Faraz Butte

January 25, 2017

Research Proposal

In 1999, a 7.6 earthquake struck the city of Izmit in northwestern Turkey,

killing almost 20,000 people and leaving 600,000 people homeless. Poor
construction quality, a lack of strict building codes, and rampant corruption all lead
to the magnification of the destruction of the quake. Izmit is roughly 60 miles west
of Istanbul, Turkeys largest city, and the event revealed that the North Anatolian
Fault line was not a series of small faults, but rather one continuous 1,000 mile long
east-west line1. Since 1939, there have been seven earthquakes above 7.0 on the
Richter scale marching westward. The fault line, which is only a few miles south of
the city, has been predicted to have a 70% chance of rupturing within the next 30
years, which along with the subsequent tsunami, would devastate the city of 15
million people.2
Since 1999, the size of Istanbul has skyrocketed from 8.5 million to 15 million,
with estimates that the city could reach nearly 20 million by 2020. Massive urban
sprawl has been following by large public works projects, which include over 110
miles of subway lines, a third bridge across the Bosphorus, two tunnels under the
Bosphorus (plus one more in the planning stages), along with hundreds of viaducts,
gated communities, and skyscrapers. Most new developments have been advertised
as being able to withstand earthquakes of magnitude 8.0, with some developers
claiming their structures can withstand 10.0. Istanbul also suffers from the worst
traffic congestion in the world, with many high density neighborhoods of unplanned
growth.
Given the warnings of seismologists about the impending quake, has the city
taken the necessary precautions to ensure minimal loss of life and buildings? Has
the loss of natural resources (water tables and forested land) set the city up for
another ecological disaster?

View of Istanbul from the Sea of Marmara, facing northwest.

1 https://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/10/1/article/i1052-5173-10-1-1.htm

2 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2006/dec/09/turkey.naturaldisasters