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MIT Probability TUT and solutions

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After one-pair, the next most common hands are two-pair and three-of-a-kind:

Two-pair: Two cards have one rank, two cards have another rank, and

the remaining card has a third rank. e.g. {2, 2, 5, 5, K}

Three-of-a-kind: Three cards have one rank and the remaining two cards

have two other ranks. e.g. {2, 2, 2, 5, K}

Calculate the probability of each type of hand. Which is more likely?

Problem 2. (10 pts.) Non-transitive dice.

In class we worked with non-transitive dice:

Red: 3 3 3 3 3 6; Green: 1 4 4 4 4 4; White: 2 2 2 5 5 5.

Finish making your non-transitive dice.

(a) In class you found the probability that red beats white. Find the probability that

white beats green and the probability that green beats red.

Can you line the dice up in order from best to worst? (Hint: this is why these are

called non-transitive.)

(b) Suppose you roll two white dice against two red dice. What is the probability

that the sum of the white dice is greater than the sum of the red dice?

For hints on this problem and ways to make money with your dice, watch at least

the rst six minutes of the following video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWUrwhaqq_c

Here a tree is used to organize the calculation rather than a table. We will discuss

this method in Week 2.

Problem 3. (20 pts.) Birthdays: counting and simulation.

Ignoring leap days, the days of the year can be numbered 1 to 365. Assume that

birthdays are equally likely to fall on any day of the year. Consider a group of n

people, of which you are not a member. An element of the sample space will be a

sequence of n birthdays (one for each person).

(a) Dene the probability function P for ..

(b) Consider the following events:

A: someone in the group shares your birthday

B: some two people in the group share a birthday

C: some three people in the group share a birthday

Carefully describe the subset of that corresponds to each event.

(c) Find an exact formula for P (A). What is the smallest n such that P (A) > .5?

without doing any computation. (We are looking

2

for a short answer giving a heuristic sense of why this is so.)

(e) Use R simulation to estimate the smallest n for which P (B) > .9. For these

simulations, let the number of trials be 10000.

For this value of n, repeat the simulation a few times to verify that it always gives

similar results.

Using 10000 trials you saw very little variation in the estimate of P (B). Try this again

using 30 trials and verify that the estimated probabilities are much more variable.

(f ) Find an exact formula for P (B).

(g) Use R simulation to estimate the smallest n for which P (C) > .5. Again use

10000 trials. You will nd that two values of n are equally plausible values. You may

pick either one for your answer.

Note that it is much harder to nd an exact formula for P (C), so simulation is

especially handy.

(h) In real life, some birthdays are more common than others. Click on the rst

graph here to see the data:

http://chmullig.com/2012/06/births-by-day-of-year/

As you should read, the author simulated the birthday problem using the real-life

probabilities of dierent birthdays. He found that, for a xed number of people, the

probability of a match is slightly higher in real-life than in the equal-probability model

above. Why is this plausible? Hint: Lucky Larry. (Again, we want a short answer.)

MIT OpenCourseWare

http://ocw.mit.edu

Spring 2014

For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.

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