused package holidays), using the
countrys well-connected main cities as
points of entry from where they travel to
the Syrian border by internal transport. In
other instances, individuals take
circuitous routes across Europe, driving
to a smaller European airport to then
take a flight to Turkey. Some go through
North African countries such as Egypt
and then take flights on to Lebanon or
Turkey.

The fourth element of Abu Huthaifas

profile becomes salient once he arrived
in the country. Given that his biography
was posted on a Facebook page that is
managed by a group close to one of AlQaedas affiliates the Islamic State of
Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) it seems
likely that he was serving alongside this
group. According to Zelins study, only
20% of subjects reported group
affiliation; the two primary Al-Qaeda
affiliates on the battlefield, based on their
responses, were ISIL and Jabhat alNusra.

A senior Turkish official at a presentation

in London in late October 2013 reported
that Turkish authorities had prevented
several hundred individuals from
crossing the border into Syria. However,
given the reported number of European
fighters on the ground, which could be in
the low thousands, this highlights the
porosity of the border.

Nevertheless, although these groups

attract many of the foreign fighters, they
are not the only ones that draw
Europeans to their ranks. Numerous
other groups also count on European
members, including Jund al-Sham,
Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya,
Jaish al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar, and Jund
al-Khilafah.

Many of those travelling to fight in Syria appear to

have previously been involved in domestic terrorist
or criminal activities

According to media reports from early

December, Turkey informed its European
partners that during 2013 it had arrested
and deported approximately 1,110 EU
citizens who had arrived in Turkey with
the intention of joining jihadist groups in
Syria; requests for their detention had
been received from other countries or the
sharing of intelligence through the
International Criminal Police
Organization (Interpol).

www.ihs.com/jtic

From a threat perspective, those subgroups affiliated with Al-Qaeda are of the
greatest concern as their rhetoric and
approach hardly differ, and it is likely that
a number of plots have been initiated by
groups associated with them.
It is currently unclear how actively those
groups are recruiting for the battlefield in
Syria, or whether individuals are being
drawn there by a compelling news
narrative that attracts them to fight. It
appears that extremist groups operating
camps on the ground in Syria have a
vetting system, as prospective jihadists
often need to have a group connection
back home to support them as they
travel to the battlefield. Volunteers are
usually expected to pay substantial

IHS Analysis

Syrias Returning Fighters: The Threat to Europe

amounts of money for their training and
are required to hand over their
documents upon arrival in Syria. These
are often circulated among other
individuals in the group for use as false
identification.
Many of those travelling to Syria also
appear to be individuals who have
previously been involved in a terrorist act
or criminal investigations in their home
countries. Their exact number is not
available, but many media reports
suggest that such individuals have
criminal records for either extremism or
common criminality. Per Gudmundsons
study of Swedish fighters indicated that
at least eight out of the 18 subjects had
criminal records.
Those connected to recognised radical
movements include a group in Bosnia
that was linked to Mevludin Jaarevic,
who opened fire at the US embassy in
Sarajevo in October 2011; and the
extremist Belgian group
Shariah4Belgium, which was associated
with a number of cases of radicalisation
of individuals who went to fight in Syria.
In Europols TE-SAT 2013, the agency
specifically identified Shariah4Belgium
as contributing to the radicalisation and
engagement of EU citizens in the Syrian
conflict.

Returnee threat
Shariah4Belgium has become notorious
among European affiliates of the British
group al-Muhajiroun initially
established in 1996 in the UK by nowexcluded preacher Omar Bakri
Mohammed and is currently overseen by
preacher Anjem Choudary because of

www.ihs.com/jtic

allegations in the Belgian press that

individuals connected to
Shariah4Belgium in Syria had been
recorded threatening attacks in Europe.
For example, a Facebook message was
sent to Dutch-language Belgian
newspaper Het Laatste Nieuws listing a
series of targets in Antwerp and Brussels
to be attacked on 31 December 2013.
In July 2012, one of the leaders of
Shariah4Belgium, 22-year-old Houssien
Elouassaki, was sentenced to 200 hours
of community service in Belgium for
insults, threats, and racist comments to
a police officer. He failed to serve his
sentence and subsequently fled to Syria,
where he became the leader of a group
of approximately 35-40 Belgians who
were connected with Jabhat al-Nusra.
In April 2013, Elouassakis younger
brother Hakim returned home from Syria
to Vilvoorde, Belgium, having been
seriously injured. Houssien was killed
fighting in Syria on 13 September,
according to sources quoted in the
Belgian press. Based on reports in
Belgian media verified by official
sources, Houssien was overheard talking
about wanting to attack the Palais de
Justice in Brussels. Whether or not these
threats were anywhere near becoming
actual plots remains unclear.
A far more dangerous militant cell was
discovered in Kosovo in early November.
Kosovar authorities conducted
operations in the cities of Pristina and
Gjilan, arresting six ethnic Albanians. A
seventh suspect escaped. Two of the
men were alleged to have attacked a pair
of American Mormon missionaries in
Pristina on 3 November, and those group

IHS Analysis

Syrias Returning Fighters: The Threat to Europe

members were arrested as they tried to
purchase weapons from undercover
officers. The status of legal proceedings
against those detained was unknown at
the time of going to press.
According to the authorities briefing with
the Associated Press, the investigation
into the cell had apparently lasted three
months, and following the interception of
a telephone call in which group members
were heard discussing a possible attack
in an unnamed European country, the
group was arrested. According to officials
talking to the press at the time, two of the
detainees had fought in Syria, and the
broader cell was linked to a wider
community of radicals who had been
travelling back and forth to Syria.
Far more mature than the threats
emanating from the Belgian group, the
Kosovo plot was of the type with links to
Syria that concerns European security
services, namely, individuals with
battlefield experience and access to
weapons who return home with the intent
to carry out an attack. Kosovar
authorities reported that following the
arrests they received threats and
demands to release the detainees,
identified in the Serbian press as a group
known as Jihad of Kosovo. An
estimated 150 Albanians are believed by
Kosovar authorities to be fighting in
Syria.
Despite the apparent severity of the
Albanian threat, the most serious
warnings are increasingly coming from
the UK. The director general of the
Security Service (MI5), Andrew Parker,
and the head of the Counter-Terrorism
Command (CTC), or SO15, at the

www.ihs.com/jtic

Metropolitan Police, Commander Richard

Walton, have spoken of the fact that the
jihad in Syria is increasingly becoming a
security threat beyond its borders.
In a speech on 8 October, Parker
highlighted that MI5 noted a substantial
increase in cases with connections to
Syria. According to Parker, a growing
proportion of our casework now has
some link to Syria, mostly concerning
individuals from the UK who have
travelled to fight there or who aspire to
do so.
He also spoke of how MI5 judged that
[Jabhat] al-Nusra and other extremist
Sunni groups there aligned with AlQaeda aspire to attack Western
countries.
This threat was brought into sharper
domestic focus in December, when
Walton told an audience in London that
his officers were starting to see signs
that Britons were returning from Syria
tasked with carrying out attacks back at
home.
The assessment of an expanding threat
from the European contingent in Syria
was also emphasised in December by
Belgian authorities, who stated that they
were assessing a group of Dutchspeaking Belgian jihadists who had
participated in an attack in Iraq. A source
from the Belgian police believed that the
leaders of the Syrian networks are
determined to export in time to
Morocco and Tunisia the fighting
capacity that is now assembled in Syria.
The Belgian officials were also quoted as
saying that Al-Qaeda has four to five
thousand jihadist combatants at hand

IHS Analysis

Syrias Returning Fighters: The Threat to Europe

deployed in Syria who have passports
from a Schengen area country. This is a
very high figure that exceeds most public
assessments provided by European
security officials so far.

Outlook
There is a rising level of concern among
security officials across Europe
consulted by IHS about the threat
emanating from Syria, and the plots
highlighted to date likely represent only
the beginning of a threat that will evolve
over the coming years.

only increase the longer the conflict

continues.

This analysis is abridged. The full

analysis is available to IHS Janes
Terrorism & Insurgency Centre
subscribers.

Although it is by no means the case that

every individual returning from Syria will
pose a domestic threat or will launch an
attack, the high number of European
jihadist fighters in Syria means that a
threat of some sort is likely to emerge.
Moreover, a protraction of Syrias civil
war would mean more individuals would
be drawn to the battlefield, therefore
increasing the pool of potential jihadist
recruits who could be a threat back at
home.
Indeed, the gravity of the situation was
highlighted by a US Central Intelligence
Agency (CIA) assessment reported in
The Wall Street Journal on 31 December
that drew on analysis of previous
insurgencies, concluding that the civil
war in Syria could last another decade
or more.
The foreign fighter contingent in Syria is
likely to match this timescale and is
therefore also likely to be at the heart of
Europes militant threat for the next five
years at least a period of time that will

www.ihs.com/jtic

IHS Analysis

Syrias Returning Fighters: The Threat to Europe

About IHS
IHS (NYSE: IHS) is a leading source of
information and insight in pivotal areas
that shape todays business
landscape: energy, economics,
geopolitical risk, sustainability and
supply chain management.
Businesses and governments around
the globe rely on the comprehensive
content, expert independent analysis
and flexible delivery methods of IHS to
make high-impact decisions and
develop strategies with speed and
confidence.
IHS has been in business since 1959
and became a publicly traded
company on the New York Stock
Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in
Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS
employs more than 8,000 people in
more than 31 countries around the
world.
ihs.com

About IHS Aerospace, Defence &

Security
With a legacy of over 100 years as
Janes, IHS is the most trusted and
respected public source of defence
and security information in the world.
With a reputation built on products
such as IHS Janes Fighting Ships,
IHS Janes All the Worlds Aircraft and
IHS Janes Defence Weekly, IHS
delivers comprehensive, credible and
reliable information, insight and
analysis across all key defence and
security subject areas, in support of
critical business, military and security
processes.
IHS Janes Terrorism & Insurgency
Centre delivers unmatched access to
reliable independent data and insight
on non-state armed groups, events
and risk factors, enabling national
security organisations to understand
the terrorist threat landscape.
ihs.com/jtic

www.ihs.com/jtic

10