Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
2 July 2010
Danske Daily
Key news
Market movers today: Today
Weak US economic data sends US equities, commodities and the dollar sliding ahead
of the labour market data today. US labour market report [Tex
DKK currency reserves
Mixed session in Asian markets this morning as Australia reaches an agreement on a
mining tax. Speech by ECB’s Stark
DKK currencies released this afternoon – are we in for a surprise given the recent
weakening of DKK against EUR? Market overview
07:30 1 day +/-,%
the S&P500 declining some 0.9% as the ISM followed the pattern we saw in China and 17:00 07:30 +/-, bp
Euroland, while jobless claims rose more than expected and finally pending home sales in US 2y gov 0.61 0.63 2.4
US 10y gov 2.88 2.95 6.4
the US fell much more than expected. The weaker economic outlook also led to a decline
in commodity prices. iTraxx Europe (IG) 126 131 4.8
iTraxx Xover (Non IG) 497 587 90
However, it has been a mixed session in the Asian market as the Australian government +/-, %
has reached an agreement on a mining tax with the mining industry. This was the tax that EUR/USD 1.246 1.250 0.31
USD/JPY 87.090 87.920 0.95
ousted the Australian PM Rudd and led to the first female PM in Australia. This removes EUR/CHF 1.33 1.33 0.07
EUR/GBP 0.824 0.825 0.13
a lot of uncertainty on the growth prospects for Australia and we have seen the Aussie EUR/SEK 9.623 9.608 -0.15
dollar gain this morning and some modest gains in a range of stock market indices in the EUR/NOK 8.09 8.03 -0.66
region. Otherwise a number of indices have followed the US market as Goldman Sachs USD
Oil Brent, USD 71.6 72.7 1.61
cut its economic forecast for China and Bank of China will sell shares for up to USD9bn Gold, USD 1221.0 1207.0 -1.15
in order to replenish capital. This has led to the Hang Seng falling 1.3% this morning. Note:
* The iTraxx Europe Index shows the spread
Despite the weakness in the equity markets, US bond yields increased very modestly. development for the most liquid investment grade CDS
contracts in the euro credit market.
10Y Treasury yields rose 1bp but remained below the 3% level, but the curve continued
to flatten between 2Y and 10Y partly as the growth story loses momentum and investors **The iTraxx Europe Crossover shows the spread
development of the most liquid non-investment grade
are moving further out on the yield curve in order to get a higher yield. CDS contracts in the euro credit market.
Source: Bloomberg
In the FX markets the dollar weakened against the euro and yen on the back of the
economic data and a better-than-expected auction by the Spanish Debt Office yesterday.
EUR/USD moved all the way back above the 125 level yesterday, and has remained there
in Asian trading this morning. The dollar has rebounded modestly against the yen, but is
still below the 88 level this morning. SEK weakened against the euro and moved up to
8.62 after the Riksbank meeting as the tone in the monetary policy report was softer than
expected and as equities declined yesterday. This morning it has rebounded a little and is
trading at 8.60. The weakness in the SEK has spilled over to NOK, which is again above
8.00.
Chief Analyst
Jens Peter Sørensen
+45 45128517
Jenssr@Danskebank.dk
www.danskeresearch.com
Danske Daily
Global Daily
Focus today: The main event today is the US employment report for June. We estimate
Strong trend in Euro zone IP
that the headline is likely to show a decline of -100K as the recent months of positive
600 '000 m/m '000 m/m 600
impact from census hiring reverses. However, the market will focus on the private sector 400 400
employment, which we expect to increase by +150K versus +41K in previous month. 200 200
0 0
Some of this is likely to reflect a payback from previous months, when the census hiring -200 -200
most likely crowded out private job creation. The unemployment rate is expected to hold -400
Change in private nonfarm payrolls
-400
-600 -600
steady at 9.7% -800 -800
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Fixed income markets: 2yr Schatz continued to underperform yesterday. Despite the
larger-than-expected allotment at the six-day fine-tuning operation, EONIA rates rose and Source: Reuters Ecowin
pushed the yield on Schatz higher. With the downward pressure on long-bond from
weaker economic data and declining risk appetite continuing, the German 2-10 curve has
US S&P500 future
flattened dramatically. Further, 2yr Schatz yield is now trading above 2yr Treasuries,
which seems fundamentally wrong given the relative outlook for the ECB and the Fed.
1087 1087
Today focus will be on the labour market report. If the private payrolls either meets or 1067 1067
beats the consensus estimate, this should help to stabilise the markets and could even send 1047 1047
bond yields higher. 1027 1027
1007 1007
FX markets: Yesterday saw the EUR bounce back to trade at levels above 1.24 vs. the Wed Thu Mon Tue Wed Fri
USD, despite nervous trading, as the EUR received support from a decent Spanish debt Source: Danske Markets
auction and the ECB managing a reduction of its liquidity provision without adding to
market tensions. EUR/USD currently seems to be reacting to negative US data surprises
US 10y gov yield
(ISM, IJC, consumer confidence) through the outlook for relative interest rates (higher
EUR/USD) rather than the impact on risk appetite (lower EUR/USD). In that respect, an
3.15 3.15
upside surprise in today’s US employment report might reverse some of the EUR’s recent
3.05 3.05
gains.
2.95 2.95
2.85 2.85
Denmark: Currency reserves for June are due to be released in the afternoon. Here we Source: Danske Markets
look for a modest decline as we have seen DKK weaken against EUR on the back of all
the focus on lending in CHF by Danish corporate client and municipalities.
Global FX
Norway: Unemployment data released today. Not expected to have any impact on the EUR/USD (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS)
91
market. 1.255
90
89
1.235
88
9.49 7.88
Wed Thu Mon Tue Wed Fri
2| 2 July 2010
www.danskeresearch.com
Danske Daily
FX & COMMODITIES
O il,
EUR/USD Intraday E UR 17:00 07:30 +/- G o ld, $ B re nt , $
125.5 125.5
USD 124.59 124.98 0.39 07:30 1206.96 72.74
124.6 124.6 JP Y 108.52 109.89 1.37 1day 8.02 0.40
Max ## GB P 82.35 82.46 0.11 1mo nth -16.49 -1.01
123.7 123.7
Min ## NOK 808.62 803.32 -5.30 Year-t-date 110.01 -5.19
122.8
0.9 122.8
SEK 962.29 960.83 -1.46
DKK 744.93 744.90 -0.03 CRB C R B , R aw
121.9 121.9 P LN 417.04 415.63 -1.41 1M f ut ure Indus t ria ls
07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 US D 17:00 07:30 +/- 07:30 256.21 474.74
JP Y 87.09 87.92 0.83 1day -2.31 -0.71
1mo nth 2.49 GB P 151.29 151.56 0.27 1mo nth 3.27 -2.02
Year-to -date -18.23 CHF 106.39 106.13 -0.26 Year-t-date -27.17 -8.75
3| 2 July 2010
www.danskeresearch.com
Danske Daily
Disclosure
This research report has been prepared by Danske Research, which is part of Danske Markets, a division of
Danske Bank. Danske Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority
Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high
quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in the Danske
Bank Research Policy. Employees within the Danske Bank Research Departments have been instructed that any
request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management
and to the Compliance Officer. Danske Bank Research departments are organised independently from and do not
report to other Danske Bank business areas. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the over-all
profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other
remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions.
Danske Bank research reports are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Investment Professionals’
Ethical rules and the Recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association.
Risk warning
Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis
of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text.
Expected updates
This publication is updated on a daily basis.
Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared by Danske Markets for information purposes only. It has been prepared
independently, solely from publicly available information and does not take into account the views of Danske
Bank’s internal credit department. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial
instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no
representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from
reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or
short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned
herein. The Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their
research sector. This publication is not intended for retail customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske
Markets is a division of Danske Bank A/S. Danske Bank A/S is authorized by the Danish Financial Supervisory
Authority and is subject to provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where Danske Bank A/S
conducts operations. Moreover Danske Bank A/S is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services
Authority (UK). Details on the extent of our regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us
on request. Copyright (C) Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and
may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
This publication has been prepared by the correspondent of Auerbach Grayson & Company Incorporated
(“AGC”) named above on the date listed above.
We are distributing this publication in the U.S. and any U.S. person receiving this report and wishing to effect
transactions in any security discussed herein, should do so only with a representative of Auerbach Grayson &
Company Incorporated. Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.
4| 2 July 2010
www.danskeresearch.com