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[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] July 1, 2010
Early Evening Market Review for Thursday
Oil prices were down dramatically again yesterday, and heating oil
prices have lost more than 20 cents in four days, so far, this week. We
had a change in contract over the period, so it got lost in the switch, but
the total of the lost points so far is 20.63 cents. Gasoline prices have lost
17 cents this week, and August is down 16.12 cents a gallon. August
crude has lost almost $6.00 this week, up through Thursday.
Fundamentally, these declines seem a long time in the making.
Distillate inventories are 32% higher than they were two years ago, and
crude oil inventories are 21% higher. Cushing crude oil stocks are 72%
higher than they were two years ago.
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CAMERON HANOVER
[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] July 1, 2010
More than anything else, though, it seems that prices were reacting to the latest economic numbers, which
have been disappointing. Pending home sales were down 30%. It was the biggest drop in this measure since
records started being kept in 2001. Bloomberg’s survey of economists had shown an average expectation of a
14% decline.
And the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported its gauge of manufacturing activity at 56.2 in June,
down from 59.7 in May. Capital Economics noted that “the index is still consistent with annual GDP growth of
4% or so,” but CE noted that the markets were looking at a number of other factors in the US, China and
Europe. It seemed yesterday that there were worries in all three areas of potential growth.
The euro was the only market that had a strong day on Thursday, but oil did not seem to have much
interest. Up until the arrival of Alex, oil prices had been following currencies more closely than just about
anything else. For a number of weeks, oil prices
seemed to be living and dying with every rise and fall
of the European currency. For whatever reason,
that was clearly over by Thursday.
Investors were talking about a weakening US
economy, and they were selling the US dollar as a
result. This struck us as odd, because for quite a
while, a stronger stock market always seemed to be
accompanied by a bearish move in the US dollar.
This time out, the stock market and the dollar were
both lower at the same time.
The chart at the left shows the US dollar in
euros. After forming what looked like a base for a
shot higher to test its recent highs against the euro,
the dollar in facr collapsed. It has typically been
seen as a safe haven to park money, so we were
surprised to see it doing so badly yesterday, even as
the normal risk asserts were getting hammered. For weeks, the biggest concerns had been for Europe, with its
sovereign debt worries. Yesterday’s disappointing economic data raised fresh worries over the prospects for
US growth.
The DJIA dropped 41.49 points on Thursday to 9732.53 to complete what was a dreadful day all around.
On Friday, the US Labor Department releases its June jobs figures. They could be the final nails … .
Crude Oil Daily Technical Chart
Crude oil prices were lower again on Thursday, falling in response to weak economic data.
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